[ARCHIVED THREAD] - This is the official "Comments-Go-Here" for the April LaRue Giveaway. Winning # pg.4 (Page 1 of 4)
Posted: 4/1/2008 5:54:26 PM EDT
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mfingar did such a nice job on today's pics, I thought I better get a "comments-go-here" thread going ... Here's the same pics as are in the Giveaway thread. VACaver's March Stealth.  She liked the 75 TAP stuff the best. In haste, we up and packed the now-laminated target before we had enough sense to get a pic.  Molon would have rightfully sneered at the 3-shot group.   Fingar managed to catch an empty round in the air.   Nice cap.   In she goes.  VACaver, here's what's been Nextday'd your way. Storm case and all.   Stuff goin' out.   Lockin' her down.  Off she goes.   The Tunnel of Love.  From all of us here at Team LaRue, Way to go VACaver. M. LaRue www.laruetactical.com |
Sorry, but a shop tour would let the Wisconsin Widget Whackers "count our guns" so-to-speak, but here's another I forgot to post earlier. It 's a pic of our "Masters-of-Shipping". They routinely make us all look like a bunch of slackers. -   ML  |
Maybe |
Psst, that's this month. He wanted last month March report |
I'm pickin' up what you're puttin' down. Thanks for the chance at such a great raffle though! |
VACaver, You Sir, are a winner, in so many ways !!!  Enjoy, ML |
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Why does it grind my gears so damn bad that people don't pick their own damn number. mnd even provides a report that you can look at to see what numbers have not been selected. I don't know why it pisses me off buy it does. Do they not realize that their laziness reduces their chance to win. If they pick a number that is already picked, and that number is the winning number, all they have won is a 50% chance to lose. Damn laziness pisses me off.  RANT OFF ETA: shitty day at work, I had to bitch about something.  I feel better nowETA2: Shame on me for posting in this thread without thanking Mark for his generocity and giving us the chance to win such a fine package, no matter what our chances end up being. Mark, brother, you da man |
Maybe it's because they want that number (it's their lucky number or has specific meaning to them). I don't get why some people are in an uproar. Even if everyone did try and pick their own number, there aren't enough number's to go around. There are 1000 available and 1400+ entered last month. In the end, your odds can be no worse than the number of people that enter. if 1500 people enter, the worst case is that there is a 1 in 1500 chance in winning. In a sense, it may be better odds if the 1500 people double up on numbers. Lets say 1500 people are spread over 750 numbers. Now instead of 1:1500 your looking at 1 in 750 to get into the finals, and then on the redraw, you have a 50/50 chance. It actually gives you a much better chance to win. Of course the people who got away with being the only one to pick a specific number didn't have to worry about a redraw, but the overall odds for everybody were better because of the multiple selection of numbers. Edited for last month's example last month, there were 1451 valid entries. So worst case 1 in 1451. But, there were only 811 numbers picked. So all the people on the selected number have a 1 in 811 chance to get to the redraw (if needed). In last month's case, there was two people on the number, so the redraw was a 50/50 chance. So the odds were much better than the worst case 1 in 1451. so what I'm really trying to say is, sure it's better to be the only one on a number, but your odds are still better allowing multiple selections even if other people select the same number as you. So instead of getting bent out of shape about it, you should encourage it. |
Crap, wish I had seen that first. Sorry VoodooChile! |
Man, I love that tape!! Every time I see a box with it I get excited!!! BTW, lately there have been A LOT of boxes with that fucking awesome tape! Mike |
BEST case would have been 1/811 (disallowing dupes). As the rules stand, the "average" chance last month was 1/1451. If you had one of the multiples, it goes down from there. For instance, VACavers chance that his particular number would have been picked ended up being 1 in 811, x 2, for a final chance of 1/1622.
 A cap on the entries, or bumping up the total number and disalowing dupes would serve everyone better. We have the tools... |
It would be foolish to make the contest hinge on an independent service that provides no guarantees of accuracy other than openness for 3rd party review and no quality of service beyond that generated by my ongoing amusement. Further, everything is hosted on a non-redundant, low-availability 10 year old server sitting in my "office" at home. (A lowly dual PPro200) Every single contest I've had to tweak and modify stuff, mostly due to subtle site layout changes. This month I didn't have the automated updater running until about page 11 or so. Disqualifying dupes would mean everyone would be left to scan a 20+ page thread by hand if my internet connection went down. Further, near the end of the contest, both my report and manual scanning suffer from races (2 people submitting the same number within the same page.) Obviously I think its useful to try and reduce dupes, but there are practical limitations. Anyhow, the contest is fun and is hopefully providing incentive for new Team Members (I'd like to find a way of gauging this... Ideas? Ideally the report would give "gold stars" to new Team Members who enter.) |
Me thinks you're odds calculation fu is lacking. I'm not a stats expert but I know the odds for that scenario it is not calculated as 811x2. |
Roger that. I guess I'm one of those guys that gets frustrated by folks who show up to the party and dupes a number. Thank you for the service, even as it is!
I'm sorry, how should I have written it (honest question)? I'm no stats expert either, but it seems that if there were 811 valid numbers, and person A and person B picked the same digit; regardless of all other entries, the odds that either person A or B would win would be 1 in 1622. If you prefer decimals, it would start out as any given valid number of the 811 has a 0.1233% chance of being picked randomly. If two people picked that winning number, the percentage that either one of them would win would be 0.001233% * 50% (divided by 2 if you'd like), or 0.0006165%. Without getting ridiculous on the decimals, would you care to guess what 0.0006165 multiplied by 1622 equals? ETA: I didn't realize that the app that mnd had volunteered wasn't an official & stable part of the contest, so all of what I just posted is for naught.
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I couldn't agree more.  Props to Mark for doing such a kick ass give away!! If someone wins, would you allow them to come to the shop and tour/pick it up? I would seriously consider flying to TX if I won. |
See, I'm not alone!  Thomas has made me anal about the statistical analysis, so I did a bit of math: During the last contest, there were: 407 folks who had a 1/811 chance of winning. (one unique poster, one #) 486 folks who had a 1/1622 chance of winning. (one unique, one dupe poster) 294 folks who had a 1/2433 chance of winning. (one unique, two dupe posters) 124 folks who had a 1/3244 chance of winning. (one unique, three dupe posters) 80 folks who had a 1/4055 chance of winning. (one unique, four dupe posters) 42 folks who had a 1/4866 chance of winning. (one unique, five dupe posters) 21 folks who had a 1/5677 chance of winning. (one unique, six dupe posters) 16 folks who had a 1/6488 chance of winning. (one unique, seven dupe posters) 27 folks who had a 1/7299 chance of winning. (one unique, eight dupe posters) 10 folks who had a 1/8110 chance of winning. (one unique, nine dupe posters) Now some of those disqualified themselves (I'm just using the histogram numbers from the March report, along with 811 being the total # of individual digits picked), but it should illustrate the issue that dupe posters kind of ruin the odds for the original poster of a given digit. I know I'm being totally selfish with this, but if 2000 people enter the contest, I'd rather my chances be 1/2,000 rather than 1/20,000 simply 'cause folks like the same number I do and can't be bothered with checking. Is that rediculous? And again,
+ one meeeelyon.
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[ARCHIVED THREAD] - This is the official "Comments-Go-Here" for the April LaRue Giveaway. Winning # pg.4 (Page 1 of 4)
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