24 confirmed cases and 8 deaths now.


I would like to point something out.

That is not a 33% case fatality rate as some have been computing.

None of the confirmed cases have been discharged from the hospital according to Neiman.

Not one confirmed case has recovered. If you take into account all the cases that have matured to an end result of recover or dead, all cases have died.

That is a 100% case fatality rate. All the people that did not die are still in the hospital.

There is still the hope that there are many unreported mild cases, but there is no data to suggest that yet.



There are also deaths of people that lived in nursing homes. IMO those people likely caught it H2H because they lived in a nursing home, assuming they would have little chance of contact with birds, pigs, and raw meat if their nursing homes are like US nursing homes and theydid not contract it from the water supply.



Link

A pig in China is already infected with swine H3N3 when he happens upon a couple of dead pigeons. Pigs being the garbage cans they are, the pig eats the dead pigeons. Unbeknownst to the farmer or the pig (who in rural China may be intellectual equals) the pigeons are infected with avian H7N9. The two viruses co-mingle and through a process known as reassortment they swap DNA and become a novel strain of influenza that possesses the same deadly characteristics of H7N9 plus the ability to jump from pigs to humans as the H3N3 does now. Because this is a novel influenza strain that has never existed before, humans have absolutely no immunity to it.

And that, my friends, is the pandemic flu that could wipe out half of the worlds population...

crap.

That's the paradox of China: it is the perfect breeding ground for potential epidemic diseases, but they also have the ideal society for squashing it early.  The Chinese government has zero compunction about wiping out entire villages, and the media and transportation networks are under tight enough control that they can keep the disease - and, more important to them, information about the disease - from going very far.  I'd lay good money that:

1) What we are seeing are not the first cases, and are only a portion of ALL the cases
2) That the Chinese government knows about all of them, and
3) We will never hear the whole story.

This is a little bit of a sidetrack but it illustrates just how fuked everyone will be if a real pandemic occurs:

While on a trip to the occupied territory of Kalifornia recently, I started feeling a little under the weather. When I say a little, I mean that I could feel something trying to get hold of me. I take a number of natural supplements daily to bolster my immune system and each year half the people around me come down with the flu, while I don't. The worst that happens to me is what I just described. I increased my Intake of supplements and in a day I was fine. My wife, who does not follow my supplement regime came down with a full blown case of the flu three days later. And herein lies the point of my story.

While I was at work my wife dragged herself to not one, but two different emergi-care clinics nearby. The first was a total disaster with my wife waiting 1-1/2 hours without ever seeing a doctor. The second clinic she went to was like a skit from a satirical comedy. The young female doctor told my wife that since she didn't know what my wife had that she was going to prescribe a Z-pack because she might have bronchitis. My wife called me immediately after leaving the clinic to ask me what I thought of the doctors diagnosis and treatment. So, I asked her the following questions:

Q. Did the doctor do a culture to determine whether the infection was viral or bacterial (it's a simple, standard swab test that even a clinic can do).
A. No, she didn't even mention that.
Q. Did she even bother to mention that the FDA had issued a warning about Z-packs (Azithromycin) interfering with electric signals from the brain to the heart resulting in heart failure in patients with certain risk factors?( among them a slow heart rate that my wife does have. Not an adverse health condition unless one uses a Azithromycin).
A. No, she never mentioned that.
Me. So she didn't do the tests to establish a base line before prescribing treatment, then she didn't even know (or apparently care) that her prescription could have caused you to have a myocardial infarction and possibly die from it. So, her solution was to just throw something at the wall and see what stuck, the potentially lethal consequences to you be damned? Did you ask her what Caribbean island shithole she got her medical degree from?

Now why is it that I, a layman in medical terms, knew about the FDA Z-pack warning and this so-called doctor did not? She couldn't do or didn't even know about the simple swap test to identify the infection as bacterial of viral. And here's the really pleasant part of this whole thing; when Obamacare fully kicks in this will be looked back on fondly as "the good old days" of medical care!

BTW: I told my wife NOT to fill the prescription for the Z-Pack. I went into my emergency stores and pulled out a bottle of Sambucus, some Chloroseptic, a bottle of 1000mg Ester-C, some zinc pills, vitamin D3, vitamin E, and Garlique garlic tablets. I had her take Vitamin C up to the point where it caused diarrhea and then back off 1000mgs at a time until it subsided and continue with that dose. The Sambucus I had her take 4-times a day the first two days.

The next day she was out of bed and feeling well enough that she was in the yard trimming bushes for about an hour.

The moral of the story? Everyone needs to educate themselves, to do their own research, store the necessary remedies, and know how to use them. Counting on the MD's to save you from illness will be like counting on FEMA to save you from a disaster...  

Ok, so there is a lot there.



First can you tell me about this "simple standard swab test" which differentiates between a bacterial or viral infection? This could revolutionize the practice of every MD in America. Why did no one teach me about this in med school or residency? How long does it take to get the results back? Is it the typical 2-3 days I currently wait for a bacterial culture? What exactly do you swab? The nose? The maxillary sinuses? The trachea? The right mainstem bronchus? Are you talking about a flu swab? An RGAS? Was strep even in the differential? It doesn't sound like it to me. Did she meet any of the Centor criteria?



So, what is the incidence of arrhythmia from Azithromycin? Have you ever seen it? Why have I not seen it in spite of practicing medicine in an ER or the field for the last 25 years, in spite of the fact that it is one of the most commonly prescribed antibiotics in the United States (actually far and away the most commonly prescribed one in a study in 2009 of Blue Cross patients- over 50% more prescriptions than the second most commonly prescribed, amoxicillin)?



Do you think that the retrospective data mining study of patients in the Tennessee Medicaid database which showed a possible increase of sudden cardiac death with the likelihood of 1 in 20,000 prescriptions is accurate?



Lets say that it is, and this crazy MD prescribes it 5 times a day, 5 days a week, 50 weeks a year for 20 years. How many patients will die from it? ONE Patient, assuming this number from a single study is correct. How many patients will benefit from those 25,000 prescriptions? There is more that plays into this, as I explain below, but if you look at the number needed to treat vs the number needed to harm for azithromycin for suspected bacterial infection the numbers are far and away in her favor.



Can you explain how azithromycin interferes with the signals from the brain to the heart? I have never heard of this. I have heard of a suspected association with prolonged QT, Vtach and Torsades, but have never heard of this interference in the signals from the brain to the heart.



A search of PUBMED reveals a single case report of bradycardia associated with a dose of azithromycin. There is a second case report involving a massive overdose on azithro. A single case after 22 years of being one of the (if not the) most commonly prescribed antibiotic in the nation? This does not sound like a high risk to patients with bradycardia to me.



Can you explain how azithromycin can cause myocardial infarction? I have seen the suggestion that it can cause sudden cardiac death due to arrythmia, but never MI.



What does azithromycin have to do with heart failure? This is another association which I have never heard of.



Do you know how many drugs I use every day have a "black box" warning on them from the FDA? If I avoided meds that had a black box I would have a difficult time practicing at all.



These studies are very popular in the press because of their emotional appeal: "Most commonly prescribed antibiotic causes death! Call your Lawyer!", but you need to be able to interpret the results and see if they are confirmed in other studies. The FDA makes decisions based on politics and lobbying just as much or more than science.  It is amazing how often a study like this appears and gets press AFTER the patent on a med expires and it goes generic.  Couldn't be that the drug companies are trying to push docs away from a generic med into a new patented drug which costs 10x as much, could it?



You are right about not needing the prescription most likely. When you go to an MD for a cold, there is a lot of pressure on them to prescribe an inappropriate antibiotic. You have paid money and waited to see them. You are there asking for something to make you better. Their patient satisfaction and number of complaints likely plays into how they get paid. The easiest thing for them to do is give you what you are asking for- antibiotics. Yes this is wrong, and she should not have done it. There is no evidence that antibiotics are helpful in patients who have bronchitis unless they have underlying lung disease. However, you will find that the more you go the MD, the more medicines you will be prescribed whether they are appropriate or not.



The moral of the story: Don't go to the doc for a cold.



Sorry about the rant/ hijack, but this stuff just drives me nuts.

world war Z

Maybe, but I doubt it.

28 confirmed cases Death toll up to 9  it looks like it is starting to grow exponentially.

Virus is reported by the Chinese to be mutating 8 times faster than other flu.

9 dead


8 times faster

The media wants everyone to worry about crap in China or Asia in particular.  Toss in crap happening in the Middle East.  These distractions help them to help our political retards, particularly the one in the White House  to operate completely unnoticed.

+1,000,000,000,000 to justlearnin's reply to KBL

As a nurse for 23 years with Open heart, trauma, Army flight and other experiences too numerous to mention, I am constantly amazed at the things people say and the reasons provided for taking a certain medicine or not taking it.  Amazing how a bit of reading on the internet replaces years of education in medical or nursing school and experience in actual practice.

Now that's not to say that knowledge and knowing what you're taking is a bad thing.  And health professionals make mistakes, too. But if you believe everything you read, zombies would have started falling out of the sky long ago, the world ended in Y2K and Bill Clinton did not have sex with that woman.

One of my favorite stories was being told that flu shots kill people.  The proof?  Well, "my grandmother died from a flu shot last year.  You see, she was 97 and had lung cancer, and she still smoked and stuff, and she fell down the stairs trying to escape from the bedroom which was on fire after she fell asleep with a cigarette in her hand.  She broke every bone in her body falling down the flight of stairs, and they said she even had a heart attack during all this. Oh, yeah, and this happened just a few hours after she had dialysis.  She had gotten a flu shot 3 months before, and I just KNOW she got the flu from it and that's what started all of this...."

Surely you jest.......

I'm sorry....I, too, don't mean to go off on a tangent.  But realistically.........every medicine a person can take, be it OTC or prescription, has side effects. "OTC" doesn't mean it's benign...have you ever read the warning label for tylenol?  Aspirin? Cold medicine?  All those "natural supplements"  KBL mentioned? Risk vs reward. Certainly there are the occasional unexpected and tragic reactions to medications that make the headlines, and I wouldn't want to be one of those people to make the news.  But for every ONE that makes the news, there are thousands or millions of people helped.

And last, but not least, if you read something on the internet that makes you question the appropriateness of a medication your physician has prescribed, CALL THE DOCTOR (or his office nurse) and voice your concern.  Self medicating (or refusing necessary meds) due to what you read on the internet or what your neighbor said or whatever is taking unnecessary chances.

33 confirmed cases now with reports of mild cases.

It is growing. And the first case was identified on 31 March. 10 days ago.

Mark my words, IMO, this is the beginning of a pandemic.

Think thats bad you should see what they dump in the rivers in India...

The numbers dont support anything of pandemic proportions.  It is not growing exponentially.

Which is why I used the word "beginning""

A pandemic has to start somewhere.

Any updates?

New bird flu well-adapted to infect people.....
"On Friday, China reported five new laboratory-confirmed cases of the H7N9 flu strain, bringing the total to 43. "

"The H7N9 situation is evolving very quickly," said Nancy Cox, director of the Influenza Division at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. "One thing of concern is the pace at which we are seeing the identification of cases."

"On a more reassuring note, investigators have found no evidence that the virus has passed directly from person to person. More than a thousand "close contacts" of the patients are being monitored by Chinese health officials, according to the World Health Organization."

"Cox said it remains unclear whether the severe illnesses are typical of H7N9 infection or simply the tip of a large iceberg in which a large number of mild cases are going unnoticed." "As surveillance has expanded, we're also seeing individuals with milder cases," said Cox. "We're still seeing very severe disease in some cases, but overall I think it's somewhat reassuring."

"I wouldn't say a pandemic is more likely than it was a year ago," Fouchier said. "The only thing we can do as virologists right now is to point out the interesting characteristics of the virus, try to get to the bottom of this story and try to stop further infections."


Japan Gov't gives itself new anti-flu powers......

Drudge is saying 11 deaths now.

Posted Via AR15.Com Mobile

Out of a billion people?  More people die from ingrown toenails, this thread is for the birds...

Go to a Chinese restaurant and pay attention to the level of hygiene practiced by the staff. It will be appalling.

Yes, but they still practice survival of the fittest.  

Here we keep everyone alive, so as a population, we are not nearly as tough and resilient as we were 100 years ago, hell even fifty years ago.

...

They piss and shit in their drinking water man!!!   Plus, they are the largest exporters in the world.  Of course it's gonna start there!!

First human H7N9 bird flu case in Beijing confirmed

Agence France-PresseApril 13, 2013 00:00

A seven-year-old girl was confirmed as Beijing's first human case of H7N9 bird flu on Saturday, local authorities said, as China's outbreak of the disease spread to the capital.

The girl, whose parents are poultry traders, was in a stable condition in hospital, the Beijing health bureau said. Her mother and father had been quarantined for observation but had shown no symptoms so far, it added.

She developed a fever, sore throat and headache on Thursday, it said, and her parents took her to hospital. Samples from her tested positive H7N9 the following day, and the national disease control centre confirmed the results on Saturday.

Chinese officials announced nearly two weeks ago that they had found the H7N9 strain in humans for the first time, and the girl brought the number of confirmed infections in the outbreak to 44, 11 of whom have died.

All previous cases had been confined to eastern China.

Experts fear the prospect of such viruses mutating into a form easily transmissible between humans has the potential to trigger a pandemic.

But the World Health Organization (WHO) said this week that there was as yet no evidence of human-to-human transmission of H7N9.

Health authorities in China say they do not know exactly how the virus is spreading, but it is believed to be crossing to humans from birds, triggering mass poultry culls in several cities.

The United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization (FA0) has said H7N9 shows "affinity" to humans while causing "very mild or no disease" in infected poultry, making finding the source of transmission more difficult.

The statement from the Beijing health bureau did not say whether the girl or her family members had recently travelled to any of the areas where H7N9 infections have been identified.

But Cheng Jun, vice-director of Ditan hospital, where the girl was being treated, told state broadcaster CCTV: "Ever since the outbreak started in Shanghai we have been making preparations."

Beijing, which has a population of more than 20 million, has already banned live poultry trading and pigeon releases, the health bureau said.

Authorities have also ordered stepped-up surveillance of wild birds in the city and people at risk of infection, such as poultry farmers, transporters and vendors, it added.

Shanghai has had 20 confirmed cases so far and was the first to halt trading in live poultry and cull birds last week, followed by other cities in eastern China.

US fast food giant KFC, already hit by an earlier scandal in China over antibiotics in chicken, saw March sales in the country plunge 16 percent, with parent Yum! Brands saying bird flu publicity had "a significant, negative impact".

In 2003 Beijing was accused of trying to cover up the outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, which went on to kill about 800 people globally.

But it has been praised for transparency over H7N9, with the WHO saying it was pleased with the level of information sharing and US scientists congratulating it for "the apparent speed with which the H7N9 virus was identified" in a New England Journal of Medicine article.

China has said it expects to have a vaccine ready in seven months but in the article the US experts said developing one could take "many months".

slb/pdh
http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/afp/130413/first-human-h7n9-bird-flu-case-beijing-confirmed

Urgent Warning On New Bird Flu H7N9: Could Pose Global Threat

4/12/2013 @ 6:30PM

As new death reports come in, a team of experts from China published a scary report yesterday in the New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM) suggesting that the new H7N9 avian flu virus is even more deadly than previously believed.

The conclusions: H7N9 causes unusually severe respiratory infection, sepsis and brain damage, and appears to be resistant to vaccination and treatment.

But here’s where it gets really worrisome. In a commentary on “global concerns” pertaining to H7N9, also in the NEJM, influenza experts Timothy Uyeki, MD and Nancy Cox discuss the potential of H7H9 to cause a pandemic (a fast-moving global epidemic) and warn that this possibility is real.

Given the severity and speed with which H7N9 is infecting and killing people, Uyeki and Cox write, “It is possible that these severely ill patients represent the tip of the iceberg and that there are many more as-yet-undetected mild and asymptomatic infections.”

With today’s toll now at 11 deaths and 43 people infected, the threat is getting real.

Previously, concerns about H7N9 centered primarily around whether the virus was capable of human-to-human transmission. Because cases were limited to one area of China and because this type of avian flu appeared to be transmitted solely from bird to human, experts were telling us not to worry, that it should be possible to contain.

However, as early as last week, the CDC warned about the possibility of the virus continuing to mutate in ways that could make it more and more dangerous.

What the Researchers Found

In an analysis of the virological data and circumstances surrounding the first three fatalities, a large team of Chinese researchers found that the patients became ill quickly, developed very severe pneumonia and upper respiratory distress, and their condition deteriorated very quickly with sepsis and failure of multiple organs. Particularly worrying is that two of the three developed encephalopathy, or infection of the membrane surrounding the brain.

Some of the background information in the report also offers reason for concern. Yes, all three of the victims had previously existing health conditions; one had COPD, and two had hepatitis B. One was obese. But while one patient was 87, the other two were only 27 and 35. And while two of the three had had contact with poultry in the weeks before falling ill (one was a butcher, the other had been in a poultry shop), one had no record of contact with birds.

Why Experts Are So Worried

The NEJM report contained extensive data and analysis of the genetic sequence of H7N9 and the history of development of H7 viruses. Here are just a few of the conclusions that might make your hair stand on end:

1. Infected chickens and other birds don’t show symptoms. The H7N9 virus will infect chickens with asymptomatic illness, so that it spreads widely through poultry flocks without farmers’ knowledge. Quote: “H7N9 viruses are a low-pathogenic avian influenza A virus and that infection of wild birds and domestic poultry would therefore result in asymptomatic or mild avian disease, potentially leading to a “silent” widespread epizootic in China and neighboring countries.”

2. The H7N9 spreads more easily to people than similar viruses. Quote: “The gene sequences also indicate that these viruses may be better adapted than other avian influenza viruses to infecting mammals.”

3. Vaccines developed for other H7 viruses aren’t effective. Clinical trials so far have shown that vaccines developed against other H7 strains of influenza are showing extremely limited response against H7N9.

4. Existing flu tests in the U.S. won’t detect the H7N9 virus. Quote: “Since available diagnostic assays used in clinical care (e.g., rapid influenza diagnostic tests) may lack sensitivity to identify H7N9 virus and since existing molecular assays will identify H7N9 virus as a nonsubtypeable influenza A virus, critical public health issue is the rapid development, validation, and deployment of molecular diagnostic assays that can specifically detect H7N9 viral RNA.”

Reassuringly, the researchers go on to say that such a test has already been developed in China and is hopefully on the way here.

5. No Vaccine for months. While news reports have optimistically touted efforts to create a vaccine against H7N9, Cox and Uyeki warn that this will take many months to do. Chinese officials announced yesterday they expect to have a vaccine ready in 7 months.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/melaniehaiken/2013/04/12/new-bird-flu-danger-worse-than-believed-says-urgent-report/

Nope, it's just the news flavor of the day or week.  Remember West Nile and the sharks and...

Well...

I ain't LIKELY to be one of the first folks taking a new vaccine for H7N9 or anything else.

Unless folks are dropping ded all around me.

Or they put a gun to my head to take my $$.

All that stuff, severe stmptoms, organ failures, etc is all standard stuff for a flu virus that has never been in people before. They make  it sound like it is surprising.

People are not catching it from birds. The birds have different sequences. There is likely a common carrier that the birds and people are getting it from or it is H2H and the birds are getting it from people.

IMO, this is not another H5N1, ths is the beginning of a pandemic.

I didn't click on all of the links. I did read every post in this thread.
I would like a more detailed explanation of your post, and how you came to form these opinions.
A polite request on my part, not throwing mud at you.  

I work for 3M.  Last night I received the following email from corporate headquarters regarding H7N9.


From:        3M Corporate Occupational Medicine
To:        
Date:        04/12/2013 10:29 AM
Subject:        Influenza A (H7N9) Update
Sent by:        3M Communique

Influenza A (H7N9) Update:

The World Health Organization (WHO) first reported three human infections with a new influenza A (H7N9) virus in China on April 1, 2013.  At this time, no cases of H7N9 have been detected outside of China and no reported cases of it spreading from person-to-person have been identified.

This new H7N9 virus is an avian (bird) influenza (flu) virus. Human infections with avian influenza are rare but have occurred in the past, most commonly after exposure to infected birds. However, this is the first time that this bird flu subtype (H7N9) has been found in people.

While there are no travel restrictions to China, we do encourage the following health and safety precautions when traveling to China:

·        Do not touch birds, pigs, or other animals, and avoid live birds and other markets with live animals.

·        Eat food that is properly handled and thoroughly cooked eggs, meat, poultry and game birds.

·        Practice respiratory and hand hygiene.

We are monitoring the situation very closely and will keep you apprised of any changes.  Attached for your reference are some answers to frequently asked questions.

Here is attachment quoted:

Frequently Asked Questions:

What is influenza A( H7N9)?
Influenza A H7 viruses are a group of influenza viruses that normally circulate among birds. Some H7 viruses have occasionally been found to infect humans. H7N9 virus is a novel or new virus.  No human infections with H7N9 viruses have been reported until recent reports from China.
When was avian influenza H7N9 first reported?
On April 1, 2013, the World Health Organization (WHO) first reported 3 human infections with a new influenza A (H7N9) virus in China. Additional cases have since been reported. At this time, no cases of H7N9 outside of China have been reported.  No person-to-person transmission has been reported.
What are the main symptoms of human infection with influenza A(H7N9) virus?
Symptoms include fever, cough and shortness of breath. Most individuals with this infection have had severe pneumonia. Some cases have resulted in death.
Is there treatment for influenza AH7N9)?
Anti-viral treatments with oseltamivir or inhaled zanamivir are effective.  Anti-viral treatment is most effective when started as soon has flu symptoms begin.  
Why is this virus infecting humans now?
At this time, the source of exposure for these human infections is unknown. Analysis of the genes of these viruses suggests that although they have evolved from avian (bird) viruses, they show signs of adaption to growth in mammalian species.
How did people become infected with the influenza A(H7N9) virus?
Some of the confirmed cases had contact with animals or with an animal environment. The virus has been found in a pigeon in a Shanghai market. It is not yet known how persons became infected. The possibility of animal-to-human transmission and the possibility of person-to-person transmission are being investigated.  
How can infection with influenza A(H7N9) virus be prevented?
Although both the source of infection and the mode of transmission are uncertain, hand, respiratory hygiene and food safety precautions should be used.

● Wash your hands often.
● If soap and water aren’t available, clean your hands with hand sanitizer containing at least 60% alcohol.
● Don’t touch your eyes, nose, or mouth. If you need to touch your face, make sure your hands are clean.
●Cover your mouth and nose with a tissue or your sleeve (not your hands) when coughing or sneezing.
●Try to avoid close contact, such as kissing, hugging or sharing eating utensils or cups, with people who are sick.
Are there travel restrictions to China?
No, there are no travel restrictions to China.  The following health and safety precautions should be used when traveling to China.
●Do not touch birds, pigs, or other animals, and avoid live birds and other markets with live animals.
●Eat food that is properly handled and thoroughly cooked eggs, meat, poultry and game birds.
● Do not eat or drink dishes that include blood from any animal.
● Do not eat food from street vendors.
●Practice respiratory and hand hygiene.
Is there a vaccine for influenza A(H7N9)?
There is no vaccine available for influenza A(H7N9).


Is there a pandemic threat at this time?
There is no pandemic threat at this time. A potential pandemic could occur if the H7N9 virus mutated and easily and sustainably spread from person-to-person.  Public health experts are closely monitoring for changes in the virus that could result in person-to person spread.






Hope that helps guys.  3M does huge business in China.  My department makes sanding disks and belts used by Apple to polish case and glass.

Fair summary, thanks.

Beijing reports first confirmed case.

For the blue. Just saw I had a typo. Did not mean flu vaccine, meant flu virus. Sorry for the confusion.

I have done a fair amount of research on flu since 2005 due to H5N1.

Studies have researched the 1918 pandemic and the 1957, 1968 and I think the 1976, don't quote me on the last date. Then there was he 2009.

It is well established in the medical community how a novel ( meaning no human immunity ) influenza virus affects the body.

Here is a brief synopsis of what I have learned as a ay person,

People have some immunity to seasonal flu because they have been exposed to it before. Due to at least a partial immunity, it takes a large amount of viral load on the body to produce enough replication fast enough for the immune system to get behind killing it and cause sickness. If the viral load is small ( how much virus gets into the body) the immune system can combat it faster than it can reproduce and the body kills it off. During the summer months due to dryness, warmer temps, and UV, the flu virus gets killed off in the environment relatively quickly on door knobs, and money and other objects.  In the winter, flu virus stays viable in the environment much longer in greater numbers producing a larger viral load to the body and some people get sick. This is largely why there is a flu season.

With  a brand new flu virus, the immune system has never been exposed to it, they call this novel. There is no partial immunity. A very small amount of virus introduced into the body will cause sickness in a lot of people because it takes 3-4 weeks for the immune system to figure out how to kill it. In that 3-4 weeks the novel flu replicates unchallenged. This is why one of the hall marks of a novel flu virus is that it continues to make people sick in the spring summer and fall. Even though the environment kills it off, the amount needed to make someone sick is very small, and that amount stays viable in the environment even in summer.

A replicating unabated flu virus in the body attacks all the major organs and the body responds with what is called a cytokines storm. The immune systems throws everything it has at it, even though what it has does not kill the virus yet. All these white blood cels that the body throws at the virus accumulate in the organs and plugs them up helping to cause organ failure. It is sort of like a broken arrow. Shoot on my position and hope for the best.

This is what makes a novel flu virus so deadly.

It replicates unabated for 3-4 weeks  while the immune system tries to unlock the code to kill it.
Flu replicates very very fast
In that time it attacks the organs and causes organ failure including lungs
By the time the body figures out how to combat it, it is too late. Death.
Anti- virals may or may not work depending if the strain has acquired the genes from another flu or mutated to get the genes that make it resistant to the anti-viral meds. Anti-viral meds do not kill the virus, they just slow the replication to give the immune system time to unlock the code.
Secondary bacterial infection of the lungs is common and causes more death due to the immune system depletion fighting the virus and the sorry state the lungs get into.
There are only 2 treatments available. Vents ( breathing machines to try and keep the patient alive waiting for the immune system to learn how to kill it) and anti-virals  that slow the replication giving time for the immune system to get up to speed. Then there are anti-biotics to kill the bacterial infection ( pneumonia ) that will develope. It is a time game.
Most hospitals only have less than a dozen vents. Once the pandemic happens and is wide spread, most people will not have the needed medical care and death will be quick.
An influenza virus mutates over a million times in each host. Meaning each bird, pig or person that is infected. The mutations are Darwin's theory in action. About 10,000pf those mutations are able to replicate in the host. The ones that can replicate do and some make it more adaptated to the host meaning it spreads easier and kills more.

All this is what makes a novel influenza virus so deadly and scary, and predictable.

Hence my post. All this info has been known for a while and is expected. I hope I answered your questions, realize I am not a doctor or biologist and this is just a laymans understanding. It may not be entiirely correct.

I just saw I had a typo. Did not mean flu vaccine, meant flu virus.

Now for the green.

Neiman has talked about that. The genes of the H7N9 in local birds is not the same ones as the H7N9 in the people causing illness and death.Flu acquired from local birds will still have the gene markers in it. This has been shown in previous avian flu like H5N1. This flu does not have the same marker genes showing avian adaptation that would be expected if the virus just made the jump from birds in the market or local area to people. It suggests a much greater time fame with viral evolution away from birds.

Could be the dead pigs that floated Dow the river, but that does not explain the other locations outside the city.  Well adapted flu usually needs another  host to make the jump to a human adapted virus and this appears to be well adapted. Many times it is pigs because of the similar immune and organ system compared to people. Sometimes it does go from birds directly to people but requires an amount of time to adapt to people. This virus based on the number of cases in such a short period of time and the multiple locations suggest a common carrier other than birds, or that the virus has been in the human population longer that just a few weeks.

This is all speculation based on the viral evidence and past studies with flu. It has been noted that this flu is mutating 8 times faster than any flu they have seen before, so maybe that is throwing some of the assumptions off.



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Taiwan suspects 42 H7N9 infection. 2 of those people had travelled to China.

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Another board member from a different board had her doctor tell her that H7N9 infections are in people in South Korea.

Can anybody add to this? Any doctors here being advised by CDC of such a thing?

Can we get this stickied?

This situation looks like it  is getting serious and this would be a good thread for people to get vital information as this situation develops.

Sticky please as this needs to be watched.

strange so many have it as they claims it is only tranmisable from bird to human...

I agree and wonder... makes ya think.  

Anything cheap and specific we can/should stock up on to help us in the future should a pandemic occur?

Birdshot  

Basic health related items,hand sanitizers, maybe some masks if it gets bad.  soap goes a long way.

Got plenty of that... infact that is all you can find on the shelves!

Depends. In a widespread pandemic expect the supply chain to break down due to many sick drivers and supply chain people. If enough people are sick, power instructions. Storm destruction will last much longer before services are restored due to lack of people at work. Banks could close, shelves bare.

Think of 15 - 75 % of people sick or caring for sick family for a while all not going to work . Imagine what would break down

What's a decent mask just in case? An amazon link would be most helpful...

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I have a bunch of 3M masks I bought at 3M company store.  Not blue green medical but still N95 series.  

3M N95 masks

Is any n95 sufficient?

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I am not an expert but had chemical bio warfare training in military.  N95 got to be better than nothing or handkerchief.

The hospital I was working at when the swine flu was everywhere was passing out all types and brands of N95s to employees.  They were scraping together masks from any supplier they could find.

I like Mach have been following pandemic flu threats for years.

Here are the mask I stocked up on N-95 with exhalation valve. If you have to wear a mask for long periods the valve helps, a wet mask is not good. Moldex brands have a small size for kids that works well.

I hope this is not really happening, from the table top exercises I have done it would be really bad for us. As a Firefighter/EMR I would have many exposure points, but then again I work in a hospital so, I hope it burns it's self out.

Jumping in over here for discussion with less shenanigans and Matt Damon references.
(I started the GD thread about the flu before I was made aware of this one).

Girlfriend and I just spent the last 30-45 minutes reading articles about this strain. There are tons of articles that have hit the wires in the last 24 hours about this. It seems to be picking up steam and the media is taking notice.

I have a feeling this is going to be all over the news cycle monday morning. Taking this as a sign to check my preps and do some groundwork type planing on what to do if/when this makes it here.