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Link Posted: 6/27/2016 11:19:32 PM EDT
[#1]
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If the vehicle is heavy enough to carry meaningful armament, the pilot's not a pronounced G limitation.
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Ideas like this are why a majority of the species is going to be shellshocked by a singularity event.  You're trying to find peace of mind by comparing tools with an AI, it's going to out THINK you.  It may not even need our military arms if it decides we need to go.  It's been so long since we've had a viable predator other than ourselves I don't think humanity realizes what's coming.
Link Posted: 6/27/2016 11:21:34 PM EDT
[#2]
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It's unstoppable.

Short of a total collapse of human civilization.   I'll be interested to see if it is actually conscious or just incredibly intelligent.   One fallacy that a lot of people forget is you don't actually have to achieve a "ghost in the machine" to achieve A.I.   There's absolutely no reason to believe that it has to have anything like our "egos", or sense of "I".  

I suppose the good news is it won't have an endocrine system.  It'll have no sex drive, no need for status, or material gratification that evolution has programed us for.  It will be nothing like us.  

....and that is good.  



 
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Actually it is easily detected. Check out the news and every fag with a laptop trying to make an AI is blogging about it or letting some reporter video the tests. Someone eliminates or co-opts the ones in college and tracks the ones who graduated and you will have YOUR LIST.


AI/super computer processing ability is just like the arms race of previous generations.  If you decide to try and slow it down that's all well and good, but your opponents will most likely not join your quest.


It's unstoppable.

Short of a total collapse of human civilization.   I'll be interested to see if it is actually conscious or just incredibly intelligent.   One fallacy that a lot of people forget is you don't actually have to achieve a "ghost in the machine" to achieve A.I.   There's absolutely no reason to believe that it has to have anything like our "egos", or sense of "I".  

I suppose the good news is it won't have an endocrine system.  It'll have no sex drive, no need for status, or material gratification that evolution has programed us for.  It will be nothing like us.  

....and that is good.  



 


Yeah, but that is getting into VI vs AI

Considering people are all flawed and biased in some way or another, my money is on that coming through in the programming as well.  Who knows if it'll be quirky or homicidal, but there is no way to know till it happens.

Now we are all fucked if it is allowed to self write programming at will.
Link Posted: 6/27/2016 11:22:38 PM EDT
[#3]
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FIFY.  Humans are still developing the code, and hence still are smarter.  I'm not aware of any AI that can yet create itself.  Yes, it can learn an be adaptive to the environment, but until we have AI developing their own AI, I'm not too worried.   The big edge right now is that computers and AI can process data much faster than our brains, and thus can make decisions more quickly based on an available data set.
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It's really not that hard to believe that computers are smarter can process data faster than humans . Not much of an accomplishment .


FIFY.  Humans are still developing the code, and hence still are smarter.  I'm not aware of any AI that can yet create itself.  Yes, it can learn an be adaptive to the environment, but until we have AI developing their own AI, I'm not too worried.   The big edge right now is that computers and AI can process data much faster than our brains, and thus can make decisions more quickly based on an available data set.



DeepMind is writing it's own block code.  


Link Posted: 6/27/2016 11:25:10 PM EDT
[#4]
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Yeah, but that is getting into VI vs AI
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Actually it is easily detected. Check out the news and every fag with a laptop trying to make an AI is blogging about it or letting some reporter video the tests. Someone eliminates or co-opts the ones in college and tracks the ones who graduated and you will have YOUR LIST.


AI/super computer processing ability is just like the arms race of previous generations.  If you decide to try and slow it down that's all well and good, but your opponents will most likely not join your quest.


It's unstoppable.

Short of a total collapse of human civilization.   I'll be interested to see if it is actually conscious or just incredibly intelligent.   One fallacy that a lot of people forget is you don't actually have to achieve a "ghost in the machine" to achieve A.I.   There's absolutely no reason to believe that it has to have anything like our "egos", or sense of "I".  

I suppose the good news is it won't have an endocrine system.  It'll have no sex drive, no need for status, or material gratification that evolution has programed us for.  It will be nothing like us.  

....and that is good.  



 


Yeah, but that is getting into VI vs AI


Not really.

Intelligence without consciousness is not a new idea.   It could still be goal oriented.  It just doesn't have the biological programing.  It has no primitive hormonal drives for status or wealth.  


Link Posted: 6/27/2016 11:26:24 PM EDT
[#5]
A computer will never defeat a human at chess!
Link Posted: 6/27/2016 11:26:37 PM EDT
[#6]
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And it all happens at an ever accelerating rate.
It will eventually evolve so fast that humans will not be able to control it or protect against it.

Millions of people living as foes
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But you agree we are moving towards that end game? I guess my point is at what point do we say "they're smart enough, we(humans) will take it from here."


Never going to happen.  Not sure where this train ends, but it's going in one direction and there are no brakes.

Crazy, but that's how it goes

And it all happens at an ever accelerating rate.
It will eventually evolve so fast that humans will not be able to control it or protect against it.

Millions of people living as foes

If I were Skynet, I would kill you, and the rest of the world, because you didn't get my reference.
Link Posted: 6/27/2016 11:29:19 PM EDT
[#7]
drone flown in tandem with fighter plane.

Link Posted: 6/27/2016 11:29:32 PM EDT
[#8]
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If I were Skynet, I would kill you, and the rest of the world, because you didn't get my reference.
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But you agree we are moving towards that end game? I guess my point is at what point do we say "they're smart enough, we(humans) will take it from here."


Never going to happen.  Not sure where this train ends, but it's going in one direction and there are no brakes.

Crazy, but that's how it goes

And it all happens at an ever accelerating rate.
It will eventually evolve so fast that humans will not be able to control it or protect against it.

Millions of people living as foes

If I were Skynet, I would kill you, and the rest of the world, because you didn't get my reference.


If I were Skynet, I'd be too busy nuking the royal shit out of the middle east, because somebody has to do it.
Link Posted: 6/27/2016 11:30:34 PM EDT
[#9]
I have a simple solution to all this.  Use a grown brain as the host for the computer, and if it ever goes crazy, someone just needs to mix a bit of booze into the feed lines. Next thing we know, Skynet is writing a hit country song about loving jack daniels while driving a corvette



Yes, I know it doesn't work like that, but it was amusing.
Link Posted: 6/27/2016 11:31:18 PM EDT
[#10]
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Not really.

Intelligence without consciousness is not a new idea.   It could still be goal oriented.  It just doesn't have the biological programing.  It has no primitive hormonal drives for status or wealth.  


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The question is whether intelligence is wholly orthogonal to desired values, or whether intelligence optimization inevitably leaks through as a terminal goal in any sufficiently advanced system.

If it's the former - the present consensus - we "only" have to worry about concretely addressable if existentially threatening failure modes like paperclippers, and maybe the occasional problem with predicting complex systems. If optimization is inevitable, then we all sit down, say a prayer to Cthulhu, and watch Skynet win the universe.
Link Posted: 6/27/2016 11:34:16 PM EDT
[#11]
Pilots are going the way of the dodo in air war, just a matter of time. Swarms of drones, working/networked together under the general guidance of a human operator will rule the skies soon.

Posted Via AR15.Com Mobile
Link Posted: 6/27/2016 11:37:40 PM EDT
[#12]
Link Posted: 6/27/2016 11:37:47 PM EDT
[#13]
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The question is whether intelligence is wholly orthogonal to desired values, or whether intelligence optimization inevitably leaks through as a terminal goal in any sufficiently advanced system.

If it's the former - the present consensus - we "only" have to worry about concretely addressable if existentially threatening failure modes like paperclippers, and maybe the occasional problem with predicting complex systems. If optimization is inevitable, then we all sit down, say a prayer to Cthulhu, and watch Skynet win the universe.
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Not really.

Intelligence without consciousness is not a new idea.   It could still be goal oriented.  It just doesn't have the biological programing.  It has no primitive hormonal drives for status or wealth.  




The question is whether intelligence is wholly orthogonal to desired values, or whether intelligence optimization inevitably leaks through as a terminal goal in any sufficiently advanced system.

If it's the former - the present consensus - we "only" have to worry about concretely addressable if existentially threatening failure modes like paperclippers, and maybe the occasional problem with predicting complex systems. If optimization is inevitable, then we all sit down, say a prayer to Cthulhu, and watch Skynet win the universe.


The first iteration will be the most like us.  After that, not so much.  And the generational change, without the baggage of random biology, or enviornmental limitation, means that won't last long.  The rate of change will be measured not in millennia but in days.    


Link Posted: 6/27/2016 11:38:04 PM EDT
[#14]
Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning is here now, big time. I work for an AI driven tech company. Every major tech company including the likes of Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, etc are investing HEAVILY in recruiting data scientists and mathematicians. If you feed a computer millions of scenarios specific to a task it will be beat a human every time in comparison.

Its all around us: Netflix film suggestions based on search criteria, suggestions on Amazon for things to buy based on your history. Those are small sample sets, but feeding a computer data in the millions specific to your interests and it will guess correctly nearly every time. No human can compete. Just don't give it a personality, it's own set of morals, and free will. But that will be the next phase....
Link Posted: 6/27/2016 11:38:41 PM EDT
[#15]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2015/01/28/bill-gates-on-dangers-of-artificial-intelligence-dont-understand-why-some-people-are-not-concerned/
Shortly after, Bill Gates was asked how much of an existential threat superintelligent machines pose to humans.

The question has been at the forefront of several recent discussions among prominent futurists. Last month, theoretical physicist Stephen Hawking said artificial intelligence "could spell the end of the human race."

[Why the world’s most intelligent people shouldn’t be so afraid of artificial intelligence]

Speaking at the MIT Aeronautics and Astronautics department’s Centennial Symposium in October, Tesla boss Elon Musk referred to artificial intelligence as "summoning the demon."

I think we should be very careful about artificial intelligence. If I were to guess like what our biggest existential threat is, it’s probably that. So we need to be very careful with the artificial intelligence. Increasingly scientists think there should be some regulatory oversight maybe at the national and international level, just to make sure that we don’t do something very foolish. With artificial intelligence we are summoning the demon. In all those stories where there’s the guy with the pentagram and the holy water, it’s like yeah he’s sure he can control the demon. Didn't work out.

British inventor Clive Sinclair has said he thinks artificial intelligence will doom mankind.

"Once you start to make machines that are rivaling and surpassing humans with intelligence, it's going to be very difficult for us to survive," he told the BBC. "It's just an inevitability."

After gushing about the immediate future of technology in his Reddit AMA, Gates aligned himself with the AI alarm-sounders.

"I am in the camp that is concerned about super intelligence," Gates wrote. "First the machines will do a lot of jobs for us and not be super intelligent. That should be positive if we manage it well. A few decades after that though the intelligence is strong enough to be a concern. I agree with Elon Musk and some others on this and don't understand why some people are not concerned."
Link Posted: 6/27/2016 11:39:21 PM EDT
[#16]
CNBC news today "President Obama says government must support scary tech."
Link Posted: 6/27/2016 11:41:11 PM EDT
[#17]
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It's really not that hard to believe that computers are smarter than humans . Not much of an accomplishment .
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Not smarter, but faster and able to process faster. The A.I. Probably can't do much beyond combat.

So smarter is not the correct term.
Link Posted: 6/27/2016 11:41:28 PM EDT
[#18]
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When it flys an actual aircraft, call me,

Sounds like Lee couldnt beat a game console. A computer beat a chess master. But didnt manipulate an actusl chess board.

Were atmospheric and weather conditions a variable?

How about 10 hajis with MANPADS?

Some day. But not this day.
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What?

Lol
Link Posted: 6/27/2016 11:41:45 PM EDT
[#19]
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Ideas like this are why a majority of the species is going to be shellshocked by a singularity event.  You're trying to find peace of mind by comparing tools with an AI, it's going to out THINK you.  It may not even need our military arms if it decides we need to go.  It's been so long since we've had a viable predator other than ourselves I don't think humanity realizes what's coming.
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If the vehicle is heavy enough to carry meaningful armament, the pilot's not a pronounced G limitation.


Ideas like this are why a majority of the species is going to be shellshocked by a singularity event.  You're trying to find peace of mind by comparing tools with an AI, it's going to out THINK you.  It may not even need our military arms if it decides we need to go.  It's been so long since we've had a viable predator other than ourselves I don't think humanity realizes what's coming.

kthanks, Des Cartes.

Anyway, back to the more mundane world of an AI fighter jet interface that beat a human in BFM, or whatever the task was, for some reusable platform to get w pounds of ordnance from location A to location x,y,z for some engagement ... structural limitations are on par with human limitations.  That's the state of the art as we know it today.
Link Posted: 6/27/2016 11:42:10 PM EDT
[#20]
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Tesla boss Elon Musk referred to artificial intelligence as "summoning the demon."

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he's right, but no one gets it.

understanding the future trajectory of AI isn't a matter of technology studies.  in order to predict social impacts, people should be looking at religion and occult studies.
Link Posted: 6/27/2016 11:43:46 PM EDT
[#21]

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If the vehicle is heavy enough to carry meaningful armament, the pilot's not a pronounced G limitation.
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Robots are not affected by high Gs and can react thousand times faster than human.  We dead


If the vehicle is heavy enough to carry meaningful armament, the pilot's not a pronounced G limitation.

There's a lot of weight that can be used for armament when all the life support and human control systems are not there, and the AC is configured from the ground up without a pilot.

Plus, at that point, distributed or swarm system would make more sense anyways.




Not to mention, you talk about carrying meaningful armament, what if the robot/ drone IS the armament?  I.E. kinetic kill vehicles.
Link Posted: 6/27/2016 11:44:15 PM EDT
[#22]
I will be scared the day it says it don't want to play wingman with that piece of crap F35,
Link Posted: 6/27/2016 11:44:59 PM EDT
[#23]
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otters, sparrows, chimps, and bonobos all use tools.

should i worry?
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I could tell you what the brakes are, hint it ends badly for anyone in the AI field.


That only delays it.  From the moment we started using tools as a species there was no stopping it.



otters, sparrows, chimps, and bonobos all use tools.

should i worry?


Yes, but only about the otters
Link Posted: 6/27/2016 11:45:09 PM EDT
[#24]

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Ideas like this are why a majority of the species is going to be shellshocked by a singularity event.  You're trying to find peace of mind by comparing tools with an AI, it's going to out THINK you.  It may not even need our military arms if it decides we need to go.  It's been so long since we've had a viable predator other than ourselves I don't think humanity realizes what's coming.
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Quoted:

If the vehicle is heavy enough to carry meaningful armament, the pilot's not a pronounced G limitation.




Ideas like this are why a majority of the species is going to be shellshocked by a singularity event.  You're trying to find peace of mind by comparing tools with an AI, it's going to out THINK you.  It may not even need our military arms if it decides we need to go.  It's been so long since we've had a viable predator other than ourselves I don't think humanity realizes what's coming.
I for one can't wait for Creepio to finish the singularity engine.

 





Link Posted: 6/27/2016 11:45:37 PM EDT
[#25]

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Kill all humans.... kill all humans...
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Link Posted: 6/27/2016 11:47:20 PM EDT
[#26]
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Ideas like this are why a majority of the species is going to be shellshocked by a singularity event.  You're trying to find peace of mind by comparing tools with an AI, it's going to out THINK you.  It may not even need our military arms if it decides we need to go.  It's been so long since we've had a viable predator other than ourselves I don't think humanity realizes what's coming.
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If the vehicle is heavy enough to carry meaningful armament, the pilot's not a pronounced G limitation.


Ideas like this are why a majority of the species is going to be shellshocked by a singularity event.  You're trying to find peace of mind by comparing tools with an AI, it's going to out THINK you.  It may not even need our military arms if it decides we need to go.  It's been so long since we've had a viable predator other than ourselves I don't think humanity realizes what's coming.



this is silliness.  

the problem of AI will be created by humans who want more power, and are willing to give access to AI in exchange for efficiency.  the loa of voudun are an apt parallel.

don't make the mistake of thinking that AI will be autonomous agents.  their physical behavior will be substantially bounded for a very long time, which will mean that they will need humans as much as humans need them.
Link Posted: 6/27/2016 11:50:31 PM EDT
[#27]
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There's a lot of weight that can be used for armament when all the life support and human control systems are not there, and the AC is configured from the ground up without a pilot.
Plus, at that point, distributed or swarm system would make more sense anyways.


Not to mention, you talk about carrying meaningful armament, what if the robot/ drone IS the armament?  I.E. kinetic kill vehicles.
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Robots are not affected by high Gs and can react thousand times faster than human.  We dead

If the vehicle is heavy enough to carry meaningful armament, the pilot's not a pronounced G limitation.
There's a lot of weight that can be used for armament when all the life support and human control systems are not there, and the AC is configured from the ground up without a pilot.
Plus, at that point, distributed or swarm system would make more sense anyways.


Not to mention, you talk about carrying meaningful armament, what if the robot/ drone IS the armament?  I.E. kinetic kill vehicles.

I wrote a rather detailed post on this a while back that put some real numbers to this, and the answer isn't what most people think.

I'll see if the Google Skynet can find it.  I hope so, because I don't feel like scratching that out again.
Link Posted: 6/27/2016 11:54:00 PM EDT
[#28]
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There's a lot of weight that can be used for armament when all the life support and human control systems are not there, and the AC is configured from the ground up without a pilot.
Plus, at that point, distributed or swarm system would make more sense anyways.


Not to mention, you talk about carrying meaningful armament, what if the robot/ drone IS the armament?  I.E. kinetic kill vehicles.
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Robots are not affected by high Gs and can react thousand times faster than human.  We dead

If the vehicle is heavy enough to carry meaningful armament, the pilot's not a pronounced G limitation.
There's a lot of weight that can be used for armament when all the life support and human control systems are not there, and the AC is configured from the ground up without a pilot.
Plus, at that point, distributed or swarm system would make more sense anyways.


Not to mention, you talk about carrying meaningful armament, what if the robot/ drone IS the armament?  I.E. kinetic kill vehicles.


If only we could develop such technology. We could call it a missile. Or we could make is go slower at a more maneuverable cruising speed.

If only.

Alas we are stuck with airplanes.

Also, war is more art than science. Just because a computer can beat an ABM at checklist execution doesn't mean shit.
Link Posted: 6/27/2016 11:59:18 PM EDT
[#29]
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he's right, but no one gets it.

understanding the future trajectory of AI isn't a matter of technology studies.  in order to predict social impacts, people should be looking at religion and occult studies.
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Tesla boss Elon Musk referred to artificial intelligence as "summoning the demon."



he's right, but no one gets it.

understanding the future trajectory of AI isn't a matter of technology studies.  in order to predict social impacts, people should be looking at religion and occult studies.

Crap I prided myself on being the only one hip to that insight.
Link Posted: 6/28/2016 12:01:10 AM EDT
[#30]
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The first iteration will be the most like us.  After that, not so much.  And the generational change, without the baggage of random biology, or enviornmental limitation, means that won't last long.  The rate of change will be measured not in millennia but in days.    
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Every successful iteration will be unlike us. It takes extra effort to make human-like calculators; and it produces inferior results. You don't give feels to a financial system and you really don't give them to a military system.
Link Posted: 6/28/2016 12:04:51 AM EDT
[#31]
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Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning is here now, big time. I work for an AI driven tech company. Every major tech company including the likes of Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, etc are investing HEAVILY in recruiting data scientists and mathematicians. If you feed a computer millions of scenarios specific to a task it will be beat a human every time in comparison.

Its all around us: Netflix film suggestions based on search criteria, suggestions on Amazon for things to buy based on your history. Those are small sample sets, but feeding a computer data in the millions specific to your interests and it will guess correctly nearly every time. No human can compete. Just don't give it a personality, it's own set of morals, and free will. But that will be the next phase....
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Twitter bought a package as well and there was an article about salaries bigger than professional athletes being paid to recruit AI engineers in the Economist or Forbes last month.
Link Posted: 6/28/2016 12:05:01 AM EDT
[#32]
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this is silliness.  

the problem of AI will be created by humans who want more power, and are willing to give access to AI in exchange for efficiency.  the loa of voudun are an apt parallel.

don't make the mistake of thinking that AI will be autonomous agents.  their physical behavior will be substantially bounded for a very long time, which will mean that they will need humans as much as humans need them.
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If the vehicle is heavy enough to carry meaningful armament, the pilot's not a pronounced G limitation.


Ideas like this are why a majority of the species is going to be shellshocked by a singularity event.  You're trying to find peace of mind by comparing tools with an AI, it's going to out THINK you.  It may not even need our military arms if it decides we need to go.  It's been so long since we've had a viable predator other than ourselves I don't think humanity realizes what's coming.



this is silliness.  

the problem of AI will be created by humans who want more power, and are willing to give access to AI in exchange for efficiency.  the loa of voudun are an apt parallel.

don't make the mistake of thinking that AI will be autonomous agents.  their physical behavior will be substantially bounded for a very long time, which will mean that they will need humans as much as humans need them.


Sam Harris had a discussion regarding this on his podcast. He was pressing the guest, who was unconcerned about AI for the most part, about possible scenarios where AI would cease to become physically bound in a particular system. The basic premise of one of his concerns was that even the best, most qualified, brightest individuals could still be corrupted by an advanced AI for personal gain. (i.e. the AI will figure out the cure to a terminal disease of a researcher's wife in exchange for overriding any safety protocols). I may not be doing the argument justice here, but it seemed compelling in the shower

ETA: link, 1hr 27-28 is exactly where this argument is https://youtu.be/8L3DKlBz874?t=5154
Link Posted: 6/28/2016 12:07:15 AM EDT
[#33]
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Pilots are going the way of the dodo in air war, just a matter of time. Swarms of drones, working/networked together under the general guidance of a human operator will rule the skies soon.

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I read a Business Insider article last month that said this was China's approach.
Link Posted: 6/28/2016 12:09:10 AM EDT
[#34]
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Every successful iteration will be unlike us. It takes extra effort to make human-like calculators; and it produces inferior results. You don't give feels to a financial system and you really don't give them to a military system.
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The first iteration will be the most like us.  After that, not so much.  And the generational change, without the baggage of random biology, or enviornmental limitation, means that won't last long.  The rate of change will be measured not in millennia but in days.    


Every successful iteration will be unlike us. It takes extra effort to make human-like calculators; and it produces inferior results. You don't give feels to a financial system and you really don't give them to a military system.


No, but the base iteration will be the most like us.  If for no other reason than we'll have a hand in it.  After that...not so much.

Kind of like how an OP starts a thread on GD, and then it takes a direction all it's own.  
Link Posted: 6/28/2016 12:14:28 AM EDT
[#35]
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FIFY.  Humans are still developing the code, and hence still are smarter.  I'm not aware of any AI that can yet create itself.  Yes, it can learn an be adaptive to the environment, but until we have AI developing their own AI, I'm not too worried.   The big edge right now is that computers and AI can process data much faster than our brains, and thus can make decisions more quickly based on an available data set.
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It's really not that hard to believe that computers are smarter can process data faster than humans . Not much of an accomplishment .


FIFY.  Humans are still developing the code, and hence still are smarter.  I'm not aware of any AI that can yet create itself.  Yes, it can learn an be adaptive to the environment, but until we have AI developing their own AI, I'm not too worried.   The big edge right now is that computers and AI can process data much faster than our brains, and thus can make decisions more quickly based on an available data set.


Blue -. That's kinda like saying,."well they haven't split the atom yet...they have the machinery that may make it happen...."

Green - computers will always be able to crunch numbers and analyze data sets faster.

I'm not disagreeing with your statements.  

I just think the point is a thinking self aware AI is coming. As much as these companies are putting into it, it's going to happen just don't know when or what the results will be.

Hopefully a self aware AI will recognize certain value to having humans around.


Link Posted: 6/28/2016 12:15:41 AM EDT
[#36]

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When it flys an actual aircraft, call me,
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I hate to break it to you but AI are flying aircraft right now.
Link Posted: 6/28/2016 12:16:29 AM EDT
[#37]
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Sam Harris had a discussion regarding this on his podcast. He was pressing the guest, who was unconcerned about AI for the most part, about possible scenarios where AI would cease to become physically bound in a particular system. The basic premise of one of his concerns was that even the best, most qualified, brightest individuals could still be corrupted by an advanced AI for personal gain. (i.e. the AI will figure out the cure to a terminal disease of a researcher's wife in exchange for overriding any safety protocols). I may not be doing the argument justice here, but it seemed compelling in the shower

May have been Neil Degrasse Tyson as the guest.
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If the vehicle is heavy enough to carry meaningful armament, the pilot's not a pronounced G limitation.


Ideas like this are why a majority of the species is going to be shellshocked by a singularity event.  You're trying to find peace of mind by comparing tools with an AI, it's going to out THINK you.  It may not even need our military arms if it decides we need to go.  It's been so long since we've had a viable predator other than ourselves I don't think humanity realizes what's coming.



this is silliness.  

the problem of AI will be created by humans who want more power, and are willing to give access to AI in exchange for efficiency.  the loa of voudun are an apt parallel.

don't make the mistake of thinking that AI will be autonomous agents.  their physical behavior will be substantially bounded for a very long time, which will mean that they will need humans as much as humans need them.


Sam Harris had a discussion regarding this on his podcast. He was pressing the guest, who was unconcerned about AI for the most part, about possible scenarios where AI would cease to become physically bound in a particular system. The basic premise of one of his concerns was that even the best, most qualified, brightest individuals could still be corrupted by an advanced AI for personal gain. (i.e. the AI will figure out the cure to a terminal disease of a researcher's wife in exchange for overriding any safety protocols). I may not be doing the argument justice here, but it seemed compelling in the shower

May have been Neil Degrasse Tyson as the guest.


this is exactly how i see it going down.  AIs will almost certainly operate within a rigorously economic framework, because we will have set them up that way.  because they will be able to promise (and deliver) greater efficacy for humans, they will be able to force concessions that will allow them to escape the 'soft world'.  

hence the occult, only in a very different form.
Link Posted: 6/28/2016 12:17:39 AM EDT
[#38]
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There's a lot of weight that can be used for armament when all the life support and human control systems are not there, and the AC is configured from the ground up without a pilot.
Plus, at that point, distributed or swarm system would make more sense anyways.


Not to mention, you talk about carrying meaningful armament, what if the robot/ drone IS the armament?  I.E. kinetic kill vehicles.
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Robots are not affected by high Gs and can react thousand times faster than human.  We dead

If the vehicle is heavy enough to carry meaningful armament, the pilot's not a pronounced G limitation.
There's a lot of weight that can be used for armament when all the life support and human control systems are not there, and the AC is configured from the ground up without a pilot.
Plus, at that point, distributed or swarm system would make more sense anyways.


Not to mention, you talk about carrying meaningful armament, what if the robot/ drone IS the armament?  I.E. kinetic kill vehicles.


Plus you remove the remaining physical barrier to increased maneuvering - the meatbag who has a hard time sustaining 9g.  Well, *can't* sustain 9g or even 7g is more like it.  Now we will only limited by the airframe structural strength - and can actually engineer back in strength that has been previously removed for weight savings because it was unusable anyway due to the meat popsicle up front.  There's a LOT of weight you get to convert from life support to maneuvering capability.  All else being equal, maneuverability gets the kill.

Now the fighter race will turn into Formula1 through 1994 where the computers played a huge part in winning and so much of the win was tied to the car control algorithms.  We will see AI enabled planes with massive amounts of power to weight ratio, huge g load abilities, and the ability to alter the aeros of the design since we can basically go totally freeform without a human to concern ourselves with.
Link Posted: 6/28/2016 12:18:49 AM EDT
[#39]



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If only we could develop such technology. We could call it a missile. Or we could make is go slower at a more maneuverable cruising speed.
If only.
Alas we are stuck with airplanes.







Also, war is more art than science. Just because a computer can beat an ABM at checklist execution doesn't mean shit.
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Robots are not affected by high Gs and can react thousand times faster than human.  We dead




If the vehicle is heavy enough to carry meaningful armament, the pilot's not a pronounced G limitation.
There's a lot of weight that can be used for armament when all the life support and human control systems are not there, and the AC is configured from the ground up without a pilot.



Plus, at that point, distributed or swarm system would make more sense anyways.











Not to mention, you talk about carrying meaningful armament, what if the robot/ drone IS the armament?  I.E. kinetic kill vehicles.




If only we could develop such technology. We could call it a missile. Or we could make is go slower at a more maneuverable cruising speed.
If only.
Alas we are stuck with airplanes.







Also, war is more art than science. Just because a computer can beat an ABM at checklist execution doesn't mean shit.
Are we?

 








Kill vehicle
+



http://www.onr.navy.mil/Media-Center/Press-Releases/2015/LOCUST-low-cost-UAV-swarm-ONR.aspx









 
Link Posted: 6/28/2016 12:20:00 AM EDT
[#40]
Quoted:
link


Artificial intelligence (AI) developed by a University of Cincinnati doctoral graduate was recently assessed by subject-matter expert and retired United States Air Force Colonel Gene Lee — who holds extensive aerial combat experience as an instructor and Air Battle Manager with considerable fighter aircraft expertise — in a high-fidelity air combat simulator. The artificial intelligence, dubbed ALPHA, was the victor in that simulated scenario, and according to Lee, is “the most aggressive, responsive, dynamic and credible AI I’ve seen to date.”

...
It was only after early iterations of ALPHA bested other computer program opponents that Lee then took to manual controls against a more mature version of ALPHA last October. Not only was Lee not able to score a kill against ALPHA after repeated attempts, he was shot out of the air every time during protracted engagements in the simulator.

Since that first human vs. ALPHA encounter in the simulator, this AI has repeatedly bested other experts as well, and is even able to win out against these human experts when its [the ALPHA-controlled] aircraft are deliberately handicapped in terms of speed, turning, missile capability and sensors.
...
Lee, who has been flying in simulators against AI opponents since the early 1980s, said of that first encounter against ALPHA, “I was surprised at how aware and reactive it was. It seemed to be aware of my intentions and reacting instantly to my changes in flight and my missile deployment. It knew how to defeat the shot I was taking. It moved instantly between defensive and offensive actions as needed.”

He added that with most AIs, “an experienced pilot can beat up on it (the AI) if you know what you’re doing. Sure, you might have gotten shot down once in a while by an AI program when you, as a pilot, were trying something new, but, until now, an AI opponent simply could not keep up with anything like the real pressure and pace of combat-like scenarios.”
...
The AI is so fast that it could consider and coordinate the best tactical plan and precise responses, within a dynamic environment, over 250 times faster than ALPHA’s human opponents could blink. UC’s Cohen added, “ALPHA would be an extremely easy AI to cooperate with and have as a teammate. ALPHA could continuously determine the optimal ways to perform tasks commanded by its manned wingman, as well as provide tactical and situational advice to the rest of its flight.”

However, ALPHA and its algorithms require no more than the computing power available in a low-budget PC in order to run in real time and quickly react and respond to uncertainty and random events or scenarios.
...
The ALPHA programming is generational. It can be improved from one generation to the next, from one version to the next. In fact, the current version of ALPHA is only that – the current version. Subsequent versions are expected to perform significantly better.

Again, from UC’s Cohen, “In a lot of ways, it’s no different than when air combat began in W.W. I. At first, there were a whole bunch of pilots. Those who survived to the end of the war were the aces. Only in this case, we’re talking about code.”
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Congratulations to Colonel  Dunsail.
Link Posted: 6/28/2016 12:22:16 AM EDT
[#41]
The future of AI.










 
Link Posted: 6/28/2016 12:24:21 AM EDT
[#42]
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If I were Skynet, I would kill you, and the rest of the world, because you didn't get my reference.
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But you agree we are moving towards that end game? I guess my point is at what point do we say "they're smart enough, we(humans) will take it from here."


Never going to happen.  Not sure where this train ends, but it's going in one direction and there are no brakes.

Crazy, but that's how it goes

And it all happens at an ever accelerating rate.
It will eventually evolve so fast that humans will not be able to control it or protect against it.

Millions of people living as foes

If I were Skynet, I would kill you, and the rest of the world, because you didn't get my reference.


They aren't on the same train as you.
Link Posted: 6/28/2016 12:48:55 AM EDT
[#43]
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I read a Business Insider article last month that said this was China's approach.
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Pilots are going the way of the dodo in air war, just a matter of time. Swarms of drones, working/networked together under the general guidance of a human operator will rule the skies soon.

Posted Via AR15.Com Mobile

I read a Business Insider article last month that said this was China's approach.


And Russia, and Iran, and North Korea... Everyone who is building a military that doesn't have a bunch of former pilots as politicians or lobbyists foolishly wasting more than 1/3 of their defense budget on aircraft.

Link Posted: 6/28/2016 12:52:14 AM EDT
[#44]
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Robots are not affected by high Gs and can react thousand times faster than human.  We dead

If the vehicle is heavy enough to carry meaningful armament, the pilot's not a pronounced G limitation.
There's a lot of weight that can be used for armament when all the life support and human control systems are not there, and the AC is configured from the ground up without a pilot.
Plus, at that point, distributed or swarm system would make more sense anyways.


Not to mention, you talk about carrying meaningful armament, what if the robot/ drone IS the armament?  I.E. kinetic kill vehicles.


If only we could develop such technology. We could call it a missile. Or we could make is go slower at a more maneuverable cruising speed.

If only.

Alas we are stuck with airplanes.

Also, war is more art than science. Just because a computer can beat an ABM at checklist execution doesn't mean shit.
Are we?    

Kill vehicle
+
http://www.onr.navy.mil/Media-Center/Press-Releases/2015/LOCUST-low-cost-UAV-swarm-ONR.aspx
https://youtu.be/W1HCFM9yoKo

 


As long as we spend more than 1/3 of our budget on aircraft, we are losing the long term arms race.

I believe the MKV project has nothing to do with AI, or UAVs... https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multiple_Kill_Vehicle

Defensive systems aren't going to win anything without a good offense.

Edit: I missed the swarm link at first that is cool.
Link Posted: 6/28/2016 1:01:37 AM EDT
[#45]
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As long as we spend more than 1/3 of our budget on aircraft, we are losing the long term arms race.
View Quote


I know it's not popular.  But we have two levels of warfare now.  Both, have very unique requirements.

The US is the only superpower.  If it wants to effectively dissuade any nation state challengers to this position it needs to invest in:

1. most advanced and flexible nuclear weapons system
2. missile defense systems
4. submarine fleet
5. advanced surveillance systems.  

Fighting criminals (e.g. ISIS, Islamic terrorist) requires police operations.  

1. flexible, light, and fast interdiction forces.  
2. advanced surveillance





Link Posted: 6/28/2016 1:02:44 AM EDT
[#46]


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Robots are not affected by high Gs and can react thousand times faster than human.  We dead
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It cannot be far the day the Chinese or Ruskies put up something that has the capability to outfly our meatsicle pilots. At that point we have to be able to counter or at minimum instantly fry their command and control structure. Frankly it (unmanned vehicles) should be easier at todays level of tech available to us and several others.


 
Link Posted: 6/28/2016 1:08:06 AM EDT
[#47]
There's also a growing trend for IA - Intelligence Augmentation which is a way to use technology to make humans more capable and keep pace with machines.  I suppose we become more machine over time, but much more capable.

Its pretty cool either way.
Link Posted: 6/28/2016 1:10:41 AM EDT
[#48]
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Quoted:


I know it's not popular.  But we have two levels of warfare now.  Both, have very unique requirements.

The US is the only superpower.  If it wants to effectively dissuade any nation state challengers to this position it needs to invest in:

1. most advanced and flexible nuclear weapons system
2. missile defense systems
4. submarine fleet
5. advanced surveillance systems.  

Fighting criminals (e.g. ISIS, Islamic terrorist) requires police operations.  

1. flexible, light, and fast interdiction forces.  
2. advanced surveillance


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Quoted:
Quoted:


As long as we spend more than 1/3 of our budget on aircraft, we are losing the long term arms race.


I know it's not popular.  But we have two levels of warfare now.  Both, have very unique requirements.

The US is the only superpower.  If it wants to effectively dissuade any nation state challengers to this position it needs to invest in:

1. most advanced and flexible nuclear weapons system
2. missile defense systems
4. submarine fleet
5. advanced surveillance systems.  

Fighting criminals (e.g. ISIS, Islamic terrorist) requires police operations.  

1. flexible, light, and fast interdiction forces.  
2. advanced surveillance




I mostly agree... However, I would put cyber at the top of the first list.

Our ground forces will never be flexible and light enough to outmaneuver guerrilla tactics. The Intel needs to improve, the cost per man needs to decrease, the effectiveness needs to increase. And we will need lots of them. Oh and the Army/Marines and their support will have to stop training/manning/equipping for What they think a war with The Soviets in 1982 would be like. And we will probably still lose those kind of wars.
Link Posted: 6/28/2016 1:15:01 AM EDT
[#49]
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They aren't on the same train as you.
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Never going to happen.  Not sure where this train ends, but it's going in one direction and there are no brakes.

Crazy, but that's how it goes

And it all happens at an ever accelerating rate.
It will eventually evolve so fast that humans will not be able to control it or protect against it.

Millions of people living as foes

If I were Skynet, I would kill you, and the rest of the world, because you didn't get my reference.


They aren't on the same train as you.

Congratulations, you are the sole survivor of the Skynet Apocalypse.  

Enjoy your Earth.  May your ancestors forever appreciate how your survival ensured theirs.

[I'm an engineer, not a biologist.  Not sure how that's going to pan our for you.  Mine's not a well thought out plan.  But, good luck with all that!]
Link Posted: 6/28/2016 1:19:07 AM EDT
[#50]
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Quoted:


Plus you remove the remaining physical barrier to increased maneuvering - the meatbag who has a hard time sustaining 9g.  Well, *can't* sustain 9g or even 7g is more like it.  Now we will only limited by the airframe structural strength - and can actually engineer back in strength that has been previously removed for weight savings because it was unusable anyway due to the meat popsicle up front.  There's a LOT of weight you get to convert from life support to maneuvering capability.  All else being equal, maneuverability gets the kill.

Now the fighter race will turn into Formula1 through 1994 where the computers played a huge part in winning and so much of the win was tied to the car control algorithms.  We will see AI enabled planes with massive amounts of power to weight ratio, huge g load abilities, and the ability to alter the aeros of the design since we can basically go totally freeform without a human to concern ourselves with.
View Quote View All Quotes
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Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Robots are not affected by high Gs and can react thousand times faster than human.  We dead

If the vehicle is heavy enough to carry meaningful armament, the pilot's not a pronounced G limitation.
There's a lot of weight that can be used for armament when all the life support and human control systems are not there, and the AC is configured from the ground up without a pilot.
Plus, at that point, distributed or swarm system would make more sense anyways.


Not to mention, you talk about carrying meaningful armament, what if the robot/ drone IS the armament?  I.E. kinetic kill vehicles.


Plus you remove the remaining physical barrier to increased maneuvering - the meatbag who has a hard time sustaining 9g.  Well, *can't* sustain 9g or even 7g is more like it.  Now we will only limited by the airframe structural strength - and can actually engineer back in strength that has been previously removed for weight savings because it was unusable anyway due to the meat popsicle up front.  There's a LOT of weight you get to convert from life support to maneuvering capability.  All else being equal, maneuverability gets the kill.

Now the fighter race will turn into Formula1 through 1994 where the computers played a huge part in winning and so much of the win was tied to the car control algorithms.  We will see AI enabled planes with massive amounts of power to weight ratio, huge g load abilities, and the ability to alter the aeros of the design since we can basically go totally freeform without a human to concern ourselves with.

Or, you can click on my user info and see why I wrote what I did.
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