I may be like 5 steps past the 'probable outcome' but what if it does go that far....

What do you stock up on. Food/water to shelter in place is the clear answer...

Then what? Tyvek suits, booties, gloves, goggles, and masks? Lots of bleach?

Where would you start?

http://www.ar15.com/forums/t_10_17/675776_Is_there_any_way_to_prep_for_viruses_such_as_Ebola_.html

I disagree that this is a dupe.



OP specifically asked about a mutated Ebola virus outbreak.  That suggests that the virus has become airborne, or at least uses a vector other than bodily fluid exchange.



That would make prepping FAR more difficult.

I wasn't really hollerin' dupe, just figured the other thread was probably pertinent too.  But pointing out the difference is probably a good thing.

Masks/respirator. Tyvek suits. Bleach. Lumber, plastic sheeting, pipe/fittings to make a decon area,

You're fucked anyway, probably.

If Ebola gets that bad here, get out your Bible, and study for the final!

This.  It would be a massive casualty event.

 

Thanks for the link, I must have missed it.

I've used tyvek suits painting cars/bikes in the past. Is there a good source/site for them and the related biological ppe? Masks/booties etc? I figure I can use them around the garage if nothing else.

Prepare to lock up/fortify your place of residence with provisions inside that do not require resupply for at least 6 months.

Anything short of that may cause you to have to go out for supplies which would probably reduce your survival rate drastically, even with PPE.

Pandemic virus a threat you cannot taste, touch, hear, feel or see. Your only real defense is self imposed quarantine.

Don't forget your Bible.

Body bags.

so, Zombie outbreaks are a real possibility???



I have to agree with Six..if ANY virus infection strikes in todays global economy with wide open borders with or with out a passport, we could
see an outbreak in our life times that would make Spanish flu look regional and the black plague look like the common cold..
Lock, Load, set up LP and snipers hides and shoot all comers...anyone having to go outside immediately controlled areas would have to be
quarantined for 10 days 2 weeks to insure there was no infection..and prayer after that it's not a 3 week incubation period..

We really ought to put the brakes on the Ebola panic.  Unless you're in a place (Africa) that has no functioning infrastructure, and a bunch of uneducated uncivilized people who believe in ghosts and magic and curses.  In the civilized world where hospitals exist, people understand the concept of isolation, and are generally willing to accept medical care when offered, the mortality rate would be low.

It's not an accident or coincidence that the two Americans infected with Ebola and brought to the US have survived and done Just Fine.


I'm not completely dismissing the possibility of SOME kind of global infectious pandemic happening, ever.  Just Ebola.  Filoviridae aren't built for easy airborne transmission, mutated or not, the way for example the flu is.  Mutation isn't a magical anything-could-happen process.



If, for the sake of discussion, you wanted to conjure some airborne superbug that has both high mortality (despite modern treatment) and a long symptom-free incubation period ... stay home, eat some of that wheat you've got in those buckets, and avoid contact with other people.  If the paperboy comes buy to collect his two dollars, toss eight quarters in the street from a second story window.  If you don't have exact change, and he won't leave without his two dollars, shoot him.  There's not much else to say.

Consider that the mortality rate for the Ebola virus approaches 90%, where the mortality rate for the Spanish Flu was around 20%, and you can see the problems that Ebola would present should it mutate into a highly transmissible form - especially if it maintains its fairly long asymptomatic incubation period.





 

Wait until those modern U.S. hospitals' one or two isolation wards have hundreds of ebola victims.  Hospital staff might continue to come in at first; after that ?

I bolster my existing stock of food, water and gasoline, and head for my BOL.

Consider that the mortality of Ebola isn't 90% when modern medical care is available.  We've had what, two patients brought to the US and both survived?  Sure, N=2 is small, but that's still a 0% mortality.

Hospitals in the continental US getting overwhelmed is unlikely; we have pretty extraordinary medical infrastructure, and a (comparatively) well informed, educated, non-magic-believing population that would mostly cooperate with isolation and quarantine.  Ebola is pretty hard to transmit person-to-person if even the most basic precautions are taken, and again RNA viruses like filoviridae are simply NOT well set up to mutate into a hardier form that can survive in airborne water droplets.


Even that horrible Spanish flu back in the day wouldn't be nearly so bad today.  There was something remarkable and violent going on in 1918 in Europe that interfered with good medical care and isolation.  Furthermore, the great majority of deaths were from bacterial pneumonia complications ... in an era before penicillin.


I'm concerned about Ebola in Africa because it has the potential to kill a lot of human beings and further destabilize a continent that's already a mess.  Beyond the human toll, there's a national security interest for us there.  But I'm not concerned about Ebola coming to the USA, and you shouldn't be either.

There will be no do-overs or curves on the exam....

This. Hunkering down away from everyone is the only option, especially for me. My wife has a compromised immune system.

op wanted to talk about what specific preps to make if something were to come about.

thanks though, im glad nothing bad will ever happen.  im so glad that prepping for unlikely events is a waste of time.

back to infectious disease: i think that good genetics are the only hope for some truly nasty bug short term.  very few people are capable of being mountain men if they werent born into that way of life.  

we are limited by our reliance on culture in such a way that sudden removal of it would be just as bad if not worse than the lights going out.  thats what an epidemic would create, an avoidance of people, of trade, of all the normal daily interactions that increase our odds of survival.  

long term, if the bug doesnt get you some other isolation or looting related event probably will.

Pepper...
for your Angus.
I am scarred to Hell of infectious disease. I really need to conquer my purposeful, willful ignorance of this subject.

Here's my take on the issue:

--There's a large chunk of people here that seem to dismiss ebola as a "don't screw monkeys or eat bats" kind of disease. That downplays the danger and communicability of the virus, in my opinion.

--We are being told that "It's not airborne." Well, that's true. Much in the same way that norovirus isn't "airborne." So how well does norovirus move through a cruise ship? Like wildfire, despite sanitation stations at every meal point. "Airborne" is an interesting characterization with viruses. They don't actually float around through the air like pollen, so that's true. But if someone sneezes or coughs, microdroplets will end up in the air. Ever sneeze in your hand? What does it look like? Try coughing in front of a mirror; what do you see? Humans are filthy animals, so who knows what the dude in front of you on the escalator just wiped on the handrail. Is it instantly dead once it touches another surface? Or can it last a few minutes or hours on that handrail? Touch the rail and scratch your eye, or wipe your nose. Did that transfer a virus into your bloodstream? It doesn't take an open wound, when mucous membranes work just fine for viral transmission.

--"You're not contagious until you're showing symptoms." We've all heard that one. Well, what is "showing symptoms"? Is it running a fever? Coughing? Feeling like you've got the flu? Or is it only bleeding out of your eyes and ass? Take a look at Patrick Sawyer, the Nigerian diplomat. He was "showing symptoms" and decided he wanted to go home. How many people did he infect? 12 at least, with 5 dead now. Do you think the people on the street will go to a hospital if they feel down, have a fever, and perhaps have the flu? Or will they tough it out, go to work, get groceries, and go home.

--"American medicine is different and we can contain any outbreak." Certainly the first few can be quarantined. Even the first 10 or 50. How many hospital beds are there in each city with negative pressure for suspected ebola patients? What happens when there's more than can be contained?

--The tipping point - American hospitals can quarantine and trace X number of suspected cases. After that, what happens? When a nurse gets sick, are her coworkers going to keep showing up each day?

--Panic is the real enemy - Right now, the media is avoiding the issue on the whole. They'll update the official body count from Africa and say who has tested negative for the virus in America. Did you hear about the white guy in Ireland that just died after returning from West Africa and is a suspected ebola case? Or was all the news coverage about the doctor and nurse being released from Emory after being cured? When the issue really hits, and the soccer moms start talking about it, there's going to be another tipping point. Much like the bread and milk disappears from store shelves before a hurricane, there's going to be a major run on food and supplies. These things happen suddenly, and the fear snowballs out of control. One day you can get soup, rice, and beer. The next, it's empty shelves because of just-in-time inventory practices.

--Those that dismiss this as a third world disease that won't hit our shores are doing their families a disservice. Hell, we've got people here that won't mow the lawn without a concealed handgun. Yet, the idea that a virus could scare people into clearing store shelves empty for weeks is "fearmongering." If you don't have a couple of weeks of beans, rice, and water in your house, start thinking about it. It can't hurt, and it just might help your family.

If that's really all you got out of my post, I'm probably not going to succeed in making my point to you with this post either, but I'll try.

Rational "prepping" is based on fact, not imagination and emotion. An Ebola pandemic in the USA is about one step removed from a zombie rage virus pandemic. There are a variety of reasons why it's just not in the realm of likely or unlikely risks, as I began to lay out using actual facts and historic context.

There are a finite number of hours in each day; each of us has finite resources. If one is going to be serious about this preparedness idea, one should allocate those limited resources toward preparing for real risks and real threats, of which there are plenty. This forum is better than most, which is why I read/post here and not elsewhere, but there are still, IMO, too many threads about silly things like armoring pickup trucks, world-stopping EMP attacks, bugging out to the wilderness to live off the land, and the like.


You should also see that I actually DID give an answer to the OP's premise of a serious, high mortality disease outbreak: stay home and avoid contact with other people. There's not much else to do.

Again, Ebola is a risk to Africa because Africa is helpless. We should be concerned and offer help because it sucks when other humans suffer, and because a destabilized Africa is, well, geopolitically undesirable for the USA.

Good preparation for an unknown unnamed infectious pandemic are the same as for any disaster that results in a period of time without rule of law, when contact with strangers is risky: food, water, shelter, security, fitness, community, knowledge, good judgment, will to live and thrive. But that's boring, I guess.

I cannot buy into the argument that the possibility of an Ebola outbreak in America is 'impossible'.   Yet, the same experts tell us that we must send thousands of American troops to Africa, and spend billions of dollars to help out there.  
Africa has been politically unstable for millions of years.  Ebola is not going to change that.   My thought is we just pull back, (like virtually every country in the world0, and let the Africans handle it the best they can.
We have sickness and disease here at home, with many thousands dying every year, and we do little or nothing.  Saying that American expertise should be shipped over to Africa is pie in the sky.  The folks that would be doing that are the same ones running the VA hospitals and that gave us Obamacare.
No, it is not our job to be 'the world's policeman', nor is it our job to be 'the world's Health Organization.

I'm not particularly worried about Ebola per se other than keeping an eye on how many patients are being brought into the country. I guess I am a little more concerned that some shitstain would do a little genetic re-programming to turn H1N1 or some other flu into an Ebola-like virus that was far deadlier and more easily transmitted. Of course, the pair of folks that actually DID that in a lab in Europe got their paper talking about how they did it yanked, and with good reason. Some of our enemies are college-educated, capable people who have a warped sense of propriety (or, more commonly, no human decency at all). So, it is not out of the realm of possibility that one of these gene-splicing turds concocts something in a big college lab that ends up infecting 55,000 coeds and spreads back home to their parents, friends, and neighbors. Think about Spring Break and then tell me how you would deal with 250,000 half-drunk youngsters who have not a care in the world, particularly not with physical contact (which, in fact, is the whole point of college spring break)

IF, Ebola, Ebolas cousin or any other variant scenario or any form of pandemic where to hit too close to home, self isolation would be key as long as provisions would allow you to outlast the last of the contagious in your area.
Plan as best you can accordingly.

I was thinking the same about the similarities with  norovirus. I have family member that came to visit before she knew she was sick with  norovirus and starting getting sick at our house shortly after she arrived. I knew how norovirus spread and did my best to keep clean hands and clean any surfaces that might have virus. I still caught it. Just because it's not airborne doesn't mean it couldn't infect a lot of people here. If it goes airborne, it's probably game over for most of us. Sounds like it has about a 50% kill rate with medical treatment, once the hospitals were overwhelmed and the medical staff infected the kill rate would probably be 90%. Something else to consider. If it is detected in your area, most people will avoid that area including the truck drivers that stock the grocery stores. I've seen how fast they empty in a disaster.  



 

Citation needed...

Excluding the Reston strain (does not affect humans) the highest mortality rate of a single outbreak that had a reasonable sample size of infected patients is 89%. That is the HIGHEST. The majority of the higher mortatility rates all come from the same region of the Congo. It is a VERY remote region with very few resources. For more realistic expections lets use the historical AVERAGE mortality rate for all strains - Reston strain. That mortatlity rate is ~61% including those High mortality areas that have little/no medical care and experienced 80-90% mortality. The current outbreak is running right around 51% with many of those cases still in areas that are severely lacking in medical care.

So lets be honest, in a country with modern medical treatments and an educated populace what mortality rate would you expect? I'm just going to put a swag out there that if it's a minor outbreak and hospitals are not overwhelmed we will see less than 2% mortality. If it's a major outbreak and hospitals are overwhelmed mortality may approach 20% in a worst case scenario... those are just uneducated guesses based on relative mortality rates of similar illnesses compared across the globe: 3rd world countries vs modern civilized countries.

Is this something to keep our eye on and have a few preps for? Absolutely
Is it something we need to be gravely concerned about, worry daily about, or otherwise be in a pre-panic mode? Absolutley not...

meh - ebola scares the shit out of people because of the mortality rate. It's just damn hard to do person to person,, except when you're an african that is bound and determined to get all huggy kissey with the dead. That aint going to be what happens with people in the west, where the reaction will be to get as far away from poor old dead unlce joe because he's got ebola.
Some bug with a 20% kill ratio that is as easy to spread as the common cold will do orders of magnitude more damage.  Will ebola jump to being something easily transmitted, more than likely not. will there be the 20%+ bug, yep, damn sure going to happen, especially as there is more and more people  on the planet, living in crappy conditions. only a matter of time. but not this one. your milage may vary.

Here's a link to a presentation by Dr Mark Kortepeter (Colonel, US Army Medical Corps Director, Infectious Disease Clinical Research Program) regarding viral hemorrhagic fevers (2012).





It's interesting to note that he recommends precautions geared around potential airborne transmission when treating patients with suspected VHF.  This presentation was developed around the same time Canadian scientists observed airborne transmission between pigs and monkeys.  I guess there's a difference between sneeze droplets travelling pretty far versus a more "true" airborne process...I'm not sure how much it matters.





Also note reference to a case involving parasite (tick) bites and VHF.
http://wrair-www.army.mil/Documents/TropMed/Feb-2012/%2819%29%20Kortepeter_Hemorrhagic%20Fevers_February%202012.pdf

 

Here's a link to a WHO document regarding disinfection.



http://www.who.int/csr/resources/publications/ebola/whoemcesr982sec5-6.pdf



It revolves around bleach.  Bleach loses it's effectiveness over time so this is another case where the granular calcium hypochlorate can be handy.



Unfortunately a lot of liquid proof clothing that might stop contaminated splatter and droplets doesn't hold up well to bleach.  If you plan on decontaminating and reusing PPE rather than throwing it away make sure it's something that can handle bleach.
 

I believe it.



Any comments on impermeable, bleach resistant PPE (I realize there are some items where that's impractical but I'm thinking gloves, boots, and possibly suits mainly)?
 

So I assume the outer gloves and boots were decontaminated with bleach (versus other items that were destroyed).  Is that right?
 

Wow...yikes.  OK...fucking hardcore.





ETA: Regarding flimsiness, yeah, I've worn Tyvek before and it's not the toughest stuff in the world.  I have some Tychem too.  Also not very tough.
 

You mean calcium hypochlorite (this is a bleach in solid form).

Just in case someone goes looking.

There is no such thing as hypochlorate--that is a contradiction--perchlorate, chlorate, chlorite, hypochlorite.





 

whats the longest continuous time you would spend jocked up in that stuff?

I was reading an article on Ebola where the author said many Africans he tested showed positive for prior ebola infection but had never shown symptoms. He was speculating some people have a natural immunity to it.

Panic is what will happen if a case is ever discovered here. Even though it isn't airborne, wouldn't it spread like a norovirus?
 

so, with the down grade of NASA maybe they've some surplus astronaut suits on ebay?

Whoops...that's exactly what I meant.  Thank you.





And if someone does go looking...this TKO seems to be one of the better ones I've found:

http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00BGNLVA8/ref=ox_sc_sfl_title_9?ie=UTF8&psc=1&smid=ATVPDKIKX0DER



73& calcium hypochlorIte



You can use that percentage, a measuring device, and a measured volume of water to make your X% bleach solution.



Consider a sealed container...it off-gases.





 

Yes it does.

If left in the original (plastic) packaging, E V E R Y T H I N G capable of rusting or corroding within 5 or 6 feet of it will be get rusted and corroded, even in a dry environment.  It won't happen overnight, but it will happen, guaranteed.

Ebola can be transmitted sexually.

Think about that for a second.

Ok, now, HIV is also sexually transmitted and will eventually kill you and has no cure and we've known how to avoid getting it for 20 years....and yet last year the CDC tested 15,000 men ages 19-25 who had sex with other men positive for HIV.

So they knew the risk factors....but had sex anyway and got HIV.

Suppose some dude from Africa who's a rainbow warrior flees persecution and comes to the West who is in the first week of incubation of the disease and he gets in on with dozens of other Westerners... who, over the course of the next 2 weeks go on to have sex with hundreds of other men.... who are living a lifestyle that encourages multiple partners. It won't take long to jump to the 'straight' population of swingers, sex workers, etc. and suddenly out of the blue we get thousands of people dying all across the country.

The only way to stop something like that would be to declare martial law and lock the country down for 2 weeks..to stop new transmissions. OK to let the truckers and trains roll so long as they're wearing suits and people limit contact. OK for food deliveries to be made etc. people would need to massively change protocol - work from home, or go in on staggered schedules, gloves, masks, etc. to limit exposure etc. but the damage would be done and devastate some populations who are already immuno deficient.

We laugh at Africans for their funeral practices etc. but I'd bet most transmission comes from the close bodily contact of sex, not funeral arrangements.

Has this link been posted yet?

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2014/09/commentary-health-workers-need-optimal-respiratory-protection-ebola

These guys think EBOLA already IS transmitted through the air - which is why the WHO workers are in space suits over there.... it's not enough to have N95 masks and gloves...

Proximity is the key - they suspect this can reach 3 meters (basically a sneeze).

As for panic, they had a guy show up at a hospital in Trinidad who was coughing etc. and claimed to just come in from Africa....and most of the doctors and nurses called in sick rather than show up for their shift.... it turns out he had Malaria.