Silver now solidly in upper $14's-------- At the moment...

Wonder if due to liquidity issues resulting from so many negative economic variables?

My guess is that somebody got a margin call from the Chinese exchange and had to liquidate a whole lot of something in a hurry. So, selling the gold futures you bought is usually a good way to get cash in a hurry.

I also read a report that the Chinese bought more gold last month than in the previous 6. Wonder what they know that they're trying to keep secret?

Maybe they know how bad they fucked themselves building uninhabited cities and other such spending, and they want gold to have tangible wealth as a hedge to soften a crash?

If the U.S. government isn't hoarding gold we should be.

I checked in and saw it at $14.93-6 this afternoon but they were selling it for $1.19-1.25 or more over spot even when buying 200oz.  They are making way more profit on it mow than when it was $17.95 and you could get it for $0.69-89 over spot.

The Chinese know that the fiat currency systems are dying.  They're dumping paper for tangibles whether it's precious metals, mines, mining rights, agricultural lands, land in cities in America.  One clever thing they've done is deposit some of their US Treasuries back into the US (Wells Fargo).  They then take loans out on their deposits to buy real property.  

As for the amount of gold, the Chinese remain very secretive.  It's easily in excess of the 1,000 plus tons they last acknowledge having.  Minimally they have 4k tons, but I suspect it's much, much more than that.  Per Bloomberg, if the Chinese have over 10k tons, then gold can easily soar to $64k (but then again, that just means the USD ain't worth sh*t).

Still dropping, check chart above...

Death throes.

Along with Gold:

Over the past week, “a number of events and trends have come together to create what looks like a perfect storm for gold,” said Colin Cieszynski, chief market strategist at CMC Markets.

He listed 4 significant influences:

1). Reduced demand for defensive havens

The “risk of an imminent Grexit has passed for now,” and political tensions around the world also appear to be easing with the completion of the Iran deal and the U.S. “reopening diplomatic relations with Cuba,” said Cieszynski.

2). Reduced need for inflation hedges

With Iran preparing to return to the oil market amid a continuing supply war among other producers, the price of oil has tumbled back toward $50 a barrel. That means “headline inflation looks likely to remain subdued for some time,” Cieszynski said.

3). U.S. interest-rate liftoff and U.S. dollar rally

The risk of financial crises in Europe and concerns that China could spiral out of control and disrupt the world economy have eased dramatically, “keeping the Fed on course toward interest-rate liftoff.”

4). China and gold purchases.

China on Friday released data on its gold holdings for the first time since 2009. Gold reserves rose by about 60% from 2009 to 1,658 metric tons, which would have been great for gold, “except that gold only represents about 1.5% of China’s forex reserves and this percentage has not grown in the last six years, crushing hopes China would save the gold market,” said Cieszynski. Read: China finally says how much gold it has, but nobody believes it

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-reason-gold-is-in-the-middle-of-a-perfect-storm-2015-07-20

Silver for September delivery is down by 1.24% to $14.66 per ounce on the COMEX this afternoon.

Silver is back down in the $14's.

Not a good sign for the markets.

Where is a good place to buy bars?

Why would you buy bars, when if you go to liquidate them, many folks would want you to prove their authenticity. That could be difficult if the Buyer isn't a sophisticated dealer, etc.

Why not stick with American Eagles or other highly recognizable silver coins, to save a lot of grief...

If/when you have to sell.


Easily recognizable coins may have a bit of an extra premium, that you will likely get back and be VERY HAPPY you paid it, when you sell, in troubled times.

An old saying comes to mind here, something abt...

"Being Penny-Wise ---And Pound Foolish"

I stock both. Some 100oz bars for bulk storage. Then silver Eagles. Then 1oz silver rounds Indian heads. Split about 50/50(coins/bars). All bases are covered. Did the same with Gold, just on a smaller scale of course. I got all mine back in late 08 early 09.

"All bases are covered."


Not exactly...  

A lot of good info in the Pike's thread, worth checking out.  The consensus in that thread seems to be that generic 1 oz bars/rounds from a reputable source are best.  He (the dealer in the thread) specifically recommends against 100oz+ bars because they are frequently counterfeited.  He also does not recommend paying more for the eagles/other designer coins, most dealers treat them the same as the generics.

+1.... It is a very worthwhile read. I re-oriented my "buy monthly...high or low" purchases towards 1oz and 10oz bars and away, for the most part, from Maple Leafs and ASE's.

Precious metals are just a very small base to be covered. I'd be willing to bet overall, better then 90% here. I cheated tho and had a head start, way before it became fashionable to prep. I was "prepping" (was a big Mel Tappan follower back then) starting around 1980 back when I first started building ARs. I already largely do the subsistence life style isolated here in the SE mtns. If chit ever hits it, I'm staying right here doing what I'm doing.  Right now, that consists of working up/rotating my firewood supply(heat with wood only) and processing my garden veggies.

Silver dipped into the $13's today!!!

Where's all the folks who CLAIMED they were gonna back up the truck???

http://www.alibaba.com/product-detail/Alibaba-American-eagle-one-ounce-replica_60118295673.html?spm=a2700.7724857.35.1.WQFedm

Many PMs are counterfeited, not just 100 oz bars.

Okay, where is a great place to buy coins I have no clue what to look for or buy. I know silver is at 14 something but I know I will not find coins for 14-16.00

This is an e-mail I received today from Texas precious metals, a dealer I use and recommend. Gives some insight to the premium vs supply vs price question.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Dear TexMetals customers:

I am writing to provide you with an update on precious metals inventories. We are presently out of stock on many products. I want to begin by quoting an article I posted on July 8th, 2015:

————

“It is important to understand how and why supply constraints occur during periods of falling prices, and why precious metals premiums consequently spike. Let’s use an extreme example to illustrate the nature of how the physical metals markets move.

a. Let’s assume the spot price of silver is $15 and subsequently falls to $10.
b. Let’s assume the annual average demand for physical silver is $1B.

In this scenario, if the demand in dollar terms remains flat, the manufacturing output would need to increase by 50%. The mint would need to increase minting capacity from 66.67M coins to 100M coins - a huge increase.

Now, if the silver spot price fell by 33% in a condensed time frame, you can be certain that demand would increase precipitously. If we assume demand (in dollar terms) doubles, the mint would need to increase production from 66.67M coins to 200M coins. What if demand triples or quadruples? You get the idea. Over the long term, the US Mint might be able compensate, but certainly not in the short term. No manufacturing operation could. Manufacturing is inelastic with respect to short term scalability.

Then you have the domino effect:

- The US Mint goes on “allocation", limiting supply to authorized purchasers.
- This supply constraint, in the midst of rising demand, forces dealers to raise premiums.
- Rising premiums on US-minted products induces buyers to purchases other sovereign coins, like Canadian Maples, or privately-minted products.
- The increase in demand for these products creates the same manufacturing constraints for these organizations that are affecting the US Mint. - The problem compounds and lead times extend until demand cools, supplies increase, and the coil unwinds.

These reverberations in the market are Economics 101. The physical precious metals market is minuscule relative to all other asset classes, and small shocks can create major supply shortages.”

————

Supply constraints began surfacing in July at the US Mint, and subsequently the Canadian Mint encountered severe manufacturing disruptions which greatly limited supply on gold, silver and platinum. The recent tremors in the stock market and decline in precious metals prices have compounded the problems in the supply chain.

As our loyal customers know, if we don’t have a product in stock, we don’t sell it. Given the recent events in the market and the supply chain, we are out of stock on many products. Please refer to the information below for the most recent information about our supplies:

TEXAS ROUNDS AND BARS: This past week we had an issue with a Brinks delivery which delayed a new shipment of Texas Rounds. We will have 20,000 rounds available beginning next Tuesday 9/01, with 20,000 rounds arriving every Tuesday thereafter. At current demand, it is unlikely that we will maintain deep supplies for the next couple of months. We are expecting a limited shipment of 10 oz Texas bars next Tuesday also. Premiums remain normal on these products, and we are hoping to keep these premiums unaffected by supply constraints.

US MINT: Presently, there are no delays on gold coins, and premiums for gold products remain normal. Silver American Eagles are on allocation, and allocated levels were extremely low this past Monday, 8/24. As of this writing, we presently have 50,000+ Silver Eagles left in stock. We expect further supplies out of next week’s allocation, but the volumes are presently unknown. We are attempting to keep premiums as the lowest in the industry, but they nevertheless remain elevated throughout the supply chain.

ROYAL CANADIAN MINT: Supplies for Gold Canadian Maples remain extremely tight, and premiums have elevated by a couple of dollars. Sales of Silver Canadian Maples, Birds of Prey Series coins, and 100 oz bars are suspended and unlikely to become available until late September at the earliest.

PERTH MINT: Presently, there are no delays on gold coins, and premiums remain normal. Supplies on 1 oz gold bars remain tight, but we do expect limited supplies to arrive by 8/31 at the latest. As of this writing, we presently have 15,000+ Silver Spiders in stock, as well as 25,000+ ozs of ½ oz Sister Cities coins. Premiums on both coins remain normal. We expect the new 2016 Silver Kangaroo to arrive by late September, but we do not yet have a firm date on their arrival.

Supplies for Platinum Platypus remain very limited. We are having difficult keeping any in stock. We are hoping to secure another small lot by early next week, 8/31.

AUSTRIAN MINT: We are expecting a shipment of 10,000 Silver Philharmonics due to arrive on Friday 9/04. The premiums remain normal at the present time. Supplies of Gold Philharmonics are presently constrained.

GENERIC 100 oz BARS: We have an order for 250 100-oz Republic Metals Silver Bars (25,000 ozs) due to arrive September 17th. Barring any unforeseen supply changes, we do not expect to have 100 oz bars in stock prior to then.

I hope this offers you a general overview of our present expectations for supply. Please note, this information may change as the industry reacts to these constraints. We will do our best to keep you posted on the latest developments.

As always, thank you very much for your business and your loyalty.

Sincerely,

Jason Kaspar
CEO, Texas Precious Metals

If you're not buying  - YOU SHOULD.

like these?

http://www.jmbullion.com/on-sale/

As Rich has posted, supplies and availability is going to be tight, for a bit.

The same thing happened abt a year ago when silver had a big drop into the teens.

After a month or so, when folks selling got used to the reality...

And Buyers who said they were going to back up the truck and didn't perform-

Availability once again improved toward normal.


The point is ---Who gives a crap abt paying a bit more premium at these PM price levels...

To ensure you are able to get it into your possession??? If you are anxious to buy.

Just checked apmex for silver eagles, they're asking $20.

Backwardation.

Demand is huge and the market price does not reflect it.  There is no free market.  God Bless the manipulators because it make it more affordable.

$18.55 as I type.

Damn- that's back up the truck pricing...

I am guessing when they go public it is going to be in the 20k range.

AE are one of the hardest currencies to fake and investigated by the SS... Unlike every other investment.

That doesn't stop the Chinese from forging them.   I'm  glad the SS investigates it (they even investigated those tungsten gold covered (fake) Credit Swiss bars).  Unfortunately, the Commie govt in China will do nothing to stop the forgers.

Monst counterfeit gold comes from china, maybe thats why. Its not that hard to tell though, with coins you'll notice that impresions are as clear or clean cut, wegight and size often shows discrepancies as well. If you're into buying gold and silver, know your trade.
FerFAL

Some interesting links:

http://www.coinworld.com/insights/Fake-Proof-silver-American-Eagles-from-China.html#

http://coins.about.com/od/worldcoins/ig/Chinese-Counterfeiting-Ring/

http://www.ngccoin.com/news/viewarticle.aspx?IDArticle=2969

http://www.pcgs.com/News/Pcgs-Implores-Congress-To-Fight-Imports-And-Sales-Of-Counterfeit

http://thefisch.com/shownews/id/1411222857

http://charlestoncoins.com/counterfeit-bullion-a-plague-on-the-market

Some more links:

http://www.coinweek.com/coins/counterfeits/ebay-best-practices-part-ii-counterfeit-coins/

http://www.timesunion.com/local/article/Two-charged-with-selling-fake-coins-5542193.php#photo-6429867

http://coinsblog.ws/2014/02/a-frank-discussion-about-china-and-counterfeits.html#sthash.p4xcBAct.y9BI1kJu.dpbs

Is 4 dollars more than where it's sitting a good deal? I would think it's not. I dont expect the silver to be 14 a oz but 16 seems to be a fair price.

From the coinblog article:

$4 over spot for generic rounds/bars is high but right now there is very high demand so available stock is selling at a premium. Either wait for the supply to come back (hoping spot price does not go up) or shop for the best deal now and pay a bit more over spot price.

Silver dropped almost 50 cents in the past day...

For the silver guys...

A week ago silver was in the $16's IIRC

Last quote on Kitco was in the $14.75 range


Here's a 2015 chart from Kitco...





Here's a long term chart for the hell of it...  Beginning ~1995

Right around 14.75, I might have to pick some up.

I really don't think silver can fall under 15 dollars in the current economic situation. Same with gold under 1000.

Best place to buy junk silver?

Posted Via AR15.Com Mobile

what's that famous saying -- "the market can remain irrational longer than you can stay solvent."

with respect to silver, I just wait for Plattekill or buck19delta to make a prediction -- and then I do the opposite.  

a) http://www.ar15.com/forums/t_10_17/676681__ARCHIVED_THREAD____The_best_way_to_buy_large_amounts_of_silver_gold_without_compromising_your_OPSEC.html&page=5#i11574395

b) http://www.ar15.com/forums/t_1_5/1670086__ARCHIVED_THREAD_____2000_to_invest__Update_on_page_5_3_2_.html&page=1#i49556017

ar-jedi

I've been needing to pick up some more silver, I'm behind on my quota for the year. Looks like in this case, procrastination may help. In the past, it's hurt.

I don't buy the silver rounds or the 100oz. bars. I just don't see the utility in them. I have some Eagles but most of my purchases over the last 3-4 years have been the Canadian Maple Leafs. The silver is higher purity (.9999 vs. .999) and the face value is $5 cdn vs. $1 US for the Eagles. I figure if the manipulators drive the price down, they can't drive it down below $5cdn because otherwise, they'd just use the coin as legal tender and get the full $5.

I'm still buying and will continue buying.

My kids hopefully will thank me. Plus those old silver dollars are about the coolest thing to fondle.

Have you noticed Ag trending broadly and inversely to the market the past 5 years or so?

Actually longer if you consider the market/economic collapse beginning ~2007...

The premium on junk silver is outrageous.  ASEs and Maples are cheaper.

I love the guarantees and predictions from the archived threads.

What would be the best overall vendor to buy silver from, concerning reputation and fair price. (shipped to my door)

I have seen very little rhyme or reason to the gyrations of the spot price of silver over the past decade. Like so many things in the financial world, there seems to be a large herd mentality that gets started, attracts lots of "hot money" in a hurry, then the starters cash out, leaving a bubble'd up market just waiting to crash. Happened with real estate, commodities, gold.silver, REITs, MBSs, CDSs, and virtually every other instrument.

The current paper market is so illiquid, that there are days where the spread from highest to lowest is over 10%. It's interesting to see vertical drops or vertical climbs in the price of a commodity like silver. One would think there would be a general decline due to the lack of industrial demand. Problem is, the producers and end users of silver are NOT the ones driving the price. Supply and demand only works when the only people playing the game are producers and consumers of the product. When you start to "financialize" any market, supply and demand rigor is lost.

They are the best.

The PM crowd is particularly fun to watch, regardless the current market activity.

Price goes down? TIME TO BUY!
Price goes up? TOLD YA SO!

They are emotionally attached to the commodity because it makes them feeeeeel good, and they don't realize that it clouds their judgement and leads to irrational actions.