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Posted: 5/6/2024 7:15:51 PM EDT
[#1]
OK, Carrington.
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Posted: 5/6/2024 8:22:14 PM EDT
[#2]
I've got my "beater" HF radio connected right now. Both antenna feedlines pass through polyphasers at the shack entrance and are grounded to an 8 foot rod a few feet away. It's not ideal, but it's the best I could do given my house layout. The electrical service entrance panel is on the other side of the house from the shack entrance, the house is on a slab, and tying the two grounds together properly would require a LOT of ground rods and copper wire.
I've got backup antennas, backup power supplies and backup radios, backup cable and connectors, plus a mobile HF radio. In the event of a flare that takes out anything connected to my antenna, I could be up and running again within the hour, at somewhat reduced gain if the antenna was toast. Perhaps a little longer if the power was out and I had to solder connectors using an inverter and battery. |
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Posted: 5/6/2024 8:41:27 PM EDT
[#3]
All antennas here have Morgan systems lightning arrestors and are tied into my ground grid which currently consists of 15 ground rods all bonded together. Both breaker boxes have surge arrestors. The radio has an antenna switch with a built in gas discharge tube and a ground position. Having successfully survived a lightning strike less than 200' away, if the solar activity get bad enough to take this equipment out, the rest of the world likely has ended.
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Posted: 5/6/2024 9:12:40 PM EDT
[#4]
As a victim of a lightning strike myself, all I can say is that a CME event is the least of your worries.
Quoted: OK, Carrington.  |
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Posted: 5/6/2024 10:33:29 PM EDT
[#5]
Quote HistoryQuoted: OK, Carrington.  |
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Posted: 5/8/2024 4:39:23 PM EDT
[#6]
SFI now at 203 and a lot of M-Class flaring going on, some geomagnetic storms possible around Friday. LINK
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Posted: 5/8/2024 7:17:13 PM EDT
[#7]
The NOAA site is most informative and doesn't pander to the peppers, i.e. not full of doom like many other sites always seem to be so that they can get their clicks.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov The various "dashboard" pages are pretty interesting. |
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Posted: 5/9/2024 4:54:07 AM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryQuoted: OK, Carrington. I see what you did there. 
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Posted: 5/9/2024 11:12:53 AM EDT
[#9]
Well it is shaping up to be interesting.
the X2.2 Flare that erupted early this morning came form a sunspot that rivals the one that produced the carrington event,( if 1859 estimated solar flare sizes are to be believed ) It also apparently was not an impulse flare, it lasted 276 minutes. It also ejected a CME that is going to hit earth, and the 3 previous CMEs have not hit earth yet. This is the first in a train of CMEs, the later ones tend to go faster in the cleared path of the previous ones and the effects tend to compound affects. The first 2 appear to be arriving at the same time. Then the third. No data on the 4th yet from this morning. So the Aurora should be pretty low in latitudes, looks like the mid altlantic states should be able to see it. The CME this morning has the potential to be big, but there is no published data on it yet. Should be out sometime later today. Worse case we get to see some Aurora, best case we get saved from AI bullshit and the mistake that was computers gets a reset and a do over 
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Posted: 5/9/2024 11:31:02 AM EDT
[#10]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Well it is shaping up to be interesting. the X2.2 Flare that erupted early this morning came form a sunspot that rivals the one that produced the carrington event,( if 1859 estimated solar flare sizes are to be believed ) It also apparently was not an impulse flare, it lasted 276 minutes. It also ejected a CME that is going to hit earth, and the 3 previous CMEs have not hit earth yet. This is the first in a train of CMEs, the later ones tend to go faster in the cleared path of the previous ones and the effects tend to compound affects. The first 2 appear to be arriving at the same time. Then the third. No data on the 4th yet from this morning. So the Aurora should be pretty low in latitudes, looks like the mid altlantic states should be able to see it. The CME this morning has the potential to be big, but there is no published data on it yet. Should be out sometime later today. Worse case we get to see some Aurora, best case we get saved from AI bullshit and the mistake that was computers gets a reset and a do over Indeed, I have been following this spot buld up. Not that I want to see a Carrington even, but it is not IF something like that will happen, it is a when. Its happened many times before that event, but it did not impact humans that much. Although I am sure Many Virgins were sacrificed to apease the gods. |
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Posted: 5/9/2024 1:02:42 PM EDT
[#11]
You all are worried about nothing.
The 1989 event followed an X7.3 flare. Remember that X is ten times M, and the numeric value indicates a doubling, i.e. 2 is twice 1, 3 is twice 2, 4 is twice 3, etc. All of these X1's and X2's are baby flares. Hell, there was an X4.5 on 7 May. We are all still here, interwebs, streaming TV and ham radio are all fine  Shit, I'm not even worried about a Carrington event, except for any economic upheaval it might cause. It will not be the end of the world. Rather than reading all of the breathless, doom-saying, prepper-wet-dream articles, take a look at some real science. Yeah, I know, that's no fun! But here's a really good study: https://www.pnnl.gov/main/publications/external/technical_reports/PNNL-21033.pdf Reading that, it seems the Canadian blackout in 1989 was the system doing a pretty good job of protecting itself. Yeah, it wasn't perfect, but no major damage.This Lloyds of London report, https://assets.lloyds.com/assets/pdf-solar-storm-risk-to-the-north-american-electric-grid/1/pdf-Solar-Storm-Risk-to-the-North-American-Electric-Grid.pdf, is a bit dated and also somewhat more pessimistic. But even this terribly conservative organization does not predict a return to the 1800's. Section 6.6 is particularly illuminating, showing how it's the urban concentrations that will suffer the most. Just another good reason not to live in those nasty, liberal-infested places It would be great if a real electric power industry professional could weigh in here about where system protection stands compared to 1989 or when the Lloyds report was written in 2013. |
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Posted: 5/9/2024 2:08:41 PM EDT
[#12]
I have a Hydrogen-Alpha solar scope to look at the sun, but it's overcast here.
Push play on the animation and you can see the solar activity captured via the GONG network observatory at Cerro Tololo. Looks pretty spicy! |
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Posted: 5/9/2024 4:03:23 PM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryQuoted: You all are worried about nothing. The 1989 event followed an X7.3 flare. Remember that X is ten times M, and the numeric value indicates a doubling, i.e. 2 is twice 1, 3 is twice 2, 4 is twice 3, etc. All of these X1's and X2's are baby flares. Hell, there was an X4.5 on 7 May. We are all still here, interwebs, streaming TV and ham radio are all fine Shit, I'm not even worried about a Carrington event, except for any economic upheaval it might cause. It will not be the end of the world. Rather than reading all of the breathless, doom-saying, prepper-wet-dream articles, take a look at some real science. Yeah, I know, that's no fun! But here's a really good study: https://www.pnnl.gov/main/publications/external/technical_reports/PNNL-21033.pdf Reading that, it seems the Canadian blackout in 1989 was the system doing a pretty good job of protecting itself. Yeah, it wasn't perfect, but no major damage.This Lloyds of London report, https://assets.lloyds.com/assets/pdf-solar-storm-risk-to-the-north-american-electric-grid/1/pdf-Solar-Storm-Risk-to-the-North-American-Electric-Grid.pdf, is a bit dated and also somewhat more pessimistic. But even this terribly conservative organization does not predict a return to the 1800's. Section 6.6 is particularly illuminating, showing how it's the urban concentrations that will suffer the most. Just another good reason not to live in those nasty, liberal-infested places It would be great if a real electric power industry professional could weigh in here about where system protection stands compared to 1989 or when the Lloyds report was written in 2013. so are you saying we are going to be stuck with AI none-sense and computers in general? 
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Posted: 5/9/2024 4:21:34 PM EDT
[#14]
Quote HistoryQuoted: so are you saying we are going to be stuck with AI none-sense and computers in general? |
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Posted: 5/9/2024 4:42:13 PM EDT
[#15]
Its arfcom doom is the norm here!
Not really concerned about it. In fact I am kind of excited at the prospect of seeing the Aurora and possibly making some Auroral contacts on 6m and 2m.
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Posted: 5/9/2024 5:23:33 PM EDT
[#16]
The aurora is predicted to be maybe visible in the upper tier of states.
(Italics mine. I'm always skeptical about these predictions.) |
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Posted: 5/9/2024 5:41:16 PM EDT
[#17]
Quote HistoryQuoted: so are you saying we are going to be stuck with AI none-sense and computers in general? The AI bubble seems to be getting ready to burst, same with a lot of the newer hipster techs that have done this lately like cloud and more. |
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Posted: 5/9/2024 6:10:10 PM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryQuoted: so are you saying we are going to be stuck with AI none-sense and computers in general? I'd love to see the end of AI. But computers in general have been a net positive, IMO. In 10 years we may be looking back saying life would be best if technology was frozen at 1/1/2000. No DNA databases of non-criminals, no ability to store and search every single communication. Medical tech "good enough". Email exists. Digital music exists. Computer aided drafting exists. Dumb cell phones exist. We'd have to give up streaming music and movies. And our ham gear would not be as advanced (maybe no great SDRs). Also no cheap nano VNAs either. But I'd give all that up for the much better personal connections where texting hadn't become commonplace and where if you missed your favorite TV show and didn't have a VHS recorder, you just had to read a book or go hang out with friends. |
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Posted: 5/9/2024 7:54:41 PM EDT
[#19]
I just got this inovato computer with HAM Clock and other programs. I'm taking my tests on Saturday.
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Posted: 5/9/2024 11:48:30 PM EDT
[#20]
Quote HistoryQuoted: You all are worried about nothing. The 1989 event followed an X7.3 flare. Remember that X is ten times M, and the numeric value indicates a doubling, i.e. 2 is twice 1, 3 is twice 2, 4 is twice 3, etc. All of these X1's and X2's are baby flares. Hell, there was an X4.5 on 7 May. We are all still here, interwebs, streaming TV and ham radio are all fine Shit, I'm not even worried about a Carrington event, except for any economic upheaval it might cause. It will not be the end of the world. Rather than reading all of the breathless, doom-saying, prepper-wet-dream articles, take a look at some real science. Yeah, I know, that's no fun! But here's a really good study: https://www.pnnl.gov/main/publications/external/technical_reports/PNNL-21033.pdf Reading that, it seems the Canadian blackout in 1989 was the system doing a pretty good job of protecting itself. Yeah, it wasn't perfect, but no major damage.This Lloyds of London report, https://assets.lloyds.com/assets/pdf-solar-storm-risk-to-the-north-american-electric-grid/1/pdf-Solar-Storm-Risk-to-the-North-American-Electric-Grid.pdf, is a bit dated and also somewhat more pessimistic. But even this terribly conservative organization does not predict a return to the 1800's. Section 6.6 is particularly illuminating, showing how it's the urban concentrations that will suffer the most. Just another good reason not to live in those nasty, liberal-infested places It would be great if a real electric power industry professional could weigh in here about where system protection stands compared to 1989 or when the Lloyds report was written in 2013. In this report from CISA from 2019 it mentions the Quebec regional grid down in the following terms: "Both HEMP and space weather disturbances, however, can have a sudden onset and cover large geographic regions. They therefore cause near-simultaneous, correlated, multipoint failures in power system infrastructures, allowing little or no time for meaningful human interventions that are intended within the framework of the N–1 criterion. This is the situation that triggered the collapse of the Hydro Quebec power grid on 13 March 1989, when their system went from normal conditions to a situation where they sustained seven contingencies (i.e., N–7) in an elapsed time of 57 seconds. The province-wide blackout rapidly followed, with a total elapsed time of 92 seconds from normal conditions to a complete collapse of the grid." So, they went from "all good" to "all gone" in basically a minute and a half. It's not clear how much additional protection has been added to various grid systems since 1989. In 2003, there was another regional blackout that was caused by a downed line and a "software bug" in the alarm system that didn't alert anybody there was a problem until the failsafes kicked in. During the Great Texas Deep Freeze of 2021, there were a number of "cascade" failures because power production was dropping offline faster than load could be shed. If I understand correctly, that's a frequency failsafe, not a voltage failsafe that would occur with a solar storm induced problem. But, given that down here it was 94 degrees and 118 heat index today, *if* some segments of the grid get knocked offline, it will be brutal down here. As some folks have said, a solar storm related EMP is a certainty on a long enough timeline. Likely? Not very in any given year. But, the consequences could be quite severe if a major event occurs. |
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Posted: 5/10/2024 6:34:17 AM EDT
[#21]
Quote HistoryQuoted: But, the consequences could be quite severe if a major event occurs. The real questions that remain unanswered: - Are all major utilities protected to at least the level of Hydro-Quebec in 1989? - Will that protection react similarly to an event 10 or 100 times stronger than the 1989 event? If the answer is "Yes" to both, then the fear of major transformer damage leading to protracted, months-long outages is largely misplaced. |
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Posted: 5/10/2024 10:49:13 AM EDT
[#22]
Now they're saying the auroras may be visible as far south as CA and TX. https://solarham.com/
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Posted: 5/10/2024 11:44:32 AM EDT
[#23]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Now they're saying the auroras may be visible as far south as CA and TX. https://solarham.com/ the official forecast is for the Kp Index to get to 8.3 on Saturday between 0600-0900 UTC ., which is a Severe Geomagnetic Storm but very early in the morning US time So yeah, I think the Aurora will likely be visible pretty far south if you get up early before the sun lightens the sky. |
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Posted: 5/10/2024 12:56:31 PM EDT
[#24]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I just got this inovato computer with HAM Clock and other programs. I'm taking my tests on Saturday. https://www.ar15.com/media/mediaFiles/432675/IMG_6292_jpeg-3209887.JPG I use one of those for digital modes in the shack. You really can't use it for youtube or internet, but it's fine for ft8 and js8. |
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Posted: 5/10/2024 3:29:19 PM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryQuoted: You all are worried about nothing. The 1989 event followed an X7.3 flare. Remember that X is ten times M, and the numeric value indicates a doubling, i.e. 2 is twice 1, 3 is twice 2, 4 is twice 3, etc. All of these X1's and X2's are baby flares. Hell, there was an X4.5 on 7 May. We are all still here, interwebs, streaming TV and ham radio are all fine Shit, I'm not even worried about a Carrington event, except for any economic upheaval it might cause. It will not be the end of the world. Rather than reading all of the breathless, doom-saying, prepper-wet-dream articles, take a look at some real science. Yeah, I know, that's no fun! But here's a really good study: https://www.pnnl.gov/main/publications/external/technical_reports/PNNL-21033.pdf Reading that, it seems the Canadian blackout in 1989 was the system doing a pretty good job of protecting itself. Yeah, it wasn't perfect, but no major damage.This Lloyds of London report, https://assets.lloyds.com/assets/pdf-solar-storm-risk-to-the-north-american-electric-grid/1/pdf-Solar-Storm-Risk-to-the-North-American-Electric-Grid.pdf, is a bit dated and also somewhat more pessimistic. But even this terribly conservative organization does not predict a return to the 1800's. Section 6.6 is particularly illuminating, showing how it's the urban concentrations that will suffer the most. Just another good reason not to live in those nasty, liberal-infested places It would be great if a real electric power industry professional could weigh in here about where system protection stands compared to 1989 or when the Lloyds report was written in 2013. You think that a Carrington event resulting in economic upheaval is not concerning from a personal security perspective? You might know science more than you know people. |
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Posted: 5/10/2024 4:45:18 PM EDT
[#26]
Wow.
Kp-index is already at 8, reached at at 1904 UTC, it wasn't supposed to reach 8 until 0200 UTC |
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Posted: 5/10/2024 6:54:48 PM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryQuoted: You think that a Carrington event resulting in economic upheaval is not concerning from a personal security perspective? You might know science more than you know people. Quote HistoryQuoted: You think that a Carrington event resulting in economic upheaval is not concerning from a personal security perspective? You might know science more than you know people. Quoted: Shit, I'm not even worried about a Carrington event, except for any economic upheaval it might cause. It will not be the end of the world. Reading is fundamental, you know. Jumping to conclusions not so much. And many folks would benefit greatly to know a little more science
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Posted: 5/10/2024 6:57:56 PM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Wow. Kp-index is already at 8, reached at at 1904 UTC, it wasn't supposed to reach 8 until 0200 UTC  |
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Posted: 5/10/2024 6:59:48 PM EDT
[#29]
I will be leaving my station on through this for a couple of reasons.
1. I'm curious what radio propagation does throughout the event. 2. To prove a point to the local low information crowd who thinks this will cause electronics to stop working. |
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Posted: 5/10/2024 7:00:57 PM EDT
[#30]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I use one of those for digital modes in the shack. You really can't use it for youtube or internet, but it's fine for ft8 and js8. I am hoping that this can be my dedicated HAM computer. It was so cheap that I figured there wasn't much to lose... |
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Posted: 5/10/2024 7:42:28 PM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryQuoted: And it's blue skies here right now. I know Mother Nature is just teasing. She'll bring in those stupid clouds tonight just to ruin our chances to see an Aurora so far South. But maybe we'll all be lucky in this neck of the woods. Fingers crossed! Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Wow. Kp-index is already at 8, reached at at 1904 UTC, it wasn't supposed to reach 8 until 0200 UTC cloudy here, but I see blue patches to the north We now have a current G-5 Extreme Geomagnetic storm and the big full halo CME isn't supposed to hit until 0600 UTC |
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Posted: 5/10/2024 7:44:39 PM EDT
[#32]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I wrote: So why would you think I'm not worried about economic upheaval? Reading is fundamental, you know. Jumping to conclusions not so much. And many folks would benefit greatly to know a little more science Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: You think that a Carrington event resulting in economic upheaval is not concerning from a personal security perspective? You might know science more than you know people. Quoted: Shit, I'm not even worried about a Carrington event, except for any economic upheaval it might cause. It will not be the end of the world. Reading is fundamental, you know. Jumping to conclusions not so much. And many folks would benefit greatly to know a little more science My reading glasses are strapped on tight. I have been to third world shit holes, Conus Hurricanes, large tornados, floods, etc etc all over the place. A mass event leaving infrastructure down, Carrington event or cyber attack, will create mass human suffering, which I have seen plenty of. |
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Posted: 5/10/2024 8:08:49 PM EDT
[#33]
We are now at G5, Kp index 9
Much worse than forecast and the big full halo cme is not supposed to hit until 0200 Eastern. Australia is getting amazing Aurora, the forecast was and still is no where near Australia. |
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Posted: 5/10/2024 8:18:14 PM EDT
[#34]
Thanks Mach, IDK whether to get up in the middle of the night or wait for tomorrow night.
73, Rob |
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Posted: 5/10/2024 8:19:44 PM EDT
[#35]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Thanks Mach, IDK whether to get up in the middle of the night or wait for tomorrow night. 73, Rob My understanding is not tomorrow night, tonight at 0200 Eastern, |
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Posted: 5/10/2024 8:20:27 PM EDT
[#36]
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Posted: 5/10/2024 9:19:35 PM EDT
[#37]
Cloudy here at the moment but supposed to clear up in a couple of hours.
I worked a station in Brazil a little earlier on 15. On 40, W1AW propagation report was fairly strong and showed the characteristic auroral fluttering. ETA: 40 seems normal now. |
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Posted: 5/10/2024 10:08:20 PM EDT
[#38]
Just worked a station in CT on 40, had to slow to ~8 WPM for him to copy me because of the flutter. It seems to come and go.
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Posted: 5/10/2024 11:08:38 PM EDT
[#39]
Quote HistoryQuoted: And it's blue skies here right now. I know Mother Nature is just teasing. She'll bring in those stupid clouds tonight just to ruin our chances to see an Aurora so far South. But maybe we'll all be lucky in this neck of the woods. Fingers crossed! We are fully overcast right now. But probably not far enough north anyway. |
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Posted: 5/10/2024 11:12:27 PM EDT
[#40]
Everything looks dark... did some 4" exposures on my d7100 and its purple if I have trees in the frame, but just empty sky looks like empty sky.
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Posted: 5/10/2024 11:46:00 PM EDT
[#41]
been overcast for me the entire time :(
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Posted: 5/11/2024 12:00:30 AM EDT
[#42]
 
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Posted: 5/11/2024 12:04:43 AM EDT
[#43]
Quote HistoryQuoted: My understanding is not tomorrow night, tonight at 0200 Eastern, Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Thanks Mach, IDK whether to get up in the middle of the night or wait for tomorrow night. 73, Rob My understanding is not tomorrow night, tonight at 0200 Eastern, We had a really good show about an hour and a half ago. I'll stay up if there will be another one in 2 hours. |
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Posted: 5/11/2024 12:14:47 AM EDT
[#44]
After I stopped looking up because it clouded over, I heard CW on 2m with auroral flutter.
5 el yagi pointed north-ish at 45 degrees elevation. Loud, but didn't even register on the s-meter on the 817 whatever that might mean. I'd never heard auroral flutter before, had to look up youtube videos to confirm that's what it was. Neat!
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Posted: 5/11/2024 12:21:27 AM EDT
[#45]
Quote HistoryQuoted: We had a really good show about an hour and a half ago. I'll stay up if there will be another one in 2 hours. Unfortunatly its cloudy here. Alarm is set for early morning. But there was several big auroral openings on 6 and 2 meters. I worked a bunch of stations. Crazy thing is we had TEP and while beaming south was picking up west coast stations on F2 back scatter. Bit of F2 openings as well. By the time it got really good the KP went to 9 and they faded out. Interesting was working 6m SSB Aurora, stations 30 to 1k miles away or more. Got some recordings. Distorted voice with small busts of clear signals as meteors came in. Some guys reported working Scandinavian stations in AU E’s. Really interesting. Hopefully it keeps it up through tomorrow night. We have 3 more inbound as of about 15 min ago. And we just had an X5.3 flare, could be a very interesting weekend. |
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Posted: 5/11/2024 12:26:53 AM EDT
[#46]
Quote HistoryQuoted: After I stopped looking up because it clouded over, I heard CW on 2m with auroral flutter. 5 el yagi pointed north-ish at 45 degrees elevation. Loud, but didn't even register on the s-meter on the 817 whatever that might mean. I'd never heard auroral flutter before, had to look up youtube videos to confirm that's what it was. Neat!  05/10/2004 Solar Storm 6M SSB Auroral Propogation Recorded in SE VA at 37 degrees longitude. 5el LFA @ 18’ |
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Posted: 5/11/2024 2:47:34 AM EDT
[#47]
Hell. I have all mine in my 40mm can.
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Posted: 5/11/2024 2:47:50 AM EDT
[#48]
Quote HistoryQuoted:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=81nJnRrZ2akRecorded in SE VA at 37 degrees longitude. 5el LFA @ 18'
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Posted: 5/11/2024 4:05:30 AM EDT
[#49]
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Posted: 5/11/2024 6:43:14 AM EDT
[#50]
It remained clear, but no Aurora sighted here
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