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Posted: 3/27/2024 12:31:52 PM EDT
[#1]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Nobody reads history apparently. The US Military always devolves into a disorganized clown show…then a war kicks off and we play from behind for a year or two. Can Australia, South Korea and Japan endure during that timeline? |
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Posted: 3/27/2024 12:43:11 PM EDT
[#2]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Counter point is its only really been tried twice in a systematic way, and the technology of 2024 is very different than that of 1945. And the point isn't to completely destroy it, but do enough damage to drop its output down below the level of the US and allies. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: This part I get. No country has ever destroyed enemy manufacturing capacity with conventional bombing of any kind. It's never happened. You can strangle SLOCs to keep them from getting raw materials, which makes sense, but isn't a panacea here. Counter point is its only really been tried twice in a systematic way, and the technology of 2024 is very different than that of 1945. And the point isn't to completely destroy it, but do enough damage to drop its output down below the level of the US and allies. The problem is size. Even if we had total air superiority over mainland China, AND basing close enough intact and operable, the reality is we just don't have enough airframes and ordnance. The country is huge. The number of factories, power plants, rail terminals, etc is ridiculously enormous. We can't ramp up production fast enough to matter. |
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Posted: 3/27/2024 1:23:33 PM EDT
[#3]
Sun Tzu said...
If you are strong, make yourself appear weak. If you are weak, make yourself appear strong. If it is the former, we are asking for war. If it is the latter, we are asking for war. Sigh. |
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Posted: 3/27/2024 1:43:40 PM EDT
[#4]
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Posted: 3/27/2024 1:47:52 PM EDT
[#5]
Absolutely wild to me that we don't have Patriot BNs in the Guard as well as contract crews for some overseas missions.
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Posted: 3/27/2024 1:52:23 PM EDT
[#6]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Well, I'm sure Intel, Nvidia, AMD etc can build and staff chip plants outside of East China a lot faster and alot cheaper than DOD can do air defense. AMD and Nvidia do not have plants to build chips. AMD used to. |
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Posted: 3/27/2024 2:34:11 PM EDT
[#7]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Oh cool, all 20 we have in existence should totally handle this war for us. That’s the B-2. The B-21 is like a next generation B-2, except they plan on buying somewhere between 100 and 200 and replacing the B-1 and B-2 with them. IOC in the late 2020s. |
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Posted: 3/27/2024 3:06:45 PM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryQuoted: That’s the B-2. The B-21 is like a next generation B-2, except they plan on buying somewhere between 100 and 200 and replacing the B-1 and B-2 with them. IOC in the late 2020s. No, I was talking about the B-21. We have around a dozen, and are hoping to make 100 sometime within the 2030's. We might have 20 in a few years when China goes hot. We also have 20 B2's. |
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Posted: 3/27/2024 3:57:39 PM EDT
[#9]
Quote HistoryQuoted: No, I was talking about the B-21. We have around a dozen, and are hoping to make 100 sometime within the 2030's. We might have 20 in a few years when China goes hot. We also have 20 B2's. 6 in production, IOC in 27-28, 18-30 by 2030. Too slow, but that wasn’t my call. |
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Posted: 3/27/2024 4:04:54 PM EDT
[#10]
Quote HistoryQuoted: 6 in production, IOC in 27-28, 18-30 by 2030. Too slow, but that wasn’t my call. So, just like I said, if not even much worse. |
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Posted: 3/27/2024 4:18:24 PM EDT
[#11]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I got that from a C-17 guy, in reviewing it RAND claims that moving just the fires BN takes 36 C-17s and highlights the need to prepo or forward deploy as early as possible. IBCTs have something like 1,000 vehicles but they are mostly HMMWV/JLTV sized vs the FMTV and HEMTT based MDTF. It's probably pretty close to the number of available C-17s (not the total fleet). Or maybe he was wrong. the IBCTs had plenty of FMTV & HEMTTs, you still had a fires battalion in them, plus the special troops battalion which had plenty of heavy equipment. The BSB was bulkier because it had to support the three infantry battalions, the special troops battalion, the cav squadron, the fires battalion and the HQ The MDTF has just the fires battalion, ADA battalion and its BSB only has to support the fires battalion, ADA battalion and the HQ/MI battalion |
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Posted: 3/27/2024 4:44:53 PM EDT
[#12]
Quote HistoryQuoted: That’s the B-2. The B-21 is like a next generation B-2, except they plan on buying somewhere between 100 and 200 and replacing the B-1 and B-2 with them. IOC in the late 2020s. PLAN on buying - remember how many Seawolf and F-22 they planned on buying? https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/f-22-raptor-stealth-fighter-worth-every-penny-207620  Attached File |
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Posted: 3/27/2024 5:19:05 PM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryQuoted: the IBCTs had plenty of FMTV & HEMTTs, you still had a fires battalion in them, plus the special troops battalion which had plenty of heavy equipment. The BSB was bulkier because it had to support the three infantry battalions, the special troops battalion, the cav squadron, the fires battalion and the HQ The MDTF has just the fires battalion, ADA battalion and its BSB only has to support the fires battalion, ADA battalion and the HQ/MI battalion There are some interesting numbers in this report. |
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Posted: 3/27/2024 5:31:00 PM EDT
[#14]
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Posted: 3/27/2024 6:39:02 PM EDT
[#15]
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Posted: 3/27/2024 6:45:19 PM EDT
[#16]
That's a comment for public consumption. I'd be interested in the classified version behind closed doors. However, that does not prevent analysis of the obvious by outsiders.
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Posted: 3/27/2024 7:03:41 PM EDT
[#17]
Quote HistoryQuoted: PLAN on buying - remember how many Seawolf and F-22 they planned on buying? https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/f-22-raptor-stealth-fighter-worth-every-penny-207620 https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/459941/IMG_1960_jpeg-3171115.JPG Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: That’s the B-2. The B-21 is like a next generation B-2, except they plan on buying somewhere between 100 and 200 and replacing the B-1 and B-2 with them. IOC in the late 2020s. PLAN on buying - remember how many Seawolf and F-22 they planned on buying? https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/f-22-raptor-stealth-fighter-worth-every-penny-207620 https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/459941/IMG_1960_jpeg-3171115.JPG Correct, but with important distinctions. It’s impossible to fall back on the existing fleet now, it’s a hard sell to claim relevance without buying new bombers, and you couldn’t build a new bomber for less so it’s not like Seawolf vs. Virginia. |
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Posted: 3/27/2024 7:04:54 PM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryGiven the huge importance that Japan places on aircraft launched anti ship missiles I don’t know how realistic the Chinese are being here. |
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Posted: 3/27/2024 7:24:35 PM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryQuoted: The fact that the politicians and brass discuss war with China as a foregone conclusion should enrage the American populace. The fact that China treats war with the U.S. as a foregone conclusion should enrage the global population. |
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Posted: 3/27/2024 7:27:45 PM EDT
[#20]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Correct, but with important distinctions. It’s impossible to fall back on the existing fleet now, it’s a hard sell to claim relevance without buying new bombers, and you couldn’t build a new bomber for less so it’s not like Seawolf vs. Virginia. We’ll see, it would be wonderful if my pessimism proves unjustified |
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Posted: 3/27/2024 7:28:21 PM EDT
[#21]
Quote HistoryQuoted: The fact that the politicians and brass discuss war with China as a foregone conclusion should enrage the American populace. I'd be enraged if we weren't treating the worst case scenario possible as a foregone conclusion. |
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Posted: 3/27/2024 8:14:58 PM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I'd be enraged if we weren't treating the worst case scenario possible as a foregone conclusion. For some reason a chunk of GD thinks hope is a plan while simultaneously making claims Taiwan had 50 years to prepare for war ignoring 20 billion in weapons they paid for from us over 4 years ago but haven’t received, for which they conclude Congress 1979 Taiwan Relations act shouldn’t apply Quite a convoluted line of reasoning |
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Posted: 3/27/2024 10:13:48 PM EDT
[#23]
Quote HistoryQuoted: For some reason a chunk of GD thinks hope is a plan while simultaneously making claims Taiwan had 50 years to prepare for war ignoring 20 billion in weapons they paid for from us over 4 years ago but haven’t received, for which they conclude Congress 1979 Taiwan Relations act shouldn’t apply Quite a convoluted line of reasoning Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: I'd be enraged if we weren't treating the worst case scenario possible as a foregone conclusion. For some reason a chunk of GD thinks hope is a plan while simultaneously making claims Taiwan had 50 years to prepare for war ignoring 20 billion in weapons they paid for from us over 4 years ago but haven’t received, for which they conclude Congress 1979 Taiwan Relations act shouldn’t apply Quite a convoluted line of reasoning Do you really listen to or care what the weak minded foreign policy “dove” surrender monkey isolationists have to say about a fucking thing around here as they hide their heads in a hole or up their ass? This place has devolved into DU Lite. |
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Posted: 3/28/2024 10:11:26 AM EDT
[#24]
For those who don’t know SCMP has changed and now is like a Xinhua or Global Times lite like Asia Times it now echoes Beijing talking points
https://amp.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3256914/chinese-scientists-plan-surface-air-missile-2000km-range  Attached File Attached File |
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Posted: 3/28/2024 10:15:35 AM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Do you really listen to or care what the weak minded foreign policy “dove” surrender monkey isolationists have to say about a fucking thing around here as they hide their heads in a hole or up their ass? This place has devolved into DU Lite. No, not when what’s going on here neither matches what conservatives elsewhere and offline think about Taiwan as well as in Congress including those like JD Vance who has opposed aid to Ukraine but is strongly advocating for Taiwan. Same with Jim Jordan and a lot of the other freedom caucus. Since there’s no overlap and I’m seeing a shit load of 2023 and 2024 accounts posting in Taiwan threads, people echoing China reasoning and or talking points, no I don’t take any of it seriously |
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Posted: 3/28/2024 10:35:03 AM EDT
[#26]
Quote HistoryQuoted: No, not when what’s going on here neither matches what conservatives elsewhere and offline think about Taiwan as well as in Congress including those like JD Vance who has opposed aid to Ukraine but is strongly advocating for Taiwan. Same with Jim Jordan and a lot of the other freedom caucus. Since there’s no overlap and I’m seeing a shit load of 2023 and 2024 accounts posting in Taiwan threads, people echoing China reasoning and or talking points, no I don’t take any of it seriously Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Do you really listen to or care what the weak minded foreign policy “dove” surrender monkey isolationists have to say about a fucking thing around here as they hide their heads in a hole or up their ass? This place has devolved into DU Lite. No, not when what’s going on here neither matches what conservatives elsewhere and offline think about Taiwan as well as in Congress including those like JD Vance who has opposed aid to Ukraine but is strongly advocating for Taiwan. Same with Jim Jordan and a lot of the other freedom caucus. Since there’s no overlap and I’m seeing a shit load of 2023 and 2024 accounts posting in Taiwan threads, people echoing China reasoning and or talking points, no I don’t take any of it seriously Per the point I think you've made earlier, either in this thread or zoinks's, we're going to soon see a bunch of "principled conservatives, concerned about escalating tensions in the Western Pacific," posting on anything that sticks to the wall: "Biolabs!" "Defenders of Christian civilization and morality!" "Corrupt Democrats!" And all of the other bullshit we've seen here for the last 2 years or so on Ukraine. But with a PRC gloss. Slightly tougher for them, as no one really on the "Right" was unironically citing Global Times or Xinhua (though SCMP falling to the dark side was a bummer), like they were with Sputnik and RT, but I think the Chinese will manage. Judging by that 1500 mile SAM press release, they hire the same PR firms the DoD contractors use... It makes the Ukraine threads unreadable, and I'm sure the same will soon be true if WestPac tensions go hot. |
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Posted: 3/28/2024 11:14:22 AM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Per the point I think you've made earlier, either in this thread or zoinks's, we're going to soon see a bunch of "principled conservatives, concerned about escalating tensions in the Western Pacific," posting on anything that sticks to the wall: "Biolabs!" "Defenders of Christian civilization and morality!" "Corrupt Democrats!" And all of the other bullshit we've seen here for the last 2 years or so on Ukraine. But with a PRC gloss. Slightly tougher for them, as no one really on the "Right" was unironically citing Global Times or Xinhua (though SCMP falling to the dark side was a bummer), like they were with Sputnik and RT, but I think the Chinese will manage. Judging by that 1500 mile SAM press release, they hire the same PR firms the DoD contractors use... It makes the Ukraine threads unreadable, and I'm sure the same will soon be true if WestPac tensions go hot. Yeah I literally watched in real time the shift for SCMP and Asia Times is now like RT I mainly use the China announcements as indirect canary in the coal mine indicators of what concerns them rather than taking it at face value. Clearly it’s a signal to the US about how China feels about our bombers. Until I get corraborating evidence from other respected sources I just tuck the China claims away. The really bizarre wild claims they make from time to time I don’t even bother monitoring for down the road |
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Posted: 3/28/2024 12:42:52 PM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Taiwan actually does belong to China. Of course they talk about war because they are willing to go to war over it. We aren't, don't, and shouldn't. We just need to build our own chip manufacturing, stop buying shit from China, and mind our own business. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: The fact that the politicians and brass discuss war with China as a foregone conclusion should enrage the American populace. Why? China is discussing war with us as a forgone conclusion, and they give fuck-all what the American populace thinks about it. Taiwan actually does belong to China. Of course they talk about war because they are willing to go to war over it. We aren't, don't, and shouldn't. We just need to build our own chip manufacturing, stop buying shit from China, and mind our own business. Or China belongs to Taiwan. It depends on the viewpoint one takes. |
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Posted: 3/28/2024 12:47:18 PM EDT
[#29]
Guam, New Zealand and a whole lot of those islands will be speed bumps for the Chinese once they kick off their Pacific Tour.
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Posted: 3/28/2024 12:53:32 PM EDT
[#30]
Whole lot of panic and a whole lot of fuck-all/nothing being done to address it by expanding industrial capacity.
How'd we have won WW2 if after Pearl Harbor we just kept whistling past the graveyard as we're doing now. When our grandparents went gangbusters on building military hardware for the war. 
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Posted: 3/28/2024 12:54:28 PM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryQuoted: You’re looking at it from the bottom up and I’m looking at it from the top down. If that happens it’s the end of the United States as a superpower. Every move the Biden administration has made has been to end the US as a super power. |
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Posted: 3/28/2024 1:51:17 PM EDT
[#32]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Per the point I think you've made earlier, either in this thread or zoinks's, we're going to soon see a bunch of "principled conservatives, concerned about escalating tensions in the Western Pacific," posting on anything that sticks to the wall: "Biolabs!" "Defenders of Christian civilization and morality!" "Corrupt Democrats!" And all of the other bullshit we've seen here for the last 2 years or so on Ukraine. But with a PRC gloss. Slightly tougher for them, as no one really on the "Right" was unironically citing Global Times or Xinhua (though SCMP falling to the dark side was a bummer), like they were with Sputnik and RT, but I think the Chinese will manage. Judging by that 1500 mile SAM press release, they hire the same PR firms the DoD contractors use... It makes the Ukraine threads unreadable, and I'm sure the same will soon be true if WestPac tensions go hot. Zerohedge and I’m just not getting sleep this month but one other I can’t remember with ties to Russia is also another popular source you see threads dropping links for |
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Posted: 3/28/2024 2:41:03 PM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I know a guy that never served a single day In his life, but leverages outdated third hand info and questionable personal relationships to try and be a subject matter expert in literally every military topic posted on an internet message board. Holy shit 
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Posted: 3/28/2024 3:12:54 PM EDT
[#34]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Holy shit Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: I know a guy that never served a single day In his life, but leverages outdated third hand info and questionable personal relationships to try and be a subject matter expert in literally every military topic posted on an internet message board. Holy shit We all know d-bags like that. More than a few seem to be present here in this very thread 
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