That helped.

But you don't get offered arms deals from the Soviets because of good Marxism... You get offered arms deals from the Soviets because you are strategically useful to them. Israel's prime real estate in the Med made them attractive... Until they told the Soviets to FOAD.

with jordan, syria and egypt allied with france and england after ww2, russia saw an opportunity.  they forgot the original zionists fled russian peasants massacring them

Leaked Ankara UN letter claims Su-24's ‘air space violation’ lasted 17 seconds

   

   

*Sigh* Have you actually looked at a map yourself?

Since you obviously haven't been paying attention, Russia already has Iran and Syria as vassal states and is in the process of adding Iraq to that list via Iranian influence. Add Azerbaijan (who will either eventually submit to Russian dominance or will be conquered) and you have land access to the Med from southwestern Russia. This is strategically important to the Russians and has been a long term interest of theirs for a long time. Basically ever since the Turks became untouchable through NATO.

I'm more surprised that there is still a "Radio Free Europe".

Dude, suggesting that Iran is a vassal state of Russia is about as asinine as it comes. Allies yes, vassal, that means you get an F in Current Events.

Your earlier suggestion that Russia winning in Syria negates the need of Turkey ("One they may eventually be able to use, without Turkey.") is complete evidence of your poor understanding of basic geography, which you also get an F in. Also, since you don't seem to understand Russian military history, that's an F in History. You're not doing very well at this point, maybe time to read a bit, post less.

Yeah.  Having a "warm water port" without access through Turkey kind of makes that whole Crimea thing a wasted effort.

Vatican City

Dont forget KAL982

So basically Russia to make the blood and treasure spent in Crimea/Ukraine worth it, to make the effort in Syria worth it, Russia has to get the Caucus back under it's control.

How can the west prevent the Russian's from gaining access to their ports and to make their efforts futile?

The same way we did it back in the Cold War, by making Turkey a member of NATO and supporting the alliance. With Turkey as an ally, they have the option of turning off the Bosphorus and Dardenelles whenever they want and if Russia tries to fight it means full scale war with the US. Russia will still control the Black Sea but wont be able to do shit with the Med, especially in a time of war. Moving through two Turkish straits can't be relied on, if Turkey is allied with the US.

But that takes a US president with the balls for Brinksmanship, unfortunately Obama aint that dude, Putin knows it. Also, the US will have to ignore other issues with Turkey, such as their increasingly Islamic govt policies, attacking the Kurds, and their support of ISIS and Al Nusra Front.

You know, looking at how the sides line up on this, we are getting ready to fight The Crimean War, Part 2, with the US in the English roll.

Poland is already part of NATO.

Right, but let's assume they get the Caucus back in their corner, and Iraq saddles up closer to Iran. They'd have a land route around Turkey in that situation. What then? That's what I was asking, but I might not have made that clear enough.

I was skimming some articles on The Great Game earlier today. I had the exact same thought.

What is Russia going to do if they retake all of the Caucasus? Invade Turkey? Then it goes back to the whole NATO thing, it will trigger a war with the US, which will likely go nuclear, so its a no-go. The only way Russia is free to attack Turkey is if the US wimps out and allows it. But since we have an existing defense treaty with them, we can't rightly do that. Its one thing to allow Russia to invade Ukraine, but a NATO member is a whole other ballgame, even for a pussy president like Obama. If any US president fails to abide by NATO, the organization is effectively caput.  

Without Turkey as an ally, Russia doesn't have access to the Mediterranean. Without access to the Med, it doesn't need a port in Syria. Russia needs to either intimidate Turkey into compliance, or else make nice with them. But Turkey knows they hold a trump card, their alliance with the US, and they are using that in their favor.

Turkey is like our relationship with Iran. They are weaker, can be beaten militarily, but because they control key strategic terrain and that they have strong allies they get away with a lot of shit that they shouldn't, because militarily dealing with them is too costly; the cure might be worse than the disease.

EDIT: I don't think this incident was intentional. Border units under high stress, including air CAP forces, make split second decisions that result in mistakes that have the potential to snowball into major political snafus. Its why the Red Phone was installed in the White House/Kremlin, because these sorts of things are guaranteed to happen, but might be accidental. I will bet that this incident is blamed on an overzealous Turkish pilot. Its an easy out, avoids wars. Some reparations and a public admittance that it was an accident and it will blow over. I'm sure Obama's people are working on arranging it right now, its the easiest, least costly means of dealing with this situation.

"Listen hear Mr. Erdogan, if you don't blame this on your pilots and apologize to Russia, calling it a mistake, then I wont support our NATO alliance, you're on your own."

A simple sentence like this means the situation is over, for now. Though the threat of it happening again remains.

I'm not asking about declaring war on Turkey. I'm talking about them bypassing Turkey to get to the Med.

Like this, what would NATO's likely response be in the event that Iraq realigns with Iran. It's still a longer route than going through the Bospherus, but it's shorter than going all the way around Europe.

That route isn't direct. They'd have to create a road that doesn't exist, and enforce free and safe travel on it. Russia wants unfettered access to the Med, not access through other countries. If Russia conquered and held all those countries, or forced them into an alliance system and made their govts and people into loyal Russian puppets, it would help, but even then its still not a stable route to the Med.

Also, they still wouldn't be able to move ships through it, and that's a big part of controlling the Crimea and having a base in Syria, their frigates can project Russian force and protect Russian shipping.

That was the establishment of what we now call Russia.

Since the establishment of Russia, they have not been able to push out and hold territory in the long term.  The initial taking of Kiev and what became the Kievan Rus was a Viking conquest, by the way.

Since that time, after the Kievan, then Moscovite princes spread their influence, they have been invaded by Asians, Mongols, Turks, Persians, Tatars, Swedes, Poles, Livonians, French, and Germans, most of those multiple times.

The border fluctuates back and forth, and has done so whether it was under the ancient princes, Czars, or Communists.

If you move the goal posts to include before what we know as Russia became an empire, then say their progenitors took a lot of land, there is no argument.  If you look at Russia's elastic border since then, you see failure after failure, and loss of border territory.

Is that red line some magical canal?

Probably need to read the links you post before you post them. Or post in general.

That makes sense

Russia has been wanting to break free from the Black puddle for centuries now.

Crimean Wars anyone?

Since Turkey is one of the few, if not only nations in the region on the rise economically and militarily, Russia's chances of that are long over.

I'm not fan of the Turks, especially considering Armenia, let alone Muslim contamination into Asia Minor, but the cold hard facts are that Turkey is a dominant power in the region who Russia is at the mercy of when it comes to Med access.

Turkey has tapped into a lot of export markets, especially in Europe, where their goods sell for much more than in the ME or Russia, and they have better growth than Europe by a long shot.

The idea that Russia would bypass the Bosporus via the Caucasus is not even entertained by Russians.  They, of all people, know that the largest mountains on their borders lie there, and they aren't getting access to the ME through Georgia.

Russia is practically land-locked when you start to plan the log chains.  Vladivostok is 7 time zones away from Moscow to the East, with no viable route to project power there from the European steppe of Russia on the West side of the Urals.

All their sea access is severely constrained by other major naval powers and geographic choke points, whether you are talking about the White Sea, the Gulf of Finland, the Black Sea, or the Sea of Japan.

In each region, they immediately run into natural or historic blockades.  This is why Russia has to focus on posturing the idea of being powerful.  They have nothing else.

You are obviously a Commie lover.......EVERYONE KNOWS Russia is marching on Warsaw at any moment.......

You're not getting what he's saying. Its not the number, its how they are stored and the reliability and upkeep of their launch systems. A Russia MIRV sitting in a missile that can't fire because its broke isn't part of a nation's arsenal, its a liability and an accident waiting to happen. Russia had to have a shit ton of nukes because they knew most wouldn't launch, the ones that did wouldn't track, the ones that did track wouldn't detonate, the ones that did detonate would miss the target by too far. So they needed redundancy x100 and even then it turned out that it was all bullshit, that they didn't have the capablity they tricked everyone into believing they had. The Russia military has been and is the Potemkin Village.

Is Sylvan going to lead the charge of the light brigade 2?

 

Oh man that's awful, truly amazing. also amazing we trust Russian rockets to send US astronauts to the ISS. It's a wonder we aren't sending 100 NASA astronauts just so one could make it.

17 seconds too long, obviously.

I just learned that reference in the past year or two.

Fuck Russia.

I read the links, that's why I posted them.

The idea that Russia has 4,500 nuclear warheads is not reality.  You need to read my post again, then consider the reliability of sources.  Ask yourself, "Why did Putin make it a top priority to focus on nukes within the past few years?"

What does Tomislav mean anyway?  I understand that Russians are a proud people, very unified, and paranoid, but they suffer from real weaknesses, including a diminished nuclear arsenal that was never anywhere near what it was claimed to be during the Soviet Times.

Run the numbers game and ask yourself if the stated numbers of warheads was real or a ruse.

Stated numbers of operational fighters, ships, bombers, tanks and soldiers was fabricated during the Cold War.  The units on display in East Berlin were window dressing like Propaganda Village in North Korea on the DMZ, while other units within the interior were without spare parts, meals, enough uniforms, etc.  

Some things the USSR did have were strategic oil reserves, as well as ammunition depots, but the functional hardware to take weapons to battle was severely broken down and non mission capable.

There are people who spent considerable time in the Yeltsin years traveling all over Russia to ascertain the status of their nuclear arsenal, and learned that it was a shell game.  They simply did not have anywhere near the warheads as were advertised.  Much of the Soviet leadership didn't even know.

You can believe the presstitute's and CIA's overestimates, or listen to people who actually know.  I'll leave it at that.

They seem to do it with more frequency.



 

This is from the horse's mouth.  Most of the sites were filled with water, leakage, fungus/moss, rust, and in terrible disrepair.  Launch control stations were manned by skeleton crews with drinking problems, nothing to do.

During the Soviet times even, these sites were subject to the whims of centrally planned economy, so any requests for maintenance were subject to a bureaucratic game of paperwork, favors, and delays, and that's with the nuke force having priority over anything.  When they would screen conscripts and officers for intellect, nuclear forces got priority, followed by Spetsnaz for enlisted.

They were literally delivering warheads to silo sites and mobile launchers, but not even leaving the warheads there.  The trucks would drive back to the enrichment centers, then drive out to another location to make it look like numerous warheads were being fielded.  They simply didn't have the capacity to make as many as they said they did.  It's Russia at the end of the day.  Go live there, and you'll see how horribly in ruins the place is.

It's like a massive civilizations of the most imbecilic rednecks, with some Asians and Turks mixed in, living in a frozen tundra.  They drive like Arabs, drink like sailors, and just don't care much at all for anything.  They are very reserved to a miserable life, because it just flat out sucks where they live, and then you die.

I thought I knew a lot about Russia before I went there, as I had studied it much throughout life.  I was not prepared for how bad it really is.

I volunteer to be Flashman in the charge.

 Congrats, I'd guess few people would get what that means.

One of those crazy stories that explains so much about Russian culture that you smack yourself in the forehead after reading about it and go "Now it all makes sense!"

About the idea of a land bridge between the Caucasus and ME.  You need to look at a map with elevation and relief on it first, then get back to us with that land bridge for Russia idea.

Also, assume that the Chechens might not be too keen on you rolling through with all that military hardware, and just might want some for themselves.

Then you need to go through the Lesser Caucasus Mountains, the Turkish-Iranian Plateau, and the Zagros Mountains.  Let me be Captain Obvious and say, "That isn't going to happen."

That makes it quite obvious. Thanks for posting that, I had no idea it was that mountainous. I figured it was more like driving through the Appalachians

SF Captain "Larry Thorne" led his A Detachment into the Zagros Mountains on a recovery mission in Iran back in the late 50's/early 60's.

3 other special units had attempted to reach the site, but failed, due to weather and extreme conditions of the high elevation and steep mountainous terrain.

That part of the world is brutal for humans to even climb, let alone try to pass through.

It's been stated a few times here that I'm coming off as elitist and "smarter than thou", but that really is not my intent or disposition.  The reality is that these are basic facts about geography, not anything special that is reserved for inner sanctums of illuminated ones.

One thing I learned about the Russians is that they know geography better than most other people I know, if looking generally at nationalities.  The reason is simple:  Russia shares more borders with more nations than any other, hands down, and practically all of them have invaded Russia at some point in history.

Oh I get it all right. "Let me weave some stories and claim secret knowledge." Not like its the first time that has happened in GD.

Because you are certainly bright enough to know that the Russian space program was literally built on their ICBM program, and did pretty good then and now, all things considered. And they actually have a slightly higher success rate in putting payload in orbit, and about twice as many launches overall (compared to the US) since the Space Race began. Mostly on the backs of the Soyuz and Proton, two ICBM designs.

Easily verified facts vs. anonymous posts on the internet. Take your pick.

It's going to be very difficult for Putin's worshippers to accept these indicators of his weakness and poor decision making.

Let's just assume that your statements about Russian ICBM's and space program are valid. It is true that Russia has launched more spacecraft in numbers, over 3500.

What does that have to do with the number of fissile materials?  Read the fissile materials reports.  


Internatinal Fissile Materials Report 2013

You don't have to give the least bit of credence to any of my claims.  It's a free Country.

Can we stop the bickering and get back to the original topic please. Create another thread about Russia's hypothetical options....

So is it confirmed that a Russian helicopter was also shot down in the last 24 hours?

STRATFOR: What to expect after the downing of a Russian jet

That appears to be the opinion of the Turks, including bomber splash backup. So far, Russia has not replied. Maybe they are just bitches?

Hold the presses. The latest word seems to be that there is some doubt as to the fate of the two Russian pilots. Some reports are now saying that they are being held for ransom, and that the Turkmen bragging that they had been killed was false.

One Russian marine was killed in the destruction of the rescue helicopter, though.

I will cite sources when I have more information.

Does anyone know the last time a NATO jet shot down a Russian jet?