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Link Posted: 7/28/2015 9:20:12 PM EDT
[#1]
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Quoted:
I think the bigger worry is something coming out of left field (black swan event of some type) and making the fragile house of cards fall.  Without that outside push, the current status quo might go on indefinitely.
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Crazy weather, well out of our control would be one good example of this.  Or a solar flare...  

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_storm_of_1859

We are over due.  Our electrical grid probably wouldn't completely fry, but you can bet a good part of our country would have problems for a while.  Who knows how digital systems would do...

Weather and temps are always changing as well.  A degree where it counts would change the world as we know it.

The list goes on...  Which brings me to my point that having some common sense preparations and plans in place will give you the best all around chance.  That should also include a retirement plan.  
Link Posted: 7/29/2015 1:01:57 AM EDT
[#2]
Everything is about "being prepared" which is essentially to plan multiple options, diversify your portfolio of:

a) food & water
b) shelter (permanent, mobile, portable)
c) communications (grid and off grid, traditional and modern)
d) security (passive and active)
e) health care (institutional, habitual, homeopathic...)
f) education (institutional, homeschooling, tutors, self-taught...)
g) retirement (investments, family and clan allegiances...)

I have read alot of accounts from Jews. They survived as a small minority (often hated by the general population and powers that be) by diversifying
They survived by having many connections outside their clan and religion. By being useful - learning essential trades or things everyone like, like entertainment.

They survived by having relatively stable home lives and marriages, having close knit families and small communities.

They didn't hide in bunkers...they knew enough to stay engaged civilly and involved in the power structure of their day if only to keep an eye on things.
They didn't trust themselves to weapons except for point defense - surrounded by a hostile culture they knew they had zero chance of fighting off the hostile surrounding culture by force of arms... but at the same time they weren't entirely defenseless. They made allies across confessional and cultural lines.

I think this is all shrewd and sage. I've begun reading the daily liturgy of the hours (Catholic) which involves contemplating the Psalms and Proverbs and they're full of admonitions about enemies and false friends, betrayal, danger from men...but also trusting in God and family and friends and kin....

I think it's reasonable for most middle class Joes to prep for WROL situations that follow black swan events or SHTF involving local loss of government. It's reasonable to prep for power outages or disasters. But the only defense from either nuclear war level catastrophes or open, bloody persecution of your religion or ethnicity by the powers that be is found in your network of allies and friends and far flung family members. One simply can't purchase enough guns and gear to fend off the professionals that will come crashing down on your head.

IN a global economic meltdown we may get both WROL and government repression as the elites panic or they use the crisis to go big (settle scores, seek to eliminate any threat to their power, etc.) in such a chaotic scenario, one day we may be the safe haven for our friends and family and the next day we may ourselves be refugees seeking shelter with allies who are from different religions, even different political factions but are otherwise trustworthy.

So... if you are a Protestant...get to know some Catholics, Orthodox and Jews. If you are a staunch GOP conservative, take the time to get to know some independents and even moderate Democrats. Broaden your network of acquiantances and friends. Call up old class mates in far off states - reconnect with old childhood friends. Just be friendly and nice. You never know....

You obviously will have a core group of utterly trustworthy people..but stay engaged civilly and socially. Get to know (and support) the local EMTS/FIRE/POLICE.... the local Rotary or United Way or other charities...

We need to actively resist the social/cultural forces driving us toward atomization, isolation, and ideological/racial/confessional boxes. Divide and conquer is as old as government...so if you would be free and safe, work to network and expand your connections... recreate the web of friendship that literally IS civilization.....
Link Posted: 7/29/2015 3:35:36 AM EDT
[#3]
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Quoted:


Crazy weather, well out of our control would be one good example of this.  Or a solar flare...  

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_storm_of_1859

We are over due.  Our electrical grid probably wouldn't completely fry, but you can bet a good part of our country would have problems for a while.  Who knows how digital systems would do...

Weather and temps are always changing as well.  A degree where it counts would change the world as we know it.

The list goes on...  Which brings me to my point that having some common sense preparations and plans in place will give you the best all around chance.  That should also include a retirement plan.  
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Quoted:
Quoted:
I think the bigger worry is something coming out of left field (black swan event of some type) and making the fragile house of cards fall.  Without that outside push, the current status quo might go on indefinitely.


Crazy weather, well out of our control would be one good example of this.  Or a solar flare...  

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_storm_of_1859

We are over due.  Our electrical grid probably wouldn't completely fry, but you can bet a good part of our country would have problems for a while.  Who knows how digital systems would do...

Weather and temps are always changing as well.  A degree where it counts would change the world as we know it.

The list goes on...  Which brings me to my point that having some common sense preparations and plans in place will give you the best all around chance.  That should also include a retirement plan.  



 So I guess the question is: How many national disasters can our country financially keep up with while simultaneously keeping the house of cards standing ?? Ex. Volcano in the pnw, earthquakes in California, drought in the Midwest, wildfires in Colorado and New Mexico, floods in Texas, hurricanes in the gulf, tornadoes etc etc.. Sounds like the extreme unknowns, yet routinely happening disasters are accounted for by big gov, unless the disaster exceeds expectations, then what ? They print more zeros? If we have a a nation that can't get to work due to infrastructure collapse, where's the breaking point on the balance sheet? And how long would it take to get back to life as we know it now? What happens when the disasters get closer together and progressively worsen? Seriously...I'm dumb help me out here..are we just going to ditch physical currency and get a do all ebt card that's updated with hours worked, taxes taken out, combo ID, built in breathalyzer that you insert into vehicle to start........meh maybe that's iPhone 666 and I'm half asleep
Link Posted: 7/29/2015 9:51:57 AM EDT
[#4]
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Quoted:


You are missing one major piece of the puzzle.

The interest on the debt no longer matters.

The fed reserve has and will buy debt. When there are not enough buyers of US debt, instead of the rates of return going up to entice buyers, and raising rates, the fed reserve buys the debt, at the low offered rates. Problem solved. Since the fed is never audited and they create the money they need to buy the debt, they do not need to ever present that debt to the treasury upon maturity to be paid, because they created the money to buy the debt to begin with. That debt goes into a black hole never to be seen again. It is the ultimate QE since it does not get reported as QE, it just gets reported as debt bought.

So the interest rates on debt will never go up. In fact, that debt the fed buys will never have to be refinanced either, because it will never be presented to the treasury to be repaid, because the fed reserve does not need their money back, since they created the money they used to buy it and they never get audited.

As a result, rates will never go up on the debt, only a fraction of the debt will ever need to be refinanced, and we will have steady unreported inflation for decades to come.

Problem has already been solved and the solution has been executed now for 6 years.
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I'm not convinced of any specific outcome other than our current course cannot be sustained. Since that which cannot be sustained will not be, it then becomes a question of how the current course will be corrected.

There is a possibility that a new conservative administration, washed in with a conservative majority of both houses, could turn around the death spiral. I frankly don't see that happening in 2016, probably not in 2020 either.

Another possibility is that countries around the globe could, suddenly, get their $hit together and become productive again. Economies would boom again and "growth" could alleviate the stress on the financial systems globally. I see this as very unlikely for a variety of geopolitical reasons.

If the present course is maintained, eventually, the interest on the massive US debt will be unsupportable by total tax revenues. If interest rates rise to historical norms of 5-6%, this will happen almost immediately. Even if the Fed keeps the printing press going to keep ZIRP, eventually it won't matter because even with near-zero rates, the debt will be so high as to surpass the ability of the nation to pay even the interest on the debt. If that happens, a default is inevitable, pretty much hosing over most of the planet.

Some predict that if our debt surpasses our ability to pay, that we become Zimbabwe in a hyperinflationary runaway mine train. Others predict if we default on our debt, or even if we run out of people/countries wanting to buy our debt, we will have a deflationary collapse that makes GD1 look like a Sunday picnic. In the first scenario, it makes the most sense to convert cash to tangible real assets as quickly as possible (buy low, sell high). In the second, selling assets quickly and holding a large cash stash will pay off handsomely by being able to re-aquire assets at a much lower price (sell high, buy low).

The problem as I see it is figuring out, in real time, which way the cookie is crumbling. Guess wrong and you're completely screwed. Guess right and you're much less screwed, but still likely messed up. Timing is also a huge issue since mis-timing the event horizon can cost you plenty, or, decisions will have been made for you at that point.

I'm sure my dad, who lived thru GD1, is spinning in his grave at all the (IMHO legitimate) talk about the collapse of the US economy.



You are missing one major piece of the puzzle.

The interest on the debt no longer matters.

The fed reserve has and will buy debt. When there are not enough buyers of US debt, instead of the rates of return going up to entice buyers, and raising rates, the fed reserve buys the debt, at the low offered rates. Problem solved. Since the fed is never audited and they create the money they need to buy the debt, they do not need to ever present that debt to the treasury upon maturity to be paid, because they created the money to buy the debt to begin with. That debt goes into a black hole never to be seen again. It is the ultimate QE since it does not get reported as QE, it just gets reported as debt bought.

So the interest rates on debt will never go up. In fact, that debt the fed buys will never have to be refinanced either, because it will never be presented to the treasury to be repaid, because the fed reserve does not need their money back, since they created the money they used to buy it and they never get audited.

As a result, rates will never go up on the debt, only a fraction of the debt will ever need to be refinanced, and we will have steady unreported inflation for decades to come.

Problem has already been solved and the solution has been executed now for 6 years.

You are missing a few things here yourself, actually. (No offense)

The Fed buys debt, increasing money supply, and it creates inflation. That is a tax on you (inflationary tax). They buy the debt, your bank account now buys less, therefore you paid for that debt. It is true that the fed won't call for repayment on the notes, but the sheer fact that they devalued the dollar by inflation means that their ability in the next few years to pay the OTHER debts back (to foreign entities) becomes less. There is no free lunch, otherwise why wouldn't they just be printing like crazy since the printing press was invented? (And no, they haven't done that)
Another factor of this is that they lie about inflation (which is very high) to conceal the direct effects of buying debt and 'burying it'. This inflationary consequence of printing money (a.k.a. buying debt) is directly how a collapse (and subsequent major inflation/devaluation) situation could occur. The trick is, with so much power held by the US Govt and the Fed doing everything to stop/delay/conceal it, there is no way that it (the collapse) will swoop down one day and surprise everyone like historical examples. It will be a slow, hideous slide and that is the frame of time when everyone loses their home and whatnot. You have to literally be the last man standing (on your own property) when the debtors come knocking on everyone else's home first. You will have to ride the collapse under legitimate dollar-backed finances until the death rattle (if that even happens). Trust me, federal employees collecting taxes will be the LAST people to lose their jobs. The govt will eat it's own people before it dies. The only other alternative is to go to war and appropriate means to reinvigorate the value of our dollar or conquer our debtors or leave everyone else in the world relying on us for their currency standard in some way.
It could just be a massive reduction in the standard of living and whatnot instead of outright collapse. I believe that is far more likely. It is already happening at a slower pace anyway.

Oh, I wanted to add to this, if anyone is interested in listening to an honest expert on this stuff, watch some interviews of (or read some books written by) Thomas Sowell.
Link Posted: 7/29/2015 10:18:49 AM EDT
[#5]
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Quoted:

You are missing a few things here yourself, actually. (No offense)

The Fed buys debt, increasing money supply, and it creates inflation. That is a tax on you (inflationary tax). They buy the debt, your bank account now buys less, therefore you paid for that debt. It is true that the fed won't call for repayment on the notes, but the sheer fact that they devalued the dollar by inflation means that their ability in the next few years to pay the OTHER debts back (to foreign entities) becomes less. There is no free lunch, otherwise why wouldn't they just be printing like crazy since the printing press was invented? (And no, they haven't done that)
Another factor of this is that they lie about inflation (which is very high) to conceal the direct effects of buying debt and 'burying it'. This inflationary consequence of printing money (a.k.a. buying debt) is directly how a collapse (and subsequent major inflation/devaluation) situation could occur. The trick is, with so much power held by the US Govt and the Fed doing everything to stop/delay/conceal it, there is no way that it (the collapse) will swoop down one day and surprise everyone like historical examples. It will be a slow, hideous slide and that is the frame of time when everyone loses their home and whatnot. You have to literally be the last man standing (on your own property) when the debtors come knocking on everyone else's home first. You will have to ride the collapse under legitimate dollar-backed finances until the death rattle (if that even happens). Trust me, federal employees collecting taxes will be the LAST people to lose their jobs. The govt will eat it's own people before it dies. The only other alternative is to go to war and appropriate means to reinvigorate the value of our dollar or conquer our debtors or leave everyone else in the world relying on us for their currency standard in some way.
It could just be a massive reduction in the standard of living and whatnot instead of outright collapse. I believe that is far more likely. It is already happening at a slower pace anyway.

Oh, I wanted to add to this, if anyone is interested in listening to an honest expert on this stuff, watch some interviews of (or read some books written by) Thomas Sowell.
View Quote View All Quotes
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Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
I'm not convinced of any specific outcome other than our current course cannot be sustained. Since that which cannot be sustained will not be, it then becomes a question of how the current course will be corrected.

There is a possibility that a new conservative administration, washed in with a conservative majority of both houses, could turn around the death spiral. I frankly don't see that happening in 2016, probably not in 2020 either.

Another possibility is that countries around the globe could, suddenly, get their $hit together and become productive again. Economies would boom again and "growth" could alleviate the stress on the financial systems globally. I see this as very unlikely for a variety of geopolitical reasons.

If the present course is maintained, eventually, the interest on the massive US debt will be unsupportable by total tax revenues. If interest rates rise to historical norms of 5-6%, this will happen almost immediately. Even if the Fed keeps the printing press going to keep ZIRP, eventually it won't matter because even with near-zero rates, the debt will be so high as to surpass the ability of the nation to pay even the interest on the debt. If that happens, a default is inevitable, pretty much hosing over most of the planet.

Some predict that if our debt surpasses our ability to pay, that we become Zimbabwe in a hyperinflationary runaway mine train. Others predict if we default on our debt, or even if we run out of people/countries wanting to buy our debt, we will have a deflationary collapse that makes GD1 look like a Sunday picnic. In the first scenario, it makes the most sense to convert cash to tangible real assets as quickly as possible (buy low, sell high). In the second, selling assets quickly and holding a large cash stash will pay off handsomely by being able to re-aquire assets at a much lower price (sell high, buy low).

The problem as I see it is figuring out, in real time, which way the cookie is crumbling. Guess wrong and you're completely screwed. Guess right and you're much less screwed, but still likely messed up. Timing is also a huge issue since mis-timing the event horizon can cost you plenty, or, decisions will have been made for you at that point.

I'm sure my dad, who lived thru GD1, is spinning in his grave at all the (IMHO legitimate) talk about the collapse of the US economy.



You are missing one major piece of the puzzle.

The interest on the debt no longer matters.

The fed reserve has and will buy debt. When there are not enough buyers of US debt, instead of the rates of return going up to entice buyers, and raising rates, the fed reserve buys the debt, at the low offered rates. Problem solved. Since the fed is never audited and they create the money they need to buy the debt, they do not need to ever present that debt to the treasury upon maturity to be paid, because they created the money to buy the debt to begin with. That debt goes into a black hole never to be seen again. It is the ultimate QE since it does not get reported as QE, it just gets reported as debt bought.

So the interest rates on debt will never go up. In fact, that debt the fed buys will never have to be refinanced either, because it will never be presented to the treasury to be repaid, because the fed reserve does not need their money back, since they created the money they used to buy it and they never get audited.

As a result, rates will never go up on the debt, only a fraction of the debt will ever need to be refinanced, and we will have steady unreported inflation for decades to come.

Problem has already been solved and the solution has been executed now for 6 years.

You are missing a few things here yourself, actually. (No offense)

The Fed buys debt, increasing money supply, and it creates inflation. That is a tax on you (inflationary tax). They buy the debt, your bank account now buys less, therefore you paid for that debt. It is true that the fed won't call for repayment on the notes, but the sheer fact that they devalued the dollar by inflation means that their ability in the next few years to pay the OTHER debts back (to foreign entities) becomes less. There is no free lunch, otherwise why wouldn't they just be printing like crazy since the printing press was invented? (And no, they haven't done that)
Another factor of this is that they lie about inflation (which is very high) to conceal the direct effects of buying debt and 'burying it'. This inflationary consequence of printing money (a.k.a. buying debt) is directly how a collapse (and subsequent major inflation/devaluation) situation could occur. The trick is, with so much power held by the US Govt and the Fed doing everything to stop/delay/conceal it, there is no way that it (the collapse) will swoop down one day and surprise everyone like historical examples. It will be a slow, hideous slide and that is the frame of time when everyone loses their home and whatnot. You have to literally be the last man standing (on your own property) when the debtors come knocking on everyone else's home first. You will have to ride the collapse under legitimate dollar-backed finances until the death rattle (if that even happens). Trust me, federal employees collecting taxes will be the LAST people to lose their jobs. The govt will eat it's own people before it dies. The only other alternative is to go to war and appropriate means to reinvigorate the value of our dollar or conquer our debtors or leave everyone else in the world relying on us for their currency standard in some way.
It could just be a massive reduction in the standard of living and whatnot instead of outright collapse. I believe that is far more likely. It is already happening at a slower pace anyway.

Oh, I wanted to add to this, if anyone is interested in listening to an honest expert on this stuff, watch some interviews of (or read some books written by) Thomas Sowell.


Yes. I agree with that, but it could take a very very long time. The US dollar has been devalued 95% since 1929, and the economy is still functioning. It will be devalued faster now, but it will be a slow decrease of standard of living for years and years unless there is an event that accelerates it. There is no way out. It will happen.

The question is when. I think it could be a very very long time. Or it could happen this afternoon.

No need to go to war and conquer our debtors.  Most of the debt is not held by foreign govts,, it is held right here at home, ie.. social security and fed employee retirement funds and the fed reserve.
Link Posted: 7/29/2015 1:07:30 PM EDT
[#6]

Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:


Everything is about "being prepared" which is essentially to plan multiple options, diversify your portfolio of:



a) food & water

b) shelter (permanent, mobile, portable)

c) communications (grid and off grid, traditional and modern)

d) security (passive and active)

e) health care (institutional, habitual, homeopathic...)

f) education (institutional, homeschooling, tutors, self-taught...)

g) retirement (investments, family and clan allegiances...)



I have read alot of accounts from Jews. They survived as a small minority (often hated by the general population and powers that be) by diversifying

They survived by having many connections outside their clan and religion. By being useful - learning essential trades or things everyone like, like entertainment.



They survived by having relatively stable home lives and marriages, having close knit families and small communities.



They didn't hide in bunkers...they knew enough to stay engaged civilly and involved in the power structure of their day if only to keep an eye on things.

They didn't trust themselves to weapons except for point defense - surrounded by a hostile culture they knew they had zero chance of fighting off the hostile surrounding culture by force of arms... but at the same time they weren't entirely defenseless. They made allies across confessional and cultural lines.



I think this is all shrewd and sage. I've begun reading the daily liturgy of the hours (Catholic) which involves contemplating the Psalms and Proverbs and they're full of admonitions about enemies and false friends, betrayal, danger from men...but also trusting in God and family and friends and kin....



I think it's reasonable for most middle class Joes to prep for WROL situations that follow black swan events or SHTF involving local loss of government. It's reasonable to prep for power outages or disasters. But the only defense from either nuclear war level catastrophes or open, bloody persecution of your religion or ethnicity by the powers that be is found in your network of allies and friends and far flung family members. One simply can't purchase enough guns and gear to fend off the professionals that will come crashing down on your head.



IN a global economic meltdown we may get both WROL and government repression as the elites panic or they use the crisis to go big (settle scores, seek to eliminate any threat to their power, etc.) in such a chaotic scenario, one day we may be the safe haven for our friends and family and the next day we may ourselves be refugees seeking shelter with allies who are from different religions, even different political factions but are otherwise trustworthy.



So... if you are a Protestant...get to know some Catholics, Orthodox and Jews. If you are a staunch GOP conservative, take the time to get to know some independents and even moderate Democrats. Broaden your network of acquiantances and friends. Call up old class mates in far off states - reconnect with old childhood friends. Just be friendly and nice. You never know....



You obviously will have a core group of utterly trustworthy people..but stay engaged civilly and socially. Get to know (and support) the local EMTS/FIRE/POLICE.... the local Rotary or United Way or other charities...



We need to actively resist the social/cultural forces driving us toward atomization, isolation, and ideological/racial/confessional boxes. Divide and conquer is as old as government...so if you would be free and safe, work to network and expand your connections... recreate the web of friendship that literally IS civilization.....
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This is one of the more intelligent posts I've read in this forum, and worth repeating.
Link Posted: 7/30/2015 7:51:33 AM EDT
[#7]
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Thanks for the tip!  I'll take a look.  

Fortunately we home school with many other families and tutors so I am sure I can work this in somewhere.  


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If you live within your means, stay debt free and acquire tangible assets, you will do well in almost any economic event.

I'm betting my life and the lives of my family on that.



This.  

I'll also add I think this system will keep limping along for another 20 years.  While doomed mathematically (and historically) to fail at some point, so many people have such a vested interest in keeping it going it will stagger along on huge momentum.  I am teaching my kids from a very young age to be wary of the debt and consumer lifestyle.  The are more likely to deal whit the collapse then me at this point.


Have your kids listen to this too:  Richest Man in Babylon  They don't teach that stuff in school.


Thanks for the tip!  I'll take a look.  

Fortunately we home school with many other families and tutors so I am sure I can work this in somewhere.  




Ok, I took a look at the youtube link.  Its an audio book reading.  Between his monotone voice and his British accent the narrator made me want to gouge my ears out after 5 minutes.  I'll be buying the book for sure.  


Link Posted: 7/30/2015 11:35:42 AM EDT
[#8]
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Ok, I took a look at the youtube link.  Its an audio book reading.  Between his monotone voice and his British accent the narrator made me want to gouge my ears out after 5 minutes.  I'll be buying the book for sure.  


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If you live within your means, stay debt free and acquire tangible assets, you will do well in almost any economic event.

I'm betting my life and the lives of my family on that.



This.  

I'll also add I think this system will keep limping along for another 20 years.  While doomed mathematically (and historically) to fail at some point, so many people have such a vested interest in keeping it going it will stagger along on huge momentum.  I am teaching my kids from a very young age to be wary of the debt and consumer lifestyle.  The are more likely to deal whit the collapse then me at this point.


Have your kids listen to this too:  Richest Man in Babylon  They don't teach that stuff in school.


Thanks for the tip!  I'll take a look.  

Fortunately we home school with many other families and tutors so I am sure I can work this in somewhere.  




Ok, I took a look at the youtube link.  Its an audio book reading.  Between his monotone voice and his British accent the narrator made me want to gouge my ears out after 5 minutes.  I'll be buying the book for sure.  




I didn't last .45 seconds
Link Posted: 7/30/2015 2:56:13 PM EDT
[#9]
I continue to be concerned...but I've been concerned for going on 20+ years (time as a functioning adult with kids and responsibilities..) and the thing hasn't gone off the cliff yet so.  I have moderated my concern.

- SIDE STORY -

Shooting at 600 yd range in Washtenaw Co 10+ years ago.  The guy next to me (55-60 yr old guy shooting scoped AR) and I strike up a conversation.  He tells me he started shooting more seriously after the concerns about Soviet Union in 1970s and into 1980s...now he shoots for fun.  That stuck with me.  He said how he was so concerned Red Dawn was gonna happen "any day"...

Will things go "tits up" at some point?  Maybe, probably....?  Is it tomorrow or next year?  I don't think so.  In my life time?  Prob not...

But I still plan accordingly while trying to live a good, fun life and provide for my family.

Cheers all!
Link Posted: 7/30/2015 3:35:26 PM EDT
[#10]
this explains things very, very well i think.


Link Posted: 7/30/2015 4:06:07 PM EDT
[#11]
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sounds like a great opportunity to be heavily in debt -- in fact, have A LOT of debt.

for example:
mortgage that US$1M dream house w/ farmland you were always wanting; hyperinflation happens, pay lender back the loan in full with inflated dollars.  
tractors, cars, trucks, everything could be acquired the same way -- get the loans, take delivery of the equipment, and just wait for hyperinflation.


what is stopping you?

ar-jedi
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Hyperinflationary collapse is inevitable

All paper currencies inevitably turn into dust. Often causing a gov / social collapse. As I see it, it's the biggest source of concern and the most likely TSHTF situation. It's a runaway train, nothing can be done about it. The debt cannot be repaid in any other way. Other than inflating the currency into oblivion. This is the future of US. Hard to say where will go from there. If the gov will take the hyperinflated currency, remove about 5 zeros and create a new fiat currency. Or if will collapse completely.


sounds like a great opportunity to be heavily in debt -- in fact, have A LOT of debt.

for example:
mortgage that US$1M dream house w/ farmland you were always wanting; hyperinflation happens, pay lender back the loan in full with inflated dollars.  
tractors, cars, trucks, everything could be acquired the same way -- get the loans, take delivery of the equipment, and just wait for hyperinflation.


what is stopping you?

ar-jedi

I have thought about that too.  But I think the government would adjust the loans to account for inflation to save the banks.  That's what would probably happen.
Link Posted: 7/30/2015 4:10:28 PM EDT
[#12]
The average maturity of our debt is 7 years. You would need inflation of over 100% a year to make a dent in debt that has a 7 year maturity. Think about it. If you have only 10% inflation The outstanding debt goes down by 10% each year in real terms, but each year you have to sell enough new debt to finance 1/7th of your over all debt and each time you do that you have to refinance it at the new rate -10% more then last year.

Very hard to do. Trying hard right now and they can't get inflation up to 2%.

Inflation is not going to cure our debt problem.
Link Posted: 7/30/2015 6:04:17 PM EDT
[#13]
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Quoted:
The average maturity of our debt is 7 years. You would need inflation of over 100% a year to make a dent in debt that has a 7 year maturity. Think about it. If you have only 10% inflation The outstanding debt goes down by 10% each year in real terms, but each year you have to sell enough new debt to finance 1/7th of your over all debt and each time you do that you have to refinance it at the new rate -10% more then last year.

Very hard to do. Trying hard right now and they can't get inflation up to 2%.

Inflation is not going to cure our debt problem.
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How can we have true inflation with the collective incomes so low?????

Who's going to bid up prices -in general?


Link Posted: 7/30/2015 7:53:25 PM EDT
[#14]
There are only 4 real ways for a government to lower debt:

1. Inflation - this is the preferred method. It is a stealth tax. Politicos don't have to worry about getting voted out by it. But it is harder to generate then you would think in our system. The fed can lower rates to try and get more money in circulation, but that has not worked. They have bought up a lot of treasuries and housing bonds. But the people that they displaced in the trade just put their money into something else 'safe'. They did not take it and buy cars and boats with it - it was mostly retirement funds. It has kept the government borrowing rates down - but that has the opposite effect on inflation. The other thing about inflation that if you do get it started there is a tipping point where it gets out of control and the fed will have a hard time stopping it.

2. Cut spending. We all know how that will play with our dysfunctional government. Even if they wanted to cut spending 42% of spending is entitlements that are really hard to touch.

3. Tax and tax some more. Another tough sell. The only way to really raise taxes enough to help is to start a war. Not the piddling little ones - has to be big - think Russia or China. With a big war people get all patriot and stupid ( don't get me wrong - not against patriotism - I served). If we go to war and the government comes out and says all income brackets have to pay 20% more tax people just say it is the patriotic thing to do and suck it up.

4. The good old fashion way - default. Ask Argentina - they are pros at it. The problem is that if the US defaults is no one big enough to back stop it. The IMF or world bank could not touch it. I would be financial Armageddon.

For now with borrowing rates where they are the government is probably perfectly happy kicking the can down the road a long as they can.
Eventually they will have to do something. I suspect it will be combination of the first 3 including a nice big war.....
Link Posted: 7/30/2015 8:53:46 PM EDT
[#15]
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Quoted:

There is a possibility that a new conservative administration, washed in with a conservative majority of both houses, could turn around the death spiral. I frankly don't see that happening in 2016, probably not in 2020 either.

Another possibility is that countries around the globe could, suddenly, get their $hit together and become productive again. Economies would boom again and "growth" could alleviate the stress on the financial systems globally. I see this as very unlikely for a variety of geopolitical reasons.

If the present course is maintained, eventually, the interest on the massive US debt will be unsupportable by total tax revenues. If interest rates rise to historical norms of 5-6%, this will happen almost immediately. Even if the Fed keeps the printing press going to keep ZIRP, eventually it won't matter because even with near-zero rates, the debt will be so high as to surpass the ability of the nation to pay even the interest on the debt. If that happens, a default is inevitable, pretty much hosing over most of the planet.

Some predict that if our debt surpasses our ability to pay, that we become Zimbabwe in a hyperinflationary runaway mine train. Others predict if we default on our debt, or even if we run out of people/countries wanting to buy our debt, we will have a deflationary collapse that makes GD1 look like a Sunday picnic. In the first scenario, it makes the most sense to convert cash to tangible real assets as quickly as possible (buy low, sell high). In the second, selling assets quickly and holding a large cash stash will pay off handsomely by being able to re-aquire assets at a much lower price (sell high, buy low).

The problem as I see it is figuring out, in real time, which way the cookie is crumbling. Guess wrong and you're completely screwed. Guess right and you're much less screwed, but still likely messed up. Timing is also a huge issue since mis-timing the event horizon can cost you plenty, or, decisions will have been made for you at that point.

I'm sure my dad, who lived thru GD1, is spinning in his grave at all the (IMHO legitimate) talk about the collapse of the US economy.

View Quote


No, there is no possibility of "turning around the death spiral." No administration could do it even if they wanted to. It's mathematically impossible to pay off the debt.  Every "dollar" or precisely every FRN that exists has been borrowed by the gov. Even if they completely shut down the gov, it still wouldn't be enough.

If they even tried to pay off the debt, it would collapse the economy back to stone age.  The FRNs, as evidence of debt, would decrease and so would credit and everything runs on credit.

It's a runaway train, nothing can be done.  Clearly they have chosen the "Inflate till the end" strategy.


Link Posted: 7/30/2015 8:55:51 PM EDT
[#16]
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The fed does not have debt.

The US Treasury has debt. The fed buys that debt. It has been happening for 6 years. When there is more debt being offered for sale than there are buyers for, the rates of return would normally go up to entice buyers to buy. But that makes interest rates go up. So instead, the fed buys that debt at the low interest rates being offered.

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Russia is in no economic position for war.

We have taken down at least 2 me nations that decided to trade outside the dollar, probably more.


China is about to collapse economically too.


I think we will keep printing g monopoly money, near zero interest rates, and be the prettiest pig by comparison for I hope 5 to 10 more years.


the problem is that foreigners, at some point, will stop buying us debt.
this will mean the fed reserve system will have to buy it's own debt, which is the equivalent of running the printing press. It's already happening.



The fed does not have debt.

The US Treasury has debt. The fed buys that debt. It has been happening for 6 years. When there is more debt being offered for sale than there are buyers for, the rates of return would normally go up to entice buyers to buy. But that makes interest rates go up. So instead, the fed buys that debt at the low interest rates being offered.



The fed buying the debt sounds educated and sophisticated but it just means the cannot find foreign buyers to sell the debt to and are instead running the printing presses. Massive inflation.


Link Posted: 7/30/2015 8:57:51 PM EDT
[#17]
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The fed reserve has and will buy debt. When there are not enough buyers of US debt, instead of the rates of return going up to entice buyers, and raising rates, the fed reserve buys the debt, at the low offered rates. Problem solved. .
View Quote



Problem is not solved. "Fed buying the debt" is an elliptical way of saying "We are going to wear out the printing presses".  They create 'money' out of nothing.  The fed buying the debt is one of the last agonies of the present financial system. When they talk about buying the debt, you know the end is near.

Link Posted: 7/30/2015 11:48:25 PM EDT
[#18]
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Quoted:



Problem is not solved. "Fed buying the debt" is an elliptical way of saying "We are going to wear out the printing presses".  They create 'money' out of nothing.  The fed buying the debt is one of the last agonies of the present financial system. When they talk about buying the debt, you know the end is near.

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Quoted:

The fed reserve has and will buy debt. When there are not enough buyers of US debt, instead of the rates of return going up to entice buyers, and raising rates, the fed reserve buys the debt, at the low offered rates. Problem solved. .



Problem is not solved. "Fed buying the debt" is an elliptical way of saying "We are going to wear out the printing presses".  They create 'money' out of nothing.  The fed buying the debt is one of the last agonies of the present financial system. When they talk about buying the debt, you know the end is near.


It also means that the Fed owns America.  Psst!  They paid nothing when they bought the debt too.  
Link Posted: 7/31/2015 8:11:50 AM EDT
[#19]
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Quoted:



Problem is not solved. "Fed buying the debt" is an elliptical way of saying "We are going to wear out the printing presses".  They create 'money' out of nothing.  The fed buying the debt is one of the last agonies of the present financial system. When they talk about buying the debt, you know the end is near.

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Quoted:
Quoted:

The fed reserve has and will buy debt. When there are not enough buyers of US debt, instead of the rates of return going up to entice buyers, and raising rates, the fed reserve buys the debt, at the low offered rates. Problem solved. .



Problem is not solved. "Fed buying the debt" is an elliptical way of saying "We are going to wear out the printing presses".  They create 'money' out of nothing.  The fed buying the debt is one of the last agonies of the present financial system. When they talk about buying the debt, you know the end is near.



As I posted above, it does solve the problem of having to refinance the debt with more debt. When the fed 'buys' the debt, they don't need their money back because they created the money to begin with to 'buy' the debt. So that debt will never be redeemed. problem solved because if it is never redeemed, it isn't really debt.

It is nothing more than QE, by dumping money into the treasury to be spent by the govt., except it is mostly hidden because people think the fed reserve is investing in treasury debt  like any other entity.

And I agree,  it is the end game when they have to do this, but it will likely take a very long time to implode.
Link Posted: 7/31/2015 5:34:33 PM EDT
[#20]
"As I posted above, it does solve the problem of having to refinance the debt with more debt. When the fed 'buys' the debt, they don't need their money back because they created the money to begin with to 'buy' the debt. So that debt will never be redeemed. problem solved because if it is never redeemed, it isn't really debt. "

That is not true. The treasuries that fed buys are just like every other one. At one point they were selling shorter dated debt and buying longer term debt to try and give the treasury some more relief. The debt still matures. The fed at this point has stopped buying more debt but is rolling the debt over as it matures. But they have already stated that the first step to bring down their balance sheet is to start letting the treasuries and freddy/fanny bonds mature and be redeemed. When they will start that is anyones guess. They actually have fanny/freddy paper on their books then treasuries. The interest they make on these and regular bank deposits that they hold is given back to the treasury each year.

The fed is still independent of the government and is run like a bank.  If the treasury could just go out and print money on it's own we would really be screwed.
Link Posted: 7/31/2015 6:52:20 PM EDT
[#21]
Drudge is linking to an article...

"U.S. wage growth brakes in second-quarter; consumer sentiment slips"


So, I ask again, where are the INCOMES coming from to support Hyperinflation????




Link Posted: 7/31/2015 7:16:15 PM EDT
[#22]
I'll gladly take all your worthless fiat currency.

ZOMG yellow metal!
Link Posted: 7/31/2015 8:09:09 PM EDT
[#23]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:


No, there is no possibility of "turning around the death spiral." No administration could do it even if they wanted to. It's mathematically impossible to pay off the debt.  Every "dollar" or precisely every FRN that exists has been borrowed by the gov. Even if they completely shut down the gov, it still wouldn't be enough.

If they even tried to pay off the debt, it would collapse the economy back to stone age.  The FRNs, as evidence of debt, would decrease and so would credit and everything runs on credit.

It's a runaway train, nothing can be done.  Clearly they have chosen the "Inflate till the end" strategy.

View Quote View All Quotes
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Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Quoted:

There is a possibility that a new conservative administration, washed in with a conservative majority of both houses, could turn around the death spiral. I frankly don't see that happening in 2016, probably not in 2020 either.

Another possibility is that countries around the globe could, suddenly, get their $hit together and become productive again. Economies would boom again and "growth" could alleviate the stress on the financial systems globally. I see this as very unlikely for a variety of geopolitical reasons.

If the present course is maintained, eventually, the interest on the massive US debt will be unsupportable by total tax revenues. If interest rates rise to historical norms of 5-6%, this will happen almost immediately. Even if the Fed keeps the printing press going to keep ZIRP, eventually it won't matter because even with near-zero rates, the debt will be so high as to surpass the ability of the nation to pay even the interest on the debt. If that happens, a default is inevitable, pretty much hosing over most of the planet.

Some predict that if our debt surpasses our ability to pay, that we become Zimbabwe in a hyperinflationary runaway mine train. Others predict if we default on our debt, or even if we run out of people/countries wanting to buy our debt, we will have a deflationary collapse that makes GD1 look like a Sunday picnic. In the first scenario, it makes the most sense to convert cash to tangible real assets as quickly as possible (buy low, sell high). In the second, selling assets quickly and holding a large cash stash will pay off handsomely by being able to re-aquire assets at a much lower price (sell high, buy low).

The problem as I see it is figuring out, in real time, which way the cookie is crumbling. Guess wrong and you're completely screwed. Guess right and you're much less screwed, but still likely messed up. Timing is also a huge issue since mis-timing the event horizon can cost you plenty, or, decisions will have been made for you at that point.

I'm sure my dad, who lived thru GD1, is spinning in his grave at all the (IMHO legitimate) talk about the collapse of the US economy.



No, there is no possibility of "turning around the death spiral." No administration could do it even if they wanted to. It's mathematically impossible to pay off the debt.  Every "dollar" or precisely every FRN that exists has been borrowed by the gov. Even if they completely shut down the gov, it still wouldn't be enough.

If they even tried to pay off the debt, it would collapse the economy back to stone age.  The FRNs, as evidence of debt, would decrease and so would credit and everything runs on credit.

It's a runaway train, nothing can be done.  Clearly they have chosen the "Inflate till the end" strategy.



I'm not convinced that there is no possibility of righting the ship of state. While the debt is large, if there was a "surplus" of, say, a trillion a year or so that could be used to pay down the debt, then even though it would take a while, it could be done. The basic, fundamental problem, as I see it, is that we now have a group of self-serving politicians who refuse to even reduce the rate of growth in spending, much less actually CUT spending. Furthermore, this same bunch, along with a group of rabid zealots in regulatory agencies, have created a nightmare/quagmire that guarantees that our economy is going to contract and can't possibly generate escape velocity to recovery.

Until the useless political class is dissolved and our elected representatives clean out the dead wood in our laws and regulations that are strangling us, I don't see a happy ending to this particular drama. That's not to say it can't possibly happen, but I'm not optimistic about the likelihood.
Link Posted: 7/31/2015 8:56:20 PM EDT
[#24]
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I have thought about that too.  But I think the government would adjust the loans to account for inflation to save the banks.  That's what would probably happen.
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Hyperinflationary collapse is inevitable

All paper currencies inevitably turn into dust. Often causing a gov / social collapse. As I see it, it's the biggest source of concern and the most likely TSHTF situation. It's a runaway train, nothing can be done about it. The debt cannot be repaid in any other way. Other than inflating the currency into oblivion. This is the future of US. Hard to say where will go from there. If the gov will take the hyperinflated currency, remove about 5 zeros and create a new fiat currency. Or if will collapse completely.


sounds like a great opportunity to be heavily in debt -- in fact, have A LOT of debt.

for example:
mortgage that US$1M dream house w/ farmland you were always wanting; hyperinflation happens, pay lender back the loan in full with inflated dollars.  
tractors, cars, trucks, everything could be acquired the same way -- get the loans, take delivery of the equipment, and just wait for hyperinflation.


what is stopping you?

ar-jedi

I have thought about that too.  But I think the government would adjust the loans to account for inflation to save the banks.  That's what would probably happen.


so the "government" would modify the existing contract between you and Wells Fargo, and/or you and Ford Motor Credit, and/or you and John Deere Financing?

a third party can simply step in and modify existing business contracts at will?

ar-jedi

Link Posted: 7/31/2015 10:13:37 PM EDT
[#25]
We can't grow the economy fast enough to create the wealth needed to pay back the debt.... so on paper at least there will be a day when the government must cut back all but service payments on the debt.....unless....unless two things (that I can think of).

a) we discover or declare we discover an asteroid of Platinum that's worth trillions and thus declare that to be our "fort. Knox". (the Roman version of this move was to declare they discovered a mountain of pure gold in the Libyan desert thus allowing Nero to keep borrowing since the 'mountain' was his collateral).

b) we fundamentally change the political promises behind artificially keeping the cost of health care and education high - thus instantly cratering the health care and educational complexes but also instantly giving everyone else a huge generational reprieve from the built in expectation of 5 to 6% annual rate hikes. This is well spelled out in Karl Denninger's Market ticker blog.

I suppose another way out is world war that results in the loss of 50-60 million Americans who happen to be about ready to retire or are retired and thus draw on SS, Medicare and Medicaid.... but their loss, while relieving or eliminating the unfunded liabilities for federal and state pension funds, would also mean enormous wealth transfers to next of kin via wills and bequests, enormous job openings for Gen. Xers....but also perhaps a permanent loss of the human capital that makes America the superpower we are. The government might be solvent but it might not matter much.
Link Posted: 8/1/2015 5:05:18 AM EDT
[#26]
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Quoted:


so the "government" would modify the existing contract between you and Wells Fargo, and/or you and Ford Motor Credit, and/or you and John Deere Financing?

a third party can simply step in and modify existing business contracts at will?

ar-jedi

View Quote View All Quotes
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Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Hyperinflationary collapse is inevitable

All paper currencies inevitably turn into dust. Often causing a gov / social collapse. As I see it, it's the biggest source of concern and the most likely TSHTF situation. It's a runaway train, nothing can be done about it. The debt cannot be repaid in any other way. Other than inflating the currency into oblivion. This is the future of US. Hard to say where will go from there. If the gov will take the hyperinflated currency, remove about 5 zeros and create a new fiat currency. Or if will collapse completely.


sounds like a great opportunity to be heavily in debt -- in fact, have A LOT of debt.

for example:
mortgage that US$1M dream house w/ farmland you were always wanting; hyperinflation happens, pay lender back the loan in full with inflated dollars.  
tractors, cars, trucks, everything could be acquired the same way -- get the loans, take delivery of the equipment, and just wait for hyperinflation.


what is stopping you?

ar-jedi

I have thought about that too.  But I think the government would adjust the loans to account for inflation to save the banks.  That's what would probably happen.


so the "government" would modify the existing contract between you and Wells Fargo, and/or you and Ford Motor Credit, and/or you and John Deere Financing?

a third party can simply step in and modify existing business contracts at will?

ar-jedi



It did with GM. The bond holders for screwed in that deal and the unions walked away with more of the company. Who else is it going to run rough shod over?
Link Posted: 8/1/2015 8:56:56 AM EDT
[#27]
One of the last linchpins is the "war on cash" you keep hearing about over and over in the media.

If it's all digital, then no run on bank, no standing in line all day Greece style to get a paltry sum out of an ATM.

I don't know how that will work out for them, as the illegal immigration problem has continued to fuel the cash only economy. Course if they suddenly give 20 million or whatever illegals citizenship...? Who knows.


As to the timing- never underestimate their ability to pull rabbit out of hats and further forestall this thing again and again.

I think you should protect yourself right now if your in the market at all, sit on the sidelines for a bit.
Link Posted: 8/1/2015 9:04:24 AM EDT
[#28]
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Quoted:


It did with GM. The bond holders for screwed in that deal and the unions walked away with more of the company. Who else is it going to run rough shod over?
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It did with GM. The bond holders for screwed in that deal and the unions walked away with more of the company. Who else is it going to run rough shod over?


http://www.nationalaffairs.com/publications/detail/the-auto-bailout-and-the-rule-of-law

After the bailouts came the arranged bankruptcies. At first, when the government announced that Chrysler and General Motors would be filing for Chapter 11, the news was received with relief by the market, the companies' creditors, and everyone concerned for the rule of law. The mess created by the bailout could finally begin to move from the political arena to the legal arena, and so regain some semblance of legitimacy and order.

But it wasn't long before these hopes were dashed by the government's management of the process. Instead of a regular bankruptcy proceeding, the Obama administration, working with the automakers, patched together a process without precedent — a bankruptcy combined with a bailout, incorporating the worst elements of both.

Of the two proceedings, Chrysler's was clearly the more egregious. In the years leading up to the economic crisis, Chrysler had been unable to acquire routine financing and so had been forced to turn to so-called secured debt in order to fund its operations. Secured debt takes first priority in payment; it is also typically preserved during bankruptcy under what is referred to as the "absolute priority" rule — since the lender of secured debt offers a loan to a troubled borrower only because he is guaranteed first repayment when the loan is up. In the Chrysler case, however, creditors who held the company's secured bonds were steamrolled into accepting 29 cents on the dollar for their loans. Meanwhile, the underfunded pension plans of the United Auto Workers — unsecured creditors, but possessed of better political connections — received more than 40 cents on the dollar.

Moreover, in a typical bankruptcy case in which a secured creditor is not paid in full, he is entitled to a "deficiency claim" — the terms of which keep the bankrupt company liable for a portion of the unpaid debt. In both the Chrysler and GM bankruptcies, however, no deficiency claims were awarded to the wronged creditors. Were bankruptcy experts to comb through American history, they would be hard-pressed to identify any bankruptcy case with similar terms.

To make matters worse, both bankruptcies were orchestrated as so-called "section 363" sales. This meant that essentially all the assets of "old Chrysler" were sold to "new Chrysler" (and "old GM" to "new GM"), and were pushed through in a rush. These sales violated the longstanding bankruptcy principle that an asset sale should not be functionally equivalent to a plan of re-organization for an entire company — what bankruptcy lawyers call a "sub rosa plan." The reason is that the re-organization process offers all creditors the right to vote on the proposed plan as well as a chance to offer competing re-organization plans, while an asset sale can be carried out without such a vote.

In the cases of GM and Chrysler, however, the government essentially pushed through a re-organization disguised as a sale, and so denied the creditors their rights. As the University of Pennsylvania's David Skeel observed last year, "selling" an entire company of GM or Chrysler's size and complexity in this manner was unprecedented. Even on a smaller scale, it would have been highly irregular: While rush bankruptcy sales of much smaller companies were once common, the bankruptcy laws were overhauled in 1978 precisely to eliminate this practice.

At first, the fact that the companies' creditors (and especially Chrysler's creditors, who were so badly mistreated) put up with such terms and waived their property rights seems astonishing. But it becomes less so — and sheds more light on how this entire process imperils the rule of law — when one considers the enormous leverage the federal government had over most of these creditors. Many of Chrysler's secured-bond holders were large financial institutions — several of which had previously been saved from failure by TARP. Though there is no explicit evidence that support from TARP funds bought these bond holders' acquiescence in the Chrysler case, their silence in the face of a massive financial haircut is otherwise very difficult to explain.

Indeed, those secured-bond holders who were not supported by TARP did not go nearly as quietly. A group of hedge funds that were among Chrysler's creditors initially objected to the bailout plan that preferred the UAW at their expense. In a now-infamous speech in April 2009, President Obama publicly attacked these investors — who were merely standing up for their contract and property rights — as profiteers, criticizing them for their unwillingness to make the same sacrifices as other investors (but not, of course, UAW members, who received a windfall). In response to this public browbeating from the president of the United States, the hedge funds caved and agreed to the terms. In the end, only one group of Chrysler bond holders — the Indiana state teacher and police pension funds — continued to object. Indeed, they objected at every stage of the process, but the Supreme Court declined to hear their case.

General Motors, too, had issued secured debt during its years of financial turmoil, but these bonds made up a far smaller fraction of the company's total outstanding debt. And in striking contrast with the Chrysler case, General Motors's bankruptcy plan left the secured creditors intact, paying them the full value of their claims. From the perspective of bankruptcy law and contract rights, this development was encouraging: The Obama administration did not seek to plunder GM's secured creditors as it had Chrysler's. From the perspective of the rule of law, however, this differential treatment might have been even more troubling.

On the matter of secured-bond holders, the cases of GM and Chrysler were functionally indistinguishable — and yet GM's secured creditors were treated far better than Chrysler's. The administration offered no public justification for this differential treatment, and to an outside observer, there was only one key difference between the cases: The amount of GM's secured debt was relatively small compared to Chrysler's. The obvious conclusion, then, is that the difference in how the government treated the automakers' creditors was purely a matter of expediency — hardly a justifiable rationale.

Link Posted: 8/1/2015 9:48:56 AM EDT
[#29]
Our New .Gov will do anything it wants.

There's no accountability any longer.

We're actually in WROL in some areas.

As well as being disenfranchised in Nat'l elections.


Yet most worry -witch gun for SHTF    While staring at their flat-screens or taking selfies.



Link Posted: 8/1/2015 9:56:37 AM EDT
[#30]
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Quoted:


so the "government" would modify the existing contract between you and Wells Fargo, and/or you and Ford Motor Credit, and/or you and John Deere Financing?

a third party can simply step in and modify existing business contracts at will?

ar-jedi

View Quote View All Quotes
View All Quotes
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Hyperinflationary collapse is inevitable

All paper currencies inevitably turn into dust. Often causing a gov / social collapse. As I see it, it's the biggest source of concern and the most likely TSHTF situation. It's a runaway train, nothing can be done about it. The debt cannot be repaid in any other way. Other than inflating the currency into oblivion. This is the future of US. Hard to say where will go from there. If the gov will take the hyperinflated currency, remove about 5 zeros and create a new fiat currency. Or if will collapse completely.


sounds like a great opportunity to be heavily in debt -- in fact, have A LOT of debt.

for example:
mortgage that US$1M dream house w/ farmland you were always wanting; hyperinflation happens, pay lender back the loan in full with inflated dollars.  
tractors, cars, trucks, everything could be acquired the same way -- get the loans, take delivery of the equipment, and just wait for hyperinflation.


what is stopping you?

ar-jedi

I have thought about that too.  But I think the government would adjust the loans to account for inflation to save the banks.  That's what would probably happen.


so the "government" would modify the existing contract between you and Wells Fargo, and/or you and Ford Motor Credit, and/or you and John Deere Financing?

a third party can simply step in and modify existing business contracts at will?

ar-jedi



It will be done with some kind of forced exchange similar to Germany when they reunited.  Or some other method we have not yet dreamed up.  And whatever the exchange rate is will not be favorable.  

With all due respect; your crazy if you think the government is going to leave the banks holding the bag and let the common Joe walk away with a hard assets for pennies on the dollar.  Never going to happen.



Link Posted: 8/1/2015 9:58:43 AM EDT
[#31]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:


I'm not convinced that there is no possibility of righting the ship of state. While the debt is large, if there was a "surplus" of, say, a trillion a year or so that could be used to pay down the debt, then even though it would take a while, it could be done. The basic, fundamental problem, as I see it, is that we now have a group of self-serving politicians who refuse to even reduce the rate of growth in spending, much less actually CUT spending. Furthermore, this same bunch, along with a group of rabid zealots in regulatory agencies, have created a nightmare/quagmire that guarantees that our economy is going to contract and can't possibly generate escape velocity to recovery.

Until the useless political class is dissolved and our elected representatives clean out the dead wood in our laws and regulations that are strangling us, I don't see a happy ending to this particular drama. That's not to say it can't possibly happen, but I'm not optimistic about the likelihood.
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There is a possibility that a new conservative administration, washed in with a conservative majority of both houses, could turn around the death spiral. I frankly don't see that happening in 2016, probably not in 2020 either.

Another possibility is that countries around the globe could, suddenly, get their $hit together and become productive again. Economies would boom again and "growth" could alleviate the stress on the financial systems globally. I see this as very unlikely for a variety of geopolitical reasons.

If the present course is maintained, eventually, the interest on the massive US debt will be unsupportable by total tax revenues. If interest rates rise to historical norms of 5-6%, this will happen almost immediately. Even if the Fed keeps the printing press going to keep ZIRP, eventually it won't matter because even with near-zero rates, the debt will be so high as to surpass the ability of the nation to pay even the interest on the debt. If that happens, a default is inevitable, pretty much hosing over most of the planet.

Some predict that if our debt surpasses our ability to pay, that we become Zimbabwe in a hyperinflationary runaway mine train. Others predict if we default on our debt, or even if we run out of people/countries wanting to buy our debt, we will have a deflationary collapse that makes GD1 look like a Sunday picnic. In the first scenario, it makes the most sense to convert cash to tangible real assets as quickly as possible (buy low, sell high). In the second, selling assets quickly and holding a large cash stash will pay off handsomely by being able to re-aquire assets at a much lower price (sell high, buy low).

The problem as I see it is figuring out, in real time, which way the cookie is crumbling. Guess wrong and you're completely screwed. Guess right and you're much less screwed, but still likely messed up. Timing is also a huge issue since mis-timing the event horizon can cost you plenty, or, decisions will have been made for you at that point.

I'm sure my dad, who lived thru GD1, is spinning in his grave at all the (IMHO legitimate) talk about the collapse of the US economy.



No, there is no possibility of "turning around the death spiral." No administration could do it even if they wanted to. It's mathematically impossible to pay off the debt.  Every "dollar" or precisely every FRN that exists has been borrowed by the gov. Even if they completely shut down the gov, it still wouldn't be enough.

If they even tried to pay off the debt, it would collapse the economy back to stone age.  The FRNs, as evidence of debt, would decrease and so would credit and everything runs on credit.

It's a runaway train, nothing can be done.  Clearly they have chosen the "Inflate till the end" strategy.



I'm not convinced that there is no possibility of righting the ship of state. While the debt is large, if there was a "surplus" of, say, a trillion a year or so that could be used to pay down the debt, then even though it would take a while, it could be done. The basic, fundamental problem, as I see it, is that we now have a group of self-serving politicians who refuse to even reduce the rate of growth in spending, much less actually CUT spending. Furthermore, this same bunch, along with a group of rabid zealots in regulatory agencies, have created a nightmare/quagmire that guarantees that our economy is going to contract and can't possibly generate escape velocity to recovery.

Until the useless political class is dissolved and our elected representatives clean out the dead wood in our laws and regulations that are strangling us, I don't see a happy ending to this particular drama. That's not to say it can't possibly happen, but I'm not optimistic about the likelihood.





"I'm not convinced that there is no possibility of righting the ship of state. While the debt is large, if there was a "surplus" of, say, a trillion a year or so that could be used to pay down the debt, then even though it would take a while, it could be done. The basic, fundamental problem, as I see it, is that we now have a group of self-serving politicians who refuse to even reduce the rate of growth in spending, much less actually CUT spending. "


Would you specify one -just one- realistic and material instance of ANYTHING our .gov and/or the citizens might reasonably be expected to do, that could support your premise.

Or is it just Wishful Thinking?




Blaming the politicians and regulators for mismanagement and corruption, is like blaming the mountain lion for killing cute bunnies...

It's what they do!

The REAL ISSUE is the VOTERS who ENABLE them.

[Including the soon to be 50,000,000+ illegals  and their kids ----who our present .gov has facilitated to infiltrate our society -and so 'they' can TAKE IT OVER!]


Why is this so difficult to comprehend -or adjust personal Normalcy Bias issues to????



Now duh, witch gun should I buy next...

Or should I stay shallow, and watch dancing with the latest Politically Correct Agenda retards and social freaks ---selected and calculated to brainwash and destroy our and our kids' sense of social normalcy????


Link Posted: 8/1/2015 10:21:09 AM EDT
[#32]
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It will be done with some kind of forced exchange similar to Germany when they reunited.  Or some other method we have not yet dreamed up.  And whatever the exchange rate is will not be favorable.  

With all due respect; your crazy if you think the government is going to leave the banks holding the bag and let the common Joe walk away with a hard assets for pennies on the dollar.  Never going to happen.



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Hyperinflationary collapse is inevitable

All paper currencies inevitably turn into dust. Often causing a gov / social collapse. As I see it, it's the biggest source of concern and the most likely TSHTF situation. It's a runaway train, nothing can be done about it. The debt cannot be repaid in any other way. Other than inflating the currency into oblivion. This is the future of US. Hard to say where will go from there. If the gov will take the hyperinflated currency, remove about 5 zeros and create a new fiat currency. Or if will collapse completely.


sounds like a great opportunity to be heavily in debt -- in fact, have A LOT of debt.

for example:
mortgage that US$1M dream house w/ farmland you were always wanting; hyperinflation happens, pay lender back the loan in full with inflated dollars.  
tractors, cars, trucks, everything could be acquired the same way -- get the loans, take delivery of the equipment, and just wait for hyperinflation.


what is stopping you?

ar-jedi

I have thought about that too.  But I think the government would adjust the loans to account for inflation to save the banks.  That's what would probably happen.


so the "government" would modify the existing contract between you and Wells Fargo, and/or you and Ford Motor Credit, and/or you and John Deere Financing?

a third party can simply step in and modify existing business contracts at will?

ar-jedi



It will be done with some kind of forced exchange similar to Germany when they reunited.  Or some other method we have not yet dreamed up.  And whatever the exchange rate is will not be favorable.  

With all due respect; your crazy if you think the government is going to leave the banks holding the bag and let the common Joe walk away with a hard assets for pennies on the dollar.  Never going to happen.





Revaluing the debt has been done before.  Concur that it is highly unlikely that anyone with debt and still in possession of the land or chattel will walk away free.  That only happens if the debtor can pay off in hyper-inflated currency but once a new currency is issued, then the debt is recalculated to the new currency.

Now, with respects to paying off the hyper-inflated currency, that did happen in Weimar Germany, but most people weren't in a position to pay off their debts.  All their money went to food to feed themselves.  One German who did well got a bank loan with which he bought a farm.  After he harvested the crops, he paid off his loan (for the farm), bought another farm, some gonnes and new clothes.  This was all before a new mark was issued.
Link Posted: 8/1/2015 10:27:57 PM EDT
[#33]
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Quoted:





"I'm not convinced that there is no possibility of righting the ship of state. While the debt is large, if there was a "surplus" of, say, a trillion a year or so that could be used to pay down the debt, then even though it would take a while, it could be done. The basic, fundamental problem, as I see it, is that we now have a group of self-serving politicians who refuse to even reduce the rate of growth in spending, much less actually CUT spending. "


Would you specify one -just one- realistic and material instance of ANYTHING our .gov and/or the citizens might reasonably be expected to do, that could support your premise.

Or is it just Wishful Thinking?




Blaming the politicians and regulators for mismanagement and corruption, is like blaming the mountain lion for killing cute bunnies...

It's what they do!

The REAL ISSUE is the VOTERS who ENABLE them.

[Including the soon to be 50,000,000+ illegals  and their kids ----who our present .gov has facilitated to infiltrate our society -and so 'they' can TAKE IT OVER!]


Why is this so difficult to comprehend -or adjust personal Normalcy Bias issues to????



Now duh, witch gun should I buy next...

Or should I stay shallow, and watch dancing with the latest Politically Correct Agenda retards and social freaks ---selected and calculated to brainwash and destroy our and our kids' sense of social normalcy????


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<snip>

I'm not convinced that there is no possibility of righting the ship of state. While the debt is large, if there was a "surplus" of, say, a trillion a year or so that could be used to pay down the debt, then even though it would take a while, it could be done. The basic, fundamental problem, as I see it, is that we now have a group of self-serving politicians who refuse to even reduce the rate of growth in spending, much less actually CUT spending. Furthermore, this same bunch, along with a group of rabid zealots in regulatory agencies, have created a nightmare/quagmire that guarantees that our economy is going to contract and can't possibly generate escape velocity to recovery.

Until the useless political class is dissolved and our elected representatives clean out the dead wood in our laws and regulations that are strangling us, I don't see a happy ending to this particular drama. That's not to say it can't possibly happen, but I'm not optimistic about the likelihood.





"I'm not convinced that there is no possibility of righting the ship of state. While the debt is large, if there was a "surplus" of, say, a trillion a year or so that could be used to pay down the debt, then even though it would take a while, it could be done. The basic, fundamental problem, as I see it, is that we now have a group of self-serving politicians who refuse to even reduce the rate of growth in spending, much less actually CUT spending. "


Would you specify one -just one- realistic and material instance of ANYTHING our .gov and/or the citizens might reasonably be expected to do, that could support your premise.

Or is it just Wishful Thinking?




Blaming the politicians and regulators for mismanagement and corruption, is like blaming the mountain lion for killing cute bunnies...

It's what they do!

The REAL ISSUE is the VOTERS who ENABLE them.

[Including the soon to be 50,000,000+ illegals  and their kids ----who our present .gov has facilitated to infiltrate our society -and so 'they' can TAKE IT OVER!]


Why is this so difficult to comprehend -or adjust personal Normalcy Bias issues to????



Now duh, witch gun should I buy next...

Or should I stay shallow, and watch dancing with the latest Politically Correct Agenda retards and social freaks ---selected and calculated to brainwash and destroy our and our kids' sense of social normalcy????




Well, duh, of course it's wishful thinking.

Perhaps if we were to elect a known "bidnessman" that would hammer idiot members of both parties for doing stupid $hit, perhaps there would be more backbone amongst the electorate. Right now, there's so many people that believe they don't really have a choice, they've just tuned it all out. To an extent, they're right - too many RINOs in the GOP camp and too many communists in the Dimocrat party. I'm convinced that's why Trump is "trumping" the establishment Redumblicans so easily. He's not politically correct, he's not a go along to get along guy, and he has no compunction at all in calling out any member of either party that does something stupid. That, and the fact he really doesn't need all that PAC money to get elected so he doesn't have to be beholden to anybody. That's what somebody here called "FU money". Besides, being a pompous, arrogant, ass doesn't mean he isn't right about immigration, American manufacturing jobs, our currently horribly inept foreign policy, and the bad economy.

Maybe part of the reason why our current crop of politicians don't give a hoot about the runaway train is that they figure they'll take care of themselves with the public treasury in the event of calamity. History would say that is a bad strategy as it didn't work out well for the French royalty, for example.
Link Posted: 8/2/2015 12:19:45 AM EDT
[#34]
Gotta agree with your last post Plane
Link Posted: 8/2/2015 3:12:55 PM EDT
[#35]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:





"I'm not convinced that there is no possibility of righting the ship of state. While the debt is large, if there was a "surplus" of, say, a trillion a year or so that could be used to pay down the debt, then even though it would take a while, it could be done. The basic, fundamental problem, as I see it, is that we now have a group of self-serving politicians who refuse to even reduce the rate of growth in spending, much less actually CUT spending. "


Would you specify one -just one- realistic and material instance of ANYTHING our .gov and/or the citizens might reasonably be expected to do, that could support your premise.

Or is it just Wishful Thinking?




Blaming the politicians and regulators for mismanagement and corruption, is like blaming the mountain lion for killing cute bunnies...

It's what they do!

The REAL ISSUE is the VOTERS who ENABLE them.

[Including the soon to be 50,000,000+ illegals  and their kids ----who our present .gov has facilitated to infiltrate our society -and so 'they' can TAKE IT OVER!]


Why is this so difficult to comprehend -or adjust personal Normalcy Bias issues to????



Now duh, witch gun should I buy next...

Or should I stay shallow, and watch dancing with the latest Politically Correct Agenda retards and social freaks ---selected and calculated to brainwash and destroy our and our kids' sense of social normalcy????


View Quote View All Quotes
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Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:

There is a possibility that a new conservative administration, washed in with a conservative majority of both houses, could turn around the death spiral. I frankly don't see that happening in 2016, probably not in 2020 either.

Another possibility is that countries around the globe could, suddenly, get their $hit together and become productive again. Economies would boom again and "growth" could alleviate the stress on the financial systems globally. I see this as very unlikely for a variety of geopolitical reasons.

If the present course is maintained, eventually, the interest on the massive US debt will be unsupportable by total tax revenues. If interest rates rise to historical norms of 5-6%, this will happen almost immediately. Even if the Fed keeps the printing press going to keep ZIRP, eventually it won't matter because even with near-zero rates, the debt will be so high as to surpass the ability of the nation to pay even the interest on the debt. If that happens, a default is inevitable, pretty much hosing over most of the planet.

Some predict that if our debt surpasses our ability to pay, that we become Zimbabwe in a hyperinflationary runaway mine train. Others predict if we default on our debt, or even if we run out of people/countries wanting to buy our debt, we will have a deflationary collapse that makes GD1 look like a Sunday picnic. In the first scenario, it makes the most sense to convert cash to tangible real assets as quickly as possible (buy low, sell high). In the second, selling assets quickly and holding a large cash stash will pay off handsomely by being able to re-aquire assets at a much lower price (sell high, buy low).

The problem as I see it is figuring out, in real time, which way the cookie is crumbling. Guess wrong and you're completely screwed. Guess right and you're much less screwed, but still likely messed up. Timing is also a huge issue since mis-timing the event horizon can cost you plenty, or, decisions will have been made for you at that point.

I'm sure my dad, who lived thru GD1, is spinning in his grave at all the (IMHO legitimate) talk about the collapse of the US economy.



No, there is no possibility of "turning around the death spiral." No administration could do it even if they wanted to. It's mathematically impossible to pay off the debt.  Every "dollar" or precisely every FRN that exists has been borrowed by the gov. Even if they completely shut down the gov, it still wouldn't be enough.

If they even tried to pay off the debt, it would collapse the economy back to stone age.  The FRNs, as evidence of debt, would decrease and so would credit and everything runs on credit.

It's a runaway train, nothing can be done.  Clearly they have chosen the "Inflate till the end" strategy.



I'm not convinced that there is no possibility of righting the ship of state. While the debt is large, if there was a "surplus" of, say, a trillion a year or so that could be used to pay down the debt, then even though it would take a while, it could be done. The basic, fundamental problem, as I see it, is that we now have a group of self-serving politicians who refuse to even reduce the rate of growth in spending, much less actually CUT spending. Furthermore, this same bunch, along with a group of rabid zealots in regulatory agencies, have created a nightmare/quagmire that guarantees that our economy is going to contract and can't possibly generate escape velocity to recovery.

Until the useless political class is dissolved and our elected representatives clean out the dead wood in our laws and regulations that are strangling us, I don't see a happy ending to this particular drama. That's not to say it can't possibly happen, but I'm not optimistic about the likelihood.





"I'm not convinced that there is no possibility of righting the ship of state. While the debt is large, if there was a "surplus" of, say, a trillion a year or so that could be used to pay down the debt, then even though it would take a while, it could be done. The basic, fundamental problem, as I see it, is that we now have a group of self-serving politicians who refuse to even reduce the rate of growth in spending, much less actually CUT spending. "


Would you specify one -just one- realistic and material instance of ANYTHING our .gov and/or the citizens might reasonably be expected to do, that could support your premise.

Or is it just Wishful Thinking?




Blaming the politicians and regulators for mismanagement and corruption, is like blaming the mountain lion for killing cute bunnies...

It's what they do!

The REAL ISSUE is the VOTERS who ENABLE them.

[Including the soon to be 50,000,000+ illegals  and their kids ----who our present .gov has facilitated to infiltrate our society -and so 'they' can TAKE IT OVER!]


Why is this so difficult to comprehend -or adjust personal Normalcy Bias issues to????



Now duh, witch gun should I buy next...

Or should I stay shallow, and watch dancing with the latest Politically Correct Agenda retards and social freaks ---selected and calculated to brainwash and destroy our and our kids' sense of social normalcy????




So in a nutshell what is the solution? We can't go to war, we can't get them fired, we can't hold them accountable. They are entrenched too deep. Do we have to let it all burn down and start over? Do we light the match? There is really no place to run to and how from this calamity. Does this herald the antichrist? I ask again, what can be done?
Link Posted: 8/2/2015 4:42:14 PM EDT
[#36]
What can be done?

Well, not a whole lot on our own unless we are independently wealthy and/or extremely well connected.

But locally - say, influencing things in our own zip code...actually any typical middle class guy CAN do quite a lot.

Look at the macro situation from the perspective of "how would X hyperinflationary scenario play itself out here locally?" and then game out the pivot points or fulcrum that will make a real difference to outcomes locally.

1) suppose the global economy tanks in a way that includes a real cut in county, state, and federal OUTLAYS... EBT cards, SS, healthcare reductions in rations of wealth redistribution + increases in the costs for living.... what group or individual in power can make all the difference between chaos or mitigating the worst effects? Find that person or group and start getting to know them better. Maybe you can influence them from within or from without....

2) suppose the WROL means the arbitrary use of power leading to systemic breakdown into bribery, graft, corruption.... again, who are the local movers and shakers, the local powers that be? What are their vices? What are their blind spots? Who are their allies and friends? Might knowing a local war-lord's best friend keep you out of jail or worse in such a situation?

3) Mad Max 'grid down' scenarios are dreams because they're unlikely and because in them the powers that be are reduced to desperate refugee status like the rest of us...in reality, war-lords will have the highground (as they do now). so the most we can do is prepare to not be utterly dependent on the local warlord but rather to be useful to him and his roving band of minions. Think feudalism. If you weren't a serf (working for someone else) you needed to be part of a guild or religious order or some military order or some other power broker whom the Local baron or warlord was rightfully concerned with so he (or his hench men) couldn't just have their way with you inasmuch as your friends and liege lord would come asking questions and demanding an answer for why their loyal follower (i.e. YOU) isn't around anymore or is in some jail....

The more things change, the more they stay the same.... the default system of government in world history has been hereditary aristocratic feudalism. Chinese communists are replicating this.... all Communists eventually end up being indistinguishable in action from the former system their grandparents overthrew by changing the names of titles and justifications for governing power....

So...do you want to end up in Christendom or Islam or some neo-imperial Rome or neo-Grecian or Persian empire? Under which form of despotism will we have relatively more rights and freedoms?

In my books, it's Christendom since 12th century serfs had more rights than 17th century Frenchmen.
Link Posted: 8/2/2015 5:41:26 PM EDT
[#37]
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So in a nutshell what is the solution? We can't go to war, we can't get them fired, we can't hold them accountable. They are entrenched too deep. Do we have to let it all burn down and start over? Do we light the match? There is really no place to run to and how from this calamity. Does this herald the antichrist? I ask again, what can be done?
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Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:

There is a possibility that a new conservative administration, washed in with a conservative majority of both houses, could turn around the death spiral. I frankly don't see that happening in 2016, probably not in 2020 either.

Another possibility is that countries around the globe could, suddenly, get their $hit together and become productive again. Economies would boom again and "growth" could alleviate the stress on the financial systems globally. I see this as very unlikely for a variety of geopolitical reasons.

If the present course is maintained, eventually, the interest on the massive US debt will be unsupportable by total tax revenues. If interest rates rise to historical norms of 5-6%, this will happen almost immediately. Even if the Fed keeps the printing press going to keep ZIRP, eventually it won't matter because even with near-zero rates, the debt will be so high as to surpass the ability of the nation to pay even the interest on the debt. If that happens, a default is inevitable, pretty much hosing over most of the planet.

Some predict that if our debt surpasses our ability to pay, that we become Zimbabwe in a hyperinflationary runaway mine train. Others predict if we default on our debt, or even if we run out of people/countries wanting to buy our debt, we will have a deflationary collapse that makes GD1 look like a Sunday picnic. In the first scenario, it makes the most sense to convert cash to tangible real assets as quickly as possible (buy low, sell high). In the second, selling assets quickly and holding a large cash stash will pay off handsomely by being able to re-aquire assets at a much lower price (sell high, buy low).

The problem as I see it is figuring out, in real time, which way the cookie is crumbling. Guess wrong and you're completely screwed. Guess right and you're much less screwed, but still likely messed up. Timing is also a huge issue since mis-timing the event horizon can cost you plenty, or, decisions will have been made for you at that point.

I'm sure my dad, who lived thru GD1, is spinning in his grave at all the (IMHO legitimate) talk about the collapse of the US economy.



No, there is no possibility of "turning around the death spiral." No administration could do it even if they wanted to. It's mathematically impossible to pay off the debt.  Every "dollar" or precisely every FRN that exists has been borrowed by the gov. Even if they completely shut down the gov, it still wouldn't be enough.

If they even tried to pay off the debt, it would collapse the economy back to stone age.  The FRNs, as evidence of debt, would decrease and so would credit and everything runs on credit.

It's a runaway train, nothing can be done.  Clearly they have chosen the "Inflate till the end" strategy.



I'm not convinced that there is no possibility of righting the ship of state. While the debt is large, if there was a "surplus" of, say, a trillion a year or so that could be used to pay down the debt, then even though it would take a while, it could be done. The basic, fundamental problem, as I see it, is that we now have a group of self-serving politicians who refuse to even reduce the rate of growth in spending, much less actually CUT spending. Furthermore, this same bunch, along with a group of rabid zealots in regulatory agencies, have created a nightmare/quagmire that guarantees that our economy is going to contract and can't possibly generate escape velocity to recovery.

Until the useless political class is dissolved and our elected representatives clean out the dead wood in our laws and regulations that are strangling us, I don't see a happy ending to this particular drama. That's not to say it can't possibly happen, but I'm not optimistic about the likelihood.





"I'm not convinced that there is no possibility of righting the ship of state. While the debt is large, if there was a "surplus" of, say, a trillion a year or so that could be used to pay down the debt, then even though it would take a while, it could be done. The basic, fundamental problem, as I see it, is that we now have a group of self-serving politicians who refuse to even reduce the rate of growth in spending, much less actually CUT spending. "


Would you specify one -just one- realistic and material instance of ANYTHING our .gov and/or the citizens might reasonably be expected to do, that could support your premise.

Or is it just Wishful Thinking?




Blaming the politicians and regulators for mismanagement and corruption, is like blaming the mountain lion for killing cute bunnies...

It's what they do!

The REAL ISSUE is the VOTERS who ENABLE them.

[Including the soon to be 50,000,000+ illegals  and their kids ----who our present .gov has facilitated to infiltrate our society -and so 'they' can TAKE IT OVER!]


Why is this so difficult to comprehend -or adjust personal Normalcy Bias issues to????



Now duh, witch gun should I buy next...

Or should I stay shallow, and watch dancing with the latest Politically Correct Agenda retards and social freaks ---selected and calculated to brainwash and destroy our and our kids' sense of social normalcy????




So in a nutshell what is the solution? We can't go to war, we can't get them fired, we can't hold them accountable. They are entrenched too deep. Do we have to let it all burn down and start over? Do we light the match? There is really no place to run to and how from this calamity. Does this herald the antichrist? I ask again, what can be done?




The answer is very...

SIMPLE!

In short, there is no solution.



This will play out as all tragedies have...

Throughout History.


The outcome is very uncertain, but likely not pleasant for us.




Link Posted: 8/2/2015 10:09:41 PM EDT
[#38]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
The answer is very...

SIMPLE!

In short, there is no solution.



This will play out as all tragedies have...

Throughout History.


The outcome is very uncertain, but likely not pleasant for us.




View Quote

Concur with EXPY37 that the outcome will be unpleasant.  We should have taken the pain in 2008 but delaying (via TARP and QE) will only prolong the suffering.

There is a solution though and Nomi Prins said it in her book, All The Presidents' Bankers. Either we destroy them or they will destroy us.  To me, that means to do as Iceland did.  Jail them (if they didn't already flee to the City of London).  Renounce the debt.  Restore to the Treasury the power to control the money.
Link Posted: 8/2/2015 10:28:02 PM EDT
[#39]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:


The answer is very...

SIMPLE!

In short, there is no solution.



This will play out as all tragedies have...

Throughout History.


The outcome is very uncertain, but likely not pleasant for us.




View Quote


The solution is to be resilient and a resource to your community in hard times.  

its simple; the more of us who can take care of ourselves and our close community the better off we'll all be.  


Link Posted: 8/3/2015 9:59:44 AM EDT
[#40]
Read Studs Terkel's book "Hard Times: an oral history of the great depression"

They bailed out the banks then also.

We were VERY VERY close to straight up communism then, very close. And few actually were vying for it in the society. Imagine now....
Link Posted: 8/3/2015 11:20:06 AM EDT
[#41]
It was either communism or according to Smedley Butler, fascism.  If either resulted, there would have been a totalitarian state.
Link Posted: 8/3/2015 11:30:01 AM EDT
[#42]
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Quoted:
It was either communism or according to Smedley Butler, fascism.  If either resulted, there would have been a totalitarian state.
View Quote


Which flavor of totalitarianism makes little difference to those living under its boot. Should (when) we see a repeat of the 2008 financial crash my biggest fear is the vast uninformed masses welcoming a "strong leader" who promises to make things right if he is just given the power to do so.
Link Posted: 8/3/2015 12:20:02 PM EDT
[#43]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:


Which flavor of totalitarianism makes little difference to those living under its boot. Should (when) we see a repeat of the 2008 financial crash my biggest fear is the vast uninformed masses welcoming a "strong leader" who promises to make things right if he is just given the power to do so.
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Quoted:
It was either communism or according to Smedley Butler, fascism.  If either resulted, there would have been a totalitarian state.


Which flavor of totalitarianism makes little difference to those living under its boot. Should (when) we see a repeat of the 2008 financial crash my biggest fear is the vast uninformed masses welcoming a "strong leader" who promises to make things right if he is just given the power to do so.

You're 100% spot on with respects to totalitarianism.  Your throat/neck doesn't know what type of gubment boot is on it.  As for the masses, you're on the mark there too. Preach it brother!
Link Posted: 8/3/2015 12:47:18 PM EDT
[#44]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
"As I posted above, it does solve the problem of having to refinance the debt with more debt. When the fed 'buys' the debt, they don't need their money back because they created the money to begin with to 'buy' the debt. So that debt will never be redeemed. problem solved because if it is never redeemed, it isn't really debt. "

That is not true. The treasuries that fed buys are just like every other one. At one point they were selling shorter dated debt and buying longer term debt to try and give the treasury some more relief. The debt still matures. The fed at this point has stopped buying more debt but is rolling the debt over as it matures. But they have already stated that the first step to bring down their balance sheet is to start letting the treasuries and freddy/fanny bonds mature and be redeemed. When they will start that is anyones guess. They actually have fanny/freddy paper on their books then treasuries. The interest they make on these and regular bank deposits that they hold is given back to the treasury each year.

The fed is still independent of the government and is run like a bank.  If the treasury could just go out and print money on it's own we would really be screwed.
View Quote


Since they are never audited, we don't know how they are run.

And when the fed rolls over the debt they own they create the money to do it, that is nothing more than smoke and mirrors.
Link Posted: 8/3/2015 12:48:22 PM EDT
[#45]
Discussion ForumsJump to Quoted PostQuote History
Quoted:
Drudge is linking to an article...

"U.S. wage growth brakes in second-quarter; consumer sentiment slips"


So, I ask again, where are the INCOMES coming from to support Hyperinflation????




View Quote


They come from where everything else comes from, the smoke and mirrors.
Link Posted: 8/3/2015 1:53:56 PM EDT
[#46]
Here's an interview by Greg Hunter,Watchdog USA, of Christ Martenson. Martenson discusses the financial situation today and what happened in Iceland (I mentioned it above) and to get out of non-productive debt.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MN4drI2CLEQ#t=2085
Link Posted: 8/3/2015 6:06:55 PM EDT
[#47]
This is all so overwhelming.

Some people just say, screw it, “I’ll grow my own,” and they create a homestead. Some people say, “I’m just going to buy land, that way I’ll have a hard asset when the money goes bad.” Others say, “I’m going to load up on as much debt as possible to profit from this perfect storm.”

The problem is that it isn’t perfect; perfect means static, but trade is dynamic. The conditions need to be right for each of those strategies to work. What if the rules are different? What if trade doesn’t happen the way you are used to? What if your geographic location once again matters?

What if the US is Balkanized because you and your neighbor can’t figure out a way to trade with the guy who drives the food from two states away? What about everyone he had to trade with along the way? Just because an 18-wheeler can physically get food to your door does not mean it will. Same thing with a supertanker from China full of fake rubber dog shit. Not because of violence, but because they screwed up our money.

In an ironic way the worst case scenario is the easiest to plan for.

The good news is that when the world is on fire it burns fast. Peace of mind is possible because the short-term and volatile nature of collapse leaves no way to plan long-term. Who knows which area of the country will be the safest? Have you noticed how relocation is a common undercurrent from true SHTF survivors?

Three or more months of food plus six months of expenses in cash, silver, and gold (separately) gives someone the power, time, and flexibility to pick and move to a greener pasture.
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