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Posted: 8/14/2009 12:45:15 PM EDT


As one commenter said: "Mathematicians Prove That Violence is Always - And Quite Possibly the Best - Option."






A Mathematical Model for Surviving the Zombie Apocalypse



 
 









 




We
may think we know how best to eradicate the zombie threat, but movies
and books give us, at best, an anecdotal account of how to deal with
the undead. A new paper, however, offers mathematical models for human survival.







In a paper published in Infectious Disease Modelling Research Progress,
a team of mathematicians from Carleton University and the University of
Ottawa have created a series of mathematical models to explore the
effects of a zombie outbreak and determine the best course for human
survival. For the purpose of the paper, the team limited their models
to the George Romero slow-moving zombies, and created separate models
for zombie infections that cause the infected to resurrect immediately
after contact with a zombie and for zombie infections with a 24-hour
incubation period.






The paper examines three possible methods of dealing with a zombie
outbreak: quarantine of the zombies, treatment of zombies so that they
once again become human, and impulsive eradication of the zombies
whenever possible. The models found that quarantine could work, but the
end result would be either the eradication of all zombies or the
eradication of all humans; if a cure for being a zombie were found,
humans would coexist with zombies, but only in low numbers; but
eradication, if properly coordinated, could wipe out the entire zombie
population in a mere ten days.






Science has proved it: aim for the head, and kill without mercy.






















 
Link Posted: 8/14/2009 1:03:40 PM EDT
[#1]
Some people have too much time on their hands, but is useful at times.  
Link Posted: 8/14/2009 1:31:22 PM EDT
[#2]
that is awesome!
Link Posted: 8/14/2009 1:39:01 PM EDT
[#3]
Here's a quick quote:




7. Discussion




An outbreak of zombies infecting humans is likely to be disastrous, unless extremely aggressive


tactics are employed against the undead. While aggressive quarantine may eradicate


the infection, this is unlikely to happen in practice. A cure would only result in some


humans surviving the outbreak, although they will still coexist with zombies. Only sufficiently


frequent attacks, with increasing force, will result in eradication, assuming the


available resources can be mustered in time.




Furthermore, these results assumed that the timescale of the outbreak was short, so that


the natural birth and death rates could be ignored. If the timescale of the outbreak increases,


then the result is the doomsday scenario: an outbreak of zombies will result in the collapse


of civilisation, with every human infected, or dead. This is because human births and


deaths will provide the undead with a limitless supply of new bodies to infect, resurrect


and convert. Thus, if zombies arrive, we must act quickly and decisively to eradicate them


before they eradicate us.




The key difference between the models presented here and other models of infectious


disease is that the dead can come back to life. Clearly, this is an unlikely scenario if taken


literally, but possible real-life applications may include allegiance to political parties, or


diseases with a dormant infection.




This is, perhaps unsurprisingly, the first mathematical analysis of an outbreak of zombie


infection. While the scenarios considered are obviously not realistic, it is nevertheless


instructive to develop mathematical models for an unusual outbreak. This demonstrates


the flexibility of mathematical modelling and shows how modelling can respond to a wide


variety of challenges in ‘biology’.




In summary, a zombie outbreak is likely to lead to the collapse of civilisation, unless it


is dealt with quickly. While aggressive quarantine may contain the epidemic, or a cure may


lead to coexistence of humans and zombies, the most effective way to contain the rise of


the undead is to hit hard and hit often. As seen in the movies, it is imperative that zombies


are dealt with quickly, or else we are all in a great deal of trouble.





Link Posted: 8/14/2009 2:51:59 PM EDT
[#4]
Clearly, this is an unlikely scenario if taken
literally, but possible real-life applications may include allegiance to political parties, or
diseases with a dormant infection.




Sounds like they're describing democrats.
Link Posted: 8/15/2009 3:55:17 AM EDT
[#5]
Came across this one

Gotta hit hard and fast...

<snip>

This was followed by the other math students in the basement gathering around the computer, happily creating a plausible model for the outbreak of infectious zombie disease, and then brainstorming on how to make their model relevant.

“Clearly, this is an unlikely scenario if taken literally,” they wrote. “But possible real-life applications may include allegiance to political parties, or diseases with a dormant infection.”

Right.

Anyway, the model focuses on modern zombies, which are “very different from the voodoo and the folklore zombies.” It takes into account the possibility of quarantine (could lead to eradication, but unlikely to happen) and treatment (some humans survive, but they still must coexist with zombies), but shows that there is only one strategy likely to succeed: “impulsive eradication.”

“Only sufficiently frequent attacks, with increasing force, will result in eradication, assuming the available resources can be mustered in time,” they concluded.

And if we don’t act fast enough?

“If the timescale of the outbreak increases, then the result is the doomsday scenario: an outbreak of zombies will result in the collapse of civilization, with every human infected, or dead,” they wrote. “This is because human births and deaths will provide the undead with a limitless supply of new bodies to infect, resurrect and convert.”

How fast do we need to deal with the outbreak? Here’s the equation they used, where S = susceptibles, Z = zombies and R = removed. If an infection breaks out in a city of 500,000 people, the zombies will outnumber the susceptibles in about three days.
Link Posted: 8/15/2009 2:13:44 PM EDT
[#6]
I am depending on my Ruger 10/22 to get me through the hoards of Zeds.  What a time for Wally World to be out of Federal 550 bricks.
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