I was wonderring about this today. It seems that there's 10% chance of one every10 years, and a really bad one every 500 years. Not something I would be awfully worried about given those odds but is anyone doing any specfic preparations for such an event or is it more of rolling it in with other measures taken for blackouts, loss of communications and silimar events?
FerFAL

Dupe?

Solar Scares and EMP Tomfoolery

FerFAL, this is something that I have thought about on multiple occasions and recently have been thinking about again.

One thing I do is subscribe to the IPS mailing list here so that I get emails almost immediately upon any flare (X-Ray) occurring.

Other than that I think that being able to disconnect from the grid (unplug everything, throw main breaker, perhaps pull meter) before the large surges of flow can damage items plugged-in in the house.

I think mostly standard preps are very applicable to a CME event.  If you live in a hot climate then alternative cooling could be critical.  If you live in a cold climate then I think the same holds true for heating.

Another big issue is how to deal with other people (your neighbors, others?).  Do you bug out?  Bug in?  Will you still be employed assuming electricity isn't available for months on end?  Where do you go?

It seemed from the Lloyd's report that there are certain areas that have a higher likliehood of grid collapse and damage that will take substantially longer to bring back online.

Assuming your location is what I remember you moving to it seems that you would be very susceptible.  A lot of that seems to depend on the Extra High Voltage transformers being used.  So maybe in that smaller area they don't use as high a voltage since then transmission distances are shorter?

What about food storage?   Food supply?  Clean water?

The Lloyd's report seems to predict that most damage would be centered in the Northeastern USA (the report is USA centered and doesn't really address the rest of the world).  Even a large disruption there would cause a ripple effect throughout the rest of the US.  Imagine millions of people streaming South and West to find areas that still have power, gas, food, clean water.

I could type on for hours.  It is quite a complicated scenario to feel adequately prepared for.

I think at this point I am still at analysis-paralysis mode about this specific type event (obviously baseline preps are squared away).  Hopefully we will make it past the next peak in 2015 and will have another ~11 years to ponder this.

I look forward to hearing your ideas.

Down on the earth's surface, unlike nuclear EMP, the "geomagnetic storms" produced by solar flares don't have any "E1" or "E2" components to their electromagnetic fields - and thus don't produce any high voltage spikes in electrical conductors.

They only produce very slowly-changing magnetic fields that can induce some VERY low-frequency current flow (i.e., almost DC) in very long conductors (i.e., high-tension lines, gas pipelines, undersea cables and other conductors that are hundreds of miles long).

While this current flow can damage power station generators and substation transformers, the much shorter length of electric utility distribution lines after the substations (i.e., typically just a few miles) doesn't allow much geomagnetic current to be induced in those lines - And the length of the conductors between the pole-mounted distribution transformer and your house is probably less than several hundred feet. So, any electrical equipment plugged into your wall outlets is unlikely to be damaged by any small amount of near-DC current present.

OTOH, it's not uncommon for unusual voltages (i.e., spikes or brownouts)  to momentarily appear at your wall outlets whenever something connected to the grid fails catastrophically. So, unplugging sensitive or critical appliances probably isn't a bad idea, anyway.

IMO, preventing damage during a geomagnetic storm should be much less of a concern than supplying your own AC power for extended periods after the storm.

After living through the multiple hurricanes in our area, it is STINKIN EXPENSIVE to generate your own power!!  It would definitely be a major lifestyle change for a long time.  This is one of those things that I truly hope never occurs in my lifetime.  We had many folks spending a hundred dollars plus a day to run the multiple generators, or 150 horse John Deere tractors to keep the entire house completely powered.  I tend to be much more stingy with my power usage.  Cook on the porch with propane, kero lamps to get around in the house, etc.  However, I did run a 110 window unit to sleep with the EU2000.   That was my splurge, but you have to keep it chained down and really watch things.  I can't imagine knowing it will be years until power returns.  Would really make me contemplate moving.  100 degree summers with 100% humidity are common here.

Doc

You likely have NOTHING to worry abt in this respect...




You likely have some other, far bigger, issues on the not to distant horizon...

Well, you can't toss that one out without giving us your opinion of what it is!!!

Doc

Thanks. A few thougts come to mind. I dont think we'll get a lot of warning, at least not from the government, they might keep the intel to themselves if its too bad to avoid panic.
About what we can do, I see it as a bug in scenario during a power outage with a twist.
The event could be of greater or lesse degree although it sounds to me as if some groups are trying to get some good funding and are trying to make a stronger case for a worse case scenario. I'm not saying it couldnt go down like that, but then again its not crazy to think it could be a moderate even with a period of time without power but not an end of western civilization kind of tihng.
I terms of emergnecy heating I would get a couple good kerosene heaters and enough fuel to last a winter when rationed with care. At the same time i'd look to have a bug out plan locally and abraod, in case its really a worst case scenario nad my best option is leaving and starting over elsewhere.
FerFAL

Good post!  
I keep most of my sensitive gear unplugged when not in-use.  Aside from fridge, freezer TV & DVR box almost everything else stays unplugged.  especially the HF rig

Fortunately, that kind of stupidity tends to be self-remedying...

You're at an advantage if you (1.) recognize what has happened, and (2.) immediately assume that you may have to live without utility power for a long time.

I suspect that even with functional substation transformers in short supply, some areas might still get intermittent utility power. At the substation, it's sometimes possible to switch a transformer between different distribution feeders. So, for example, you could have one transformer feeding power to all the distribution lines that were normally fed by half a dozen other transformers, if you only supplied power to each line for 4 hours per day (which isn't much different from the way people in Bombay or Havana live right now!  )

There are several solar flare events per year, have you noticed?

Sometimes the TX summers make me ponder why anyone ever settled in TX in the days prior to A/C.  The panhandle of Texas has little in the way of trees, so winters must have been equally difficult to survive.  

I think moving would likely be required to live without electricity in many parts of the country, but they way of life would drastically change everywhere.

Actually, places in the heat were scarcely populated prior to A/C (percentage wise compared to northern big cities). Saw a special about it

 

I consider it a low chance event but if it happens and takes out a lot of transformers, it would be the worst case in my opinion. I think we could make it about a month on the generators. Something like that might take power out for over a year though. I've been reading this board for a long time and very few people seemed ready for an outage longer than a year. If you have the funds I'd consider a LP conversion for a small 2k generator and a couple 500 gal tanks. Keep a larger generator just for pumping a well and run the smaller one just long enough each day to have refrigeration. You could go for a long time like that. I'd buy spare generators and any other parts also.


 

Now TJ, it's too early to be making this much sense...

Are our transformers manufactured in the USA?

Some of the big substation transformers are made in Germany (Siemens) or Japan (Hitachi). There are also manufacturers in USA and Canada.

Over the years I've had several items such as computers, UPSs (that supposedly were designed to prevent damage), and a TV get blasted with run-of-the-mill power spikes. Just a few months ago, we had this on-off-on(kinda brown out)-off-on thing happen over a period of 30 seconds or so. Usually it's caused by either a critter suicide at the substation or some idiot driver whacking a feed line pole while texting.

I would imagine that given the level of notice of a solar flare en route, the people monitoring such a thing would have between one hour and a couple of days warning, depending on what and how big the problem was at the source. I was chuckling a bit reading Denninger claiming that it wouldn't be a big deal, they'd just shut down the grid until the storm passed. Uh, no Karl, the grid as a whole isn't like the power strip by your computer. You don't just switch off the whole country's power simultaneously nor is it possible to turn it all back on simultaneously. I was reading that there are some power plants that have to have grid power to begin with in order to start up. That's a reasonable design choice when the grid is normal. When the whole grid is down, not so much. I think I read where even the nuke plants require the grid to be up before they start delivering power (although the internal systems can/do run on generators when necessary for startup and shutdown). All that assumes that the transformers, substations, etc. don't have damage due to the long conductors to begin with.

Unless you happen to live by one of those fracked gas wells such that you can put in a NG line to your generator (or tap into theirs), generating your own power for a year is really going to be prohibitively expensive for most people. Maybe somebody with expertise in grid-tied solar can chime in and say whether those systems would be able to operate during a grid-down scenario. I would think that unless the storm was really, really ridiculously bad, it would likely not damage an off-grid solar setup.

I have enough fuel for my generator for 3 weeks easily without conserving, and could probably stretch that.  Although if power is really out, stores won't have refrigerated food anyway and that is my main use for the generator.

Preparing for a year long power outage would require an investment that would impact my ability to cover things far more likely to happen (taking vacations, kids going to college, me retiring, etc.)  If it goes down, as it is I'll be in better shape than 99% of people in my area.

Most grid-tied systems require the grid to be present, in order for them to operate. Basically, the grid serves as a buffer that provides stability to the solar system (i.e., helps regulate its voltage as the user's power demand varies). Also, you don't want a solar system backfeeding voltage into a dead distribution line that might have linemen repairing it.

Some systems can be "kick started" in the absence of grid power. Naturally, they'll only provide power during bright sunshine hours.

Grid-tied systems with off-the-grid backup tend to be expensive, due to the presence of huge storage batteries, an inverter and battery charger.