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Posted: 2/15/2017 12:22:45 PM EDT
Im kind of scared of stock market since Im such a newb and it just seems a bit more volatile.  Would it be better to start with a less volatile system such as ETF or mutual funds?  to be honest, im even kind of scared of ETF as well since Im not quite sure what its for.  I think I get the basics of how MF works:

expense ratios
some funds have different classes, the more $ you have to invest, the better the class and the better your expense ratio
trading is essentially free - but most funds have 30/60 day hold periods or its a "round trip" which you want to avoid or they will eventually blackball you
fidelity has some external funds as NTF for free trades, but where round trip actually costs you $
purpose of index funds

What else do I need to know?  Or is this just a fantastically stupid idea?

I mean, some of these have crazy returns.  crazy fees, but they well make up for it

Link Posted: 2/15/2017 12:29:30 PM EDT
[#1]
Just get in; just about never get out.

By that I mean don't try to time the market and don't try to pick stocks/funds, at least not in the beginning.

Here's what I would do (have done):

1.  Determine risk tolerance:  do you like to win more than you hate to lose?  Or vice versa?  Also a function of age/time to invest (see #2), but generally speaking, if you like to win, invest a larger % in stocks/stock funds; if not, don't invest much in stocks (keep your $ in the bank which is a bad idea but if you hate to lose, that's your only option).
2.  If you're investing (as opposed to trading) for the long term (>5 years) then you should be primarily in stock.
3.  Build a core/base for your portfolio:  S&P500 index for example.  Just buy it; don't worry about if it's up or down, just buy it.  As an example:  many stocks and the indexes are at all time highs.  If that "scares" you then put your money in the bank and wait until they are not at all time highs (again, bad idea but if you can't afford to put your $ to work for you and suffer some potential losses, that's your option).
4.  When your core reaches a level you are comfortable with, then start doing the whacky things the posts below will recommend you do.  Kidding to a degree but the suggestions to come will include this index, foreign this, total market that, gold, options, etc.  You don't need any of those options (ever but especially not in the beginning) to build an "engine" that will power your portfolio.

TL;DR:  S&P500 index and forget it.
Link Posted: 2/15/2017 12:33:34 PM EDT
[#2]
It's more of a buy and let it sit.

You can jump in and out each week.
Link Posted: 2/15/2017 12:41:25 PM EDT
[#3]
Link Posted: 2/15/2017 12:50:56 PM EDT
[#4]
Careful of those high returns.

I did that with FBIOX. It was returning something crazy, like 60%, since it was created maybe 8 years prior.

I bought, apparently at the top. It looked as close as you could get to a sure thing... at least for a year or so.

I'm still underwater on it.  
Link Posted: 2/15/2017 12:57:43 PM EDT
[#5]
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Quoted:
I just read about "mutual fund market timing" investor Gil Blake yesterday. He got his start by getting in and out of Fidelity mutual funds that didn't have transaction fees. Fidelity caught on and made it harder to do it, and that was 30-40 years ago.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gil_Blake

But to respond to your post, what is your plan? It seems like you are saying you want to get in and out of these funds on a regular basis. So what is your plan on when to buy and when to sell?

Without a plan, there's no point.
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Thats really the primary question I have here.  not sure what kind of thing, signs, etc, to look for that would tell me to act certain ways.  I was wondering if regular stock/trading techniques would work (of which I have no clue of here either).  My assumption ( is it right?/wrong?) is that mutual funds are not as volatile as stocks and would represent baby steps here in starting trading?
Link Posted: 2/15/2017 1:07:00 PM EDT
[#6]
Link Posted: 2/15/2017 2:22:30 PM EDT
[#7]
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Quoted:


Thats really the primary question I have here.  not sure what kind of thing, signs, etc, to look for that would tell me to act certain ways.  I was wondering if regular stock/trading techniques would work (of which I have no clue of here either).  My assumption ( is it right?/wrong?) is that mutual funds are not as volatile as stocks and would represent baby steps here in starting trading?
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Quoted:
I just read about "mutual fund market timing" investor Gil Blake yesterday. He got his start by getting in and out of Fidelity mutual funds that didn't have transaction fees. Fidelity caught on and made it harder to do it, and that was 30-40 years ago.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gil_Blake

But to respond to your post, what is your plan? It seems like you are saying you want to get in and out of these funds on a regular basis. So what is your plan on when to buy and when to sell?

Without a plan, there's no point.


Thats really the primary question I have here.  not sure what kind of thing, signs, etc, to look for that would tell me to act certain ways.  I was wondering if regular stock/trading techniques would work (of which I have no clue of here either).  My assumption ( is it right?/wrong?) is that mutual funds are not as volatile as stocks and would represent baby steps here in starting trading?


Do you think that if anyone actually could do that (i.e. successfully time the market and/or pick stocks), they would tell anyone else how to do it?

Trading is not equal to investing.  If you want to trade, do it as a hobby.  If you want to get rich, invest.

As much as people don't want to believe it, there have been very few who have ever beaten the market consistently and essentially none who have done so in a statistically significant way.

Goes back to LuckyDucky's question:  what is your (overall) plan?  Trade or invest for retirement?
Link Posted: 2/15/2017 2:31:32 PM EDT
[#8]
Link Posted: 2/15/2017 2:50:46 PM EDT
[#9]
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Some of the trading greats HAVE taught others. And the students WERE successful.

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/08/turtle-trading.asp

The problem with most people is not having a plan, emotional decision-making, and lack of discipline.
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Quoted:


Do you think that if anyone actually could do that (i.e. successfully time the market and/or pick stocks), they would tell anyone else how to do it?

Trading is not equal to investing.  If you want to trade, do it as a hobby.  If you want to get rich, invest.

As much as people don't want to believe it, there have been very few who have ever beaten the market consistently and essentially none who have done so in a statistically significant way.

Goes back to LuckyDucky's question:  what is your (overall) plan?  Trade or invest for retirement?


Some of the trading greats HAVE taught others. And the students WERE successful.

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/08/turtle-trading.asp

The problem with most people is not having a plan, emotional decision-making, and lack of discipline.


The Dennis and Eckhardt experiment is standard fare in investment academia and represent an apple:oranges comparison.  They performed an experiment to show that they could train people to trade.  I never said people couldn't be trained to trade but rather there aren't a lot of people with proven long term track records who are offering trading advice/systems which continuously beat the market.

The easiest way to make a lot of money is to essentially to do nothing...just buying and holding.

But I know, where's the fun in that?
Link Posted: 2/15/2017 2:52:14 PM EDT
[#10]
Link Posted: 2/15/2017 3:42:11 PM EDT
[#11]
That is kind of my point:  if you study the correlation between market outperformance and the likelihood of a repeat market outperformance, it is extremely low.

To continue the baseball analogy, the home run leader in any given season rarely repeats.

In the investing world, in the long run, it's better to get base hits consistently all day, every day, rather than hitting a home run once in a while and striking out most of the time.

Everyone wants to believe there's a way to beat the market.  No one wants to believe that the simplest and easiest way to make a lot of money is buy and hold with a few index funds.

Sure, one can assume a disproportionate amount of risk (which is illogical, but people do it anyway) and maybe hit a home run now and then, but if that's your plan you also have to be able to withstand the inevitable and drastic downturns associated with that strategy.

Most people, especially beginners don't have the ability nor funds to do so, hence the reason I stated build a core portfolio that you are pretty sure you can live off of, then "play" with some disposable funds.
Link Posted: 2/15/2017 3:42:52 PM EDT
[#12]
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Quoted:


The Dennis and Eckhardt experiment is standard fare in investment academia and represent an apple:oranges comparison.  They performed an experiment to show that they could train people to trade.  I never said people couldn't be trained to trade but rather there aren't a lot of people with proven long term track records who are offering trading advice/systems which continuously beat the market.

The easiest way to make a lot of money is to essentially to do nothing...just buying and holding.

But I know, where's the fun in that?
View Quote


yeah ok so, well maybe it is a bad idea like I said.

I contribute the yearly limit of 5500, post tax funds to my roth ira.  so its kinda my retirement (I already have other pre and post tax funds towards a 401k with my company's match maxed out at 6%) but its not really my main retirement by any means, (plus wife has a small fund as well we are going to just have 2 index funds in - 500 & nasdaq) so i have some flexibility.  mainly just wondering if i could be taught to have a bit of hands on it so as to squeeze more out of it, and maybe put myself into a position to stocks, where there more volatility,  in the future.  so for this particular IRA, I guess more trading than retirement.
Link Posted: 2/15/2017 3:55:22 PM EDT
[#13]
Buy and hold.
Even the investment pros have trouble performing better than chance...
Link Posted: 2/15/2017 4:13:02 PM EDT
[#14]
If you're willing to take advice over the internet from a stranger (which is essentially what any trading program/system is) I'll give you my "secrets" for free:

My top 4 weightings (in rank order):

1.  Oil:  it ain't gonna be cheap forever.
2.  Financials:  some of the Fed members are now talking 3 or even 4 rate hikes this year.  That alone will be extremely good for financials in general.  Throw in any amount of deregulation and Dodd-Frank roll back and it will be even better, especially for the regionals.  Free bonus tip:  if you own any bonds, sell 'em now unless you plan on holding to maturity and getting maybe 3% before taxes/inflation for your effort.
3.  Lithium:  what do you think is going to be required for all these green electric cars we're going to be force fed?  The oil of the future.
4.  Biotech.

Check back here in a 10 years* and we'll see how I did.

* But I'd be willing to go one year.
Link Posted: 2/16/2017 3:01:26 AM EDT
[#15]
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Quoted:
If you're willing to take advice over the internet from a stranger (which is essentially what any trading program/system is) I'll give you my "secrets" for free:

My top 4 weightings (in rank order):

1.  Oil:  it ain't gonna be cheap forever.
2.  Financials:  some of the Fed members are now talking 3 or even 4 rate hikes this year.  That alone will be extremely good for financials in general.  Throw in any amount of deregulation and Dodd-Frank roll back and it will be even better, especially for the regionals.  Free bonus tip:  if you own any bonds, sell 'em now unless you plan on holding to maturity and getting maybe 3% before taxes/inflation for your effort.
3.  Lithium:  what do you think is going to be required for all these green electric cars we're going to be force fed?  The oil of the future.
4.  Biotech.

Check back here in a 10 years* and we'll see how I did.

* But I'd be willing to go one year.
View Quote


Care to share what stocks/funds you have bought into?
Link Posted: 2/17/2017 4:26:33 AM EDT
[#16]
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Quoted:


Care to share what stocks/funds you have bought into?
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Quoted:
Quoted:
If you're willing to take advice over the internet from a stranger (which is essentially what any trading program/system is) I'll give you my "secrets" for free:

My top 4 weightings (in rank order):

1.  Oil:  it ain't gonna be cheap forever.  Anything anywhere in the oil supply chain:  VDE plus the frac'ers, frac sand suppliers, independents, refiners, retailers, etc.  EOG, PXD, SLCA, REI, SUN, PSXP, etc.
2.  Financials:  some of the Fed members are now talking 3 or even 4 rate hikes this year.  That alone will be extremely good for financials in general.  Throw in any amount of deregulation and Dodd-Frank roll back and it will be even better, especially for the regionals.  Free bonus tip:  if you own any bonds, sell 'em now unless you plan on holding to maturity and getting maybe 3% before taxes/inflation for your effort.  <font color="#ff0000">VFH, KRE, KIE and all of the big banks (BAC, GS, JPM, WFC).[/size=2]
3.  Lithium:  what do you think is going to be required for all these green electric cars we're going to be force fed?  The oil of the future.  LIT, ALB, SQM, FMC.  It's hard to find a pure Lithium play; I own several of the Lithium junior minors but they are pretty volatile.
4.  Biotech.  IBB, BBH plus any of the big biotech firms (my largest holding is REGN).  The small, single drug biotechs are also fairly volatile.

Check back here in a 10 years* and we'll see how I did.

* But I'd be willing to go one year.


Care to share what stocks/funds you have bought into?


Any of the sector specific funds/ETFs offered by your brokerage house (I'm primarily a Vanguard client).

Click "View All Quotes" to see my answers.  Yet another "feature" of the new site.
Link Posted: 2/17/2017 4:54:17 AM EDT
[#17]
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Quoted:
Careful of those high returns.

I did that with FBIOX. It was returning something crazy, like 60%, since it was created maybe 8 years prior.

I bought, apparently at the top. It looked as close as you could get to a sure thing... at least for a year or so.

I'm still underwater on it.  
View Quote


I did that as well in a post tax account.

When it tanked, I bought more through my Fidelity 401k brokerage account so things have evened out at least in some ways.

OP..mutual funds aren't stocks...find a good index fund that has good returns, put your money in it and forget about it.

Also, don't forget the (at least mine) number one rule for investing. Outside of a 401k plan, only invest money in stocks or funds if you don't care about losing that money.   At the end of the day investing is still really nothing more than gambling.
Link Posted: 2/17/2017 2:28:50 PM EDT
[#18]
Buy and hold. You only realize the loss when you actually sell for lower than you paid. 
Day trading makes me nauseous. 
Link Posted: 2/18/2017 1:57:29 PM EDT
[#19]
This is my unprofessional but relatively successful take.

You buy a mutual fund because there is a fund manager that will diversify the fund portfolio with some strategy to maximize his GOAL. What does this mean? You need to know what is the fund manger's goal. In some instances the manager is looking for income. Others might be looking for growth. It could be high risk or low risk. The manager might like a ton of technology vs industrials or consumer. It could also be a combination of multiple things like high growth for the next 15 years slowly switching to income. There are many more factors but you get the picture. Therefore you really need to trust the fund manager, his goals and his abilities to hit those goals. To go one step further you might want to look into succession plans in case the fund manager is 77 years old with heart problems and won't last 15 years. Any future performance will be based upon his strategies.

Personally I think this is a good strategy if you are just starting out and/or don't really want to handle your portfolio frequently. This is exactly how I started out.

At some point when you feel more confident and venture into individual stocks, you become your own fund manager. Follow the same pattern as you would to select a mutual fund by deciding a strategy and goal, buying those stocks that fit your criteria. Soon you'll have 10-15 or more stocks following your plan. Then you may want to move away from putting more into funds and start creating your own portfolio
Link Posted: 2/19/2017 12:04:56 AM EDT
[#20]
If you're a n00b, I absolutely would not do what you're talking about.

Try something like this instead: Research and buy 20 stocks you want to hold onto long-term. Write down why you're buying each one, and track how they actually do against what you predicted. This exercise will teach you a lot about picking stocks, and 20 good companies will give a nice start to a balanced portfolio.
Link Posted: 2/21/2017 5:19:24 PM EDT
[#21]
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Quoted:
If you're a n00b, I absolutely would not do what you're talking about.

Try something like this instead: Research and buy 20 stocks you want to hold onto long-term. Write down why you're buying each one, and track how they actually do against what you predicted. This exercise will teach you a lot about picking stocks, and 20 good companies will give a nice start to a balanced portfolio.
View Quote


that's a good way to get your ass handed to you if you over allocate to sectors that are highly correlated.
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