Some Cliff Notes:

Weiss internal poll:

73.4% say Congress SuperCommittee will not agree to a deficit reduction plan before 11/23
83% say even if committee agrees to a plan, it will not be passed by full Congress
Most say consequences for not passing a plan will be devestating

Zogby:

Results of Weiss poll are consistent with Zogby's polls.
89% of voters concerned US economy will go into another recession
96% of investors concerned US economy will go into another recession

Americans approval rating of Congress: 13%
Americans approval rating of OJ Simpson: 16%
Americans approval rating of Ben Bernanke: 21% (6% approval among Republicans)
Americans approval rating of Bank of America: 18%
Americans approval rating of Goldman Sachs: 15%

Summation: people are disgusted with Congress, and it will continue.

Very annoying video. No fast-forward or rewind.

Disclaimer: I did not watch entire video

Very annoying video. No fast-forward or rewind.

Agreed, and thanks for the stenographic work on the Cliff's Notes!

I know it's difficult, but, being a practitioner of The Principle Of The Free Mind, I strive at disciplining myself to give unprejudiced consideration to any information or perspective.

IMO, Weiss et al  would make himself out to be less of an irritant and, thereby, win more customers, if he laid off the 'sticky' sell tactics. The way I tolerate this sort of media is; I allow it to play without actually watching it while reading data addressing the same points. This allows me to quickly cross-check and weigh the veracity of info from different sources.

Piercing opinion from yet another of Cassandra's Sons;

it's not healthy to challenge peoples long held beliefs.

when evidence is produced to the contrary of their beliefs, it will be rejected out of hand and counter points will be presented, which will be rejected out of hand by the other side.

so you see, it will all come crashing down (eventually).

as Abraham Lincoln said, "A house divided can not stand."

the whole world is dividing, slowly, but steadily.

communists against capitalists, Muslims against Christians, poor against rich, uneducated against the educated( by population statistics)  

so challenging anyone on this or any other board is pointless aside from making yourself feel better. you're not going to sway anyone with facts and witty comments.

there is them and us and vise versa .

buy by all means continue, for there is nothing else to do, but the result is preordained.

The committee has already decided that if they cannot come to an agreement and they have to go to the automatic cuts, they will go to Congress to change the auto cuts, as they are too devastating.

-Too little...

The auto-cut mechanism amounts to a sort of fiscal Reset Button which, if triggered upon failure of the Congressional Supercommittee to achieve budgetary agreement, instantaneously reduces Federal spending by 1.2 Trillion Dollars over the next 10 years






What is required is at least 10 times the targeted *sigh* "spending reductions". The aforementioned notwithstanding, the math alarm bells and unfolding events sirens are signaling ever more loudly by the day that we are going to get there: THE HARD WAY.

The committee has only held a couple of public meetings. Almost all have been behind closed and sealed doors.
Those on the committee have had huge increases in their reelection contributions in the last two months.
They are bought off and will not make any changes of note.

1.2 trillion over 10 years is 120 billion per year. The deficit is going up more than twice that each year so they aren't cutting anything but the growth in the deficit.

And they can't even agree on that.

They all need to be replaced.

X-Ring, dead center.

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-Right on schedule. And, yes, this is real trouble...




Insight: U.S. readies defenses against Europe spillover




Relax folks; we're now poised on the precipice of a global financial mega-catastrophe which will, via a potential implosion of the Primary Dealer System, ultimately threaten the collapse of the USD/UST Liquidity Complex -the true seat of American power.    

I would have to disagree with the outcome of the dollar. It is my belief now more than ever that the US dollar will grow stronger. With the prediction that the Euro and the EU will be gone in the near future, I can only see the US dollar dominating every currency in an unstable environment.





 

Here lies These United States of America, murdered in 1913.

ML, beyond what has already been said––


––By previous president GW Bush: "...We could enter into depression greater than the Great Depression."

and current president BH Obama: "...More Americans will lose their jobs, more families will lose their savings, more dreams will be deferred and denied, and our nation will sink deeper into a crisis that at some point, we may not be able to reverse."




ETA:

Personally, I don't know what to say, except that, despite knowing that the data has, since 2001, literally been screaming the advent of this financial cataclysm, it is nonetheless astonishing to me that the Great Financial Crisis of the 21st Century has come as close to imploding the global economy as developing events indicate.

That would be true - IF it wasn't being continuously devalued.  For the Dollar to be a safehaven, it has to have a predictable and consistent value.



 

Is Spain the next domino in EU contagion?
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Spanish Bond Yields Pass 6% For First Time Since August

There is that thing we said about the European "communicating vessels/whack-a-mole" - the second one is down, several others pop up. Today, it is Spain's turn, whose 10 Year bond yield just passed 6%: the first time it has done so since August 5. The catalyst was the discovery earlier that Spanish bank borrowings from the ECB rose to €76 billion ($104.1 billion) in October, the highest level in more than a year, as the ECB remains the LOLR contrary to Jen Weidmann's claims to the opposite. So which bonds does the ECB buy next? When we said last week that Mario Draghi should hire all the fired bond traders from UBS, RBS, HSBC and Jefferies we were not kidding.

This is great description of the discussion this long thread has embodied for YEARS.
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Economic Collapse? We’re Soaking In It!

A rather unobservant or at the very least “unlucky” man strolls across a faulty bridge; weathered, termite ridden, and over-traveled. He hops and skips and jumps about like a brain damaged orangutan without a care in the world. He does this not only because he is oblivious to the fundamental physics behind the workings of the bridge, and the structural signs of a bridge that is on the verge of collapse, but also because numerous highly paid “experts” on bridges have told him it is absolutely safe to do so. The bridge, of course, crumbles right under his feet, and he falls.

Now, if the ground was relatively close to our unfortunate freefalling dupe, the sudden collapse and the painful shock of smacking into the rocky floor would be an understandable surprise. Given only moments between the failure of the bridge and the ultimate conclusion of the spine crunching granite bottom swan dive, one could hardly ponder the situation at all. However, in this event, the ground is not close. In fact, the ravine is dark, and the fall is long. Perhaps three or four years long. In this case, a man has plenty of time to think through the circumstances of his predicament, and realize that eventually, he WILL meet the future like a warm pancake smacking cold linoleum at 200 mph.

If such a man is unable to discern the problems he faces, or to even acknowledge the fact that the ground has given way beneath him, after such a long stretch of time, it becomes very hard to feel sorry for him. But then again, we were all like this man once…

Since the derivatives and housing market implosion of 2008, America and the rest of the world has been spiraling down a chasm some in this country still refuse to take note of. The question has never been whether there “will be” a full scale financial disaster. The end to that chapter of this story was already written years ago. Rather, the real question has been “when” will this inevitable event culminate? Sadly, speculation on the matter has met an irreconcilable road block. The fact is, all the necessary elements are in place to bring down our fiscal shelter not in five years, not in one year, not in six months, but today. That’s right…..the economy as we know it has the potential to derail completely before you wake up for your morning poptart.

Some skeptics might shrug off this statement as mere sensationalism for effect. I wish that were the case. Frankly, I would enjoy writing a little fiction for once. The truth is far too bizarre and disturbing lately.

In the case of economics, traditional views and standards have gone completely out the window in a way that I and probably every other analyst in the field have never heard of or encountered. All expectations are now null and void. Manipulation of the marketplace is no longer a subversive and secretive process, but open government and central banking policy! Who could have guessed five years ago, for instance, that U.S. taxpayers would be saddled with bailouts of the EU? Who could have predicted that global stock market psychology would be dominated for over a year by the debt drama of a country as economically insignificant as Greece? And, who could have foreseen that destructive fiat stimulus policies would soon be common knowledge events amongst the citizens of various faltering nations?

Liberty Movement analysts have been sounding the warning alarm for a long time on the possible consequences of Federal Reserve actions as well as government expansion, but to witness the scale of the fraud being unleashed and the brazen manner in which it is being implemented is something else entirely. Even now, the sheer scope of the systemic collapse is breaking into territory that may not be fully understood for decades to come.

That said, no one with any common sense or eyes to see can deny that the bridge has indeed given way. What awaits us when we finally hit bottom is hard to say, but it doesn’t take a soothsayer to predict an unpleasant outcome.

As the process of destabilization unfolds, the best we can do is stay attuned to political and financial shifts that often go underreported in the mainstream media. This gives us the ability to gauge the nature and speed of the crisis so that we can move to guard ourselves effectively when the time comes. Even the smallest morsel of information can have incredible significance. These holes in the fog are brief, but they reveal much. Some of this data signals a new and powerful wave of change on the horizon, a startling chapter which may be the last for the ailing economy as we know it…

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More at the link

But can enough be replaced in time, peacefully?



I don't think so.



 

30% of the citizens of this country are actively working for its destruction, another 30% don't care. I have my doubts about us turning anything around in time to save this country.

If Bernanke or his replacement uses QE to fend off the market tumble from the Euro/EU/Bank crisis ahead, it will push people and Governments away from the dollar.
If things are allowed to fall as they may, the dollar will become very strong. A very strong dollar means there will be very little value in the markets in the short term setting off panic and fear. Thus allowing our "recession" to come out in the open again. Once bottom is hit and things start up again (assuming we don't lose the next big war), it will be up to the Fed to help make credit risky like it's supposed to be which will help them keep their stable prices mandate (I happen to think this is a very important one), up to the people to realize that walking around with the debt collar is no way to live, up to the new banks to not follow in the footsteps of the old banks, and up to the Government to stay out of the way when another recession hits (They are necessary in a credit driven economy). If all that happens we can avoid the inflation of another super ultra mega free easy loan cheap money credit bubble.
^^^^^^My pipe dream for today^^^^^^
We have a choice to fuck ourselves and come out of the mess a stronger country or to be fucked very hard and rough by everyone and come out weaker and more divided. This is where the politics really matter and why I see the latter happening.
 

Brought this up numerous times:

Congress Must IMMEDIATELY Pass HR 1148: The "Stop Trading On Congressional Knowledge" Act





The only solution(s) are:

Term limits and retirement comensature with term served - meaning if you are limited to and serve two terms you get retirement based on 8 years of a 20 year retirement.  You want the other 12?  Join one branch of the service.

Some form of campaign contribution reform, mostly on the end user side.  Your campaign contributions MUST NOT be allowed to be a slush fund for hookers and blow.

Hedging can't "limit the true size of any loss". There's always someone(s) on the other side of the trade. The size of the various parts may differ, but the sum is what it is.

The citizens of this country have no idea of how corrupt and rotten our gov't officials are.
Money determines the ethics.

More commentary on debt saturation - this time worldwide debt saturation

Additionally, unless I read the article wrong, unfunded liabilities ARE NOT considered in the debt calculations.

That is correct, one set of accounting laws for us, another set for the King

You made an assumption

He Said "Peacefully."

And yet the US dollar still above the $71-72 DXY line. In fact it has been constantly moving up in value even with mass printing. The Fed have failed to devalued the dollar to $0 because there is really no where the world can go expect the dollar. Also every major nations devalued their own currency to keep up with us.



If the Euro is gone as expected I will not be surprise the dollar go well over $100 and silver prices down dramatically. Gold price is unknown because it hold well against a raising dollar as seen in the past. A high dollar suck for US export tho.



 

To an extent, yes, "It's good to be the King."

These so-called "unfunded liabilities" are NOT debt. The reason is, for example, Medicare and Social Security promises are just that. They can be changed or eliminated totally by the Congress. This is unlike REAL debt, which must be paid down, paid off, interest paid, etc.

The scary part is that the Congress seems unwilling to even acknowledge that we CANNOT pay for these promises. Period. And, other people are steadfastly holding to the belief that they are inviolate or even increased/expanded. They seem to care not one whit that declaring them "off limits" for reductions absolutely, without a doubt, dooms this country.

P.S. There is no such thing as an "entitlement". No one is "entitled" to my hard earned dollars. No one is "entitled" to receive that which they have not earned. No one can rightfully be forced to give to another. Notice I said "rightfully"...

I suspect he speaks for the general public as well, under certain condx.

"People, we're already in a 2nd Great Depression,"


How long have I been telling you all this????

Without the .gov subsidies the past 10 years or so, the economic condx in the US would make the GD-1 look like an economic boom!

When will folks think and listen???

There IS!!!!

It's called maintaining the SHEEPLES' CONFIDENCE!

Watch the market in this context and you might be surprised.

"...murdered in 1913"

Well, sorta...

You need to add...

By it's own greedy citizens who chose to watch nonsense on their flatscreen, consume copious amounts of food, booze and drugs, and pay no attention to their CIVIC DUTIES as their country was stolen right from under their noses...

...while the hope for the Nation, their kids, were dumbed down in grotesque public school systems, and indoctrinated easily after so many were prescribed psycotropic drugs so they would be easy to CONTROL [at school AND at home by willing parents].

Sickening, huh???

I agree. and stop the deficit spending and the GDP drops 12%

European Debt Crisis: "You Haven't Seen Anything Yet"

http://www.cnbc.com/id/45288956

"Nobody wants to be that person to get up there and say this is going to be about four or five more years to really work through all this stuff," says Robert "Hap" Sneddon, portfolio manager at CastleMoore, an Ontario-based investment firm. "That's why there's a disconnect between what's good for us today and what's good for us two years from now."


MSM assholes stealing my lines....

Problem is these clowns thinking this will be resolved in 4 or 5 years shows they don't have a FRIGGIN CLUE as to what's going on or economics in GENERAL.



Expect living standards to DECLINE except where there is USEFUL PRODUCTIVITY.

[Hint... there ain't gonna be enough U-P in the US to maintain L-S by a long shot]

[The relatively high L-S we see DECLINING were previously SUPPORTED by all that DEBT you guys keep talkin abt]

More like 20%+ if you consider all the ramifications. Maybe more...

We're screwed because the .gov CAN'T KEEP SPENDING FOREVER!

Agreed. I was just talking about immediate effect from lack of govt spending. 12% of our GDP IS deficit spent

yep,      If the EURO manages to exist in ten years it will be at parity or below.  People forget that inflation wont last forever. People in the middle class start noticing they will vote to do something about it. I think it is already happening on the groceries .  Im finally starting to hear decent earning people bitch about the price of food. Dollar will slingshot through the roof.  Doesn't help us much right now with inflationary price increases but as before wages will eventually catch up to that.    
 

Quick question for you guys.
Lets say we fire Obama, congress starts cutting spending, pressure for higher interest rates go down in response, employment improves, ect ect through 2013.  We will still have big debt but  the deficits get on a path to becoming a surplus over lets say 5-10 years and economic growth increases.
Will you guys still think we are on the brink of this big collapse you are all waiting for?

 

The ONLY way employment improves is if demand for products and services increases enough for companies to not be able to meet and they hire employees.

I don't see that happening. There are 3 major problems that are not being addresses. Govt debt levels, Personal debt levels and the trade deficit.

1) What will the national debt be in 5-10yrs by the time we're running this unlikely surplus?
2) What will the interest payment alone on the national debt be at this time?
3) What will be the economic engine for this recovery?
4) What cuts, specifically, will account for the 40%+ reduction in Federal spending needed to reach this surplus?
5) What politician is going to commit political suicide by advocating cuts in entitlement spending (SS, Medicare, etc)?
6) What percentage of the entitlement crowd is going to vote for someone promising to cut their benefits?

Sorry, that's like being on the Titanic after it hits the iceberg and saying "Well, what if the damage *isn't* enough to make us sink?"
The damage *has* been done and no amount of "what if" can erase the hard, cold math of today (oversimplification):
Our "family" makes $20,000/yr, is spending $36,000/yr, has run up $146,000 in debt with those in charge of the budget (on both sides of the aisle) unwilling to make any real cuts in spending.
Heck, even if this farce of a "supercommittee" fails to meet the deadline and the automatic cuts kick in, it's only $1.2T *over 10yrs* and they're already making noises about changing even that minor reduction.
Add in the international threats to our economy and I don't see how this country avoid what's happened throughout history to other countries that have already trod a similar path.

I would dearly love to see us recover but I'm still waiting (I've asked several times before) for someone to present a practical plan to do so that has any real chance of being passed & implemented.
Until I see such a plan, I'm going with the math...
Tomac

Consider the following:





I'd have to assume you've cut about $1-1.5 Trillion annually or you've massively raised taxes on everyone and everything for something like that to happen.  That's a negative 6-10% of GDP.

So, if that were to happen, you've have a bunch of pissed off people - those affected by the massive cuts and/or those paying a huge amount of taxes.

The cuts, along with the pain associated with the cuts, have to come.  They will not come without pain and anger.  The result of the pain and anger is the question.

On top of all of that, interest rates have to return to some norm.  ZIRP cannot last forever.  This extended manipulation of the interest rate market is creating it's own kind of unavoidable pain down the road.  We have yet to see the pain from this.


Surplus = Skittles shitting unicorn IMO.  Even during the Clinton years, the "surplus" was an accounting gimmick.  The debt levels still went up even though we had a "surplus".  See here.



So after all of that I see some things you mention possible:

Fire Obama - possible
Congress meaningfully cuts spending - unicorns
Interest rates don't go up - unicorns
Employment improves in the face of massive cuts - unicorns
Surplus in 5-10 years - unicorns

Math, what a cold, heartless, relentless , bitch she is.

Cue the pollyannas

Minor correction

First post nails it!

Our politicians won't do shit until it is way to late, then we get the panic knee jerk reaction and blame game.

We'll just put off victor's suggestion until at least after mid 2013.





Simply put, the economy cannot survive without ZIRP.  We will finish four full years with ZIRP, and with the above prediction finish five and six, with no significant recovery in sight.