I've never bugged out.  Low profile (Grey Man) seems to be the generally accepted profile.  I understand the reasoning but does any one have experience or know of actual accounts where this works in a bug out.  I'm defining a bug out as emergency travel in times of civil unrest, as opposed to your run of the mill hurricane evacuation.

Grey is definitely a good idea if traveling in places where you could be attacked.  A typical example would be an American working in Iraq.  For a bug out I'm not convinced it's better than being obviously prepared and armed.  I'll be in the US and I think being gunned up is a good deterrent.  Am I thinking about this wrong?

I've had many arguments over this with my friend.  Here's my two cents:

The rolling, zombie-battle gunfights that people think of when they think SHTF is like.... extraordinarily rare in world history.  Like, the barbarian sack of Rome and a few other examples.  The VAST majority of dangerous conflicts are low-level hostility, on a wide scale- like Ferguson but all over America.

If you need to go overt, it's too easy to just roll out looking like an Xbox character.  But in realistic scenarios,  are you going to get all ninja'd up for days at a time?  I wouldn't.  Personally, I'd much rather have an option to be less profile.  ANY lessening of your profile is good.  If it earns you an extra glance before someone sees your rifle, it's worth it, no question.  Just like open carry vs. concealed carry.  You can always expose the pistol, but you can't make someone un-see it.

So for me, I try to stay low profile as much as possible.  If I can tone it down even a little, kudos to me.  A lot of the time, simple little tricks can do wonders.  Take your bag.  Don't matter which one.  Any bag.  Is it all bright and shiny?  New and clean?  Why not just give it a little lovin'?  A quick mist of tan Krylon takes my pristine black backpack and makes it look dirty.  Or, slap a square of duct tape or two on it, like it started to tear.

I don't buy $1k tacticool Urban Grey so I can camo through a crowd like Jason Bourne... but I do try to add a dash of hobo sauce (NOT THAT HOBO SAUCE, SICKO) whenever I can.  The exact application is very dependent on your personal situation, most likely bug out scenario, etc., but my rule of thumb is, "No one mugs a bum."

Most folks think they will be the only gunned up killer on the road.

There are, sadly, guys with great skill with a sociopath personality that will snipe you off at 300 yards and calmly walk up and take your shit. Especially if you look like a target worth sniping.

Grey is the way. look like the poor refugees as best as you can.

Who looks like they are worth getting something from

This guy?


This guy?


Or this guy?


300 yards is not that hard of a shot with grand daddies '06 and a clear field of fire from a well prepared hide.

Actually the homeless in my area are constantly targeted for crime.  I personally put a stop to a couple teenagers mugging a homeless woman near a public bathroom while I was working a security gig at the hotel next door.

Right now, lots of folks consider bums easy targets.  But if most folks realized some of the diseases they carry and the razor blades, sometimes rusty and nasty, they carry then some folks might change their mind.



During bad times I want to look like someone who has some hiking/camping gear and is capable of getting where he is headed.



I don't want to look like I am ready to shoot anyone who looks threatening cause as someone said, 300 yards is hard for me to cover vs. someone ambushing me.



I do want to be ready to quickly deal with a threat.



Bama's thread in general discussion covers this pretty dang well.  Don't look like a threat to others who are out and about, but don't appear to be easy pickings either.

There's always someone bigger and badder....

GD is a busy place....and I find no user named "Bama" with a search. Care to offer a link, or enough detail to find it? Sounds interesting.

Most bug-outs won't necessarily be a WROL scenario where there is no LEO or even National Guard presence.  You can still be fully prepared, armed and ready to engage without attracting attention.  Once you attract attention, you will at the least get held up; at worst, the first one targeted or considered a hostile. It's not necessarily the armed presence that acts as a deterrent, but more of an attentive individual that is very aware of what's going on around them.  

Any crisis situation will be fluid and chaotic.  Your planning and reparation needs to also be fluid and adaptable.  

ROCK6

http://www.ar15.com/forums/t_1_5/827830_Bama_s_Guide_to_SHTF_Survival_and_EandE___UPD_2015_info_on_PG_13.html

http://www.nbcsandiego.com/news/local/Teens-Heading-to-Court--284619111.html
http://www.nbcsandiego.com/news/local/Arrest-Made-Thursday-in-Chula-Vista-385899591.html

You want to be inconspicuous. Drawing attention to yourself as a guy who looks like soldier is as bad as drawing attention to yourself as someone who looks like an easy mark.

It is best to go unnoticed and it is best to avoid herds.

All this talk about bums....
Read the Tom Clancy book "Without Remorse".   Hero of the book adopts the bum/homeless guy routine to conduct recon of his targets and their AO.  

Pretty effective.   Most everyone leaves him alone to do his thing.

I think owning the night would be the ideal way to bug out.

I'm goin roll up in the straight up Compton hood with a blinged out escalade with money falling all over it, roll the windows down, leave it unlocked, and just creep.  Nothin happen right?

Which is why you have to be smarter and faster.

I suppose it would depend on the situation.  Natural disaster event?  Probably better to remain low key.  Some type of TEOTWAWKI?  I think it would be better to look like you're not too be fucked with.  

You can always play what if: what if you're shot from 300m away by someone laying in wait?  What if someone drops a brick through your windshield from an over pass?  What if a group of thugs jump you and gang rape you?  You could probably come up with any number of scenarios why something will or won't work.

You need to balance it a bit. You dotn want to look packed full of (expensive) gear. Even visibly carrying a weapon can complicate things a lot during escape/evacuation. At the same time you dont want to look like a soft target. Staying relatively fit and aware of your surrounding will go a long way towards that end. Were I come from cops get shot on the back or simply ran over with a car just to take their gun an BA so again, its not wise to have other people know you are armed in most cases.
FerFAL

When I lived in the city. My bug out plan was this.
Load up..gtfo..anyone stopping that was a threat and would be dealt as such.


But.


My area..living location dictated that kind of ROE plan.

This is so true. "Gray" is looking like everyone else. I live in a large urban area and we have all kinds; cowboys, goth/punk rockers types, what we used to call yuppies, people wearing work clothes and others wearing the new, in style tactical/hipster look. Bums don't blend in, in fact, they draw attention everywhere they go. Try sitting in an outdoor seating area in a downtown area where homeless people wander about. See how people react to them. There's a lot of on guard behavior like clutching of purses and bags and moving away. People suspect the homeless will try to steal from them or hurt them so they watch them. I think it would be better, as protus suggested, to dress like the local population. (also that whole "bum" thing is hard to pull off. Bums are genuinely filthy with weeks and maybe years of poor hygiene. That's hard to replicate with an old backpack and some grubby clothes.)

If you have a GHB it's probably smart if that bag is a bit broken in and worn looking. A brand new bag will get the attention of the folks who mean to take from you or do you harm. It's probably a good idea to take that GHB out of your trunk every once in a while and carry it around some. It will wear off the newness and let you know if you have packed too much stuff.

And in the case of the guy who is sniping "operators/armed people" from 300 yard away, don't you think he would shoot just about everyone? He's probably a guy who either sees everyone as a potential threat to his existence or he's a nut who's been waiting for this moment for his entire life. As was pointed out in an earlier post, you can't plan for every contingency. The kill-crazy, sniper is a tough one to plan around. In that scenario moving among a large crowd will increase your odd of survival if only because the sniper has more targets to choose from.

As I see it, its all about timing. Events don't get to this point overnight. There will be a window of opportunity to bug out without too much chaos. The longer you wait the more difficult it becomes. I'm sure we've all played out the "when is it time to bug out" scenario in our head. I know I have. Being able to make that call when we think it might be the time will hopefully be obvious, but I doubt it will be that cut and dry.

Some really thought provoking responses  I was a Marine and some of my friends are  current or former US Army Rangers.  Our default mindset is that you own your environment.  It's hard to leave behind, even if you no longer travel with dozens of your heavily armed friends.

I think it's also unlikely that I'll have to travel through a completely lawless area.  I usually think either LE will be there and it will be like a road trip at Thanksgiving, or they won't be there and I'm on my own.  I didn't previously consider that they could be part of the problem.  

I'm of the same mindset.

I've invested in several NV devices as well.

actually I think it's possible to 'over think' this issue.  If you have skills in this area, then I'd suggest making your move based on where you are, the type and extent of the crisis, and what resources you have available at the time.

If you have to travel, by vehicle by day in numbers, by night on foot in adverse weather conditions.

I have the gear and the mentality to make miles in downpours. Most people don't like rain and snow. Use others weaknesses to your advantage when it comes to moving across the land. Uneven topography and thick cover, use it. Bog and swamps, use it. Most Americans these days are soft, it would take a while for people to harden up in a SHTF situation that necessitated bugging out.

My Bug Out plan is geared towards hurricanes and weather events. I pack up the car and head to my brothers with a hitch carrier full of discrete gas cans.

Such horror

I think grey with the ability to be rapidly armed makes the most sense.  If being clearly armed makes you a target, you can't go back to grey once someone sees you.  If you start grey, you can change to armed if you need to.

There's no one answer to cover every situation, but drawing less attention is probably a good thing in general.

Easier said than done.  Some, probably including myself, will never have the Danny Trejo going on.  At best, I will look like Sheldon Cooper trying to look like somebody tough.  :D

I think a lot of this will depend on where you are out here I would be more suspicious of the guy without the gun.....
Tats and aggressive behaviour is what will trigger me as that's the gang banger MO out here.

Ha.  It's not all about tattoos and grimacing.  How would you rather confront walking up your driveway: a frowning Danny Trejo walking with his shirt off and empty handed, or Sheldon Cooper with an odd smirk holding a sword?

I guess I just can't get behind the idea that you should make yourself look like you're any easier of a target.  I'm also not saying rolling around in full battle kit might be any better.  You're going to have stuff people want if you're surviving.  There's no way around it.

I have already bugged out but wife wants to travel so I now need some cheap minimum NV that gets the job done so I don't have to worry about the truck being broken into.

Is there any other kind of Danny Trejo or Sheldon Cooper?



I agree that looking weak is not better. If I had to bug out, and affect an attitude, I guess somebody like Walter White would be the way to go.  Unremarkable, but capable.  Just not the hat.

Risk vs Reward

I made a diagram:

Environment analysis

Where do you live? What would force you to leave your security?

My home is at elevation. No flooding. Inland, hurricanes have minimal effect. Snow and ice? I lost power for 6 days one winter, but so did everyone else, why leave?

Mid 50s, im in no shape with my wife to be humping gear to a safe haven.

I am holing up and relying on my substantial resources, my roof and my foundation. Short of massed artilery on my position i see no reason to leave.

Stay low, stay silent, remain unseen, pick your moments and move on.

This. This is how my father's family escaped Manila and bugged out to the provinces after the Japanese invaded. Hid during the day, and traveled at night if it was safe. He's getting up there in age and rarely says much about that experience anymore, other than saying it took a long time to travel the ~ 60 miles.

Very well stated.  I'd would lean this way I believe

All you need is a blanket and hat.....

Grey man, always. I have stopped buying tacticool stuff for bug out. If i bug out I am gonna look like a normal person*

One of my favorite books. It's about time for another read through.

This

 

The reason to go grey man is not for but out. It's so you can do it every day. If you buy all kinds of cool stuff it will sit in a closet waiting for a wet dream.

This term gets used so much "bugout". I have a family and I'm aging. I plan on bugging in. Shouldnt be too bad in my rural town. Once you bugout, you're officially a refugee.

 

My equipment I have is more for get home than anything else. But it can be used for any purpose.


I don't have a 65 lb pack with axes and machetes and an entrenching tool and hammocks, et al. Not my thing anymore and doesn't match reality.

Came to post exactly this, however not as creatively.   I would be somewhere in between.

I am with you.  I have things set-up here so that I could survive.  I am too old to throw on a huge pack an go hiking and hunting with no fixed location.

My version of 'grey man' would be grey house.  Don't look like you have anything worth stealing or killing you for.



 

I live in NE Rural GA. The largest city's to me are Athens GA  40Min away and Atlanta 1 HR away.

The scenario that I have personally prepared for is snowpocalypse  2.0. If you do not know what I am referring to just google Atlana Snowpocalypse and you will see how 1" of snow can cripple city dwellers.  If for some reason me or my wife with 1 or both of our kids is stuck out in something like that again I want them to have something to eat stay warm and protect themselves.

What I have done to prepare for this is used old used school backpacks and diaper bags filled them with the necessity 2-3 MREs, Water, Blankets, Fire making supplies and or MSR Stoves. Multi Tools, ass wipe, socks, flashlights, Small cooking pot. etc  And of course hand gun in car or on person. No tactical clothes or FDE mall ninja gear. And my wife and myself wear clothes that most Campers, Hikers would wear. Like Columbia or Carhartt. So we ourselves do not give the impression we are armed or a threat or have alot of money but we also dont look like we are some pushovers with hello kitty backpacks and Mine Craft T-shirts.  

I had 2 friends that was in Atlanta when this all went down. One worked for UPS and the other was doing security work for a hospital (hes a state officer).

The UPS employee had 2 women ask if they could come use the bathroom in the back of his truck because their was no where to pee. Of course he said no. lol He also had people around him freaking out because they had no water, food or gas to get to the next exit. Pretty pitiful that someone can not go a few hours with out snack time. People would stop at his truck and ask if he had something to eat and or drink. Which he didn't. He said he felt bad for some of the people. Their was a few women with small children that actually needed help and he could not do anything for them.

The friend that was working security has a 4x4 truck and was able to make it home. But he had to travel back roads all the way home. It took him 3-4 hrs (standard drive is 1 Hr). He meet hundreds of people who spun out and slid in ditches or in the middle of the road that could not get out. He did help a few out but started to get low on fuel and just started to have to bypass them. He said it was the most surreal thing he has ever experienced. Like the walking dead but no one biting.  But him having a 4 door 4X4 truck in a situation like that is the opposite of grey man. I am sure he stuck out like a sore thumb.


Snowpocalypse was pretty bad but I think things would have to get really really bad for the Grey man concept to come into full bloom. When I think of Grey man I think of foot travel only and aggressors actively and regularly attacking people in your general area which in the US is extremely rare.

It always amazes me how southerners regularly completely lose their minds when a little bit of the white stuff comes down. A couple inches of snow is NOT an emergency in any way, shape, or form. You simply need to SLOW DOWN when driving - you'll just get where you're going a little later than usual. It's winter, you should be dressed for cooler weather already. You should be carrying some water and some non-perishable food in your vehicle already, no matter what the season is. 4 wheel drive is NOT necessary, it is a convenience that's nice to have when the weather REALLY turns to shit up here. I lived the first 38 years of my life without 4wd and managed just fine.

They dont clear the roads or salt them down there man. A little ice down there combined with folks who have never driven on ice is a bad combo. I was in Dallas for an ice storm once and didn't see a single gravel truck or salt spreader. That makes the roads way worse than a nice clean plowed road with salt on it.

Finnbear, you know not of what you speak.  You've gotten by in Ohio without 4wd because of sand, salt, and plowing.  And likely because ice storms are largely unheard of in the North but frequent in the South.

The problem is complicated and has zero to do with "southerners not knowing how to drive in snow."  First, all the Yankee transplants get out and drive unnecessarily to demonstrate that they're better than everyone else and they wreck.  Second, even in my 4wd truck, loaded with stumps in the bed and 20 years of Massachusetts driving experience, there are plenty of places when untreated that are simply impassable.  So get used to that.  Finally, the roads are clogged with stuck vehicles and emergency services/wreckers are completely overwhelmed.

So yeah, it is a big deal.  And it does separate the few of us who have done *anything* to prepare from the sweeping majority who have not.  Who don't have more than a few ketchup packets in the house to eat because all they do is eat out.  Not to mention water or heat sources.

And, things like this are far more likely to happen than ZombiePocalypseArfcomWetDreamRamboAtLast.  So everybody do yourselves a favor and be sure you're prepped for this - will be a step in the right direction for something bigger.

And  Northerners can't drive in a Southern rainstorm.



 

I'd rather drive in the Atlanta snowpocalypse than LA when it's raining. Fortunately both events only happen about once a decade.