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Posted: 3/29/2024 12:17:32 PM EDT
[#1]
Quote HistoryQuoted: It depends on how far out you hit it. And the impactor had far more energy than a tiny drone. It was more akin to a rod from God hit. More like hitting the Dali with a Volkswagen Beetle going Mach 20. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: A bunch of hype, for sure. Overall, this is just stupid. They took a pebble and hit a rock half the size of the cargo ship Dali. Other than making a splatter mark on a rock, what did it really do? Would a tiny drone smashing into the Dali have caused it to miss the bridge? It depends on how far out you hit it. And the impactor had far more energy than a tiny drone. It was more akin to a rod from God hit. More like hitting the Dali with a Volkswagen Beetle going Mach 20. Kinda odd question here, but would a Volvo 740 station wagon be better or worse? The beetle would "splatter" initially and strictly impart impact velocity on one external point over a short period of time, while the more solid(indestructable) volvo 740 wagon would penetrate and slowly shed parts/(fall off due to rusting) but more of a "shove". IE a "punch" vs a "shove" . wouldnt the shove be better for declection? |
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Posted: 3/29/2024 12:24:01 PM EDT
[#2]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Maybe or maybe not, but if it hits, women and minorities will be most affected. In before pre-reparations bill. |
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Posted: 3/29/2024 12:24:32 PM EDT
[#3]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Dart also wasn’t a nuke. Hate to tell you, but nukes really mostly make radiation in space, there is no air to create a blast wave in space, no atmosphere to propagate thermal effects. Unless you set it off right on the surface and vaporize a bunch of stuff, nukes really aren't doing a whole lot, and more than likely it would just break whatever you shot it at into a bunch of smaller impactors rather than deflect it. |
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Posted: 3/29/2024 12:41:26 PM EDT
[#4]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Hate to tell you, but nukes really mostly make radiation in space, there is no air to create a blast wave in space, no atmosphere to propagate thermal effects. Unless you set it off right on the surface and vaporize a bunch of stuff, nukes really aren't doing a whole lot, and more than likely it would just break whatever you shot it at into a bunch of smaller impactors rather than deflect it. And that's the way they would be used... Asteroids are generally loose because their gravity is a small fraction of what we have in Earth. It's more like a ball of gravel traveling through space, rather than a single, cohesive hard packed rock. Therefore, using a ground Penetrating warhead that burrows deep into the gravel and detonates will blow large amounts of material off into space and have the effect of creating thrust. It doesn't take much to have the desired effect. And a series of nukes would be very effective if used in this way. |
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Posted: 3/29/2024 12:44:32 PM EDT
[#5]
Quote HistoryQuoted: And that's the way they would be used... Asteroids are generally loose because their gravity is a small fraction of what we have in Earth. It's more like a ball of gravel traveling through space, rather than a single, cohesive hard packed rock. Therefore, using a ground Penetrating warhead that burrows deep into the gravel and detonates will blow large amounts of material off into space and have the effect of creating thrust. It doesn't take much to have the desired effect. And a series of nukes would be very effective if used in this way. I mean a nuke would likely just break it apart unless its something like a nickle/iron asteroid. |
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Posted: 3/29/2024 12:45:48 PM EDT
[#6]
We would have to know about wayyyyy ahead of time otherwise we're just turning a rifle round into a shotgun round.
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Posted: 3/29/2024 12:48:04 PM EDT
[#7]
Quote HistoryQuoted: If I were in charge it would go down like this, assume 1 month notice of an incoming planet killer: It should be possible to get every ICBM the world has into a low orbit, in a week. Then we try to maneuver them into a single spot, generaly over the center of the Pacific Ocean (sorry). Then we spend the next week trying to figure out how to set them all off at the exact same moment for maximum deflection. All the people under the blast zone have a few weeks to find a way underground or evacuate. The mega-megaton multi-blast space detonations may prevent the comet from making direct impact. There may be global earthquakes and massive tidal waves…a great flood. Then we start over again. Low earth orbit? we still die. Unless we do it a a great distance form earth, you are not deflecting anything enough to matter. |
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Posted: 3/29/2024 1:13:38 PM EDT
[#8]
If we find one on course to hit us, our best bet is to send up a rocket full of poor, brown people to orbit the cosmic body.
Send a note to Pelosi, Schumer, Graham, and McConnell that the poor, brown people discovered billions in oil and raw minerals on the comet. The DOD will have it down to pebble size rubble by the end of the week. |
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Posted: 3/29/2024 1:16:07 PM EDT
[#9]
As long as nobody fucks with that little asteroid I got on order.
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Posted: 3/29/2024 1:57:45 PM EDT
[#10]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I mean a nuke would likely just break it apart unless its something like a nickle/iron asteroid. Yes, and by doing so, it would change its trajectory enough that it wouldn't come close to us. |
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Posted: 3/29/2024 2:06:11 PM EDT
[#11]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I’m a little more optimistic in thinking within 20 years we should have that capability. It takes a lot of fuel to impart a small change in delta V. Starship can help deliver and if enough of them can be launched early enough to make a difference. Blowing them up doesn’t work, their gravity will just pull it back together. Deflection with lasers or sails etc can work but it has to be detected very very early. If it’s too close there is nothing to be done, doubtful we will even be told save for signs of the elite running for Mars or Bunkers. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Now, no. 200 years from now, maybe. I’m a little more optimistic in thinking within 20 years we should have that capability. It takes a lot of fuel to impart a small change in delta V. Starship can help deliver and if enough of them can be launched early enough to make a difference. Blowing them up doesn’t work, their gravity will just pull it back together. Deflection with lasers or sails etc can work but it has to be detected very very early. If it’s too close there is nothing to be done, doubtful we will even be told save for signs of the elite running for Mars or Bunkers. How big of a planet killer is the question. 10-15 kilometers ELE comet? Sure. 60-70 km? Getting a little dicey. A 100-1000 km planetoid? No, we’re fucked. |
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Posted: 3/29/2024 2:11:16 PM EDT
[#12]
Given enough advanced warning yes. Last minute? LOL we'd be f---ed.
In a true ELE event with enough notice the whole world would supply their best and brightest. Money would not be an issue. |
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Posted: 3/29/2024 2:20:37 PM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryDeflecting an asteroid with a diameter of 580 feet is completely different than deflecting a 46 mile across comet. |
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Posted: 3/29/2024 2:22:50 PM EDT
[#14]
Quote HistoryQuoted: /Marco Inaros has entered the chat I get that reference.#theexpanse |
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Posted: 3/29/2024 2:27:22 PM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Deflecting an asteroid with a diameter of 580 feet is completely different than deflecting a 46 mile across comet. True, but also objects that are 50 miles across are many many orders of magnitude less common. There is a high likelihood of a 500 foot object impacting the Earth sometime in the next 1,000,000 years. But there is virtually no chance that a 50 mile one will impact in that timeframe. I don't know why you would skip over on obvious solutions for the much more common problem just because a similar solution wouldn't work for something that has virtually no chance of happening. |
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Posted: 3/29/2024 3:06:41 PM EDT
[#16]
Quote Historylmao...sure it did... |
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Posted: 3/29/2024 3:21:42 PM EDT
[#17]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Absolutely not. The amount of energy needed to move something that is big enough and moving fast enough to take us out is beyond our grasp. Besides, the bigger issue is seeing it. The meteor that took out the dinosaurs would have been pretty difficult to spot before impact was imminent. Even an asteroid with a width of a football field could take out the city of New York and the greater surrounding area. NASA and other such orgs like ESA have a Near Earth Object watch. NASA's is called Sentry. With various predictions of their orbits, error-bars, and assessments of their likelihood of striking the Earth. Plus predictions for effects if we do get hit, which happens every day. Just usually not by things that are very large. If we could see a novel comet coming, and I mean novel in that it's new to our having observed it, and comet because they're usually bigger and faster than other meteoroids, we might be able to deflect it. Akin to the Casaba-Howitzer thread recently, you need a string of large nuclear devices, and a mechanism to couple their energy efficiently to a large mass, that you direct at the threatening body. A big enough hunk of plasma, moving fast enough, might impart enough delta-V to even something like Hale-Bopp to cause it to miss entirely. Causing it to calve Would Be Bad. Hale-Bopp would've been a truly apocalyptic event, had it impacted the Earth. Ballpark 2X10^25 J of energy, or 40-50 Dinosaur Killers. Bad day. |
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Posted: 3/29/2024 3:24:51 PM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Hate to tell you, but nukes really mostly make radiation in space, there is no air to create a blast wave in space, no atmosphere to propagate thermal effects. Unless you set it off right on the surface and vaporize a bunch of stuff, nukes really aren't doing a whole lot, and more than likely it would just break whatever you shot it at into a bunch of smaller impactors rather than deflect it. Most of the recent simulations show a reasonable sized nuke will stop most asteroids, including the gravel pile ones. So what if you break it into smaller one? You have altered their velocity and are now going to miss. Let the smaller ones miss. |
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Posted: 3/29/2024 3:25:18 PM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Also no attenuation of heat. Blow up left side and the ejected, vaporized mass will kick the remainder to the right. The vaporized mass will reconvene as sand and create a fantastic light show in the night sky. Jerry Pournelle RIP wrote about what could be done. We was a NASA scientist before writing SF. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Would that actually work though? Do we have enough nukes to make a difference for a comet that is miles wide? And don't nukes behave differently in space, since there's no atmosphere to carry the shockwave? Also no attenuation of heat. Blow up left side and the ejected, vaporized mass will kick the remainder to the right. The vaporized mass will reconvene as sand and create a fantastic light show in the night sky. Jerry Pournelle RIP wrote about what could be done. We was a NASA scientist before writing SF. You want it to miss, not hit. Even as sand. The thermal energy of that much mass being vaporized through re-entry would be a significant addition to the Earth's atmospheric thermal load all by itself. Re-radiation to space would help, but we'd experience some actual global warming. |
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Posted: 3/29/2024 3:28:10 PM EDT
[#20]
Quote HistoryQuoted: You want it to miss, not hit. Even as sand. The thermal energy of that much mass being vaporized through re-entry would be a significant addition to the Earth's atmospheric thermal load all by itself. Re-radiation to space would help, but we'd experience some actual global warming. What you are missing is the sand has had its velocity changed. Most of it’s going to miss now. It’s not like your hand passing through a pile of jello. |
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Posted: 3/29/2024 3:35:16 PM EDT
[#21]
Quote HistoryQuoted: What you are missing is the sand has had its velocity changed. Most of it’s going to miss now. It’s not like your hand passing through a pile of jello. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: You want it to miss, not hit. Even as sand. The thermal energy of that much mass being vaporized through re-entry would be a significant addition to the Earth's atmospheric thermal load all by itself. Re-radiation to space would help, but we'd experience some actual global warming. What you are missing is the sand has had its velocity changed. Most of it’s going to miss now. It’s not like your hand passing through a pile of jello. Depends, but you're mostly right. I was just referring to the truly astronomical amount of KE in something like a comet, and just absorbing that as heat only to the atmosphere would still be a really bad day. Fragmenting something like Apophis, OTOH, depending on how far away the event occurred, indeed, most of the frag misses us. And that which is left is much smaller and manageable. Contrast with a comet that might or might not hit us, but gets similarly fragmented and calves during a botched attempted movement operation. Now you definitely get hit by something, and when you start out with something the size of a comet nucleus, even smaller somethings are pretty bad. As we saw with Shoemaker-Levy. |
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Posted: 3/29/2024 3:37:26 PM EDT
[#22]
Comets are full of volatiles. Essentially, it’s a free rocket fuel factory. Make comet deflect itself.
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Posted: 3/29/2024 4:25:45 PM EDT
[#23]
If our backs were against the wall with a sizeable Asteroid or comet, we would build and launch a turbo-sized version of the Tzar Bomba 100 MT+.
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Posted: 3/29/2024 5:17:20 PM EDT
[#24]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Lol wut? The 20 megaton bombs are gone. Most of the megaton range is also gone. We have some 1 megaton b-83's left. They are talking about getting rid of them. Nobody is thinking of nuclear plowshares for planetary defense against undiscovered celestial bodies. |
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Posted: 3/29/2024 5:24:31 PM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryQuoted: They do, but its primarily radiation. You don't really have any blast or thermal effects like you do in the atmosphere. A thermonuclear warhead set off on the surface of an asteroid is going to liquify and gasify lots of matter. Comets in particular contain lots of frozen gasses. |
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Posted: 3/29/2024 5:30:14 PM EDT
[#26]
Definitely not in 6 months. Nasa could do it in 6 years with an all out effort. SpaceX maybe in 3.
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Posted: 3/29/2024 5:31:13 PM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryQuoted: We probably have the tech to deflect one, just not the technology to detect it soon enough. Shoemaker-Levy 9 was discovered by in 1993 and everyone was looking before it crashed into Jupiter in spectacular fashion in 1994. That was a bit different because it had been gravitationally captured by Jupiter several decades before discovery. |
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Posted: 3/29/2024 5:35:16 PM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Possibly, but the threat of imminent horrifying death of you and everyone you know is a pretty good motivation to get the paperwork done. Heck I wouldn't be shocked to find out that Elon has a Super DART hidden in a vault someplace for just such an occasion. Again, this is real life. Not a movie where politicians and bureaucrats are too dumb to live. |
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Posted: 3/29/2024 5:42:31 PM EDT
[#29]
Like others have said, we do. But we don’t have to; the same nonhumans that have made it clear they won’t let us blow each other up in a nuclear war, won’t let a comet destroy us either. We’re too valuable to them somehow. Cheers!
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Posted: 3/29/2024 5:48:34 PM EDT
[#30]
As a kid I use to play the arcade game Asteroids and it was always the deflected rock that hit another rock and that is rock that killed me.
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Posted: 3/29/2024 5:52:47 PM EDT
[#31]
I hope they load a lot of extra transmissions for the drill rig. Meteors are hard shit. I seent the Documentary.
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Posted: 3/29/2024 5:53:57 PM EDT
[#32]
Not a chance! And good. Everything needs a reset!
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Posted: 3/29/2024 5:56:03 PM EDT
[#33]
People are more worried about plastic straws and political correctness to worry about asteroids destroying Earth.
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Posted: 3/29/2024 8:23:31 PM EDT
[#34]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Hopefully. However, in real life, right now, politicians are destroying the ever loving fuck out of everything including their own futures. Perhaps someday we will see an immune response to this. For now just consider this.  Attached FileThis is the last picture taken of DART. Kinda smol ain't it? There's all that room in the fairing. A Super DART as designed and built by SpaceX could fill the entire fairing. But it probably wouldn't need to. Just so you know this is the box we are thinking inside of for the moment and that box might be getting a lot bigger in the near future. |
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Posted: 3/29/2024 8:26:05 PM EDT
[#35]
Quote HistoryQuoted: People are more worried about plastic straws and political correctness to worry about asteroids destroying Earth. |
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Posted: 3/29/2024 9:56:40 PM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Almost. With 3 or 4 Starship flights we could build one huge gravity tug. The trick is seeing it with enough time left. |
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Posted: 3/29/2024 10:05:56 PM EDT
[#37]
No, I do not have this technology.
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Posted: 3/29/2024 10:09:05 PM EDT
[#38]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Absolutely not. The amount of energy needed to move something that is big enough and moving fast enough to take us out is beyond our grasp. Besides, the bigger issue is seeing it. The meteor that took out the dinosaurs would have been pretty difficult to spot before impact was imminent. Even an asteroid with a width of a football field could take out the city of New York and the greater surrounding area. |
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Posted: 3/29/2024 11:45:05 PM EDT
[#39]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Guess we will find out in 2029.  Will Earth's ?? Gravity Attract Apophis Asteroid ?? and change its Orbit ?? w/ Neil deGrasse Tyson |
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Posted: 3/30/2024 5:16:34 AM EDT
[#40]
The nuke we'd need is a full size Ripple device, but we abandoned development in the early 60s. A 10mt reduced yield version was one of our last atmospheric tests. The prototypes were handbuilt in short amounts of time so maybe it could be done.
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Posted: 3/30/2024 10:39:16 AM EDT
[#41]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I mean a nuke would likely just break it apart unless its something like a nickle/iron asteroid. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: And that's the way they would be used... Asteroids are generally loose because their gravity is a small fraction of what we have in Earth. It's more like a ball of gravel traveling through space, rather than a single, cohesive hard packed rock. Therefore, using a ground Penetrating warhead that burrows deep into the gravel and detonates will blow large amounts of material off into space and have the effect of creating thrust. It doesn't take much to have the desired effect. And a series of nukes would be very effective if used in this way. I mean a nuke would likely just break it apart unless its something like a nickle/iron asteroid. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Orion_ |
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Posted: 3/30/2024 10:11:22 PM EDT
[#42]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Yes, they don't create quite the same kind of impressive explosion like they do in atmosphere, but they still produce plenty of energy to move things and alter the trajectory of an object. Detonation at the correct distance from the surface of the object would cause radiation-induced ablation which would drive the object in the desired direction. |
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Posted: 4/1/2024 11:59:24 AM EDT
[#43]
We apparently do not have the technology to keep pedestrians from strolling across a national border, so I'm guessing deflecting a celestial body would be a stretch.
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Posted: 4/1/2024 12:17:36 PM EDT
[#44]
Quote HistoryQuoted: @Grendel-OK When the DART craft slammed into a gravel pit, Dimorphos did chip off a few boulders and slightly change its orbit. Dimorphos is a moon of asteroid 65803 Didymos. Hitting a more solid asteroid is not going to have the same effect. The meteor that supposedly slammed into earth and caused near-extinction was estimated to be a mile wide and traveling at about Mach 30 with a force equal to a 1 million megaton bomb. I don't think all the nukes in the world can equal that. The one problem I have with the experiment was it moved Dimorphos closer to asteroid 65803 Didymos not further away. Yikes! Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: But do enough of our nuclear warheads actually still work to make that possible? @Grendel-OK When the DART craft slammed into a gravel pit, Dimorphos did chip off a few boulders and slightly change its orbit. Dimorphos is a moon of asteroid 65803 Didymos. Hitting a more solid asteroid is not going to have the same effect. The meteor that supposedly slammed into earth and caused near-extinction was estimated to be a mile wide and traveling at about Mach 30 with a force equal to a 1 million megaton bomb. I don't think all the nukes in the world can equal that. The one problem I have with the experiment was it moved Dimorphos closer to asteroid 65803 Didymos not further away. Yikes! Why would we possibly need to match the impact energy? A tiny adjustment in course is all that's needed. As for moving dimorphos closer versus further away, that's purely a question of where on its orbit we hit it and from what angle. Completely.irrelevant to adjusting the course of an interstellar object. |
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Posted: 4/1/2024 12:27:30 PM EDT
[#45]
Quote HistoryQuoted: As a kid I use to play the arcade game Asteroids and it was always the deflected rock that hit another rock and that is rock that killed me. Asteroids didn't deflect other asteroids in Asteroids. They just passed through each other. |
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Posted: 4/1/2024 12:37:57 PM EDT
[#46]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Absolutely not. The amount of energy needed to move something that is big enough and moving fast enough to take us out is beyond our grasp. Besides, the bigger issue is seeing it. The meteor that took out the dinosaurs would have been pretty difficult to spot before impact was imminent. Even an asteroid with a width of a football field could take out the city of New York and the greater surrounding area. wrong. a .00001% change in trajectory, made far enough out would cause it to miss us completely. |
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Posted: 4/1/2024 1:03:33 PM EDT
[#47]
Quote HistoryQuoted: We apparently do not have the technology to keep pedestrians from strolling across a national border, so I'm guessing deflecting a celestial body would be a stretch. We have plenty of technology. We just have traitors in charge. |
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Posted: 4/1/2024 1:11:52 PM EDT
[#48]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Yes, and by doing so, it would change its trajectory enough that it wouldn't come close to us. Maybe if it was really far out, but mostly what I've read about it just turns a big chunk into a shotgun effect, so most of it still hitting just smaller in size which hopefully burns up before impact. |
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Posted: 4/1/2024 1:12:22 PM EDT
[#49]
If they know one is going to hit that will be strong enough to eliminate most of humanity, I don't think they will tell anybody. The reason is, there's nowhere to run to and the announcement would only precipitate violent anarchy over the whole world.
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Posted: 4/1/2024 1:14:07 PM EDT
[#50]
Quote HistoryQuoted: It takes very little energy when you have enough time and distance. The hard part is identifying the objects far enough out. A few 10 megaton hydrogen bombs surface detonated will heat the impact side and cause enough offgassing to give a little nudge. It's hard to stop something a few days out. If we've got six months after detonation before it's close to earth you only need a micro change in orbit to cause a miss. Exactly, gotta find the rock/iceball far enough out to deflect it, the further out it is the easier it is to deflect it, but its exponentially harder to detect and get something there in time to deflect it. |
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