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NJ, USA
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Posted: 3/29/2024 8:22:26 AM EDT
[#1]
Just because we can, doesn’t mean we should.
It’s time. |
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Posted: 3/29/2024 8:25:00 AM EDT
[#2]
Guess we will find out in 2029.
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OH, USA
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Posted: 3/29/2024 8:29:40 AM EDT
[#3]
With early warning, absolutely.
The issue is the early warning, if the asteroid is a few years from hitting us, a few star ships at max thrusters would easily move it out of the way. Few months inbound? Nothing we can do. |
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Posted: 3/29/2024 8:32:30 AM EDT
[#4]
Google "dart mission".
They've actually added a pretty fun animation to the search results for that. |
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Posted: 3/29/2024 8:33:07 AM EDT
[#5]
Bruce Willis is still alive, so there's always a chance...
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Posted: 3/29/2024 8:35:32 AM EDT
[#6]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Grendel-OK: The DART hit the asteroid. But did it do anything? Hitting an object is one thing. Hitting it with enough force or being able to change it's orbit is another. Surely there's someone on Arfcom who has worked on the Planetary Defense System that knows something. We have people everywhere. One of you guys knows that math and the science. The impact had a greater than anticipated effect on the orbit of the asteroid. |
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Posted: 3/29/2024 8:36:15 AM EDT
[Last Edit: HeavyMetal]
[#7]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Grendel-OK: Would that actually work though? Do we have enough nukes to make a difference for a comet that is miles wide? And don't nukes behave differently in space, since there's no atmosphere to carry the shockwave? The amount of force necessary is exponentially less if you intercept it far enough out. A cosmic love tap will cause a miss. |
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Posted: 3/29/2024 8:39:03 AM EDT
[Last Edit: runcible]
[#8]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Cardplayer: I hope not.  Fuck me... that was the very first thing that came to my mind. |
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Posted: 3/29/2024 8:40:59 AM EDT
[#9]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By JimBobJersey: Just because we can, doesn’t mean we should. It’s time. Then lead by example. |
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Posted: 3/29/2024 8:42:06 AM EDT
[#10]
An environmental impact study will be made first. This will take exactly long enough for the comet to kill us.
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Posted: 3/29/2024 8:46:01 AM EDT
[#11]
I hope not.
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Posted: 3/29/2024 8:46:01 AM EDT
[#12]
A bunch of hype, for sure. Overall, this is just stupid. They took a pebble and hit a rock half the size of the cargo ship Dali. Other than making a splatter mark on a rock, what did it really do? Would a tiny drone smashing into the Dali have caused it to miss the bridge?
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Posted: 3/29/2024 8:49:11 AM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Grendel-OK: But do enough of our nuclear warheads actually still work to make that possible? Lol wut? |
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Posted: 3/29/2024 8:49:42 AM EDT
[#14]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Subpar: We had to fake the moon landing. Doubtful we could pull off deflecting anything bigger than a Lada. Fake a moon landing? When did you go off your meds? |
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PA, USA
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Posted: 3/29/2024 8:59:01 AM EDT
[#15]
depending on how big and how far, maybe. But they would probably argue for too long on who's responsible for it. State, city, federal... or should we leave it up to God? We might nudge it just enough to narrowly miss us... and take out the moon which would end up killing us also? Or it could fly into the sun causing a massive solar flare that would kill the internet and we would all starve to death unless we had emergency food storage hidden in our back yards... but at least there won't be any more Joe Biden.
 Attached File |
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Posted: 3/29/2024 8:59:08 AM EDT
[#16]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By spork: Imagine hijacking asteroids and using them as discreet WMDs. Hollywood was doing that in Sci Fi movies in the 50's and 60's. |
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PA, USA
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Posted: 3/29/2024 9:11:32 AM EDT
[#17]
Too worried about inputting Denise's off of.little bous and re creating definitions of.words.
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Posted: 3/29/2024 9:19:43 AM EDT
[#18]
Don't you dare.
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UT, USA
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Posted: 3/29/2024 9:23:59 AM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By whollyshite: Bruce Willis is still alive, so there's always a chance... The only guy I know with a worse brain than Bidens. 
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Posted: 3/29/2024 9:32:17 AM EDT
[#20]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Chisum: A bunch of hype, for sure. Overall, this is just stupid. They took a pebble and hit a rock half the size of the cargo ship Dali. Other than making a splatter mark on a rock, what did it really do? Would a tiny drone smashing into the Dali have caused it to miss the bridge? It depends on how far out you hit it. And the impactor had far more energy than a tiny drone. It was more akin to a rod from God hit. More like hitting the Dali with a Volkswagen Beetle going Mach 20. |
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Posted: 3/29/2024 9:35:37 AM EDT
[#21]
OP asks this question in a forum where probably a third of the members pray for this very event every day.
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MD, USA
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Posted: 3/29/2024 9:39:28 AM EDT
[#22]
Hope not. It's beyond time....
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AZ, USA
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Posted: 3/29/2024 9:51:59 AM EDT
[#23]
I'd be calculating deflections or adjustments to smaller objects to hit the other country.
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AZ, USA
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Posted: 3/29/2024 9:53:32 AM EDT
[#24]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By spork: Imagine hijacking asteroids and using them as discreet WMDs. Stick A Spork in them. We should party |
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Posted: 3/29/2024 9:55:17 AM EDT
[Last Edit: FoxValleyTacDriver]
[#25]
Absolutely not.
The amount of energy needed to move something that is big enough and moving fast enough to take us out is beyond our grasp. Besides, the bigger issue is seeing it. The meteor that took out the dinosaurs would have been pretty difficult to spot before impact was imminent. Even an asteroid with a width of a football field could take out the city of New York and the greater surrounding area. |
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Posted: 3/29/2024 10:01:32 AM EDT
[#26]
I don’t think our leading physics and propulsion institutions have achieved a level of diversity yet to provide the strength that we need to achieve that
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Posted: 3/29/2024 10:25:13 AM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Grendel-OK: But do enough of our nuclear warheads actually still work to make that possible? They do, but its primarily radiation. You don't really have any blast or thermal effects like you do in the atmosphere. |
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Posted: 3/29/2024 10:43:40 AM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By HeavyMetal: It depends on how far out you hit it. And the impactor had far more energy than a tiny drone. It was more akin to a rod from God hit. More like hitting the Dali with a Volkswagen Beetle going Mach 20. For those who buy into the theory, a planet-killing mile-wide meteor striking earth would be traveling at about Mach 40. The DART craft slammed into the space gravel pit, Dimorphos, going at about Mach 18. It is illogical to expect a solid rock asteroid to be as affected as a space gravel pit. Still, it was a baby step in the right direction but not a solution. |
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Posted: 3/29/2024 11:04:16 AM EDT
[#29]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Grendel-OK: But do enough of our nuclear warheads actually still work to make that possible? @Grendel-OK When the DART craft slammed into a gravel pit, Dimorphos did chip off a few boulders and slightly change its orbit. Dimorphos is a moon of asteroid 65803 Didymos. Hitting a more solid asteroid is not going to have the same effect. The meteor that supposedly slammed into earth and caused near-extinction was estimated to be a mile wide and traveling at about Mach 30 with a force equal to a 1 million megaton bomb. I don't think all the nukes in the world can equal that. The one problem I have with the experiment was it moved Dimorphos closer to asteroid 65803 Didymos not further away. Yikes! |
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Posted: 3/29/2024 11:19:59 AM EDT
[#30]
We probably have the tech to deflect one, just not the technology to detect it soon enough.
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Posted: 3/29/2024 11:25:54 AM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By gtofan: Only people who don't understand proper exposure, (light falloff is logarithmic) depth of field, & aperature in photography, and how parallel lines don't appear parallel believe Apollo 11 landing was fake. Example....You cannot expose distant light sources when exposing brighter, closer objects. This was film, not a sensitive digital sensor. Carry on. In English do you think Apollo 11 moon landing was fake or real? |
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USA
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Posted: 3/29/2024 11:26:34 AM EDT
[#32]
Only start to panic when the important people start building bunkers on habitable land surrounded by water.
Like hawaii, if you see a billionaire building an actual survival bunker there, it's time to panic. |
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Posted: 3/29/2024 11:28:11 AM EDT
[#33]
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Posted: 3/29/2024 11:28:40 AM EDT
[#34]
If we deploy enough box fans to create a 3 knot crosswind that will be enough to blow it off course.
Exactly like what happened to the ship that took out the FSK bridge. |
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Posted: 3/29/2024 11:29:32 AM EDT
[#35]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By BoomBoom: Now, no. 200 years from now, maybe. |
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Posted: 3/29/2024 11:31:17 AM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Grendel-OK: Would that actually work though? Do we have enough nukes to make a difference for a comet that is miles wide? And don't nukes behave differently in space, since there's no atmosphere to carry the shockwave? Also no attenuation of heat. Blow up left side and the ejected, vaporized mass will kick the remainder to the right. The vaporized mass will reconvene as sand and create a fantastic light show in the night sky. Jerry Pournelle RIP wrote about what could be done. We was a NASA scientist before writing SF. |
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Posted: 3/29/2024 11:36:15 AM EDT
[#37]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By jhereg: 6 months and throw money at SpaceX while keeping the government agencies off their back? Launch as many as you need whenever you need. I'd give them a decent chance. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By jhereg: Originally Posted By BoomBoom: Now, no. 200 years from now, maybe. Probably not even all that much money, relatively speaking. Using DART as a testbed build a Super DART. Much more mass, possibly even a thermonuclear payload. Launch that fucker on a Falcon Heavy instead of a F-9. Even a massive solid metal asteroid would probably be deflected by something like that. If that doesn't work use Falcon 9 to launch whatever projectiles at hand for as long as possible. Volley fire. After all, real life isn't a movie where such things have to fail for either dramatic or comedic effect. |
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Posted: 3/29/2024 11:40:44 AM EDT
[#38]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Underscore_O_Three: We can deploy mylar sails where solar winds will blow it off course. Deploy bigger mylar sails where the solar winds can move the target (Earth) It is easier to 'duck' than block every bullet coming at you... |
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Posted: 3/29/2024 11:40:59 AM EDT
[#39]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Hesperus: Probably not even all that much money, relatively speaking. Using DART as a testbed build a Super DART. Much more mass, possibly even a thermonuclear payload. Launch that fucker on a Falcon Heavy instead of a F-9. Even a massive solid metal asteroid would probably be deflected by something like that. If that doesn't work use Falcon 9 to launch whatever projectiles at hand for as long as possible. Volley fire. After all, real life isn't a movie where such things have to fail for either dramatic or comedic effect. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Hesperus: Originally Posted By jhereg: Originally Posted By BoomBoom: Now, no. 200 years from now, maybe. Probably not even all that much money, relatively speaking. Using DART as a testbed build a Super DART. Much more mass, possibly even a thermonuclear payload. Launch that fucker on a Falcon Heavy instead of a F-9. Even a massive solid metal asteroid would probably be deflected by something like that. If that doesn't work use Falcon 9 to launch whatever projectiles at hand for as long as possible. Volley fire. After all, real life isn't a movie where such things have to fail for either dramatic or comedic effect. When typing that I was thinking the government agencies off their back and the authorization being a bigger deal than the money. |
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SC, USA
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Posted: 3/29/2024 11:44:05 AM EDT
[#40]
Kamala and Butti are in charge of the program.
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Posted: 3/29/2024 11:45:06 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Hesperus]
[#41]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By jhereg: When typing that I was thinking the government agencies off their back and the authorization being a bigger deal than the money. Possibly, but the threat of imminent horrifying death of you and everyone you know is a pretty good motivation to get the paperwork done. Heck I wouldn't be shocked to find out that Elon has a Super DART hidden in a vault someplace for just such an occasion. Again, this is real life. Not a movie where politicians and bureaucrats are too dumb to live. |
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SC, USA
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Posted: 3/29/2024 11:50:30 AM EDT
[#42]
The odds are any comet that entered the inner system would take a long time before it became a threat. For example, the Taurid comet seems to have taken about 12,000 years from when it started to calve until we caught any debris, and now, another 12,000+ years later, we pass through its debris field four times a year.
Even that was sort of unlucky because most objects that cross Jupiter's orbit are going to hit the much larger gravity well first. The worst-case scenario of a comet coming straight in and hitting Earth on the first pass would be a millions-to-one shot even when there is a new comet. So long as we get at least one orbit's warning we won't have any trouble deflecting a comet. The much more likely scenario is a relatively small asteroid we haven't spotted hitting us with little or no warning, but the potential damage is more limited because we think we know where everything big and Earth-crossing is. |
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USA
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Posted: 3/29/2024 11:51:20 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Rubik]
[#43]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By MarkNH: Roughly speaking, via google search not revealing national secrets, 1 megaton = half mile crater(blast not shockwave, in terms of volume starship can carry 4+ times the volume of a land launched minuteman 3 that was artificially limited to 3 warheads. If it was the end of the world potentially, with a few years notice, I would be comfortable that we would could kill something 50 to 100 miles across with no consequences other than the economic cost. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By MarkNH: Originally Posted By Grendel-OK: Would that actually work though? Do we have enough nukes to make a difference for a comet that is miles wide? And don't nukes behave differently in space, since there's no atmosphere to carry the shockwave? Roughly speaking, via google search not revealing national secrets, 1 megaton = half mile crater(blast not shockwave, in terms of volume starship can carry 4+ times the volume of a land launched minuteman 3 that was artificially limited to 3 warheads. If it was the end of the world potentially, with a few years notice, I would be comfortable that we would could kill something 50 to 100 miles across with no consequences other than the economic cost. We have the capability. All we'd have to do is nudge it just a little... slow it down or speed it up by blasting some material off the asteroid and it will miss us by a million miles. BUT, the far more preferable approach would be to capture it and bring it into orbit around the Moon so we can mine it and build Interplanetary infrastructure. |
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Posted: 3/29/2024 11:58:07 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Scratch45]
[#44]
Why has no one discussed the difference between comets and asteroids?
I think we could probably deflect a meteor, giving enough warning time. A comet, I am less sure. Asteroids are harder to track, slower, and denser. Comets are easier to track, faster, and more nebulous. I think a comet strike is less likely than an asteroid strike. Comets are made of ice and dust while asteroids are made of rock. However, because the long-period comets move on highly eccentric and highly inclined orbits, their mean impact velocities are much higher than for other celestial bodies—i.e., asteroids. The average long-period comet will strike Earth with a velocity of 32.1 miles per second. If the impact velocity is weighted by the probability of impact for a particular orbit, then the weighted mean impact velocity increases to 33.9 miles per second. Those values are much higher than those for Earth-crossing asteroids, which are typically only about 9 miles per second. |
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Posted: 3/29/2024 12:02:52 PM EDT
[#45]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Chisum: For those who buy into the theory, a planet-killing mile-wide meteor striking earth would be traveling at about Mach 40. The DART craft slammed into the space gravel pit, Dimorphos, going at about Mach 18. It is illogical to expect a solid rock asteroid to be as affected as a space gravel pit. Still, it was a baby step in the right direction but not a solution. Dart also wasn’t a nuke. |
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USA
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Posted: 3/29/2024 12:05:55 PM EDT
[#46]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Scratch45: Why has no one discussed the difference between comets and asteroids? I think we could probably deflect a meteor, giving enough warning time. A comet, I am less sure. Asteroids are harder to track, slower, and denser. Comets are easier to track, faster, and more nebulous. I think a comet strike is less likely than an asteroid strike. Comets are made of ice and dust while asteroids are made of rock. However, because the long-period comets move on highly eccentric and highly inclined orbits, their mean impact velocities are much higher than for other celestial bodies—i.e., asteroids. The average long-period comet will strike Earth with a velocity of 32.1 miles per second. If the impact velocity is weighted by the probability of impact for a particular orbit, then the weighted mean impact velocity increases to 33.9 miles per second. Those values are much higher than those for Earth-crossing asteroids, which are typically only about 9 miles per second. Yeah, the method of Deflection (or capture, as I would advocate) would depend on the structure of the object. If it's an Comet then using the water content to gas off and create thrust would be the better approach rather than blowing it apart and potentially creating an even worse problem. Rocky objects would need to use a different approach. But speed probably doesn't matter so much as composition in terms of how we would modify its trajectory. |
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Posted: 3/29/2024 12:06:24 PM EDT
[#47]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Chisum: @Grendel-OK When the DART craft slammed into a gravel pit, Dimorphos did chip off a few boulders and slightly change its orbit. Dimorphos is a moon of asteroid 65803 Didymos. Hitting a more solid asteroid is not going to have the same effect. The meteor that supposedly slammed into earth and caused near-extinction was estimated to be a mile wide and traveling at about Mach 30 with a force equal to a 1 million megaton bomb. I don't think all the nukes in the world can equal that. The one problem I have with the experiment was it moved Dimorphos closer to asteroid 65803 Didymos not further away. Yikes! If you hit it far enough away and change its velocity by a microscopic amount, it will miss. You only have to slow it down enough go the earth to move seven thousand miles to cause a miss. Or speed it enough to arrive before the earth gets to that point. All you are doing it altering the timing of things by a tiny amount. The trick is detecting it earlier enough. The earlier you intercept it, the less energy you need to cause a miss. |
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Posted: 3/29/2024 12:07:53 PM EDT
[#48]
I hope not. It’s long past time some cataclysmic event ends us.
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Posted: 3/29/2024 12:11:20 PM EDT
[#49]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By GhettoCowboy: If I were in charge it would go down like this, assume 1 month notice of an incoming planet killer: It should be possible to get every ICBM the world has into a low orbit, in a week. Then we try to maneuver them into a single spot, generaly over the center of the Pacific Ocean (sorry). Then we spend the next week trying to figure out how to set them all off at the exact same moment for maximum deflection. All the people under the blast zone have a few weeks to find a way underground or evacuate. The mega-megaton multi-blast space detonations may prevent the comet from making direct impact. There may be global earthquakes and massive tidal waves…a great flood. Then we start over again. NO. Fewer nukes farther out and simply deflect it so it doesnt hit at all. If the bullet hits a twig at the muzzle of gun and misses by a foot it it WAY better than seeing if the phone book /kitchen tile armor works... |
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Posted: 3/29/2024 12:15:46 PM EDT
[#50]
Maybe or maybe not, but if it hits, women and minorities will be most affected.
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