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Posted: 9/21/2004 4:29:21 AM EDT
Why anybody would use his shit polls is beyond me... as soon as some other poll numbers come in for these states expect to see the map shift back.
 Kerry 239 Bush 256 |
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Posted: 9/21/2004 4:36:32 AM EDT
[#1]
Great FL back in play....
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Posted: 9/21/2004 4:37:51 AM EDT
[#2]
Why does anyone care about this shit? Those polls don't mean a damn thing.
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Posted: 9/21/2004 4:46:17 AM EDT
[#3]
Well, based on the unscientific Bigfeet poll, there are a whole lot more bumperstickers for Bush than Kerry here. Florida loves Bush!! Bigfeet |
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Posted: 9/21/2004 4:48:44 AM EDT
[#4]
thanks Hiram. I wish you had posted (and explained the sudden shift) about 2 hrs ago. I didn't have time to read any detail because my daughter was running late for school...I nearly spewed my coffee when I looked at this.
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Posted: 9/21/2004 4:56:21 AM EDT
[#5]
DU is gushing about what a good, scientific pollster Zogby is.
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Posted: 9/21/2004 5:01:30 AM EDT
[#6]
"DU is gushing about what a good, scientific pollster Zogby is." Do you have any evidence that Zogby is not more accurate? I've heard good things about them from BOTH parties. As a matter of fact, I have participated in many of their polls. I tend to believe a poll that gives me a realistic view, rather than an optimistic one.
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Posted: 9/21/2004 5:17:23 AM EDT
[#7]
Actually, today's result isn't a bad one at all - Bush not only carries most of the states he did in 2000, he pads his lead in several of them and adds NJ (15 votes). Meanwhile several solid Democrat states from 2000 are going wobbly in this snapshot.
With 6 weeks to the election, this isn't a bad place to be at all. |
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Posted: 9/21/2004 5:35:30 AM EDT
[#8]
slate.msn.com/id/76221
This is from Slate.com, in 2000 Republicans had some faith in Zogby... then he put himself up for sale to the highest bidder. Case in point NY's 2002 Governor's race where Golisano hired Zogby to poll for him and Zogby crowed Golisano would come in 2nd... Golisano was a VERY distant 3rd. forum.johnkerry.com/lofiversion/index.php/t63669.html Maybe 1/2 of NYC's whackos believe that the US knew in advance of 9-11... but I'm in NY and I can tell you no fucking way in the rest of the state. www.chriscmooney.com/PDF/Zogby.pdf Zogby routinely violated industry ethics as to how polls are conducted and making proper disclosures. www.littletinylies.com/ Zogby's brother is a well known Bush basher in the Arab press www.littlegreenfootballs.com/weblog/?entry=9945_The_Zogby_Proof More Zogby pro-Arab... anti-Bushism There is a reason that the republican party in NY refuses to work with Zogby any longer, we use to pay him millions for polling. He is unreliable, unethical, biased and for sale. |
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Posted: 9/21/2004 5:46:51 AM EDT
[#9]
They should just do away with the Electoral College, altogether.
Majority wins.... period. |
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Posted: 9/21/2004 5:54:09 AM EDT
[#10]
And when we get a gun grabbing president every time because election fraud in major cities will carry the day? Our founding fathers were pretty wise folk... they ensured that rural states would always have a voice... even spartan Alaska gets three votes. |
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Posted: 9/21/2004 6:22:13 AM EDT
[#11]
Yea...right!  You need to go back to HS and take another civics/ U. S. Government class. There is a perfect and logical reason for the Electoral College. You may not like the results of the electoral process...but it IS fair for the entire United States. FYI, it prevents a few tiny, but heavily populated states and cities, such as those "Blue" areas on the map, from perpetually dominating our elections...and in the current climate, from electing socialist liberals to the presidency. This process permits the smaller, less populous states to have a say in the election. Without it, our presidents would be decided by the mob from LA, NYC, Detroit, Boston, SFO, Newark, Chicago and other like venues. How would YOU like the folks in those large metro areas to dictate who our president would be...every damn time? All the rest of us might as well stay home if that were to happen. No way that is changing. It would disenfranchise millions of voters...and destroy our country. |
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Posted: 9/21/2004 6:22:22 AM EDT
[#12]
No, because we are a Republic, not a Democracy. That way the country is run by it's general mood across the board, and not by Chicago, NY, and LA. But hey, it's worked well for so long, let's scrap the whole system the founding fathers came up with! |
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Posted: 9/21/2004 6:36:20 AM EDT
[#13]
Hmmm.
Ranking of the States: State & Local Government Public Welfare Expenditures per Capita 2001-2002. 
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Posted: 9/21/2004 6:38:45 AM EDT
[#14]
I ain't worried.....
45 states, and maybe California. SGatr15 |
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Posted: 9/21/2004 6:38:51 AM EDT
[#15]
While we are ahead, it's a warm -n- fuzzy 
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Posted: 9/21/2004 6:42:28 AM EDT
[#16]
Okay, I was wrong earlier about another newbie's posts. THIS is the dumbist post of the day.  SGtar15 |
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Posted: 9/21/2004 6:47:58 AM EDT
[#17]
Looking at the two maps above, what happened to New Mexico that is has become an outpost of New England?
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Posted: 9/21/2004 6:48:54 AM EDT
[#18]
People in the rural states can't get to the polls? 100 yrs ago, ok. Now?
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Posted: 9/21/2004 6:52:17 AM EDT
[#19]
Don't you have some dolls to play with? |
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Posted: 9/21/2004 6:52:44 AM EDT
[#20]
Mach, with all due respect, you're a moron.
The electoral college designed to protect the RESIDENTS of those states. To give them a say, so that the most populated states (i.e., California, NY, FL, etc) aren't effectively deciding the election every year -- which is what would happen without the electoral college. |
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Posted: 9/21/2004 6:53:31 AM EDT
[#21]
The national polls don't mean shit because its not a popular election... still... go to www.realclearpolitics.com and you will see Bush leading in EVERY significant national poll. What matters are state polls. Sorry libertarian, I make my living as a political and public relations consultant and operative. I run elections, conduct fundraising, develop ads and make media buys, write speeches, coordinate with pollsters. I'm by no means the final word on these issues, but I approach it from a pretty healthy background. Go back to the threads from the 2000 election if they are still in the archives... called that one pretty good. 2002 NY Governor's race? Nailed that one. 2002 mid-terms... slam dunked those. Last INTERNAL numbers I saw showed a 9% Bush lead nationally. I think its probably 7-8%. Polls do mean something. They tell you how messages are resonating, what issues need to be hit... which avoided. They tell you your guy's strengths and the other guy's weaknesses. Bottom line, Bush's people read the tea leaves better and are resonating with the electorate. The fact that there isn't a major poll out there showing Kerry up is incredibly telling. Given Zogby's anti-Bush bias... the best he can do is throw Florida and Arkansas into the undecided column. I don't believe that for a second. We are in a commanding position and the numbers paint that clearly. |
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Posted: 9/21/2004 6:55:23 AM EDT
[#22]
Errr...They kinda do. |
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Posted: 9/21/2004 6:57:19 AM EDT
[#23]
I dunno...maybe it's all the hippie freaks in Taos and Santa Fe....  |
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Posted: 9/21/2004 6:58:54 AM EDT
[#24]
Not really...that's why Bush is President...  |
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Posted: 9/21/2004 6:59:28 AM EDT
[#25]
Has nothing to do with it. Just like the organization of the House and Senate small states get a disperportionate say to prevent them from being bowled over by a more populated state. You really need to review highschool civics if you are even in high school yet. We are NOT a democracy, never have been, never should be. Democracy sucks for free men. Planerench out. |
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Posted: 9/21/2004 6:59:44 AM EDT
[#26]
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Posted: 9/21/2004 7:01:37 AM EDT
[#27]
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Posted: 9/21/2004 7:28:51 AM EDT
[#28]
Look again at he Welfare map post on page one and realize that NM is in the top 15 states for handouts. The largest group of these handout recipients is the Native American population and in NM (unlike AZ, where the NA are still a minority) the Native American population is a force to be reckoned with politically. With the guidelines allowing Native Americaness to be claimed with a proved 1/16th lineage. The second largest handout recipient group are the Hispanics that do not want to work very hard. These are multi-generational American citizens, not recent immigres from Mexico, and many prove the stereotype. I am not bashing, but as a business owner here, I am qualified to report on the relative lack of a 'normal' work ethic in New Mexico. Now, with a HUGE majority of people expecting handouts because they got them before and because many of their ancestors did too (remember that the Spanish conquerors and the foloow-up priests did not toil, but made their 'subjects' do the work), there is not a major voice voting for fiscal responsibility. It's no longer the Land of Enchantment, but the Land of Entitlement. On a positive note, the views are killer....but the single wides (with additions) kinda junk it up. |
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Posted: 9/21/2004 7:56:20 AM EDT
[#29]
Zogby must take into account all the dead people voting Democrat.
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Posted: 9/21/2004 7:56:45 AM EDT
[#30]
You are correct about the House, but each state only has 2 Sinators. It's that way for a reason. We are not a Democracy, but a Republic. IN a democracy we would suffer the "Tyrany of the majority". Look it up, it's quite important. |
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Posted: 9/21/2004 8:33:17 AM EDT
[#31]
Which 5 states are you thinking he won't win? Illinios, New York... ? |
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Posted: 9/21/2004 8:37:42 AM EDT
[#32]
Why I don't like the Electoral College....
-It makes it possible to elect a president who doesn't get a popular majority. (No, I didn't vote for Gore in 2000.) -It creates a risk that an elector may not vote according to the will of the voters who elected him. (Maybe they don't trust the people- I guess we might elect a new Hitler?) Sure...This country is armed to the teeth. I say the American people have the power to overthrow any radical Gov't, or President. - It makes it very difficult for support for a third-party candidate to get recognized thus keeping out new ideas. ( My biggest peave....We need another choice! The two party system is a collective joke. |
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Posted: 9/21/2004 8:45:58 AM EDT
[#33]
First off.. the electoral college explicity allows for somebody to win even if they don't have the popular vote. That was the fucking intent! Second, faithless electors can be dealt with by state laws that dorce electors to vote for whomever wins the state. You clearly don't have a damn clue what you are talking about.
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Posted: 9/21/2004 8:59:41 AM EDT
[#34]
I think you didn't read it correctly. Read out loud if it helps you. |
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Posted: 9/21/2004 9:17:48 AM EDT
[#35]
Exactly, you're arguing that the electoral college allows something to happen that the founding fathers explicitly allowed room to happen... They knew full well that if not for the electoral college, the citizens of cities such as Boston, NYC, Philadelphia and a few other large urban areas could decide the election rather than a braoder snapshot. The idea was to force politicians to address the needs of ALL citizens, not just those clustered in one area.
Go back to school, you clearly don't understand the principles upon which this fine nation was built. |
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Posted: 9/21/2004 9:22:18 AM EDT
[#36]
Methinks it's time for an old platitude:
Edit for board code. 
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Posted: 9/21/2004 9:24:00 AM EDT
[#37]
Your forgot the rest: "Liberty is a well armed lamb contesting the vote."
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Posted: 9/21/2004 5:03:52 PM EDT
[#38]
True. demographics to include voter registration rolls, union membership, local economy, and the 2000 elections are all better indicastors than any polling data.  This one is weighted too heavy for polling too, but its more accurate than most. |
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Posted: 9/21/2004 5:09:46 PM EDT
[#39]
1. Illegal immigration 2. Native American welfare mindset 3. Californian migrants |
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Posted: 9/21/2004 5:10:51 PM EDT
[#40]
 |
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Posted: 9/21/2004 5:34:50 PM EDT
[#41]
The original Electoral College map is horsepuckey.
Tennessee "leaning" Bush? Last poll we had here had Bush over Kerry by 16 points. |
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Posted: 9/21/2004 5:39:54 PM EDT
[#42]
Are'nt the number of electoral votes that states have based on population? Or are they fixed? If that is true, then what's the difference. PRK will continue to grow faster then say, Idaho. |
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Posted: 9/21/2004 5:52:51 PM EDT
[#43]
I thought I may have to take the day after election day off work.(In 2000, I went to bed at 3:30am, after Bush was declared, only to wake up to a question mark).
Bush and Kerry are currently TIED 48-48 in NEW JERSEY! (forget which poll) On Nov 2nd, If New Jeresy goes red early, THB goes to bed early.
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Posted: 9/21/2004 5:57:08 PM EDT
[#44]
If not for the electoral college, blue would win. I don't want the inner city idiots winning by default simply because they procreate.
tony 
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Posted: 9/21/2004 6:08:36 PM EDT
[#45]
Electoral votes... one for each member of Congress... so each state has a minimum of three.
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Posted: 9/21/2004 7:03:55 PM EDT
[#46]
Something to keep in mind is that a candidate doesn't get any more votes in the electoral college if he wins a state by more than 50%. In other words, if Kerry wins California with 51% of the popular vote in that state, he gets 55 electoral votes. If he wins with 80% of the popular vote in that state, he still gets only 55 electoral votes. Doing away with the electoral college, would encourage politicians to try to develop super-majority support in the most populous states, while ignoring the rest of the country. One of the many nightmare scenarios that could develop with this would be politicians lowering or even eliminating federal taxes in populous states to curry favor, while making up the difference in revenue by raising tax rates in the now "throwaway" rural states. Sounds like a surefire way of sparking civil war to me. The older I get, the more respect I have for the intelligence and foresight of our founding fathers. |
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Posted: 9/21/2004 7:16:50 PM EDT
[#47]
That's gotta be the dumbest thing I've read here. What you are asking for is liberals to win every time. City dwellers outnumber country folk in sheer numbers. They are also more likely to have disposeable time to go vote and campaign and stuff like that. What you are talking about is pure democracy, which we are NOT. I can't remember who said it but it's true; Democracy is three wolves and a sheep voting on what to have for dinner. Electoral college protects the rights of rural people like US (you can live on manhattan avenue and be "rural people". you know who you are. If you are on this site you likely qualify) and let liberal city folks screw you out of every God given right you can think of. we HAVE to, repeat, HAVE to have the electoral college. I'm sure some DUMBASS like my senator Orrin "I got a killer tie at the thrift store" Hatch will try and make it a straight up majority vote but you might as well throw all your guns in a smelter and kick yourself in the balls, cause if you don't, someone else will CBR. (trust me, I took Poly Sci)
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Posted: 9/21/2004 7:20:54 PM EDT
[#48]
Fuck That!!! This is not a mob rules country. |
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Posted: 9/21/2004 7:23:31 PM EDT
[#49]
I have a question though, isn't the amount of electoral votes based on the population in the state? How do large states dominate any less now than they would if we just had a straight popular vote? |
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Posted: 9/21/2004 7:41:31 PM EDT
[#50]
Actually a few states apportion electors by percentage of vote received.
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