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Link Posted: 2/11/2011 5:14:41 PM EDT
[#1]
I unloaded some stuff so I have cash on hand for a pullback, even though the market appears to be defying gravity at this point.

I've made 5K in the last two weeks executing small trades.

02/11/11   8:56 AM EST      Buy 30 POT Executed @ $185.68    I have 60 shares now that will split 3:1.  Past history with POT is it continues to rise after the split, so I plan on holding for a few months.      

02/11/11   8:39 AM EST      Buy 100 MCP Executed @ $49.67  - I probably bought a little early, but I plan on buying 1000 shares on pullbacks.        
 
02/11/11   8:24 AM EST      Buy 100 AKAM Executed @ $41.38 - bought this after the haircut.        
 
This was all one after hours 1000 share sell on a limit order executed at different times.  
I didn't get charged multiple fees, just $9.99:

02/08/11   7:57 PM EST      Sell 110 AVL Executed @ $7.79        
02/08/11   7:56 PM EST      Sell 400 AVL Executed @ $7.79        
02/08/11   7:54 PM EST      Sell 300 AVL Executed @ $7.79      
02/08/11   7:54 PM EST      Sell 190 AVL Executed @ $7.8      

- I'll buy more AVL after it pulls back as I've done multiple times before.
 
02/08/11   9:55 AM EST      Sell 100 REMX Executed @ $25.1508  
       
02/08/11   9:50 AM EST      Sell 100 FFIV Executed @ $123.69  - If this pulls back  in a correction, I'll pick it back up.  

Later, it traded down in symapthy with the CISCO earning disappointment, but I missed the opportunity to buy, as I had no account access on that day.
Link Posted: 2/14/2011 4:37:34 PM EDT
[#2]
Quoted:
I unloaded some stuff so I have cash on hand for a pullback, even though the market appears to be defying gravity at this point.

I've made 5K in the last two weeks executing small trades.



Yeah, I'm up about 17% so far for 2011, and it's making me jumpy.  I keep thinking a pullback is imminent, but the market just keeps climbing.  Unloaded AVL today for a quick 10% gain.
Link Posted: 2/14/2011 6:23:54 PM EDT
[#3]
Quoted:

Yeah, I'm up about 17% so far for 2011, and it's making me jumpy.  I keep thinking a pullback is imminent, but the market just keeps climbing.  Unloaded AVL today for a quick 10% gain.


AVL will pull back and you can wash, rinse and repeat.

If I get 5 more cents out of C tomorrow, I'm selling 3K shares to build more cash up.

We're almost done with earnings season, so I figure next week the pullback will commence.

There is a ton of money coming in off the sidelines, so the pullback may be shallow.

Jim

Link Posted: 2/15/2011 4:47:34 AM EDT
[#4]
Congrats on the almost perfect sale price on AVL Omar...I'm looking to pick it up closer to 6.5 or so in the coming weeks.  

RICK: Dumped half of my RICK options (10 strike) this past Friday.  Still long RICK with remaining position (150 May 10's)...target is 13.5 short term, but we could be seeing the beginning of a major bull move here, perhaps to new highs above 30. Looking to get out at 3-3.5 a contract (RICK = 13.5) and then rebuy them all at the 50 day MA.  

XLE: Increased my short position using out of the money puts (60 contracts).  Long term I'm very bullish, but we're desperately in need of a correction to get the weak money out.  I'm looking to initiate a long position at the 40 week MA, which I expect to see within the next 2 months.  

$COMPQ (Nasdaq composite): Just want to point out that we're exactly at the highs from late 2007.  I wouldn't be surprised in the least if we get a 10% correction over the next 4-5 weeks.  

EWT (Taiwan): Holding 16 strike puts here, target is 14.  13.91 is the first Fibonacci line, and I'm going to take it all off the table then.  




Link Posted: 2/15/2011 3:12:06 PM EDT
[#5]
Quoted:
Quoted:

Yeah, I'm up about 17% so far for 2011, and it's making me jumpy.  I keep thinking a pullback is imminent, but the market just keeps climbing.  Unloaded AVL today for a quick 10% gain.


AVL will pull back and you can wash, rinse and repeat.

If I get 5 more cents out of C tomorrow, I'm selling 3K shares to build more cash up.

We're almost done with earnings season, so I figure next week the pullback will commence.

There is a ton of money coming in off the sidelines, so the pullback may be shallow.

Jim



I was thinking about selling some C for cash myself. Do you see C pulling back 5-7% with the rest of the market ?


I'm still learning, thanks guys.

Link Posted: 2/15/2011 4:09:40 PM EDT
[#6]
Quoted:
I was thinking about selling some C for cash myself. Do you see C pulling back 5-7% with the rest of the market ?


It could pull back 25 cents, but that's hard to call.  

Overall, it trades in a tight range for a long time and then one day, it steps up to a new floor/level.

If it pulled back that far, I would rebuy.

I added 30 more shares to my 60 shares of POT today.  

POT is splitting 3:1 on 25 Feb.  I may do 30 more and call it good if pulls back more.

- Day buy order for 30 POT at a limit price of $183.75 was executed at $183.67.
Link Posted: 2/17/2011 10:14:58 AM EDT
[#7]
Jesus today is a good day so far, MU up two percent and C is creeping ever closer to 5. I feel like I just need to sell before I start getting greedy
Link Posted: 2/22/2011 7:53:02 AM EDT
[#8]
C down 14 cents this morning.  I'm about to buy some more.
Link Posted: 2/22/2011 8:38:31 AM EDT
[#9]
Quoted:
C down 14 cents this morning.  I'm about to buy some more.


Looks like everything is down, wonder if theres any bounce back soon enough. The oil problem thats looming may mean more downturn before up again. (i hope not )
Link Posted: 2/22/2011 8:57:59 AM EDT
[#10]
Quoted:
Quoted:
C down 14 cents this morning.  I'm about to buy some more.


Looks like everything is down, wonder if theres any bounce back soon enough. The oil problem thats looming may mean more downturn before up again. (i hope not )


C is getting hit harder than the indices or financials in general.

4.68, -0.22, -4.58%  
Link Posted: 2/22/2011 9:29:30 AM EDT
[#11]
Quoted:
Quoted:
C down 14 cents this morning.  I'm about to buy some more.


Looks like everything is down, wonder if there's any bounce back soon enough. The oil problem thats looming may mean more downturn before up again. (i hope not )


In my experience, pullbacks are more severe than most people expect.  I still think we've got a lot more downside. VIX is spiking, but we won't have a bottom (by bottom I mean a yearly low) until VIX prints at least 30-35.  If you look up a few posts, you'll see a list of my picks.
Link Posted: 2/22/2011 9:34:59 AM EDT
[#12]
Aww fuck it, let's go VXX.
Link Posted: 2/22/2011 10:41:42 AM EDT
[#13]
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
C down 14 cents this morning.  I'm about to buy some more.


Looks like everything is down, wonder if there's any bounce back soon enough. The oil problem thats looming may mean more downturn before up again. (i hope not )


In my experience, pullbacks are more severe than most people expect.  I still think we've got a lot more downside. VIX is spiking, but we won't have a bottom (by bottom I mean a yearly low) until VIX prints at least 30-35.  If you look up a few posts, you'll see a list of my picks.


Wow.. I'm unfamiliar with the VIX other than the little bit of research I just did... its up almost 28% today. Your expecting 30 to 35 thats a big move.

Id like to hold a couple other moves in the pull back but hate to expose too much of my cash to the market. I'll wait and see what kind of deals turn up I suppose
Link Posted: 2/22/2011 10:55:09 AM EDT
[#14]
Son of a ,,,, One more up day and I was gonna be all over SDS at $20.

So C is looking good, any guesses on its new range?
Link Posted: 2/22/2011 3:06:02 PM EDT
[#15]
Link Posted: 2/22/2011 5:55:06 PM EDT
[#16]
I took a hit on POT today, but MCP, PGH and CHK were green, plus I'm sitting on a lot of cash as I was waiting for this to happen.

I had a feeling POT was going lower, but didn't want to sell it since I just bought it and it splits on the 25th.

CEL, FSC, TIE, WY, FFIV, PVX, RWT and a little more POT are what I plan to buy Thurs-Friday.  

The WY is for the 10K portfolio.

I hope we see DOW/800 points down and pullback of S&P to 1200 in the next two days.

This is when stocks go on sale, and I'll be ready to buy when I sense maximum pain.
Link Posted: 2/22/2011 6:00:08 PM EDT
[#17]
Quoted:
Son of a ,,,, One more up day and I was gonna be all over SDS at $20.

So C is looking good, any guesses on its new range?


I wouldn't buy until Thurs-Friday.  This should be a good/healthy pullback and C should drop with everything else.  

You may want to buy a 1/3 position on Thursday 1/3 or 2/3 Friday.

The market may not bounce until Tuesday, but you should at least get a toe in the water if we pull back another 3-5%.

Edited to add:

HPQ just took a haircut in after hours on earnings disappointment, so the rest of tech will get hit tomorrow.

FFIV is down another $1.86 after hours on top of the $5.74 drop during the trading day, probably due to HPQ.  (getting close to my $110 target).

Link Posted: 2/23/2011 4:51:06 AM EDT
[#18]
Link Posted: 2/23/2011 6:24:43 AM EDT
[#19]
Picked up some USO yesterday.

Posted Via AR15.Com Mobile
Link Posted: 2/23/2011 4:44:23 PM EDT
[#20]
Man, this market just doesn't want to die!

I've been closing out positions for a few days to gather some cash. Sold or stopped out of, VCR, IJH, VAW, VDE "Wish I'd stayed in that one", and DOW. I'm still long on BLV, and few hundred shares of C as a speculative. Bought a few hundred shares each of SDS and SRS today, hoping to make a few $$$ as the market pulls back. Still in them and up a couple of percent on each, but not getting what I hoped.

Looking to get back into MOS, AGU, and maybe pick up some POT after the split, if/when prices finally pull back.

I don't get it, there's a slew of bothersome news, and the markets just keep bucking it?!?!
Link Posted: 2/24/2011 1:04:30 PM EDT
[#21]
My accounts are up between 50-100% up for the year, so I'm not to unhappy with this breakdown.  In fact, I think the last 5 days have given more profits than any other such period in my life.  

IMO, we're not even close to a short term bottom.  I believe that QQQQ will drop at least another 3-4 bucks a share.  I'm looking at 11500 for DJIA, 1200-1210 for SP500, 2050-2070 for the NASDAQ100 for support, and I will probably be buying some calls here hoping that other market participants have the same idea and give me a quick double up.  

After such a extremely long bull run, this correction is going to hurt...unless you're short or out.  

As many of you know, I'm short EWT in a massive way.  We're going to print 13.51....or so.  



Link Posted: 2/24/2011 5:04:02 PM EDT
[#22]
Quoted:
My accounts are up between 50-100% up for the year, so I'm not to unhappy with this breakdown.  In fact, I think the last 5 days have given more profits than any other such period in my life.  

IMO, we're not even close to a short term bottom.  I believe that QQQQ will drop at least another 3-4 bucks a share.  I'm looking at 11500 for DJIA, 1200-1210 for SP500, 2050-2070 for the NASDAQ100 for support, and I will probably be buying some calls here hoping that other market participants have the same idea and give me a quick double up.  

After such a extremely long bull run, this correction is going to hurt...unless you're short or out.  

As many of you know, I'm short EWT in a massive way.  We're going to print 13.51....or so.  



Yep, this could run a little longer than I originally thought.  

I sold 100 MCP for a 5% gain and bought 30 more POT and 1000 WAVX.

Jim

Link Posted: 2/24/2011 7:26:32 PM EDT
[#23]
Quoted:
My accounts are up between 50-100% up for the year, so I'm not to unhappy with this breakdown.  In fact, I think the last 5 days have given more profits than any other such period in my life.  

IMO, we're not even close to a short term bottom.  I believe that QQQQ will drop at least another 3-4 bucks a share.  I'm looking at 11500 for DJIA, 1200-1210 for SP500, 2050-2070 for the NASDAQ100 for support, and I will probably be buying some calls here hoping that other market participants have the same idea and give me a quick double up.  

After such a extremely long bull run, this correction is going to hurt...unless you're short or out.  

As many of you know, I'm short EWT in a massive way.  We're going to print 13.51....or so.  





I had some cash become available about 6 weeks ago, so the portfolio I'm discussing has only been invested since the middle of January. I'm no wizard, as I'm sure you can tell but common sense told me that after this big run, a correction was coming. I have no experience playing the down side, so my plan was simply to make a few percent here and there, until a buying opportunity presented itself. Above all though, I'm making sure I don't lose money when that happens.


Having stops set too tight, and not buying a couple of stocks because I thought the top was here cost me some profits, but I think I'm learning from my mistakes and I'm up a few percent over one month. Not much to brag about, but if I can get to this point next year, and be up 25-30% I'll be satisfied. More would be great, but we'll see!

FWIW, reading what guys like you, Omar, and a few others have to say is helping me figure this all out!

Thanks!
Link Posted: 2/24/2011 7:58:51 PM EDT
[#24]


I'm a relative newb to this space.  Pulled out in 2006 and just getting back in for a variety of reasons, and at that with a relatively small amount.



I'm curious why y'all view C (in particular) and POT so favorably?  While neither appears either great or terrible based on the data available to me via fidelity's site, I'm sure I'm missing something.  Would anyone care to take the time to enlighten a born-again newb?



Thanks,

-Slice




Link Posted: 2/25/2011 9:25:04 AM EDT
[#25]
Link Posted: 2/25/2011 11:27:25 AM EDT
[#26]
Was this our big pullback this week?!  12300 down to 12000 and back to 12130 already?  Anyone else think this is going to satisfy most people and we'll see another run up and just have to wait for a bigger correction later?

I just moved my $5k for this year into my IRA, and upped my brokerage account by $2000.  Now I'm sitting on all that cash waiting for the real pullback.
Link Posted: 2/25/2011 11:50:16 AM EDT
[#27]



Quoted:


Was this our big pullback this week?! 12300 down to 12000 and back to 12130 already?  Anyone else think this is going to satisfy most people and we'll see another run up and just have to wait for a bigger correction later?



I just moved my $5k for this year into my IRA, and upped my brokerage account by $2000.  Now I'm sitting on all that cash waiting for the real pullback.


I'm ok with that



 
Link Posted: 2/25/2011 5:19:10 PM EDT
[#28]
Quoted:

I'm a relative newb to this space.  Pulled out in 2006 and just getting back in for a variety of reasons, and at that with a relatively small amount.

I'm curious why y'all view C (in particular) and POT so favorably?  While neither appears either great or terrible based on the data available to me via fidelity's site, I'm sure I'm missing something.  Would anyone care to take the time to enlighten a born-again newb?

Thanks,
-Slice



Here is some of what I've been reading about POT, AGU, and MOS.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/220638-three-fertilizer-stocks-poised-for-growth?source=qp_investment_views

http://seekingalpha.com/article/254191-9-agriculture-stocks-to-consider-before-the-middle-east-dust-settles?source=qp_article

I've been reading similar info in other sources, that was just easiest to find. Sorry for the cold links.

Here are a couple of others that I like, although I think VDE is a bit expensive right now due to the Middle east events.

https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/snapshot?FundId=0951&FundIntExt=INT

https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/snapshot?FundId=0955&FundIntExt=INT

https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/snapshot?FundId=0954&FundIntExt=INT

I figure if/when a pullback comes, all of these will drop and I want to get back in then.

As for C, for me it's a shot in the dark. It's dirt cheap, and if they hopefully get their house in order soon, it could really take off.
I also see that it's been bouncing up and down several percent at a time, so if you wanted you could probably make a bit trading off that.
Link Posted: 3/1/2011 12:32:19 PM EDT
[#29]
Rebought and sold some stuff.  The WY was for the 10K portfolio.

03/01/11   3:16 PM EST      Buy 100 CHK Executed @ $33.6384        
03/01/11   2:50 PM EST      Buy 100 WY Executed @ $23.3684        
03/01/11   12:03 PM EST     Sell 90 POT Executed @ $61          
03/01/11   11:50 AM EST     Buy 150 TIE Executed @ $18.12        
03/01/11   8:49 AM EST      Buy 100 CEL Executed @ $30.09      
02/28/11   1:28 PM EST      Buy 1000 DNP Executed @ $9.4798
Link Posted: 3/1/2011 4:26:07 PM EDT
[#30]
Quoted:
Rebought and sold some stuff.  The WY was for the 10K portfolio.

03/01/11   3:16 PM EST      Buy 100 CHK Executed @ $33.6384        
03/01/11   2:50 PM EST      Buy 100 WY Executed @ $23.3684        
03/01/11   12:03 PM EST     Sell 90 POT Executed @ $61          
03/01/11   11:50 AM EST     Buy 150 TIE Executed @ $18.12        
03/01/11   8:49 AM EST      Buy 100 CEL Executed @ $30.09      
02/28/11   1:28 PM EST      Buy 1000 DNP Executed @ $9.4798



Omar, if you don't mind me asking why did you dump the POT ?

Link Posted: 3/1/2011 5:11:46 PM EDT
[#31]
Quoted:
Quoted:
Rebought and sold some stuff.  The WY was for the 10K portfolio.

03/01/11   3:16 PM EST      Buy 100 CHK Executed @ $33.6384        
03/01/11   2:50 PM EST      Buy 100 WY Executed @ $23.3684        
03/01/11   12:03 PM EST     Sell 90 POT Executed @ $61          
03/01/11   11:50 AM EST     Buy 150 TIE Executed @ $18.12        
03/01/11   8:49 AM EST      Buy 100 CEL Executed @ $30.09      
02/28/11   1:28 PM EST      Buy 1000 DNP Executed @ $9.4798



Omar, if you don't mind me asking why did you dump the POT ?



I only sold some.  

I have 300 more and will buy another 100 on a pull back.

It's a strategy I've used for the last two years.  

I keep a core position and trade around it, selling into rallies (most of the time) and buying into pullbacks.

I was up a good bit on that block and took it off the table.

POT ran up a lot recently and high fliers usually get taken out and shot when things go south.  

Just watch what happens to high flying tech stocks if we continue down over the next few weeks.  I'm hoping FFIV gets shot again so I can buy it back (love the volatility)

Most of what I bought are high yielders.  

The further they fall, the more likely funds will come in and buy them (CEL, DNP, WY).  

DNP pays monthly $65/1000 shares, so I get paid while I'm waiting.  

I'll probably make more (approx $300) trading it off in a few days than holding for the div.

I bought it close to the monthly low, as it trades in a channel, like many div stocks do.  So  I trade the spread.  This too, has made me a lot of money in the last year.  

If you go into Yahoo Finance and type a ticker in for a stock, click on "historical prices", you can study the patterns of these stocks.  I try to buy them a few days after they pay the div, as that's usually the low point for the month.
Link Posted: 3/2/2011 8:07:23 AM EDT
[#32]
Buy to Open: 40 contracts of TXN 37 April puts. Filled at 1.57.  

I have a stop here on any daily close above 36.75, and have a downside target of 34+.  I love this setup. Very nice risk/reward profile, very close to a longer term top which has failed once.  If it goes higher, then I get out with minimal losses, but if it breaks to the downside, I'll triple up at least.  

This would be a great spot to just go short if you were so inclined.  Tons of resistance at 36.5, and with the market rolling over, this could be a winner.
Link Posted: 3/4/2011 4:42:01 PM EDT
[#33]

I decided to clear out of MCP into the rally on 3 Mar and before earnings on 15 March, as they will probably suck.

I'll try to reenter MCP in the low 40's.

Picked more POT up and unloaded CEL

03/04/11   Bought       100 of POT @ $60.8288
03/04/11   Sold        -100 of CEL @ $30.8312  
03/03/11   Sold        100 of MCP @ $50.50
Link Posted: 3/4/2011 7:49:24 PM EDT
[#34]
Quoted:

I decided to clear out of MCP into the rally on 3 Mar and before earnings on 15 March, as they will probably suck.

I'll try to reenter MCP in the low 40's.

Picked more POT up and unloaded CEL

03/04/11   Bought       100 of POT @ $60.8288
03/04/11   Sold        -100 of CEL @ $30.8312  
03/03/11   Sold        100 of MCP @ $50.50


Confused as to why you reentered into POT so quickly.  Your rebuy is only $0.17 lower than the price was on the 90 shares you just sold a few days ago.  At those prices, the commission on the sell and buy orders would have eaten up any difference.  Did you collect a dividend on CEL, or were you just wanting to redeploy the capital while you still had a small gain?

Link Posted: 3/4/2011 9:05:58 PM EDT
[#35]
Quoted:
Quoted:

I decided to clear out of MCP into the rally on 3 Mar and before earnings on 15 March, as they will probably suck.

I'll try to reenter MCP in the low 40's.

Picked more POT up and unloaded CEL

03/04/11   Bought       100 of POT @ $60.8288
03/04/11   Sold        -100 of CEL @ $30.8312  
03/03/11   Sold        100 of MCP @ $50.50


Confused as to why you reentered into POT so quickly.  Your rebuy is only $0.17 lower than the price was on the 90 shares you just sold a few days ago.  At those prices, the commission on the sell and buy orders would have eaten up any difference.  Did you collect a dividend on CEL, or were you just wanting to redeploy the capital while you still had a small gain?



I redeployed capital on CEL and made 3x the div.  I wanted to bank some cash - it was a precautionary move.  I'm also worried that the ME crisis could push CEL lower and re-evaluated if the div is safe.  There's enough doubt in my mind that I decided to sell.  I don't plan on re-buying.

With POT, it didn't drop as much as I wanted and I decided to rebuy when it rose off its bottom for the day.   I was hoping it would drop 3-5 points.

I'll buy more if it drops to 55, but right now, I have my positions filled on it and CHK.

I'm also planning on selling DNP if it gains another 30 cents, which it should in the next two weeks.

Link Posted: 3/5/2011 6:12:50 PM EDT
[#36]
Link Posted: 3/8/2011 5:01:38 AM EDT
[#37]
Quoted:
Buy to Open: 40 contracts of TXN 37 April puts. Filled at 1.57.  

I have a stop here on any daily close above 36.75, and have a downside target of 34+.  I love this setup. Very nice risk/reward profile, very close to a longer term top which has failed once.  If it goes higher, then I get out with minimal losses, but if it breaks to the downside, I'll triple up at least.  

This would be a great spot to just go short if you were so inclined.  Tons of resistance at 36.5, and with the market rolling over, this could be a winner.


Sell to Close 30 contracts @ 2.05.  Locked in a 1500.00 profit here, planning to reload those 30 contracts eventually.  Letting the last 10 contracts ride - no risk to original principle remaining on this trade.

ETA, purchased 300 April bull call spreads 40/44 (some were 41/45) on AKAM for .55-.61 each.  Risk 16k, total potential reward is 120k if AKAM can get back to the 200 day moving average. Yes, this is short term speculation, but I've been watching this stock for years...and I think I have a pretty good handle on the psychology of Akamai stockholders.  

BTW, I'm considering a short of AKAM if this does work its way back to the 200DMA
Link Posted: 3/10/2011 9:07:28 AM EDT
[#38]

We're out of the rest of our TXN short, got out this morning a touch above 34.  

Still short DIA with 130 put contracts (in the money).
Link Posted: 3/10/2011 5:12:31 PM EDT
[#39]
It's almost a blood in the streets moment.  

If POT goes to $48, I may pick up one more block.

03/10/11   Bought 100 of POT @ $53.9092
Link Posted: 3/10/2011 5:23:31 PM EDT
[#40]
Quoted:

ETA, purchased 300 April bull call spreads 40/44 (some were 41/45) on AKAM for .55-.61 each.  Risk 16k, total potential reward is 120k if AKAM can get back to the 200 day moving average. Yes, this is short term speculation, but I've been watching this stock for years...and I think I have a pretty good handle on the psychology of Akamai stockholders.  

BTW, I'm considering a short of AKAM if this does work its way back to the 200DMA


Wow.  

That's ballsy.

I think tech overall is going to continue to take hits until the ME settles down, even though tech has no exposure.  

It's more to do with flight to safety and investors protecting gains by selling their high fliers and moving into div producers for a while.

I would be concerned about fighting the tape here, however, no guts no glory!


Link Posted: 3/10/2011 6:16:07 PM EDT
[#41]
Omar, this isn't a straight bullish bet, but part of a hedged position.

I'm long AKAM (stated position), long CSCO, short qqqq, short SMH, short 13,000 shares (synthetically) of DIA, short XLE, short XOM.  Overall very short, but more than half cash.    My accounts hit another all time high today.  

The way I see it, there's a good chance of a steep correction (by that I don't mean the 200 pt drop we had today, but more like 750 more down to 11250 on the DJIA).  As long as I'm right on one of the 2 (the long bets or the short bets), I'll make a bunch of money.  If we don't have this correction, then AKAM and CSCO should see some sort of reprieve.  

In my opinion, if we don't get a print of darn near 11000 on the dow, we won't really clear out the dumb money. If the correction doesn't happen, we'll have to wait to deal with the pain.  If Saudi Arabia gets pulled into the ME mess, oil will continue its spike and the indicies should get hammered more.
Link Posted: 3/10/2011 6:56:29 PM EDT
[#42]
A guy I work with is a multimillionaire/experienced and knowledgable trader that thinks we'll bottom at 11500.  

He's also very tech savvy.  I probably won't see him until next week, but I'm going to get his assessment of AKAM.

I've never traded options, but have occasionally considered doing so mostly for downside protection.
Link Posted: 3/11/2011 7:02:40 AM EDT
[#43]
I need to look at the options stuff a little more.. I asked a guy about it that came by my office the other day b/c he said he did it. I've never really researched it. Its funny yall started talking about it b/c what made me ask him was reading through some of bigjohns posts.
Link Posted: 3/14/2011 12:11:33 PM EDT
[#44]
I see AVL has dropped off a good amount.. I didn't notice any news or reason for this. Whats yalls opinion on it?

Watching GE at the moment.
Link Posted: 3/14/2011 5:12:17 PM EDT
[#45]
Quoted:
I see AVL has dropped off a good amount.. I didn't notice any news or reason for this. Whats yalls opinion on it?

Watching GE at the moment.


Most of the mining stocks appear to going down in concert with uranium miners.

I think AVL is going a little lower and I'm looking to pick more up.

I would also stay away from GE for a while.  Anything with nuke power is going to freeze up for the short term and probably has long term consequences.  

There will be an active effort to kill/degrade nuclear power by environmental groups.

On the other hand, natural gas and lumber are poised to benefit.

I bought some more CHK premarket today.

Link Posted: 3/15/2011 4:38:11 PM EDT
[#46]
Sold SDS that I'd had for a few days this morning at it's peak! Now I'm all cash, and looking to see what happens tomorrow.

Omar, would you mind sharing what you are looking for in the next entry point for HIX, either a date or price point?

Thanks!
Link Posted: 3/15/2011 5:14:31 PM EDT
[#47]
Quoted:
Sold SDS that I'd had for a few days this morning at it's peak! Now I'm all cash, and looking to see what happens tomorrow.

Omar, would you mind sharing what you are looking for in the next entry point for HIX, either a date or price point?

Thanks!


I've been waiting for this to pull back to around $9.50, but it didn't so I bought DNP instead.  I have 200 HIX DRIPed into the 10K portfolio, which I also added 100 AVL @ 5.99 in pre market this morning..  

Both HIX and DNP are high yield and money flows to them in uncertainty.

This is my watch list which contains a lot of high yield funds intermixed with stocks I like to trade.  When some are up, I sell them and buy others that are down that same day.  The monthly div ones usually hit their monthly low a few days after they pay the div.

AVL CHK DNP ETY FSC HGT HIO HIX IGD MCP MHY PCL POT PSEC PTNR PVX REMX RIT RWT SD TICC TIE VOD VRSN WY

This is my watch list, which I use to monitor sectors I'm interested in.  Everything but the short ETFs was red today, but some closed green:

^VIX AA AONE ATI AVL BA BNS BRK-B CAT CHK CSCO DDM DIA DOG DXD EP FAS FAZ FCX FFIV GE GLD INTC LOW MDR MO MON MOS POT PPL SDS SHAW SKF SLB SPY TIE TNH TPL TSLA TVIX URE UYG WAVX WM

I have other lists that are all tech, all oil services, etc, I like to monitor if a whole sector sells off and not just my stock in that sector, so when all the fertilizer stocks sold off, so did POT.  I bought more on the pullback.  That's hard for some people to do if they're already down, but that' when I buy.

Link Posted: 3/16/2011 4:15:52 AM EDT
[#48]
Quoted:

I have 200 HIX DRIPed into the 10K portfolio, which I also added 100 AVL @ 5.99 in pre market this morning..  


How does one buy shares in pre or post market trading?  Everytime I submit an order before or after market hours, I get a notice telling me markets are closed and my order won't execute until they open.
Link Posted: 3/16/2011 4:32:43 AM EDT
[#49]
Quoted:
Quoted:

I have 200 HIX DRIPed into the 10K portfolio, which I also added 100 AVL @ 5.99 in pre market this morning..  


How does one buy shares in pre or post market trading?  Everytime I submit an order before or after market hours, I get a notice telling me markets are closed and my order won't execute until they open.


The only time my premarket option shows is during the time we are actually in pre-market, which is two hours before and two hours after close.  So right now at 06:30 El Paso time, the market is open for pre market trades, but will stop in another hour for the regular trading day.

Both POT and CHK are up in pre market :)

Be very careful using premarket, as the trading is thin and may not represent where the market is going.  Yesterday, when I saw the DOW down -271, I knew panic had set in, so I bought some AVL on the cheap.

ALWAYS USE LIMIT ORDERS IN PREMARKET.  

If you sell or buy with a market order, you stand a very good chance of getting taken to the cleaners.

Jim
Link Posted: 3/16/2011 6:02:33 AM EDT
[#50]
I've gone ahead and hedged all put options on DIA by selling March 115, 115.75, 117 puts.   The expire Friday, took in 4100 cash, and they should all expire worthless.  I also hedged XOM below 80 on half my short position, and I got .50 per share for insurance below 80 that's only good until Friday.  Took in another 1000 cash, all time value.  

In fact, I'm betting money that the market makers pin XOM at 80 for option expiration.

ETA: Went long BBY (100 contracts) with strike at 35 good till June.  Risk 8390, we should print 40 for BBY, so total reward is 50,000.  I figure its at least a 50/50, so we're getting good odds.
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