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Link Posted: 3/30/2015 10:10:51 AM EDT
[#1]
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Quoted:
Bomb bomb bomb, bomb bomb Iran,

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=654H4xfDYKM


A swing and a miss.


Link Posted: 3/30/2015 10:11:02 AM EDT
[#2]


       
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Quoted:




Khrushchev banged his shoe on the table at the UN and shouted 'WE WILL BURY YOU!'



No one felt the need to wet their pants and press the red button.
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Quoted:




Khrushchev banged his shoe on the table at the UN and shouted 'WE WILL BURY YOU!'



No one felt the need to wet their pants and press the red button.


       

Quoted:
I'M ALL EARS WHAT'S YOUR PLAN?



Use the same strategy that Reagan used with the Soviets, such as:


- Bankrupt them.   Make it tough for them to get credit, make financial transactions.  


- Threaten to bomb/invade them.  Make them spend money/resources in defense.  


- Increase sanctions.  Make it tough on their economy.  


- Isolate them.  Make it tough for them to travel to developed countries.  





 
Link Posted: 3/30/2015 10:12:10 AM EDT
[#3]
There's no way to positively destroy their current nuke program with bombers. It'll take ground troops, and that's something no one is gonna go for.
Link Posted: 3/30/2015 10:13:17 AM EDT
[#4]
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Quoted:
Use the same strategy that Reagan used with the Soviets, such as:
- Bankrupt them.   Make it tough for them to get credit, make financial transactions.  
- Threaten to bomb/invade them.  Make them spend money/resources in defense.  
- Increase sanctions.  Make it tough on their economy.  
- Isolate them.  Make it tough for them to travel to developed countries.  
 
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And continue covert actions against their nuclear program.
Link Posted: 3/30/2015 10:13:34 AM EDT
[#5]
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Violence has solved every problem known to man, it will work in this situation also.
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Clearly it solved all the problems in Iraq.

What could go wrong with invading and occupying a country:

-3.5 times as large as Iraq by surface area
-with terrain far less favorable for an invader
-with 2.5 times the population
-a population that is far more homogenous and far more likely to rally around its leadership than that of Iraq if invaded
-that actually does have some form of WMD
-that we haven't been overflying daily and bombing periodically for the past 12 years

Glad I'm retired.  Have fun with that.
Link Posted: 3/30/2015 10:14:06 AM EDT
[#6]
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Quoted:

Khrushchev banged his shoe on the table at the UN and shouted 'WE WILL BURY YOU!'

No one felt the need to wet their pants and press the red button.
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Quoted:
When your enemy tells you exactly what they are going to do to you, when they are capable, it behooves you to listen and believe them.  

Khrushchev banged his shoe on the table at the UN and shouted 'WE WILL BURY YOU!'

No one felt the need to wet their pants and press the red button.


He also said that they would take us from within.

Dem party anyone?

Also, MAD worked with the Soviets because they were rational people.  The leadership of Iran does not have that quality.
Link Posted: 3/30/2015 10:14:07 AM EDT
[#7]
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Quoted:

Khrushchev banged his shoe on the table at the UN and shouted 'WE WILL BURY YOU!'

No one felt the need to wet their pants and press the red button.
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Quoted:
Quoted:
When your enemy tells you exactly what they are going to do to you, when they are capable, it behooves you to listen and believe them.  

Khrushchev banged his shoe on the table at the UN and shouted 'WE WILL BURY YOU!'

No one felt the need to wet their pants and press the red button.


*They* didn't because we had a credible deterrent in the form of overmatch.  They looked at the balance sheets, crunched the numbers, and came to the conclusion they couldn't "win" without catastrophic losses.

The theocracy in Iran may not be so restrained, and nobody can guarantee the regime won't make a disasterous miscalculation in the future once they become part of The Club.  

Link Posted: 3/30/2015 10:17:40 AM EDT
[#8]
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Quoted:


*They* didn't because we had a credible deterrent in the form of overmatch.  They looked at the balance sheets, crunched the numbers, and came to the conclusion they couldn't "win" without catastrophic losses.

The theocracy in Iran may not be so restrained, and nobody can guarantee the regime won't make a disasterous miscalculation in the future once they become part of The Club.  
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Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
When your enemy tells you exactly what they are going to do to you, when they are capable, it behooves you to listen and believe them.  

Khrushchev banged his shoe on the table at the UN and shouted 'WE WILL BURY YOU!'

No one felt the need to wet their pants and press the red button.


*They* didn't because we had a credible deterrent in the form of overmatch.  They looked at the balance sheets, crunched the numbers, and came to the conclusion they couldn't "win" without catastrophic losses.

The theocracy in Iran may not be so restrained, and nobody can guarantee the regime won't make a disasterous miscalculation in the future once they become part of The Club.  


"No one wants to die. Even people who want to go to heaven don't want to die to get there."
Link Posted: 3/30/2015 10:18:20 AM EDT
[#9]
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And in 5 years, when they've rebuilt and are working again, what do we do?  Bomb them again?  

Perpetual bombing.  This plan seems brilliant.  
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I heard a guy say there are 4 known facilities right now, that if hit with ordnance we have now, would put them back as much as 10 years.  

Eta: some of it is already under ground.


And in 5 years, when they've rebuilt and are working again, what do we do?  Bomb them again?  

Perpetual bombing.  This plan seems brilliant.  


If that is what it takes....yes.

There will always be criminals.

There will always be bad nations or groups like ISIS.  You don't negotiate...you annihalate.
Link Posted: 3/30/2015 10:18:55 AM EDT
[#10]
Its like these guys never bought a car.

You don't go in and tell the salesman that you must buy a car and that you won't walk out...


They went in and said war is off the table and they must have a deal...no shit they are going to get a weak deal that benifits Iran.

There are days where it feels like college kids who have never had to deal with grown men are running the world and grown men are laughing at them.  

War is always an option as it is not up to the US.  War comes from both sides.
Link Posted: 3/30/2015 10:19:39 AM EDT
[#11]
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Quoted: The leadership of Iran does not have that quality.
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Please present evidence that supports this assertion
Link Posted: 3/30/2015 10:20:58 AM EDT
[#12]
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Hell, that goes back to Korea, not just the ME.
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The West does not have the stomach to solve non-western problems.  We will win every battle in the ME but lose every war because we will refuse to do what is necessary to win the war because it offends our western morals.


Hell, that goes back to Korea, not just the ME.

That is why I said non-western problems.

Asia, ME, even Eurasia, any conflict past, present, or future, we can't expect the western perspective to provide an applicable solution.
Link Posted: 3/30/2015 10:23:01 AM EDT
[#13]

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Irrelevant.  Hitler was actually invading countries when Chamberlain made his error.  Iran has the ability to do what the say and haven't been using it.
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Quoted:


Quoted:


Quoted:


Quoted:

Israel sure is being rocked by all those chemical weapons attacks right now, aren't they.
They are regularly hit with rockets supplied by Iran and other bad actors.  Can you really not see a scenario where Iran falls into the hands of even worse actors than they have now?  The ones who call for Israel's annihilation?  




No, I can not see that scenario. Not realistically.




Neville Chamberlain had the same problem.




Irrelevant.  Hitler was actually invading countries when Chamberlain made his error.  Iran has the ability to do what the say and haven't been using it.
There is a mighty big difference between chemical weapons and nuclear warheads.  I think you know this.

 
Link Posted: 3/30/2015 10:24:25 AM EDT
[#14]
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QFT

Yet we lack leadership with the willingness to apply it.

Have lacked it for decades.
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Violence has solved every problem known to man, it will work in this situation also.



QFT

Yet we lack leadership with the willingness to apply it.

Have lacked it for decades.

Link Posted: 3/30/2015 10:25:51 AM EDT
[#15]
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Quoted:



Clearly it solved all the problems in Iraq.

What could go wrong with invading and occupying a country:

-3.5 times as large as Iraq by surface area
-with terrain far less favorable for an invader
-with 2.5 times the population
-a population that is far more homogenous and far more likely to rally around its leadership than that of Iraq if invaded
-that actually does have some form of WMD
-that we haven't been overflying daily and bombing periodically for the past 12 years

Glad I'm retired.  Have fun with that.
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Quoted:
Quoted:
Violence has solved every problem known to man, it will work in this situation also.



Clearly it solved all the problems in Iraq.

What could go wrong with invading and occupying a country:

-3.5 times as large as Iraq by surface area
-with terrain far less favorable for an invader
-with 2.5 times the population
-a population that is far more homogenous and far more likely to rally around its leadership than that of Iraq if invaded
-that actually does have some form of WMD
-that we haven't been overflying daily and bombing periodically for the past 12 years

Glad I'm retired.  Have fun with that.


Iraq failed for several reasons that we could easily avoid by not trying to rebuild and democracize everything.  

The punitive expedition has value in this context.  The USAF crows about how capable they are.  Let them take a whack at it.  We buy deep penetrating bunker buster bombs...function check them.  Every structure is vulnerable as every structure has access points and requires a way to get in and out.  Close the exits, collapse the entrances, and it is a mission kill until the air runs out or fire spreads.  

It sucks.  The AF would take some serious hits.  

Link Posted: 3/30/2015 10:26:10 AM EDT
[#16]
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Quoted:
There is a mighty big difference between chemical weapons and nuclear warheads.  I think you know this.  
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Quoted:
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No, I can not see that scenario. Not realistically.


Neville Chamberlain had the same problem.


Irrelevant.  Hitler was actually invading countries when Chamberlain made his error.  Iran has the ability to do what the say and haven't been using it.
There is a mighty big difference between chemical weapons and nuclear warheads.  I think you know this.  


In a nation the size and pop density of Israel, with the proxies Iran has at its disposal, not much.
Link Posted: 3/30/2015 10:27:40 AM EDT
[#17]
Remember Iraq's nuclear program???? I thought so.......
Link Posted: 3/30/2015 10:28:52 AM EDT
[#18]
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Remember Iraq's nuclear program???? I thought so.......
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The one that was consolidated into one above ground location?  So similar to Iran.
Link Posted: 3/30/2015 10:29:53 AM EDT
[#19]
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"No one wants to die. Even people who want to go to heaven don't want to die to get there."
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Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
When your enemy tells you exactly what they are going to do to you, when they are capable, it behooves you to listen and believe them.  

Khrushchev banged his shoe on the table at the UN and shouted 'WE WILL BURY YOU!'

No one felt the need to wet their pants and press the red button.


*They* didn't because we had a credible deterrent in the form of overmatch.  They looked at the balance sheets, crunched the numbers, and came to the conclusion they couldn't "win" without catastrophic losses.

The theocracy in Iran may not be so restrained, and nobody can guarantee the regime won't make a disasterous miscalculation in the future once they become part of The Club.  


"No one wants to die. Even people who want to go to heaven don't want to die to get there."


Whoever said that never fought in the ME.  I've seen plenty of people that sought out their death as martyrdom.  I had to help pick up pieces of a couple of them.  

That quote completely fails to comprehend the willingness of a religion to sacrafice for an eventual goal.  This is not about Iran or Iraq.  It is a global islamic movement with specific goals that would sacrafice any single country without blinking if that sacrafice furthered their goals.

Martyrs are celebrated.  Parents are proud when their children martyr themselves.  It isn't a bad thing in their culture...it is welcomed and encouraged.  That is the direct opposite of the Russian example and why the two don't line up.
Link Posted: 3/30/2015 10:30:17 AM EDT
[#20]

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Quoted:
"No one wants to die. Even people who want to go to heaven don't want to die to get there."
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Quoted:



Quoted:


Quoted:


Quoted:

When your enemy tells you exactly what they are going to do to you, when they are capable, it behooves you to listen and believe them.  



Khrushchev banged his shoe on the table at the UN and shouted 'WE WILL BURY YOU!'



No one felt the need to wet their pants and press the red button.




*They* didn't because we had a credible deterrent in the form of overmatch.  They looked at the balance sheets, crunched the numbers, and came to the conclusion they couldn't "win" without catastrophic losses.



The theocracy in Iran may not be so restrained, and nobody can guarantee the regime won't make a disasterous miscalculation in the future once they become part of The Club.  




"No one wants to die. Even people who want to go to heaven don't want to die to get there."
Said no suicide bomber, ever.  

 
Link Posted: 3/30/2015 10:30:22 AM EDT
[#21]
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Please present evidence that supports this assertion
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Quoted:
Quoted: The leadership of Iran does not have that quality.


Please present evidence that supports this assertion


Are you fucking serious?
Link Posted: 3/30/2015 10:32:02 AM EDT
[#22]
So we shouldn't attack the bad men because they hide while they do bad things?

Link Posted: 3/30/2015 10:36:47 AM EDT
[#23]
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IF we intend to stop Iran from developing a nuke, the only real solution is to blow shit up.

If blowing shit up is too much a stretch we'd better get used to a nuclear armed Iran, and that leads to a nuclear armed Saudi Arabia too.
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That's pretty much my understanding of things.
Link Posted: 3/30/2015 10:37:55 AM EDT
[#24]
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Quoted:

Khrushchev banged his shoe on the table at the UN and shouted 'WE WILL BURY YOU!'

No one felt the need to wet their pants and press the red button.
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Quoted:
Quoted:
When your enemy tells you exactly what they are going to do to you, when they are capable, it behooves you to listen and believe them.  

Khrushchev banged his shoe on the table at the UN and shouted 'WE WILL BURY YOU!'

No one felt the need to wet their pants and press the red button.


Where are we now? A socialist state. One of the most free socialist states. But for how long?
I'm not saying Russia being bombed would have saved us. But when you enemy tells you something you ought to listen.
Link Posted: 3/30/2015 10:39:56 AM EDT
[#25]
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Quoted:


Are you fucking serious?
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Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted: The leadership of Iran does not have that quality.


Please present evidence that supports this assertion


Are you fucking serious?


Yes.  If you can.
Link Posted: 3/30/2015 10:40:15 AM EDT
[#26]
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Quoted:


Are you fucking serious?
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Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted: The leadership of Iran does not have that quality.


Please present evidence that supports this assertion


Are you fucking serious?


Yes, he's fucking serious. I bet you dont know a thing about Iran that you havent seen/learned from the TV.

Fuck the Ayatollahs and the regime in Iran, but 95% of whats on American TV, misses the mark. All the 'wipe Israel off the map' comments and 'death to America' chants are for domestic consumption of the useful idiots (both in Iran and the U.S.). Khamenei and his regime are actually quite pragmatic and will not launch a war or undertake actions that will destroy themselves.
Link Posted: 3/30/2015 10:41:06 AM EDT
[#27]
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Quoted:
IF we intend to stop Iran from developing a nuke, the only real solution is to blow shit up.

If blowing shit up is too much a stretch we'd better get used to a nuclear armed Iran, and that leads to a nuclear armed Saudi Arabia too.
View Quote


More arab states besides Saudi Arabia will go nuclear as soon as they can. And these states aren't precisely stable. It's a god damned miracle that Pakistan appears to have been able to keep track of its nukes this long.

But yes, this is a binary solution set with two and only two very shitty choices. My money is on accepting nuclear proliferation, as its the most cowardly choice.

I look forward to watching the spin doctors try to keep a straight face while they attempt to convince the world that a nuclear middle east is somehow a good thing. I expect lots of synonyms for 'fair' like somehow that means something when you're talking about destroying cities.
Link Posted: 3/30/2015 10:41:18 AM EDT
[#28]
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Quoted:
I have a simple solution, and it involves thermodynamics and a whole lotta glass
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Link Posted: 3/30/2015 10:41:58 AM EDT
[#29]
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Quoted:
Whoever said that never fought in the ME.  I've seen plenty of people that sought out their death as martyrdom.  I had to help pick up pieces of a couple of them.  

That quote completely fails to comprehend the willingness of a religion to sacrafice for an eventual goal.  This is not about Iran or Iraq.  It is a global islamic movement with specific goals that would sacrafice any single country without blinking if that sacrafice furthered their goals.

Martyrs are celebrated.  Parents are proud when their children martyr themselves.  It isn't a bad thing in their culture...it is welcomed and encouraged.  That is the direct opposite of the Russian example and why the two don't line up.
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The dirt farmers and morons of the middle east don't matter in this analysis.  Show me Ayatollah Khomeini's willingness to become a martyr, and you'll have a point.
Link Posted: 3/30/2015 10:42:45 AM EDT
[#30]
The minority populations sure as hell did. Of course Baghdad was populated with regime supporters and the cameras never moved out to the hinterlands. Perception becomes reality.
Link Posted: 3/30/2015 10:43:39 AM EDT
[#31]
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Quoted:


The dirt farmers and morons of the middle east don't matter in this analysis.  Show me Ayatollah Khomeini's willingness to become a martyr, and you'll have a point.
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Quoted:
Quoted:
Whoever said that never fought in the ME.  I've seen plenty of people that sought out their death as martyrdom.  I had to help pick up pieces of a couple of them.  

That quote completely fails to comprehend the willingness of a religion to sacrafice for an eventual goal.  This is not about Iran or Iraq.  It is a global islamic movement with specific goals that would sacrafice any single country without blinking if that sacrafice furthered their goals.

Martyrs are celebrated.  Parents are proud when their children martyr themselves.  It isn't a bad thing in their culture...it is welcomed and encouraged.  That is the direct opposite of the Russian example and why the two don't line up.


The dirt farmers and morons of the middle east don't matter in this analysis.  Show me Ayatollah Khomeini's willingness to become a martyr, and you'll have a point.


I'm pleasantly shocked and impressed at the level of intellect and analysis in GD today.
Link Posted: 3/30/2015 10:43:54 AM EDT
[#32]
It's a good thing Jimmy Carter was so nice to Iran. Imagine what might have happened if he'd been mean to them.
Link Posted: 3/30/2015 10:44:26 AM EDT
[#33]
Link Posted: 3/30/2015 10:45:52 AM EDT
[#34]
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Quoted:


Give it a few minutes and you'll feel normal again.
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Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Whoever said that never fought in the ME.  I've seen plenty of people that sought out their death as martyrdom.  I had to help pick up pieces of a couple of them.  

That quote completely fails to comprehend the willingness of a religion to sacrafice for an eventual goal.  This is not about Iran or Iraq.  It is a global islamic movement with specific goals that would sacrafice any single country without blinking if that sacrafice furthered their goals.

Martyrs are celebrated.  Parents are proud when their children martyr themselves.  It isn't a bad thing in their culture...it is welcomed and encouraged.  That is the direct opposite of the Russian example and why the two don't line up.


The dirt farmers and morons of the middle east don't matter in this analysis.  Show me Ayatollah Khomeini's willingness to become a martyr, and you'll have a point.


I'm pleasantly shocked and impressed at the level of intellect and analysis in GD today.


Give it a few minutes and you'll feel normal again.


lol
Link Posted: 3/30/2015 10:46:03 AM EDT
[#35]
Iran may talk tough but there is no way a country is going to throw away it's future for a chance to destroy Israel.  

Just like how NK hasn't attacked south.  People in power like to stay in power.
Link Posted: 3/30/2015 10:48:29 AM EDT
[#36]
Maybe our next president will have the balls to take a hard line with them, instead of settling for a modern day Munich Agreement just so he can claim to have a deal.
Link Posted: 3/30/2015 10:50:22 AM EDT
[#37]
Sometimes the problem with bombing, is you simply aren't bombing enough.
Link Posted: 3/30/2015 10:51:47 AM EDT
[#38]
Obama needs to address the Iranian legislators.
Link Posted: 3/30/2015 10:52:50 AM EDT
[#39]
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I heard a guy say that he was abducted by aliens...
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I heard a guy say there are 4 known facilities right now, that if hit with ordnance we have now, would put them back as much as 10 years.  


I heard a guy say that he was abducted by aliens...


I heard a guy say that he would like to wipe Israel off the map. He was kind of a powerful guy, running a powerful government...in Iran even. And they want nukes. Meh, it'll probably be fine.
Link Posted: 3/30/2015 10:57:55 AM EDT
[#40]
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Quoted:

       
       
Use the same strategy that Reagan used with the Soviets, such as:
- Bankrupt them.   Make it tough for them to get credit, make financial transactions.  
- Threaten to bomb/invade them.  Make them spend money/resources in defense.  
- Increase sanctions.  Make it tough on their economy.  
- Isolate them.  Make it tough for them to travel to developed countries.  
 
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Quoted:

       
Quoted:

Khrushchev banged his shoe on the table at the UN and shouted 'WE WILL BURY YOU!'

No one felt the need to wet their pants and press the red button.

       
Quoted:

I'M ALL EARS WHAT'S YOUR PLAN?

Use the same strategy that Reagan used with the Soviets, such as:
- Bankrupt them.   Make it tough for them to get credit, make financial transactions.  
- Threaten to bomb/invade them.  Make them spend money/resources in defense.  
- Increase sanctions.  Make it tough on their economy.  
- Isolate them.  Make it tough for them to travel to developed countries.  
 


So you mean, send sternly worded letters.
Link Posted: 3/30/2015 10:58:21 AM EDT
[#41]
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Are you fucking serious?
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Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted: The leadership of Iran does not have that quality.


Please present evidence that supports this assertion


Are you fucking serious?


Iran's radical Islamist government has been saying death to Israel for decades.  They have had chemical and bio WMD's (or the ability to make them) for decades.   They have not used those weapons even once.  In a a country the size of Israel they could kill hundreds of thousands with chemical weapons if they used them.

They have not.

If Iran's leadership is nothing but the suicidal rabid dog that you think it is they would have done it a long time ago. Instead they have acted through proxies (Hezbollah) and engaged in terror activity but NOT nation destroying activity.  This strongly implies that Iran is a rational actor and it's regime wants to stay alive and in power.

Rhetoric is just that.

Posted Via AR15.Com Mobile
Link Posted: 3/30/2015 10:58:45 AM EDT
[#42]
Quoted:
It would be bloody, destabilizing and help drive Tehran’s nuclear program underground

Iran hawks are playing with fire. We are close to a nuclear deal with Iran, but opponents continue to step up attacks aimed at torpedoing efforts to reach a settlement. They insist that we must walk away from the negotiating table, and that there’s a better deal to be had.

That belief is a fantasy

Vice President Dick Cheney even once said, “We don’t negotiate with evil; we defeat it.” The results? Negotiations collapsed and Iran went from only a few installed centrifuges at the beginning of the Bush administration to about 6,000 by the end
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Bottom line is that Iran, and many other countries, learned the lessons of Osirak quite well.  Disperse, hide, and harden, electronically isolate. get hacked anyway.
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Yes, yes they have.
Link Posted: 3/30/2015 10:59:39 AM EDT
[#43]
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Clearly it solved all the problems in Iraq.

What could go wrong with invading and occupying a country:

-3.5 times as large as Iraq by surface area
-with terrain far less favorable for an invader
-with 2.5 times the population
-a population that is far more homogenous and far more likely to rally around its leadership than that of Iraq if invaded
-that actually does have some form of WMD
-that we haven't been overflying daily and bombing periodically for the past 12 years

Glad I'm retired.  Have fun with that.
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Violence has solved every problem known to man, it will work in this situation also.



Clearly it solved all the problems in Iraq.

What could go wrong with invading and occupying a country:

-3.5 times as large as Iraq by surface area
-with terrain far less favorable for an invader
-with 2.5 times the population
-a population that is far more homogenous and far more likely to rally around its leadership than that of Iraq if invaded
-that actually does have some form of WMD
-that we haven't been overflying daily and bombing periodically for the past 12 years

Glad I'm retired.  Have fun with that.


Not much of a history buff, huh?
Link Posted: 3/30/2015 11:01:17 AM EDT
[#44]
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"No one wants to die. Even people who want to go to heaven don't want to die to get there."
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When your enemy tells you exactly what they are going to do to you, when they are capable, it behooves you to listen and believe them.  

Khrushchev banged his shoe on the table at the UN and shouted 'WE WILL BURY YOU!'

No one felt the need to wet their pants and press the red button.


*They* didn't because we had a credible deterrent in the form of overmatch.  They looked at the balance sheets, crunched the numbers, and came to the conclusion they couldn't "win" without catastrophic losses.

The theocracy in Iran may not be so restrained, and nobody can guarantee the regime won't make a disasterous miscalculation in the future once they become part of The Club.  


"No one wants to die. Even people who want to go to heaven don't want to die to get there."


LOL
Link Posted: 3/30/2015 11:02:22 AM EDT
[#45]
... stay out of Iran



Kick that can of sunshine down the road and hope your kids are better at dealing with them than our current Administration
Link Posted: 3/30/2015 11:02:51 AM EDT
[#46]
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There is a mighty big difference between chemical weapons and nuclear warheads.  I think you know this.  
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They are regularly hit with rockets supplied by Iran and other bad actors.  Can you really not see a scenario where Iran falls into the hands of even worse actors than they have now?  The ones who call for Israel's annihilation?  


No, I can not see that scenario. Not realistically.


Neville Chamberlain had the same problem.


Irrelevant.  Hitler was actually invading countries when Chamberlain made his error.  Iran has the ability to do what the say and haven't been using it.
There is a mighty big difference between chemical weapons and nuclear warheads.  I think you know this.  


It appears he is avoiding anything that doesn't fit into his world view.
Link Posted: 3/30/2015 11:03:12 AM EDT
[#47]
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"No one wants to die. Even people who want to go to heaven don't want to die to get there."
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When your enemy tells you exactly what they are going to do to you, when they are capable, it behooves you to listen and believe them.  

Khrushchev banged his shoe on the table at the UN and shouted 'WE WILL BURY YOU!'

No one felt the need to wet their pants and press the red button.


*They* didn't because we had a credible deterrent in the form of overmatch.  They looked at the balance sheets, crunched the numbers, and came to the conclusion they couldn't "win" without catastrophic losses.

The theocracy in Iran may not be so restrained, and nobody can guarantee the regime won't make a disasterous miscalculation in the future once they become part of The Club.  


"No one wants to die. Even people who want to go to heaven don't want to die to get there."


The question is, do the members of the regime believe they would pay the price personally for such a decision, or do they think they can use a nuclear device-even by proxy-to achieve a desired end-state and survive?

Do they value the lives of their countrymen, or are they willing to martyer them believing in their minds they will go to Paradise?

I don't buy into the "rational actor" sales pitch justifying a "do nothing" approach by this or any other administration.      

Link Posted: 3/30/2015 11:03:33 AM EDT
[#48]
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It appears he is avoiding anything that doesn't fit into his world view.
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Neville Chamberlain had the same problem.


Irrelevant.  Hitler was actually invading countries when Chamberlain made his error.  Iran has the ability to do what the say and haven't been using it.
There is a mighty big difference between chemical weapons and nuclear warheads.  I think you know this.  


It appears he is avoiding anything that doesn't fit into his world view.


It appears that you couldn't be bothered to read my answer before posting.  Or that you don't have a good grasp of geography.
Link Posted: 3/30/2015 11:04:02 AM EDT
[#49]
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The dirt farmers and morons of the middle east don't matter in this analysis.  Show me Ayatollah Khomeini's willingness to become a martyr, and you'll have a point.
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Whoever said that never fought in the ME.  I've seen plenty of people that sought out their death as martyrdom.  I had to help pick up pieces of a couple of them.  

That quote completely fails to comprehend the willingness of a religion to sacrafice for an eventual goal.  This is not about Iran or Iraq.  It is a global islamic movement with specific goals that would sacrafice any single country without blinking if that sacrafice furthered their goals.

Martyrs are celebrated.  Parents are proud when their children martyr themselves.  It isn't a bad thing in their culture...it is welcomed and encouraged.  That is the direct opposite of the Russian example and why the two don't line up.


The dirt farmers and morons of the middle east don't matter in this analysis.  Show me Ayatollah Khomeini's willingness to become a martyr, and you'll have a point.



You think Khomeini is actually in charge at the micro and macro level.  How cute.
Link Posted: 3/30/2015 11:04:08 AM EDT
[#50]
We'd be better off fomenting regime change subversively in Iran.
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