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MT, USA
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Posted: 4/11/2024 2:41:52 PM EDT
[#1]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By jackthom8: I will never forget GD making fun of bitcoin in 2022 when it dropped to $19k and saying that it was worthless and done for good  Or how about in 2019 when it dipped below $4k.... there were (well known) dudes on here saying "It's done, it's gonna drop below $1. Get out while you can!". Although, I always figure that those types of guys are secretly buying the shit up as quickly as they can.... |
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USA
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Posted: 4/11/2024 2:45:17 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Sebastian_MacMaine]
[#2]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Notcalifornialegal: Still got some ways to go.  Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Notcalifornialegal: Still got some ways to go. It's done just under a 2X in five months. Still 13 months to run. Between the halvening, the ETFs, andChina rumored to be allowing ETFs in Hong Kong starting next week, I don't really see a downtrend any time soon. Originally Posted By piperpa24: appropriate since half the money you invested in it will be gone at some point. Submitted for your enjoyment: https://www.history.com/news/tulip-mania-financial-crash-holland Sigh. "Tulip Mania" was caused by the Dutch government forcibly changing the terms of tulip bulb contracts between farmers and rich buyers from futures contracts to options contracts, in order to bail out the rich. It didn't last very long, but the religious nutjobs of that era seized upon it as a way to push their "Christian poverty" moral precepts, and wrote up a bunch of lies about people killing themselves or being punished for damaging plants. It had essentially nothing to do with fads or actual financial bubbles, just government interference in markets. You might as well cite all the people who got Corzined in 2008 by the Obama judge who said "ha-ha, Jon Corzine is a big Democrat, so it's ok that he stole your segregated assets out of your vaults and traded them to try to enrich himself. Suck it, poors!" as a reason the commodities markets are a scam. |
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Posted: 4/11/2024 2:46:44 PM EDT
[Last Edit: woodsie]
[#3]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By MtnMusic: Or how about in 2019 when it dipped below $4k.... there were (well known) dudes on here saying "It's done, it's gonna drop below $1. Get out while you can!". Although, I always figure that those types of guys are secretly buying the shit up as quickly as they can.... Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By MtnMusic: Originally Posted By jackthom8: I will never forget GD making fun of bitcoin in 2022 when it dropped to $19k and saying that it was worthless and done for good Or how about in 2019 when it dipped below $4k.... there were (well known) dudes on here saying "It's done, it's gonna drop below $1. Get out while you can!". Although, I always figure that those types of guys are secretly buying the shit up as quickly as they can.... If you go into the archives and search "Bitcoin" you'll find "Bitcoin is dead for sure!" posts in every single bear market year like 2014, 2018, and 2022. To be fair, if you search in 2013, 2017, and 2017 you'll find posts that greatly overshoot the actual potential of those particular bull market years. We are in a bull market once again so you are going to hear a lot more "Bitcoin is going to a million this time!" posts in the next 12 months. The people declaring it's demise won't be back until 2026 give or take and then we can do it all over again. |
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USA
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Posted: 4/11/2024 2:47:30 PM EDT
[#4]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By terryj: On 4/20 at 4:20? Hitler's Birthday, Bitcoin halving. Coincidence? I THINK NOT! |
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Posted: 4/11/2024 2:48:44 PM EDT
[#5]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Sebastian_MacMaine: Hitler's Birthday, Bitcoin halving. Coincidence? I THINK NOT! Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Sebastian_MacMaine: Originally Posted By terryj: On 4/20 at 4:20? Hitler's Birthday, Bitcoin halving. Coincidence? I THINK NOT! 
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PA, USA
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Posted: 4/11/2024 2:50:44 PM EDT
[#6]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By woodsie: Submitted for your enjoyment and yes I was in this thread 11 years ago: https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/178958/Capture_JPG-3184999.JPG Tulip mania didn't last 11 years nor did it survive multiple crashes let alone one crash. That analogy is old, tired, and long since invalidated. Bitcoin can fail for lots of reasons but not for the same reasons that the tulip market crashed. ETA: Tulips was doomed from the beginning because you can always grow more bulbs. The price going up just increases the incentive for farmland to be dedicated to growing tulips. Not only can you not increase the rate of Bitcoin production but the very subject of this thread is discussing the fact that the rate of Bitcoin production keeps dropping every four years. If there was a fixed number of Tulip bulbs that could ever exist, they WOULD be valuable and people would probably still be speculating on them increasing in value in 2024. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By woodsie: Originally Posted By piperpa24: appropriate since half the money you invested in it will be gone at some point. Submitted for your enjoyment: https://www.history.com/news/tulip-mania-financial-crash-holland Submitted for your enjoyment and yes I was in this thread 11 years ago: https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/178958/Capture_JPG-3184999.JPG Tulip mania didn't last 11 years nor did it survive multiple crashes let alone one crash. That analogy is old, tired, and long since invalidated. Bitcoin can fail for lots of reasons but not for the same reasons that the tulip market crashed. ETA: Tulips was doomed from the beginning because you can always grow more bulbs. The price going up just increases the incentive for farmland to be dedicated to growing tulips. Not only can you not increase the rate of Bitcoin production but the very subject of this thread is discussing the fact that the rate of Bitcoin production keeps dropping every four years. If there was a fixed number of Tulip bulbs that could ever exist, they WOULD be valuable and people would probably still be speculating on them increasing in value in 2024. I agree the Tulip analagy is dumb and should die. BTC has another challenge, can it survive a war by central banks and governments bent on maintaining their control? If the plan is to dumpster the USD and roll out a CBDC I have questions if the central banks will not go to war with the original digital currency. Without government backing I'm not sure if BTC can weather the assault. |
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Posted: 4/11/2024 2:57:15 PM EDT
[#7]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By woodsie: It's fine to say you don't like the volatility or how it's valued but throwing out the Tulips analogy is low effort. If you aren't stupid, which I'm sure you are not, you can find a better criticism of Bitcoin. Hell, I'm waist deep in Bitcoin and I can find a better criticism. I even listed some in my first post. - Volatility - no metrics with which I can evaluate its P/E or business models. - I like stocks that pay dividends or have a verified growth and business policy that one can use to evaluate its worth in terms of investing. - as a currency, which is what people claim that it is, it does not have the necessary liquidity or universal acceptance I feel is needed for it to claim value. - What IS the actual evaluation of a bitcoin? is it the earns, is it capital exposure or management? I don't know. - people claim that "owning" this commodity is secured and security is one of its strong points but there are many reports of people having had their crypto assets stolen. I could name a few more but I think that is sufficient, at least in terms of my evaluation criteria. |
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Posted: 4/11/2024 2:58:42 PM EDT
[Last Edit: woodsie]
[#8]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By xd675: I agree the Tulip analagy is dumb and should die. BTC has another challenge, can it survive a war by central banks and governments bent on maintaining their control? If the plan is to dumpster the USD and roll out a CBDC I have questions if the central banks will not go to war with the original digital currency. Without government backing I'm not sure if BTC can weather the assault. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By xd675: Originally Posted By woodsie: Originally Posted By piperpa24: appropriate since half the money you invested in it will be gone at some point. Submitted for your enjoyment: https://www.history.com/news/tulip-mania-financial-crash-holland Submitted for your enjoyment and yes I was in this thread 11 years ago: https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/178958/Capture_JPG-3184999.JPG Tulip mania didn't last 11 years nor did it survive multiple crashes let alone one crash. That analogy is old, tired, and long since invalidated. Bitcoin can fail for lots of reasons but not for the same reasons that the tulip market crashed. ETA: Tulips was doomed from the beginning because you can always grow more bulbs. The price going up just increases the incentive for farmland to be dedicated to growing tulips. Not only can you not increase the rate of Bitcoin production but the very subject of this thread is discussing the fact that the rate of Bitcoin production keeps dropping every four years. If there was a fixed number of Tulip bulbs that could ever exist, they WOULD be valuable and people would probably still be speculating on them increasing in value in 2024. I agree the Tulip analagy is dumb and should die. BTC has another challenge, can it survive a war by central banks and governments bent on maintaining their control? If the plan is to dumpster the USD and roll out a CBDC I have questions if the central banks will not go to war with the original digital currency. Without government backing I'm not sure if BTC can weather the assault. That's an interesting topic and I don't think anyone really knows but I think the "co-existence" case is stronger today than it was a decade ago now that Bitcoin is being treated more like digital gold than a decentralized currency. I think the threat of Bitcoin turning into an actual currency in practice isn't going to come from North Americans or Europeans but rather people living in third world shitholes with garbage fiat currencies where there actually is a need for an alternative currency. If you look at where cryptocurrency is most often used as an actual currency for daily transactions, it's in certain South American and African countries and they all rely on a Layer 2 solution like lightning network. I wouldn't say it's common but the seeds of something exists in those places and it'll be interesting to watch. I can somewhat imagine a bottom down currency revolution where the 3rd world leads the way in establishing it's acceptability globally. There's no incentive in the U.S. currently to use it that way. The dollar works so well that we consider a year of 10% inflation to be an abject failure. There's plenty of places around the world where our worst year of inflation wouldn't even be their best year. |
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Posted: 4/11/2024 3:00:11 PM EDT
[Last Edit: woodsie]
[#9]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By piperpa24: I thought I was fairly clear about why I don;t view crypto (BTC) as a viable investment for my purposes - but I will enumerate for you: - Volatility - no metrics with which I can evaluate its P/E or business models. - I like stocks that pay dividends or have a verified growth and business policy that one can use to evaluate its worth in terms of investing. - as a currency, which is what people claim that it is, it does not have the necessary liquidity or universal acceptance I feel is needed for it to claim value. - What IS the actual evaluation of a bitcoin? is it the earns, is it capital exposure or management? I don't know. - people claim that "owning" this commodity is secured and security is one of its strong points but there are many reports of people having had their crypto assets stolen. I could name a few more but I think that is sufficient, at least in terms of my evaluation criteria. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By piperpa24: Originally Posted By woodsie: It's fine to say you don't like the volatility or how it's valued but throwing out the Tulips analogy is low effort. If you aren't stupid, which I'm sure you are not, you can find a better criticism of Bitcoin. Hell, I'm waist deep in Bitcoin and I can find a better criticism. I even listed some in my first post. - Volatility - no metrics with which I can evaluate its P/E or business models. - I like stocks that pay dividends or have a verified growth and business policy that one can use to evaluate its worth in terms of investing. - as a currency, which is what people claim that it is, it does not have the necessary liquidity or universal acceptance I feel is needed for it to claim value. - What IS the actual evaluation of a bitcoin? is it the earns, is it capital exposure or management? I don't know. - people claim that "owning" this commodity is secured and security is one of its strong points but there are many reports of people having had their crypto assets stolen. I could name a few more but I think that is sufficient, at least in terms of my evaluation criteria. You were not clear previously, but now you are, and I accept those points at face value. Not sure why you are in this thread though. It's a halving event thread primarily. I can answer some of those points that are phrased as questions or unknowns if you'd like. |
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Posted: 4/11/2024 3:07:17 PM EDT
[#10]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By jackthom8: I will never forget GD making fun of bitcoin in 2022 when it dropped to $19k and saying that it was worthless and done for good The handwriting is on the wall for those who care to read it. |
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Posted: 4/11/2024 3:08:28 PM EDT
[#11]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Nosler180: Hope to acquire some more during the halving "sell the news" dip, if there is one. BTC is the best wealth preservation asset to come about in my lifetime and I plan to pass it on to my heirs in hopes of them having fuck you wealth to be able to follow their dreams and not get locked into some thankless job. |
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Posted: 4/11/2024 3:11:31 PM EDT
[#12]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By woodsie: You were not clear previously, but now you are, and I accept those points at face value. Not sure why you are in this thread though. It's a halving event thread primarily. I can answer some of those points that are phrased as questions or unknowns if you'd like. I'll add that lately my energy stocks have done extremely well. I know that BTC requires gobs of energy to exist and run so I'm on the right side of the overall investment strategy anyway. |
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Posted: 4/11/2024 3:13:43 PM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By piperpa24: Fair enough, if I come up with any that perplex me I'll reach out. I'll add that lately my energy stocks have done extremely well. I know that BTC requires gobs of energy to exist and run so I'm on the right side of the overall investment strategy anyway. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By piperpa24: Originally Posted By woodsie: You were not clear previously, but now you are, and I accept those points at face value. Not sure why you are in this thread though. It's a halving event thread primarily. I can answer some of those points that are phrased as questions or unknowns if you'd like. I'll add that lately my energy stocks have done extremely well. I know that BTC requires gobs of energy to exist and run so I'm on the right side of the overall investment strategy anyway. There you go. That's one way to play it. |
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FL, USA
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Posted: 4/11/2024 3:18:40 PM EDT
[#14]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By KILLERB6: BTC has been the highest returning asset…ever. GME did pretty well too until ppl started selling. |
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Posted: 4/11/2024 3:32:07 PM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By dsg2003gt: GME did pretty well too until ppl started selling. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By dsg2003gt: Originally Posted By KILLERB6: BTC has been the highest returning asset…ever. GME did pretty well too until ppl started selling. I said this back then, but selling is the final act of executing an intentional short squeeze. You are SUPPOSED to sell into the shorts buying to cover. That's how you win the game. Anyone that just rode it back down missed the whole point. |
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Posted: 4/11/2024 3:39:31 PM EDT
[#16]
What is a "hard wallet?" And what's with all the hacking of exchanges where you buy/sell crypto? And don't the glowies know/have access to the Blockchain so you aren't really anonymous?
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Posted: 4/11/2024 3:43:45 PM EDT
[#17]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By thesquidliest: What is a "hard wallet?" And what's with all the hacking of exchanges where you buy/sell crypto? And don't the glowies know/have access to the Blockchain so you aren't really anonymous? Hard wallet is something only you have access to. The exchanges that were hacked involved compromised credentials. If you can be tied to a wallet my understanding is yes they can, but they have to tie you to that wallet. |
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MO, USA
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Posted: 4/11/2024 3:44:25 PM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Krauss: Is it still a pain in the ass to buy bitcoin? Very simple to buy, no so easy to sell, sometimes all but impossible. |
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Posted: 4/11/2024 3:52:38 PM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By sprtpilot: Very simple to buy, no so easy to sell, sometimes all but impossible. That said, I try NOT to sell these days. Why sell BTC into the melting ice cube of fiat dollars? In the future, I'll sell btc for tangible or valuable assets only. Holding BTC for 5 years or more will outpace the dollar, gold, and even the S&P500. |
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Posted: 4/11/2024 3:53:15 PM EDT
[#20]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By thesquidliest: What is a "hard wallet?" And what's with all the hacking of exchanges where you buy/sell crypto? And don't the glowies know/have access to the Blockchain so you aren't really anonymous? A hardware wallet would be something that looks like a USB stick that long story short stores your private keys or in a simplistic way "your Bitcoin". It's something you can disconnect from the internet and put in a safe where it is ostensibly beyond the reach of anyone but yourself. Hacking of exchanges isn't the same as hacking of the underlying cryptocurrency. Every online exchange has the same security issues that any other online entity has. Exchanges are connected to the internet by nature so they have to protect against threats from the internet. At the lowest level, if someone can compromise your login in credentials they can get into your account and send your Bitcoin to their own wallet that is beyond the reach of you, the exchange, and any authorities. One of Bitcoin's features is that there is no trusted third party required to move Bitcoin around but it also becomes an achilles heal in that an exchange can't reverse transaction to send your Bitcoin off the exchange in the same way that a Bank can sometimes unfuck a fraudulent transaction. You've got to take the bad with the good on that one and plan accordingly. Bitcoin has to be treated like literally paper cash money. If you lose it, it's gone. Everyone has access to the Bitcoin Blockchain. All transactions are viewable by the public. Whether someone can actually put an identity to a transaction is another matter. There are means of getting Bitcoins which are incapable of being traced to your name but you'd have to know what you are doing. If I wanted to convert dollars into anonymous Bitcoin, I would get into mining. You might spend $50,000 on hardware and electricity to yield $40,000 in anonymous BTC at a $10,000 loss but if being anonymous is your purpose, making a profit mining isn't the point to begin with. There's probably other ways to do it as well but it's not a subject that I've actually spent much time on. |
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USA
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Posted: 4/11/2024 4:00:12 PM EDT
[#21]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By woodsie: I don't think it's really a binary should/shouldn't thing. Is there a reasonable expectation that Bitcoin will substantially outperform the S&P 500 over the next 1, 5, and 10 years? I say yes. Will you be OK if you pass on it and just stick with stocks and bonds? Also yes. I will however say that the near term potential of Bitcoin is and will continue to be greatly exaggerated through the end of this particular cycle as it has been in every previous cycle. You have to keep in mind that if the peak next year ends up being $150,000, it will require people to believe it was going to go much higher than that. Nobody is buying Bitcoin at $150,000 if the expectation is that $150,000 is the peak. Whoever was buying Bitcoin at $69,000 back in November 2021 obviously thought there was enough gas left in the tank in that rally to make $69,000 a good price. They were wrong, but someone always has to be wrong by the end of any particular bull market for anything by definition. Someone bought Basically what I'm saying is to take those videos with a grain of salt. If the consensus appears to be $X then make sure you are selling well before that. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By woodsie: Originally Posted By FaygoJoe: Should people be trying to get 0.10 Bitcoins like all the vids I've been seeing? I don't think it's really a binary should/shouldn't thing. Is there a reasonable expectation that Bitcoin will substantially outperform the S&P 500 over the next 1, 5, and 10 years? I say yes. Will you be OK if you pass on it and just stick with stocks and bonds? Also yes. I will however say that the near term potential of Bitcoin is and will continue to be greatly exaggerated through the end of this particular cycle as it has been in every previous cycle. You have to keep in mind that if the peak next year ends up being $150,000, it will require people to believe it was going to go much higher than that. Nobody is buying Bitcoin at $150,000 if the expectation is that $150,000 is the peak. Whoever was buying Bitcoin at $69,000 back in November 2021 obviously thought there was enough gas left in the tank in that rally to make $69,000 a good price. They were wrong, but someone always has to be wrong by the end of any particular bull market for anything by definition. Someone bought Basically what I'm saying is to take those videos with a grain of salt. If the consensus appears to be $X then make sure you are selling well before that. Fibonacci says it can go higher than $150.  BITCOIN HALVING WARNING: EVERYONE IS WRONG – THIS WILL HAPPEN INSTEAD |
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Posted: 4/11/2024 4:01:59 PM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Caeser2001: Fibonacci says it can go higher than $150.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-zVby1AGTcgQuote HistoryOriginally Posted By Caeser2001: Originally Posted By woodsie: Originally Posted By FaygoJoe: Should people be trying to get 0.10 Bitcoins like all the vids I've been seeing? I don't think it's really a binary should/shouldn't thing. Is there a reasonable expectation that Bitcoin will substantially outperform the S&P 500 over the next 1, 5, and 10 years? I say yes. Will you be OK if you pass on it and just stick with stocks and bonds? Also yes. I will however say that the near term potential of Bitcoin is and will continue to be greatly exaggerated through the end of this particular cycle as it has been in every previous cycle. You have to keep in mind that if the peak next year ends up being $150,000, it will require people to believe it was going to go much higher than that. Nobody is buying Bitcoin at $150,000 if the expectation is that $150,000 is the peak. Whoever was buying Bitcoin at $69,000 back in November 2021 obviously thought there was enough gas left in the tank in that rally to make $69,000 a good price. They were wrong, but someone always has to be wrong by the end of any particular bull market for anything by definition. Someone bought Basically what I'm saying is to take those videos with a grain of salt. If the consensus appears to be $X then make sure you are selling well before that. Fibonacci says it can go higher than $150. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-zVby1AGTcgCrap! So you are saying I need to sell at $125k? I was really hoping to get $150k. |
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USA
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Posted: 4/11/2024 4:06:10 PM EDT
[#23]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By woodsie: Crap! So you are saying I need to sell at $125k? I was really hoping to get $150k. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By woodsie: Originally Posted By Caeser2001: Originally Posted By woodsie: Originally Posted By FaygoJoe: Should people be trying to get 0.10 Bitcoins like all the vids I've been seeing? I don't think it's really a binary should/shouldn't thing. Is there a reasonable expectation that Bitcoin will substantially outperform the S&P 500 over the next 1, 5, and 10 years? I say yes. Will you be OK if you pass on it and just stick with stocks and bonds? Also yes. I will however say that the near term potential of Bitcoin is and will continue to be greatly exaggerated through the end of this particular cycle as it has been in every previous cycle. You have to keep in mind that if the peak next year ends up being $150,000, it will require people to believe it was going to go much higher than that. Nobody is buying Bitcoin at $150,000 if the expectation is that $150,000 is the peak. Whoever was buying Bitcoin at $69,000 back in November 2021 obviously thought there was enough gas left in the tank in that rally to make $69,000 a good price. They were wrong, but someone always has to be wrong by the end of any particular bull market for anything by definition. Someone bought Basically what I'm saying is to take those videos with a grain of salt. If the consensus appears to be $X then make sure you are selling well before that. Fibonacci says it can go higher than $150. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-zVby1AGTcgCrap! So you are saying I need to sell at $125k? I was really hoping to get $150k. Touche'. Missed the k, higher than $150k. |
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Posted: 4/11/2024 4:07:21 PM EDT
[Last Edit: thirsty]
[#24]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By piperpa24: I have my own well diversified and successful investments that have and continue to do well for me. I have researched crypto fairly well and what I don't like is the volatility and "pyramid scheme" type model that it is. So don't insinuate that I'm stupid for not buying into something you really like and I don't like. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By piperpa24: Originally Posted By Mazeman: That is such a tired and disproven analogy. When someone uses it, it tells me that they have not studied BTC at all. I have researched crypto fairly well and what I don't like is the volatility and "pyramid scheme" type model that it is. So don't insinuate that I'm stupid for not buying into something you really like and I don't like. You’re not stupid for your stance on BTC. You simply used a stupid analogy to detract from BTC when all you had to do was state what you posted above. The volatility is a very real con to BTC. My investment portfolio consists of multiple stock exchange products across multiple brokerage firms, a bit of BTC, some ETH and SOL, both of which I’m going to trade for more BTC soon. |
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USA
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Posted: 4/11/2024 4:11:15 PM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By jaqufrost: IMO a reasonable savings is more like 1btc. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By jaqufrost: Originally Posted By FaygoJoe: Should people be trying to get 0.10 Bitcoins like all the vids I've been seeing? I would add some LTC as well. |
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Posted: 4/11/2024 4:18:41 PM EDT
[#26]
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IN, USA
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Posted: 4/11/2024 4:54:20 PM EDT
[Last Edit: InsaneRusher]
[#27]
I have done really well though the up down cycles buying at low points since i started down this road back in 2011, holding through the upswings and dumping for a tidy profit near peak levels and then doing it all again.
currently sitting on a stache purchased in the teens but I'm not sure about when or if to sell this go around. with the ETF market opening up I'm not sure that we will see a major drop in the price as we have in the past I am still on the fence about when or if to sell. I am starting to think I will just hold what I have and only sell small portions of my holding as and if I need the cash for something else. |
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Posted: 4/11/2024 4:59:01 PM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By InsaneRusher: I have done really well though the up down cycles buying at low points since i started down this road back in 2011, holding through the upswings and dumping for a tidy profit near peak levels and then doing it all again. currently sitting on a stache purchased in the teens but I'm not sure about when or if to sell this go around. with the ETF market opening up I'm not sure that we will see a major drop in the price as we have in the past I am still on the fence about when or if to sell. I starting to think I will just hold what I have and only sell small portions of my holding as and if I need the cash for something else. Major drops are a product of major booms. If ETFs don't drive a big Ole moon shot this year then they probably won't drive a big drop either. If we double in a matter of days or weeks as has happened in prior periods of mania just before a blow off top, I'd fully expect to see a reckoning. I mean, it'd be cool if Bitcoin just put up a cool 50% per year from here on out with no more booms and busts but I wouldn't bank on it. |
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IN, USA
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Posted: 4/11/2024 5:11:40 PM EDT
[#29]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By woodsie: Major drops are a product of major booms. If ETFs don't drive a big Ole moon shot this year then they probably won't drive a big drop either. If we double in a matter of days or weeks as has happened in prior periods of mania just before a blow off top, I'd fully expect to see a reckoning. I mean, it'd be cool if Bitcoin just put up a cool 50% per year from here on out with no more booms and busts but I wouldn't bank on it. fair enough a major boom will likely see a bust, but i figure we are at the floor starting price of say 60K maybe 50 K. I just can't see BTC going back into the teens next down cycle. |
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USA
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Posted: 4/11/2024 5:12:51 PM EDT
[#30]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By KILLERB6: People still do. The handwriting is on the wall for those who care to read it. Maybe so, but I remember that your reading comprehension is pretty bad.
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Posted: 4/11/2024 6:26:23 PM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By InsaneRusher: fair enough a major boom will likely see a bust, but i figure we are at the floor starting price of say 60K maybe 50 K. I just can't see BTC going back into the teens next down cycle. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By InsaneRusher: Originally Posted By woodsie: Major drops are a product of major booms. If ETFs don't drive a big Ole moon shot this year then they probably won't drive a big drop either. If we double in a matter of days or weeks as has happened in prior periods of mania just before a blow off top, I'd fully expect to see a reckoning. I mean, it'd be cool if Bitcoin just put up a cool 50% per year from here on out with no more booms and busts but I wouldn't bank on it. fair enough a major boom will likely see a bust, but i figure we are at the floor starting price of say 60K maybe 50 K. I just can't see BTC going back into the teens next down cycle. I'd think you are probably right or atleast in the neighborhood. The only scenario I wouldn't rule out would be something like the Covid crash where we dumped to levels, albeit briefly, that were way out of trend. |
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Posted: 4/11/2024 11:12:04 PM EDT
[Last Edit: KILLERB6]
[#32]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Sebastian_MacMaine: Maybe so, but I remember that your reading comprehension is pretty bad.  I am a pretty early BTC adopter; I saw the handwriting on the wall and applied it to ETH and LTC: very early adopter of those two. |
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Posted: 4/14/2024 2:26:19 PM EDT
[#33]
Potentially moving up to Friday April 19th at the rate blocks are dropping. Looks like it will be in the evening if it does go Friday.
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Posted: 4/18/2024 9:19:15 AM EDT
[#34]
Narrowing in in the final time of the halving. Now approximately 11:11pm tomorrow night.
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Posted: 4/18/2024 9:22:00 AM EDT
[#35]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By woodsie: Narrowing in in the final time of the halving. Now approximately 11:11pm tomorrow night. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/178958/Capture_JPG-3191064.JPG Think neighbors will be confused if I set off fireworks? |
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Posted: 4/18/2024 9:26:07 AM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By SERVED_USMC: Think neighbors will be confused if I set off fireworks? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By SERVED_USMC: Originally Posted By woodsie: Narrowing in in the final time of the halving. Now approximately 11:11pm tomorrow night. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/178958/Capture_JPG-3191064.JPG Think neighbors will be confused if I set off fireworks? Only one way to find out. |
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Posted: 4/18/2024 5:54:18 PM EDT
[#37]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By woodsie: Narrowing in in the final time of the halving. Now approximately 11:11pm tomorrow night. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/178958/Capture_JPG-3191064.JPG Soon |
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Posted: 4/19/2024 5:58:24 PM EDT
[#38]
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FL, USA
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Posted: 4/19/2024 6:06:03 PM EDT
[#39]
I got 2500 to burn, guess ill throw it in there
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USA
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Posted: 4/19/2024 6:09:56 PM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By madmathew: Doesn't Bitcoin generally become worth more after the halving event? Yes. And reading the OP makes it extremely clear. |
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USA
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Posted: 4/19/2024 6:11:32 PM EDT
[#41]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By jackthom8: I will never forget GD making fun of bitcoin in 2022 when it dropped to $19k and saying that it was worthless and done for good It's ironic when people laugh at others for not being good at projecting the future... from California. |
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USA
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Posted: 4/19/2024 6:11:49 PM EDT
[#42]
so...
bitcoin to $100k tonight? |
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USA
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Posted: 4/19/2024 6:16:02 PM EDT
[#43]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By killstick_engaged: I cashed out except for 1 BTC. In the very near future the government will pull a china / saudi arabia and make it illegal to own with the swipe of a pen. China is the model the US govt is aiming for. Woke China, so its coming. Once the current banking system is truly threatened they will go to extreme lengths to prop it up. They'll let you 'invest' in it via ETFs, but won't allow you to hold it yourself citing illegal uses and crime etc etc as their justification. And most people, the laymen who missed the boat on BTC , are miserable envious poors who will celebrate other people losing their asses on it, like they already do every time it crashes. I have no BTC. I am in the top .5% of income. From here I see miserable envious poors with BTC. Funny how bias works. |
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USA
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Posted: 4/19/2024 6:22:12 PM EDT
[Last Edit: newglockster]
[#44]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Homernomer: I have no BTC. I am in the top .5% of income. From here I see miserable envious poors with BTC. Funny how bias works. Good for you buddy. |
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Posted: 4/19/2024 7:13:18 PM EDT
[#45]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By JG_Wentworth: so... bitcoin to $100k tonight? Nope. The actual date of the halving has never traditionally been all that much of a catalyst. In 2020, we had about a 15% rally in the three days coming after the halving right after dropping about the same amount in the three days prior to the halving but Bitcoin otherwise remained at the same level for the next 2 months and didn't actually "lift off" until 6 months later. 2012 and 2016 had their own nuances but in either case there was no instantaneous rally following the halving event. |
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Posted: 4/19/2024 8:00:37 PM EDT
[#46]
So did it happen?
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Posted: 4/19/2024 8:02:29 PM EDT
[#47]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By X-CaptHook: So did it happen? 2 blocks until the halving. |
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Posted: 4/19/2024 8:03:19 PM EDT
[#48]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Nosler180: 2 blocks until the halving. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Nosler180: Originally Posted By X-CaptHook: So did it happen? 2 blocks until the halving. Yep, probably well within the hour at this point. |
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Posted: 4/19/2024 8:12:34 PM EDT
[#49]
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Posted: 4/19/2024 8:16:14 PM EDT
[#50]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Nosler180: Halving happened, next one 2028. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/48922/1000010143_jpg-3192600.JPG  And now we wait again... |
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