Watch this:



Then watch this:

https://www.uraniuminsider.com/SNEAK-PEAK-November-Members-Only-Webinar


Uranium Markets BPI December 15, 2023
Broker Price Index: $87 (+$1) Uranium spot price is 87 dollars a pound. Eighty seven dollars a pound.
Spot Bid: $86
Spot Offer: $88

This chart is the price of uranium:



This is a ratio chart of URA and uranium miner ETF and the price of uranium. What you are seeing is the miners have yet to catch up to the metal. It is still early and there is lots of room for the price of the uranium equities to rise.



This is a direct comparison of the spot price versus the ETF. You can see the divergence clearly here. Even though the mining equities have risen in price, they have yet to catch up with the spot price of uranium itself. Lots of room here still to make money.







What I'm basically trying to say is that short of a repeat of Chernobyl or Fukushima the price of uranium is going to go much higher and for much longer. The uranium equities will follow. There isn't enough uranium supply for the next few years to supply present demand even if we didn't just ban Russian imports or the world didn't start a single new reactor going forward. It's going to take at least a few years to get new supply online.

It's still early days my friends.

This is not investment advice, it's purely informational.




URA, URNM, URNJ are uranium ETFs and SRUUF is an ETF that holds physical uranium.

ETA: Investing in uranium is NOT for the faint of heart. It's extremely volatile. Pullbacks and consolidations of 30-50% are not uncommon.




UPDATE!! BREAKING NEWS!!??


If this is true, and it came from a reliable, respected, very knowledgeable source, it's monumental news. I can't even begin to get my head wrapped around it. I don't know if it's true or not, just passing it on.




@Krauss
@Chromekilla
@juslearnin  
@JoshD
@Smurf10161
@heat762
@far_right
@JamPo  
@fxntime  
@Speedwinder
@Procat
@grendelbane

Yes, I admit I sold  SRUUF too soon.  Made a nice profit, I may have to get back in next week.

Use your cranium, buy uranium!

Ha, not for me.

I did good this year on DNN, UEC and UUUU.

Have some nads, buy some rads.

Nice one!

https://www.prweb.com/releases/uranium-spot-price-approaches-16-year-high-amid-supply-concerns-302017313.html

Are you sure the uranium squeeze is organic and not a result of U consolidation for price control?

SEE: Gold, silver, oil, et al.

Positive.

The uranium market is cyclical and has suffered from severe underinvestment for years. There is no "uranium tap" to turn on and increase production. Not for several years at least.

Until recently, the only real uranium producer actually mining any uranium was Kazatomprom in Kazakhstan. Cameco only recently restarted production from its idled mines and they are having trouble meeting production targets. The price of uranium was too low for too long and there were no buyers anyway. Most of the mines in the world were shut down or on "care and maintenance." The US only produced 27,000 pounds of U308 in Q3 2023. That is literally nothing. U308 is sold in 100k lb lots.

Uranium is also unique in that even if you could turn on a tap that produced mined U308 (or yellowcake) tomorrow, it would still take 18 months to 2 years to turn it into reactor fuel. First you have to convert yellowcake to UF6, uranium hexaflouride, then you have to spin it in a centrfuge to enrich it. Then you have to convert it into reactor fuel. That process takes 18 months to 2 years and the west lacks the capacity to ramp that process up. Until recently, Russia did most of the conversion for the western market. That is now off the table.

Watch the video clip here:

Take this seriously \uD83D\uDC47 - #uranium spot market!

Full interview with Mike, watch here: https://t.co/gBxWx3ECA2 pic.twitter.com/biGolOP4bv

— \uD83D\uDCD0triANGLE INVESTOR (@capnek123) December 18, 2023

Spot uranium up again today.

\uD83D\uDC33 Spot #Uranium continues to soar to heights not seen in 16 years\uD83C\uDF0B\uD83E\uDD96 with #Nuclear fuel brokers 'Uranium Markets' UP another buck to $88/lb #U3O8 at today's open?? as we now see $90 on the Ask for March 2024 delivery \uD83D\uDE2F\uD83E\uDD20\uD83D\uDC02 #RideTheUTrain\uD83D\uDE86\uD83C\uDFAB pic.twitter.com/d4XkYFIclo

John Quakes  (@quakes99) December 18, 2023

What are the best stock plays here?

I bought a litte bit on URNM earlier this year. Its a ETF.

NLR and URA have been working well for me.

URNM to the moon!

Whoever has that thread about investing in uranium a couple years back, my wallet thanks you

Uranium spot price now $90






Least risk is SRUUF. It's an Trust that buys holds physical uranium.

Next are the ETFs, URA, URNM, and URNJ. URNM is a pure play uranium miner ETF. URNJ is a pure play junior miner ETF and URA is 70% U miners and various uranium related stocks.
Next would be Cameco, the second largest uranium producer in the world after Kazatomprom (KAP).

After that there are very few companies actually producing any uranium. See this chart below but take into account Encore has actually begun production.

\uD83D\uDCCAUPDATED Expected Production Roadmap for Key #Uranium Projects

I've gone through tons of investor presentations & analyst reports and aggregated the data to create a global roadmap.

The list might not be exhaustive, but should give good insights into the coming years.\uD83E\uDDD0

\uD83E\uDDF51/3 pic.twitter.com/G6R820TF4e

Mineral Stocks Investor  (@mineralstocks) October 15, 2023

That was me.

+1

My only regret was not going harder.  

URNM +19.02%

UEC +80.57%

I cashed out a bunch of money in a bond fund and put it in SRUUF last Sept. It's up 25% already. I almost did it last May and if I had, it would be a 75% gain. Just since last may.

Spot up to $92

??In Haywood Securities 21 December #Uranium Weekly\uD83D\uDCF0they provide commentary, news, charts & tables on U Supply/Demand, Price forecasts,\uD83D\uDCC8 Beta leverage, performance, company comparables\uD83D\uDCCA and their coverage & top picks for U #mining #stocks\uD83D\uDED2????\uD83E\uDD20\uD83D\uDC02\uD83C\uDF0A\uD83C\uDFC4https://t.co/PGxYibj5n7 pic.twitter.com/1LAPVAbW8Z

John Quakes  (@quakes99) December 22, 2023

https://clients.haywood.com/uploadfiles/secured_reports/UxDec212023.pdf

Can I bump this thread into the new year…..

DNN has been absolutely killing it for me. Bought in 2022 and well up over 25% already.

Reddit is always posting DNN predicted to go to $15. We shall see!

Who else is in?

Throwing beer money at 50% ea URA and URNM.

Threw craftbrew money at URA.

Spot hit $100 today after market close. Made a five dollar jump from 95 to 100.

I think it might finally be game on for the equities.

$101 now. Uranium is on the move.

My 401k thanks you for starting this thread.

Hopefully I am not being too stupid, but If am up about 9.2% in the last few weeks.  We will see how it pans out.

The uranium market was on fire today. Some of the highest volume and largest gains since the bull market began. I have made a lot of money riding this bull since the fall of 2020 and I believe there is still an opportunity here for life changing gains.

This bull has just begun. Barring a Fukashima or Chernobyl like event, this has a long way to go and nothing to stop it. Fuel buyers are starting to realize there is no uranium to be had, anywhere. Kazatomprom, the world's largest uranium producer, just announced today that they didn't meet their 2023 targets and won't be able to meet their 2024 or 2025 targets. They were actually planning to increase production. They supply ~25% of the world's uranium. Cameco, the world's second largest producer, has cut back production forecasts as well. That is huge news in a market that already in a structural deficit for the next few years. There simply are no new supplies of uranium that can come to market in a timely manner. We're talking years.

https://winnipegsun.com/commodities/mining/uranium-miner-warns-shortfall-as-nuclear-demand-takes-off



Please do your own research and don't invest any more money than you can afford to lose.

Uranium spot price was $95 a pound yesterday morning. In four moves it rose all the way to $104 in less than 24 hrs.

??@Sprott Physical #Uranium Trust ticker $U.UN on #Canada's TSX traded over 6.6 Million shares today across all Canadian exchanges\uD83D\uDD0A with its ATM running hot.\uD83D\uDD25\uD83C\uDFE7\uD83D\uDCB5 Appears #SPUT may have raised over C$100M\uD83D\uDCB0\uD83E\uDD20\uD83D\uDC02 with Goldman Sachs biggest net buyer of 1.23M shares worth C$39M!\uD83D\uDE32 pic.twitter.com/Zwo2KTaEM2

John Quakes  (@quakes99) January 12, 2024

Captainpooby,  what do you know about the uranium bubble of 2007?

What drove it and what caused it to burst?  

How do those dynamics compare to current ones?

Thanks

wonder if a guy could make money from the ETFs, or needs direct plays? I'm throwing beer money at this play. So makes me curious. It seems likely if the two big boys sky rocket the other two may hold steady.

The uranium market is normally cyclical just by nature of the contracting cycle. 2007 was more of a classic bubble, the price was ramping up as the contracting cycling began but it was kicked into high gear and went parabolic when MacArthur River mine flooded and the Cigar Lake mine flooded after that. It died with the 2008 GFC and Fukushima drove a stake in it's heart.

A key difference from now to back then is back then there was no structural deficit in supply. There was plenty of uranium for sale back then. Remember megatons to megawatts? That program ran until 2013 IIRC. After Fukushima nuclear power was in a major decline. Japan shut all their reactors and a lot of countries followed suit. Nuclear power went out of fashion bigtime. Everyone was letting the reactor life expire or outright shutting plants down. Even France was planning on shutting their reatcors down. Demand for uranium dried up and there was a lot of secondary supply from reactors that shut down early like Japan.

Because there was no demand all the plans for new uranium mines were shelved. Most of the producing mines had to shut down or go on care and maintainence, mothballed if you will. That left only a couple producing mines in the world, Kazatomprom in Khazakstan being one. They are thew world's largest and lowest cost producer. Orano, a French company was running some mines in Africa. Niger.

Anyway, most mines closed and what little demand there was was satisfied by the Russians or the secondary market. So now the west has no operating mines and the Russian supply is mostly cut off and the French were just kicked out of Niger.

What else has changed? Nuclear power is no longer a pariah. In fact it's experiencing a rennaisance. Japan is restarting their reactors, France is no longer planning to shut theirs as are many other countries. 22 countries just pledged at COP28 to triple their nuclear power. Even California is keeping Diablo canyon running. Everyone is now realizing that their plans for Net Zero are impossible without nuclear power. Reality has reared it's ugly head and now a lot of the former anti-nuclear greenies have done a 180 and are embracing nukes.

So where does that bring us? It's time in the fuel cycle for the utilities to start contracting and there is basically not enough uranium mine supply to feed the demand. By a big margin and it's only getting worse. Unlike the last time there is zero secondary supply now. The uranium has to come from a mine and nobody has spent any money developing any uranium deposit for years. Not since Fukushima.

It takes a long time to open a mine, any mine. It takes even longer for a uranium mine. If you had the deposit and the money to build it and you started today it would take about ten years to start a uranium mine with all the permitting and constructing a mill etc. Then once you dig the uranium out of the ground it takes about two years to turn it into fuel. Mine it, refine it into yellow cake U308, turn that into UF6, put that in a centrifuge and refine it to 5% U232, the convert that into fuel, then fabricate that into fuel pellets for the reactor. That takes about two years from mine to reactor. We dont even have the conversion capacity anymore.

The reality is if you add up all the coming demand from presently operating reactors and add up all the uranium supply coming out of the ground at this time and in the near future, the numbers dont match. There just isn't enough uranium and won't be for the forseable future. Add in all the new demand and the problem is even worse. That doesn't even account for the financial players in the physical uranium funds. Ther are now 4 or 5 investment funds that buy and sequester physical uranium. These funds have hoovered up what little secondary supply there was over the last two years.



Lack of investment in uranium mining for the last 10-12 years has got us here and there is no way to fix this in a timely manner. The fact is, while this may be good for a uranium investor it could be very bad for the utilities that run reactors. You just can turn off a reactor and trun it back on. It's entirely possible some utes could be left without a chair when the music stops.

This has never happened before. Not just in the uranium market but in any commodity market. Usually high prices are the fix for high prices. The problem with uranium is all the high prices in the world wont let you compress time and time is what it's going to take get new supplies on line. There is very little uranium supply available in the near future and utility fuel buyers are just waking up to this fact. That's why the spot price is climbing. That and the physical funds buying.



Anyway, long story short, last time there was plenty of supply when the price went parabolic. That was driven by greed and speculation. This time there is a structural deficit in supply that can't be easily fixed in a timely manner. The price rise is due to lack of supply, not speculation and greed.

This isn't something new that a few players have noticed and others like me have jumped on the bandwagon recently. Major players in the field have seen this coming for years. Since then, nuclear power has gone from pariah to savior. Financial players have entered the physical market. Japan has restarted it's reactors. China is building and planning a shit ton of reactors... and nobody has asked "where are we going to get the uranium from?" until it's too late.

I first heard the thesis late in 2020.. Since then I have researched the shit out of the thesis. Read everything I could, watched a hundred webinars and interviews with the top names in the business. I even paid for a newletter. I have NEVER done that before.They all say the same thing. We are in a structural defecit of supply for the foreseable future and it's only going to get worse before it gets better. Over the last three years I have committed more and more of my cash to this. I can't find the bear case except if a Fukushima-like black swan event happens. It's like walking up to the roulette wheel and all the numbers except '00' are black. I know it seems too good to be true and I keep asking myself that but it sure as is turning out just like they all said it would.



I think so. Of course the largest gains will be from direct plays but how to pick the winnerss? Safest play is SRUUF, the Spott physical fund, then the ETFs URA, URNM, URNJ or the big dog Cameco CCJ.

Captainpooby,  thank you very much for your comprehensive and thoughtful answer. I appreciate your time and willingness to educate.

 

You don't even know. I'm a two finger typist. That was an ordeal lol!

thanks a bunch I'm gonna adjust my allocations on Monday. Also appreciate you sharing your detailed research I really like to know it, sadly just don't have the time to track it down.  Now if anyone wants to know ocean shipping I'm your guy that's been my jam since 2007

I hear thru the grapevine KAZ has to buy in the spot market to fulfill it's contracts. The world's largets uranium producer is actually short uranium.

Just some advice if you’re thinking of entering the market. Uranium stocks made a huge jump up on Friday and its not uncommon for profit taking to happen after a big jump. Many of the stocks gapped up Friday. It’s also not uncommon for stocks to backtrack and fill those gaps. Be patient an don’t chase. There may be a pullback shortly. It might continue up too. No one knows.

Justin Hune just posted this on twitter and I thought I'd share it here. He's the owner and publisher of the Uranium Insider newsletter I subscribe to. There are few more knowledgable the him about the uranium trade.

I’m deeply humbled by the messages & emails expressing gratitude. It’s been an emotional week between the personal stories shared with me and sending my kid off to college. I do my best to be stoic, but I’m really moved by it all. I appreciate all of you.

A few quick thoughts..

Uranium Insider  (@uraniuminsider) January 14, 2024

And here is a sneak peak at one of members only webinars from last November that was published outside the paywall. I highly recommend watching.

https://www.uraniuminsider.com/SNEAK-PEAK-November-Members-Only-Webinar


ETA:

If there was a bear case to this market, some people said that Kazatomprom or Cameco would just ramp up production and flood the market. Both of these companies have announced that they are currently having difficulties meeting their prior targets. Bear case gone. Bewm!

US market is closed tomorrow for MLK day but if you're on twitter, this guy @patrickadownes is an Australian guy and every night at open (6pm eastern) and close (12am eastern) he posts a screenshot of the Aussie U stocks. The ASX has not yet had a chance to react to Friday's spot price move. Should be interesting to watch tonight.

If this is true, and it came from a reliable, respected, very knowledgeable source, it's monumental news. I can't even begin to get my head wrapped around it. I don't know if it's true or not, just passing it on.




@Krauss
@Chromekilla
@juslearnin  
@JoshD
@Smurf10161
@heat762
@far_right
@JamPo  
@fxntime  
@Speedwinder
@Procat
@grendelbane

Interesting.

I have quite a bit in URNM and Kazatomprom is their #1 holding at 15%.  CCJ is #3 at 14%.  My first instinct would be to get out and move to SRUUF.  It will be interesting to see how this would play out for the fund overall as all of the other mines should experience only an upside.

 

I don’t think it will affect the fund negatively. All the other U equities are on fire. If Kap goes down, it won’t be felt much.

The Australian market was lit last night. A sea of green with a lot U tickers making double digit percent gains. The TSX should be fun to watch today. I sure wish the US markets were open today.

??#uranium miners did 580% in its baby bull move.

Been saying for years - above black line, the real fireworks starts.

BREAKOUT last week!

Have caught all major lows & highs on the service for uranium since calling the 2020 March low. Try doing that without charts!?? #joinus pic.twitter.com/thE3Nwez7Z

— Graddhy - Commodities TA+Cycles (@graddhybpc) January 15, 2024

Spot U308 up another 2 bucks today. $106

I intend to open a position in URNJ, and SRUUF (physical fund) on Tuesday.

In on this.

Take warning, this is an extremely volatile market. This is the last bull run. Not for the faint of heart.

I had some Doge sitting in my Robinhood account; sold it and bought URA. Strictly FAFO money.

You'd think that #uranium breaching the $100 mark would wake up investors en masse right? Well, they appear to remain sound asleep. Case in point, #reddit:

wallstreetbets: 14.7m, 3 posts
stocks: 6.2m, 0 posts
stockmarket: 2.9m, 0 posts
investing: 2.5m, 0 posts

See you at greed. pic.twitter.com/KN1ODgjJyV

Yellowbull  (@Yellowbull11) January 16, 2024

Here's a great read from back in September. Harris Kupperman from Praetorian Capital attended the World Nuclear Association (WNA) conference in London and compared his experience to a scene in the movie "The Big Short."

https://pracap.com/the-bigger-short/

And a follow up to that is an interview he did shortly afterwards with Mike Alkin of Sachem Cove, an extremely knowledgeable player in the uranium world. Remember, this is back in September.

https://pracap.com/kuppy-and-mike-alkin-uranium-interview-at-the-2023-world-nuclear-association-symposium/

Good info OP! Thanks for posting.

Who's up for a group buy 250 Lb contract on CME?

Talk about a hot potato trade sheesh.

The media is picking up the story. Not long until real money starts moving in to the sector. The total uranium market is extremely small, somewhere around $70B I'd guess. Up from $50B about a year ago. That's all the physical funds and miners MC added together. Keep in mind, a lot of institutional money wants in to this sector but they can't because it's too small and illiquid. When institutional and retail money does try to squeeze in, I think Rick Rule said "It's like trying to run a firehose through a straw."


https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-01-19/personal-wealth-uranium-prices-keep-going-up-but-many-still-want-it?utm_source=website&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=twitter

kazatomprom has a Q4 2023 earnings call Feb 1st. They are expected to announced they missed production calls for 2023 and expect to miss for 24 and probably 25. This could shock the market big time.

If you don’t have a position in uranium now might be a good time to buy.


Worried you missed the boat on uranium? Watch this video where John Legget dispels the many myths and bear cases for the uranium trade.



Here's a great podcast with Harris Kupperman and Justin Hune.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/going-nuclear-with-justin-huhn-and-trevor-hall/id1660633132?i=1000643235403

I have shifted money out of URNM and into SRUUF .   It seems to me like the mines potentially have both an upside and downside. As prices go up, obviously their profits will go up. However, if they’re having to buy uranium on the spot market to fill contracts, because they can’t  mine enough, that’s going to cost them.

Boom! KAP missed production targets by about 9mm pounds. There will be no "knight in shining armor" to rescue the utilities who need uranium. Uranium stocks in the pre-market today are looking pretty good.

Boom!\uD83D\uDCA5 Kazatomprom $KAP 4Q23 Operations and Trading Update\uD83D\uDCF0 cuts #Kazakhstan's 2024 #Uranium Production Guidance from 25,300 tU (65.8M lbs #U3O8) to 21,750 tU (56.5M lbs) at -9.3M lbs below previous guidance (-14.2%)???\uD83C\uDF86\uD83D\uDE32\uD83E\uDD20\uD83D\uDC02 #Nuclear #SupplyCrunch\uD83D\uDDDC? https://t.co/OR3ox28Hn8 pic.twitter.com/R7bTI0KFCc

John Quakes  (@quakes99) February 1, 2024

Even at the lower end of $KAP’s scale this equates to a miss of -17.6% on previous production estimates for 2024.

In the perspective of 135m lbs of global annual supply this removes another 7.3% #uranium from the global market.
 
While exact numbers were not given on how KAP’s…

Nick Lawson  (@lawse) February 1, 2024

I can't imagine there is that much demand for Uranium that is mined.

There is so much fuel (literally >100-200 year US supply) in storage  just from downblended Highly Enriched Uranium that can be made in to reactor fuel.  Much used to come from Russian surplus , so I guess maybe the issue is that futures of downblended are at risk due to Russian situation?

Wrong.

Megatons to megawatts ended in 2013. There is NO secondary supply from downblended nukes anymore, none, zero. There is a structural deficit in the amount of uranium mined in the world vs the amount consumed. The price of uranium has gone from $20lb to $106lb in the last two years. That didn't happen because there is a surplus of uranium lying around.

https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/01/36836481/surging-uranium-demand-supply-constraints-fuel-predictions-of-record-price-increases