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Posted: 4/2/2024 1:59:08 PM EDT
[#1]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Which ironically, is the argument for not getting involved in this particular Pacific territorial dispute. Both look pennywise and pound foolish. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: Quoted: “If we don’t stop them they will take over the world!”..Where have I heard that line before? Funny, we didn’t mind the USSR spreading its poison between 1919-1939-1950, but now we are expected to care that China wants what it (wrongfully) believes to be there own? Actually, we did mind the USSR coming onto the world stage, but we didnt fund and equip the Whites properly to be an effective opposition force to the Reds. Where have we heard THAT before. We're pretty good at funding proxies but not enough to actually vanquish the foe . By the time of 1939-45 we needed Stalin to keep the Eastern front open, because if WW1 taught us anything, when the Russians fold and take their guys home, it allows the Germans to reallocate their divisions to the other fronts and extend the conflict Here's an interesting question, why didn't we fund the Whites effectively? We felt strongly enough about the issue to send Marines to Archangel. The Palmer Raids/Red Scare were during the early parts of the Russian Civil War. Then they stopped. Could it be that State was penetrated even earlier than the 30's? Or maybe that we just spent a SHITLOAD of money on WW1 and didn't have the funds? Which ironically, is the argument for not getting involved in this particular Pacific territorial dispute. Both look pennywise and pound foolish. True but at the time, we didn't have the benefit of hindsight. We didn't know the evils Communism would perpetrate and a lot of people at the time were pretty fucking tired of the monarchies that ruled Europe and were looking for any substitute. |
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Posted: 4/2/2024 2:16:08 PM EDT
[#2]
Quote HistorySigh. That certainly explains why he is pro Russia and China. |
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Posted: 4/2/2024 4:09:36 PM EDT
[#3]
Sorry if this has been mentioned before, but for me it's all about the chip fabs. Unless or until the US becomes self-sufficient in chips (unlikely) then Taiwan is simply too important. It isn't even just the fabs themselves, it's the R&D and knowledge infrastructure that it takes to make them. China can't just capture some fabs and labs intact and have that ecosystem that made world class stuff, but they could get there. Look at Hong Kong; they didn't kill the golden goose, but they did lock it in a cage.
Or China might just destroy the Taiwanese chip fabs in the process of an invasion, and that would also fuck everything up. Deterring China is the only guarantee we have, and if deterrence works (because it is credible and exists in the right numbers and types of weapons) then it will also greatly reduce the chances of war in the first place. If we don't have that credible threat, it almost guarantees we will have a war. It's how totalitarian states have always operated. Sic vis pacem, para bellum. |
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Posted: 4/2/2024 4:14:27 PM EDT
[#4]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Sorry if this has been mentioned before, but for me it's all about the chip fabs. Unless or until the US becomes self-sufficient in chips (unlikely) then Taiwan is simply too important. It isn't even just the fabs themselves, it's the R&D and knowledge infrastructure that it takes to make them. China can't just capture some fabs and labs intact and have that ecosystem that made world class stuff, but they could get there. Look at Hong Kong; they didn't kill the golden goose, but they did lock it in a cage. Or China might just destroy the Taiwanese chip fabs in the process of an invasion, and that would also fuck everything up. Deterring China is the only guarantee we have, and if deterrence works (because it is credible and exists in the right numbers and types of weapons) then it will also greatly reduce the chances of war in the first place. If we don't have that credible threat, it almost guarantees we will have a war. It's how totalitarian states have always operated. Sic vis pacem, para bellum. Ideally we deter, but if we can't than we need to have the intelligence capability to predict an invasion and a plan in place to evacuate every valuable piece of tooling and every valuable person from TWSC possible to the USA while being prepared to sabotage or outright destroy any valuable before it fell into China's hands. We're not ready for a direct conflict with China, we're very far from ready and I don't see any reasonable time frame by which we'd be ready. The only good news is that China is an internal mess right now and I don't think they're ready for a invasion of Taiwan. That said, because China is increasingly just a one man dictatorship it's really damn hard to predict their actions, because it means predicting Xi's action and leaders with that much power tend to go crazy. Our CHIP Act doesn't go far enough, not even close. We need to take U.S. semiconductor repatriation way more seriously. It's absolutely sickening to think that the Baby Boomers allowed us to go from producting 90% of the world's high end semiconductors to basically making none here at home while at the same time allowing the production of maybe the most valuable thing on earth to be centralized in a potential conflict zone.  Then people wonder why we're so hard on the Baby Boomers.We also need to get our act together concerning Rare Earth Minerals. We have one tiny, tiny cobalt and one tiny, tiny lithium mine in the entire country right now, that's not good. Plus, nearly all our medical equipment, supplies, and even prescription medications are now made in Asia. So any disruption to Pacific trade would make it very dificult to prosecute a war. |
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Posted: 4/2/2024 4:19:26 PM EDT
[#5]
Oh, I see the poll question changed.
IF China struck the US or one of our allies, we would already have a state of war. We wouldn't just be justified, it would be a necessity to retaliate, or China would know they can strike with impunity. There are plenty of Chinese bases or other targets that don't have to be in mainland China, and even a blockade would much more negatively impact China than it would us. The nature of the response would have to depend upon what China hit. Again, the best way to prevent China from stepping out is to make them fear the consequences. We shouldn't want a shooting war with China, but the best way to prevent one is to be prepared. |
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Posted: 4/2/2024 4:21:44 PM EDT
[#6]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Oh, I see the poll question changed. IF China struck the US or one of our allies, we would already have a state of war. We wouldn't just be justified, it would be a necessity to retaliate, or China would know they can strike with impunity. There are plenty of Chinese bases or other targets that don't have to be in mainland China, and even a blockade would much more negatively impact China than it would us. The nature of the response would have to depend upon what China hit. Again, the best way to prevent China from stepping out is to make them fear the consequences. We shouldn't want a shooting war with China, but the best way to prevent one is to be prepared. The problem though is if we enter the conflict we expand it and now all of Asia is a war zone, which would disrupt vital trade that we as a nation are now entirely dependent upon. Remember all the supply issues during COVID? Multiple those by a thousand and you'll have an idea of what a conflict between the USA and China would result in. Whereas, if we sat it out the conflict is likely just limited to Taiwan. If we had a massive disruption to our economy and a massive economic downturn from a massive war right now with our deeply divided and diverse society would the USA even hold together and survive as a democracy through that turmoil? Look at the push back on the draft during Vietnam when we were still a largely monothlic culture just one generation removed from WW2. |
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Posted: 4/2/2024 4:29:06 PM EDT
[#7]
All great points KMR, it really is a thorny issue.
I suppose we are able to deter China now to an extent now, but the moment that changes, we will have big trouble. 
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Posted: 4/2/2024 4:34:32 PM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryQuoted: We're not ready for a direct conflict with China, we're very far from ready and I don't see any reasonable time frame by which we'd be ready. Disagree sort of. We're not ready for a land war in China but I don't think anyone is suggesting we should fight one. We don't have to conquer China, nor do we have to put boots on the ground. We just have to keep them from crossing that damned Strait. And I think we're very much able to do that, assuming we can count on Japan and South Korea. The big danger is that North Korea might take advantage of the situation to strike the south, which would keep them out of it. We might be able to pull Australia in on our side. |
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Posted: 4/2/2024 11:12:42 PM EDT
[#9]
Quote HistoryQuoted: So go down to the border and do what? Be very specific in your answers Whatever the TXNG is doing at the time. Range from admin, arresting folks, brush teams, or manning checkpoints |
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Posted: 4/14/2024 6:43:12 PM EDT
[#10]
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Posted: 4/16/2024 11:18:46 PM EDT
[#11]
The least expensive way for the US to keep the PLA from attacking Taiwan is to gift 40 nukes to Taiwan.
Doing so gives dictator Xi a dilemma of whether the juice is worth the squeeze. Dictator Xi has to determine if his regime will survive being overthrown once 40 cities on the mainland disappear. |
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Posted: 4/17/2024 8:14:27 AM EDT
[#12]
Quote HistoryQuoted: The problem though is if we enter the conflict we expand it and now all of Asia is a war zone, which would disrupt vital trade that we as a nation are now entirely dependent upon. Remember all the supply issues during COVID? Multiple those by a thousand and you'll have an idea of what a conflict between the USA and China would result in. Whereas, if we sat it out the conflict is likely just limited to Taiwan. If we had a massive disruption to our economy and a massive economic downturn from a massive war right now with our deeply divided and diverse society would the USA even hold together and survive as a democracy through that turmoil? Look at the push back on the draft during Vietnam when we were still a largely monothlic culture just one generation removed from WW2. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Oh, I see the poll question changed. IF China struck the US or one of our allies, we would already have a state of war. We wouldn't just be justified, it would be a necessity to retaliate, or China would know they can strike with impunity. There are plenty of Chinese bases or other targets that don't have to be in mainland China, and even a blockade would much more negatively impact China than it would us. The nature of the response would have to depend upon what China hit. Again, the best way to prevent China from stepping out is to make them fear the consequences. We shouldn't want a shooting war with China, but the best way to prevent one is to be prepared. The problem though is if we enter the conflict we expand it and now all of Asia is a war zone, which would disrupt vital trade that we as a nation are now entirely dependent upon. Remember all the supply issues during COVID? Multiple those by a thousand and you'll have an idea of what a conflict between the USA and China would result in. Whereas, if we sat it out the conflict is likely just limited to Taiwan. If we had a massive disruption to our economy and a massive economic downturn from a massive war right now with our deeply divided and diverse society would the USA even hold together and survive as a democracy through that turmoil? Look at the push back on the draft during Vietnam when we were still a largely monothlic culture just one generation removed from WW2. If we “sit it out”, the West loses access to the last 25 years of technology, as well as any military technological advantage. That’s a bigger problem, because the West can’t replace that in less than a couple of decades at least. |
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Posted: 4/17/2024 8:26:23 AM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryQuoted: If we “sit it out”, the West loses access to the last 25 years of technology, as well as any military technological advantage. That’s a bigger problem, because the West can’t replace that in less than a couple of decades at least. We're better off returning to how it was. Fuck the decadent debauchery that computers created. |
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Posted: 4/17/2024 8:46:06 AM EDT
[#14]
The US should have done more to check the communist China once a rift between China and the USSR became apparent. We will never be stronger than we are today, the Chinese regime needs to be removed and the Taiwanese government restored over the country.
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Posted: 4/17/2024 9:26:17 AM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryQuoted: We're better off returning to how it was. Fuck the decadent debauchery that computers created. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: If we “sit it out”, the West loses access to the last 25 years of technology, as well as any military technological advantage. That’s a bigger problem, because the West can’t replace that in less than a couple of decades at least. We're better off returning to how it was. Fuck the decadent debauchery that computers created. Nonsense. Your vision creates a world with one superpower, and it’s China. I guarantee that’s not a world you want to live in. |
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Posted: 4/17/2024 9:51:45 AM EDT
[#16]
The war drums seem to be beating a little louder each day. I find myself wondering what the First World War veterans felt like in 1939
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Posted: 4/17/2024 10:03:34 AM EDT
[#17]
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Posted: 4/17/2024 10:04:17 AM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Nonsense. Your vision creates a world with one superpower, and it’s China. I guarantee that’s not a world you want to live in. I believe he’s being facetious |
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Posted: 4/17/2024 10:11:07 AM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryI’m hearing LSCO 2030 more often now. Not sure if it’s that far off. I’ll be 66 but according to Uncle Sam I can still be in uniform until 73 and a half without a waiver. SMH at the situation we are in and that may be coming. Not many younger physicians coming in these days and they certainly can’t train new ones up by 2030 unless they are already in training |
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Posted: 4/17/2024 10:14:49 AM EDT
[#20]
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Posted: 4/17/2024 10:16:18 AM EDT
[#21]
With the BS going on in the Middle East, I say we nuke Iran to send China a message.
My 2cents. |
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Posted: 4/17/2024 10:26:25 AM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I’m hearing LSCO 2030 more often now. Not sure if it’s that far off. I’ll be 66 but according to Uncle Sam I can still be in uniform until 73 and a half without a waiver. SMH at the situation we are in and that may be coming. Not many younger physicians coming in these days and they certainly can’t train new ones up by 2030 unless they are already in training The USMC was pushing the 2030 and beyond timeline. Twenty years ago I was telling DOD & .Gov it would take place in 2024 but I bumped my assessment to 2025 a few years ago. PACOM {I’m not gonna use IndoPac} for the past three commanders has projected 2027 |
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Posted: 4/17/2024 10:27:40 AM EDT
[#23]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Nonsense. Your vision creates a world with one superpower, and it’s China. I guarantee that’s not a world you want to live in. Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: Quoted: If we “sit it out”, the West loses access to the last 25 years of technology, as well as any military technological advantage. That’s a bigger problem, because the West can’t replace that in less than a couple of decades at least. We're better off returning to how it was. Fuck the decadent debauchery that computers created. Nonsense. Your vision creates a world with one superpower, and it’s China. I guarantee that’s not a world you want to live in. |
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Posted: 4/17/2024 10:28:29 AM EDT
[#24]
Quote HistoryQuoted: With the BS going on in the Middle East, I say we nuke Iran to send China a message. My 2cents. I say we nuke China to send the houthis a message. |
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Posted: 4/17/2024 10:35:13 AM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I say we nuke China to send the houthis a message. Can we nuke China to send my ex wife a message? I had to laugh at all the talk I heard at the Navy Air Station tax office about alimony this month. I ended up filing an extension |
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Posted: 4/17/2024 10:38:16 AM EDT
[#26]
Quote HistoryQuoted: The USMC was pushing the 2030 and beyond timeline. Twenty years ago I was telling DOD & .Gov it would take place in 2024 but I bumped my assessment to 2025 a few years ago. PACOM {I’m not gonna use IndoPac} for the past three commanders has projected 2027 Whichever year it is I suspect we will be caught with our pants down. Again. |
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Posted: 4/17/2024 10:50:19 AM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryQuote HistoryChina has long since departed from any attempt to comply with the international rules-based order. Instead of forging balanced partnerships, Beijing coerces and pressures economically vulnerable nations to establish a relationship that results in their subordinate position as dependent states. PRC values hegemony, and seeks to become the world's hegemon, but with Chinese values in service of China's agenda, just as they see the US ran things in the post-WWII era. |
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Posted: 4/17/2024 11:01:48 AM EDT
[#28]
Quote HistoryQuoted: PRC values hegemony, and seeks to become the world's hegemon, but with Chinese values in service of China's agenda, just as they see the US ran things in the post-WWII era. If you read China news on the mainland they have contempt for the US as they call it “Democracy” and second amendment and basically how the USA goes about things. They feel the mainland CCP Chinese style government and society is both better and better example for other countries than the USA |
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Posted: 4/17/2024 11:02:59 AM EDT
[#29]
Can’t fight a war in 3 fronts.
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Posted: 4/17/2024 11:03:33 AM EDT
[#30]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Whichever year it is I suspect we will be caught with our pants down. Again. We seem to have quite a history of having to lose a lot of people and spend a year or two to get back on track combined with a hatred of long wars which is quite a pickle - don’t wanna be ready to end a war fast but also don’t want to a war that isn’t over fast |
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Posted: 4/17/2024 11:05:45 AM EDT
[#31]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Can’t fight a war in 3 fronts. China Iran and Russia are banking on an overstretched USA so that we are forced to give up on the regions they hope to dominate - although it’s weird seeing Iranians all over Africa and South America. Russia is active in Africa as well but China more economically than militarily |
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Posted: 4/17/2024 11:08:18 AM EDT
[#32]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Whichever year it is I suspect we will be caught with our pants down. Again. Oh and every swingingbdick will be needed. I guarantee all the trans, black lesbian army rangers etc will duck out asap and you’ll see them at the VA saying they couldn’t fight China cause they got sand in their vagina rated 30% sandy vagina disability |
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Posted: 4/17/2024 11:08:19 AM EDT
[#33]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Can we nuke China to send my ex wife a message? I had to laugh at all the talk I heard at the Navy Air Station tax office about alimony this month. I ended up filing an extension Quote HistoryQuoted: Quoted: I say we nuke China to send the houthis a message. Can we nuke China to send my ex wife a message? I had to laugh at all the talk I heard at the Navy Air Station tax office about alimony this month. I ended up filing an extension I'm down. Key turn in 3,2,1 |
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Posted: 4/17/2024 11:08:22 AM EDT
[#34]
Quote HistoryQuoted: We seem to have quite a history of having to lose a lot of people and spend a year or two to get back on track combined with a hatred of long wars which is quite a pickle - don’t wanna be ready to end a war fast but also don’t want to a war that isn’t over fast But as lethal as many systems are it may be a “come as you are” conflict and be over before we can ramp up our manpower and manufacturing. |
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Posted: 4/17/2024 11:08:36 AM EDT
[#35]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I'm down. Key turn in 3,2,1 
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Posted: 4/17/2024 11:09:12 AM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Whichever year it is I suspect we will be caught with our pants down. Again. Because the neoconglobohomoWEFuckerdemonCRAPs love getting us into wars. |
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Posted: 4/17/2024 11:10:18 AM EDT
[#37]
Quote HistoryQuoted: If you read China news on the mainland they have contempt for the US as they call it “Democracy” and second amendment and basically how the USA goes about things. They feel the mainland CCP Chinese style government and society is both better and better example for other countries than the USA We feel the same way about them. Embrace Machiavellian, to the victor goes the spoils. |
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Posted: 4/17/2024 11:11:22 AM EDT
[#38]
Quote HistoryQuoted: But as lethal as many systems are it may be a “come as you are” conflict and be over before we can ramp up our manpower and manufacturing. China White papers a decade ago were pushing 30 days or less seize Taiwan but since Ukraine China thinking in some of their circles has shifted to long war speculation. Ultimately we’ll only know once things happen. Is Biden in the White House? Does Japan support Taiwan? Does China send the DPRK into South Korea? Does China anti sub stuff work or suck ass? We’ll just have to see |
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Posted: 4/17/2024 11:11:53 AM EDT
[#39]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Oh and every swingingbdick will be needed. I guarantee all the trans, black lesbian army rangers etc will duck out asap and you’ll see them at the VA saying they couldn’t fight China cause they got sand in their vagina rated 30% sandy vagina disability And the XX chromosome types who identify as XY will suddenly become pregnant and non deployable. Even though present regs state those transitioning are non deployable we will have to push everyone out the door quickly. A whole bunch of waivers will be granted for stuff that was non-waverable in prior conflicts |
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Posted: 4/17/2024 11:13:02 AM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryQuoted: We feel the same way about them. Embrace Machiavellian, to the victor goes the spoils. Man I was excited when I was younger reading Sun Tzu, Clauschwitz & Machiavelli but a couple hours in I was like fuck this is a long read |
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Posted: 4/17/2024 11:14:15 AM EDT
[#41]
Quote HistoryQuoted: And the XX chromosome types who identify as XY will suddenly become pregnant and non deployable. Even though present regs state those transitioning are non deployable we will have to push everyone out the door quickly. A whole bunch of waivers will be granted for studs that was non-waverable in prior conflicts Worse yet they’ll all return post war to try and turn the military back into the DMV. For Democrats the DOD is just a jobs program |
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Posted: 4/17/2024 11:18:23 AM EDT
[#42]
Quote HistoryQuoted: China White papers a decade ago were pushing 30 days or less seize Taiwan but since Ukraine China thinking in some of their circles has shifted to long war speculation. Ultimately we’ll only know once things happen. Is Biden in the White House? Does Japan support Taiwan? Does China send the DPRK into South Korea? Does China anti sub stuff work or suck ass? We’ll just have to see I made a bunch of my Company grades read those: Very few had even heard the term “near peer adversary” and were of the mindset that all future wars would be like GWOT and we would have significant overmatch in pretty much everything. How many generations has it been since we didn’t have air superiority, rapid CASEVAC, and an uninterrupted logistics system? Awareness is settling in but that alone won’t make us ready |
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Posted: 4/17/2024 11:20:52 AM EDT
[#43]
Quote HistoryQuoted: The least expensive way for the US to keep the PLA from attacking Taiwan is to gift 40 nukes to Taiwan. Doing so gives dictator Xi a dilemma of whether the juice is worth the squeeze. Dictator Xi has to determine if his regime will survive being overthrown once 40 cities on the mainland disappear. or a sure way to get Taiwan nuked |
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Posted: 4/17/2024 11:24:30 AM EDT
[#44]
Quote HistoryQuoted: I made a bunch of my Company grades read those: Very few had even heard the term “near peer adversary” and were of the mindset that all future wars would be like GWOT and we would have significant overmatch in pretty much everything. How many generations has it been since we didn’t have air superiority, rapid CASEVAC, and an uninterrupted logistics system? Awareness is settling in but that alone won’t make us ready Resiliency and Clint Eastwood “adapt and overcome” will be key |
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Posted: 4/17/2024 11:28:47 AM EDT
[#45]
Semper Gumby
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Posted: 4/17/2024 11:30:25 AM EDT
[#46]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Semper Gumby I’m so exhausted from non stop airport, train and driving travel I forgot improvise  Improvise - Overcome - Adapt |
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Posted: 4/17/2024 11:30:42 AM EDT
[#47]
Quote HistoryQuoted: China White papers a decade ago were pushing 30 days or less seize Taiwan but since Ukraine China thinking in some of their circles has shifted to long war speculation. Ultimately we’ll only know once things happen. Is Biden in the White House? Does Japan support Taiwan? Does China send the DPRK into South Korea? Does China anti sub stuff work or suck ass? We’ll just have to see The most honest thing we can say is we won't know til it happens and then the psyops will determine truth. |
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Posted: 4/17/2024 11:32:12 AM EDT
[#48]
Quote HistoryQuoted: And the XX chromosome types who identify as XY will suddenly become pregnant and non deployable. Even though present regs state those transitioning are non deployable we will have to push everyone out the door quickly. A whole bunch of waivers will be granted for stuff that was non-waverable in prior conflicts Return to WWI execution for desertion. |
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Posted: 4/17/2024 11:33:02 AM EDT
[#49]
Quote HistoryQuoted: Man I was excited when I was younger reading Sun Tzu, Clauschwitz & Machiavelli but a couple hours in I was like fuck this is a long read It's annoying. Like the Great Books of the Western World. |
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Posted: 4/17/2024 11:34:18 AM EDT
[#50]
And in the end it doesn't even matter because only the force you can bring today matters. Nobody will be persuaded by the scribbles of the long dead.
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