from: Chronwatch.com


Weaponizing Civilization: The New Way of War
Written by Raymond Kraft
Saturday, August 12, 2006

War has morphed, indeed, in ways unimaginable fifty years ago.



The Islamic Resistance Movement (IRM), the Jihad, which includes Al Qaeda, Hamas, Hezbollah, and all other like-minded folk, is much smarter about it than we are.  It has turned the civility of the United States and Europe, into a weapon and turned it against us.  It has weaponized niceness, it has weaponized compassion, it has weaponized the fundamental decency of Western Civilization.  It has weaponized our desire for peace.  It has recognized that our goodness is no match for its savagery, and will continue to exploit that fact until we lose and they win.  However long it takes.  Centuries, generations, decades, years, months.

The soft underbelly of America in particular and Western Civilization in general is that it has become so excessively nice and decent and civilized that it is now loathe to rise to its own self-defense, loathe to kill civilians when necessary, loath to cause "collateral damages," loathe to fight and defeat other countries, even when its own survival is at stake.  We have emasculated our will to rise to our own defense, to the defense of our interests, to the defense of our friends and allies, to the defense of our own civilization and its unique freedoms.  We would rather die than kill.  We are willing to martyr ourselves and our children and their children and our country to the conceit of our own goodness.  We have spent sixty years obsessing (as a culture, as a nation) with whether we might have done the wrong thing by nuking Hiroshima and Nagasaki, even if it did end World War II, even if it did save a million American casualties and maybe five or ten or twenty million Japanese casualties . . . the nuclear annihilation of Hiroshima and Nagasaki might well have saved  Japan from extinction, since if the Japanese had all fought to the death as they promised and threatened to do there wouldn't have been enough Japanese left to be Japan anymore, so that, in a perverse way, Japan may now owe its existence to America's willingness to nuke Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

We can't imagine ourselves nuking Hiroshima or Nagasaki, or firebombing Dresden or Tokyo anymore, killing scores of thousands of civilians in the process, or laying waste to Beirut, or Damascus, or Tehran.  We're way too nice for all that, now.  We have become much more civilized.

So the Jihadis hide in plain sight among the civilians, and thumb their noses and say "Check!"  And we are stuck harassing their pawns because we lack the will to topple their knights and bishops, kings and queens, with all the "collateral damage" that would happen in the process.  We can't imagine ourselves nuking Beirut, or Damascus, or Tehran, not even to save the world from the Islamic Resistance Movement, the Jihad of puritanical Islamic Nazism.  So far, we can't even imagine ourselves deconstructing the infrastructure and economies of Syria and Iran in the way Israel is presently deconstructing Lebanon to save ourselves from the Jihad.

The Islamic Resistance Movement, the Jihad of puritanical Islamic Nazism, is strategically very intelligent.  It has calculated that although it lacks the massed military force to confront the United States directly in battle, by The Management of Savagery it can foment endless incidents of terrorism and theaters of seemingly inexhaustible savagery in many places all over the world, year after year, decade after decade, until the Americans, Aussies, and Brits, are worn down, exhausted, demoralized, and no longer have the political will to keep trying to defend Western Civilization from the savages.  At that point the IRM can begin to take things over with little objection or resistance, since they will promise peace--PEACE--the peace America is psychologically and politically obsessive about.  They will offer peace with the right hand, and an end to the savagery they have created with the left.  And after years or decades of widespread savagery, peace will be welcomed.  The price for peace, of course, will be an Islamic Empire, an empire in which the unique freedoms of Western Civilization, intellectual freedom, religious freedom, political freedom, freedom of speech, and freedom of the press, will not exist, an empire in which one can be anything one wishes to be, as long as it is Muslim.

Today, we see this strategic philosophy at work in Iraq, in Lebanon, in Sudan, in Somalia, and its gestation in Venezuela, where Hugo Chavez is arming against an American threat that does not exist, in order to turn Venezuela into a hostile camp calculated to pull America into a military intervention to prevent the destabilization of South America, a strategic calculation intended to force America's military and economic overextension, and therefore America's weakening, with the assistance of Russia, China, and the Islamic Resistance Movement.

This Strategic Philosophy is very clearly articulated in The Management of Savagery (linked), translated from the Arabic, which can be readily found on the Internet via any good search engine.  While America wants peace, and recoils from the projection of deliberate savagery, the Islamic Resistance Movement embraces and adopts savagery, "managed savagery," as its primary militant tactic, calculating, correctly, so far, that America, which wants to be nice and doesn't really want to hurt anybody, will never respond with equal or greater force, or savagery.  Thus, it calculates, Islam can easily withstand the pulled punches America is willing to throw, while America will eventually succumb to the never-ending managed savagery of militant Islam.  Unfortunately, America does not appear to have a Strategic Philosophy, and therefore, the IRM accurately calculates, while America does not want to lose this war, America, blinded by the conceit of its own goodness to the ruthless malevolence of others, does not understand this war, and therefore lacks the will, the clear vision, and the decisiveness to win it.

The  Chinese and the Russians do not want to fight a war with America, not openly and directly; they would get hurt too badly, no matter who "won," and they do not need to.   They want a reasonably prosperous and productive America to sell stuff to, and buy stuff from, but they would be hugely pleased to see America cut down to size a bit, or a lot, an America that was a No. 3 Semi-Super Power, after China and Russia, or Russia and China, in either order, or maybe No. 4 after China, Russia, and the New Islamic Caliphate.  They would like to see an America that is about as much a threat to anybody as the European Union is now, so the Chinese and Russians can run the global show as they see fit, ration the oil, and pocket the profits.

Thus, they are perfectly happy to sell weapons to Hezbollah, calculating that the Hezbos & Friends will do the dirty work for them, will maintain a generation of savagery all over the world (except in Russia and China), and that America will exhaust itself, its politics, its will and economy, trying to "control" and contain the savagery, but lacking the will and strategic vision to root out its roots, because that would cause way too many civilian casualties, and America cannot stomach the infliction of civilian casualties, or the destruction of nations, even if they are sponsors of terror.  We're way too nice for all that.  And so our "niceness" is turned and weaponized against us.  We have become too civilized to defeat our enemies, perhaps too civilized to survive.  The dagger of our decency stabs us in the back.

We've been sucker punched, but we set ourselves up for it, and we won't admit it.  We actually think that Hezbollah, Hamas, Al Quaeda, the whole Islamic Resistance Movement, the whole Jihad, is a bunch of "non-state actors."  Technically, but only theoretically, they are.  In form, but not in substance.[/b]  In real life they're rather conspicuously the agents and co-conspirators of  nation states (Iran, Syria, Lebanon, Russia, China, North Korea, at least) that want to deflate America without having an open war with America, and have figured out that as long as they can send in the street soldiers of the Muslim Mafia to do the dirty work we will do everything we can to avoid a real war with the real Godfathers.  We love peace too much.  And it's working.  Perfectly.

In the law of agency, the Principle is liable for the acts and omissions of his Agent.  The Employer (principle) is liable for the acts and omissions of his Employee (agent), at least within the course and scope of the employment, at least within the scope of the intended purposes and objectives of the agency.  The Conspirator is liable for the acts of his Co-Conspirator, at least within the scope of the objectives of the conspiracy.  Thus, applying this basic principle of agency and conspiracy to geopolitics, we should be holding Iran, Syria, Lebanon, Russia, China, and North Korea, who are providing weapons to the Jihad with which to attack Israel and America and the new Iraqi democracy, and providing safe havens and money and technical assistance for the Islamic Resistance Movement, responsible for the acts and omissions of their agents, Hamas, Hezbollah, Al Quaeda, et al., but we lack the intellectual and strategic clarity, and the political will, to do so.

We insist on indulging our fine little fantasy that "nation states" are, ipso facto, somehow legitimate, and should not be attacked, much less destroyed, not even on the floor of the United Nations General Assembly by John Bolton, not even when they engage in a criminal conspiracy with the terrorists of the Islamic Resistance Movement to obliterate Israel and divide, demoralize, deplete, defeat, deflate, and dessicate America.

Israel is doing a little better than we are, at last, and we should follow the Israeli example, as far as it goes, and then go the rest of the way.  We will have to, sooner or later, unless we intend to aquiesce to the vastly diminished role in the world our enemies have planned for us.  We should do so sooner, before the Jihad gets nuclear weapons, rather than later, after it has them, when the price of defeating the Jihad, in dollars and blood, ours and theirs, will go up by several orders of magnitude.

A good start would be to give short notice to Iran and Syria that we expect the terrorism, in Iraq and everywhere else, to end, NOW.   They've been hospitable to the Islamic Resistance Movement, the IRM, the Jihad, they support it, they arm it, they give it safe haven, and it's time to stop to it.   Lob that ball back into THEIR court.  So, they have, say, a week, two weeks, ten days, to shut it down.  No more.  After that, if there is an Islamic terrorist attack ANYWHERE ON EARTH we start rolling up the carpet on Iran and Syria (while Israel continues to dismantle Lebanon)--i.e., hold Iran and Syria hostage to American terror,  just as they are now holding the United States hostage to Islamic terror.

Except we do not hold them hostage to random terror, as they do--WE GIVE THEM CONTROL--if they end Islamic terrorism, then they have nothing more to fear from us.  If they do not end Islamic terrorism, then they have everything to fear.  And if the terrorism does not stop on schedule, then we start taking apart the armed forces, infrastructure, and economies, of Syria and Iran, piece by piece, using all necessary and convenient force, until the terrorism stops and they surrender, unconditionally, as Germany and Japan once did.  So far, because they understand that we do not yet fully understand this war, and will not do what is necessary to win it, they do not fear us.

Now, Russia and China want to be on the winning side of things in ten years when the dust settles, so they are selling weapons to the IRM, Hamas, Hezbollah, Al Qaeda, Iran, betting that America will not wake up and smell the coffee, and will not develop the intellectual, strategic, or moral clarity to recognize that it is dying a death of a thousand cuts, until long after it's too late to save the patient, or the victim.  So far, Russia and China are betting on the right horse.

And so as the political will of America to save itself slowly (or quickly) expires, we will see, in our lifetimes, maybe within the next few election cycles, or the next few years, a New World Order emerge, not the one American conspiracy theorists fear, but a far more deadly and malevolent one in which a new Islamic Caliphate, a new Islamic Empire, rises as a strutting puppet of the new superpowers, Russia, and China, with America relegated to geopolitical inconsequence, vying with the geopolitically inconsequential European Union for a distant fourth or fifth place in the pecking order.

Russia and China will not be overrun by the Islamic Resistance Movement, since they do not have our qualms about collateral damages, civilian casualties, nor our obsession with being "nice."  They do not have our pathological desire to be liked by everyone.  They do not fancy themselves quite so civilized, so "over-civilized," as do we, and so their civility cannot be weaponized and turned against them.  They do not want "peace" as obsessively as we do, and so their passion for "peace" cannot stab them in the back.  They will have no trouble ceding a large part of the world to the Islamic sphere of influence, the Arabian subcontinent, Africa, southern Europe, western Europe, with the message to Ahmadinejad, or whoever succeeds him, that "you can do whatever you like, as long as you cooperate with us, and as long as you don't threaten us, in which case your life expectancy will grow very short."  Russia and China are not paralyzed by our pathological aversion to the use of savagery in self-defense, or in the pursuit of their national self-interests.

I.e., Russia and China are waiting in the wings to pick up the geopolitical spoils after the Islamic Resistance Movement deflates and defeats the will of America to defend itself and its interests, and exhausts and obliterates Israel.  Russia and China will not threaten American sovereignty in North America, because they will be very happy to look to America as a source of technology exports, cheap labor, and cheap food.

The support of Russia and China for the Islamic Resistance Movement (via Iran) will, however, evaporate, when, or IF, the United States comes to its senses and begins to systematically deconstruct the ability and will of Iran, Syria, and the Islamic Resistance Movement, to project terrorism throughout the world.  Russia and China, quite logically, want to be on the winning side of things when the dust settles.  And if another horse starts to run faster, they'll change their bets.

It is not yet too late for America to wake up, smell the coffee, come to its senses, but with each day it gets later.  The unsettling reality that America must recognize is that, if it is to survive in anything resembling its present form, dominance, influence, and prosperity, it must decide to subordinate its "niceness," its debilitating civility, its incapacitating decency, its sniveling obsession with being "liked" by the rest of the world, no matter how ineffectual or snobbish or opportunistic or barbaric the rest of the world may be, to the necessities of defending itself and others, its allies and friends, its Judeo-Christian civilization, and indeed the entire non-Islamic world, from the otherwise implacable advance of the Islamic Resistance Movement that intends to abolish Western Civilization as we have known it, and usher in a new world order of Islamic Empire, a thousand year reich of puritanical Islamic Nazism.


About the Writer: Raymond Kraft is a lawyer and writer living and working in Northern California. Raymond receives e-mail at [email protected].

Good article.....a must read.

There was some bitch on FNC this morning talking about how horrible it is for Israel be causing "civilian casualties".

I kept saying to the tv; "that's war bitch".

She needs to read this article.  It is dead on.

I see in the news that Hezbollah is backing the UN Ceasefire Proposal (so they can rearm)



Crusader Motherf_ckers! No Quarter Asked. No Quarter Given.

Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin to slit throats. -H.L. Mencken

Kraft must be one helluva carpenter.

Russia and China will not threaten American sovereignty in North America, because they will be very happy to look to America as a source of technology exports, cheap labor, and cheap food.

Very wishful thinking!

Direct Russian and Chinese support of the LaRaza/Aztlan movement will likely happen in the endgame, to extinguish the US once and for all.  The Soviet Union did look for ways (unsuccessfully) to ignite Black Revolution during the 1960s for this same purpose.

This article is dead on IMO. Two weeks notice, then nuke Iranian city (not Teheran at first, and no tac nuke either, at least a 1 megaton warhead). Give another notice, any more attacks, nuke Damascus. Another week, any more attacks, Teheran goes up next. Work down the list from there if needed. Our nukes and technology are our biggest assets, but we are petrified to use them. This article is absolutely right. These Islamic regimes respect only APPLIED power, not a theoretical power that kept the Russians in line, i.e. the MAD concept of mutual destruction.

Teddy Roosevelt was right, the world might respect us, or fear us, but they will never love us. We need to get our heads on right.

Very eloquent representation of my and many others on this board's feelings.

It's hard to say it without geting banned I advocated nuking a city or two over there long time ago.

Give them a list of cities starting with mecca. Next terrorist attack, nuke mecca and so on and so on....

sharp lawyer.  this deserves a bump.

Quoted: sharp lawyer.  this deserves a bump Tack.

shameless bump

Another well deserved bump.

Everyone needs to read this.




-K

This article from the Ayn Rand Institute kind of echoes the same idea.  Deal with the issues objectively now or subjectively forever.

www.theobjectivestandard.com/issues/2006-spring/just-war-theory.asp

“Just War Theory” vs. American Self-Defense

Yaron Brook and Alex Epstein

Authors’ Note: This essay is partially based on a lecture, “The Morality of War,” delivered by Yaron Brook at numerous venues across the country including the 2004 Objectivist Summer Conference.

It has been nearly five years since September 11, 2001—the day that Islamic terrorists incinerated thousands of innocent individuals in the freest, wealthiest, happiest, and most powerful nation on earth.

On that day and in the weeks after, we all felt the same things. We felt grief, that we had lost so many who had been so good. We felt anger, at whomever could commit or support such an evil act. We felt disbelief, that the world’s only superpower could let this happen. And we felt fear, from the newfound realization that such evil could rain on any of us. But above all, we felt the desire for overwhelming retaliation against whomever was responsible for these atrocities, directly or indirectly, so that no one would dare launch or support such an attack on America ever again.

To conjure up the emotions we felt on 9/11, many intellectuals claim, is dangerous, because it promotes the “simplistic” desire for revenge and casts aside the “complexity” of the factors that led to the 9/11 attacks. But, in fact, the desire for overwhelming retaliation most Americans felt after 9/11—and feel rarely, if ever, now—was the result of an objective conviction: that a truly monstrous evil had been perpetrated, and that if the enemies responsible for the 9/11 attacks were not dealt with decisively, we would suffer the same fate (or worse) again

I would like the Israelis to declare Hezbollah and Hamas to be proxy armies of Iran and Syria.

Next step is to say any attack against Israel will be interpreted as an attack by Iran and Syria.

When the inevitable Islamikaze attack occurs, the IDF should detonate nukes 10 miles above Tehran and Damascus. The resulting EMP will have the Iranians and Syrians living in the 7th century again.

That way the Israelis can honestly say they didn't kill any Iranians or Syrians. They only helped them achieve their desire to go back to their fundamentalist Islamic roots.

Bump back to top for a good article.

He needs to define who the "WE", he keeps refering to, is. Without that, the article is just drivel.

Quoted: He needs to define who the "WE", he keeps refering to, is. Without that, the article is just drivel.

"We" = "America in particular and Western Civilization in general"

^

up

This Article that I posted seems to have received a lot of Bumps.

I only disagree with the Author of the Article on a few points.

(1.) The first country singled out should NOT receive an initial Warning. Instead it should serve as an example to other terrorist sponsoring countries.
Just a Bolt out of the Blue.

A list of unreasonable (and very Muslim like) edicts can then follow regarding:
Religious Beliefs, Morality, etc.

You see there are some differences between the Imperial Japanese and the Islamofacists. True they are both death cults that worship the act of dying for a particular cause. However, Islamofacism is not tied to a particular race, country or government. Instead it is tied to religion.

To effectively deal with Islamofacists: one must first understand their point of view and take them seriously, by playing the game with their rule set.
The rule set of 8th Century Islam. This means that all conflicts are viewed as a religous belief struggle. That Western Inventions such as the accepted International Rules of Warfare should not be applied unless, Islamofacists are willing to reciprocate by abiding by such rules.
Protection to Noncombatants should only be granted if Islamofacists are willing to reciprocate. (i.e. no more kidnapping and murdering civilians who are trying to help them)

Otherwise it is just Open Season...with no Bag Limits.

It is a fundamental fact that a group of people will not truly seek peace unless they are willing to accept the view that they have nothing to gain and everything to lose by continuing an armed struggle.
This is what happened with Japan during WWII. The effort required firebombing Japanese Cities and reducing their Industrial Capacity to nil. It was in doing so, that the United States gained the respect of the Japanese, as well as their capitulation.

bump for two very important articles

I think the theory is that the minute we do something like this article proposes, a nuke on a city, then the oil stops or at the very least there is an all out attack on oil fields all over the ME, which might make them easier to kill.......

But I generally agree, if the moral high ground involves suicide, the other guy can have it.

quote]Quoted:

Quoted: He needs to define who the "WE", he keeps refering to, is. Without that, the article is just drivel.

"We" = "America in particular and Western Civilization in general"

We can't imagine ourselves nuking Hiroshima or Nagasaki, or firebombing Dresden or Tokyo anymore, killing scores of thousands of civilians in the process, or laying waste to Beirut, or Damascus, or Tehran. We're way too nice for all that, now. We have become much more civilized.


Most of the people I know can barely wait for that to happen to Beirut, or Damascus, or Tehran .

Again, he needs to define the "WE"

Most people on this site agree with this and realize it, it's the other tens of millions of americans who need to wake up from the good american way of life and prepare to sacrifice something for the survival of this country who should read it and take heed.

The enemy is attacking our Center of Gravity. Smart.
We need to go after his Center of Gravity.
Ironically, HIS Center of Gravity is the same as ours.

Quoted: The enemy is attacking our Center of Gravity. Smart. We need to go after his Center of Gravity. Ironically, HIS Center of Gravity is the same as ours.

Sorry, you lost me there, could you elaborate?

Thx!

Quoted: Quoted: The enemy is attacking our Center of Gravity. Smart. We need to go after his Center of Gravity. Ironically, HIS Center of Gravity is the same as ours. Sorry, you lost me there, could you elaborate? Thx!

The foundation of our strength as a nation (Center of Gravity) is our freedom. This includes freedom of the press and its ability to shape world opinion and to influence political decisions.

The Terrorists' Center of Gravity is ALSO the press -their USE of the press and therefore, their ability to shape world opinion and to influence OUR (the West's) political decisions.

What makes us strong is also our greatest vulnerability.
Hence the "irony".

Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: The enemy is attacking our Center of Gravity. Smart. We need to go after his Center of Gravity. Ironically, HIS Center of Gravity is the same as ours. Sorry, you lost me there, could you elaborate? Thx! The foundation of our strength as a nation (Center of Gravity) is our freedom. This includes freedom of the press and its ability to shape world opinion and to influence political decisions. The Terrorists' Center of Gravity is ALSO the press -their USE of the press and therefore, their ability to shape world opinion and to influence OUR (the West's) political decisions. What makes us strong is also our greatest vulnerability. Hence the "irony".

That's in an insightful observation.  

Question:  how do we "go after" the enemy's use of the press without violating the First Amendment?

ETFix:  typo

Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: The enemy is attacking our Center of Gravity. Smart. We need to go after his Center of Gravity. Ironically, HIS Center of Gravity is the same as ours. Sorry, you lost me there, could you elaborate? Thx! The foundation of our strength as a nation (Center of Gravity) is our freedom. This includes freedom of the press and its ability to shape world opinion and to influence political decisions. The Terrorists' Center of Gravity is ALSO the press -their USE of the press and therefore, their ability to shape world opinion and to influence OUR (the West's) political decisions. What makes us strong is also our greatest vulnerability. Hence the "irony". That's in insightful observation.   Question:  how do we "go after" the enemy's use of the press without violating the First Amendment?

That's an easy one!!! Don't make them stop reporting, just shoot them all!!!!

Thanks Cincinnatus, that is quite insightful.....

I think the conservative answer is to field a new media that shows the other side, kind of what we all expected and hoped for in Fox, but (I don't know because I don't get cable or sat) aparently just got CNN lite....  However the internet is becoming our "Salvation" the other side is out there for anyone who wants to look for it, the question is becoming how do we get people to look for it instead of counting on CNN and ABC as they have always done before.....

Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: The enemy is attacking our Center of Gravity. Smart. We need to go after his Center of Gravity. Ironically, HIS Center of Gravity is the same as ours. Sorry, you lost me there, could you elaborate? Thx! The foundation of our strength as a nation (Center of Gravity) is our freedom. This includes freedom of the press and its ability to shape world opinion and to influence political decisions. The Terrorists' Center of Gravity is ALSO the press -their USE of the press and therefore, their ability to shape world opinion and to influence OUR (the West's) political decisions. What makes us strong is also our greatest vulnerability. Hence the "irony". That's in insightful observation.   Question:  how do we "go after" the enemy's use of the press without violating the First Amendment?

You simply refuse to allow it to affect your decision making process.
This is very difficult, with weak politicians.
But it works.

Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: The enemy is attacking our Center of Gravity. Smart. We need to go after his Center of Gravity. Ironically, HIS Center of Gravity is the same as ours. Sorry, you lost me there, could you elaborate? Thx! The foundation of our strength as a nation (Center of Gravity) is our freedom. This includes freedom of the press and its ability to shape world opinion and to influence political decisions. The Terrorists' Center of Gravity is ALSO the press -their USE of the press and therefore, their ability to shape world opinion and to influence OUR (the West's) political decisions. What makes us strong is also our greatest vulnerability. Hence the "irony". That's in insightful observation.   Question:  how do we "go after" the enemy's use of the press without violating the First Amendment? You simply refuse to allow it to affect your decision making process. This is very difficult, with weak politicians. But it works.

But with our two party system you can't get anything but weak politicians, any that weren't weak couldn't get elected.......

Oh well, what are you gonna do?

hell put me on the button..

ill press it...ill press it a 100 times

i could care less if a few ROPers hate me

Here's another twist on the proxy warrior.  Proxy armies can be a bit like using a Rottweiler as a police dog.  Rottweilers are fierce and aggressive but can be a bit too independant and be hard to control.  Tehran may be seeing Hezbollah as their own out-of-control Rottweiler.   Seems they are displeased that Hezbollah pissed away a 4 to 6 billion dollar investment by jumping the gun with their little adventure in kidnapping.

There may be some good that comes out of this.

Maybe this aught to be in the Israeli/Hezbollah thread, but for what it's worth..mods do what you want.

from todays's Debka  http://debka.com/article.php?aid=1201

Tehran Takes Gloomy View of the Lebanon War and Truce

August 14, 2006, 3:35 PM (GMT+02:00)

While the damage caused Israel’s military reputation tops Western assessments of the Lebanon war, DEBKAfile’s Iranian sources report an entirely different perception taking hold in ruling circles in Tehran.

After UN Security Council resolution 1701 calling for a truce was carried Friday, Aug. 11, the heads of the regime received two separate evaluations of the situation in Lebanon – one from Iran’s foreign ministry and one from its supreme national security council. Both were bleak: their compilers were concerned that Iran had been manipulatively robbed of its primary deterrent asset ahead of a probable nuclear confrontation with the United States and Israel.

While the foreign ministry report highlighted the negative aspects of the UN resolution, the council’s document complained that Hizballah squandered thousands of rockets – either by firing them into Israel or having them destroyed by the Israeli air force.

The writer of this report is furious over the waste of Iran’s most important military investment in Lebanon merely for the sake of a conflict with Israeli over two kidnapped soldiers.

It took Iran two decades to build up Hizballah’s rocket inventory.

DEBKAfile’s sources estimate that Hizballah’s adventure wiped out most of the vast sum of $4-6 bn the Iranian treasury sunk into building its military strength. The organization was meant to be strong and effective enough to provide Iran with a formidable deterrent to Israel embarking on a military operation to destroy the Islamic regime’s nuclear infrastructure.

To this end, Tehran bought the Israeli military doctrine of preferring to fight its wars on enemy soil. In the mid-1980s, Iran decided to act on this doctrine by coupling its nuclear development program with Israel’s encirclement and the weakening its deterrence strength. The Jewish state was identified at the time as the only country likely to take vigorous action to spike Iran’s nuclear aspirations.

The ayatollahs accordingly promoted Hizballah’s rise as a socio-political force in Lebanon, at the same time building up its military might and capabilities for inflicting damage of strategic dimensions to Israel’s infrastructure.

That effort was accelerated after Israeli forces withdrew from the Lebanese security zone in May 2000. A bunker network and chain of fortified positions were constructed, containing war rooms equipped with the finest western hi-tech gadgetry, including night vision gear, computers and electronics, as well as protective devices against bacteriological and chemical warfare.

This fortified network was designed for assault and defense alike.

Short- medium- and long-range rockets gave the hard edge to Hizballah’s ablity to conduct a destructive war against Israel and its civilians – when the time was right for Tehran.

Therefore, Iran’s rulers are hopping mad and deeply anxious over news of the huge damage sustained by Hizballah’s rocket inventory, which was proudly touted before the war as numbering 13,000 pieces.

Hizballah fighters, they are informed, managed to fire only a small number of Khaibar-1 rockets, most of which hit Haifa and Afula, while nearly 100 were destroyed or disabled by Israeli air strikes.

The long-range Zelzal-1 and Zelzal-2, designed for hitting Tel Aviv and the nuclear reactor at Dimona have been degraded even more. Iran sent over to Lebanon 50 of those missiles. The keys to the Zelzal stores stayed in the hands of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards officers who were in command of Hizballah. Nasrallah and his officers had no access to these stores.

But Tehran has learned that Israel was able to destroy most of the 22 Zelzal launchers provided.

That is not the end of the catalogue of misfortunes for the Islamic rulers of Iran.

1. The UN Security Council embodied in resolution 1701 a chapter requiring Hizballah to disarm – in the face of a stern warning issued by supreme ruler Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in person in the early days of the war. Revolutionary Guards commanders went so far as to boast: “No one alive is capable of disarming Hizballah.”

The disarming of Hizballah would therefore be a bad knock to the supreme ruler’s authority and prestige as well as a disastrous blow for the deterrent force so painstakingly and expensively fashioned as a second front line to protect the Islamic republic from a safe distance.

2. Hizballah’s ejection from South Lebanon, if accomplished in the aftermath of the ceasefire, would moreover deprive Tehran of the sword hanging over Israel’s head of instantaneous attack.

For the sake of partial damage control, Tehran handed Nasrallah a set of new instructions Sunday, Aug. 13:

First, to find a way of evading the ceasefire and keeping up war operations against Israeli forces.

Second, to reject the proposal to disarm before the Lebanese government meets on this Monday afternoon. In fact, that meeting was called off after Hassan Nasrallah sent a message to the Lebanese ministers flatly refusing to have Hizballah give up its weapons in the south. He also turned down a compromise proposal handed him later, whereby the Lebanese army’s first mission after deploying in the south would be to help Hizballah evacuate its fighters with their arms to positions north of the Litani River.

The strategy evolving in Tehran since the ceasefire went into effect Monday morning requires Hizballah to employ a range of stratagems – not only to prevent the truce from stabilizing but to stop the Lebanese army from deploying n the south and, above all, the entry of an effective international force.

Furthermore, Hizballah is instructed to stretch the military crisis into the next three of four months, synchronously with the timetable for a UN Security Council sanctions-wielding session on Iran.

According to exclusive reports reaching DEBKAfile’s sources, the Iranian government believes that Israel and the United States are preparing a military operation for the coming October and November to strike Iran’s nuclear installations. It is therefore vital to keep the two armies fully occupied with other pursuits.

Iranian leaders’ conviction that the Lebanon war was staged to bamboozle them rests on certain perceptions:

As seen from Tehran, Israel looked as though it was carrying out a warming-up exercise in preparation for its main action against Iran’s nuclear program. The Israeli army was able to explore, discover and correct its weak points, understand what was lacking and apply the necessary remedial measures. They therefore expect the IDF to emerge from the war having produced novel methods of warfare.

They also have no doubt that the United States will replenish Israel’s war chest with a substantial aid program of new and improved weaponry.

From the Iranian viewpoint, Israel succeeded in seriously degrading Hizballah’s capabilities. It was also able to throw the Lebanese Shiite militia to the wolves; the West is now in a position to force Nasrallah and his men to quit southern Lebanon and disarm. The West shut its eyes when he flouted the Resolution 1559 order for the disarmament of all Lebanese militias. But that game is over. The Americans will use Resolution 1701 as an effect weapon to squeeze Iran, denied of its second-front deterrence, on its nuclear program.

Tehran hopes to pre-empt the American move by torpedoing the Lebanon ceasefire and preventing the termination of hostilities at all costs.

I would launch a massive air attack on Iran targeting their military aircraft and air defenses only. I would not touch any government targets, infrastructure or communications nodes. I would not target the land army with the exception of air defenses.

Once the air defenses were gone I would keep American aircraft flying in Iranian skies 24 hours a day. Nice and low so that the whole population saw them.

Then I would wait for the next attack by a Muslim anywhere in the world. After which I would pick a random small city in Iran and carpet bomb it. I (as President, let's say) would get on TV and make an address to the Iranians asking them why their government and military is forcing us to bomb them. I would tell the Iranians that as long as their government and military supports jihad against us, that we will be forced to retaliate.

Next jihadist event would result in the carpet bombing of two Iranian cities and one random Syrian town, after seizing control of Syrian skies. Still no targeting of leadership or military other than air defences. No targeting of infrastructure, either. Once again, go on TV and ask the Iranian and Syrian people why their government and military are making us do this. Keep our warplanes nice and visible 24/7 in the skies of Syria and Iran.

Next jihadist event, 3 random Iranian cities and 2 random Syrian cities. Repeat as necessary.

Quoted: Very eloquent representation of my and many others on this board's feelings. It's hard to say it without geting banned I advocated nuking a city or two over there long time ago. Give them a list of cities starting with mecca. Next terrorist attack, nuke mecca and so on and so on....

You can't possibly think that nuking their most revered religious site would be beneficial?......I think that move would be all it takes to motivate EVERY SINGLE MUSLIM IN THE WORLD to take up arms against America.....

Great post!

This isn't something new.  This dates back to Vietnam, Korea, and even the Malaya insurrection.

EDIT: spelling.

Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Very eloquent representation of my and many others on this board's feelings. It's hard to say it without geting banned I advocated nuking a city or two over there long time ago. Give them a list of cities starting with mecca. Next terrorist attack, nuke mecca and so on and so on.... You can't possibly think that nuking their most revered religious site would be beneficial?......I think that move would be all it takes to motivate EVERY SINGLE MUSLIM IN THE WORLD to take up arms against America..... But it removes the initiative from them to us.  I would gladly take on the entire muslim world in a blind suicidal fury and finish it rather than allow them to dictate the time and place of every fight. Note, I do not advocate the nuking of mecca on both moral and strategic grounds, but it does have something to say for it.

Point taken.......I get sick of their guerilla style of fighting .....the hit and run terrorist shit............let's see an armed group of ROPers attack a building or something in the USA, give us a firefight in the streets of NYC or LA, shit, give us a firefight in the streets of Cleveland.....and Americans will wake up......... The "fight them over there..." theory doesn't bring it home to enough Americans for them to care...it's a lot easier to be apathetic when the death and carnage is half a world away.............bring it home, and let us show them how we do it on our home field.....

Quoted: Quoted: Oh well, what are you gonna do? If we could answer that in two pages, we'd be generals. Really, we have to wait till they hit us so hard, that the freedom of action required to go after all the state sponsors is there. Sorry folks, but for most americans 9-11 wasn't enough. I question if anything other than a personal threat is enough.  We could lose NYC and most of the people in this country would try to surrender by looking for "why do they hate us?" they do.  Deal with it as quickly as possible. When Hizb'allah attacks Israel, Israel should have taken out Syria's entire government and infratstructure.   You don't defeat the guerrilla by attacking frontally. You either subvert their cause (impossible in this case, as Islam does call for what we are victims of) or remove their support.   Without Iranian and syrian support, Hizb'allah would have accomplished nothing. No people like the idea of thinking their culture (and, hence themselves) are somehow sub-standard.  Yet the fact is simply that Western Culture and Civilization is completely superior in any quantifiable or qualifiable measurement to anything that the Muslim world has to offer.  Nothing highlights that fact more than Israel. So many muslims have simply defined cultural supiority by bravery and a willingness to die for a cause.   How do remove this cultural inferiority complex?  We can either integrate them into our successful society (as Bush is trying to do), or we can crush them so completely that they realize an alliance with a greater power is better than isolation and a degradation of their standard of living.  As long as they have oil money and we won't remove the state sponsers of terrorism that are controlling that money, this continues indefinately. I personally don't feel that the first option is viable (as Iraq is showing).  The second option isn't feasible due to lack of will.  Either or resolve stiffens, or we must deal with this as a permanent war footing until we have a revolutionary new energy source or the ME runs out of oil. There you go folks.

+1

Unfortunately for US...AS WELL AS M.E.ISLAMIC ARABS....I don't think it'll happen before Iran gets the ability to threaten Israel with more than 122mm rockets and whatever passes for a conventionally armed FROG or SCUD in Iran.

At the rate the west is going I expect we'll be Bystanders and rubber-neckers to Israels reaction to a threat that's going to encompass THEM several years before it gets Europe's (And eventually the U.S.') attention.

Long but a good read.

bump

Great Read.

I have my doubts whether we will wake up in time...

let's see an armed group of ROPers attack a building or something in the USA, give us a firefight in the streets of NYC ....and Americans will wake up.........

Yawn...and then we'll go right back to sleep.  Most folks don't remember the first attack on the WTC in 1993.  Collectively,  we just kinda laughed it off as the "Gang that couldn't shoot straight."  

The Marines say something like "Never underestimate your enemy".  As a nation we forget that maxim.

We've got a very short attention span but the islamic factions have grievances that go back to 700 AD! Bring back the lost glories of Andalusia!   It's crazy, we didn't even exist but the US is blamed for the Crusades!  How insane is that?

The real question is how do you deal with an insane enemy?  Maybe crazy like a fox, but still crazy...where'd the 72 virgins idea come from??  What do *female* suicide bombers get?

How do you craft a treaty with folks who believe it's ok to lie to an infidel?  How are the negotiations with Iran going?   (lies, lies and more lies.....)

I do not want to live under Sharia law.  This is the 21st century.  I don't wish to return to the 8th century.

Great read, I too think we will not be able to wake up and smell the coffee.
 First we will lose what's left our country and culture to Mexico, then Islam will come and destroy us at our weakest.

War is just that, WAR, it is not a paint ball game, it is not a game of hide and seek, but a game where the loser dies, and the winner gets the spoils.

If you find yourself in a fair fight, cheat and live.

Quoted: Quoted: This isn't something new.  This dates back to Vietnam, Korea, and even the Malaya insurrection. EDIT: spelling. So, as a lesson to the student, why did we: Fail in Vietnam

Lack of will power.  The senior political (and even military) leadership lacked the intestinal fortitude to stand up to popular opinion and fight a war like a war is fought.  Instead, they offered every advanatge to the enemy, made US Servicemen fight with both hnads tied behind their backs, and allowed--for the greater duration of the war--the enemy free use of its sanctuaries in Cambodia, Laos, and to some extent, North Vietnam.

Furthermore, we as a nation have become risk averse.  Endeavours like MAC-V-SOG would never be undertaken today due to the impending political fall out that would result.  OBL sits content in Pakistan, mocking the "paper tiger", just as the Iranians did years before when they captured the American embassy with no recompense from the Carter administration.

In short, it all comes down to mindset; our leadership just didn't have it, and they don't have it today either.

"History teaches that when you become indifferent and lose the will to fight, someone who has the will to fight will take over".

Arthur "Bull" Simons
COL, U.S. Army

The side with the superior mindset wins.

EDIT: spelling.