I'm planning to buy a Vepr soon, either in .308 or 7.62x54R (How cool is that!?). Since the rounds are ballistically similar, my only real reason to go with the 54R over .308 is cost, and that's a big deal! But I keep hearing people saying that the supply of cheap surplus 7.62x54R ammo is drying up. Is this actually true? Will there come a time when 7.62x54R rises to the price of .308?

...Of course, by that time, .308 will probably be $2 a round or something. In which case maybe I'll drool over the chance to shoot a .30 caliber round for "only" $0.50.

If you had to choose one over the other in this situation, which would you go with? .308 or 7.62x54R?

New production Russian steel case 308 and new production 7.62x54r steel case are already the same price. The disadvantage of x54 is there is no domestic production. There are other factors too. X54 Vepr only has a 5 round mag and the 10 rounders are long because they are single stack. 308 has a much flatter trajectory than x54. So 308 offers a bit of an advantage in mags and accuracy.

There are now 20-round 7.62x54R Vepr magazines: http://www.atlanticfirearms.com/component/virtuemart/shipping-accessories/vepr-7-62x54r-20-round-magazine-detail.html?Itemid=0

They're very new, so I don't know if they're any good. I realize that rimmed cartridged have a harder time in box magazines as a matter of general principle, so if it turns out that magazine issues are insurmountable, I'll go with the .308. It's just so painful to pay $0.50 or more per bullet. Right now I can easily buy a few thousand rounds for under $0.22 per round delivered. The question is, I guess, for how much longer?

Right there is your answer, buy it cheap and stack it deep and you won't have to worry about what it costs in the future!

It's always been my philosophy!

Are supplies drying up? Yes. There is a finite amount of genuine surplus. The stuff we are enjoying right now was made between the 50's and the 80's.
We have been chewing our way through that supply since the 90's- and at a faster rate I'd reckon since the mid 2000's with huge spikes in 08,12, and right now.
Who knows how much is left. I laugh to think that there is probably more surplus 54 sitting here in US homes than in former com-bloc nations.

It's still out there for purchase. If I were you I'd do some calculations and decide how much you might need over the course of a few decades and lay it in now. It's not going to fall in price and I don't suspect there are any more hidey holes where untapped sources are waiting to flood the market.

What I will say is all of this cheap surplus is corrosive. I don't mind cleaning it out of a Mosin but I don't know I'd go through the trouble of all that cleaning of a semi auto. I'd probably just use modern production which is running about a half dollar /rd. just wants you to be aware of that.

I think in the worst of times 9mm, .45, 5.56/.223 and .308 are going to be the essential capabilities to have for accessible ammo.

Except for the 5.56/.223 I'm covered; ownership is imminent.

Otherwise, I'm compulsively focused on 7.62x39 and 5.45x39 at this current point in time.

What bullet weights are you referring to?  I didn't know that was true since the x54r has about 13% more case capacity

 

I went with the 54r and bought a few cases.  I still mostly shoot the commerical, but the cases of 54r are going to increase in value here soon.  The 54r was also the only ammo that I was able to get and did not increase in price last year.

I was wondering about this as well. Please elaborate on this. Factory loads vs hand loads? BCE?  Same gun, barrel length/weight twist etc?  Should be pretty darn close.

Me, personally, I would go with the .308. My reason is that I have no crystal ball to see what domestic commercial loads will be available in the future in 54r. But if history repeats itself with the 54r like the 8mm, .303 etc loads will not be as good as .308. Also, the 54r is a rimmed cartridge and is not as magazine friendly as a rimless cartridge.   Just my $0.02.

54R is still being produced and used in huge quantities. The question is importation in the future. Buy a few cases.

The good thing about 54r is there are many countries still using it. Prior to all the 70's & 80's Russian ammo coming in I was buying CZ,Hungarian, polish, Bulgarian and Chinese surplus to name a few (for like $89 per case), it is out there and if we stop getting it from Russia and the Ukraine it will come from elsewhere. The owner of wolf ammo (I know it's not surplus) just said the other day that the American public shouldn't be freaking out because there are so many other sources of cheap ammo in other countries and that he already has a contingency plan for if the Russians stop supplying him.