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Posted: 10/25/2016 12:08:57 PM EDT
[#1]
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Posted: 10/25/2016 12:09:43 PM EDT
[#2]
RCP avg also shows 5 pts behind.
Did he talk about electoral college? |
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Posted: 10/25/2016 12:10:07 PM EDT
[#3]
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Posted: 10/25/2016 12:10:26 PM EDT
[#4]
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Posted: 10/25/2016 12:12:28 PM EDT
[#5]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
RCP avg also shows 5 pts behind. Did he talk about electoral college? No. He is in involved in the top of the healthcare area of the team, he was told this information by the political side of the transition team. He did not mention a date on this info either but I can imagine it is very recent given he is on the team. This guy is a good man, I trust him completely. |
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Posted: 10/25/2016 12:18:41 PM EDT
[#6]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
No. He is in involved in the top of the healthcare area of the team, he was told this information by the political side of the transition team. He did not mention a date on this info either but I can imagine it is very recent given he is on the team. This guy is a good man, I trust him completely. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
RCP avg also shows 5 pts behind. Did he talk about electoral college? No. He is in involved in the top of the healthcare area of the team, he was told this information by the political side of the transition team. He did not mention a date on this info either but I can imagine it is very recent given he is on the team. This guy is a good man, I trust him completely. No, GD will assure us he's a Hillary shill. ETA: As are you. |
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Posted: 10/25/2016 12:24:26 PM EDT
[#7]
I bet your "buddy" will really appreciate you leaking internal polling data.
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Posted: 10/25/2016 12:26:25 PM EDT
[#8]
Quoted:
Trumps internal polling shows he is behind by 5, please get out and vote. The guy I spoke to obviously can't speak for Trump himself, but he (the guy on the transition team) is worried. PLEASE VOTE, DON'T STAY HOME, WE CAN DEFEAT THE WITCH. If he is sharing it outside the internal team then he is a rat bitch, and Trump needs to ferret this person out and kill them off. |
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Posted: 10/25/2016 12:30:08 PM EDT
[#9]
I just spoke to my friend on Trump's transition team, and he said your friend is wrong.
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Posted: 10/25/2016 12:30:15 PM EDT
[#10]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
If he is sharing it outside the internal team then he is a rat bitch, and Trump needs to ferret this person out and kill them off. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Trumps internal polling shows he is behind by 5, please get out and vote. The guy I spoke to obviously can't speak for Trump himself, but he (the guy on the transition team) is worried. PLEASE VOTE, DON'T STAY HOME, WE CAN DEFEAT THE WITCH. If he is sharing it outside the internal team then he is a rat bitch, and Trump needs to ferret this person out and kill them off. with a gunshot tot eh back of the head as head kneels in the streeT |
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Posted: 10/25/2016 12:30:49 PM EDT
[#11]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
If he is sharing it outside the internal team then he is a rat bitch, and Trump needs to ferret this person out and kill them off. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Trumps internal polling shows he is behind by 5, please get out and vote. The guy I spoke to obviously can't speak for Trump himself, but he (the guy on the transition team) is worried. PLEASE VOTE, DON'T STAY HOME, WE CAN DEFEAT THE WITCH. If he is sharing it outside the internal team then he is a rat bitch, and Trump needs to ferret this person out and kill them off. If he is even telling the truth. So far voting in FL and AZ say he is probably in the lead. |
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Posted: 10/25/2016 12:39:29 PM EDT
[#12]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
If he is even telling the truth. So far voting in FL and AZ say he is probably in the lead. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Trumps internal polling shows he is behind by 5, please get out and vote. The guy I spoke to obviously can't speak for Trump himself, but he (the guy on the transition team) is worried. PLEASE VOTE, DON'T STAY HOME, WE CAN DEFEAT THE WITCH. If he is sharing it outside the internal team then he is a rat bitch, and Trump needs to ferret this person out and kill them off. If he is even telling the truth. So far voting in FL and AZ say he is probably in the lead. This person has no reason to lie. For those who are going to cry about a "leak" that's fine if it were vastly different that RCP or classified info but get real. But its the same as public numbers, which leads me to believe at least some national polls are correct. It was not shared with me in confidence, there were others around the conversation. |
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Posted: 10/25/2016 12:42:31 PM EDT
[#13]
Quoted:
Trumps internal polling shows he is behind by 5, please get out and vote. The guy I spoke to obviously can't speak for Trump himself, but he (the guy on the transition team) is worried. PLEASE VOTE, DON'T STAY HOME, WE CAN DEFEAT THE WITCH. Voting is not enough. you have to be attacking Hillary on YOUR social media as well. |
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Posted: 10/25/2016 12:43:22 PM EDT
[#14]
Trump has literally won already, we are just waiting to vote.
Not just by a little either but bigly. I made this realization several weeks ago. Can't wait for the butthurt to flow, it's going to be glorious. Quoted:
Trumps internal polling shows he is behind by 5, please get out and vote. The guy I spoke to obviously can't speak for Trump himself, but he (the guy on the transition team) is worried. PLEASE VOTE, DON'T STAY HOME, WE CAN DEFEAT THE WITCH. |
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Posted: 10/25/2016 12:47:42 PM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Voting is not enough. you have to be attacking Hillary on YOUR social media as well. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Trumps internal polling shows he is behind by 5, please get out and vote. The guy I spoke to obviously can't speak for Trump himself, but he (the guy on the transition team) is worried. PLEASE VOTE, DON'T STAY HOME, WE CAN DEFEAT THE WITCH. Voting is not enough. you have to be attacking Hillary on YOUR social media as well. THIS RIGHT HERE! I plan on making it my job in the days leading up to the election of passing along the truth about FHRC. 
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Posted: 10/25/2016 12:49:56 PM EDT
[#16]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
This person has no reason to lie. For those who are going to cry about a "leak" that's fine if it were vastly different that RCP or classified info but get real. But its the same as public numbers, which leads me to believe at least some national polls are correct. It was not shared with me in confidence, there were others around the conversation. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Trumps internal polling shows he is behind by 5, please get out and vote. The guy I spoke to obviously can't speak for Trump himself, but he (the guy on the transition team) is worried. PLEASE VOTE, DON'T STAY HOME, WE CAN DEFEAT THE WITCH. If he is sharing it outside the internal team then he is a rat bitch, and Trump needs to ferret this person out and kill them off. If he is even telling the truth. So far voting in FL and AZ say he is probably in the lead. This person has no reason to lie. For those who are going to cry about a "leak" that's fine if it were vastly different that RCP or classified info but get real. But its the same as public numbers, which leads me to believe at least some national polls are correct. It was not shared with me in confidence, there were others around the conversation. Was this just for CT? |
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Posted: 10/25/2016 1:00:54 PM EDT
[#17]
Everyone needs to remember the Brexit. Farage thought he had lost based on polling before the final results were in.
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Posted: 10/25/2016 1:03:58 PM EDT
[#18]
Up or down, don't care. Still voting tomorrow, still trashing Hillary and mocking her supporters wherever I find them.
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Posted: 10/25/2016 1:04:33 PM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Everyone needs to remember the Brexit. Farage thought he had lost based on polling before the final results were in. How far off was Brexit polling? I used 4% to build my maps in this thread; http://www.ar15.com/forums/t_1_5/1922576_Trumps_path_s__to_win_.html I believe 4% was how far off Brexit was, FWIW, that map stays the same through a 6% change in favor of Trump. |
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Posted: 10/25/2016 1:05:41 PM EDT
[#20]
Quoted:
Trumps internal polling shows he is behind by 5, please get out and vote. The guy I spoke to obviously can't speak for Trump himself, but he (the guy on the transition team) is worried. PLEASE VOTE, DON'T STAY HOME, WE CAN DEFEAT THE WITCH. And your have a connection to his team how again? |
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Posted: 10/25/2016 1:05:49 PM EDT
[#21]
Down by 5 where?
Connecticut? I'm OK with that. |
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Posted: 10/25/2016 1:07:21 PM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
How far off was Brexit polling? I used 4% to build my maps in this thread; http://www.ar15.com/forums/t_1_5/1922576_Trumps_path_s__to_win_.html I believe 4% was how far off Brexit was, FWIW, that map stays the same through a 6% change in favor of Trump. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Everyone needs to remember the Brexit. Farage thought he had lost based on polling before the final results were in. I used 4% to build my maps in this thread; http://www.ar15.com/forums/t_1_5/1922576_Trumps_path_s__to_win_.html I believe 4% was how far off Brexit was, FWIW, that map stays the same through a 6% change in favor of Trump. 
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Posted: 10/25/2016 1:10:59 PM EDT
[#23]
If that is strictly an insider poll of CT, then I am happy with those numbers.
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Posted: 10/25/2016 1:11:57 PM EDT
[#24]
In before
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Posted: 10/25/2016 1:12:21 PM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryQuoted: How far off was Brexit polling? I used 4% to build my maps in this thread; http://www.ar15.com/forums/t_1_5/1922576_Trumps_path_s__to_win_.html I believe 4% was how far off Brexit was, FWIW, that map stays the same through a 6% change in favor of Trump. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Everyone needs to remember the Brexit. Farage thought he had lost based on polling before the final results were in. I used 4% to build my maps in this thread; http://www.ar15.com/forums/t_1_5/1922576_Trumps_path_s__to_win_.html I believe 4% was how far off Brexit was, FWIW, that map stays the same through a 6% change in favor of Trump. |
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Posted: 10/25/2016 1:13:35 PM EDT
[#26]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I just spoke to my friend on Trump's transition team, and he said your friend is wrong. +1 Internal polling shows Trump is neck and neck with Hillary. Anyone here who decides to stay home is basically handing the election to Hillary. This election is ours to lose. |
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Posted: 10/25/2016 1:20:23 PM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Was this just for CT? Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Trumps internal polling shows he is behind by 5, please get out and vote. The guy I spoke to obviously can't speak for Trump himself, but he (the guy on the transition team) is worried. PLEASE VOTE, DON'T STAY HOME, WE CAN DEFEAT THE WITCH. If he is sharing it outside the internal team then he is a rat bitch, and Trump needs to ferret this person out and kill them off. If he is even telling the truth. So far voting in FL and AZ say he is probably in the lead. This person has no reason to lie. For those who are going to cry about a "leak" that's fine if it were vastly different that RCP or classified info but get real. But its the same as public numbers, which leads me to believe at least some national polls are correct. It was not shared with me in confidence, there were others around the conversation. Was this just for CT? National from what I understood. Everyone believe what they want, I believe this guy. Just get out and vote. |
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Posted: 10/25/2016 1:23:18 PM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryQuoted: This person has no reason to lie. For those who are going to cry about a "leak" that's fine if it were vastly different that RCP or classified info but get real. But its the same as public numbers, which leads me to believe at least some national polls are correct. It was not shared with me in confidence, there were others around the conversation. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Trumps internal polling shows he is behind by 5, please get out and vote. The guy I spoke to obviously can't speak for Trump himself, but he (the guy on the transition team) is worried. PLEASE VOTE, DON'T STAY HOME, WE CAN DEFEAT THE WITCH. If he is sharing it outside the internal team then he is a rat bitch, and Trump needs to ferret this person out and kill them off. If he is even telling the truth. So far voting in FL and AZ say he is probably in the lead. This person has no reason to lie. For those who are going to cry about a "leak" that's fine if it were vastly different that RCP or classified info but get real. But its the same as public numbers, which leads me to believe at least some national polls are correct. It was not shared with me in confidence, there were others around the conversation. The same numbers that have been oversampled and questionable? |
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Posted: 10/25/2016 1:29:50 PM EDT
[#29]
This could be a close one, guys. EVERYONE needs to vote.
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Posted: 10/25/2016 1:30:20 PM EDT
[#30]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
The same numbers that have been oversampled and questionable? Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Trumps internal polling shows he is behind by 5, please get out and vote. The guy I spoke to obviously can't speak for Trump himself, but he (the guy on the transition team) is worried. PLEASE VOTE, DON'T STAY HOME, WE CAN DEFEAT THE WITCH. If he is sharing it outside the internal team then he is a rat bitch, and Trump needs to ferret this person out and kill them off. If he is even telling the truth. So far voting in FL and AZ say he is probably in the lead. This person has no reason to lie. For those who are going to cry about a "leak" that's fine if it were vastly different that RCP or classified info but get real. But its the same as public numbers, which leads me to believe at least some national polls are correct. It was not shared with me in confidence, there were others around the conversation. The same numbers that have been oversampled and questionable? Take it for what you will. All I am sharing is what I was told by an insider. Believe what you want. |
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Posted: 10/25/2016 1:32:02 PM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I just spoke to my friend on Trump's transition team, and he said your friend is wrong. I just listened to the voice in my head and Trump will win it. My vote has not been cast yet but it will soon. |
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Posted: 10/25/2016 1:33:14 PM EDT
[#32]
I'm calling BS. The polls are being oversampled in almost every case I've looked at. So... she's leading in North Carolina by 3%. Dems are getting over sampled by 4%.
The network polls are the worst but I've seen it in almost every poll I've looked at. |
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Posted: 10/25/2016 1:41:18 PM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I'm calling BS. The polls are being oversampled in almost every case I've looked at. So... she's leading in North Carolina by 3%. Dems are getting over sampled by 4%. The network polls are the worst but I've seen it in almost every poll I've looked at. |
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Posted: 10/25/2016 1:47:35 PM EDT
[#34]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Take it for what you will. All I am sharing is what I was told by an insider. Believe what you want. Well I don't believe 1. Polls that have been PROVEN to be oversampled to one side 2. A random guy on the internet claiming to have info from someone who heard it from someone else. |
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Posted: 10/25/2016 1:53:51 PM EDT
[#35]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
+1 Internal polling shows Trump is neck and neck with Hillary. Anyone here who decides to stay home is basically handing the election to Hillary. This election is ours to lose. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
I just spoke to my friend on Trump's transition team, and he said your friend is wrong. +1 Internal polling shows Trump is neck and neck with Hillary. Anyone here who decides to stay home is basically handing the election to Hillary. This election is ours to lose. Not when you are in a state that doesn't matter I'm not staying home but every time I vote I feel as though I am wasting my time.
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Posted: 10/25/2016 1:54:47 PM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
How far off is the average oversample? Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
I'm calling BS. The polls are being oversampled in almost every case I've looked at. So... she's leading in North Carolina by 3%. Dems are getting over sampled by 4%. The network polls are the worst but I've seen it in almost every poll I've looked at. I've seen 19-25-ish%. |
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Posted: 10/25/2016 1:59:17 PM EDT
[#37]
I am doing my part. Will drag 3 voters to election day to vote for Trump. Unfortunately it will not matter in communist occupied Illinois. I'm so distrustful that I will not even vote early. Gives the crooked machine more time to erase my vote. The corrupt politicians need to be tarred and feathered. In 2016 America this shouldn't even be a concern.
You guys in Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Colorado, and NC, can be the heroes. |
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Posted: 10/25/2016 1:59:38 PM EDT
[#38]
It isn't just the extra number of Dems in the polls, it is the stupid high turnout for Dems they are expecting. Hillary is not going to get Obama numbers.
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Posted: 10/25/2016 2:23:55 PM EDT
[#39]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
It isn't just the extra number of Dems in the polls, it is the stupid high turnout for Dems they are expecting. Hillary is not going to get Obama numbers. Obama didn't even get Obama numbers in 2012. |
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Posted: 10/25/2016 2:26:18 PM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryQuoted: This made me laugh. Quote HistoryCool story bro |
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Posted: 10/25/2016 2:30:35 PM EDT
[#41]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I'm calling BS. The polls are being oversampled in almost every case I've looked at. So... she's leading in North Carolina by 3%. Dems are getting over sampled by 4%. The network polls are the worst but I've seen it in almost every poll I've looked at. What do you mean by over sampled? Where do you find information on the different sampling strategies? |
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Posted: 10/25/2016 2:32:01 PM EDT
[#42]
Quote HistoryQuoted: National from what I understood. National polling is useless data, it comes down to states and the electoral college. Remember how Al Gore won the popular vote nationally? If your friend said Trump is: Behind in Florida by 5, behind in Georgia by 3, and behind in Ohio by 6 then that would be data we can use. |
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Posted: 10/25/2016 2:33:40 PM EDT
[#43]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
What do you mean by over sampled? Where do you find information on the different sampling strategies? Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
I'm calling BS. The polls are being oversampled in almost every case I've looked at. So... she's leading in North Carolina by 3%. Dems are getting over sampled by 4%. The network polls are the worst but I've seen it in almost every poll I've looked at. What do you mean by over sampled? Where do you find information on the different sampling strategies? look at the breakdown of the polls, do some math, profit. |
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Posted: 10/25/2016 2:34:03 PM EDT
[#44]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
What do you mean by over sampled? Where do you find information on the different sampling strategies? Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
I'm calling BS. The polls are being oversampled in almost every case I've looked at. So... she's leading in North Carolina by 3%. Dems are getting over sampled by 4%. The network polls are the worst but I've seen it in almost every poll I've looked at. What do you mean by over sampled? Where do you find information on the different sampling strategies? "Methodology" |
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Posted: 10/25/2016 2:42:17 PM EDT
[#45]
How concerned are you OP? What are your favorite toppings on We The Pizza pies? Low energy trolling...
Posted Via AR15.Com Mobile |
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Posted: 10/25/2016 2:47:19 PM EDT
[#46]
Sorry but Trump Landslide 2016.
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Posted: 10/25/2016 2:47:33 PM EDT
[#47]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
"Methodology" Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
I'm calling BS. The polls are being oversampled in almost every case I've looked at. So... she's leading in North Carolina by 3%. Dems are getting over sampled by 4%. The network polls are the worst but I've seen it in almost every poll I've looked at. What do you mean by over sampled? Where do you find information on the different sampling strategies? "Methodology" Methodology means the study of methods. I seek information on the different sampling strategies used by the different polls. GD seems to know all about these, I just want to read the information published by the pools |
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Posted: 10/25/2016 2:49:20 PM EDT
[#48]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
look at the breakdown of the polls, do some math, profit. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
I'm calling BS. The polls are being oversampled in almost every case I've looked at. So... she's leading in North Carolina by 3%. Dems are getting over sampled by 4%. The network polls are the worst but I've seen it in almost every poll I've looked at. What do you mean by over sampled? Where do you find information on the different sampling strategies? look at the breakdown of the polls, do some math, profit. Your suggestion would do nothing to answer my question 
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Posted: 10/25/2016 2:52:14 PM EDT
[#49]
So your "friend" was told something by some other guy who may or may not have any clue what's going on?
Ok then. |
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Posted: 10/25/2016 2:55:21 PM EDT
[#50]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Your suggestion would do nothing to answer my question
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
I'm calling BS. The polls are being oversampled in almost every case I've looked at. So... she's leading in North Carolina by 3%. Dems are getting over sampled by 4%. The network polls are the worst but I've seen it in almost every poll I've looked at. What do you mean by over sampled? Where do you find information on the different sampling strategies? look at the breakdown of the polls, do some math, profit. Your suggestion would do nothing to answer my question
This ABC News poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone Oct. 20 to 23, 2016, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 1,155 likely voters. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3 points, including the design effect. Partisan divisions are 36-27-31 percent, Democrats-Republicans-independents. Here is another one. http://assets.bwbx.io/documents/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/rpooBV0UlG4k/v0 42 percent In January, Gallup announced that those who identify themselves as “Independent” now make up a full 42 percent of the voting electorate. In March, Pew showed that Millennials increasingly see themselves as independent from a political party. Can you tell me what's wrong? No to mention that in 2012 there was only a 4.5% difference in Ds and Rs that voted. So how/why they think its 9% is beyond me. |
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