just got a special about some powder.  primers are on sale at certain places also.  is the market softening?

I think its the whole gun/ammo industry in general. With a 2a friendly president in power we're in the "Salad" years as some like to call it.

Not to mention supplies are catching up to demand (Which as a result gone down)

The non firearms distributors/OEM are not lowering prices it is the wholesalers that are.  Because they have product they can not move.  
Because they assumed the worse result last fall.  OEM Firearms firms have had all kinds of deals out .  And, if the dealers have the $$ to carry
inventory it is a good deal. But, for some they have product that does not sell!

People are relaxing because there is product on the shelves.  People can actually go buy 22 LR ammo with no limits!
There are issues with some things that will take even more time to even out like Hodgdon H4350.

Now that people are driven to buy and hoarders are not getting the return on investment!

I can get anything I want around here, 100% turn around.

Yes, reloading market is softening.

Buy wholesale/bulk cheap and stack it deep time as sales hit imo.

Keep topping off x years of inventory as it drifts lower.

Use inventory WHEN it gets nuts again.

Doing it this way will keep you shooting and out of the frenzy/paying top dollar WHEN the next scare comes.....  

Always amazes me how some of my associates fail to plan/get caught short on just about all supplies every time, seems like its the same few people every time...to the point that i really don't feel sorry for them any more.   Same guys who live in wooded areas and have lost food in freezers numerous times when power fails after storms and blame the power company...but I digress.

Having said that, I certainly didn't have enough true blue during the last one ... that won't happen to me again

Back on topic ... buy it cheap and stack it deep

As a whole, I don't see the market softening very much.  In the retail stores powder is going up.  Primers are the same price.  Boxed bullets are the same.  

Sellers of bulk orders are charging less or are running sales more often, but this could just be reflective of retailers who were unprepared for the panic to end doing whatever desperate thing they can to stay in business.  That would be a short-lived event, not a trend in the market.

I think those "softer" wholesale prices are going to take a long time to really trickle down to the brick-and-mortar LGS level, and I think some of those LGSs are going to hurt because of it.

Under a Democratic president, the "threat" of legal problems loomed over the whole industry, and a lot of local shops were able to expand and diversify their offerings because they could make some profit on the staples of reloading, among other things.  

That this was almost always only a nebulous threat was not the issue; the industry made a LOT more money pushing that threat and stoking the fires of "a ban is imminent!!!!11!!! OMGG!!!"  Panic buying got more and more crazy and panicky every time there was a hint or whisper of some sort of ban.

Look at what happened when ATF wanted to ban M855 as "armor piercing," despite it being specifically exempted from that definition...  WE (that's you and me) contacted most of the heavy hitters in Washington - on BOTH sides of the aisle - and they quashed that move as the stupidity it was.  NOTHING like that ever came from real policy makers; it was a mid-level bureaucrat at ATF that "got to thinking."  But while the smarter ones of us were burning down the phone lines to our Representatives and Senators, a LOT of people were pooping their pants and dropping a lot of money for mediocre ammo.  And prices rose to the challenge, too.  They haven't really recovered from three panics ago.

Bottom line: the market thrived on the potential of new and restrictive regulations.  And if you think there aren't profit hungry, super-cynical suits in the management of every one of the ammunition, component and gun manufacturers in this great land, you're not paying attention.  It's the little guy (like your LGS owner) that takes it in the shorts when those corporate policies wind up backfiring.

Geeze!  Y'all got me fired up about something political on this technical forum!  I'm gonna get a time out from dryflash3 for this one!  

This is the honeymoon year !!!!!! But like all like everything else it will not last, I have been around awile and I have seen this after the Clinton  1994 ban

expired. This is just the calm before the storm. Like another poster "buy em cheap and stack them deep"

Don't forget to rotate your stock,use up all those primers collecting dust and load them up 1st. (just found a few cases of tula primers !!!)

Start cleaning up your reloading room and you won't believe those boxes of bullets you bought cheap and load em up !!!

I could not believe all those bottles  of 231 and 4895 hidden in the back of my stash. How about all that 55 gr fmj we put away,check them for discoloration

then start cleaning all those LC brass that we never even opened up ???  Label your components and organize cases and bullets.

Don't go back to sleep folks !!!!

I remember after y2K people were thowing out their storage food !!!

later

John

I'm finally seeing trailboss and Varget in stock regularly now.  That's a good sign.

Buy it cheap and stack it deep.  Start inventorying your favorites - trust me on this.  I've ridden this train many times - if you think these good times are going to last - I'm here to tell you they won't.  We are in the price trough right now, and this bottom will last another 6-12 months easy.  And then the winds of election risks will start to blow right about when the inventories get depleted from the factories going back to just day-shifts, and the last Inventory Reduction sale is done.  And then it's going to drift up again, and then it's going to get stupid - I've seen this too many times.

Also, be aware that we have a protectionist administration now.  Copper and lead and such prices are internationally driven, and are moving up.  In the last 12 months, lead prices have gone up close to 30%.  So has copper.  Maybe that's also related to the value of the dollar.  But the point is places like Brownells are dumping match quality NORMA ammo right now with what is essentially Lapua quality brass, for less than 30 cents a shot.  That's not going to last.  That was made, ordered and inventoried based on last years raw materials prices, and last years sales projections.  Good luck seeing that deal next year.  Now is the time to slowly over-buy on everything.  Primers are finally back down to 2 cents a pop (if you shop hard enough).  Powder is easily below $20/lb (I'm picking it up for less than $15).  You have a solid 12 months, so no reason to panic, but in 36 months - things could suck mightily.  Don't take money away from your 401k plans here, but I would not at all be surprised if the commodities we buy, outpace the stock market over the next 3-4 years (again).

I have not seen any softening of reloading supplies here at LGS in the Charleston SC area, prices are steady on primers, increasing on powder.

Average Prices

$40 for K primers

$25 for low end powders HP38, Unique, etc

$33 for Varget, H4831 etc

Yuck!   If you are in the market to buy, and have the inclination ... let them know what you're looking for here , or keep an eye on it if you are so inclined.   Seriously, during the scares, good deal inventory popped up here as quick or quicker than the bots and sniffer alerts did.    

no interest in that, no problem, i get it.

No.

Haaeeelllllllll No

No.

Tell them to enjoy their dust collection system - because no.

Up until a few years ago, metal costs were being driven up by China buying metals (lead, copper, steel, etc.) at inflated prices because it was cheaper than exploiting their own (vast) resources.  I think it had something to do with the fact that buying metal from the US meant it was not going to have melamine or some other contaminant in it! . Seriously, there's much to be said for the idea that the Bosses in China may have wanted the stuff to be made right, rather than by their own, seriously corrupt industrialists.

I'll also point a finger squarely at US-based scrap dealers who buy surplus military cases and sell it overseas as scrap brass, instead of making a bit more money by selling it back to American reloaders.  They have made it awfully hard to get quality surplus brass without paying a huge premium - while they still sell tons of this stuff overseas for way less per pound.

It looks like Copper price trends were slowly falling until about this time last year, when they started trending up.  Lead was relatively steady until the same timeframe last year when it started going up again.

Historically, copper skyrocketed in about 2007, dropped a whole lot in 2009, and went way back up shortly afterward with a gradual decline until last August.

None of these trends lines up with US elections nor with policy decisions that can be easily identified.  They are, however, consistent with large Chinese projects...

I don't think the current price trends are due to "protectionism" per se.  I think it can be attributed to an expectation of some sort of protectionism, though.  I don't think these price trends are due to a "stronger dollar" either, since the value of the dollar versus the Euro has been consistently trending downward since about December 2016.  

There are systemic "ripples" that may not be due to intentional policy actions, but they certainly happen anyway - like the panic buying of M855 when it looked like ATF might ban it.  And there are international actors who don't give a rat's tail about specific US politics when they make raw material decisions.

What this comes down to is that component and ammunition makers have to bet on specific movements in these markets, as well as betting on which calibers and loads will sell how much.  Keep in mind that .22 ammunition didn't dry up because people didn't want it, but instead because ammo makers concentrated on a number of centerfire products - and didn't see the huge demand for .22 eating up stocks as fast as it did.

Sorry Double Tap

fumble fingers

The powders I've watched the prices have come down as availability has increased, but as I think most understand, that is supply and demand, and probably not the manufacturers cutting costs.

I've watched the lead/copper prices, and the bullet prices did not follow. You might see a year lag based on how manufacturers budget for production costs (think copper will be $5/lb, but ends up softening to $2/lb) but even that does not seem to hold up to scrutiny, which either indicates good profit for manufacturers, or that materials are not necessarily the only issue in what the consumer sees as cost.

This is God's fact! Not supposition.  
OEM's have not lowered prices!  Period.  Now, some OEM's have offered deals on top of the programs that their direct customers already get. Like Hornady after NRA Meetings had an one time 5% off on top of what ever pricing structure plan vendors were under.
Places like Nosler, Hornady, Berger, Swift, Barnes, Hodgdon, Western, Alliant set their prices well in advance of the first of the year!

Things to remember....
Alliant powder are easier to source but still sketchy in some of the product line like RL16 and the shotgun powders
Western powder is better but have yet to see Solo 1000
Hodgdon (Win Hod IMR) is doing well except for H4350

Primers have not changed prices at the WHSLE level except Remington primers are now prices in the same range as CCI etc.

Brass from Winchester is more available.  And still a lot not out there.  
Brass from Remington is still vaporware.
Starline keeps expanding their offerings especially in the rifle brass!
Smaller companies are making good brass like Peterson, Kinetic, and Alpha

Now what wholesalers do to manage their inventory has changed with many vendors offering free shipping on orders over 50# of powder or no haz mat etc.
Lyman came up with a limited scope rebate program
Vista Outdoors had season specials
Hornady is the same all year.

Just an FYI..


here we are in August....the 8th month of the year....

Lead (spot?) prices typically go up at the beginning of the new year as industries which use lead put in their orders (and I guess try to lock in a price).

Also...usually the same lead prices spike like every quarter too...for the same reason.

I have seen commercial bullet casters try to stir up business that way with their facebook posts "OMG!  LEAD PRICES GOING UP!  HURRY BUY NOW!"

whether the unsuspecting masses gobble that shit up.... I don't know.

when I get back home and get on a real computer, I will check out the Graf's website to see what powders are going for.  I bought 10,000 Winchester primers through my gun club.  They have a dealer's account at Graf's.  I want to say that each sleeve (5K) was like $121 .

I don't know if it's softening.  I see more product on the shelves, but the prices don't seem to be coming down much, if at all.

Powder will pretty much last my life time if kept sealed and in a climate controlled area, right?

I believe most manufacturers say that sealed, stored in a cool, low humidity environment, out of sunlight, the lifespan of the powder is nearly unlimited.

I've loaded and shot powder that had to be 20+ years old, stored in non-original (tobacco tins) for much of that time, but in a very low humidity, cool environment. No issues. Not that I would particularly recommend it, but it worked. Might have degraded performance if you were to measure, but for plinking ammo, it was fine.

With the new plastic powder jugs, and glued seals, I doubt even humidity is a factor, as long as heat and sunlight aren't allowed to damage the plastic.

My recommendation, if you plan to shoot a lot, is to buy in 8lb cans, and pour those into one pound cans that you open more frequently as needed, to lessen the exposure of the majority of the powder to outside affects. If you plan to hedge against future shortages, 1lb cans are likely a lot easier to trade, but most don't want anything already opened, so they need to remain sealed. Problem with technology is that powders seem to be evolving as fast as everything else, and what used to be a selection of a few powders per manufacturer, is rapidly becoming too numerous to remember, which may lead to your stockpile being something you decide not to use in the future.

I still can't find Alliant 2400 locally. Also, I still haven't seen .22 LR for less than $50 a brick. I guess I better get some anyway, though.

ETA: In my area 1k primers are about $35, and a pound of powder $28-$32 currently. Not too bad for my small town. I'll keep buying and stashing as always. I get my brass and projectiles online mostly.

Just picked up 1k Remington
.400 180gr  fmjs for $44.50


Prices are going down.

Yes i know of their quality...

As an FFL who does enough business to get discounts at the wholesale level I can tell you that certain powders like Varget can be purchased at the usual online retailers for near wholesale, and in some cases, below wholesale prices. I quit selling most powder and primers in my store because the Average Joe is so out of touch in regards to retail price and wholesale price that it made no sense to stock powder only to hear complaints about the price. I didn't make enough mark up to warrant stocking 20-30 different types of powder.

So, in a nutshell, you can go to certain websites and buy powder for the same price I have to pay for it.