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I got a good shot of the very rare white aurora
Attached File some might say those are clouds but i say bullshit. It is white aurora! |
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Mach
Nobody is coming to save us. . |
X5.4 last night created a full halo CME and we just had another X Class just now. 6m and 2m AU may be open for a couple of days. I would expect some TEP may open. SFI is high enough for some F2 on 6M but not sure how that would work with the storm going on. We did have some brief F2 yesterday afternoon.
supposed to be somewhat clear tonight. Hopefully the aurora is good again. Want to check that one off my bucket list. ETA: Bunch of guys last night on 6m ssb AU were saying they have never seen the conditions like this. That the last time they had a really good AU was back in the 60’s. This opening was much better. AU this morning was up and down but worked a couple of stations on 6m Q65. If you have not used Q65 its pretty good on AU, and tropo scatter. Great tool on 6M. |
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Originally Posted By stanprophet09: X5.4 last night created a full halo CME and we just had another X Class just now. 6m and 2m AU may be open for a couple of days. I would expect some TEP may open. SFI is high enough for some F2 on 6M but not sure how that would work with the storm going on. We did have some brief F2 yesterday afternoon. supposed to be somewhat clear tonight. Hopefully the aurora is good again. Want to check that one off my bucket list. View Quote where are you getting the current flare detection from? space weather live is delayed many hours ETA: Nevermind, I see it on the chart. |
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Mach
Nobody is coming to save us. . |
SWPC and Solarham.com is what I check. If you watch the Goes Magnetometer you can see when the CME begin to impace. Keep in mind every 3 hours NOAA resets the Geo Storm cumulative. So you will see it got to G1 every 3 hours, usually going right back up as they begin to average again. Kind of a weird system.
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Originally Posted By stanprophet09: SWPC and Solarham.com is what I check. If you watch the Goes Magnetometer you can see when the CME begin to impace. Keep in mind every 3 hours NOAA resets the Geo Storm cumulative. So you will see it got to G1 every 3 hours, usually going right back up as they begin to average again. Kind of a weird system. View Quote Didn't know that, was wondering why it kept cycling to G1, then G3, then G4 and 5. |
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Mach
Nobody is coming to save us. . |
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Solar events are updated every 5 minutes here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-and-geophysical-event-reports
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Never did clear up here. Maybe tonight.
Got on 40 CW for a bit last night, worked stations in MI and CT. Flutter was so bad we had to send ~8 WPM to understand each other. Trying to do the SKCC Sprint this morning. Bands are all but dead, what sigs there are ~S1 and fluttering, |
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"...Capitalism...shares its blessings unequally; ...Socialism...shares its miseries equally."
Winston Churchill |
I looked at around 2 AM, 4 AM, and 5:30 AM, and saw nothing I could call aurora borealis. Of course I have idiot neighbors who have to run big lights on their yards all freaking night, so there was a fair amount of light pollution.
I have seen it in the Quebec sky some years ago. |
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Don't confuse where I live with where I'm from.
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Originally Posted By stanprophet09: So I tend to only disconnect my antennas when I expect storms or going out of town. As we reach the height of the cycle, may be a good reminder to disconnect when not using your station in case we get some CME’s that induce current on the antennas. I have a large ground panel behind my station with bulkheads grounding the shields. I am planning in building some switches similar to Alpha delta that ground all the terminals and arc plugs but that is a ways out yet. View Quote Good policy. All of my equipment is grounded through the station ground. Power comes in through UPS's which have their own surge protector as do the feedlines. I still disconnect the feedlines to the radios. https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ Currently at a G5. As far as I know, there has been no reporting of any significant events related to this CME but I put no faith in that due to the current level of so-called "reporting". |
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Originally Posted By Kobolowsky_Tires: Currently at a G5. The Carrington Event was a G5. As far as I know, there has been no reporting of any significant events related to this CME but I put no faith in that due to the current level of so-called "reporting". View Quote Certainly we've all noticed that the HF bands are dead, dead, deadski. The only other major disruption I'm aware of is the GPS is having accuracy problems that are preventing WAAS LPV approaches to be conducted. Lateral navigation remains unaffected. However a large number of aviation GPS receivers are declaring solutions invalid. This is causing a lot of angst in the aviation world right now. |
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Originally Posted By aa777888-2: Unfortunately the highest rating is G5, there's nothing above that. It's likely the Carrington event was at least 1000 times more powerful than what we are seeing today. Since each level in the G scale represents a factor of 10, the Carrington event would be more like a G8 if there was such a thing. Certainly we've all noticed that the HF bands are dead, dead, deadski. The only other major disruption I'm aware of is the GPS is having accuracy problems that are preventing WAAS LPV approaches to be conducted. Lateral navigation remains unaffected. However a large number of aviation GPS receivers are declaring solutions invalid. This is causing a lot of angst in the aviation world right now. View Quote Indeed I am a 1 man show at work remoting into a large fleet of drones around the country to diagnose Hardware faults, C2 Link issues and install updates stuff like that. I had to ground the fleet last night, we gave the guys a heads up this was coming, but it hit a little sooner than expected. That magnetic pulse was massive as it passed the Goes Magnetometer. I started to type the message out and we went from G1 to G3 quickly giving them a heads up, halfway through the message we were at a G4. Gave the order to ground the fleet. We also experienced multiple GPS issues in AZ on Wednesday when the X class hit at 3pm Eastern. It was noon in AZ, 4 aircraft either lost a GPS fix lock or were unable to get a lock on a satellite on the ground. It lasted the duration of that flare. After the levels dropped GPS came right back. Kind of unusual so I suspect that it disrupted the Ionosphere enough that there was some sort of Scintillation issue causing multipath. Just a guess but to have 4 with the same issue in a geographical area screams environmental. These aircraft are using 2 of the best consumer-grade modules which are GNSS tri-band systems. They have amazing noise rejection and anti-jamming algorithms. We seldom have issues with them. They run Ublox F9p modules on a Canbus system. |
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Originally Posted By stanprophet09: Indeed I am a 1 man show at work remoting into a large fleet of drones around the country to diagnose Hardware faults, C2 Link issues and install updates stuff like that. I had to ground the fleet last night, we gave the guys a heads up this was coming, but it hit a little sooner than expected. That magnetic pulse was massive as it passed the Goes Magnetometer. I started to type the message out and we went from G1 to G3 quickly giving them a heads up, halfway through the message we were at a G4. Gave the order to ground the fleet. We also experienced multiple GPS issues in AZ on Wednesday when the X class hit at 3pm Eastern. It was noon in AZ, 4 aircraft either lost a GPS fix lock or were unable to get a lock on a satellite on the ground. It lasted the duration of that flare. After the levels dropped GPS came right back. Kind of unusual so I suspect that it disrupted the Ionosphere enough that there was some sort of Scintillation issue causing multipath. Just a guess but to have 4 with the same issue in a geographical area screams environmental. These aircraft are using 2 of the best consumer-grade modules which are GNSS tri-band systems. They have amazing noise rejection and anti-jamming algorithms. We seldom have issues with them. They run Ublox F9p modules on a Canbus system. View Quote Yeah gps was pretty wonky yesterday, good thing they have someone sitting there. |
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Originally Posted By aa777888-2: Unfortunately the highest rating is G5, there's nothing above that. It's likely the Carrington event was at least 1000 times more powerful than what we are seeing today. Since each level in the G scale represents a factor of 10, the Carrington event would be more like a G8 if there was such a thing. Certainly we've all noticed that the HF bands are dead, dead, deadski. The only other major disruption I'm aware of is the GPS is having accuracy problems that are preventing WAAS LPV approaches to be conducted. Lateral navigation remains unaffected. However a large number of aviation GPS receivers are declaring solutions invalid. This is causing a lot of angst in the aviation world right now. View Quote Thank you for clarifying that. I of course had to do a search, went down below the NPR article LOL, until I found any reference to the G5. Should have known better and read a little more. Thanks. |
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Originally Posted By Mach: I got a good shot of the very rare white aurora https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/98989/IMG_0414_jpeg-3211359.JPG some might say those are clouds but i say bullshit. It is white aurora! View Quote Not white.. just a crappy cellphone photo :) |
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Just because you are unique doesn't make you useful.
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Originally Posted By aa777888-2: What consequences would those be? A widespread power outage, perhaps even nationwide, because the system tripped off to protect itself, is not even SHTF. It's just a power outage. We have them all the time. I had a 4-day long one a few years ago, and a 2-day outage just this past winter. People regularly experience 1 to 2 week long outages due to significant weather events. The real questions that remain unanswered: - Are all major utilities protected to at least the level of Hydro-Quebec in 1989? - Will that protection react similarly to an event 10 or 100 times stronger than the 1989 event? If the answer is "Yes" to both, then the fear of major transformer damage leading to protracted, months-long outages is largely misplaced. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By aa777888-2: Originally Posted By planemaker: But, the consequences could be quite severe if a major event occurs. The real questions that remain unanswered: - Are all major utilities protected to at least the level of Hydro-Quebec in 1989? - Will that protection react similarly to an event 10 or 100 times stronger than the 1989 event? If the answer is "Yes" to both, then the fear of major transformer damage leading to protracted, months-long outages is largely misplaced. Apparently not all major utilities are protected to the same levels, according to that most recent EMP Commission report. Interestingly, the NOAA Space Weather site was not just talking about power companies but that pipelines could also have issues. I guess I hadn't thought about that aspect. As for consequences, the Great Texas Deep Freeze of 2021 caused numerous deaths due to power outages - "At least 246 people were killed directly or indirectly, with some estimates as high as 702 killed as a result of the crisis.". Where I live, power was out for 3.5 days. In Virginia after Isabel in 2003, we were without power for 5.5 days. But that was obnoxious heat and humidity, not sub-zero temperatures. I'm not sure anybody really knows how the protection that is currently in place will react to an event that is 10x-100x the 1989 event. One has to wonder given the possibility of cascade failures if one power company is a little lax, whether they'll take the rest down with them. |
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Originally Posted By stanprophet09: Indeed I am a 1 man show at work remoting into a large fleet of drones around the country to diagnose Hardware faults, C2 Link issues and install updates stuff like that. I had to ground the fleet last night, we gave the guys a heads up this was coming, but it hit a little sooner than expected. That magnetic pulse was massive as it passed the Goes Magnetometer. I started to type the message out and we went from G1 to G3 quickly giving them a heads up, halfway through the message we were at a G4. Gave the order to ground the fleet. We also experienced multiple GPS issues in AZ on Wednesday when the X class hit at 3pm Eastern. It was noon in AZ, 4 aircraft either lost a GPS fix lock or were unable to get a lock on a satellite on the ground. It lasted the duration of that flare. After the levels dropped GPS came right back. Kind of unusual so I suspect that it disrupted the Ionosphere enough that there was some sort of Scintillation issue causing multipath. Just a guess but to have 4 with the same issue in a geographical area screams environmental. These aircraft are using 2 of the best consumer-grade modules which are GNSS tri-band systems. They have amazing noise rejection and anti-jamming algorithms. We seldom have issues with them. They run Ublox F9p modules on a Canbus system. View Quote View All Quotes View All Quotes Originally Posted By stanprophet09: Originally Posted By aa777888-2: Unfortunately the highest rating is G5, there's nothing above that. It's likely the Carrington event was at least 1000 times more powerful than what we are seeing today. Since each level in the G scale represents a factor of 10, the Carrington event would be more like a G8 if there was such a thing. Certainly we've all noticed that the HF bands are dead, dead, deadski. The only other major disruption I'm aware of is the GPS is having accuracy problems that are preventing WAAS LPV approaches to be conducted. Lateral navigation remains unaffected. However a large number of aviation GPS receivers are declaring solutions invalid. This is causing a lot of angst in the aviation world right now. Indeed I am a 1 man show at work remoting into a large fleet of drones around the country to diagnose Hardware faults, C2 Link issues and install updates stuff like that. I had to ground the fleet last night, we gave the guys a heads up this was coming, but it hit a little sooner than expected. That magnetic pulse was massive as it passed the Goes Magnetometer. I started to type the message out and we went from G1 to G3 quickly giving them a heads up, halfway through the message we were at a G4. Gave the order to ground the fleet. We also experienced multiple GPS issues in AZ on Wednesday when the X class hit at 3pm Eastern. It was noon in AZ, 4 aircraft either lost a GPS fix lock or were unable to get a lock on a satellite on the ground. It lasted the duration of that flare. After the levels dropped GPS came right back. Kind of unusual so I suspect that it disrupted the Ionosphere enough that there was some sort of Scintillation issue causing multipath. Just a guess but to have 4 with the same issue in a geographical area screams environmental. These aircraft are using 2 of the best consumer-grade modules which are GNSS tri-band systems. They have amazing noise rejection and anti-jamming algorithms. We seldom have issues with them. They run Ublox F9p modules on a Canbus system. I gave some ops people a heads-up that GPS was going to likely have issues. I was hoping the folks down here at least would use their outdoor netted cage and do some tests to see how commercial drones would react to something like this. Alas, they weren't in a research-y mood. Too bad, it would have made a great technical paper (and probably some good videos, too). |
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Looks like everything is back to operational status: https://www.nstb.tc.faa.gov/realtime-plots.html
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Originally Posted By aa777888-2: Looks like everything is back to operational status: https://www.nstb.tc.faa.gov/realtime-plots.html View Quote Thanks for the link to that. It may come in handy for pre-mission planning. |
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Solarham event timeline with pictures: LINK
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"...Capitalism...shares its blessings unequally; ...Socialism...shares its miseries equally."
Winston Churchill |
Here we go again:
The largest solar flare of the current solar cycle 25, and largest since 2017 was just observed around departing AR 3664 off the west limb. The X8.7 event peaked at 16:51 UTC (May 14) causing a strong R3 level radio blackout directly over North America. More to follow... View Quote ETA: An eruption in the vicinity of newly assigned AR 3682 measuring M4.4 was observed at 17:38 UTC (May 14). This event looks to be eruptive, meaning a CME will be produced. Solar Cycle 25 just kicked it up a notch ! View Quote Solarham LINK |
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"...Capitalism...shares its blessings unequally; ...Socialism...shares its miseries equally."
Winston Churchill |
This morning I watched the signals disappear as an X2.9 hit. It's from a region just coming into view, so expect more crap conditions. Just what I need as I head west and hope to get some new Asia DX.
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we now have 2 Full halo CMEs headed our way.
one from 1836 UTC 14 may and one from 0924 UTC 15 may, today erupted 15 hours apart |
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Mach
Nobody is coming to save us. . |
Don't confuse where I live with where I'm from.
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@Emoto
Go to QRZ.com Check out the solar conditions banner. The best conditions are high solar flux numbers and low "A" and "K" indices. The lower left has band by band conditions divided into day and night predictions. The chart will also tell you about the activity level of the Geo-magnetic field. lower is better for HF radio. Supposedly, 160M is not affected by sun spot activity but I'm not sure where I got that notion. The best time of the cycle for HF will be in the fall/ winter where the thunder storms are active in the southern hemisphere, the solar flux is high and the "A" and "K" indices are low. (Ideally a big fat zero.) HTH 73, Rob |
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Sic semper tyrannis!
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