Lubrication shortages (Page 1 of 3)
Posted: 4/8/2026 11:05:19 PM EDT
[Last Edit: lumper][Edited]
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Most of you have probably seen some of the threads on the other parts of this board about the coming shortage of engine oil and other lubricants. It would be wise to have some stored up for any coming oil changes you may be planning for. This should be done as soon as possible. It is not because of the increased cost of the oil, it is because of the lack of available base stock to work with due to the middle east situation. Even after the situation resolves, the small end user will be the last to have their supply chains replenished, due to the large oil companies having contracts with large industrial users that will come first. for further information Start at the last page and read them backwards for most recent updates. |
It's true no matter who you are, the worst thing you can do for someone is give them something for nothing. - 3rdpig
Do not handicap your children by making their lives easy. - Heinlein
Do not handicap your children by making their lives easy. - Heinlein
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Eh, I've been through this same crap over a half dozen times. Supply will shrink, and demand will increase a small amount. What counts is if the public gets scared and starts hoarding. We have plenty of oil in the US, but if hoarders get their angst up, that will be what causes the problems. Iran is going to unblock the Straits, because if they don't, they will suffer even more than they already have, and they'll make a ton of countries around them that already hate them hate them more. Oil is the only business that the Iranian government has that makes any real profit. Every day that the Strait is blocked is another nail in their coffin and they know it. There are already plans to build a new channel with offloading and onloading stations for oil that will handle as much as the Straits do. Once it's built, everyone will use it and they'll ignore Iran's ports simply due to the fact that there have been so many issues caused by the Mullahs. By bypassing it, it will cost a lot less for insurance on the shipping. If Iran doesn't open the Straits before that project gets full funding, nobody will hear of Iran again. |
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Originally Posted By Redman556: Eh, I've been through this same crap over a half dozen times. Supply will shrink, and demand will increase a small amount. What counts is if the public gets scared and starts hoarding. We have plenty of oil in the US, but if hoarders get their angst up, that will be what causes the problems. Iran is going to unblock the Straits, because if they don't, they will suffer even more than they already have, and they'll make a ton of countries around them that already hate them hate them more. Oil is the only business that the Iranian government has that makes any real profit. Every day that the Strait is blocked is another nail in their coffin and they know it. There are already plans to build a new channel with offloading and onloading stations for oil that will handle as much as the Straits do. Once it's built, everyone will use it and they'll ignore Iran's ports simply due to the fact that there have been so many issues caused by the Mullahs. By bypassing it, it will cost a lot less for insurance on the shipping. If Iran doesn't open the Straits before that project gets full funding, nobody will hear of Iran again. The issue is not oil, per se, but the huge disruption in the availability of Group III base stocks. The majority of this stock is made in the ME. Several of the refineries that make them, especially the Shell Pearl refinery, have been heavily damaged and are now off line or on restricted output. Even if the SOH was reopened yesterday, the damage to the refineries won't be repaired that quickly The Group III stock is necessary to blend modern synthetic oils like the one that's likely in your vehicle right now. There is no cheap, easy way to substitute for those G-III base stocks. There are going to be big shortages. It could be short term but that's looking less and less likely by the day. If you don't think you should be prepared for that, then good on you. But you won't be able to say you weren't warned. |
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All shortages end eventually. They have happened before and they will happen again. Society won’t die because there is a shortage of motor oil. But, it’s a big inconvenience for a time especially for us DIYers. DIYers are a pretty small amount of motor oil sales, from what I understand, so they will be the last to be able to purchase oil during a shortage. Think about Walmart for a minute…..many Walmart stores have oil change shops in them. They make Walmart money. If Walmart can get some oil but not a lot, do you think they will put the oil they can get on the shelf or will they keep the oil for their service centers and allow the shelves to go bare? The thing is….for most of us, we don’t really use all that much oil. I have quite a few engines (3 vehicles, a tractor, and a larger number of small engines and ATVs). I have bought enough oil to last me the next 2-3 years including ATF and gear oil. I spent maybe $300 in the last week buying oil. That’s a pretty small expense for peace of mind for the next few years. And, I don’t have to stress about it. When everyone is complaining how they can’t find motor oil or gear oil, that’s one less problem for me to be concerned with. For the average person (non commercial user) this is an easy and fairly cheap prep. Based on how often you change your oil and on how many miles you typically drive, figure out how many oil changes per vehicle you will need to do over the next couple of years. Then go buy that much. Prep completed. With 100% certainty, we will see price increases and shortages. None of us know how bad it will get. Buying now will insulate you from the short term price spikes and shortages. And, if it lasts longer than 6 months-1 year, you’re still in good shape. And if it doesn’t last longer than, well you just use that oil in your normally scheduled oil changes and not have to buy any. Zero downsides to stocking some extra oil. Also….if you don’t DIY and rely on your dealer or quick lube place…..imagine you go to your normal shop for an oil change and they tell you “sorry we can’t do the oil change for you because we don’t have any oil. Check back next week.” Once the average member of the DIY public realizes this, the shelves will empty overnight. Buy now because you may not be able to buy any within the next month or so….maybe less. I use a lot of Mobil 1 oil and Walmart has it on sale at the moment. |
"It behooves every man to remember that the work of the critic is of altogether secondary importance, and that, in the end, progress is accomplished by the man who does things."
Theodore Roosevelt
Theodore Roosevelt
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I was going to buy new tires for my Jeep later this year but due to the unknowns, I just bought a set. I’m also stocking up on nitrile gloves. I use them when doing messy stuff (like oil changes). I don’t know if these coming shortages will affect tires and nitrile gloves but I’m not taking chances. As far as nitrile gloves are concerned, if you are an inside track member of Harbor Freight….they are on sale for something like 40% off at the moment and later this week, they will be the same sale price for everyone. I remember the toilet paper and nitrile gloves shortages during Covid. I wasn’t affected then because of my stored supplies. I am determined not to let this shortage affect me either. |
"It behooves every man to remember that the work of the critic is of altogether secondary importance, and that, in the end, progress is accomplished by the man who does things."
Theodore Roosevelt
Theodore Roosevelt
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Originally Posted By ColtRifle: With 100% certainty, we will see price increases and shortages. None of us know how bad it will get. Buying now will insulate you from the short term price spikes and shortages. And, if it lasts longer than 6 months-1 year, you're still in good shape. And if it doesn't last longer than, well you just use that oil in your normally scheduled oil changes and not have to buy any. Zero downsides to stocking some extra oil. |
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Yeah....if you are one of those people who changes their own oil on vehicles and equipment...stock up. It's pretty cheap right now...lots of good deals out there. It's never a bad idea to stock up on stuff. I picked up a few extra cases of 5w-30 and 5w-40 diesel oil a few weeks ago....probably going to get some more this weekend. |
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Originally Posted By TheLASwamp: The shortages are likely going to be worse than anything we've seen in a very long time. But the real wildcard is going to be the duration of the shortages. It could be six months. It could be two years. Or even longer. We simply don't know. Most people will probably assume, at least at first, that any shortages won't last long. Once reality sinks in that these shortages may be around for quite some time, everything is going to be bought up, and quickly. I'm telling people I know who are DIYers to get to Wal Mart, Auto Zone, Costco, Sam's Club, or where ever, and pick up enough oil for at least a few changes. Because once the shortages begin, oil is probably going to get much harder to come by. Realistically, we don’t know. And, I’d bet on American ingenuity to solve the shortages…..eventually. It’s the short term I’m concerned about. This isn’t a SHTF situation. But, we currently have easy access to cheap oil. It won’t be so easy or cheap in a few weeks to a month. We just don’t know how long it will last. So, that’s why I’m sitting on about 3 years worth. I basically spent less than the price of a new gun to be insulated from price increases and shortages. Seems like a no brainer to me. I’m also recommending to people they should stock up. Some are listening and some are ignoring my recommendations. I did my part. I can explain it to you but I can’t understand it for you! |
"It behooves every man to remember that the work of the critic is of altogether secondary importance, and that, in the end, progress is accomplished by the man who does things."
Theodore Roosevelt
Theodore Roosevelt
|
Originally Posted By imq707s: Yeah....if you are one of those people who changes their own oil on vehicles and equipment...stock up. It's pretty cheap right now...lots of good deals out there. It's never a bad idea to stock up on stuff. I picked up a few extra cases of 5w-30 and 5w-40 diesel oil a few weeks ago....probably going to get some more this weekend. I’d argue even if you have someone else do it for you, you should still stock up. While I think oil change places and dealers will have better access to oil, it’s always possible THEY might not be able to get any either. If you have it and they don’t, you can bring your own oil in and have them do it for you. If they don’t have oil and you don’t have oil, your oil isn’t getting changed. |
"It behooves every man to remember that the work of the critic is of altogether secondary importance, and that, in the end, progress is accomplished by the man who does things."
Theodore Roosevelt
Theodore Roosevelt
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Originally Posted By ColtRifle: Realistically, we don’t know. And, I’d bet on American ingenuity to solve the shortages…..eventually. It’s the short term I’m concerned about. That American ingenuity is limited by several factors. The first is there simply is not enough of the base material to go around, let alone the additive packages that are manufactured from the same base material. Production, refining & transport are all tied together and will take months to work through, not even including the middle east damage to refineries which will be measured in years and billions of dollars. A second is vehicle warranties require specific standards for lubricants. If the incorrect lubricant is used due to scarcity, or the lubricant is not changed according to schedule, do you believe the manufacturers would overlook that? I don't. Another issue. How many manufacturers use lubricants when manufacturing? All of them. No lubricants means no production which means no work for employees. Not just heavy equipment manufacturers like John Deere or Cat who have to machine parts and fill equipment to test it. Every manufacture of real stuff that you can touch uses oil. There are so many things that can follow this issue. I can stock up on some oil for a few oil changes, but that is really minor in the whole situation. For what it worth, my sons run a tractor trailer shop. Rebuilding engines & general maintenance. They were put on allocation late yesterday by their lubricant supplier. They were fortunate that they had stocked up due to learning of the situation from the thread linked above. However, if they run out of lubricants, they can not rebuild an engine and break it in on the dyno. They can not perform routine maintenance such as fluid exchanges & lubrication. Only a small shop, only a few employees, but without work, the mortgage doesn't get paid. |
It's true no matter who you are, the worst thing you can do for someone is give them something for nothing. - 3rdpig
Do not handicap your children by making their lives easy. - Heinlein
Do not handicap your children by making their lives easy. - Heinlein
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Originally Posted By ColtRifle: I’d argue even if you have someone else do it for you, you should still stock up. While I think oil change places and dealers will have better access to oil, it’s always possible THEY might not be able to get any either. If you have it and they don’t, you can bring your own oil in and have them do it for you. If they don’t have oil and you don’t have oil, your oil isn’t getting changed. As I mentioned, allocation of lubricants has already started on the wholesale level to dealers, and as an end user (a small reseller) I expect to get cut off so the primary customers can stay in business. For example, I run a little rural general store. I sell oil and filters for auto and farm equipment. I expect my allocation of oils to go to close to zero from my distributor because I do not need to sell oil. My sons on the other hand, with their business, need oil to stay in business. I would expect their allocation to be higher than mine, and any oil I receive may well go to them instead of my shelves anyways. |
It's true no matter who you are, the worst thing you can do for someone is give them something for nothing. - 3rdpig
Do not handicap your children by making their lives easy. - Heinlein
Do not handicap your children by making their lives easy. - Heinlein
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Originally Posted By lumper: As I mentioned, allocation of lubricants has already started on the wholesale level to dealers, and as an end user (a small reseller) I expect to get cut off so the primary customers can stay in business. For example, I run a little rural general store. I sell oil and filters for auto and farm equipment. I expect my allocation of oils to go to close to zero from my distributor because I do not need to sell oil. My sons on the other hand, with their business, need oil to stay in business. I would expect their allocation to be higher than mine, and any oil I receive may well go to them instead of my shelves anyways. That’s my point. I firmly believe this will be resolved eventually so I do not consider this to be a SHTF event for most people. It might be if your business depends on oil and especially if you or your business is also carrying a lot of debt. But, it will be a major inconvenience for everyone eventually. And, AT THE MOMENT, it’s easy and relatively cheap to prepare for. In a few weeks to a month, it will be too late and we will have to get in line with everyone else…if we need oil. The ME is not the ONLY source of lubricating oils so lubricating oils will still keep getting produced. It’s just that we lost a huge and important chunk of lubricating oil production. That means price increases and shortages….doesn't matter if we are talking about oil or toilet paper….same end result. Once the shelves get bare, whenever a store gets some in stock, just like we saw with toilet paper during Covid, people will panic and buy everything they can get their hands on. Businesses will likely put per customer restrictions on how much you can buy….if they have any to sell you. It’ll get better eventually…..absolutely certain of that. But the short term is gonna be painful. I just don’t know how painful. My brother owns his own mechanic shop and does a lot of field service work. He had no idea this was going on so I told him he better stock up ASAP. He said he uses between 300-600 gallons per year. He did tell me he was going to stock up immediately. |
"It behooves every man to remember that the work of the critic is of altogether secondary importance, and that, in the end, progress is accomplished by the man who does things."
Theodore Roosevelt
Theodore Roosevelt
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I guess if folks choose to ignore the warnings it's on them. SF of all places? Yes, we have plenty of crude for the USA. Group 3 and related is the problem. Only have to google "group 3 base oil shortage" to see the generalized and public information on this. Like others posted, a few extra oil changes on hand is not a hard or complicated problem to work out. The upsides far outweigh the down. You are going to buy that oil eventually if you are a diy kinda guy. I for one put back enough for about 3~4 years worth of oil changes. Always kept 1~2 years, anyway, always bought sales and saved. Did the same this time. I doubt engine oil will be much cheaper 3 years from now, and every few dollars I can save here or there on necessities is another dollar towards something else. For me it's as much a hedge against inflation and might help me during an oil shortage. win-win. |
Originally Posted By ar-jedi:
SO MUCH WIN IN ONE POST IT COULD CRASH ARFCOM !!!
SO MUCH WIN IN ONE POST IT COULD CRASH ARFCOM !!!
| SInce we're on the subject, how long will oil last in one of those plastic jugs? I've got several of the 5 qt jugs in my garage of Mobil 1 that I've had for about five years. Does the stuff go bad? |
"Fat, drunk and stupid is no way to go through life, son." - Dean Wormer
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Originally Posted By Tipsovr: SInce we're on the subject, how long will oil last in one of those plastic jugs? I've got several of the 5 qt jugs in my garage of Mobil 1 that I've had for about five years. Does the stuff go bad? I’m not professional enough to know…..but I wouldn’t hesitate to use it if the oil was 5-10 years old. Beyond 10 years old, I’d probably still use it but would prefer newer if possible. 15 year old oil is better than no oil. I have some stored oil that is 5 yrs old. Unopened. I’ll use up most of it this year and will use the rest of it next year. |
"It behooves every man to remember that the work of the critic is of altogether secondary importance, and that, in the end, progress is accomplished by the man who does things."
Theodore Roosevelt
Theodore Roosevelt
|
Originally Posted By Tipsovr: SInce we're on the subject, how long will oil last in one of those plastic jugs? I've got several of the 5 qt jugs in my garage of Mobil 1 that I've had for about five years. Does the stuff go bad? Also no expert but the general best by date for bottles of oil is 5 years... But 5 years from what? Manufacture date, bottle date, purchase date?  I try to use it inside of the 5 year range but I am sure I have and have used older. Mostly new sealed unopened bottles. If it gets too old, it always makes good bar oil. I wrote 2026 on all this year's bottles so I have an easy way to tell moving forward. Old small engine (air cooled 4 stroke) use it. Modern vehicle that is expensive to fix or replace, proceed with caution. |
Originally Posted By ar-jedi:
SO MUCH WIN IN ONE POST IT COULD CRASH ARFCOM !!!
SO MUCH WIN IN ONE POST IT COULD CRASH ARFCOM !!!
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Originally Posted By thederrick106: Also no expert but the general best by date for bottles of oil is 5 years... But 5 years from what? Manufacture date, bottle date, purchase date? I try to use it inside of the 5 year range but I am sure I have and have used older. Mostly new sealed unopened bottles. If it gets too old, it always makes good bar oil. I wrote 2026 on all this year's bottles so I have an easy way to tell moving forward. Old small engine (air cooled 4 stroke) use it. Modern vehicle that is expensive to fix or replace, proceed with caution. When I buy oil, I write the year on it with a sharpie marker. Helps me try to use up older supply first. |
"It behooves every man to remember that the work of the critic is of altogether secondary importance, and that, in the end, progress is accomplished by the man who does things."
Theodore Roosevelt
Theodore Roosevelt
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Originally Posted By ColtRifle: When I buy oil, I write the year on it with a sharpie marker. Helps me try to use up older supply first. Someone should have suggested I do that a few years ago. Attached File I think I will try to find codes on what I have to put clear dates on everything. |
Originally Posted By ar-jedi:
SO MUCH WIN IN ONE POST IT COULD CRASH ARFCOM !!!
SO MUCH WIN IN ONE POST IT COULD CRASH ARFCOM !!!
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Originally Posted By ColtRifle: That's my point. I firmly believe this will be resolved eventually so I do not consider this to be a SHTF event for most people. It might be if your business depends on oil and especially if you or your business is also carrying a lot of debt. But, it will be a major inconvenience for everyone eventually. And, AT THE MOMENT, it's easy and relatively cheap to prepare for. In a few weeks to a month, it will be too late and we will have to get in line with everyone else if we need oil. The ME is not the ONLY source of lubricating oils so lubricating oils will still keep getting produced. It's just that we lost a huge and important chunk of lubricating oil production. That means price increases and shortages .doesn't matter if we are talking about oil or toilet paper .same end result. Once the shelves get bare, whenever a store gets some in stock, just like we saw with toilet paper during Covid, people will panic and buy everything they can get their hands on. Businesses will likely put per customer restrictions on how much you can buy .if they have any to sell you. It'll get better eventually ..absolutely certain of that. But the short term is gonna be painful. I just don't know how painful. My brother owns his own mechanic shop and does a lot of field service work. He had no idea this was going on so I told him he better stock up ASAP. He said he uses between 300-600 gallons per year. He did tell me he was going to stock up immediately. I don't know if this is going to be a short-term problem, but I would not count on it. I think we're looking at, minimum, a year of severe shortages. We may be lucky if it's only one year. This could drag on for a lot longer. The only real defense we have against it is to prepare for it, right now, while the window to do so is still open. I have a feeling it won't be for much longer. Once word get out of massive shortages coming, and that news will get out, there will be a run that will heavily deplete remaining inventory. More and more people are getting wind of what's coming and they will be taking steps to stock up, too. I think the panic has already begun. It's just not to a huge scale, yet. |
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As far as the longevity aspect- had an older friend that was moving out west. Gave a mutual friend a case of 15W40 and said "I know Rob has a diesel generator give this to him, I got it to barter with back in 98." Mutual friend brought it up, put it in storage and mentioned it. I forgot all about it. This was maybe 2001'ish. "Found" that case, wondered where the hell it came from and figured this must be that case. This was maybe 2017'ish. Opened one, poured some out to look at it, nasty looking gooo, did not look at all like fresh oil. Curious, opened the other 10 or 11 in the box, all looked like that. So that was almost 20 years old and what it looked like what something had separated (???) and it was milky looking. It burned well, but I wasn't even going to try it as bar oil. |
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Originally Posted By Tipsovr: SInce we're on the subject, how long will oil last in one of those plastic jugs? I've got several of the 5 qt jugs in my garage of Mobil 1 that I've had for about five years. Does the stuff go bad? Well that is a good question and it depends on the application. The engine oil specs change periodically. The current spec is ILSAC GF-6A. If that is what you engine requires do not use an older spec oil. Say you have a 2018 model year car which would require ILSAC GF-5A. I would be safe to use either 5A or 6A. |
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Originally Posted By TheLASwamp: Most people these days take their vehicles to quick lube places or the dealership for their oil changes. It's going to be a huge problem if these places cannot get motor oil. I'm not sure what they would tell their customers. I have a friend who just bought a new Buick and he has a number of free dealership oil changes that he is planning to use. If the dealership service department cannot get Dexos-certified oil to use, what will they do? It's a crazy situation that few will be truly prepared for. I believe that even if the war ended this morning and the Strait were fully opened, the shortages are coming. With the physical damages to the refineries, especially the Shell Pearl facility, production of Group III base oils is going to be severely hampered for quite some time. And the truth is that neither the war ending nor the Strait reopening is likely to happen soon. And there's still the significant damage to the refineries that's going to have to be repaired. I've seen no timeline on how soon that can happen, but I'm guessing it won't be a quick resolution. And who knows what Iran will target next. They seem to still have major missile and drone attack capability. They can still do a lot of damage to what remains of Group III production. I don't know if this is going to be a short-term problem, but I would not count on it. I think we're looking at, minimum, a year of severe shortages. We may be lucky if it's only one year. This could drag on for a lot longer. The only real defense we have against it is to prepare for it, right now, while the window to do so is still open. I have a feeling it won't be for much longer. Once word get out of massive shortages coming, and that news will get out, there will be a run that will heavily deplete remaining inventory. More and more people are getting wind of what's coming and they will be taking steps to stock up, too. I think the panic has already begun. It's just not to a huge scale, yet. I’d say most of the people “panicking” are here on this forum!!  (that’s a joke for those with no sense of humor) Most everyone else in the world is blissfully unaware….at the moment. Once the shelves start getting bare, that’s when some of the general public will start panicking….those who buy their own oil. Then, those who take their cars go service, when their chosen service place tells them, “sorry we can’t service your car today because we don’t have any oil. Check back next week.” They will head to Walmart or parts stores and then discover there is none to buy….thats when the real panic will set in. Might be a good chance to make some extra side money….. I’ll keep my mouth shut though. Publicly, I’ll be bitching like everyone else. Meanwhile, my shelves will be well stocked for my own personal use. Ordered another case of Mobil1 and a 2.5 gallon jug of Rotella. That puts me at about 3 years worth. I’ll pick up some more ATF LV for the F150. Already ordered ATF +4 for the Jeep and it’ll be here today. I don’t know if ATF will be affected by this or not but I’m not taking chances. I need to grab a few tubes of moly grease. Have plenty of the other types of grease I use. |
"It behooves every man to remember that the work of the critic is of altogether secondary importance, and that, in the end, progress is accomplished by the man who does things."
Theodore Roosevelt
Theodore Roosevelt
| I also think it's going to run about a year or so shortage at this point. I have the urge to order some more but I really don't need anymore. 3+ year supply should be plenty. Everything I have except vehicles are slated for an oil change in the next month or two. Vehicles end of summer. |
Originally Posted By ar-jedi:
SO MUCH WIN IN ONE POST IT COULD CRASH ARFCOM !!!
SO MUCH WIN IN ONE POST IT COULD CRASH ARFCOM !!!
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When the Ukraine invasion started, they were widely sharing directions for molotov cocktails which included used motor oil as an ingredient. Never thought about saving that before so next oil change i put the old oil back into a 5qt mobile 1 plastic jug, labeled it, put it in a corner of garage and left it there pretty much forgotten . Forgotten until a few weeks ago when I walked into the garage to find a large pool of used oil all over the floor. The 5qt jug had degraded to the point it was compromised and leaking. Fresh oil kept long term may be good to use but dont count on the plastic containers its in lasting long time. 4 yrs seemed to be all mine was good for. Sample size of 1 and all. |
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Originally Posted By ROMAD-556: When the Ukraine invasion started, they were widely sharing directions for molotov cocktails which included used motor oil as an ingredient. Never thought about saving that before so next oil change i put the old oil back into a 5qt mobile 1 plastic jug, labeled it, put it in a corner of garage and left it there pretty much forgotten . Forgotten until a few weeks ago when I walked into the garage to find a large pool of used oil all over the floor. The 5qt jug had degraded to the point it was compromised and leaking. Fresh oil kept long term may be good to use but dont count on the plastic containers its in lasting long time. 4 yrs seemed to be all mine was good for. Sample size of 1 and all. I have several 2.5 gallon jugs I pour used motor oil into and I eventually use it to light brush fires. So far…..they are holding up fine. Been using them for the past 5 years or so. But, definitely something to keep an eye on for sure. |
"It behooves every man to remember that the work of the critic is of altogether secondary importance, and that, in the end, progress is accomplished by the man who does things."
Theodore Roosevelt
Theodore Roosevelt
|
For what its worth…..I buy most of my oil from Walmart. Best price around for me. I was in a Walmart today decided to walk down the motor oil aisle. Shelves were all fully stocked and Mobil 1 was actually marked down. Never been a better time to stock up…… |
"It behooves every man to remember that the work of the critic is of altogether secondary importance, and that, in the end, progress is accomplished by the man who does things."
Theodore Roosevelt
Theodore Roosevelt
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Originally Posted By farmer-dave: I've fully stocked for a year, now I wonder if I should push it to a 2 year supply. I went for 3+. Though I already had 1~2 years on hand. Buy the dip as they say. |
Originally Posted By ar-jedi:
SO MUCH WIN IN ONE POST IT COULD CRASH ARFCOM !!!
SO MUCH WIN IN ONE POST IT COULD CRASH ARFCOM !!!
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Originally Posted By GlutealCleft: Those jugs aren't made to last forever. Originally Posted By GlutealCleft: Originally Posted By ROMAD-556: Forgotten until a few weeks ago when I walked into the garage to find a large pool of used oil all over the floor. The 5qt jug had degraded to the point it was compromised and leaking. Those jugs aren't made to last forever. I have an old 2.5-gallon tractor hydraulic fluid jug from Walmart I have been using for waste oil for just over a decade. Stored outside next to my shed too.  Living in a heavy road salt AO, I spray the undersides of my trucks every fall so I have a use for the waste oil. |
Originally Posted By ar-jedi:
SO MUCH WIN IN ONE POST IT COULD CRASH ARFCOM !!!
SO MUCH WIN IN ONE POST IT COULD CRASH ARFCOM !!!
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Originally Posted By ColtRifle: For what its worth ..I buy most of my oil from Walmart. Best price around for me. I was in a Walmart today decided to walk down the motor oil aisle. Shelves were all fully stocked and Mobil 1 was actually marked down. Never been a better time to stock up |
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Originally Posted By TheLASwamp: There are a select few who know what's coming, thanks to folks like Foxtrot08 giving a heads-up on what he's hearing from inside the industry. There are plenty of people who have no idea. The MSM isn't reporting it and unless you follow guys like Lake Speed, i.e., the Motor Oil Geek, you'd have no clue. I have a feeling when the panic hits, it's going to hit pretty hard. The idea that there will be bare shelves for several months or longer will force a lot of people to get to Wal Mart or Auto Zone to get oil for at least a couple of changes. Clearly, that hasn't happened yet. I suspect it won't be much longer, though. I agree. |
"It behooves every man to remember that the work of the critic is of altogether secondary importance, and that, in the end, progress is accomplished by the man who does things."
Theodore Roosevelt
Theodore Roosevelt
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Originally Posted By ColtRifle: I agree. |
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I am only stocked up on what I use and my preferred brands. No point in putting back something I don't have a plan to use. Napa house brand (Valvoline as I understand it.) = vehicle oil changes. Valvoline. = mostly gear oil for upcoming services, some ATF for service as well. Supertech. = small engine/ extra stuff. Rotella. = T4 15w40 mostly for use for any of my stuff with a wet clutch but also has other uses. Recent addition due to the low price ($14.98) is "Mobil Delvac 1300 Super Heavy Duty Premium Synthetic Blend Diesel Engine Oil 10W-30, 1 Gallon" Added that for my mini-Kubota excavator. Used Napa or Valvoline prior but ordered several gallons of that for the next few years. I can use Rotella if needed but do run it in cold temps on occasion so I try for 10w on the bottom considering I only change the oil once per year due to frequent use but low hours overall. I did just learn that Supertech has a bar oil, so I ordered 5 gallons of that. I only use about a gallon or two per year, its sticky, and it's cheaper than the other oils so it works for me. Used Tractor Supply brand for years prior. I only put back my preferred brands, and what I actually need to use weight wise. If you are buying something that you don't need or have a use for then IMHO its beyond "neck bearding." If you are buying something for someone else as a prep, then buy what you know they will need. |
Originally Posted By ar-jedi:
SO MUCH WIN IN ONE POST IT COULD CRASH ARFCOM !!!
SO MUCH WIN IN ONE POST IT COULD CRASH ARFCOM !!!
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I will also add by saying this to those who frequent SF and have similar mindsets. I feel that this is one of those times where we actually have a heads up/ preemptive notice to a possible world disrupting shortage. For most SHTF this is probably not the case so take advantage of it while you can and be ready for a couple years of price hikes and shortages. Worst case scenario you have oil changes from today's price for tomorrow. There is no downside to stacking back a few extra gallons of whatever your stuff uses. For those that don't frequent GD here are the threads: https://www.ar15.com/forums/general/Foxtrot08-makes-an-oil-thread-/5-2724893/&page=51&anc=116515042#i116515042 https://www.ar15.com/forums/general/Global-Oil-Price-Shock-to-Hit-Starting-April-10th/5-2839809/&page=8&anc=116515273#i116515273 Several other countries are at or weeks away from severe system destroying shortages. USA, we just have to deal with a group 3 base oil shortage and other downstream effects at this point because we have and can make plenty of gas and fuel. Who knows what prices are going to look like in days/ weeks/ months. |
Originally Posted By ar-jedi:
SO MUCH WIN IN ONE POST IT COULD CRASH ARFCOM !!!
SO MUCH WIN IN ONE POST IT COULD CRASH ARFCOM !!!
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Originally Posted By TheLASwamp: What oil are you stocking up on? I've been focusing on Pennzoil, but I have also been buying Valvoline, Super Tech, and Kirkland as well. I have a few jugs of Mobil 1. With the Shell Pearl refinery down for what may be quite a while, it seems a good idea to get a supply of the Pennzoil while it's still available. Based on what Fox has told us, it doesn't sound like it's going to be on the shelves for much longer. Never been a Pennzoil fan. I’m sure it’s fine…just not my preferred oil. I’d use it if it’s all I had to use but since I don’t, I use other brands. I mainly use Mobil1 Extended Performance 0W20 and 5W30. It’s my preferred for my vehicles. When I had my Jeep TJ with the 4.0 I used Supertech High Mileage because I changed the oil pretty frequently (about every 4k ish miles) and the high mileage helped with the rear main seepage that the 4.0 engines are notorious for (didn’t solve the seepage but it did reduce it). For my tractor, side by side, and ATVs I use Rotella T6. One oil simplifies things for me because it’s rated for wet clutches (one of my ATVs has a wet clutch) and the tractor is a diesel. Also have a diesel generator and, of course, it also gets T6. I am a big fan of simplification of supply whenever possible. For gear oil I usually use Valvoline as it’s fairly cheap and easily available. When I had my TJ, I used Redline MTL in the manual transmission since it needed a GL4 oil. Since that vehicle is gone, I’m back to all GL5 gear oils. I will also use Supertech synthetic gear oils if Valvoline is out of stock. I don’t remember the brand but I recently purchased 5 gallons of tractor transmission/hydraulic fluid. It’s about time for a fluid change. I think it takes 5 gallons or just a little more for a complete change. It’s been a few years since I changed the transmission oil so it’s due. I’ll do that in the next few weeks. I have some leftover from the past so it’ll get the rest of that and however much of the new oil is needed to top it off. I don’t use the tractor all that much (less than 50 hrs per year) and it’s stored under cover so the engine oil gets changed yearly and the transmission/hydraulic oil gets changed every 5 years or so. |
"It behooves every man to remember that the work of the critic is of altogether secondary importance, and that, in the end, progress is accomplished by the man who does things."
Theodore Roosevelt
Theodore Roosevelt
 Motor Oil Prices Are INCREASING & Supply Is DECREASING |
Originally Posted By ar-jedi:
SO MUCH WIN IN ONE POST IT COULD CRASH ARFCOM !!!
SO MUCH WIN IN ONE POST IT COULD CRASH ARFCOM !!!
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Originally Posted By XM21Nick: I opened up a sealed quart of Mobil 1 that was seven years old. It was all lumpy . I always worry about that since I store mine in a small outdoor shed/ workshop. I have been trying to keep about a year or two ahead as a general prep so I can buy on sale and use it when I need it. It's easy for me because most of my stuff only gets annual oil changes so it's not like I need a ton. At this point I am stopping myself from grabbing a few more gallons of anything as I am right around the 3+ year mark, and I don't want any of it to go bad and be wasted. |
Originally Posted By ar-jedi:
SO MUCH WIN IN ONE POST IT COULD CRASH ARFCOM !!!
SO MUCH WIN IN ONE POST IT COULD CRASH ARFCOM !!!
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Originally Posted By XM21Nick: Not sure what you mean . The oil was for my generator and was stored on a garage shelf . |
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Originally Posted By ColtRifle: For what its worth…..I buy most of my oil from Walmart. Best price around for me. I was in a Walmart today decided to walk down the motor oil aisle. Shelves were all fully stocked and Mobil 1 was actually marked down. Never been a better time to stock up…… I think the concerns are very valid but the supply chain on some commodoties can be lengthy and not get immediately as impacted as others. Prudent prepration is just that. I'm going to get a few extra cases this week and I'm going to order more filters. I have the storage capacity and they will get used as future cases are rotated. If the S doesn't HTF, there's no wasted money, just future expensive paid up front. If TS does HT, you have a very comfortable cushion to avoid excessive prices, long lines, or fucked up vehicles due to lack of maintenance. I don't see this as a "Sky is Falling!" post, just a great reminder that global disruptions in the various supply chains "may" impact local markets. ROCK6 |
"The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants" - Thomas Jefferson
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Originally Posted By ROCK6: I think the concerns are very valid but the supply chain on some commodoties can be lengthy and not get immediately as impacted as others. Prudent prepration is just that. I'm going to get a few extra cases this week and I'm going to order more filters. I have the storage capacity and they will get used as future cases are rotated. If the S doesn't HTF, there's no wasted money, just future expensive paid up front. If TS does HT, you have a very comfortable cushion to avoid excessive prices, long lines, or fucked up vehicles due to lack of maintenance. I don't see this as a "Sky is Falling!" post, just a great reminder that global disruptions in the various supply chains "may" impact local markets. ROCK6 I am a big believer in American ingenuity and resourcefulness. I am confident this whole thing will be resolved eventually. I’m not at all worried about it…..long term. Short term, it’s super easy to prepare for this one. Depending on how many vehicles and pieces of equipment you have to stock up for and how long you want to be ready for, determines how much money you’ll spend. I have quite a few engines to care for and I’ve probably spent $300 preparing for it….maybe a little more once I factor in transmission fluids. And I have more engines to maintain than most people do. Quite small expense in the grand scheme of things. Honestly, I’m not doing it to save money. I’m doing it to avoid the hassle of trying to find oil when it’s in short supply. The saving money is a tiny side benefit. For me, the magic number is 2-3 years. That’s probably excessive. But, I’m comfortable there. |
"It behooves every man to remember that the work of the critic is of altogether secondary importance, and that, in the end, progress is accomplished by the man who does things."
Theodore Roosevelt
Theodore Roosevelt
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Originally Posted By thederrick106: I always worry about that since I store mine in a small outdoor shed/ workshop. I have been trying to keep about a year or two ahead as a general prep so I can buy on sale and use it when I need it. It's easy for me because most of my stuff only gets annual oil changes so it's not like I need a ton. At this point I am stopping myself from grabbing a few more gallons of anything as I am right around the 3+ year mark, and I don't want any of it to go bad and be wasted. Mine is stored in my heated (and now air conditioned) shop. Not sure if that makes a difference or not. I’m currently using 5 yr old Rotella T6. It looks and smells just like when it was new. I have a couple quarts of T6 in quart bottles that is also 5 years old. Maybe I’ll keep it and open one at the 10 yr old mark and one at the 15 yr old mark. |
"It behooves every man to remember that the work of the critic is of altogether secondary importance, and that, in the end, progress is accomplished by the man who does things."
Theodore Roosevelt
Theodore Roosevelt
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Originally Posted By zeekh: I know things aren't good in Iran but how is synthetic motor oil affected by this. Its made from natural gas It's not a shortage of crude or natural gas that's the problem, its production capacity of group 3 base oils. Google: "Group 3 base oil shortage" Or read some of the other threads posted. |
Originally Posted By ar-jedi:
SO MUCH WIN IN ONE POST IT COULD CRASH ARFCOM !!!
SO MUCH WIN IN ONE POST IT COULD CRASH ARFCOM !!!
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Things seem to be moving in a positive direction in the ME. But, even if things go back to normal, the real normal won’t happen until production is back online AND it has been shipped into the US. I have no idea the timeline when that might be but I’m guessing 6mo to 1 year before things are back to normal. That means the oil in the supply system is it until things return to normal. 6 mo is no big deal. 1 year is a little painful. Any more than that and it’s gonna get really painful. Looks like my 2-3 year supply will be a good thing to have. Probably excessive but I’m ok with that. But, I’m some random, anonymous guy from the internet so believe what you wish. |
"It behooves every man to remember that the work of the critic is of altogether secondary importance, and that, in the end, progress is accomplished by the man who does things."
Theodore Roosevelt
Theodore Roosevelt
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Originally Posted By zeekh: I know things aren't good in Iran but how is synthetic motor oil affected by this. Its made from natural gas Shell's Pearl facility is located in Qatar. From what I understand a large majority of group 3 oil base stocks for synthetic oils are produced here. It is located in Ras Laffan Industrial City which is in the Persian Gulf behind the Strait or Hormuz. It's feedstock is Qatari Natural Gas. As a sidenote I saw a tweet the other day that the Qatari's literally give Shell the nat gas for free in exchange for having the plant there.  Shell has shutdown the facility due to Iranian attacks in the city. |
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Originally Posted By ColtRifle: Things seem to be moving in a positive direction in the ME. But, even if things go back to normal, the real normal won’t happen until production is back online AND it has been shipped into the US. I have no idea the timeline when that might be but I’m guessing 6mo to 1 year before things are back to normal. That means the oil in the supply system is it until things return to normal. 6 mo is no big deal. 1 year is a little painful. Any more than that and it’s gonna get really painful. Looks like my 2-3 year supply will be a good thing to have. Probably excessive but I’m ok with that. But, I’m some random, anonymous guy from the internet so believe what you wish. 1 year could have some pretty huge consequences. All the commercial traffic (semis etc.) need oil changes. It’s not just consumer vehicles. |
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Originally Posted By bluemax_1: 1 year could have some pretty huge consequences. All the commercial traffic (semis etc.) need oil changes. It’s not just consumer vehicles. True but…..there is still oil in the supply system. Commercial accounts will most likely get supplied first. Most semi operators could extend oil changes a bit to squeak by. I’m sure they will get supplied well before the DIY of Walmart and parts stores shelves. Might not be as much as they need but they will get it before you and I will. |
"It behooves every man to remember that the work of the critic is of altogether secondary importance, and that, in the end, progress is accomplished by the man who does things."
Theodore Roosevelt
Theodore Roosevelt