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AL, USA
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Posted: 4/28/2024 12:57:42 PM EDT
[#1]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By wookie1562: $1k/month invested in risk-free treasuries at 5% returns 192k after 12 years. That's cash money and one doesn't have to sell or leverage their home to realize it. Lots of Americans addicted to their home value. It's just somewhere to live. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By wookie1562: Originally Posted By Kitulu: My mortgage is $2170/month on a 30 year FRM. I pay $3170/month to pay it off in 12 years rather than 30 years. There is a house down the street from me, roughly the same design and layout, that is advertised as available for rent for $1850/month. Now, 3170/month for 12 years equals out to $456,480. Yes, I know that I won't actually pay $456K for my house, due to the extra being thrown at the principle and how amortization works. According to the online calculator, I will pay roughly $403,000, after which I will own my own home at the age of 59. $1850/month for 12 years equals out to $266,400, after which the renters will still be renting, assuming that they stay in the same house for 12 years, and assuming that the LL does not increase the cost of rent in that time. $1k/month invested in risk-free treasuries at 5% returns 192k after 12 years. That's cash money and one doesn't have to sell or leverage their home to realize it. Lots of Americans addicted to their home value. It's just somewhere to live. People afraid of the stock market like real-estate because it makes sense to them. It does generate gains of about 3-6% a year, but the stock market usually beats it long term. A house to me is a place to live. Back in 2009 when I bought my first house (so glad I didn't buy 2 years earlier) if I done minimum down payment and put the rest of my down payment money invested in Amazon/Apple stock I could have bought that same house 5 times. I did everything "right" when purchasing my first home with 20% down etc. Had to sell it 3 years later and barely broke even because the housing market was just then starting to recover. Now with our current house I need all the equity I can get out of it to just buy the same damn house at another location with 2X the payment I have now due to interest rates. |
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Posted: 4/28/2024 1:46:02 PM EDT
[#2]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By memsu: People afraid of the stock market like real-estate because it makes sense to them. It does generate gains of about 3-6% a year, but the stock market usually beats it long term. A house to me is a place to live. Back in 2009 when I bought my first house (so glad I didn't buy 2 years earlier) if I done minimum down payment and put the rest of my down payment money invested in Amazon/Apple stock I could have bought that same house 5 times. I did everything "right" when purchasing my first home with 20% down etc. Had to sell it 3 years later and barely broke even because the housing market was just then starting to recover. Now with our current house I need all the equity I can get out of it to just buy the same damn house at another location with 2X the payment I have now due to interest rates. First, investment real estate returns much higher than 3-6% per year, or you are doing it wrong. So if we are comparing investing in the market or real estate, your numbers are off. Second, I agree with your point - sometimes personal use real estate does not work out. My sister is an example. They bought their first house, then moved several times for work, rolling their equity into the next home each time. However, they lost it all in the great recession when they were forced to move for work and bought at the peak and sold at the trough. That bubble in real estate was a real rare thing historically, but it sure hurt them. Now they are moving again, and basically had to start over around age 45. They will be lucky to have $100k in equity to roll to the next home, and they are moving from a LCOL to a MCOL area. That coupled with interest rates means they are looking at what we would have called "starter homes" just to stay close enough to work and out of bad areas. |
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Posted: 4/28/2024 2:24:20 PM EDT
[#3]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By wookie1562: $1k/month invested in risk-free treasuries at 5% returns 192k after 12 years. That's cash money and one doesn't have to sell or leverage their home to realize it. Lots of Americans addicted to their home value. It's just somewhere to live. I look at my home value as a housing allowance,you have to live somewhere |
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Posted: 4/28/2024 4:27:52 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Brok3n]
[#4]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Phil_Billy: As someone who lives in Las Vegas the medium home price has more than doubled in 3 short years. TBH I don't come across that many California's other then the ones visiting or they all change their license plates real quick. Really like this town but if I can't buy another rental property in the next couple years I'll invest in another location. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Phil_Billy: Originally Posted By Brok3n: Originally Posted By broken_reticle: Originally Posted By wookie1562:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GLV87ChWUAEHIep?format=jpg&name=small Investors starting to bail. And hopefully yankees going home. Hurricane insurance playing a factor too? What is up with Nevada? CA exodus? eta: https://knpr.org/show/knprs-state-of-nevada/2024-04-16/whats-the-state-of-southern-nevadas-housing-market High home prices persist in Nevada, and nobody thinks they're coming down. Jonathan Gedde, founder and CEO of Simpli Mortgage and Jerry Abbott, a real estate agent with Summit Properties, joined State of Nevada host Joe Schoenmann to talk about the topsy-turvy world of Nevada real estate. Home prices are still increasing, with the median this month at around $466,000. To afford that, household incomes need to be $111,000 or more. At the same time, Gedde said mortgage rates are at about 7.5 percent. That also represents an increase. Even so, Abbott said that hasn't stopped "droves" of Californians from coming here and buying homes. "Las Vegas is California 2.0," said Abbott. "They are without a doubt the biggest driver as to why home prices in Las Vegas have skyrocketed. When you have so many wealthy people who can pay cash, it really destroys the ability for the average person to buy a home." As someone who lives in Las Vegas the medium home price has more than doubled in 3 short years. TBH I don't come across that many California's other then the ones visiting or they all change their license plates real quick. Really like this town but if I can't buy another rental property in the next couple years I'll invest in another location. I bought my first home, a town home near Summerlin, in 2011 when the market cratered for $77k. Various estimates now value it at ~$333k.. I love my starter home but that is nuts. I'd like to buy another home and rent this one out but don't see it happening anytime this year for sure. Right now, I'm throwing more money on other investments (outside of guns and ammo  ).
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Posted: 4/29/2024 12:26:39 PM EDT
[#5]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By wookie1562: $1k/month invested in risk-free treasuries at 5% returns 192k after 12 years. That's cash money and one doesn't have to sell or leverage their home to realize it. Lots of Americans addicted to their home value. It's just somewhere to live. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By wookie1562: Originally Posted By Kitulu: My mortgage is $2170/month on a 30 year FRM. I pay $3170/month to pay it off in 12 years rather than 30 years. There is a house down the street from me, roughly the same design and layout, that is advertised as available for rent for $1850/month. Now, 3170/month for 12 years equals out to $456,480. Yes, I know that I won't actually pay $456K for my house, due to the extra being thrown at the principle and how amortization works. According to the online calculator, I will pay roughly $403,000, after which I will own my own home at the age of 59. $1850/month for 12 years equals out to $266,400, after which the renters will still be renting, assuming that they stay in the same house for 12 years, and assuming that the LL does not increase the cost of rent in that time. $1k/month invested in risk-free treasuries at 5% returns 192k after 12 years. That's cash money and one doesn't have to sell or leverage their home to realize it. Lots of Americans addicted to their home value. It's just somewhere to live. This is the part that people never understand. 2%-3% interest is free money. People paying off their mortgage early are just giving back the free money, earlier than agreed upon. It doesn't make any financial sense. |
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Posted: 4/29/2024 12:53:56 PM EDT
[#6]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Mr_Nasty99: This is the part that people never understand. 2%-3% interest is free money. People paying off their mortgage early are just giving back the free money, earlier than agreed upon. It doesn't make any financial sense. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Mr_Nasty99: Originally Posted By wookie1562: Originally Posted By Kitulu: My mortgage is $2170/month on a 30 year FRM. I pay $3170/month to pay it off in 12 years rather than 30 years. There is a house down the street from me, roughly the same design and layout, that is advertised as available for rent for $1850/month. Now, 3170/month for 12 years equals out to $456,480. Yes, I know that I won't actually pay $456K for my house, due to the extra being thrown at the principle and how amortization works. According to the online calculator, I will pay roughly $403,000, after which I will own my own home at the age of 59. $1850/month for 12 years equals out to $266,400, after which the renters will still be renting, assuming that they stay in the same house for 12 years, and assuming that the LL does not increase the cost of rent in that time. $1k/month invested in risk-free treasuries at 5% returns 192k after 12 years. That's cash money and one doesn't have to sell or leverage their home to realize it. Lots of Americans addicted to their home value. It's just somewhere to live. This is the part that people never understand. 2%-3% interest is free money. People paying off their mortgage early are just giving back the free money, earlier than agreed upon. It doesn't make any financial sense. And that landlord needs to up his game. It should be occupied and asking a higher rate. Kharn |
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Posted: 4/29/2024 1:44:00 PM EDT
[#7]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Kharn: And that landlord needs to up his game. It should be occupied and asking a higher rate. Kharn Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Kharn: Originally Posted By Mr_Nasty99: Originally Posted By wookie1562: Originally Posted By Kitulu: My mortgage is $2170/month on a 30 year FRM. I pay $3170/month to pay it off in 12 years rather than 30 years. There is a house down the street from me, roughly the same design and layout, that is advertised as available for rent for $1850/month. Now, 3170/month for 12 years equals out to $456,480. Yes, I know that I won't actually pay $456K for my house, due to the extra being thrown at the principle and how amortization works. According to the online calculator, I will pay roughly $403,000, after which I will own my own home at the age of 59. $1850/month for 12 years equals out to $266,400, after which the renters will still be renting, assuming that they stay in the same house for 12 years, and assuming that the LL does not increase the cost of rent in that time. $1k/month invested in risk-free treasuries at 5% returns 192k after 12 years. That's cash money and one doesn't have to sell or leverage their home to realize it. Lots of Americans addicted to their home value. It's just somewhere to live. This is the part that people never understand. 2%-3% interest is free money. People paying off their mortgage early are just giving back the free money, earlier than agreed upon. It doesn't make any financial sense. And that landlord needs to up his game. It should be occupied and asking a higher rate. Kharn Around here, rent hasn't increased anywhere near the rate of home values. I believe the major financial institutions are pushing rent artificially low, to squeeze private citizens out of the landlord business. |
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Posted: 4/29/2024 4:10:47 PM EDT
[#8]
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Posted: 4/29/2024 4:18:55 PM EDT
[#9]
moving for jobs sometimes doesnt pan out. beside all the money its a ton of work id prefer never to do.
im 40 years at a Company. started at 14. only place im moving to is land that i can shoot on. not jobs to make rich people richer. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By FALARAK: First, investment real estate returns much higher than 3-6% per year, or you are doing it wrong. So if we are comparing investing in the market or real estate, your numbers are off. Second, I agree with your point - sometimes personal use real estate does not work out. My sister is an example. They bought their first house, then moved several times for work, rolling their equity into the next home each time. However, they lost it all in the great recession when they were forced to move for work and bought at the peak and sold at the trough. That bubble in real estate was a real rare thing historically, but it sure hurt them. Now they are moving again, and basically had to start over around age 45. They will be lucky to have $100k in equity to roll to the next home, and they are moving from a LCOL to a MCOL area. That coupled with interest rates means they are looking at what we would have called "starter homes" just to stay close enough to work and out of bad areas. |
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Posted: 4/29/2024 4:22:25 PM EDT
[#10]
its hardly 'free' money. cheap money yea. not free. thats what to many thought it was.
now money costs alot more then it has in a long time. you want the Mans money bend over. people need to consolidate. live with older parents more etc. they will need help and its financially better. there is ways to work around stuff. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Mr_Nasty99: This is the part that people never understand. 2%-3% interest is free money. People paying off their mortgage early are just giving back the free money, earlier than agreed upon. It doesn't make any financial sense. |
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Posted: 4/29/2024 4:23:28 PM EDT
[#11]
now factor in the home insurance companies shellacking everyone.
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Posted: 4/29/2024 4:46:37 PM EDT
[#12]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By BSOG1: now factor in the home insurance companies shellacking everyone. Big time. We had 4 increases since we moved in 2017. I think we are up to double our original quite. 1-2% for maintenance and upkeep per year. Ohh you want heat? |
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Posted: 4/29/2024 5:10:51 PM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By wookie1562: $1k/month invested in risk-free treasuries at 5% returns 192k after 12 years. That's cash money and one doesn't have to sell or leverage their home to realize it. Lots of Americans addicted to their home value. It's just somewhere to live. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By wookie1562: Originally Posted By Kitulu: My mortgage is $2170/month on a 30 year FRM. I pay $3170/month to pay it off in 12 years rather than 30 years. There is a house down the street from me, roughly the same design and layout, that is advertised as available for rent for $1850/month. Now, 3170/month for 12 years equals out to $456,480. Yes, I know that I won't actually pay $456K for my house, due to the extra being thrown at the principle and how amortization works. According to the online calculator, I will pay roughly $403,000, after which I will own my own home at the age of 59. $1850/month for 12 years equals out to $266,400, after which the renters will still be renting, assuming that they stay in the same house for 12 years, and assuming that the LL does not increase the cost of rent in that time. $1k/month invested in risk-free treasuries at 5% returns 192k after 12 years. That's cash money and one doesn't have to sell or leverage their home to realize it. Lots of Americans addicted to their home value. It's just somewhere to live. I'm not addicted to my home value, I just want it paid off as soon as possible. |
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Posted: 4/29/2024 7:25:30 PM EDT
[Last Edit: mpatch]
[#14]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Silverbulletz06: . 1-2% for maintenance and upkeep per year. I know my parents are an anomaly but every year or two they do one major thing. One year could be a new roof, the next year could be windows, the next year could be redo the landscaping yada yada yada but in their neighborhood their house is in immaculate condition compared to almost everybody else's. I think 1-2% is a low number for what you should be spending on your house every year to make sure it is livable and you don't get into a position where in a short timeframe everything needs to be replaced and you can't afford it. |
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Posted: 4/29/2024 7:28:33 PM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By mpatch: You would be surprised the people that do not take care of their homes. Whether it's a $200,000 shit box or $1 million house a lot of people do not do maintenance. Then after 15-20 years the whole place is falling apart and everything needs to be replaced. I know my parents are an anomaly but every year or two they do one major thing. One year could be a new roof, the next year could be windows, the next year could be redo the landscaping yada yada yada but in their neighborhood their house is in immaculate condition compared to almost everybody else's. I think 1-2% is a low number for what you should be spending on your house every year to make sure it is livable and you don't get into a position where in a short timeframe everything needs to be replaced and you can't afford it. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By mpatch: Originally Posted By Silverbulletz06: . 1-2% for maintenance and upkeep per year. I know my parents are an anomaly but every year or two they do one major thing. One year could be a new roof, the next year could be windows, the next year could be redo the landscaping yada yada yada but in their neighborhood their house is in immaculate condition compared to almost everybody else's. I think 1-2% is a low number for what you should be spending on your house every year to make sure it is livable and you don't get into a position where in a short timeframe everything needs to be replaced and you can't afford it. I’m on the maintenance deferral plan until my dog is dead and the kids are a little older. Between the three of them they’ll re-break anything I fix. |
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Posted: 4/29/2024 8:31:57 PM EDT
[#16]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Kitulu: I'm not addicted to my home value, I just want it paid off as soon as possible. Wasn't knocking or implying anything about you at all. Apologies if it came across that way. What you shared sounds very responsible. Others spending 60% of income on a 110% LTV home in the hopes that rates drop or they rapidly appreciate though |
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FL, USA
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Posted: 4/29/2024 8:37:29 PM EDT
[#17]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By TSU45: I’m on the maintenance deferral plan until my dog is dead and the kids are a little older. Between the three of them they’ll re-break anything I fix. I feel this. We’ve been putting off a new kitchen and new floors downstairs because the kids just absolutely wreck everything. We still have little kids though, so it’s basically expected. We bought the house 5 years ago and did some basic upgrades when we moved in. And sure enough, kids have destroyed things and I’m glad we didn’t do what we wanted and remodel more. |
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Posted: 4/29/2024 8:43:23 PM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By wookie1562: Wasn't knocking or implying anything about you at all. Apologies if it came across that way. What you shared sounds very responsible. Others spending 60% of income on a 110% LTV home in the hopes that rates drop or they rapidly appreciate though Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By wookie1562: Originally Posted By Kitulu: I'm not addicted to my home value, I just want it paid off as soon as possible. Wasn't knocking or implying anything about you at all. Apologies if it came across that way. What you shared sounds very responsible. Others spending 60% of income on a 110% LTV home in the hopes that rates drop or they rapidly appreciate though Lots of people dating the rate at the moment. They don’t realize it’s a stage 10 clinger.
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Posted: 4/29/2024 11:58:43 PM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By exponentialpi: Lots of people dating the rate at the moment. They don’t realize it’s a stage 10 clinger. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By exponentialpi: Originally Posted By wookie1562: Originally Posted By Kitulu: I'm not addicted to my home value, I just want it paid off as soon as possible. Wasn't knocking or implying anything about you at all. Apologies if it came across that way. What you shared sounds very responsible. Others spending 60% of income on a 110% LTV home in the hopes that rates drop or they rapidly appreciate though Lots of people dating the rate at the moment. They don’t realize it’s a stage 10 clinger. Maybe. Maybe not.... You can pay more on the note. Not sure why more don't.... oh I know why. Cause all them new cars, credit cards and Uber eats don't pay for itself.... them points on the cabelas card though.... We effectively turned our 6.125% 30 year rate into a 2.95% 30 year rate by paying extra principal every month. Total interest dollars paid in the end would be the same. Best part, is the house will be paid for in a little under 15 years. |
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Posted: 4/30/2024 12:52:27 AM EDT
[Last Edit: BSOG1]
[#20]
my father would beat the shit out of us if we destroyed the house. times have changed. you didnt destroy anything where
we grew up. if anything was broken you answered for it. and paid the price. and most the time it was well deserved. and we never did it again. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Chrisdamage: I feel this. We’ve been putting off a new kitchen and new floors downstairs because the kids just absolutely wreck everything. We still have little kids though, so it’s basically expected. We bought the house 5 years ago and did some basic upgrades when we moved in. And sure enough, kids have destroyed things and I’m glad we didn’t do what we wanted and remodel more. |
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Posted: 4/30/2024 12:57:41 AM EDT
[#21]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By BSOG1: my father would beat the shit out of us if we destroyed the house. times have changed. you didnt destroy anything where we grew up. if anything was broken you answered for it. and paid the price. and most the time it was well deserved. and we never did it again. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By BSOG1: my father would beat the shit out of us if we destroyed the house. times have changed. you didnt destroy anything where we grew up. if anything was broken you answered for it. and paid the price. and most the time it was well deserved. and we never did it again. Originally Posted By Chrisdamage: I feel this. We’ve been putting off a new kitchen and new floors downstairs because the kids just absolutely wreck everything. We still have little kids though, so it’s basically expected. We bought the house 5 years ago and did some basic upgrades when we moved in. And sure enough, kids have destroyed things and I’m glad we didn’t do what we wanted and remodel more. No shit. My kids have never damaged a thing in my home, and they are now 10. They know the consequences. |
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Posted: 4/30/2024 1:02:30 AM EDT
[#22]
uber eats lol.. people love stuff, love to spend. not my problem. it will be theirs.
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By rfoxtrot: Maybe. Maybe not.... You can pay more on the note. Not sure why more don't.... oh I know why. Cause all them new cars, credit cards and Uber eats don't pay for itself.... them points on the cabelas card though.... We effectively turned our 6.125% 30 year rate into a 2.95% 30 year rate by paying extra principal every month. Total interest dollars paid in the end would be the same. Best part, is the house will be paid for in a little under 15 years. |
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Posted: 4/30/2024 1:10:12 AM EDT
[Last Edit: BSOG1]
[#23]
we grew up pretty strict. went to bed earlier then the neighbor kids etc. at the time it sucked.
but it all makes sense now. he pounded in our heads dont get screwed by the sharks out there all our lives. people are in for some rude awakenings. he would go bonkers if we destroyed the place we lived in he worked so hard for. it doesnt make sense. but what do i know these days ...modern parenting is different. my father retired at 47. no big apple tesla stocks etc. He saved for it. he is 80 now and still getting around keeping busy. still takes care of the house, his truck etc. he bought one new vehicle his whole life in 2010. a Silverado. paid cash. you should hear what he has to say about modern parents and how they operate their finances. he never owed anyone a dime. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By FALARAK: No shit. My kids have never damaged a thing in my home, and they are now 10. They know the consequences. |
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Posted: 4/30/2024 10:42:13 AM EDT
[#24]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By rfoxtrot: Maybe. Maybe not.... You can pay more on the note. Not sure why more don't.... oh I know why. Cause all them new cars, credit cards and Uber eats don't pay for itself.... them points on the cabelas card though.... We effectively turned our 6.125% 30 year rate into a 2.95% 30 year rate by paying extra principal every month. Total interest dollars paid in the end would be the same. Best part, is the house will be paid for in a little under 15 years. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By rfoxtrot: Originally Posted By exponentialpi: Originally Posted By wookie1562: Originally Posted By Kitulu: I'm not addicted to my home value, I just want it paid off as soon as possible. Wasn't knocking or implying anything about you at all. Apologies if it came across that way. What you shared sounds very responsible. Others spending 60% of income on a 110% LTV home in the hopes that rates drop or they rapidly appreciate though Lots of people dating the rate at the moment. They don’t realize it’s a stage 10 clinger. Maybe. Maybe not.... You can pay more on the note. Not sure why more don't.... oh I know why. Cause all them new cars, credit cards and Uber eats don't pay for itself.... them points on the cabelas card though.... We effectively turned our 6.125% 30 year rate into a 2.95% 30 year rate by paying extra principal every month. Total interest dollars paid in the end would be the same. Best part, is the house will be paid for in a little under 15 years. |
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Posted: 4/30/2024 12:24:20 PM EDT
[#25]
I know everyone here already has the numbers down pat. I thought this was good because sometimes seeing someone else actually 'run' the numbers can be an eye opener.
Basically you need to be somewhere around $140-$150K combined income to buy the average $400K house. Should be required viewing for anyone thinking about buying a house.*  How Much Home You Can ACTUALLY Afford in 2024 (By Salary) *Except GeeDeers, who are all multi-millionaires with supermodel trophy wives. |
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Posted: 4/30/2024 5:04:34 PM EDT
[#26]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By BSOG1: its hardly 'free' money. cheap money yea. not free. thats what to many thought it was. now money costs alot more then it has in a long time. you want the Mans money bend over. people need to consolidate. live with older parents more etc. they will need help and its financially better. there is ways to work around stuff. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By BSOG1: its hardly 'free' money. cheap money yea. not free. thats what to many thought it was. now money costs alot more then it has in a long time. you want the Mans money bend over. people need to consolidate. live with older parents more etc. they will need help and its financially better. there is ways to work around stuff. Originally Posted By Mr_Nasty99: This is the part that people never understand. 2%-3% interest is free money. People paying off their mortgage early are just giving back the free money, earlier than agreed upon. It doesn't make any financial sense. 2% is pretty much free money when the market is doing double digit returns. And I do agree that our society needs to go back to families living and working together. Our whole mentality about pushing the kids out of the house and financially abandoning them as early as possible, makes no sense at all. It drives down wages and creates desperate employees that will tolerate shitty work environments. |
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Posted: 5/1/2024 3:16:22 AM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By LesBaer45: I know everyone here already has the numbers down pat. I thought this was good because sometimes seeing someone else actually 'run' the numbers can be an eye opener. Basically you need to be somewhere around $140-$150K combined income to buy the average $400K house. Should be required viewing for anyone thinking about buying a house.*  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RJEk9mG5JHM*Except GeeDeers, who are all multi-millionaires with supermodel trophy wives. Thanks for posting. * It’s Especially important viewing for Arfmillionairs. You don’t get wealthy, or stay wealthy, by being stupid, complacent, or careless. |
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Posted: 5/3/2024 1:55:21 PM EDT
[#28]
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Posted: 5/3/2024 3:41:23 PM EDT
[#29]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By wookie1562: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/01/why-hundreds-of-us-banks-may-be-at-risk-of-failure.html  “$962 BILLION Due” - Nearly 300 Banks Could FAIL Due to Collapse of Commercial Real Estate |
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NPL
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Posted: 5/3/2024 3:45:49 PM EDT
[#30]
What's the best way to make money off the impending commerical real estate bust?
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Posted: 5/3/2024 5:23:01 PM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 4thbreak: What's the best way to make money off the impending commerical real estate bust? At this point, it's too big to fail. |
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Posted: 5/3/2024 5:31:56 PM EDT
[#32]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 4thbreak: What's the best way to make money off the impending commerical real estate bust? Find a commercial real estate banker and start banging his wife. He doesn't have time. |
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Posted: 5/3/2024 6:31:31 PM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 4thbreak: What's the best way to make money off the impending commerical real estate bust? It's a big club and you're not in it. Banks will beg congress and the fed for a bailout, banks will renegotiate loans, write off the difference or they'll take the property and sit on it while using fed money at near 0 rates to float themselves. Then sell a one at a time making a killing. |
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Posted: 5/3/2024 6:46:06 PM EDT
[#34]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By wookie1562:
That's bullshit. $4400 is the 30 year payment on a $600,000 home with taxes and insurance and you are sure as hell are not renting a house that expensive for $2500. |
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Posted: 5/3/2024 7:16:39 PM EDT
[#35]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Firearmsenthusiast: That's bullshit. $4400 is the 30 year payment on a $600,000 home with taxes and insurance and you are sure as hell are not renting a house that expensive for $2500. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Firearmsenthusiast: Originally Posted By wookie1562:
That's bullshit. $4400 is the 30 year payment on a $600,000 home with taxes and insurance and you are sure as hell are not renting a house that expensive for $2500. I posted this exact example a few pages ago. 2 houses a block apart. One sale $700k, the other rental for $2800. Not BS at all. |
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Posted: 5/4/2024 1:15:14 AM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Mr_Nasty99: This is the part that people never understand. 2%-3% interest is free money. People paying off their mortgage early are just giving back the free money, earlier than agreed upon. It doesn't make any financial sense. I preached this to family and friends when mortgage rates were 2.5%. Borrow as much as you can and leverage it for a higher return. Also have a few people who constantly tell me how they don’t want a home loan so paying off low rate mortgages. We might never see that cheap money again |
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Posted: 5/4/2024 1:29:26 AM EDT
[#37]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 4thbreak: What's the best way to make money off the impending commerical real estate bust? Bet on the inevitable bail out? |
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Posted: 5/4/2024 1:35:34 AM EDT
[#38]
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Posted: 5/4/2024 11:17:25 AM EDT
[#39]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Firearmsenthusiast: That's bullshit. $4400 is the 30 year payment on a $600,000 home with taxes and insurance and you are sure as hell are not renting a house that expensive for $2500. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Firearmsenthusiast: Originally Posted By wookie1562:
That's bullshit. $4400 is the 30 year payment on a $600,000 home with taxes and insurance and you are sure as hell are not renting a house that expensive for $2500. Thing is, that 600-700k house is going to be a million dollar property sooner than later. Is it expensive? Hell yes it is. But I kinda doubt shits going to get any cheaper. Hasn't yet. It's only accelerating in cost. Rental pricing isn't a clean cut indicator. Some rents move slower than others. Some properties can't command the high rent. Others absolutely do. We're going to look back in ten years and think that 700k house was "cheap". |
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Posted: 5/4/2024 11:27:26 AM EDT
[Last Edit: rfoxtrot]
[#40]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By stretch415: I preached this to family and friends when mortgage rates were 2.5%. Borrow as much as you can and leverage it for a higher return. Also have a few people who constantly tell me how they don’t want a home loan so paying off low rate mortgages. We might never see that cheap money again I don't think we'll ever see money that cheap again in at least the next 25 years. All the baby boomers have to age out first. It's all going to depend on how they do their succession/estate planning. Based on what I've seen so far in my small world, the group aging out doesn't seem super big on transferring their wealth down as much as their successors before them. If they go full middle finger as a group, it's going to be interesting to see what happens in capital markets in the next generation. My bet is by and large they burn it all. Let the kids bootstrap harder. By then the costs of the assets are going to be incredible. Corporate outfits will hold much of it through reverse mortgage on the residential side. The businesses get sold to more corporate overloads in the game of eat or be eaten. Money gets spent at the villages.... "fuck your avocado toast you grey haired well into your 40s and 50s grandparent elder millennials" is going to be the song sang. They like to talk about "family" as a generation, but their actions don't seem to indicate that they are serious about generational wealth. Again my view is small and mostly rooted in agricultural situations. |
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Posted: 5/4/2024 12:46:32 PM EDT
[Last Edit: OregonShooter]
[#41]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By rfoxtrot: I don't think we'll ever see money that cheap again in at least the next 25 years. All the baby boomers have to age out first. It's all going to depend on how they do their succession/estate planning. Based on what I've seen so far in my small world, the group aging out doesn't seem super big on transferring their wealth down as much as their successors before them. If they go full middle finger as a group, it's going to be interesting to see what happens in capital markets in the next generation. My bet is by and large they burn it all. Let the kids bootstrap harder. By then the costs of the assets are going to be incredible. Corporate outfits will hold much of it through reverse mortgage on the residential side. The businesses get sold to more corporate overloads in the game of eat or be eaten. Money gets spent at the villages.... "fuck your avocado toast you grey haired well into your 40s and 50s grandparent elder millennials" is going to be the song sang. They like to talk about "family" as a generation, but their actions don't seem to indicate that they are serious about generational wealth. Again my view is small and mostly rooted in agricultural situations. Prices are crashing  Attached FileI also see a lot of boomers unwilling to let go of anything. Wife has a church friend that said fuck it and went to work for UPS after finding out he wouldn't inherit the family farm after working for his parents for free for a decade and holding a part time job on the side to pay bills. |
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Posted: 5/7/2024 11:03:28 PM EDT
[Last Edit: rfoxtrot]
[#42]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By OregonShooter: Prices are crashing https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/76/sale_price_JPG-3205365.JPG I also see a lot of boomers unwilling to let go of anything. Wife has a church friend that said fuck it and went to work for UPS after finding out he wouldn't inherit the family farm after working for his parents for free for a decade and holding a part time job on the side to pay bills. Big price drop I see on that mls!!!! A whopping $25k! that's about enough money for a new Jennair or kitchen aid setup at least! Crazy.... 1.1 million dollars for that property. Good grief.  Attached FileMan, I see it every day in my work. It sucks a lot. It rips families apart. It causes fathers and sons to not talk for a long time.....The whole boomers unwilling to let go of anything. I'd say it's about five to six times out of eight I see that shit.....Even if it means they burn it up... Lots of guys in the 68-85 year range gonna send it till they kick the bucket on the farm. No planning. No succession. Nothing. If they can't have it no one in the family will..... it's nuts. Multimillion dollar assets in the 10 and 11 digit range and they treat and pout over like a kids toy. This is basically how it would sound if they said the quiet part out loud........: "We want you to have it! Cause family! And the fact we didn't plan for jack shit..... them estate guys wanted like $5k to talk to them. That's too much money..... [leans on tax prescription super duty that cost about $94k]....But, ya all have to buy us out full tilt $20k per acre plus...... " "we know you were basically an employee your whole life and we did the gift thing as part of your wages..... what's that, you can't qualify cause you only showed 22k worth of income the last umpteen years and you have no real savings? And the bank wants a co sign and 45% down???? Shit I bought my first farm with pipe moving money one summer. Surely you can do better than that????? Well maybe if you don't spend that $3500 for that week in Mexico to keep that bride of yours happy you could afford this 8.7 million dollar deal that we can't afford to sell because we depreciated our way to prosperity....." |
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Posted: 5/8/2024 12:03:04 AM EDT
[#43]
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NV, USA
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Posted: 5/8/2024 12:18:57 AM EDT
[#44]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By wookie1562:
So when you move out they refund all your rent money? As usual I A. Doubt those figures for housing and B. Renting when you can buy still makes zero sense. You lose equity and you lose any chance of getting any money back when you choose to move. You keep repeating this mantra and it still makes zero financial sense. |
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Posted: 5/8/2024 12:24:09 AM EDT
[#45]
Florida house saga.
Mom and her idiot boyfriend decided to sell her place in Florida(Port Charlotte) and move closer to my Brother in Huntsville,Al. I spend most summers in the area so I probably didn't help...🤪 Anyhow...home purchased in 2017 for about 175ish. Appraised at 450. First offer 505k. 😁 Accepted. 3 weeks in financing fell through. Next highest offer 470k. Accepted. 2 weeks in financing fell through. Next offer 450k. A couple of days before closing the buyer left the country? No additional information from anyone. That was roughly Christmas to current In the last 6 weeks they have had a couple of showings and no offers. There are a LOT of for sale signs in both hers and my neighborhood. Talking with my realtor/neighbor she mentioned sales slowed and then just sorta stopped.... It's getting interesting now. |
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NV, USA
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Posted: 5/8/2024 1:09:20 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Phil_Billy]
[#46]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By wookie1562: I posted this exact example a few pages ago. 2 houses a block apart. One sale $700k, the other rental for $2800. Not BS at all. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By wookie1562: Originally Posted By Firearmsenthusiast: Originally Posted By wookie1562:
That's bullshit. $4400 is the 30 year payment on a $600,000 home with taxes and insurance and you are sure as hell are not renting a house that expensive for $2500. I posted this exact example a few pages ago. 2 houses a block apart. One sale $700k, the other rental for $2800. Not BS at all. You found one example so that makes it correct? I doubt that's correct they would be losing thousands every month if that were the case. There is no way you are renting a house for half of the mortgage cost. That makes zero financial sense. Why do I get the feeling you are one of those people who offers half and can never figure out why no one has ever accepted your offer. Lol this thread is pure comedy can we get Tooter back too? |
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HI, USA
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Posted: 5/8/2024 2:04:05 AM EDT
[#47]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Firearmsenthusiast: That's bullshit. $4400 is the 30 year payment on a $600,000 home with taxes and insurance and you are sure as hell are not renting a house that expensive for $2500. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Firearmsenthusiast: Originally Posted By wookie1562:
That's bullshit. $4400 is the 30 year payment on a $600,000 home with taxes and insurance and you are sure as hell are not renting a house that expensive for $2500. I rent a more expensive place than that for quite a bit less than that payment, so they do exist. Price to income ratio is completely out of balance, even more so than the last bubble. Factoring in tax considerations and opportunity cost of the down payment it's absurd  . Arguing that it's not a bubble and that prices can't go down is just more mass psychosis. During the last bubble there was less data as the media (newspapers) and the RE industry controlled it more and the bubble itself wasn't as crazy or as widespread geographically so being one of the few to call it and sell near the peak took some balls (And a lot of hunting for statistics) but I was never one to go with the crowd. |
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HI, USA
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Posted: 5/8/2024 2:32:16 AM EDT
[#48]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 4thbreak: What's the best way to make money off the impending commerical real estate bust? Impending? It's been underway for the past 2-3 years. If I had a gun to my head and I had to put money in RE I'd look for a deal in commercial rather than overpriced residential RE. Even with WFH and a sinking economy people still will want to get out and socialize. Buy a building in a non third world area and have someone who wants to run a bar have at it. Or a small shopping center near a good school and have a laundromat in there, rent the other places out to people who want to have a Mexican restaurant, coffee shop, etc. You make your profit when you buy so you need to get 50-75% off peak price in the last 8 years but in 5 you should be sitting pretty well. |
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USA
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Posted: 5/8/2024 3:00:38 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Isenhelm]
[#49]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Phil_Billy: You found one example so that makes it correct? I doubt that's correct they would be losing thousands every month if that were the case. There is no way you are renting a house for half of the mortgage cost. That makes zero financial sense. Why do I get the feeling you are one of those people who offers half and can never figure out why no one has ever accepted your offer. Lol this thread is pure comedy can we get Tooter back too? The current owner of a rental property is not paying that mortgage unless they just purchased under such terms. Which seems pretty unlikely. Landlords who bought a decade or more ago most likely have much lower mortgage payments if any. |
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Posted: 5/8/2024 7:12:01 AM EDT
[#50]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Phil_Billy: So when you move out they refund all your rent money? As usual I A. Doubt those figures for housing and B. Renting when you can buy still makes zero sense. You lose equity and you lose any chance of getting any money back when you choose to move. You keep repeating this mantra and it still makes zero financial sense. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Phil_Billy: Originally Posted By wookie1562:
So when you move out they refund all your rent money? As usual I A. Doubt those figures for housing and B. Renting when you can buy still makes zero sense. You lose equity and you lose any chance of getting any money back when you choose to move. You keep repeating this mantra and it still makes zero financial sense. Housing prices only go up!
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