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Posted: 3/16/2017 5:46:22 PM EDT
[#1]
Fingers crossed, but not holding my breath.
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Posted: 3/16/2017 7:11:24 PM EDT
[#2]
I don't think the HPA is a done deal. The chances of it dying in committee are high given the large number of more pressing legislative goals for the current administration. Silencers are still a niche segment of the firearms industry as a whole and I just don't think there is enough relevance to make it a center-point issue this year.
My opinion is that it will not get passed this year and maybe not even this session. I hope that I am wrong. |
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Posted: 3/16/2017 7:15:02 PM EDT
[#3]
I'm calling at least a year, if it passes at all.
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Posted: 3/16/2017 7:35:17 PM EDT
[#4]
The problem with reconciliation, as I understand it, is that the HPA would have to be at least revenue neutral after 10 years because of the Byrd Rule. And then we get back to the leftist CBO and it's ridiculously inaccurate scoring.
JPK |
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Posted: 3/16/2017 9:30:01 PM EDT
[#5]
Biggest problem I see is that the Congress hasn't done jack in 3 months and summer vacation is right around the corner. They had 8 years to get ready and didn't bother.
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Posted: 3/16/2017 9:44:58 PM EDT
[#6]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Biggest problem I see is that the Congress hasn't done jack in 3 months and summer vacation is right around the corner. They had 8 years to get ready and didn't bother. On the other hand, they were totally f'in surprised by Trump's victory. They need to stop listening to the leftist press, Republican Establishment, which actually leans left, and get out of the cities and the Beltway for a drive around the rest of the country. JPK |
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Posted: 3/16/2017 9:47:30 PM EDT
[#7]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
The problem with reconciliation, as I understand it, is that the HPA would have to be at least revenue neutral after 10 years because of the Byrd Rule. And then we get back to the leftist CBO and it's ridiculously inaccurate scoring. JPK Thanks |
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Posted: 3/16/2017 9:52:34 PM EDT
[#8]
If you google "Byrd Rule" you will find a nice, concise explanation. I would post a link but don't know how to do it on the iPad I am typing on.
Here's my short try: Anything brought to a vote under reconciliation is subject to being blocked by one Senator's objection if it is either extraneous or if it isn't at least revenue neutral after ten years. There are caveats... But, as an example, if you recall the W Bush tax cuts, they sunset at 10yrs to avoid the Byrd Rule. JPK |
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Posted: 3/16/2017 10:01:27 PM EDT
[#9]
Quoted:
The reality is these Dems decision on the HPA will be heavily influenced by WHEN they are up for re-election I suspect. Assuming the 52 Republican Senators vote "Yea", 8 of the 9 Dems would have to vote "Yea" to get to 60. But with a Tax Bill there is no filibuster. So all they need is |
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Posted: 3/16/2017 10:03:47 PM EDT
[#10]
Aaaaand welcome to news from MONTHS ago. People have been saying this for a very long time.
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Posted: 3/16/2017 10:06:56 PM EDT
[#11]
From what I have been seeing the HPA has been sent forward to different committees and one is the "ways and means committee" and another is finance and they are both tied up in unraveling the Obama Care mess. So before HPA will ever get a formal chance more pressing issues for the president and government will be placed first. I would like to see the HPA pass but I am not waiting around on it and let it deter any current suppressor purchases for me because if it ever passes suppressors will sell out the day it passes and will be hard to find for a while except for resale which will be double the current prices.
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Posted: 3/16/2017 10:07:48 PM EDT
[#12]
Basically it has to be added to another bill (unlikely) or wait until after the mid-term elections (sometime 2019) at which point it will have to be reintroduced. But miracles do happen I guess.
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Posted: 3/16/2017 10:08:40 PM EDT
[#13]
Quoted:
I did NOT know a Budget Reconciliation Bill is exempt from the 60 vote Filibuster. yep, they are also using to gut ObamaCare. |
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Posted: 3/16/2017 11:47:07 PM EDT
[#14]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Basically it has to be added to another bill (unlikely) or wait until after the mid-term elections (sometime 2019) at which point it will have to be reintroduced. But miracles do happen I guess. |
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Posted: 3/17/2017 7:04:43 AM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
IMO, it will be part of the tax cuts, which will be part of the budget reconciliation process, so it will be both added to a larger bill and go through reconciliation. (There are caveats in the Byrd Rule, but it would take Republican balls, which are ever shrinking it seems.) if I'm right, late summer into the fall... part of the "200 Day Plan." |
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Posted: 3/17/2017 7:18:11 AM EDT
[#16]
Quoted:
Also do you realize that these Democratic Senators listed below often vote "Yea" on 2A issues: Joe Donnelly (Ind) Martin Heinrich (NM) Heidi Heitkamp (ND) Joe Manchin (WV) Claire McCaskill (MO) Jon Tester (MT) Tom Udall (NM) Mark Warner (VA) Michael Bennett (CO) Could have fooled me. She's been a lost cause as long as I've been writing her. If McCaskill votes "yea" on a gun bill you can be sure the measure is bad for gun owners. Key votes |
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Posted: 3/17/2017 7:46:15 AM EDT
[#17]
Since Trump is open to regulatory reform, the best short term solution would be for him to rescind Rule 41F while at the same time eliminating the CLEO sign-off and fingerprint card submission requirements for individuals.
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Posted: 3/17/2017 7:49:06 AM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Since Trump is open to regulatory reform, the best short term solution would be for him to rescind Rule 41F while at the same time eliminating the CLEO sign-off and fingerprint card submission requirements for individuals. 
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Posted: 3/17/2017 7:52:57 AM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
https://i.imgflip.com/85j5j.jpg Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Since Trump is open to regulatory reform, the best short term solution would be for him to rescind Rule 41F while at the same time eliminating the CLEO sign-off and fingerprint card submission requirements for individuals. 
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Posted: 3/17/2017 8:07:31 AM EDT
[#20]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
The Byrd Rule is the problem though since it allows senators to block provisions of reconciliation bills easily. For a lot more information, check out this Introduction to Budget Reconciliation. There will be two budget resolutions this fiscal year. One to undo Obummer Care, one for the tax cuts. So there is time. IMO, what is clear is that the HPA has to move BEFORE the midterm elections. JPK |
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Posted: 3/17/2017 8:14:07 AM EDT
[#21]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
https://i.imgflip.com/85j5j.jpg Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Since Trump is open to regulatory reform, the best short term solution would be for him to rescind Rule 41F while at the same time eliminating the CLEO sign-off and fingerprint card submission requirements for individuals. JPK |
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Posted: 3/17/2017 8:14:35 AM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
If you google "Byrd Rule" you will find a nice, concise explanation. I would post a link but don't know how to do it on the iPad I am typing on. Here's my short try: Anything brought to a vote under reconciliation is subject to being blocked by one Senator's objection if it is either extraneous or if it isn't at least revenue neutral after ten years. There are caveats... But, as an example, if you recall the W Bush tax cuts, they sunset at 10yrs to avoid the Byrd Rule. JPK Snip, snip - eliminate both. Probably a net positive at .gov rates. |
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Posted: 3/17/2017 8:21:52 AM EDT
[#23]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
IMO, what is clear is that the HPA has to move BEFORE the midterm elections. Quote HistoryQuoted:
IMO, what is clear is that the HPA has to move BEFORE the midterm elections. Quoted:
The 41f regulations could be changed, but it would take at least six months and more likely a year to a year and a half from the time a revised provision was drafted because of notice and comment requirements of the Administrative Procedures Act. I suspect that the idea is to get HPA passed by then. |
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Posted: 3/17/2017 8:31:07 AM EDT
[#24]
The bill can be reintroduced in the Congress after the midterms, but my concern is that Republicans loose seats, and therefore, assuming a majority in the House and SenTe is maintained, nuts shrink even more.
They could have pushed 41f through faster and still met APA requirements, but I suspect that even the ATF was reluctant and that it's final implementation was at the explicit direction of Obummer's leftist, stateist minions. |
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Posted: 3/17/2017 8:48:04 AM EDT
[#25]
The most important reason it will pass has nothing to do with rules or Dem's insider politics. It has legs now because the industry groups pushing it have the backing of two of President Trumps son's who are avid sportsmen and they both want it. Don't ever underestimate the value of Presidential insiders pressing for things to make them happen. Budget reconciliation is just one of the vehicle's that can be used to get it through the Senate and onto the Presidents desk.
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Posted: 3/17/2017 8:53:00 AM EDT
[#26]
Some are saying the HPA could be added to a tax bill. I just don't see that happening. Yes, it would be the fastest way to pass the bill but I would think the potential negative implications by unwaining democrats for having something positive gun related attached to a larger bill would smash that idea.
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Posted: 3/17/2017 8:58:51 AM EDT
[#27]
Make it Revenue Neutral by removing 922o.
I can dream right... |
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Posted: 3/17/2017 10:50:29 AM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Biggest problem I see is that the Congress hasn't done jack in 3 months and summer vacation is right around the corner. They had 8 years to get ready and didn't bother. |
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Posted: 3/17/2017 10:56:14 AM EDT
[#29]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
It has legs now because the industry groups pushing it have the backing of two of President Trumps son's who are avid sportsmen and they both want it. Don't ever underestimate the value of Presidential insiders pressing for things to make them happen. |
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Posted: 3/17/2017 10:58:17 AM EDT
[#30]
Hahahahahaha. It will never pass. I love the enthusiasm though
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Posted: 3/17/2017 10:59:24 AM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Could have fooled me. She's been a lost cause as long as I've been writing her. If McCaskill votes "yea" on a gun bill you can be sure the measure is bad for gun owners. Key votes |
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Posted: 3/17/2017 11:34:43 AM EDT
[#32]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
So can anyone find any interview where any Trump has talked about silencers or HPA outside of the interview with SilencerCo? As far as their interest in seeing HPA pass, it is there. |
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Posted: 3/17/2017 11:37:55 AM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Some are saying the HPA could be added to a tax bill. I just don't see that happening. Yes, it would be the fastest way to pass the bill but I would think the potential negative implications by unwaining democrats for having something positive gun related attached to a larger bill would smash that idea. |
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Posted: 3/17/2017 11:44:36 AM EDT
[#34]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
The HPA will easily be revenue neutral - we pay $200 for the stamp, but think about all the time and energy spent processing the paperwork, conducting and reviewing the backgrounds, etc. Snip, snip - eliminate both. Probably a net positive at .gov rates. It would be great if 41f turned that around to a net boondoggle, given the "adding trustees after approval is OK" proof that ATF thinks photo, fingerprints and a background check are unnecessary for NFA items possession and use from any perspective. |
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Posted: 3/17/2017 11:50:36 AM EDT
[#35]
I don't understand how this bill can die in committee (from a logical standpoint, I understand identity politics). It should spend ONE DAY there. There is ZERO actual downside to the HPA. There is no way the cost of enforcing the NFA is offset by $200 tax stamps. The ONLY reason to oppose the HPA is to put on a dog and pony show of not letting those dirty racist republicans get away with anything.
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Posted: 3/17/2017 11:54:58 AM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Aaaaand welcome to news from MONTHS ago. People have been saying this for a very long time. What I didn't realize, and I suspect many others didn't realize, a Budget Reconciliation Bill (Tax Bill) is NOT subject to a Filibuster. So only a simply majority is needed to pass. I know your knowledge of the US tax code and inner workings of Congress are way beyond ours, and you already know all about this, but give a brother a chance to catch up. |
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Posted: 3/17/2017 2:43:01 PM EDT
[#37]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
What people have been saying for a LONG time is that the HPA could be added to a tax Bill as a way to get it through under the radar, or tied to other Budget related items that both parties want passed. To pass those the Dems would let the HPA slip through. What I didn't realize, and I suspect many others didn't realize, a Budget Reconciliation Bill (Tax Bill) is NOT subject to a Filibuster. So only a simply majority is needed to pass. I know your knowledge of the US tax code and inner workings of Congress are way beyond ours, and you already know all about this, but give a brother a chance to catch up. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Aaaaand welcome to news from MONTHS ago. People have been saying this for a very long time. What I didn't realize, and I suspect many others didn't realize, a Budget Reconciliation Bill (Tax Bill) is NOT subject to a Filibuster. So only a simply majority is needed to pass. I know your knowledge of the US tax code and inner workings of Congress are way beyond ours, and you already know all about this, but give a brother a chance to catch up. |
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Posted: 3/17/2017 2:43:40 PM EDT
[#38]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
So can anyone find any interview where any Trump has talked about silencers or HPA outside of the interview with SilencerCo? "Insider"? Pssssh. Donald J. does what Donald J. wants to do. |
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Posted: 3/17/2017 3:01:25 PM EDT
[#39]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
What people have been saying for a LONG time is that the HPA could be added to a tax Bill as a way to get it through under the radar, or tied to other Budget related items that both parties want passed. To pass those the Dems would let the HPA slip through. What I didn't realize, and I suspect many others didn't realize, a Budget Reconciliation Bill (Tax Bill) is NOT subject to a Filibuster. So only a simply majority is needed to pass. I know your knowledge of the US tax code and inner workings of Congress are way beyond ours, and you already know all about this, but give a brother a chance to catch up. |
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Posted: 3/17/2017 3:09:08 PM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
No, and I do not in any way, shape, or form translate Trumpy Junior chatting with SilencerCo as an indication that he has daddy's blessing. People are putting waaaaaay too many eggs in that basket. "Insider"? Pssssh. Donald J. does what Donald J. wants to do. Can his sons push legislation? No. But there are plenty of cosponsors who ought to be doing that. It doesn't hurt to have the President's sons mentioning the HPA to him so it doesn't get overlooked though, right? |
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Posted: 3/17/2017 3:40:01 PM EDT
[#41]
Well that's that...Half-a-brain and her minions are against it! love their logic:
" A.R.S. suggests the devices do not reduce noise enough to protect hearing while simultaneously suggesting suppressors reduce noise so much that “active shooters” can use them to avoid police detection." http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2017/03/17/gabby-giffords-mark-kelly-target-arizona-new-gun-control-group/ |
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Posted: 3/17/2017 4:57:49 PM EDT
[#42]
Not to be a party pooper, but it's never gonna pass. The HPA will die in committee stage.
It's not just me saying that. PredictGov gives it a 4% chance to pass. |
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Posted: 3/17/2017 5:03:47 PM EDT
[#43]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Not to be a party pooper, but it's never gonna pass. The HPA will die in committee stage. It's not just me saying that. PredictGov gives it a <a href="https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/115/hr367" target="_blank">4% chance to pass</a>. That's about where I'm at on it. I think we got tossed a bone to gnaw on and keep us quiet, but the bill isn't going anywhere. |
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Posted: 3/17/2017 6:50:02 PM EDT
[#44]
I'm all for making suppressors as common and legal as rakes and shovels but if I were a Congressman I'd be asking myself "What's the up side for voting for this?" Unless they have an overwhelming number of constituents demanding passage they've got to figure most of their voters don't know anything about the issue, don't care about the issue and probably won't understand why they voted to make silencers legal. How many want to have to defend a yes vote to the local (liberal) newspaper and the average voter who still thinks that suppressors are the tool of assassins?
Again, don't try to convince me about silencers. I get it. I'm just saying most Congressmen don't want to join a fight that they see no advantage to joining. Remember, they have to go home and justify their vote. If they're not true believers they're going to figure why bother. |
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Posted: 3/17/2017 7:22:51 PM EDT
[#45]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I'm all for making suppressors as common and legal as rakes and shovels but if I were a Congressman I'd be asking myself "What's the up side for voting for this?" Unless they have an overwhelming number of constituents demanding passage they've got to figure most of their voters don't know anything about the issue, don't care about the issue and probably won't understand why they voted to make silencers legal. How many want to have to defend a yes vote to the local (liberal) newspaper and the average voter who still thinks that suppressors are the tool of assassins? Again, don't try to convince me about silencers. I get it. I'm just saying most Congressmen don't want to join a fight that they see no advantage to joining. Remember, they have to go home and justify their vote. If they're not true believers they're going to figure why bother. |
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Posted: 3/17/2017 8:40:12 PM EDT
[#46]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I agree. Most people could care less about suppressors. I wish they would vote YES on it! But your point is a good one. Hopefully they shoot guns as well. Suppressors are about as well regarded as MGs in the eyes of the general voting public. Thank Hollywood. We more enlightened types are a small group. As far as waiting for HPA to pass: I'm mailing three $200 checks out next week. |
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Posted: 3/18/2017 7:33:25 AM EDT
[#47]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Since Trump is open to regulatory reform, the best short term solution would be for him to rescind Rule 41F while at the same time eliminating the CLEO sign-off and fingerprint card submission requirements for individuals. |
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Posted: 3/18/2017 8:19:06 AM EDT
[#48]
I think some of those Democratic Senators are starting to see the writing on the wall. Many of their states had a big Trump turnout. They should have gotten off the Obama train from the get go. Hope they all lose their seats and they abolish the 1934 gun act on up.
Quoted:
I came across this in an article today by Dean Weingarten via Ammoland from a few weeks back: "As a tax item, it [The HPA] could be included in a budget reconciliation bill, which is exempt from the 60 vote filibuster in the Senate. Avoiding the Senate filibuster may not be necessary. The bill is widely popular. There are about 100 million firearms owners in the United States. A bill that positively affects the health and safety of 30% of the population should be popular. Even the partisan Washington Post article on the bill had a hard time finding serious opposition." I did NOT know a Budget Reconciliation Bill is exempt from the 60 vote Filibuster. Here is the link to the full article: New Hearing Protection Act same as old HPA; Both in Top Ten for Attention If this is true, the HPA is a done deal. The House passes it with ease either as stand alone legislation or in a Budget Reconciliation Bill as described above. The Senate passes it as a either as stand alone legislation (possibly difficult) or as described above (not difficult). In the Senate, the simple majority vote (51) is totally there. President signs. Am I missing something? Also do you realize that these Democratic Senators listed below often vote "Yea" on 2A issues: Joe Donnelly (Ind) Martin Heinrich (NM) Heidi Heitkamp (ND) Joe Manchin (WV) Claire McCaskill (MO) Jon Tester (MT) Tom Udall (NM) Mark Warner (VA) Michael Bennett (CO) The reality is these Dems decision on the HPA will be heavily influenced by WHEN they are up for re-election I suspect. Assuming the 52 Republican Senators vote "Yea", 8 of the 9 Dems would have to vote "Yea" to get to 60. But with a Tax Bill there is no filibuster. So all they need is 51 votes in the Senate. I don't see how the HPA can NOT pass. Again, am I missing something here? This only strengthens my belief that the HPA is a done deal. |
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Posted: 3/18/2017 10:08:06 PM EDT
[#49]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I'm all for making suppressors as common and legal as rakes and shovels but if I were a Congressman I'd be asking myself "What's the up side for voting for this?" Unless they have an overwhelming number of constituents demanding passage they've got to figure most of their voters don't know anything about the issue, don't care about the issue and probably won't understand why they voted to make silencers legal. How many want to have to defend a yes vote to the local (liberal) newspaper and the average voter who still thinks that suppressors are the tool of assassins? Again, don't try to convince me about silencers. I get it. I'm just saying most Congressmen don't want to join a fight that they see no advantage to joining. Remember, they have to go home and justify their vote. If they're not true believers they're going to figure why bother. H.R. 367 Co-Sponsors |
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Posted: 3/18/2017 10:21:00 PM EDT
[#50]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
So then why does the HPA have 125 Sponsors in the House? Including 5 Democrats. That pretty much shoots down everything you are saying above. H.R. 367 Co-Sponsors ETA: I only see 2 dem cosponsors on there. Where did 5 come from? |
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