User Panel
Posted: 4/26/2015 10:22:16 PM EDT
The United States is poised to flood world markets with once-unthinkable quantities of liquefied natural gas as soon as this year, profoundly changing the geo-politics of global energy and posing a major threat to Russian gas dominance in Europe. "We anticipate becoming big players, and I think we'll have a big impact," said the Ernest Moniz, the US Energy Secretary. "We're going to influence the whole global LNG market." Mr Moniz said four LNG export terminals are under construction and the first wave of shipments may begin before the end of this year or in early 2016 at the latest. |
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[#3]
So maybe my Chesapeake stock will be worth something after all?
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[#5]
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[#7]
I went to an interesting doom-and-gloom talk on this topic a few years back. There aren't enough LP ships for the world market. The yards that make the ships are working at capacity and almost none of the new ships will be US-flagged. I don't know how much of this stuff is true since the presenter was a nut job of one type or another.
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[#8]
Just how much LNG can we ship relative to Europe's consumption?
And how much of our LNG exports will go to Europe? |
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[#10]
I can't express enough just how important it is that we elect a conservative President because of matters like this. Notice I didn't say Republican? Yep, we really need a conservative President. This might just be our last chance.
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[#11]
And here I thought we imported it from Australia. I know they are building off shore ports so they can pump it to shore. Maybe it's LPG is what I'm thinking of.
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[#12]
Quoted: And here I thought we imported it from Australia. I know they are building off shore ports so they can pump it to shore. Maybe it's LPG is what I'm thinking of. View Quote |
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[#13]
The U.S. has tremendous stocks of gas. Why not export it? Offset the trade imbalance and put some more oil field workers back to drilling.
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[#14]
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[#15]
You would think that we would keep it here to start phasing out home heating oil...
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[#16]
Quoted:
They must be in bad shape. The southeast US now ships pelletized pine trees we chip up to burn in their ex-coal plants in the UK. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
Quoted:
Just how much LNG can we ship relative to Europe's consumption? And how much of our LNG exports will go to Europe? They must be in bad shape. The southeast US now ships pelletized pine trees we chip up to burn in their ex-coal plants in the UK. That's more of an environmental thing. There is plenty of coal, but they are converting to biomass energy regeneration as a renewable fuel source. |
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[#17]
Quoted: I went to an interesting doom-and-gloom talk on this topic a few years back. There aren't enough LP ships for the world market. The yards that make the ships are working at capacity and almost none of the new ships will be US-flagged. I don't know how much of this stuff is true since the presenter was a nut job of one type or another. View Quote |
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[#18]
Here in Maine back in late 60's, a refinery of 600k bbl per day was proposed. Shot down by the enviro lobby. (Machiasport, Maine)
@ 1983?4?, two wells were drilled in Northern Maine, one in or near Ashland?, 32-34,000 ft, hit abundant natural gas, at time profitable @ $30 a bbl oil. Another 10-12k down, likely massive oil. Deposit starts @ 120 miles east of Boston, covers most of Maine, including the Georges banks off shore, and extends up through New Brunswick and Nova Scotia. A LNG export/import depot is proposed for Eastport Me. area, The enviros are joined by the Indian Tribals in opposition. A google search uncovers report from U. of Maine of abundance of natural gas in the penobscot bay mud. New Brunswick is now doing exploratory drilling within 50 miles of the Maine Border. Under the granite from the volcanoes appears to be Shale. Saving for later? |
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[#19]
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[#20]
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[#21]
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[#22]
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[#23]
Quoted:
Quoted:
I went to an interesting doom-and-gloom talk on this topic a few years back. There aren't enough LP ships for the world market. The yards that make the ships are working at capacity and almost none of the new ships will be US-flagged. I don't know how much of this stuff is true since the presenter was a nut job of one type or another. Jones Act will not prevent ships from picking up in the U.S. and transporting overseas. It only ensures this will not be done by US flagged vessels. If our gov were smart they would make sure there are US flagged vessels moving this product. In the event the Ruskies got into a pissing match with the EU it would be less likely they would mess around with a US flagged vessel. When the market demands ships and product there will be ships and product available. Maybe not as fast as some would like but it will happen. |
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[#24]
Quoted:
of course US consumers will take it in the ass for this global economy. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
Quoted:
....and yet prices here will continue to rise. Meh of course US consumers will take it in the ass for this global economy. Not all of us... |
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[#25]
Quoted: That's more of an environmental thing. There is plenty of coal, but they are converting to biomass energy regeneration as a renewable fuel source. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Just how much LNG can we ship relative to Europe's consumption? And how much of our LNG exports will go to Europe? They must be in bad shape. The southeast US now ships pelletized pine trees we chip up to burn in their ex-coal plants in the UK. That's more of an environmental thing. There is plenty of coal, but they are converting to biomass energy regeneration as a renewable fuel source. |
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[#26]
Quoted: That's more of an environmental thing. There is plenty of coal, but they are converting to biomass energy regeneration as a renewable fuel source. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: They must be in bad shape. The southeast US now ships pelletized pine trees we chip up to burn in their ex-coal plants in the UK. That's more of an environmental thing. There is plenty of coal, but they are converting to biomass energy regeneration as a renewable fuel source. Just think, some of the trees from my FEMA camp will be keeping you warm one day………..(warning, may contain people) |
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[#27]
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[#28]
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[#29]
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[#30]
On a side note the where drilling for shale oil near my home a few years back and hit lots of NG but no oil, now there are dozens of wells ready with no reason to exploit them.
They need to do this i need more moneys. |
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[#31]
Quoted:
Just think, some of the trees from my FEMA camp will be keeping you warm one day………..(warning, may contain people) View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
They must be in bad shape. The southeast US now ships pelletized pine trees we chip up to burn in their ex-coal plants in the UK. That's more of an environmental thing. There is plenty of coal, but they are converting to biomass energy regeneration as a renewable fuel source. Just think, some of the trees from my FEMA camp will be keeping you warm one day………..(warning, may contain people) Does this mean they will smell like BBQ. If so bring on the emissions. |
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[#32]
Quoted: Care to expand on your comment? Posted Via AR15.Com Mobile View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: Heavily subsidized by US consumers/taxpayers. Care to expand on your comment? Posted Via AR15.Com Mobile Do you really need me to explain how shipping NG half way around the world at a price that undercuts Russia's price increases can only be accomplished through US government subsidies and US consumer rate hikes? |
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[#33]
Quoted:
I went to an interesting doom-and-gloom talk on this topic a few years back. There aren't enough LP ships for the world market. The yards that make the ships are working at capacity and almost none of the new ships will be US-flagged. I don't know how much of this stuff is true since the presenter was a nut job of one type or another. View Quote Its probably close to accurate. There will few to no US built, flagged, and crewed ship (aka Jones Act ships) on the runs. Not that there need to be since they wont be coastwise runs. IMO opinion a percentage need to be US flagged and crewed ships as part of whatever deal we are getting them. |
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[#34]
Quoted:
Do you really need me to explain how shipping NG half way around the world at a price that undercuts Russia's price increases can only be accomplished through US government subsidies and US consumer rate hikes? View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Heavily subsidized by US consumers/taxpayers. Care to expand on your comment? Posted Via AR15.Com Mobile Do you really need me to explain how shipping NG half way around the world at a price that undercuts Russia's price increases can only be accomplished through US government subsidies and US consumer rate hikes? Consumer price increases is free market capitalism and has nothing to do with federal subsidy. Market driven pricing in its purest form. The US has a ridiculous over abundance of NG and no way to sell/export it currently. LNG process reduces volume 600 times and is self refrigerating as long it is allowed to gas off so does not require pressurization during transport like LPG. The US government has resisted exportation to ensure inexpensive feed stock for the petrochemical industry. Effectively strangling the NG industry to make sure your zip lock baggies are cheap. |
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[#35]
Quoted:
Just how much LNG can we ship relative to Europe's consumption? View Quote Technically you don't need to look at what you can ship relative to Europe's consumption. You need to look at what you can ship relative to their imports (they do have some endogenous sources of NG), and if the goal here is to reduce Russia's influence over the Euros, then you need to look at what you can ship relative to what they import from Russia. Eurostat says that in 2012 the EU imported ~928k t.o.e. of NG, which is about 1.025 trillion m^3. It also says that ~32% of that came from Russia. So to replace Russia entirely the US would have to export something like 330 billion m^3 of NG. But do you need to replace Russia entirely in order to reduce their hold on the Euros? Probably not. You've just got to make it such that Putin's margins are so tight that he can't afford to play games any more. So now it comes down to what the US can export economically accounting for government subsidy due to the political dimension of this. In 2012 the US produced 681 billion m^3 of NG. Trouble is, is that it consumes basically all of that. Sure there's probably a lot of unused capacity, but is there enough unused capacity to make it cheap enough to undercut Russia, given the transport costs? You can only fit about a 150 million m^3 on a tanker, so that's a lot of shipping costs. How much of Russia's market share do you have to take before it hurts the oligarchs enough to force Putin to become docile? How much extra are the Euros willing to pay to get out from under Putin's thumb? How much is the US willing to subsidize this entire effort? Lot of questions here, and I don't really have the answers. Putin is still being a shit disturber even after the oil price crash fucked his budgets. The EIA says that NG accounts for ~14% of Russia's exports, or about $73 billion. About half of their government revenue comes from the energy sector, but a lot of that is internal. This makes me doubt that exporting NG to Europe is a good way to make Russia be more tractable. You'd be able to hurt them, but it wouldn't be all that much, and it would cost you a lot in the process. The key thing is breaking the Russian monopoly and lessening their influence on European foreign policy. Right now Russia could shut off the pipelines and utterly fuck over Europe to the point where they'd have to capitulate. If the US can offer an alternative, or at least a significant supplement, to Russian NG then the threat of Russia cutting them off wouldn't have the same crippling impact, allowing the Euros to play hardball should they so choose. Also, there's the non-zero threat of war, and a Europe with no power can't really defend itself. Building these terminals and buying the tankers is a good preparatory move, even if they only ever ship the equivalent of a few percent of Russia's exports. |
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[#36]
Quoted: Do you really need me to explain how shipping NG half way around the world at a price that undercuts Russia's price increases can only be accomplished through US government subsidies and US consumer rate hikes? View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Heavily subsidized by US consumers/taxpayers. Care to expand on your comment? Posted Via AR15.Com Mobile Do you really need me to explain how shipping NG half way around the world at a price that undercuts Russia's price increases can only be accomplished through US government subsidies and US consumer rate hikes? If they couldn't make a profit doing it, they wouldn't do it. |
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[#38]
Once we start exporting to Europe Russia will open up their supplies to keep us out of the market. It will solve Europe's problem. Europe needs to pay for our export capability to solve their problem.
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[#39]
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[#40]
Pipeline(s) are being dug right now from NE PA (Marcellus Shale gas) to ports in NJ.
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[#41]
If true, this is very good news for the USA and Canada.
A lot of LNG is flared off at the well here, would be nice to bottle it and use it for a proper purpose. |
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[#42]
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