https://www.marketinout.com/chart/market.php?breadth=mcclellan-summation-index

As an old Equities Index Futures swing trader I've been seeing MULTIPLE MACRO LEVEL danger signals in 4Q23 and now going into 2024, SI is one more very important example because it just turned down.

Interested in others thoughts?

Besides Cramer saying 2024 will be great

I hold hours to weeks; posting here as long term folks may be interested and possibly affected IMO.

Also of note:

ES Close of 2023 Year = 4820

Every institutional desk watches this level, it sets the overall tone going into the new year. We opened down on the year then last week rallied up to test and it's now failed so far this week on increasing volume.

ES 4770 in premarket down .63% as I type this.

Saw the same thing and added to some short positions in December and a little more recently along with a few energy longs.  The whole end of year rally was supposedly based on inflation cooling to a CPI of 3.2 and the expectation of 3-7 rate cuts this year.  Latest is 3.4, negating that premise.  Inflation is hotter in Europe and Canada as well.  So it's higher for longer which means all the crap companies that don't make a profit inch closer to their graves or if inflation really heats up (and Brandon is working overtime on that ) then the Fed will have to resume raising rates.  Door number 3 is some banks start to collapse and the market follows them into a sinkhole as people try to figure out exposure.

Biggest laugh was watching reits rally with the 10 year down a point and a quarter.  They need rates at a point and a quarter to not implode

I'm sure yellen will step in and crank the printers up at some point so I don't want to be greedy on either side, just play the volatility just like the last 2 years.  Tbills are still the best seat in the house IMO.

Literally every market in the OP link has turned down now. This is not healthy folks.

Yep, check this chart and look at the most recent 5 years - very interesting

https://www.macrotrends.net/1324/s-p-500-earnings-history

That's a pretty interesting divergence.  I'm not a crash caller, but it damn sure feels like we are being set up for one by this government.

And a lot of the profitless unicorns I shorted have gone down pretty hard - there's plenty more still out there but I'm not sure they'll go down until the market itself goes down as they're considered blue chip unicorns amongst the degens, like draftkings and doordash.

I was going to sell the majority of my holdings in May and go away until after the election but I might bump that up by a few weeks.

I thought it was coming a few times over the past few years but then nothing. I haven't had confidence in this market since Covid. But I'm cash heavy collecting 4-5%, I desperately want to move into something more aggressive but can't pull the trigger, very frustrating.

Some of the emerging market picks I've been watching are shedding percentages in spite of  positive news revenue wise, definitely a bit suspect.

Thanks for the replies.

This morning I'm seeing outside-of-equities "fundamentals" catching up to Equities internals weakness (since YO 2024) as measured in OP Summation Index charts.

Namely, crude oil ripping up on a combination of summer rally oil seasonality but more importantly the middle east situation.

Oil rally is historically bad for Equities for obvious reasons, so another layer of caution is being added by middle east IMO.

OK ... something appears to have snapped now.

Oil up 1 1/2 pct intraday

VIX (fear) screaming up

ES down under 20 day SMA on high volume

We are red for the quarter, month, week, and this isn't typical Thursday action except to say the whales work Thursdays.

The freak show which has been the last two quarters may be catching up to reality now.

Intraday volume is huge - 4x normal

ETA I'm FLAT with no ES position so no biased news here, just passing along price, volume and breadth (SI in OP) things I'm seeing

Here's the piece of news I hadn't seen during last post:

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/oil-pushes-higher-reports-uae-severing-aid-coordination-israel-bibi-puts-embassies

So generally the way this works is this:

Retail traders see the bad news tonight and sell tomorrow Friday.

Next bad news & bad market action over the weekend news reading cycle = more selling over weekend while markets are closed.

Black Monday

Next week idk but these charts are getting uglier still into today's close--Thursday--and it's doing a lot of technical damage.

So this is an important high volume break to the downside on a huge news surprise therefore price-confirming the OP point until proven otherwise.

Prayers inbound for our Country.

April 8 is eclipse ... great.

Black Monday indeed ... x2 now.

I personally wouldn't be naked long (unhedged) into this weekend.

I'm starting to see signs of life in even the most obscure commodities which does not bode well for inflation down the road.  Thought it might be from front running an attempted recovery in China but I have yet to see any evidence.

This entire rally has been due to multiple expansion while earnings estimates have gone down.  People were acting like it was the end of the world on Thursday and that was less than a 2% drawdown.  They must not have been around in 2000, that was some volatility.

And down we'll most likely go ...

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/consumer-prices-print-hotter-expected-led-surge-energy-shelter-costs

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/surveying-post-cpi-market-carnage

--- Today's marker "turnaround Tuesday" ---

1% Gap down, double bottom back to last Thursday's LOD

ES back down to the gap and crap level w/double bottom price = 5150

Que the VanHalen song:

WHAT DOES 5150 MEAN?
5150 refers to the California law code for the temporary, involuntary psychiatric commitment of individuals who present a danger to themselves or others due to signs of mental illness. It has been more generally applied to people who are considered threateningly unstable or “crazy.”

I swear they do this on purpose

Hope this thread has been informative.

Downside price momentum is now under way on high volume and rising volatility.

ETA Regarding the 4-10-2024 post above: Turnaround Tuesday is a day-of-week market personality or seasonality clue. Meaning, if no reversal on Monday-Tuesday's direction the remainder of week tends to follow.

Today is Wednesday and ES is still getting crushed (Breadth as measured in OP, Volume, Volatility, not merely price) which doesn't bode well for rest of week generally.

I remember when they closed sp500 at 911 on 911.  No manipulation there.

Looks to me like bitcoin which is a measure of liquidity topped in March as gold broke out from a very long base and is no coincidence.  Plenty of other signs too, dollar milkshake theory seems to be in effect.

--- Friday morning marker ---

NASDAQ generally leads - down 1 1/2 percent

ES disintegrating down below round number 5000 and triggering numerous CTA sell levels

ETA 1:00 MST rally up to 5000 failed ES new LOD

Mondays upward correction was on low volume

Today, Tuesday, will probably be turnaround to new lows as week progresses