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Posted: 12/30/2023 9:16:35 PM EDT
[#1]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Harlikwin: Actual E1 EMP is pretty limited, i.e. "over a city". so unless its some major multi bomb attack the scenario is no one cares. E3 EMP is a bit different but won't really do shit to vehicles or normal electronics lest plugged in, but will damage the grid alot. So rather prep for the 2nd. Here's a good read that talks about various aspects of the different types of EMP and some suggestions on mitigation strategies: CISA EMP Resilience Guidelines |
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Posted: 12/30/2023 9:30:33 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Harlikwin]
[#2]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By planemaker: Here's a good read that talks about various aspects of the different types of EMP and some suggestions on mitigation strategies: CISA EMP Resilience Guidelines Yeah I'm aware, and that paper is actually a good resource, which is as usual people misinterpreting coverage maps. The problem is that people think one single nuke can E1 emp much of anything. Any worthwhile pattern is maybe under 100 miles alt at an effective field density to do anything. E3 is a bit different in the sense a single nuke could drop a pretty good part of the grid due to how it works, and also how the grid works. But again, you'd need a few to drop the whole US. Also those maps a ton of assumptions as to what will couple to the E1. I'd post up a smile diagram, but I honestly don't give enough of a shit to prove people wrong on the interweb again for the nth time with a website whose "site resources" don't let me copy pasta images. |
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Posted: 12/31/2023 6:17:27 PM EDT
[#3]
It seems likely that in an EMP that there will be some level of infrastructure and equipment damage. It could be zero vehicles are affected, seems unlikely that any significant number would be affected across a large area.
I imagine that a CME is a very likely issue (sun just let off an X5.0 x-ray) as we know it will happen, we just don't know when. An EMP attack has some probability. What that is nobody can accurately predict. So perhaps the broader scenario is to plan for widespread infrastructure damage and then plan at different levels of vehicles still operating (from 100% to zero with assumptions for average fuel on board and/or stored). So how to prepare and what to do about it? We can each adjust our actions based on our own internal probability "calculations". Some other things I was thinking about after my long post earlier. Just thinking through possible useful techniques and possibly useful foraging (looting). Silhouettes Mannequins Scare crows Pop-up distractions Grain silos Grain bins Feral hog traps Solar farms Marinas and boats for fuel Stopped train locomotives for diesel Train refueling yards/terminals for diesel Fuel distribution terminals |
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SC, USA
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Posted: 12/31/2023 9:15:15 PM EDT
[#4]
Just an observation about using Standard ER to intercept missiles from a rogue nation. Do these use nuclear warheads? If so, then what about the EMP from a high level "defensive" burst?
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Posted: 12/31/2023 10:06:06 PM EDT
[#5]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Harlikwin: Yeah I'm aware, and that paper is actually a good resource, which is as usual people misinterpreting coverage maps. The problem is that people think one single nuke can E1 emp much of anything. Any worthwhile pattern is maybe under 100 miles alt at an effective field density to do anything. E3 is a bit different in the sense a single nuke could drop a pretty good part of the grid due to how it works, and also how the grid works. But again, you'd need a few to drop the whole US. Also those maps a ton of assumptions as to what will couple to the E1. I'd post up a smile diagram, but I honestly don't give enough of a shit to prove people wrong on the interweb again for the nth time with a website whose "site resources" don't let me copy pasta images. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Harlikwin: Originally Posted By planemaker: Here's a good read that talks about various aspects of the different types of EMP and some suggestions on mitigation strategies: CISA EMP Resilience Guidelines Yeah I'm aware, and that paper is actually a good resource, which is as usual people misinterpreting coverage maps. The problem is that people think one single nuke can E1 emp much of anything. Any worthwhile pattern is maybe under 100 miles alt at an effective field density to do anything. E3 is a bit different in the sense a single nuke could drop a pretty good part of the grid due to how it works, and also how the grid works. But again, you'd need a few to drop the whole US. Also those maps a ton of assumptions as to what will couple to the E1. I'd post up a smile diagram, but I honestly don't give enough of a shit to prove people wrong on the interweb again for the nth time with a website whose "site resources" don't let me copy pasta images. Thing is, the smile diagrams are largely irrelevant since having one or more nukes detonate over the US will likely be the start of WWIII and that will have its own set of commensurate problems. One could also consider the likelihood of such a thing compared to the likelihood of a massive solar storm. I'm not sure I've seen good data on the likelihood of either one. But, one of them means war in addition to having no power and the other is just having no power. BTW, the power went out here locally for a couple of hours. My guess is some imbecile started their New Year's Eve party a little early and clobbered a power pole. Did I mention that taking a shower in the dark is a PITA? Had a nice LED lantern that I used to at least see what I was doing. Luckily, the pitiful little hot water heater here in the apartment I'm in temporarily had enough hot water to not run out during my shower. 
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Posted: 1/1/2024 12:39:24 PM EDT
[#6]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By planemaker: Thing is, the smile diagrams are largely irrelevant since having one or more nukes detonate over the US will likely be the start of WWIII and that will have its own set of commensurate problems. One could also consider the likelihood of such a thing compared to the likelihood of a massive solar storm. I'm not sure I've seen good data on the likelihood of either one. But, one of them means war in addition to having no power and the other is just having no power. BTW, the power went out here locally for a couple of hours. My guess is some imbecile started their New Year's Eve party a little early and clobbered a power pole. Did I mention that taking a shower in the dark is a PITA? Had a nice LED lantern that I used to at least see what I was doing. Luckily, the pitiful little hot water heater here in the apartment I'm in temporarily had enough hot water to not run out during my shower. Ultimately yes, WW3 if you are talking about "wide scale" TEOTWAWKI... But really a "realistic" if you want to call it that scenario might be a single warhead or something from a rouge nation. But that isn't taking down the whole US, at best thats a regional problem that again is likely gonna take down the grid in a region. So thats a wee bit more realistic to prepare for. But I would expect grid repair like that to take weeks or even months even though in theory .gov does have repair parts for that stockpiled. And yeah, having backup light/power/heat/whatever is nice. |
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Posted: 1/1/2024 12:40:28 PM EDT
[#7]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By radioshooter: Just an observation about using Standard ER to intercept missiles from a rogue nation. Do these use nuclear warheads? If so, then what about the EMP from a high level "defensive" burst? AFAIK, those are kinetic intercepts. Shoot the bullet with the bullet kind of stuff. But who knows, you could probably fit a nuke to one, we've been doing that since the 50s. |
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Posted: 1/1/2024 1:12:17 PM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Harlikwin: Ultimately yes, WW3 if you are talking about "wide scale" TEOTWAWKI... But really a "realistic" if you want to call it that scenario might be a single warhead or something from a rouge nation. But that isn't taking down the whole US, at best thats a regional problem that again is likely gonna take down the grid in a region. So thats a wee bit more realistic to prepare for. But I would expect grid repair like that to take weeks or even months even though in theory .gov does have repair parts for that stockpiled. And yeah, having backup light/power/heat/whatever is nice. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Harlikwin: Originally Posted By planemaker: Thing is, the smile diagrams are largely irrelevant since having one or more nukes detonate over the US will likely be the start of WWIII and that will have its own set of commensurate problems. One could also consider the likelihood of such a thing compared to the likelihood of a massive solar storm. I'm not sure I've seen good data on the likelihood of either one. But, one of them means war in addition to having no power and the other is just having no power. BTW, the power went out here locally for a couple of hours. My guess is some imbecile started their New Year's Eve party a little early and clobbered a power pole. Did I mention that taking a shower in the dark is a PITA? Had a nice LED lantern that I used to at least see what I was doing. Luckily, the pitiful little hot water heater here in the apartment I'm in temporarily had enough hot water to not run out during my shower. Ultimately yes, WW3 if you are talking about "wide scale" TEOTWAWKI... But really a "realistic" if you want to call it that scenario might be a single warhead or something from a rouge nation. But that isn't taking down the whole US, at best thats a regional problem that again is likely gonna take down the grid in a region. So thats a wee bit more realistic to prepare for. But I would expect grid repair like that to take weeks or even months even though in theory .gov does have repair parts for that stockpiled. And yeah, having backup light/power/heat/whatever is nice. Disrupting the oil refining capacity on the gulf coast of Texas, via emp, would be a big problem for the entire country. Everybody likes fuel and heat |
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Posted: 1/1/2024 1:35:55 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Harlikwin]
[#9]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Freakinout: Disrupting the oil refining capacity on the gulf coast of Texas, via emp, would be a big problem for the entire country. Everybody likes fuel and heat Yup, you can think of a wide variety of scenarios for a single weapon. The Texas case is interesting since the TX grid AFAIK is mostly independent from the other grids. So TX would be fucked but likely there would be far fewer issues everywhere else. Most of the SHTF scenarios mostly focus on the NE costal region, which has of course crazy high population density. And 1 decently placed EMP would cause a shitload of problems. Because most of the E3 EMP couples to "long" stuff better its gonna fuck transmission lines etc. 
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Posted: 1/3/2024 12:07:52 PM EDT
[#10]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Harlikwin: Yup, you can think of a wide variety of scenarios for a single weapon. The Texas case is interesting since the TX grid AFAIK is mostly independent from the other grids. So TX would be fucked but likely there would be far fewer issues everywhere else. Most of the SHTF scenarios mostly focus on the NE costal region, which has of course crazy high population density. And 1 decently placed EMP would cause a shitload of problems. Because most of the E3 EMP couples to "long" stuff better its gonna fuck transmission lines etc. https://ensia.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Article_RenewableEnergy_inline-920x683.jpg Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Harlikwin: Originally Posted By Freakinout: Disrupting the oil refining capacity on the gulf coast of Texas, via emp, would be a big problem for the entire country. Everybody likes fuel and heat Yup, you can think of a wide variety of scenarios for a single weapon. The Texas case is interesting since the TX grid AFAIK is mostly independent from the other grids. So TX would be fucked but likely there would be far fewer issues everywhere else. Most of the SHTF scenarios mostly focus on the NE costal region, which has of course crazy high population density. And 1 decently placed EMP would cause a shitload of problems. Because most of the E3 EMP couples to "long" stuff better its gonna fuck transmission lines etc. https://ensia.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Article_RenewableEnergy_inline-920x683.jpg Indeed. I was thinking more along the lines of Hurricane Harvey disrupting fuel availability, imagine if all the grid and refineries were fried it would be a big big problem for an extended period of time, effecting ~49% of the countries refined capacity. |
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OH, USA
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Posted: 1/3/2024 3:21:28 PM EDT
[#11]
Interesting posts. I will only add that any one who is able to walk, ride, move, etc. will absolutely do so when they are out of water and food. They will not sit still and conveniently die for you.
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Posted: 1/3/2024 11:47:46 PM EDT
[#12]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By snevid: Interesting posts. I will only add that any one who is able to walk, ride, move, etc. will absolutely do so when they are out of water and food. They will not sit still and conveniently die for you. Perhaps some will. Most will either hold a big protest to demand the .gov *DO SOMETHING*, riot to vent their frustration, or engage in EOTW Syndrome activities. One thing to keep in mind is that there will still be folks that have gas in their cars and can travel at least as far as the gas in their tank can carry them. Of course, they won't be able to get out of the cities with the signal lights not on because the city streets will look like this:  (Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria hit. Traffic was at a complete standstill until somebody finally backed down and that started traffic flowing again. 4-way stop, what's that? )
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MI, USA
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Posted: 1/4/2024 5:33:33 AM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By snevid: Interesting posts. I will only add that any one who is able to walk, ride, move, etc. will absolutely do so when they are out of water and food. They will not sit still and conveniently die for you. For your consideration: The Psychology of Human Desperation, Starving, and Living Without Rule of Law |
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Posted: 1/4/2024 9:06:58 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Paul]
[#14]
The biggest problem with an EMP is what happens afterwords.
The Russians or Chinese aren't going to launch nuclear weapons on the US without something happening afterwords. That something afterwords isn't going to be nice with a certainly approaching 100%. Likely a full exchange of thermonuclear weapons will follow and there will be many hundreds of millions of deaths. I just never understood the Battlefield III scenario where one EMP weapon is launched at the opposite country and the war stops right there. It has been my experience that countries don't passively sit by after being attacked with nuclear weapons. It has also been my experience that an initial attack is followed up by more attacks and an invasion. |
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USA
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Posted: 1/4/2024 11:15:29 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Nick_Adams]
[#15]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By planemaker: Perhaps some will. Most will either hold a big protest to demand the .gov *DO SOMETHING*, riot to vent their frustration, or engage in EOTW Syndrome activities. One thing to keep in mind is that there will still be folks that have gas in their cars and can travel at least as far as the gas in their tank can carry them. Of course, they won't be able to get out of the cities with the signal lights not on because the city streets will look like this. * * * Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By planemaker: Originally Posted By snevid: Interesting posts. I will only add that any one who is able to walk, ride, move, etc. will absolutely do so when they are out of water and food. They will not sit still and conveniently die for you. Perhaps some will. Most will either hold a big protest to demand the .gov *DO SOMETHING*, riot to vent their frustration, or engage in EOTW Syndrome activities. One thing to keep in mind is that there will still be folks that have gas in their cars and can travel at least as far as the gas in their tank can carry them. Of course, they won't be able to get out of the cities with the signal lights not on because the city streets will look like this. * * * No doubt there will be folks who flee, or try to flee, immediately after The Event and create traffic gridlock like the in the pic you posted, but those aren’t the folks you have to worry about. The ones you need to concern yourself with will be the caravan of hungry cold armed thugs heading out of the smoldering cities when all the resources there have be scrounged and exhausted. That will occur well after the initial/first wave of fleeing folks. Figure your A/O would need to be at least TWO full gas tanks away in their path of travel from the urban to the rural. As well, it will obviously benefit you and yours if these thug caravans encounter armed resistance along they way before they reach your area (and maybe by that time they’re moving on foot). Resistance to their attempts to loot stockpiled resources by armed country folks will necessarily result in thinning their numbers. |
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Posted: 1/4/2024 11:15:50 AM EDT
[#16]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Paul: The biggest problem with an EMP is what happens afterwords. The Russians or Chinese aren't going to launch nuclear weapons on the US without something happening afterwords. That something afterwords isn't going to be nice with a certainly approaching 100%. Likely a full exchange of thermonuclear weapons will follow and there will be many hundreds of millions of deaths. I just never understood the Battlefield III scenario where one EMP weapon is launched at the opposite country and the war stops right there. It has been my experience that countries don't passively sit by after being attacked with nuclear weapons. It has also been my experience that an initial attack is followed up by more attacks and an invasion. Bingo was his Name-O!! This. An EMP should be a major trip wire for anyone serious about survival. Mainly for what is written above. Ditto with a nuke going off in anger anywhere in the world. But if there is INTERNET... there will be people posting to Arf and other forums- "What does the "hive" think? Is it really SHTF??" Because group think seems to dominate now and evidently so many "independent minded" types can't think or make decisions for themselves. Going to be a lot of people hung up on needless paralysis by analysis. Which in this case would lead to more than "missing a deal" on something, but could mean death for you and your family. Set your tripwires now for when you are going to put plans into ACTION (a strong word for preppers, they love 'research' and postulation, but ACTION is another story). You shouldn't need the consensus of people you don't know on the net, your drunk buddies or the TP committee to take action. If you don't set your tripwires for action now, you WILL vassilate when the time comes. |
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IN, USA
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Posted: 1/4/2024 12:03:37 PM EDT
[#17]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Paul: It has been my experience that countries don't passively sit by after being attacked with nuclear weapons. It has also been my experience that an initial attack is followed up by more attacks and an invasion.  Uhhhh going by the example of the only use of nuclear weapons, the country that got attacked by them most definatly passively sat there and begged to surrender. of course they did not themselves have nukes to respond with so I agree if a country has the capability and a known target to respond in kind to, then it probable will. |
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TN, USA
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Posted: 1/4/2024 3:36:27 PM EDT
[#18]
imho, solar flare based EMP is far more likely than a nuke attack that is EMP only (as opposed to also trying to nuke cities). for that reason, i think a widespread electrical outage probably won't be followed by an invasion. (at least, not any more of an invasion than we already have. i'm academically curious about whether the power going off would result in mass migration south)
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Posted: 1/4/2024 4:38:35 PM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By taliv: imho, solar flare based EMP is far more likely than a nuke attack that is EMP only (as opposed to also trying to nuke cities). for that reason, i think a widespread electrical outage probably won't be followed by an invasion. (at least, not any more of an invasion than we already have. i'm academically curious about whether the power going off would result in mass migration south) Yes, solar flare emp type effects or massive cyber attack more likely than a large nuclear power using JUST an emp attack against another nuclear power. |
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Posted: 1/4/2024 4:39:44 PM EDT
[#20]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By taliv: imho, solar flare based EMP is far more likely than a nuke attack that is EMP only (as opposed to also trying to nuke cities). for that reason, i think a widespread electrical outage probably won't be followed by an invasion. (at least, not any more of an invasion than we already have. i'm academically curious about whether the power going off would result in mass migration south) I agree and would also be interested. For those of us up north I guess it would depend on how well local communities can band together and make things work. |
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Posted: 1/4/2024 5:35:07 PM EDT
[#21]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Paul: The biggest problem with an EMP is what happens afterwords. The Russians or Chinese aren't going to launch nuclear weapons on the US without something happening afterwords. That something afterwords isn't going to be nice with a certainly approaching 100%. Likely a full exchange of thermonuclear weapons will follow and there will be many hundreds of millions of deaths. I just never understood the Battlefield III scenario where one EMP weapon is launched at the opposite country and the war stops right there. It has been my experience that countries don't passively sit by after being attacked with nuclear weapons. It has also been my experience that an initial attack is followed up by more attacks and an invasion. The EMP thing has always been kind of a canard IMO. Rouge state maybe could do it assuming they could huck a warhead high enough from "somewhere". But an actual nuclear power, nah it would be ww3. |
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Posted: 1/4/2024 5:36:42 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Harlikwin]
[#22]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By taliv: imho, solar flare based EMP is far more likely than a nuke attack that is EMP only (as opposed to also trying to nuke cities). for that reason, i think a widespread electrical outage probably won't be followed by an invasion. (at least, not any more of an invasion than we already have. i'm academically curious about whether the power going off would result in mass migration south) Yeah the Carrington 2.0 scenario is the one to worry about. But the thing is we have no idea how often statistically speaking those occur. And these days grid hardening is a thing to various extents, so maybe it isn't total outages etc. Grid hardening |
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Posted: 1/4/2024 9:22:29 PM EDT
[#23]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By misplayedhand: One would think. For your consideration: The Psychology of Human Desperation, Starving, and Living Without Rule of Law Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By misplayedhand: Originally Posted By snevid: Interesting posts. I will only add that any one who is able to walk, ride, move, etc. will absolutely do so when they are out of water and food. They will not sit still and conveniently die for you. For your consideration: The Psychology of Human Desperation, Starving, and Living Without Rule of Law pretty good book |
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Posted: 1/5/2024 1:53:15 AM EDT
[#24]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Nick_Adams: No doubt there will be folks who flee, or try to flee, immediately after The Event and create traffic gridlock like the in the pic you posted, but those aren’t the folks you have to worry about. The ones you need to concern yourself with will be the caravan of hungry cold armed thugs heading out of the smoldering cities when all the resources there have be scrounged and exhausted. That will occur well after the initial/first wave of fleeing folks. Figure your A/O would need to be at least TWO full gas tanks away in their path of travel from the urban to the rural. As well, it will obviously benefit you and yours if these thug caravans encounter armed resistance along they way before they reach your area (and maybe by that time they’re moving on foot). Resistance to their attempts to loot stockpiled resources by armed country folks will necessarily result in thinning their numbers. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Nick_Adams: Originally Posted By planemaker: Originally Posted By snevid: Interesting posts. I will only add that any one who is able to walk, ride, move, etc. will absolutely do so when they are out of water and food. They will not sit still and conveniently die for you. Perhaps some will. Most will either hold a big protest to demand the .gov *DO SOMETHING*, riot to vent their frustration, or engage in EOTW Syndrome activities. One thing to keep in mind is that there will still be folks that have gas in their cars and can travel at least as far as the gas in their tank can carry them. Of course, they won't be able to get out of the cities with the signal lights not on because the city streets will look like this. * * * No doubt there will be folks who flee, or try to flee, immediately after The Event and create traffic gridlock like the in the pic you posted, but those aren’t the folks you have to worry about. The ones you need to concern yourself with will be the caravan of hungry cold armed thugs heading out of the smoldering cities when all the resources there have be scrounged and exhausted. That will occur well after the initial/first wave of fleeing folks. Figure your A/O would need to be at least TWO full gas tanks away in their path of travel from the urban to the rural. As well, it will obviously benefit you and yours if these thug caravans encounter armed resistance along they way before they reach your area (and maybe by that time they’re moving on foot). Resistance to their attempts to loot stockpiled resources by armed country folks will necessarily result in thinning their numbers. The problem with trying to be two tank fulls of gas away from any major city is that it's nigh on impossible for the vast majority of the country. Think about it. My little Jeep Cherokee can do 400+ miles on the highway. Two tankfuls of gas would be 800 miles. Even in Texas, there's no place that's 800 miles from a city. As for the gridlock, remember that picture I posted wasn't a group of panic-stricken soccer moms trying to escape to the countryside. No panic at all and it was still a cluster. But, your other point is likely valid. The predator class will predate on their existing location before trying to venture out. That, in theory, could provide some time for local defenses to be organized. |
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Posted: 1/5/2024 9:07:06 AM EDT
[#25]
The tank of gas or two idea originated with Tappan and maybe earlier than that (1970s).
Think of the fuel efficiency of the modern car compared to the 1970s. While we shouldn't compromise and take CONVENIENCE over safety when it comes to picking a retreat area, we should try as much as possible to find an area within a few hours at most of our current location. That won't be feasible for everyone depending on where you live. If your retreat is a 12 hour drive to get to, your chances of a last minute BO are pretty much nil. 2-3 hours and an early start, maybe. Also, be closer allows you to make weekend trips to work on your place. We picked a spot near some extended family that was 3 hours from where we lived. I could work till 5pm on Friday, hit the road and be up at a relatives place a few hours later. Then work till Sunday afternoon on my place and head back home. If it had been a full day's drive to get to, I certainly could not have made as many and as frequent trips to work on the place. |
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CO, USA
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Posted: 1/5/2024 4:59:31 PM EDT
[#26]
I think we'd all agree that an EMP from a nuke is not a high probability b/c of the resulting nuclear retaliation against the launching country. There exist, however, Non-Nuclear EMPs that, while not having the same widespread disruptive cabilities of a nuke, can still bring down the power grid. Because of the limited effective range of a NNEMP, more would be needed to attack the power grid. A NNEMP can be delivered by bomb, cruise missile, drone, weather balloon or even by a panel truck. A number of countries, including those hostile to the US have NNEMPs. Russia, in particular, has had them for a long while. If Russia has them, then I'd bet China, North Korea and Iran do, as well - in fact the .gov believes they have them or are developing them. link Then there is this guy, from the same link, "Ukraine’s Yuri Tkasch, Director of the Kharkov Institute of Electromagnetic Research, which was the leading design bureau for the USSR’s NNEMP weapons, is a one-man worldwide proliferator of NNEMP technology to any buyer." The report also goes over a couple of scenarios. One looks at terrorists in a a panel van with a NNEMP traveling around disabling power substations. In their scenario it doesn't take long to really cause massive damage. They extrapolate to 20 trucks and the carnage is exponentially bad.
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Posted: 1/5/2024 6:55:16 PM EDT
[Last Edit: soncorn]
[#27]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Cacinok: link Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Cacinok: link I haven't finished reading this yet. It mentions North Korea used an NNEMP “cannon” purchased from Russia to attack airliners and impose an "electromagnetic blockade" on air traffic to Seoul, South Korea's capitol. I wonder about something like that on a smaller scale that could be used in a grid down situation to disable vehicles carrying "looters" in areas convenient for the defenders and less so for the aggressors. Also against small drones. Another interesting application: Boeing’s Counter-electronics High Power Microwave Advanced Missile Project (CHAMP) cruise missile can be viewed on the internet where CHAMP “navigated a pre- programmed flight plan and emitted bursts of high-powered energy, effectively knocking out the target’s data and electronic subsystems.” Iran has demonstrated sophisticated cruise missiles and drones, using over 20 to make highly precise and coordinated attacks on Saudi Arabia’s oil processing facilities on September 14, 2019.24 Such delivery vehicles could easily be armed with NNEMP warheads, to make a less sophisticated version of CHAMP. Interesting that we haven't seen this (or I haven't seen it) in Ukraine, Israel and/or in the Red Sea. |
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Posted: 1/6/2024 7:38:02 PM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Harlikwin: The EMP thing has always been kind of a canard IMO. Rouge state maybe could do it assuming they could huck a warhead high enough from "somewhere". But an actual nuclear power, nah it would be ww3. A scary scenario that has been discussed quite a bit is a "terrorist" group launching it. Say Iran or North Korea gives a nuclear warhead to a terrorist group under their notional control. They smuggle it and launch it from neutral territory then run and hide. A successful attack would be a detonation of the nuke and the continued mystery of who launched it. The likely suspect nations could just sit back and say we didn't do it and if you attack us, we're already at high alert and we'll respond. Then what? It could be near impossible to say where it came from with certainty. Many would argue against striking a seemingly guilty country without definitive evidence. It's a nightmare for any national security officer who reads Tom Clancy books. |
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NY, USA
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Posted: 1/6/2024 8:42:43 PM EDT
[#29]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By snevid: Just an observation. If you are a fat survivalist, you probably aren't. Check out : Lucifer's Hammer". |
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Posted: 1/6/2024 9:15:30 PM EDT
[#30]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By DouglasQuaid: A scary scenario that has been discussed quite a bit is a "terrorist" group launching it. Say Iran or North Korea gives a nuclear warhead to a terrorist group under their notional control. They smuggle it and launch it from neutral territory then run and hide. A successful attack would be a detonation of the nuke and the continued mystery of who launched it. The likely suspect nations could just sit back and say we didn't do it and if you attack us, we're already at high alert and we'll respond. Then what? It could be near impossible to say where it came from with certainty. Many would argue against striking a seemingly guilty country without definitive evidence. It's a nightmare for any national security officer who reads Tom Clancy books. Not that our government wouldn't lie to us about it... but someone would know. |
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Posted: 1/6/2024 9:26:54 PM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By RR_Broccoli: Given time, the remains of the nuke would have a signature the eggheads could figure out. Not that our government wouldn't lie to us about it... but someone would know. I wondered about that. I wonder if there is a realistic way to make one in secret with signatures that aren't on record. It's not like North Korea or Iran shares their nuclear data with anyone. Or to go in another direction, they could try the same kind of attack with a chemical weapon payload. Those are much easier to produce. Scary stuff to think about. The US has lots of enemies around the world. It's actually amazing that the US has done some well avoiding major terrorist actions *knock on wood*. I guess the CIA probably kills lots of people overseas before they get a chance. |
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Posted: 1/6/2024 9:43:07 PM EDT
[#32]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By DouglasQuaid: I wondered about that. I wonder if there is a realistic way to make one in secret with signatures that aren't on record. It's not like North Korea or Iran shares their nuclear data with anyone. Or to go in another direction, they could try the same kind of attack with a chemical weapon payload. Those are much easier to produce. Scary stuff to think about. The US has lots of enemies around the world. It's actually amazing that the US has done some well avoiding major terrorist actions *knock on wood*. I guess the CIA probably kills lots of people overseas before they get a chance. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By DouglasQuaid: Originally Posted By RR_Broccoli: Given time, the remains of the nuke would have a signature the eggheads could figure out. Not that our government wouldn't lie to us about it... but someone would know. I wondered about that. I wonder if there is a realistic way to make one in secret with signatures that aren't on record. It's not like North Korea or Iran shares their nuclear data with anyone. Or to go in another direction, they could try the same kind of attack with a chemical weapon payload. Those are much easier to produce. Scary stuff to think about. The US has lots of enemies around the world. It's actually amazing that the US has done some well avoiding major terrorist actions *knock on wood*. I guess the CIA probably kills lots of people overseas before they get a chance. I think they could trace the origin of the materials, only so much uranium on earth. At least have a good idea what major player enriched it |
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MI, USA
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Posted: 1/8/2024 4:38:51 AM EDT
[#33]
^2010 article seems to support your assumption. Not sure where the science is today.
I am fairly sure that "closing the barn door after the horse is out" does nothing to impact the rate of "refugees" (or for me personally). |
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OK, USA
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Posted: 1/8/2024 12:15:42 PM EDT
[Last Edit: BuckMan123]
[#34]
The problem with the EMP is no one really is understanding how it works. It's like a basic generator. Magnetic field need to cross a coil to generate electricity. When a atomic bomb, EMP device or huge solar flare sends out electrons that cross a conductor (Powerlines) a electric current is produced. This is a large burst of high frequency/low bandwidth high voltage spike. Not everything is going fail. Military aircraft, ships, submarines and communication are hardened against it. So are civilian aircraft in the from a EMI and lightning protection. Small electronic not connected to the grid will most likely survive as well. The grid is protected too. Remember short wires cannot produce a high voltage spike.
As for those EMP protection kits. To EMP a vehicle is going to cost as much as buying a new car. First the car will need to be completely dissembled and every body part will need bond to each other. 20 milliohms should do it. That requires a milliohm meter. Yes, I did say "Milliohm", the .000020 Ohms. That include the door, hood and truck. Special windows that have wire mess in them will be needed too. Also every wire bundle will need to encased is braided shielding and bonded too. For the wires that cannot be shielded, capacitors and diode will be installed to direct these voltage spikes to ground. Here something to think about too... Ballistic submarine that loose communications for extended periods of time are still fully operational (EMP doesn't work under water) are authorized and may launch... I did 20 years in the Navy working on this stuff and 10 more as a civilian for the Airforce. |
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CO, USA
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Posted: 1/8/2024 1:15:06 PM EDT
[#35]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By soncorn: I haven't finished reading this yet. It mentions I wonder about something like that on a smaller scale that could be used in a grid down situation to disable vehicles carrying "looters" in areas convenient for the defenders and less so for the aggressors. Also against small drones. Another interesting application: Interesting that we haven't seen this (or I haven't seen it) in Ukraine, Israel and/or in the Red Sea. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By soncorn: Originally Posted By Cacinok: link I haven't finished reading this yet. It mentions North Korea used an NNEMP “cannon” purchased from Russia to attack airliners and impose an "electromagnetic blockade" on air traffic to Seoul, South Korea's capitol. I wonder about something like that on a smaller scale that could be used in a grid down situation to disable vehicles carrying "looters" in areas convenient for the defenders and less so for the aggressors. Also against small drones. Another interesting application: Boeing’s Counter-electronics High Power Microwave Advanced Missile Project (CHAMP) cruise missile can be viewed on the internet where CHAMP “navigated a pre- programmed flight plan and emitted bursts of high-powered energy, effectively knocking out the target’s data and electronic subsystems.” Iran has demonstrated sophisticated cruise missiles and drones, using over 20 to make highly precise and coordinated attacks on Saudi Arabia’s oil processing facilities on September 14, 2019.24 Such delivery vehicles could easily be armed with NNEMP warheads, to make a less sophisticated version of CHAMP. Interesting that we haven't seen this (or I haven't seen it) in Ukraine, Israel and/or in the Red Sea. I'd be surprised if it hasn't been used in Ukraine since the guy doing major research on NNEMP is from Ukraine. |
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WI, USA
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Posted: 1/27/2024 3:51:40 PM EDT
[Last Edit: rfb45colt]
[#36]
I haven't read every word of every post, so if someone mentioned what I'm about to post and I missed it, I apologize for being repetitive.
i haven't seen anyone mention time of year (season) and climate conditions that must be considered in certain areas, if grid goes down and people take off for greener pastures. If SHTF in summer, it won't have an effect on movement of pedestrians or any running vehicles in my location (far northern WI, minutes away from the U.P. of MI.). It may be a hot son-of-bitch down south in summer, that most certainly will hinder some movement and sap some motivation. But what about winter? It SHTF, up north in the dead of winter, and snow plows aren't working, the migrating hordes aren't headed in my direction. They're most likely headed away from it. Unless they have snowshoes and cold weather survival skills, we'll find them "froze to trees" like Hatchet Jack. As soon as the first few snows hit after SHTF, we will be isolated as fuck up here in the rural areas in the snowy climates, too far away and too difficult to travel to from the big cities further south. Someone might walk the ~300 miles from Milwaukee or Chicago to get to the U.P. in June or July, but doesn't have a prayer if it's mid January, with feet of snow on the ground, unplowed roads, and below zero every damn night. eta....this year may be a rare exception. Winter has been a "no-show" so far. Last year at this time, snow depth was 2'-3' and it was in single digits for highs, -20 at night. |
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Posted: 1/27/2024 6:54:02 PM EDT
[#37]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By radioshooter: Just an observation about using Standard ER to intercept missiles from a rogue nation. Do these use nuclear warheads? If so, then what about the EMP from a high level "defensive" burst? Probably wrong altitude. There would be some tho. Basically there is a magical altitude where the coupling is the highest with the EM field of the earth to cause it. And EMP also doesn't really scale with yield either so bigger nuke largely doesn't matter. |
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Posted: 1/27/2024 6:56:08 PM EDT
[#38]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By thederrick106: I agree and would also be interested. For those of us up north I guess it would depend on how well local communities can band together and make things work. IDK, it seems like smaller more remote communities already used to working together and at least vaguely knowing everyone would be a bit ahead of the curve in that regard. But the flip side of that being they will be last in line for any sort of aid/relief efforts. |
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TN, USA
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Posted: 1/27/2024 10:49:42 PM EDT
[#39]
There won’t be any aid / relief
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Posted: 1/29/2024 12:52:07 PM EDT
[Last Edit: darkpaladin1]
[#40]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Harlikwin: Probably wrong altitude. There would be some tho. Basically there is a magical altitude where the coupling is the highest with the EM field of the earth to cause it. And EMP also doesn't really scale with yield either so bigger nuke largely doesn't matter. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Harlikwin: Originally Posted By radioshooter: Just an observation about using Standard ER to intercept missiles from a rogue nation. Do these use nuclear warheads? If so, then what about the EMP from a high level "defensive" burst? Probably wrong altitude. There would be some tho. Basically there is a magical altitude where the coupling is the highest with the EM field of the earth to cause it. And EMP also doesn't really scale with yield either so bigger nuke largely doesn't matter. None of our defensive missiles use nuclear warheads. Russia has some, but that becomes a potential problem to them rather than a US homeland issue. Before it comes up, intercepting a nuclear warhead will not cause it to detonate; You may get radiological material but no big EMP or nudet. The only real exception is if the warhead had some form of early detonation mode triggered by proximity, but that is highly unlikely; especially from a rogue nation. |
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Posted: 2/8/2024 12:00:35 AM EDT
[#41]
you are right
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Posted: 2/17/2024 4:35:30 PM EDT
[#42]
Read through this thread and later saw this video which reminded me of this thread.
 How to Survive the First 90 Days After the Collapse |
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