Quoted:
96 pages? I didn't read 1 word but I can say by the looks of it, Shit is bad

Quoted:


I don't see it happening.


See, they'll SPEND on the shimmer of storm clouds on the horizon - because it's easy.  It's easy to convince people that "Hey, we're doing something here!   We're going to...  er...  save or create jobs!"


However when it comes down to cutting 0.02% of the $3.2 trillion federal budget, we have gridlock, protests, and waiting until the the precipice of potential shut-down...  and then we'll compromise by cutting 0.001% of that same budget - or nothing at all!

I agree with all of the calls here for cutting, scaling back and making hard decisions - we all do.  That's partially why we're here.    But just like in Wisconsin, as soon as cuts are made, the trouble makers come out from under the cupboards.  Unfortunately, at the Federal level, "We" don't have the majority to shove stuff through like the Democrats did before, and like the Wisconsin legislature does now.

So, when we have a senate majority leader opining about a Cowboy Poetry festival as reasons to not make these "draconian" cuts (which less than 1% of our total budget)...   I don't see anything changing in the manner necessary; until shit hits the wall, that is.

Tax and Spend is a way of life for these people, and they are not going to let go easily.   I am also not so sure that we're going to have such a wide-spread routing of Congress in 2012, nor am I convinced that Barry is going to get booted once the propaganda machines boot up.    Anyway, I personally expect more of the same (with a few token cuts thrown in - like $2 billion in COLA increases) until the Machine loses a cog and shit starts veering sideways; and even then it will be the most vital services first to put pressure on taxpayers to accept even more wealth transfer (in these trying economic times).  

Quoted:
OK, all of us tend to agree spending cuts are needed.  Where do you cut?

Tyler Durden's picture
Initial Claims Jump To 397K On Expectations Of 376K, Prior Revised From 368K To 371K

And so the economic "improvement" data takes another big step back after the rumored improvement in claims reverts, following the traditional negative prior revision to 371K, coming at 397K on expectations of 376K. Non-seasonal claims surge by 52K higher from 354K to 406K. Continuing claims declined from an upward revised 3791K to 3771K, missing expectations of 3750K. And according to a BLS official this time the factor to blame is "school holidays." It appears there was no snow last week. Disturbingly, those on EUCs and Extended Benefits surged by 200K.

Quoted:
almost a -200 point open...   so it should sneak up another 100+ points and finish... say...  -70 to -90 by close.  

Quoted:
The weather has cleared, so jobless claims go up.   This should be revised upward to 399,999 next week no doubt.




http://www.zerohedge.com/

"Markets have been hoping that China would lead the recovery, but when you put this (U.S.) data with slower growth out of China, the idea that everything looks normal is going away."

Quoted:



School holidays?  Were the unemployment offices even open on presidents day?  If they had not revised upward - that would have been unexpected.

Quoted:
BTW, I see a big fight for Dow 12k and the 50 DMA for the S&P.  Both are major psychological levels.  If they fall today, look for a fight to regain them soon.

by CPL
on Thu, 03/10/2011 - 09:43
#1036388

Anyone else noticing that the baords are all screwed up right now?


by fuu
on Thu, 03/10/2011 - 09:45
#1036393

yes.

by CPL
on Thu, 03/10/2011 - 09:45
#1036397

I think they just halted the markets.  Can't pull any quotes now.


by fuu
on Thu, 03/10/2011 - 10:06
#1036455

I think it was just a data feed error/obfuscation.


by Catullus
on Thu, 03/10/2011 - 09:46
#1036395

My orders won't fill. Totally fucking liquid.  


by CPL
on Thu, 03/10/2011 - 09:46
#1036402

Same here.  TD, Think or Swim and eTrade are locked.


by gmrpeabody
on Thu, 03/10/2011 - 09:50
#1036413

My order went thru ok on a small account in Fidelity.


by Josh Randall
on Thu, 03/10/2011 - 10:07
#1036464

Is it snowing in your office ? Is today a school holiday ?


by malikai
on Thu, 03/10/2011 - 09:45
#1036398

Everything's crazy right now. Are nukes flying?

by CPL
on Thu, 03/10/2011 - 09:49
#1036409

Something is going on.  Can't find anything though.  network problems again between point A and B maybe

TNA would have been a good play today with the big drop on open though.  Oh well.


by Birddog
on Thu, 03/10/2011 - 09:46
#1036400

my charts seemed to pause a bit...thought it was my connection


by CPL
on Thu, 03/10/2011 - 09:57
#1036434

Weird, even Forex isn't updating.  Usually the morning open and the USD/CDN is jumping around like a six year old after drinking a redbull.

It's like everything is out of sync...if that makes sense.

The Sword Hanging Over the Housing Market

That is how much bankrupt federal agencies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are taking down in loan guarantees to the residential housing market.

Created in the wake of the Great Depression (the last one, not this one), these agencies were created to provide subsidies to the homeowners to revive a moribund market. These agencies entered prime time by accepting the securitization of these loans in 1968.

They worked in quite obscurity in Washington for decades, quietly fueling successive postwar real estate bubbles. Much of their debt was sold to foreign investors looking to pick up a small premium over Treasuries.

That was until they went one bubble too far, funding the explosion of borrowing that took place during the early part of the 2000’s. In 2004, a deregulation move resulting in the dropping of rules against using government guarantees to finance predatory, high cost lending to subprime borrowers.

It was all over but the crying. Once the market broke, default rates skyrocketed, and it suddenly became abundantly clear that these agencies had been grotesquely underpricing risk for decades. Borrowers starting making claims on their guaranties en masse, wiping out their entire capital. In 2008, the two agencies entered a conservatorship administered by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), a de facto bankruptcy.

These lenders have been operating in limbo ever since. Like the other sacred cows of entitlements and defense spending, federal home financing is an issue our leaders would rather keep their heads in the sand over. It is clear they need to be recapitalized. But the chance of this congress, fueled by populist, libertarian fantasies, providing another $100 billion in bail out money for a federal agency is zero. That leaves the possibility that they will be eventually be phased out, leaving the private sector to take up the slack.

What will a fully privatized home loan market look like? Try a lot more expensive. That is where you find the jumbo market, which is already fully privatized, as there was never a government mandate to finance the homes of millionaires.
If you have a FICO score over 750, move all of your assets to you lender, including your IRA, 401k, 529 plan, and all of your securities business, you might get a jumbo loan for a 100 basis point premium over a convention FHA loan under $729,750. If you don’t jump through all these hoops and refuse to offer your first born child up as collateral, expect to pay a premium of up to 250 basis points, or 7.5% at today’s rates. This is why abandoned McMansions have soared across the land like a great blight, and can be rented for 30% of the cash flow demanded by an outright purchase.

What does this mean for residential real estate prices? I’ll attempt some quick, back of the envelop calculations here. Raise the cost of financing by 40%, and you can knock 40% off the value of your property. That is off of today’s prices, which are already down 40%-60% from the 2007 peak, depending on your neighborhood.

This will inevitably lead to a secondary banking crisis and another stock market crash. If you are wondering about those Armageddon type forecasts that have the Dow plunging down to 3,000, this is the intellectual foundation behind them. That is when we find out how much freedom really costs.

Quoted:


Part of the problem - in terms of the whole China thing - is that it is so difficult to predict if there are bubbles in China that might potentially burst and give them real trouble.  Their housing market, for instance, has been on fire as a growing middle class is spending money like there's no tomorrow.  But, since it's such an unusual situation, with an emerging new middle class, it's hard to predict which way it will go.  So while it might LOOK like a bubble, there might be so many people pushing INTO the new middle class that it can be sustained for decades.  Or, it might crash tomorrow.  

I think another thing that people might not take as much into account is that while high oil prices may hurt the U.S., they probably hurt China much more.  While the U.S. uses a ton of oil, it uses it more efficiently than China.  So in terms of economic impact, spikes in oil prices are potentially far worse news for China than for the U.S.

I remember some of my friends who work in China telling me back in 2009 that the "recession" was just a minor blip, and China was fine - and I think some people are starting to re-evaluate and question that.  Plus, it's ALWAYS hard to tell if numbers out of China are fudged or not.  

So all that just adds more "noise" to the whole picture.

Not surprisingly, the key issue that Pal continues to focus on is the global debt-to-GDP ratio which is, and will likely always be, in excess of 300% until either we see global defaults or inflate our way out of it. His summary on the issue of unsustainable sovereign issuance: "Something has to give or bankruptcy will ensue as the markets dictate both the private sector's and the public sector's ability to borrow. The first part of this equation came to pass in 2008 as bank lending to the private sector shut down. No amount of regulation, political shenanigans or QE has fixed this in any way. Bank have got no money so they are not going to lend. End of story."

"All this means is that the economy becomes ever more reliant on low interest rates for it to function. One day the markets will not allow the Fed to run this policy and rates will rise and the system will be brought to its knees. The outcome will happen regardless of whether they try to inflate their way out of debt and rates rise, or they increase the debt burden and sovereign risk is priced in via rate rises. With a continuation of the current economic policies, the end result of a default is inevitable. It's not rocket science."

Quoted:
Saudi police fire on protesters...............game on bitches

Quoted:
the bright side is that oil is down to $101.xx on the day so far.


But those support levels were breached (barely), so we'll see what happens.   Looks like today's move has some momentum behind it - meaning, it hasn't shot up 80 points on no-news yet.

Quoted:
Anyone want some worthless paper?

BofA Segregates Almost Half of its Mortgages Into ‘Bad Bank’

Laughlin’s portfolio will include loans that are currently 60 or more days delinquent as well as riskier types of loans the bank no longer originates, such as subprime, Alt-A, interest- only and option adjustable-rate mortgages, he said. He said the portfolios will be completely split by March 31 and that his will be liquidated over time. Of the 13.9 million loans Bank of America services, about 3.5 million are held by the company on its balance sheet. The rest are owned by other investors.

This change is of an order of magnitude so great that by the time this period passes (we are still very early in the process) virtually nothing about the way we live our lives and view the world will be the same.  This will be the case everywhere, but nowhere will the impact be as great as in the United States.  The reason is quite simple.  What we are witnessing in the Middle East is the dismantling of the American Empire, the existence of which is actually not even known to the majority of Americans as a result of highly effective media and cultural propaganda.

The worst part about the crisis in 2008 was the reaction to it.  We promoted and bailed out the “leaders” in all spheres of life, not least of which were money managers.  While I may offend many people on this list with what I am about to say, it needs to be said.  Many of the “investors” managing a significant amount of American capital right now have absolutely no business doing so.  They had no idea what they were doing into 2008 and they have less of an idea what they are doing now.

This is not 2008, it is much, much worse and far more dangerous.  This will not simply be the collapse of the banking system (although I fully expect that), rather it will be the collapse of the central banking system.  This will not be the temporary collapse of some phony paper wealth, it will be the permanent destruction of real wealth and the end of how the economy functions today which we can simply call “the system.”

Quoted:
Mike Krieger On Why 2011 Is Not 2008 - Why It Is Much Worse - And On Dow-Gold Parity







Gotta keep the doom and gloom at a high level.

Quoted:

I remember some of my friends who work in China telling me back in 2009 that the "recession" was just a minor blip, and China was fine - and I think some people are starting to re-evaluate and question that.  Plus, it's ALWAYS hard to tell if numbers out of China are fudged or not.  

So all that just adds more "noise" to the whole picture.

And an amusing discrepancy: according to the US, the January trade deficit with China was $23.3 billion. According to China, the trade surplus with the US in January was $13.6. Just 100% off between two departments of truth.

(Reuters) - U.S. drivers will pay another 10 cents a gallon for gasoline before the latest jump in wholesale costs is fully passed on at the pump, and yearly motor fuel costs will rise 28 percent from last year, the Energy Department said on Wednesday.

The average U.S. household will spend about $700 more for gasoline in 2011 than it spent last year, bringing total motor fuel expenses up 28 percent to $3,235, based on an annual pump price of $3.61 a gallon, the department's Energy Information Administration said.

Quoted:

Is it a POMO day?  If it is, we could be green by the close.

Quoted:

Closed down 228.  I guess the PPT didn't figure on the Saudi cops getting froggy today.

Quoted:
Yet?

Quoted:


http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/09/us-usa-gasoline-price-idUSTRE7286IO20110309

Quoted:


Already $3.65 here, it jumped .16 cents today.

Quoted:


Nope, not yet.

Quoted:
I think I found out one way the FED will get some of  the toxic mess they bought off their books and onto the taxpayer's books:

AIG Goes For Re-Broke, Offers To Repurchase Toxic Subprime Portfolio From Fed For $15.7 Billion

But, wait, you ask?!?!?!!?  Isn't the FED the majority owner of AIG??????  Why, yes, they are.

The True Cause Of The 2008 Market Crash Looks Like Its About To Rear Its Ugly Head Again, With A Vengeance
Reggie Middleton's picture
Submitted by Reggie Middleton on 03/11/2011 13:16 -0500

As I sit back and contemplate the content and delivery style that would be best suited for my upcoming keynote speech at the ING Real Estate Valuation Conference in Amsterdam (this is my first presentation to a large group where English is not the primary language), I am bombarded with news bits and bytes that confirm what I've been modeling, warning, fearing and preparing for - for nearly 2 years. That is almost 23 months to the date. What is it, you ask? It is the market's return to the adherence of fundamentals and global macro forces versus following the whims of the concerted efforts of central banks around the world to openly manipulate real asset, equity and bond markets on a global basis.

Really, sit back and think about it. Put some thought into figuring out how difficult it is to successfully manipulate real estate (commercial and residential), stock and bond markets in just one major country. Then give the same thought to how difficult it would be to do the same in nearly all of the developed nations who participated in this crisis. The mere attempt to do so has loaded them up with debt at a time of marginal if not negative GDP and economic upside, a disgruntled populace ripe to ripple from the causes of social unrest rising from the rife economic conditions that the aftermath of incessant bubble blowing has wrought, and last but not least - fundamentally overvalued investment markets.<!––more––>

Was it really worth it? Is it going to last? I believe, and am rather confident in this belief, that we will be FORCED to finish what was started in 2008 - and that is the (re)commencement of the down leg of a major asset cycle. We had several concurrent booms (real estate - both residential and commercial, credit, fixed income, and equity) and an incomplete bust that failed to totally let the air out of the bubble. To make matters substantially worse, governments (on a global basis, mind you) wasted the resources of their countries and taxpayers in an attempt to fight the markets and the normal economic cycle by both re-inflating said bubbles (all of them to some extent) while simultaneously indemnifying and pumping full of undeserved capital, the massive agents of leverage which initially were the conduits of the bubble blowing pressure. As a result of being the conduits, they were also the foci of the deleveraging forces that culminated in the bust. These agents, at least a very large portion of them, have proven themselves to be financially incompetent and undeserving to remain as an ongoing concern from an economic perspective. Their political and lobbying clout said otherwise, and they have siphoned capital and staying power from the public sector through regulatory capture and now the poison that was the over-leveraged, "new guard" FIRE sector has now infiltrated entire countries and sovereign nations.

Those who may not follow me may think this is naught but fancy prose on a down day in the markets. Well, I have been preaching this publicly since 2007 and before the markets broke. I have named, on an individual basis and months ahead of the event, those agents that should have fallen - and for the most part did fall if not for massive government intervention, ex. Bear Stearns, Lehman, GGP, Countrywide, WaMu, etc. - see Did Reggie Middleton, a Blogger at BoomBustBlog, Best Wall Streets Best of the Best?, and I am saying now that the last two years of faux, government/central bank "purchased" recovery is simply unsustainable while the majority of the underlying issues that caused 2008 to happen are still present, and most of them are worse now than they were back then.

The market collapse commenced in 2007, and gained momentum in 2008, maximizing its velocity and strength in the 1st quarter of 2009. This collapse was not the result of the indicators that we hear bandied about so often in the mainstream media. It was not borne from stagnating GDP, slow retail sales, lots of snow nor high unemployment. As a matter of fact, all of these factors were literally on fire in 2006 through 2007. The market collapsed because the overinflated real asset market had finally reached its peak. Since this overinflated market was financed primarily with debt, upon its deflation accelerated destruction of equity and capital commenced. Once you lose 10% of market value on a cash investment, you lose 10% of your equity as well. If you are levered 2x, that 10% market drop equated to a 20% wealth loss. 5% downpayment housing deals, equate to deeply negative equity values at a 10% market correction. So, if one were to sit back and realize that 125% LTV (or a negative 25% down) housing deals didn't just exist, they were relatively plentiful by historical standards, and derivative structures allowed certain corporate players (ex. the monoline insurers) to employ 90x+ leverage, there is no wonder what happened when the housing market dropped 36% and the CRE market dropped 42%. Believe me, dear readers. They are not finished falling.

MUCH more to this article, here.

Quoted:
California is taking a seismic drubbing

The whole enchilada could let loose before this thread is over.

People are FLEEING California. Fact.

http://blog.american.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/streeter-61810-c.gif

and every day we inch ever closer to 2012...

Quoted:
Reggie is a smart cookie - I enjoy his posts over most all others:

Quoted:
One thing is for sure, and the past proves it. The people in the market play it till the last second. So watching the market is secondary in my opinion. I'm not an economist, rather an observer of things. Look at whats going on in the world, your own country, State, job etc. Stuff is not real stable right now. As people have pointed out not much has changed. The gov is still spending like no tomorrow. The mid east is looking bad. We can't drill here. The Pres thinks 10 billion in spending cuts is to much in a budget that is 1.6 trillion over budget. Boomers are retiring at a fast pace now. Now is a time to be careful. There is money to be made for sure, but it is betting on failure of stuff. I think real estate still could make money but you have to buy it bargain rates and be able to pay with cash. Not alot of folks can do that.
Doom and gloom, maybe, reality for sure. To reiterate don't watch the market to guage things (to much). It can crash fast.
Plan for the worst, hope for the best...and 2012 can't come fast enough.

Quoted:




I know we're one step closer to Armageddon - Obama blames oil companies for NOT drilling.    No, seriously!


Anyone else starting to think that we need to have an "executive experience required" clause before running for POTUS?