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KY, USA
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Posted: 12/3/2023 5:02:52 PM EDT
[Last Edit: grendelbane]
[#1]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By lazyengineer: Personally - politics aside - I think they are way overvalued. Any company with negative earnings looks way overvalued. It does look like it has turned around though. I think it is good for a quick trade. With a 26% short interest it might move up very quickly. As far as politics goes, I have been both long and short various stocks, so I don't pay too much attention to politics, other than if I don't like their politics, they probably won't succeed anyway. |
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Posted: 12/3/2023 8:12:57 PM EDT
[#2]
HA? Alaska airlines announced today they are buying Hawaii airlines for $18/share, stock is just under $5 now. Haven’t seen a timeline for the deal.
I made a few % buying twitter when musk bought them out…. Looking at buying some on the open tomorrow(Monday) morning. |
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Posted: 12/4/2023 8:43:32 AM EDT
[Last Edit: slanted]
[#3]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Morgan321: HA? Alaska airlines announced today they are buying Hawaii airlines for $18/share, stock is just under $5 now. Haven’t seen a timeline for the deal. I made a few % buying twitter when musk bought them out…. Looking at buying some on the open tomorrow(Monday) morning. I see some hurdles with this one going through with regulators. I doubt Hawaiian politicians will be pleased given Hawaiian’s a big employer on Oahu with all the likely redundant HQ staff. Hawaiian has some very unique routes between the islands that’s going to peak interests and concerns. JetBlue / Spirt merger is being fought by the Feds, why wouldn’t they fight this one? One things for sure, it won’t go through quickly, hopefully you can make some bucks and bail. |
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Posted: 12/4/2023 10:38:45 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Morgan321]
[#4]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By slanted: One things for sure, it won’t go through quickly, hopefully you can make some bucks and bail. Well, had some limit orders for the market open today. Closed friday under $5, opened above $13 which was well over my limit price. Bought some anyway in the first minute or two after opening, it's up a couple % in 5 minutes so I made a limit order to sell it all at 1% profit in case it tanks. ETA: I have no intention of keeping in through the buyout and have no idea how long it might take or how much of a sure thing it is. So I brushed up on trailing stop loss orders and Fidelity's fancy "trading dashboard", this is good incentive to learn something new. Market's have been open less than 30 minutes and I've already got almost 4% profit locked in. Just wish I had bought more! ETA2: As I was typing the above ETA the price dipped and it sold at 3.8% profit after 24 minutes. Too bad I can't do that every day! |
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Posted: 12/4/2023 3:58:44 PM EDT
[#5]
Well played!
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Posted: 12/5/2023 12:10:49 PM EDT
[#6]
I picked up some SCHG and am waiting for a good buy in price on SPY. Whole market is freaking me out these days, so I am a little gun shy and am holding some cash in the account for now.
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Posted: 12/5/2023 1:30:53 PM EDT
[#7]
What's the current feel for whether the feds will sue to block the Alaska/Hawaiian merger? I've read the news/analysis but what do y'all think?
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KY, USA
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Posted: 12/5/2023 1:51:12 PM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By JCoop: What's the current feel for whether the feds will sue to block the Alaska/Hawaiian merger? I've read the news/analysis but what do y'all think? Based strictlly on recent mergers and attempted mergers I would not be at all surprised if the regulators didn't do some thing. they seem to be opposed to most everything these days. Gensler is my least favorite bureaucrat. |
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Posted: 12/5/2023 1:51:56 PM EDT
[#9]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By JCoop: What's the current feel for whether the feds will sue to block the Alaska/Hawaiian merger? I've read the news/analysis but what do y'all think? No idea, but whatever happens it won't happen quickly. The $18 buyout price is only 28% above the current $14 price. Huge gamble for a 28% gain given that it'll be easily a year before a buyout could happen. The downside is the stock drops back to the $4 range and you lose around 75% of your money. |
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Posted: 12/5/2023 3:24:15 PM EDT
[#10]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Boedy: Whole market is freaking me out these days, so I am a little gun shy and am holding some cash in the account for now. Most of my stock holdings are starting to wobble. I've had a pretty good run the last couple of months but the hair on the back of my neck is staring to stand up too. 
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Posted: 12/5/2023 5:29:25 PM EDT
[#11]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Waldo: Most of my stock holdings are starting to wobble. I've had a pretty good run the last couple of months but the hair on the back of my neck is staring to stand up too. 
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Posted: 12/5/2023 6:05:57 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Speedwinder]
[#12]
I am not buying or selling much of anything right now. I am still of the opinion that a market pullback is probable over the next six months. I am thinking 70-80% chance.
My portfolios are currently at 33.84% cash, T-bills, and CD's. I may move a bit more into "cash" type holdings, but for me cash type holdings are mainly for loss protection and actually poor long-term investments. I am still dripping dividends. Interesting times! |
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Posted: 12/6/2023 1:47:04 AM EDT
[#13]
Sold my PM today. Decided I'd rather throw it into a growth ETF, since historically I have doubted those.
Stocks/funds north of 6% dividend, what are your favorites? I like AM, and MLPA myself. That return on yield is pretty nice these days. 
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Posted: 12/6/2023 7:53:36 AM EDT
[#14]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Chromekilla: Stocks/funds north of 6% dividend, what are your favorites? I like AM, and MLPA myself. That return on yield is pretty nice these days. I hold quite a bit of AM. It's a little less volatile than the sector as a whole. Of course I really shouldn't use those two words to describe anything in the energy sector, but you get my drift. |
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Posted: 12/6/2023 10:44:23 AM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Waldo: I hold quite a bit of AM. It's a little less volatile than the sector as a whole. Of course I really shouldn't use those two words to describe anything in the energy sector, but you get my drift. I hear you there. Some of my best holdings have been Exxon, BP, Shel/RDSA/RDSB back in the day, Conoco Phillips. Some of my best plays/holdings have been various shipping related stocks. If it isn't shipping/oil/mining/utilities, I've largely not been able to understand the market enough to play. |
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Posted: 12/9/2023 5:02:57 PM EDT
[#16]
What about Pfizer? It is close to a 5 year low, been trending down over a year.
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Posted: 12/9/2023 6:55:18 PM EDT
[#17]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Macumazahn: What about Pfizer? It is close to a 5 year low, been trending down over a year. Yyeeaaa... no. I view Pfizer as pretty much 17th Century Spain right now. They discovered a treasure trove of Silver and got stupid rich; and just stupid. And then declined and would never ever get that kind of wealth again. Not to make this a COVID debate; but I view them as a company with their best years of the 2020's behind them, and a little bit of liability even. And I don't even hate them (unlike many here) - just how I see where they are on the stage right now. |
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Posted: 12/13/2023 12:12:13 AM EDT
[#18]
Thoughts on FSELX for a portion of a portfolio?
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KY, USA
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Posted: 12/13/2023 8:29:57 AM EDT
[#19]
Recent momentum looks good. Expense ratio is a bit high, but not terrible. Might work out well.
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Posted: 12/13/2023 12:00:10 PM EDT
[#20]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By grendelbane: Recent momentum looks good. Expense ratio is a bit high, but not terrible. Might work out well. I'm just trying to throw other things in other than the regular SP500, Total Market Index etc. What about the Fidelty Contra Fund? Granted I know 60% increases, came after a poor 2022, but I think it doesn't take too many of those good cycles to provide some delta to a guys portfolio. |
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Posted: 12/13/2023 9:57:41 PM EDT
[#21]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Chromekilla: Thoughts on FSELX for a portion of a portfolio? IDK, 26% of it is NVIDIA. Nothing wrong with that as long as you're aware of it. |
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TCA
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Posted: 12/18/2023 2:29:45 AM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Chromekilla: Thoughts on FSELX for a portion of a portfolio? SMH. ETF |
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PW, USA
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Posted: 12/18/2023 8:55:37 AM EDT
[Last Edit: HEATSEAKER]
[#23]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 4Teen_R: SMH. ETF Great run up but buying in now might be like arriving late at the kegger a minute before the cops show up. Are we partying like it's 1999? |
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Posted: 12/18/2023 6:27:24 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Speedwinder]
[#24]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By HEATSEAKER: Great run up but buying in now might be like arriving late at the kegger a minute before the cops show up. Are we partying like it's 1999? I own a small amount of SMH and have done well with it so far. I currently have some funds in cash, that I have considered putting into additional SMH. I am still weighing the possibilities. It would seem to me that if/as Powell reduces interest rates, that t-bill and CD rates will also fall, causing some to try to find other places to put the funds to give a good return. Will a substantial part of the cash be returned to stocks driving up the market? I am still not decided, but considering if a flow of funds from cashed out CD's and t-bills will cause a rise in the stock market, including SMH. Thoughts? |
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PW, USA
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Posted: 12/18/2023 8:45:19 PM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Speedwinder: I own a small amount of SMH and have done well with it so far. I currently have some funds in cash, that I have considered putting into additional SMH. I am still weighing the possibilities. It would seem to me that if/as Powell reduces interest rates, that t-bill and CD rates will also fall, causing some to try to find other places to put the funds to give a good return. Will a substantial part of the cash be returned to stocks driving up the market? I am still not decided, but considering if a flow of funds from cashed out CD's and t-bills will cause a rise in the stock market, including SMH. Thoughts? Nothing wrong with DCAing further into SMH since it has already been good to you and would have to fall a lot to erase your gains. We are already starting to see the pivot from fixed income to more speculative assets like crypto and tech and that should continue as long as the economy holds steady without doing TOO well and sparking inflation which will cause the fed to start hiking again. Not likely to apply the brakes in an election year though. I'm definitely heavy in MMF's and like you said these are going to drop like a rock next year with each predicted rate cut so I need to find a home for the cash before it gets trapped in a low rate/overpriced stock market no mans land. I should have locked in some 10yr t-bills when they were over 5%. Income + appreciation as rates get cut. |
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Posted: 12/24/2023 11:37:09 AM EDT
[#26]
Bought another small amount of SMH. This will most likely be the last stock purchase for me for at least several months, other than stocks bought on DRIP. Currently running 34.7% cash, CD's, and T-bills at this time.
I really like to see what "professional" traders have to say. Harry Dent basically says 2024 will be a crash year with stocks dropping substantially, maybe to depression levels. Tom Lee says we are likely to be entering an up year in 2024 and stocks should do well. These are my words based on my take of their ideas for the market in 2024. So, I plan to stay about where I am at with stocks/cash type assets, and see if I can get a sense of what the market will likely do in 2024 as it unfolds. This is probably not a good plan, but it is my plan, at least so far. |
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Posted: 12/24/2023 4:12:07 PM EDT
[#27]
Indexes are at 1-year highs and at or near all-time highs. With all the doom and gloom talk and what anybody can see on the street counting on big gains in 2024 seems like maybe not a safe bet.
I’m seriously considering selling everything and making a scheduled order to put 2% of my money back into the markets throughout 2024. But all it takes is for the fed to blink once and it’ll be off to the races just like the last week or two has been. |
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Posted: 12/24/2023 5:40:45 PM EDT
[#28]
I took some profits this month, but I'm mostly standing pat right now. It's been a pretty good second half for me and that always makes me a bit nervous.
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Posted: 12/24/2023 5:43:33 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Speedwinder]
[#29]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By HEATSEAKER: I'm definitely heavy in MMF's and like you said these are going to drop like a rock next year with each predicted rate cut so I need to find a home for the cash before it gets trapped in a low rate/overpriced stock market no mans land. I should have locked in some 10yr t-bills when they were over 5%. Income + appreciation as rates get cut. Yep, I missed the opportunity to extend some of my t-bills at a higher rate. I should have switched from one-year too longer term t-bills once rates started to fall. Morgan, "With all the doom and gloom talk and what anybody can see on the street counting on big gains in 2024 seems like maybe not a safe bet." Hard to tell Morgan, but I tend to agree. I guess time will tell! |
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Posted: 12/26/2023 3:03:10 PM EDT
[#30]
https://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2023/12/cws-market-review-december-25-2023.html
Here's a pretty interesting website/stock list for 2024. I'm struggling with that to do with my HYSA, various MMF's/treasury etfs. I'm wondering if I should rotate out into t-bills, or CD ladders. Originally I wanted the flexibility on the cash, but I have a feeling its gonna be a rotation out and some folks still holding might get stuck with the bag. Although IDK how that could happen. |
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Posted: 12/27/2023 4:27:47 PM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Chromekilla: https://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2023/12/cws-market-review-december-25-2023.html Here's a pretty interesting website/stock list for 2024. I'm struggling with that to do with my HYSA, various MMF's/treasury etfs. I'm wondering if I should rotate out into t-bills, or CD ladders. Originally I wanted the flexibility on the cash, but I have a feeling its gonna be a rotation out and some folks still holding might get stuck with the bag. Although IDK how that could happen. You can buy the 25 stocks mentioned in your link by buying the ETF with the CWS ticker. High fees...not much better performance than SPY. |
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Posted: 12/27/2023 5:44:59 PM EDT
[#32]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Chromekilla: https://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2023/12/cws-market-review-december-25-2023.html Here's a pretty interesting website/stock list for 2024. I'm struggling with that to do with my HYSA, various MMF's/treasury etfs. I'm wondering if I should rotate out into t-bills, or CD ladders. Originally I wanted the flexibility on the cash, but I have a feeling its gonna be a rotation out and some folks still holding might get stuck with the bag. Although IDK how that could happen. Interesting list. I held some Amphenol for a bit but it just wasn't making me any money at the time and sold it. Polaris, I don't know how anybody can afford to buy those things. |
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Posted: 12/27/2023 8:26:01 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Jarcese]
[#33]
I bought The Buy List last year. I purchased individual stocks and not the ETF. I left off Danneher in 2023 which he's dropping anyway for next year. I did $20k of each stock. I also bought a little QQQ and DCA'd all year into VOO. I added 3 of 4 of my own choices. I'm up over 30% YTD.
I've listened to a few long podcasts with Eddy Elfenbein or however you spell his name. He's pretty thorough and has a good strategy. I didn't want to pay the fees on his ETF. He's been running the portfolio long before he was making money on the ETF. Plus, I think you pay fees on a scale going by returns. I don't think you pay if the ETF returns zero. |
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Posted: 12/28/2023 11:04:05 AM EDT
[#34]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Jarcese: I bought The Buy List last year. I purchased individual stocks and not the ETF. I left off Danneher in 2023 which he's dropping anyway for next year. I did $20k of each stock. I also bought a little QQQ and DCA'd all year into VOO. I added 3 of 4 of my own choices. I'm up over 30% YTD. I've listened to a few long podcasts with Eddy Elfenbein or however you spell his name. He's pretty thorough and has a good strategy. I didn't want to pay the fees on his ETF. He's been running the portfolio long before he was making money on the ETF. Plus, I think you pay fees on a scale going by returns. I don't think you pay if the ETF returns zero. In my IRA, I'm going to buy The Buy List this year, only $1k per stock, put my first $1500 in this morning. Going to buy the same value at the same time of a SP500 index fund. Hoping to have $25k of each bought by the end of the first week of January. |
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Posted: 12/28/2023 11:24:16 AM EDT
[Last Edit: lazyengineer]
[#35]
Considering this thread below, apparently Congess has to disclose their insider trading. So heck,maybe I'll just start buying whatever they are - though I suspect it's too late by the time I see it, and my money is the windfall money they make.
https://www.ar15.com/forums/general/George-Santos-US-Congress-Gets-Classified-Information-and-told-which-stocks-to-buy-/5-2696023/ |
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Posted: 1/4/2024 2:32:01 AM EDT
[#36]
Shipping stocks have been getting it. Really want to get back into LPG and FLNG pretty fierce... They are just damn high over 1 year.
Also decided to start a position for fun in 50% ea URA/URNM 40% XSD, 20% ea SOXQ, SOXX, SMH Will throw some beer money at both each week. |
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Posted: 1/4/2024 12:55:43 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Speedwinder]
[#37]
Over the last couple of weeks I have increased my holdings of SMH and VUG.
I am expecting 2024 to be a more difficult year for the stock markets, but still an okay year depending somewhat on what sectors your investments are mainly centered in. Too many unknowns to make any accurate prediction for the 2024 stock market. I am still keeping my approximately 60/40 split between stocks, and CD's/T-bills and cash. At my somewhat advanced age this seems to be the best course. |
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Posted: 1/12/2024 12:41:21 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Speedwinder]
[#38]
Took some profits on Apple a couple of days ago, and today bought Amazon with half of the funds and a CD with the other half of the Apple sale funds. I still hold a nice position in Apple.
It is my opinion that Amazon has a bright future particularly if fuel prices rise. I also think Apple sales will decline for a while. Time will tell IF I am right or wrong. |
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Posted: 1/16/2024 7:34:43 PM EDT
[#39]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By JCoop: What's the current feel for whether the feds will sue to block the Alaska/Hawaiian merger? I've read the news/analysis but what do y'all think? Judge blocked JetBlue-spirit today, spirit stock fell 50%. Not sure how Hawaii/Alaskan compares to JetBlue/spirit, but No way I would hold either of the former for the long term. |
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Posted: 1/25/2024 6:18:30 AM EDT
[#40]
I bought some AEP on Tuesday. 4.6% dividend and had dipped some.
I also own some CNP. I think AEP has a great future going forward but your mileage may vary. Two of my stocks shit the bed this week but I have held them long term and they will come back. ADM dropped 25% on accounting errors or malfeasance, if you can believe that and DD dropped like a rock on slowing sales and economy. I doubt they will cut dividends and at least with ADM this is a buying opportunity. I will continue to hold DD because of tax implications but I will not buy anymore. |
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Posted: 1/26/2024 11:24:14 AM EDT
[#41]
I do like AEP.
Honestly though 2024 seems iffy. Granted I know I've been saying this economic situation in untenable since 2021. I have done select cash positions, into MMF at 5%+. I've kept some of that, and deployed others into good companies, or gambles. I've also rotated some of my fun accounts into the regular indexes/etfs, ie VOO/VTI/SCHD/MGK, Semi Conductor/Uranium, from some individual holdings. I was participating at a meeting with a big time CFA the other day. He mentioned he thinks 2024 is going to be a low digit return year. The unfortunate thing for him though the trust/portfolio he active managed did 12% last year. I was thinking VTI/VOO, and chill would have had you beating that. But he mentioned a variety of layoffs at some of the big companies, I've seen it in the news. Credit card debt is at an all time record high. Everyone I know now says how spendy stuff is and problems affording things. I'm debating on keeping my workplace retirements invested and withdrawing a select position back into cash in others. I know it is an election year which they will want to keep juiced, but man it just does not seem like everything is green flags like we are being told. |
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Posted: 1/26/2024 11:51:10 AM EDT
[#42]
Tesla.
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Posted: 1/26/2024 12:01:00 PM EDT
[#43]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By lazyengineer: Tesla. I was a late comer to that buying in 2021-2022, been down 50% for a while.
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Posted: 1/26/2024 6:56:05 PM EDT
[#44]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Chromekilla: I do like AEP. Honestly though 2024 seems iffy. Granted I know I've been saying this economic situation in untenable since 2021. I have done select cash positions, into MMF at 5%+. I've kept some of that, and deployed others into good companies, or gambles. I've also rotated some of my fun accounts into the regular indexes/etfs, ie VOO/VTI/SCHD/MGK, Semi Conductor/Uranium, from some individual holdings. I was participating at a meeting with a big time CFA the other day. He mentioned he thinks 2024 is going to be a low digit return year. The unfortunate thing for him though the trust/portfolio he active managed did 12% last year. I was thinking VTI/VOO, and chill would have had you beating that. But he mentioned a variety of layoffs at some of the big companies, I've seen it in the news. Credit card debt is at an all time record high. Everyone I know now says how spendy stuff is and problems affording things. I'm debating on keeping my workplace retirements invested and withdrawing a select position back into cash in others. I know it is an election year which they will want to keep juiced, but man it just does not seem like everything is green flags like we are being told. Layoffs are generally seen as a positive by WallStreet, especially if it is in the form of exchanging expensive meat puppets with AI bots and automation. |
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Posted: 1/26/2024 8:19:03 PM EDT
[#45]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By HEATSEAKER: Layoffs are generally seen as a positive by WallStreet, especially if it is in the form of exchanging expensive meat puppets with AI bots and automation. This makes no sense. Are they caging it as laying off the lazys and getting lean/mean? Because to me layoffs mean shit ain't on point. Even Intel or IBM I forget which was laying off folks the other day. |
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Posted: 1/26/2024 9:28:06 PM EDT
[#46]
zim
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Posted: 1/26/2024 9:49:26 PM EDT
[#47]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Chromekilla: This makes no sense. Are they caging it as laying off the lazys and getting lean/mean? Because to me layoffs mean shit ain't on point. Even Intel or IBM I forget which was laying off folks the other day. Many are and more will be to remain competitive. Pruning the dead wood and make work jobs while incentivizing the remaining talent who actually gets shit done to keep working there. Shareholders are no longer buying the illusion that a company hiring every warm body who walks through the door=growth/profit. Quality over quantity. |
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Posted: 1/27/2024 6:29:48 AM EDT
[#48]
I am way behind most all of you in the figuring out the 2024 deal but.
It’s election year and this is going to be an election year for the record books. Never before have we had an administration actively and openly push the destruction of our country and the promotion of globalization/ communism. Not even Obama. Though he is probably running the show now. A world wide depression and or a world war would not surprise me. A civil war is not out of the realm of possibility. Maybe Im addicted to investing. I am not going to cash. My brother and I have done the dividend thing for years and he has almost everything in dividend stocks. I am about 40 % with the rest in mutual funds that are mostly large cap growth and now a bunch of CDs about 5% My brother is bringing in about 100k a year in dividends. Fortunately about 1/3 of that is in IRA’s. Even so at some point you cannot afford to Drip it all because the taxes become too much to pay out of your other income. We are just continuing to play our game. We don’t rebalance much we let the runners run. We just keep plugging along. Actually I don’t know whether to shit or go blind so right now I’m covering one eye and farting a little bit. |
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Posted: 1/27/2024 11:01:21 AM EDT
[#49]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By TEXASROOTERSBROTHER: Actually I don’t know whether to shit or go blind so right now I’m covering one eye and farting a little bit. I know how you feel. My crystal ball has gone dark. I am currently at about 32% in cash/CD's/T-bills, with a high percentage of my stocks centered in tech. I am not recommending this for others, it just seems to work well for me. I hope that after the Presidential election that I can get a better sense of the direction of the market. Markets go up and down, but over the long-term they have gone up. So I stay in the stock market and try to make small shifts mostly from stocks as they grow, to additional cash type assets. 2024 looks like it will be an...interesting...year. |
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Posted: 1/30/2024 8:06:46 PM EDT
[#50]
I'm out of settled funds.
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