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Link Posted: 12/31/2010 10:20:06 AM EDT
[#1]
Quoted:
SPEC ACCOUNT:

Sold C for profit.

Bought ZSL expecting a pullback in silver around Nov 2 & 3.

After SLV pullback in Nov, I will sell ZSL and go back into AIB markets depending.


AIB scares me to death...I believe it is due to be nationalized and the shares delisted as part of the agreement.

I'm watching IRE...though I don't have any skin in that game.

Wouldn't mind picking up some of those shares on a dip.

Still extremely high risk.

Watching LVS as well...entry point for me would be around $41-ish.
Their Macao property is raking it in.
Marina-Bay Sands is coming online and is also doing extremely well.
Betting that the next 8K earnings report will be pretty good.
LVS is a high-beta though...not for the faint of heart.
Link Posted: 1/1/2011 7:32:39 AM EDT
[#2]
Quoted:
So I have a question for the hive-mind with respect to BCPC.
Four out of the last five years it has had a 3/2 split occurring in late January.

Typically when a stock splits it takes a hit to reflect the change in the float.
Each time this stock has split is has bounced back rather quickly.

Seems like an 80% probability of making a cool 50% in a couple of months or less.
Am I deluding myself here or what?

Disclosure:  long 2000 shares since it formed a nice base off of its 200-day in late August.


I looked at this and my comments are as follows:

1- If that's the only stock you own, you may want to consider breaking that up into 5-10 different stocks in different sectors, as this is overweight and if the company runs into problems, you could suffer catastrophic loss.  Just look to the shareholders of ENRON for a sobering example. If you work for this company and are issued stock, you most definitely need to break it up if it constitutes the bulk of your 401k.  The employees of ENRON not only saw their gains evaporate as ENRON collapsed; they also were out of a job, a double whammy of epic proportions.  Watch the CNBC special that comes on periodically about this.
––––––Companies are run by humans - shit happens.
––––––Dilute/spread the risk around so you don't wake up to disaster one day.  Maybe it will never happen with this company, but you always should mitigate and manage risk.  Risk is OK; just don't put all eggs in one basket, no matter how solid the underlying company appears to be.

2- I looked at their dividend and splits.  Most of what they pay out is in the increase in stock value, which is OK.  They also pay small cash dividend.  I went back ten years and they never split back to back, so it's likely they will only pay a dividend in Dec 2011 with no split, so not much happening here for 2011.  

3- Their long term chart shows a steady climber, which is favorable.

3- Volume.  Avg Vol (3months): 117,991 - That is very low, so if you do have to unload in a hurry, there's not a lot of reason for anyone else to buy it.

4- Free cash flow - good

5- Debt low - ordinarily that's good, but money is cheap and they should borrow to grow the company.
Financial Strength (MRQ)
Quick Ratio 4.28x      
Current Ratio 4.95x      
Debt/Equity 0.03x      
Debt/Assets 0.03x      

BCPC's debt to equity ratio indicates that it has been less aggressive with using debt to finance growth than 94% of its peers in the Chemical Manufacturing industry. The resultant effect on earnings would be less volatile than related companies.

6- Institutional ownership is high – good.

7- PE is high compared to similar companies in its sector - that means its expensive compared to them.  That's not good.

8- They recently hit a 52 week high, which suggests they are "priced to perfection", hence the high PE in relation to competitors.  

9- When the next big pullback happens, which I suspect will be in late January BCPC is pulling back with it.  If I owned it, I would be unloading some right now to free some cash and buy more during the pending correction.  You won’t go broke taking a profit – make corrections work for you.

8- Its a boring stock.  Boring is OK, but there are better, more interesting things you can be doing with that amount of grease.

Jim


Dec 17, 2010 0.15 Dividend
––––––––>  Jan 21, 2010 3: 2 Stock Split  
Dec 28, 2009 0.11 Dividend
Dec 18, 2008 0.07333 Dividend
Dec 18, 2007 0.07333 Dividend
––––––––> Jan 22, 2007 3: 2 Stock Split
Dec 27, 2006 0.04 Dividend
––––––––> Jan 23, 2006 3: 2 Stock Split
Dec 28, 2005 0.02667 Dividend
––––––––> Jan 21, 2005 3: 2 Stock Split
Dec 28, 2004 0.01778 Dividend
Dec 24, 2003 0.0158 Dividend
Dec 23, 2002 0.0158 Dividend
Dec 21, 2001 0.01284 Dividend
Dec 21, 2000 0.01185 Dividend

Open 33.87
Previous Close 33.86
52 - Week Range 18.17 - 34.29
2/10/10 - 12/31/10
Avg Volume (10 days)63,592
P/E (Trailing 12 mo.)32.31x
EPS (Trailing 12 mo.) 1.047
Next Earnings Date2/21/11
Market Cap 964.3 M
Shares Outstanding 28.5 M
Beta 0.9
Dividend Yield 0.44%
Declared Dividend  0.150
Ex-Dividend Date 12/17/10
Dividend Payable Date 1/20/11

Shareholder Equity
Shares Outstanding 28.5 M
Institutional Ownership 74.08%
Number of Floating Shares 28.4 M
Short Interest as % of Float 5.06%
Link Posted: 1/1/2011 7:39:34 AM EDT
[#3]
Bought an additional 200 shares of RIO for a total of 700 shares.
Link Posted: 1/1/2011 7:47:24 PM EDT
[#4]
Quoted:
Quoted:
So I have a question for the hive-mind with respect to BCPC.
Four out of the last five years it has had a 3/2 split occurring in late January.

Typically when a stock splits it takes a hit to reflect the change in the float.
Each time this stock has split is has bounced back rather quickly.

Seems like an 80% probability of making a cool 50% in a couple of months or less.
Am I deluding myself here or what?

Disclosure:  long 2000 shares since it formed a nice base off of its 200-day in late August.


I looked at this and my comments are as follows:

1- If that's the only stock you own, you may want to consider breaking that up into 5-10 different stocks in different sectors, as this is overweight and if the company runs into problems, you could suffer catastrophic loss.  Just look to the shareholders of ENRON for a sobering example. If you work for this company and are issued stock, you most definitely need to break it up if it constitutes the bulk of your 401k.  The employees of ENRON not only saw their gains evaporate as ENRON collapsed; they also were out of a job, a double whammy of epic proportions.  Watch the CNBC special that comes on periodically about this.
––––––Companies are run by humans - shit happens.
––––––Dilute/spread the risk around so you don't wake up to disaster one day.  Maybe it will never happen with this company, but you always should mitigate and manage risk.  Risk is OK; just don't put all eggs in one basket, no matter how solid the underlying company appears to be.

2- I looked at their dividend and splits.  Most of what they pay out is in the increase in stock value, which is OK.  They also pay small cash dividend.  I went back ten years and they never split back to back, so it's likely they will only pay a dividend in Dec 2011 with no split, so not much happening here for 2011.  

3- Their long term chart shows a steady climber, which is favorable.

3- Volume.  Avg Vol (3months): 117,991 - That is very low, so if you do have to unload in a hurry, there's not a lot of reason for anyone else to buy it.

4- Free cash flow - good

5- Debt low - ordinarily that's good, but money is cheap and they should borrow to grow the company.
Financial Strength (MRQ)
Quick Ratio 4.28x      
Current Ratio 4.95x      
Debt/Equity 0.03x      
Debt/Assets 0.03x      

BCPC's debt to equity ratio indicates that it has been less aggressive with using debt to finance growth than 94% of its peers in the Chemical Manufacturing industry. The resultant effect on earnings would be less volatile than related companies.

6- Institutional ownership is high – good.

7- PE is high compared to similar companies in its sector - that means its expensive compared to them.  That's not good.

8- They recently hit a 52 week high, which suggests they are "priced to perfection", hence the high PE in relation to competitors.  

9- When the next big pullback happens, which I suspect will be in late January BCPC is pulling back with it.  If I owned it, I would be unloading some right now to free some cash and buy more during the pending correction.  You won’t go broke taking a profit – make corrections work for you.

8- Its a boring stock.  Boring is OK, but there are better, more interesting things you can be doing with that amount of grease.

Jim


Dec 17, 2010 0.15 Dividend
––––––––>  Jan 21, 2010 3: 2 Stock Split  
Dec 28, 2009 0.11 Dividend
Dec 18, 2008 0.07333 Dividend
Dec 18, 2007 0.07333 Dividend
––––––––> Jan 22, 2007 3: 2 Stock Split
Dec 27, 2006 0.04 Dividend
––––––––> Jan 23, 2006 3: 2 Stock Split
Dec 28, 2005 0.02667 Dividend
––––––––> Jan 21, 2005 3: 2 Stock Split
Dec 28, 2004 0.01778 Dividend
Dec 24, 2003 0.0158 Dividend
Dec 23, 2002 0.0158 Dividend
Dec 21, 2001 0.01284 Dividend
Dec 21, 2000 0.01185 Dividend

Open 33.87
Previous Close 33.86
52 - Week Range 18.17 - 34.29
2/10/10 - 12/31/10
Avg Volume (10 days)63,592
P/E (Trailing 12 mo.)32.31x
EPS (Trailing 12 mo.) 1.047
Next Earnings Date2/21/11
Market Cap 964.3 M
Shares Outstanding 28.5 M
Beta 0.9
Dividend Yield 0.44%
Declared Dividend  0.150
Ex-Dividend Date 12/17/10
Dividend Payable Date 1/20/11

Shareholder Equity
Shares Outstanding 28.5 M
Institutional Ownership 74.08%
Number of Floating Shares 28.4 M
Short Interest as % of Float 5.06%


I always enjoy reading your insightful posts.
I'm the kind of guy that plays my stops.
Seems I often close a position by stopping-out on it...
No, BCPC isn't my only position.
No, this isn't 401K money.
I have a problem taking 401K money seriously as I believe it is only a matter of time before Obama pulls an Argentina and nationalizes all 401K's into yet another Social Security tax.
After all, 401K's and such are the only major store of wealth remaining that the federal government hasn't yet stolen and squandered.
Held LVS almost all year until I stopped-out last month...now sitting on that cash.
Been long on FFIV all year.
Long on VLO, PUDA, and C since late August.

Usually I try to keep no more than six positions at any one time (now holding five)...a Bill O'Neil-ism that has stuck with me.
Intensely curious about what sort of catalyst you foresee for a January 2011 market correction?
I have absolutely no problem dumping everything in a matter of minutes and loading the boat with RYAIX at the slightest provocation (done that before).
Both RYAIX and BEARX are quite a bargain at the moment.

Link Posted: 1/2/2011 8:28:44 AM EDT
[#5]
Quoted:

I'm the kind of guy that plays my stops.

You may want to reconsider using stops or at least minimizing them.  

Here's why:  

If you put stops in 25% of your entry point during the flash crash last summer, probably all your stocks with stops in place would've sold off 20-50%, only to rebound the very same day.  The true reason for the flash crash hasn't been revealed, IMO, which suggests to me it can happen again.  I occasionally use them if I'm out of touch of access to my account, but I use them very sparingly.

I have a problem taking 401K money seriously as I believe it is only a matter of time before Obama pulls an Argentina and nationalizes all 401K's into yet another Social Security tax.

This has been a concern of mine, since the Democrats put together a study group on this very subject last year.  It doesn't mean they will do it, but it suggests to me they'd like to put their dick skinners on that cash cow.  I don’t know if it’s politically attainable without some serious consequences for the party that attempts to enact it.

Long on VLO, PUDA, and C since late August.

I have a core holding of 1000 shares C and I plan on trading 2000 others.  C will probably reverse split this year to get the share price above $5.  Many funds can't own a stock that trades under $5, so they need to bump it up so big money can put a floor under it.  So in this instance a reverse split is good because the underlying fundamentals of C are sound overall. It just has way too big of a float.

C is a secular growth/speculative for me.

Usually I try to keep no more than six positions at any one time (now holding five)...a Bill O'Neil-ism that has stuck with me.

I'm running average 5-8, but will probably bump that up a little.  Right now I'm at 13, but I'm selling some off this first week if the new inflows bump up the indices.  I may be as high as 20 by the end of the year, spread out across different sectors.  I tend to buy and sell the same twenty stocks over and over, in concert with indice runups (sell) and corrections (buy) or when a stock goes ex-div (buy)  I try to sell a div stock in the run-up to just before ex-div and capture the stock appreciation more so than collecting the div.

Intensely curious about what sort of catalyst you foresee for a January 2011 market correction?

The talking heads CNBC, indice charts (see below) and various blogs.  Dec was a huge run and we need a pullback.  If you compare the one year and five charts for DOW (.DJI), NASDAQ (.IXIC) and S&P (RTH), you'll see they pretty much trade together, which means if you have a stock that's in one of those indices, at least 50% of its share price is tied to the rise/fall of the indice.  

S&P, DOW and NASDAQ 5 year comparison



S&P, DOW and NASDAQ 1 year comparison

The market traded in a band for most of the year until the last quarter.  I can’t always spot a top, but I’ve been good about the bottom, and I usually start buying on the second or third day when the DOW has fallen at least 300 points and I’m still buying into 500 and beyond.  Remember, these aren’t broken companies, they’re broken stocks and you are getting  an opportunity to buy a quality company at discount prices.

They're going down with everything else during a market correction.  That is an opportunity to buy and that's why you want to sell some position off on big up days and bank some cash so you can buy it back on sale during a correction.  



If the market keeps running like it did the last quarter of 2010, then you’re still making money, just not as much.  That’s a high quality problem that’s OK to have.  Just take comfort in the fact it will pull back and plan to take advantage of that opportunity.  

I used to fear corrections.  Now I plan for them and it has made me a lot more money.  It’s very counter intuitive, but I’m telling you it works.  Occasionally I will buy when a certain stock is running hot (like Molycorp) but every point it runs up gives me a reason to unload it, as it’s getting more expensive.  It is rare and I don’t do it very often, since you can get burned really bad.  It’s probably better to buy options.

I have absolutely no problem dumping everything in a matter of minutes and loading the boat with RYAIX at the slightest provocation (done that before).

If you decide to sell, sell into a market wide rally and take 25-30% off at a time.

One other thing I’m doing is buying high yield stocks like Redwood Trust (RWT). RWT trades in a band, selling off right after ex-div and running up over the next three months.  I like to buy it in the low 14’s and sell near 15 and pocket around $1000.  It pays a 25 cent div, so if it doesn’t reach close to 15, I get paid while I’m waiting.  

Looking into the future, real estate may be coming back, so RWT may start a steady climb upward and I’ll adopt another stock that trades in a channel to buy/sell and just hang on to RWT.
Overall, I’m running a mix of buy and hold with some high yielders (REITs and MLPs), plus 10-20% speculative secular growth and hanging on to a lot of cash at the moment.  I have some tech, but not a lot.  I think it’s flat lined for a while.

I like commodities but I’m uncertain what the dollar is going to do.  Gold looks like it’s going to fall, but oil and rare earths probably mean a mixed bag outcome in the near term.

Jim

Link Posted: 1/2/2011 9:57:01 AM EDT
[#6]
Quoted:
Bought an additional 200 shares of RIO for a total of 700 shares.


RIO has been on a frigging tear.  

It still looks good, though.

I'd like to see it buy AVL after AVL runs up some.

Jim

Link Posted: 1/3/2011 6:13:54 AM EDT
[#7]
Quoted:
Quoted:
Bought an additional 200 shares of RIO for a total of 700 shares.


RIO has been on a frigging tear.  

It still looks good, though.

I'd like to see it buy AVL after AVL runs up some.

Jim



I like RIO.
Put the cash from closing my LVS position back to work.
Long on FNSR this morning just after the open.

Link Posted: 1/4/2011 5:44:19 AM EDT
[#8]
Link Posted: 1/4/2011 7:15:34 PM EDT
[#9]
Bought some AVL and a wee bit of TIE on the pullback.  This is not the big correction.  I picked up the extra AVL to trade if it runs up some, otherwise I hold on to it.

01/04/11   1:25 PM EST      Buy 100 TIE Executed @ $16.6795
01/04/11   10:23 AM EST      Buy 700 AVL Executed @ $7.5  
01/04/11   9:49 AM EST      Buy 300 AVL Executed @ $7.5
Link Posted: 1/4/2011 7:37:39 PM EDT
[#10]
I'm buying ETNL like a sumbitch.
Link Posted: 1/7/2011 4:31:24 PM EDT
[#11]
Bought some more Citi:

Your Day buy order for 1000 C at a limit price of $4.91 was executed at $4.9075.

Currently own: AVL C FTR HIX IRET MFA PVX RWT SJT TIE WAVX $$$

My "Next buy/watch list" that I cycle in and out of:

AVL C CSCO EHI EPB FTR HGT IRET KBH MFA MO NHP NRG PCL PDS PVX REMX RWT SJT TIE VOD VRSN WY

I'm probably going to cut down my trades this year if market conditions change and we start a general uptrend and don't trade in a band like last year.

244 was too many in 2010.  I only was at 120 in mid-Oct, but traded heavy in Dec.  I'm pretty happy with what I currently have.

Jim
Link Posted: 1/10/2011 2:32:18 PM EDT
[#12]
Quoted:
Bought some more Citi:

Your Day buy order for 1000 C at a limit price of $4.91 was executed at $4.9075.

Currently own: AVL C FTR HIX IRET MFA PVX RWT SJT TIE WAVX $$$

My "Next buy/watch list" that I cycle in and out of:

AVL C CSCO EHI EPB FTR HGT IRET KBH MFA MO NHP NRG PCL PDS PVX REMX RWT SJT TIE VOD VRSN WY

I'm probably going to cut down my trades this year if market conditions change and we start a general uptrend and don't trade in a band like last year.

244 was too many in 2010.  I only was at 120 in mid-Oct, but traded heavy in Dec.  I'm pretty happy with what I currently have.

Jim


Are you concerned about the pending foreclosure court decisions - namely the inability of lenders being able to prove that they had rights to foreclose on all the bad mortgages that are out there - with Citibank?
Link Posted: 1/10/2011 3:20:24 PM EDT
[#13]
Quoted:
Quoted:
Bought some more Citi:

Your Day buy order for 1000 C at a limit price of $4.91 was executed at $4.9075.

Currently own: AVL C FTR HIX IRET MFA PVX RWT SJT TIE WAVX $$$

My "Next buy/watch list" that I cycle in and out of:

AVL C CSCO EHI EPB FTR HGT IRET KBH MFA MO NHP NRG PCL PDS PVX REMX RWT SJT TIE VOD VRSN WY

I'm probably going to cut down my trades this year if market conditions change and we start a general uptrend and don't trade in a band like last year.

244 was too many in 2010.  I only was at 120 in mid-Oct, but traded heavy in Dec.  I'm pretty happy with what I currently have.

Jim


Are you concerned about the pending foreclosure court decisions - namely the inability of lenders being able to prove that they had rights to foreclose on all the bad mortgages that are out there - with Citibank?


No.

It's already baked in and it isn't nationwide, that's one regional area.

C is less exposed than many others.  

If does bring the sector lower, it lets me pick up more.  

I want to buy another 1000 in the 4.8-4.9 range.  

That gives me 2K to trade with and one to hold.

Earnings are next Tuesday, by the way.

Jim
Link Posted: 1/10/2011 3:36:49 PM EDT
[#14]
I was just looking at BCPC and I was wrong about back to back splits:  It did exactly that three times 2005-07.

I don't know what I thinking there.

It's also up nicely today on a down day and there's a positive piece on it in Seeking Alpha:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/244431-19-consistently-sound-picks-for-2011?source=yahoo
Link Posted: 1/12/2011 6:56:44 AM EDT
[#15]
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Bought some more Citi:

Your Day buy order for 1000 C at a limit price of $4.91 was executed at $4.9075.

Currently own: AVL C FTR HIX IRET MFA PVX RWT SJT TIE WAVX $$$

My "Next buy/watch list" that I cycle in and out of:

AVL C CSCO EHI EPB FTR HGT IRET KBH MFA MO NHP NRG PCL PDS PVX REMX RWT SJT TIE VOD VRSN WY

I'm probably going to cut down my trades this year if market conditions change and we start a general uptrend and don't trade in a band like last year.

244 was too many in 2010.  I only was at 120 in mid-Oct, but traded heavy in Dec.  I'm pretty happy with what I currently have.

Jim


Are you concerned about the pending foreclosure court decisions - namely the inability of lenders being able to prove that they had rights to foreclose on all the bad mortgages that are out there - with Citibank?


No.

It's already baked in and it isn't nationwide, that's one regional area.

C is less exposed than many others.  

If does bring the sector lower, it lets me pick up more.  

I want to buy another 1000 in the 4.8-4.9 range.  

That gives me 2K to trade with and one to hold.

Earnings are next Tuesday, by the way.

Jim


Loaded the boat this morning with more shares of C and VLO (added to these positions).
I believe the perfect storm that occurred for crude oil in 2007 is going to repeat for 2011.
Looks like C is into $5 territory and is close to meeting the minimum valuation requirement for institutionals to start picking them up.
As of this morning I am all in.
Link Posted: 1/18/2011 4:21:29 AM EDT
[#16]
I just bought 1000/C at 4.95 pre-market.

It's falling like a rock.

I'll buy some more if we fall through 4.8.

Jim
Link Posted: 1/18/2011 5:45:50 AM EDT
[#17]
Quoted:
I just bought 1000/C at 4.95 pre-market.

It's falling like a rock.

I'll buy some more if we fall through 4.8.

Jim


have a buy at 4.9 C. wasn't sure if it would get there or not.
Link Posted: 1/18/2011 10:07:37 AM EDT
[#18]
Quoted:
Quoted:
I just bought 1000/C at 4.95 pre-market.

It's falling like a rock.

I'll buy some more if we fall through 4.8.

Jim


have a buy at 4.9 C. wasn't sure if it would get there or not.


Overall, things are improving at C.
Can't expect a stock to go straight up like a laser.
Curious how Reuters believes they can publish an accurate earnings estimate without direct access to C's books...
Pandit has accomplished much good at the helm, though he still has a ways to go to turn it around completely.

Link Posted: 1/18/2011 10:11:19 AM EDT
[#19]
Quoted:
I bought GM and ford. Not so sure about GM but we will see.  I just put in an order for BPenergy, Duke reality, ATT and last but not least Smith and Wesson. I am praying we see more says like today. CB


Ford has made me some money but I am thinking about dumping it, too much overcapacity in the auto market and with higher oil prices, I think the low mileage imports will be the hot cars. Besides American car companies don't make near as much money on high MPG cars.

Link Posted: 1/18/2011 11:04:07 AM EDT
[#20]
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
I just bought 1000/C at 4.95 pre-market.

It's falling like a rock.

I'll buy some more if we fall through 4.8.

Jim


have a buy at 4.9 C. wasn't sure if it would get there or not.


Overall, things are improving at C.
Can't expect a stock to go straight up like a laser.
Curious how Reuters believes they can publish an accurate earnings estimate without direct access to C's books...
Pandit has accomplished much good at the helm, though he still has a ways to go to turn it around completely.



Thats what I've read in several places.
You may have misunderstood what I ment by not getting there, I placed an order for lower than the current price.. wasn't sure if it would drop to 4.9. Last I checked it should have gone through, I think it was at 4.8 something last I looked.  
I expect it to turn around eventually, I would actually like to increase my holdings in but don't have enough to make that move right now. I'll keep an eye on it and see how it works out.
Link Posted: 1/18/2011 5:28:44 PM EDT
[#21]
Some good news for us Citi bulls...


Citigroup Declares Dividends on Preferred Stock
2 hours 32 minutes ago - BIZ
BusinessWireThe Board of Directors of Citigroup (NYSE:C) today declared dividends on preferred stock as follows:

–– 6.5% Non-Cumulative Convertible Preferred Stock, Series T, payable February 15, 2011, to holders of record on February 4, 2011. Holders of depositary receipts, each representing one-thousandth of a full convertible preferred share, will be paid $.8125 for each receipt held.

–– 8.125% Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock, Series AA, payable February 15, 2011, to holders of record on February 4, 2011. Holders of depositary receipts, each representing one-thousandth of a full preferred share, will be paid $.5078125 for each receipt held.

–– 8.50% Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock, Series F, payable March 15, 2011, to holders of record on March 4, 2011. Holders of depositary receipts, each representing one-thousandth of a full preferred share, will be paid $.53125 for each receipt held.

Citi, the leading global financial services company, has approximately 200 million customer accounts and does business in more than 160 countries and jurisdictions. Through Citicorp and Citi Holdings, Citi provides consumers, corporations, governments and institutions with a broad range of financial products and services, including consumer banking and credit, corporate and investment banking, securities brokerage, transaction services, and wealth management. Additional information may be found at www.citigroup.com or www.citi.com.

SOURCE: Citi

Citi
Media:
Jon Diat, 212-793-5462
Shannon Bell, 212-793-6206
or
Investors:
John Andrews, 212-559-2718
or
Fixed Income Investors:
Ilene Fiszel Bieler, 212-559-5091
Link Posted: 1/19/2011 7:42:22 PM EDT
[#22]
I just wonder if Citigroup can go much lower than its current 4.76.

I just know this is a stock I'm gonna look back on in a year and kick myself in the ass for not buying it.
Link Posted: 1/19/2011 10:11:02 PM EDT
[#23]
Quoted:
I just wonder if Citigroup can go much lower than its current 4.76.

I just know this is a stock I'm gonna look back on in a year and kick myself in the ass for not buying it.


yep, like Ford when it was a buck a share.

Thanks for answering my question, Omar.  You've turned me towards some stocks that after some due diligence I've been able to make money off of.  I appreciate your posts.
Link Posted: 1/24/2011 11:17:06 AM EDT
[#24]
In banking-sector news, the Treasury Department said it plans to auction about 465 million warrants to purchase Citigroup Inc. (C, Trade ) shares on Tuesday. The government is looking to exit the equity stake it took in Citi as part of the financial bailout.


Any predictions on this for C stock ?
Link Posted: 1/27/2011 4:47:06 AM EDT
[#25]
I think it's about time to buckle up.

I'm looking for a 5-7% correction in the coming weeks.

Some of you (especially traders) may want to sell a little and bank some cash.  

Have at least 20-40% cash on hand and have a list handy of what you want to buy.

Here's why:
-We're breaking through indice highs in the DOW and S&P.  I'll be looking for early birds will selling into these new highs.
-Most of the bears have converted to bulls, this suggests capitulation.
-We'll be through earnings season and all it will take is bad European financial news to create the excuse to sell off.

We'll go higher in 2011, but I smell a pullback coming.

Jim
Link Posted: 1/27/2011 5:41:12 AM EDT
[#26]



Quoted:


I think it's about time to buckle up.



I'm looking for a 5-7% correction in the coming weeks.



Some of you (especially traders) may want to sell a little and bank some cash.  



Have at least 20-40% cash on hand and have a list handy of what you want to buy.



Here's why:

-We're breaking through indice highs in the DOW and S&P.  I'll be looking for early birds will selling into these new highs.

-Most of the bears have converted to bulls, this suggests capitulation.

-We'll be through earnings season and all it will take is bad European financial news to create the excuse to sell off.



We'll go higher in 2011, but I smell a pullback coming.



Jim


Hope there's a little more time, MU just broke the 10.32 that I fucking bought it at a year ago



'Course, I did put some more into it @ 7.70, but still...



 
Link Posted: 1/27/2011 7:02:03 AM EDT
[#27]
Was thinking of a pull back myself.. it was just a feeling though, and I was hoping for at least a small one so I can either increase some of my holdings or buy some new ones.

Link Posted: 1/27/2011 2:48:50 PM EDT
[#28]
I don't follow MU closely, but it looks like a short squeeze is in play.

I don't know what the upside is, as there appears to be discussion over exiting the DRAM business and MU is in transition.

Overall, it looks like it is probably going higher once clear of the DRAM business, so the future looks brighter than the past as they transition into production for tablet internals.

Additionally, as it approaches a one year high, some who bought at the 2010 high will be looking to get out and that should cause some near term downward pressure.

If it hits 12, you may want consider taking some off.

If we get the correction, buy some back.

Jim
Link Posted: 1/27/2011 10:37:58 PM EDT
[#29]



Quoted:


I don't follow MU closely, but it looks like a short squeeze is in play.



I don't know what the upside is, as there appears to be discussion over exiting the DRAM business and MU is in transition.



Overall, it looks like it is probably going higher once clear of the DRAM business, so the future looks brighter than the past as they transition into production for tablet internals.



Additionally, as it approaches a one year high, some who bought at the 2010 high will be looking to get out and that should cause some near term downward pressure.



If it hits 12, you may want consider taking some off.



If we get the correction, buy some back.



Jim


I have kind of been enjoying watching the short squeeze. I hope it hurts, ya bastards



I'm thinking of moving some cash into a DRIP in the near future. Thoughts?



 
Link Posted: 1/28/2011 5:04:39 AM EDT
[#30]
Quoted:

I'm thinking of moving some cash into a DRIP in the near future. Thoughts?
 


DRIP in another stock?  I'm not certain what you mean here, as MU doesn't pay a dividend to reinvest.

Lets take PVX for example:

Provident pays a 4.5 cent dividend per share per month, so if you buy 1000 PVX, you'll receive $45 per month that you can elect to DRIP.  

So, what will happen, is once the dividend is paid, it will be used to automatically purchase $45 worth of PVX stock and there will be no brokerage fee.  If PVX is selling a $8.00 per share, you would add 5.625 shares (45 divided by 8) and you would see your ownership of PVX rise to 1005.6 shares.  If the price and div more or less stays steady for a year, you would have around 1067 shares in one year and you wouldn't have incurred any additional brokerage fee, although you would be paying tax annually on the dividend in a non tax deferred account.

There's tons of safe, high yielding closed end funds and MLPs out there that would be good to put in DRIP in a Roth IRA.

Jim
Link Posted: 1/28/2011 10:55:54 AM EDT
[#31]
Link Posted: 1/28/2011 3:52:37 PM EDT
[#32]
Quoted:

Hanging onto all of the other oil stocks, even added some on dips. If things continue to spread in the ME, it may go on a wild ride. Interesting times.



I hope we drop about 300-450 points next week.

This why I like Canadian and US oil/gas trusts and MLPs.  

You can count on the ME to take a shit unexpectedly and drive gold and non ME oil up.

I want to buy more HIX and DNP in the low nines and maybe buy back in to PDS.

I bought 1000 PVX at $8.08 last Friday, 100 more SJT at 23.44 yesterday and 100 MCP at $46 today.  It gives me REE exposure, light to heavy (AVL heavy, MCP light).

I plan on picking up 900 more of MCP on pullbacks.  

MCP will be a powerhouse like POT is in its segment, probably in the next 2-3 years.

Jim

Edited to add:

I also bought 1000 more of Citi last Friday at 4.89.

I would like a little more, but I have other fish to fry.  

I'm developing an interest in high yield closed end funds (still doing homework on them) and I'm starting to trade the spread on them as they run up to ex-div.

HIX and DNP are the ones I am in.  

I also DRIP'd 200 HIX for the 2008 10K portfolio and I'll post an update in the thread today sometime and describe how that works.  The div for HIX was reflected in my account today



Link Posted: 1/29/2011 11:08:41 AM EDT
[#33]



Quoted:



Quoted:



Hanging onto all of the other oil stocks, even added some on dips. If things continue to spread in the ME, it may go on a wild ride. Interesting times.







I hope we drop about 300-450 points next week.



This why I like Canadian and US oil/gas trusts and MLPs.  



You can count on the ME to take a shit unexpectedly and drive gold and non ME oil up.



I want to buy more HIX and DNP in the low nines and maybe buy back in to PDS.



I bought 1000 PVX at $8.08 last Friday, 100 more SJT at 23.44 yesterday and 100 MCP at $46 today.  It gives me REE exposure, light to heavy (AVL heavy, MCP light).



I plan on picking up 900 more of MCP on pullbacks.  



MCP will be a powerhouse like POT is in its segment, probably in the next 2-3 years.



Jim



Edited to add:



I also bought 1000 more of Citi last Friday at 4.89.



I would like a little more, but I have other fish to fry.  



I'm developing an interest in high yield closed end funds (still doing homework on them) and I'm starting to trade the spread on them as they run up to ex-div.



HIX and DNP are the ones I am in.  



I also DRIP'd 200 HIX for the 2008 10K portfolio and I'll post an update in the thread today sometime and describe how that works.  The div for HIX was reflected in my account today





203 of Citi over here. I had a grand to play with, so why not?



Regarding the DRIP, that had nothing to do with MU, I was just thinking of making a long term investment or two in a good DRIP, wondering if you had any recommendations for good ones out there.





 
Link Posted: 1/29/2011 8:01:33 PM EDT
[#34]
How does one go about setting up a DRIP?  Can I do it through my broker (USAA), or do I have to purchase stocks directly from the company I want to invest in?
Link Posted: 1/29/2011 8:20:52 PM EDT
[#35]
Quoted:
How does one go about setting up a DRIP?  Can I do it through my broker (USAA), or do I have to purchase stocks directly from the company I want to invest in?


You can/should be able to do either.

I have USAA insurance, but I don't trade through them.  I would call and ask, as it's probably easier to set up vs going direct to a company.

With most of the online brokers, you just toggle on it and ID the shares you want DRIP'ed.

It took me all of about 30 seconds to set it up.

Jim

Link Posted: 1/30/2011 6:08:12 AM EDT
[#36]
Where do you guy's see C in a year from now ? I've read the projections were around 5.60.

How about 5 years ?  I know who knows... but just curious as to what everyone thought.  


I am quite heavy into Citibank at 4.52 avg.
Link Posted: 1/30/2011 8:03:35 AM EDT
[#37]
Quoted:
Where do you guy's see C in a year from now ? I've read the projections were around 5.60.

How about 5 years ?  I know who knows... but just curious as to what everyone thought.  


I am quite heavy into Citibank at 4.52 avg.


Cramer is calling for Citi to be at $12 in 2012.  I know a lot of people dislike him, but he frequently mentions C.  

When that happens, he's frequently right.

I've seen $8-12 elsewhere.

The float is huge.

It will probably reverse split this year.  

If that happens 1:3, think $30/36 share.  

A lot of funds can't buy under $5, so once C has a solid floor above five, it will run.

Jim
Link Posted: 1/31/2011 5:41:47 PM EDT
[#38]
Link Posted: 1/31/2011 7:08:47 PM EDT
[#39]
Quoted:

The urge to sell is getting strong. CHK, HES, XOM all made big jumps today.  Oil is going to take a big nose dive if the ME settles down. Fear is the only thing holding it up.



Fear is good.  

I think things are a little frothy and once earnings are over, the pullback will happen.

I think the rise in oil stocks was in response the CHK deal.

Today I bought 100 shares at $30.60 of an Izzy cellphone company (CEL) that got hit by the Egypt crisis.  I may buy a bigger slice if it goes lower.

The yield is 11.48%.
Link Posted: 2/1/2011 6:12:25 PM EDT
[#40]
"How does one go about setting up a DRIP?"

Corporal––-I still have a few setup about 15-20 years ago. Back then fees for buying stock and reinvesting dividends were pretty high so I setup some DRIPS that charged little to nothing for reinvesting. Now I wouldn't do a DRIP cause there are so many discount brokers that fees are low and reinvesting is free. Plus you can buy and sell spur of the moment. With my DRIPS to buy more shares I would need to send a check to the bank holding company which would buy the shares during a small window each month. Plus if I'd wanna cash out it's more red tape than just going to Schwab, etc. Also more yearly paperwork at tax time. Good thing is they're more out of reach so I've just left em and they've done well. So just buy the stock you want thru a discount broker, ask em to reinvest dividends and have the discipline to just let em run and chip in more on dips. Hope this helps!
Link Posted: 2/1/2011 6:24:01 PM EDT
[#41]





Quoted:
Quoted:


I think it's about time to buckle up.





I'm looking for a 5-7% correction in the coming weeks.





Some of you (especially traders) may want to sell a little and bank some cash.  





Have at least 20-40% cash on hand and have a list handy of what you want to buy.





Here's why:


-We're breaking through indice highs in the DOW and S&P.  I'll be looking for early birds will selling into these new highs.


-Most of the bears have converted to bulls, this suggests capitulation.


-We'll be through earnings season and all it will take is bad European financial news to create the excuse to sell off.





We'll go higher in 2011, but I smell a pullback coming.





Jim



Hope there's a little more time, MU just broke the 10.32 that I fucking bought it at a year ago





'Course, I did put some more into it @ 7.70, but still...


 



For some reason lately I have been getting the feeling that the markets will test 2007 highs and then use unrest/turmoil in the Middle East/Suez Canal as an excuse to test March 2009 lows.

Be ready to run to inverse etf's at a moment's notice.







 





 
Link Posted: 2/2/2011 1:06:27 PM EDT
[#42]
Quoted:
"How does one go about setting up a DRIP?"

Corporal––-I still have a few setup about 15-20 years ago. Back then fees for buying stock and reinvesting dividends were pretty high so I setup some DRIPS that charged little to nothing for reinvesting. Now I wouldn't do a DRIP cause there are so many discount brokers that fees are low and reinvesting is free. Plus you can buy and sell spur of the moment. With my DRIPS to buy more shares I would need to send a check to the bank holding company which would buy the shares during a small window each month. Plus if I'd wanna cash out it's more red tape than just going to Schwab, etc. Also more yearly paperwork at tax time. Good thing is they're more out of reach so I've just left em and they've done well. So just buy the stock you want thru a discount broker, ask em to reinvest dividends and have the discipline to just let em run and chip in more on dips. Hope this helps!


That's kind of what I want to do.  I have an investment account at USAA and when I buy a dividend paying stock, I get cash instead of a reinvestment.  My mom also has an IRA at USAA, and if she buys the same exact stock, her dividends get reinvested, free of charge.  I can't for the life of me remember if I did anything different when setting up the accounts.  I guess it's time to call them up an see what I can do about changing the settings on my account.

Link Posted: 2/4/2011 1:48:22 PM EDT
[#43]

The chatter continues to rise about a 5-7% pullback, and I concur.

I'll probably sell something on Monday.

I picked up FFIV as a momentum trade and plan to sell around $135 and add more to POT or maybe CEL if conditions are favorable.

I also added 200 PGH to reconstitute the 10K portfolio.  I'll be DRIPing those shares as I did with HIX.

I'm already having a kick ass year.


02/03/11   12:36 PM EST      Buy 100 FFIV Executed @ $117.75        
02/03/11   9:37 AM EST      Buy 100 REMX Executed @ $24.4      
02/02/11   3:27 PM EST      Buy 500 AVL Executed @ $6.4396        
02/02/11   1:03 PM EST      Buy 30 POT Executed @ $183.99        
02/02/11   12:39 PM EST      Buy 200 PGH Executed @ $12.7795        
02/01/11   9:55 AM EST      Sell 1000 PVX Executed @ $8.1804
Link Posted: 2/5/2011 11:07:32 PM EDT
[#44]
Saw you bought more AVL at its current price (or around it) I've been watching it for some time thinking bout picking it up. I wish I had earlier but was wondering if you think it will improve from where it is or pull back? I was waiting for the pull backs to it pick up. I would like to get it in the 5 dollar range again before I buy. It was looking like it would bounce around a little more before it starting on its climb.
Currently watching AVL, GE, PFE, QRM, and RWT for pullbacks. I've got some GE already that I bought way back and have made money, so if it pulls back into the 18 19 range I may pick up some more.

Have to watch out though, starting to run out of money to invest....



Quoted:

The chatter continues to rise about a 5-7% pullback, and I concur.

I'll probably sell something on Monday.

I picked up FFIV as a momentum trade and plan to sell around $135 and add more to POT or maybe CEL if conditions are favorable.

I also added 200 PGH to reconstitute the 10K portfolio.  I'll be DRIPing those shares as I did with HIX.

I'm already having a kick ass year.


02/03/11   12:36 PM EST      Buy 100 FFIV Executed @ $117.75        
02/03/11   9:37 AM EST      Buy 100 REMX Executed @ $24.4      
02/02/11   3:27 PM EST      Buy 500 AVL Executed @ $6.4396        
02/02/11   1:03 PM EST      Buy 30 POT Executed @ $183.99        
02/02/11   12:39 PM EST      Buy 200 PGH Executed @ $12.7795        
02/01/11   9:55 AM EST      Sell 1000 PVX Executed @ $8.1804


Link Posted: 2/6/2011 3:05:34 PM EDT
[#45]
Quoted:
Saw you bought more AVL at its current price (or around it) I've been watching it for some time thinking bout picking it up. I wish I had earlier but was wondering if you think it will improve from where it is or pull back? I was waiting for the pull backs to it pick up. I would like to get it in the 5 dollar range again before I buy. It was looking like it would bounce around a little more before it starting on its climb.
Currently watching AVL, GE, PFE, QRM, and RWT for pullbacks. I've got some GE already that I bought way back and have made money, so if it pulls back into the 18 19 range I may pick up some more.

Have to watch out though, starting to run out of money to invest....


I've been waiting for RWT to pull back as well.

As for AVL: Since AVL is a developmental mining company with no earnings to speak of, I expect it to spiral down when there's no news.  

It trades on future earnings and REE shortage news.

I think you can get more at around $6, especially on a pullback.  I'm not so sure about $5.  

I wouldn't be surprised to wake up one day and read that BHP, MCP or RIO is buying it for its confirmed HREE deposits..

Jim
Link Posted: 2/7/2011 7:17:58 AM EDT
[#46]
Thanks to everyone on this thread, I've gotten some great advice and tips which have worked out very well.
I have a question about my portfolio and how to hedge it against a significant market drop, which seems very possible.  This is in an account I rolled over from an old 401k and not associated with my other assets.  Obviously I'm very heavy into metals, but would like to get some thoughts on how the below allocations would weather a storm.  I am thinking of pulling about 1/2 of my PRPFX out to put elsewhere, though it has been a constant return with a nice dividend.










 








 








 








 








 








 








 








 








 








 








 








 








 








 








 









AVL (3%)
BP (4%)
C (2%)
GG (3%)
GWMGF (4%)
NEM (9%)
NIV (3%)
PRPFX (20%)
RBY (5%)
SIVR (9%)
SLW (7%)
TC (5%)
TNK (5%)
UGL (4%)
UNG (4%)
USO (12%)




 
Link Posted: 2/7/2011 12:11:34 PM EDT
[#47]
Sorry to not answer your question (I'll leave it to the smarter investing guys here lol) Just wanted to comment on your first sentence here. It is very nice to have a discussion on different things people are following. I've found a few that I would have normally looked over had I not been following this thread. I try to do some research in the little time I have, but most of the time the only stocks that stick out in the open are the big companies. Sometimes its hard to find the so called little guys whose news gets lost in all the bigger news throughout the day. I've found other discussion boards but hadn't found them to be very good. That or they are hard to get around for some reason. I click on one thread here, can ask questions, can decent answers and throw out ideas of my own.

Anyhow, this is me saying thanks also.

Quoted:
Thanks to everyone on this thread, I've gotten some great advice and tips which have worked out very well.

 


Link Posted: 2/11/2011 8:04:21 AM EDT
[#48]
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Bought an additional 200 shares of RIO for a total of 700 shares.


RIO has been on a frigging tear.  

It still looks good, though.

I'd like to see it buy AVL after AVL runs up some.

Jim



I like RIO.
Put the cash from closing my LVS position back to work.
Long on FNSR this morning just after the open.



FNSR moving north nicely...

Link Posted: 2/11/2011 8:13:16 AM EDT
[#49]
Added 500 C to my long term holdings today.     And fighting an urge to sell other stocks.
Link Posted: 2/11/2011 9:16:34 AM EDT
[#50]
Quoted:
Added 500 C to my long term holdings today.     And fighting an urge to sell other stocks.


Sold my big gainers... Didn't want to b/c they paid good dividend but I wanted to move to other things and I made what I wanted to from them.

I've been contemplating adding to my C holdings. I'll see how things look next week and may consider it some more.
Added CPSL, CEL, and hoping to pick up a small chunk of PFE before the end of the day.

Currently watching PDS, AVL, QRM, ONNN

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