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Posted: 4/27/2024 3:48:26 PM EDT
[#1]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By R0N: The loader on that 05, needs to ball up his hand like a fist instead of grabbing the base of cartridge like that, if he keeps doing that he will eventually loose the tips of his fingers. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By R0N: Originally Posted By Prime: The first twenty seconds of this is worth it. On brand for Azov.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VzhljG6lVtIThe loader on that 05, needs to ball up his hand like a fist instead of grabbing the base of cartridge like that, if he keeps doing that he will eventually loose the tips of his fingers. I was wondering what you thought of how they've come along since the early days. Not 100% yet I guess  |
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Posted: 4/27/2024 3:53:02 PM EDT
[#2]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Prime: I was wondering what you thought of how they've come along since the early days. Not 100% yet I guess They are actually improving, unfortunately so are the Russians. |
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Posted: 4/27/2024 3:58:17 PM EDT
[#3]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By lycurgus: Regarding Putin's opinion that the collapse of the Soviet Union was a geopolitical tragedy, I have to infer from various statements made by Western conservative/right wing elements that they agree with Putin. Also, it appears that these conservative/right wing elements may hold the notion that it would not necessarily be a bad outcome if Russia returned to a state of control over its Near Abroad analogous to the control exercised by the Soviet Union. This is very baffling to me... I've NEVER heard anyone (besides Putin) claim that the breakup of the USSR was a geo-tragedy. I have heard folks say (me included) that the 1st world was a better place pre 1990 and the peace was squandered by too many idiots experimenting with socialism, marxism, or pacifism. Now we are seeing the results. |
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Posted: 4/27/2024 4:05:07 PM EDT
[#4]
I think it is necessary to add democrats or leftists as a whole to this axis of evil. They have been at the forefront of destroying the west. The other three are just putting up rookie numbers.
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Posted: 4/27/2024 4:11:15 PM EDT
[#5]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: I've NEVER heard anyone (besides Putin) claim that the breakup of the USSR was a geo-tragedy. I have heard folks say (me included) that the 1st world was a better place pre 1990 and the peace was squandered by too many idiots experimenting with socialism, marxism, or pacifism. Now we are seeing the results. That's where the discontinuity lies - there was never a peace, just a sense in the west that we could afford to stop working so hard, and the lazy need no encouragement. |
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Posted: 4/27/2024 4:11:18 PM EDT
[#6]
   
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Posted: 4/27/2024 4:17:53 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Prime]
[#7]
 Moar threads
BRDMs are basically armoured cars, mostly intended for reconnaissance, sometimes as a weapons platform. @Jonpy99 has had a count of the satellite photos of them, not that many were removed from storage, which ties in with not seeing many amongst the Russian losses. There are some caveats, many that are left are visibly broken, and some of the bases only have photos many months or more old. Of the vehicle types he has looked at we can summarise in one of 2 categories: Category A, most, possibly all usable hulls have now been removed from storage: MT-LBs BTR-50s BMDs, Category B, few removed, but little sign of them being used in large numbers in Ukraine. MT-LBu BTDMs We still await the numbers on BMPs and BTR-60/70/80s, there may be a delay for that. my instinct is that BTR-60 and BTR-70 will be in Catagry-B only small numbers have gone, and BTR-80s will be in Category A almost all gone. but the big question is the BMP-s, I think that, unfortunately there are probably reasonable numbers of these at least for the time being. This is a pity as they make up over half of all Russian IFV/APC/AFVs at least in the loss numbers. but getting a feel for how many are left, how many of those are broken and how many BMP-1s vs BMP-2s will be important.
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Posted: 4/27/2024 4:18:26 PM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By jwnc: New Axis China GDP - $18T (if you believe Chinese economic data) Russia GDP - $2T (about Italy, but with 4x the population) Iran GDP - $0.5T Total - $20.5T Old Allies US GDP - $30T EU GDP - $15T UK GDP - $3.5T Japan GDP - $4T SK GDP - $1.7T Canada GDP - $2.5T Australia GDP $1.8T Total - $58.5T Granted, Canada and the EU are pretty wobbly (less so since the RUS/UKR war) and if the commies continue to make progress in the US, we are in trouble, but that is true regardless if there is a New Axis or not. The New Axis doesn't have the economic power to affect the Allies too much nor the military power to achieve anything by war, as clearly demonstrated by the Russian incompetence in UKR. They can only cause mischief around the edges, but that they do very well. As long as Dem/commie/MSM narrative is not taken seriously, they will remain fringe players. Unfortunately, they are having great success at least in some parts of the US. GDP and tech is pretty much our attributes. The Axis has populations to spare and willing to die on command. And being authoritarians, they can act fast and be decisive and keep going despite losses and obvious incompetence. |
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Posted: 4/27/2024 4:20:49 PM EDT
[#9]
🐷 Katsapas captured Berdychi, hanging their rag on the western outskirts of the village
⚔️ Fighting to the west of Berdychi continues. The Defense Forces are conducting rearguard battles. It is impossible to maintain the line of confrontation in its current form, therefore the withdrawal from the northern outskirts of the village is a forced measure. But the most important thing is the preservation of personnel. 📍 
Video
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Posted: 4/27/2024 4:23:58 PM EDT
[#10]
  
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Posted: 4/27/2024 4:36:49 PM EDT
[#11]
Due to sanctions, Chinese banks process payments to Russians manually
Chinese banks continue to delay and return foreign trade payments from Russian companies under the threat of secondary sanctions from the United States, writes Reuters. “Even ordinary payments do not go through, money leaves Russia, and in China the correspondent bank delays the payment and does not allow further payment. The money is not even returned for sanctioned goods,” said a source in one of the importing companies. Each payment from Chinese banks, according to their clients, is processed manually, and they request transport documents from counterparties of Russian companies. If in these documents the Chinese bank identifies Russian railway carriers under sanctions, the payment is returned, the source added. “There are many entrepreneurs who simply go from bank to bank and open current accounts. If their payment doesn’t go through, they go to the next one,” said the settlement consultant. Settlements continue to operate through the subsidiaries of large Chinese banks located in Russia. “But these are options only for the largest companies in our country... They don’t even respond to small companies,” says one of the Russian importers. Chinese banks have made it so difficult to check Russian counterparties that they even request information about minority ultimate owners; all compliance procedures take months, all this time the money hangs around and goods are not delivered. “Therefore, many have switched to using payment agents and are creating chains of temporary companies for settlements. This is a working scheme, and payments are processed faster,” the importer said. Chinese banks have the fewest questions about payment agents with beneficiaries from the PRC, sources say. Intermediaries can be from Hong Kong, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, the UAE and other jurisdictions friendly to Russia. https://t.me/moscowtimes_ru/21842 Welt: Ukraine stopped peace negotiations with Russia in 2022 due to its new demands Kyiv refused to continue peace negotiations with Moscow after the meeting in Istanbul in 2022 due to the fact that Russia put forward additional conditions for ending the war, Welt writes with reference to the draft agreement. Among them was the demand to make Russian the second official language in Ukraine, to cancel mutual sanctions and to stop lawsuits in international courts. The publication revealed details of the draft agreement dated April 15, 2022. It followed from it that Moscow and Kyiv were close to concluding peace, since they agreed on the main points. Only a few points remained unresolved, which were to be personally discussed by Presidents Vladimir Putin and Vladimir Zelensky that same month. In particular, controversy was caused by the question of the permissible number of personnel and military equipment for the Ukrainian army. At the same time, Ukraine agreed to maintain neutrality without joining any military alliances, including NATO; renounced the production and acquisition of nuclear weapons and expressed its readiness to legally prohibit the concepts of “fascism,” “Nazism,” and “aggressive nationalism.” In turn, Russia agreed that the permanent members of the UN Security Council - Great Britain, China, the USA and France - provide Ukraine with security guarantees, subject to their non-extension to Crimea and Sevastopol. https://t.me/moscowtimes_ru/21848 |
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Posted: 4/27/2024 4:46:49 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Prime]
[#12]
Not all lessons from Ukraine will apply to NATO militaries, but this is one that will. Russian Orlan ISR UAVs are not very sophisticated but they are cheap and easy to produce. That means Russia produces them in large numbers and they are expendable. But many of the current countermeasures are more expensive and scarcer. So Ukraine generally can't launch SHORAD or MANPADS to shoot them down, giving Russia persistent ISR coverage behind Ukrainian lines. MANPADS also are not optimized for defeating them. Developing cost-effective countermeasures should be a priority.
"Orlan" is one of the main Russian reconnaissance drones in the war against Ukraine Among scientists and analysts studying changes within the russian army and their weapon systems during the military conflicts of recent decades, 2014 is considered a turning point. It can be argued that as early as 2008, after the invasion of Georgia, the russian invaders drew conclusions in preparation for further expansion against their neighbours. Alongside the adoption of the new military doctrine, they realised the opportunities of the intense use of aerial reconnaissance. 1/ 
Secondly, the russians are exporting “Orlans” which may also indicate that production has been running in one way or another. As for the production itself, today, it is known that the russians are able to produce an aerodynamic body without any problems. (Like us, by the way.) Another issue is its “filling” with the components, such as electronics, chips, communication, payload (camera modules, etc.), anti-jamming, and more. Despite Western sanctions, the russians somehow continue receiving components on which this equipment depends. From the open sources, one can learn that the UAVs contain components from the U.S., Japan, China, and a number of European countries. However, it is necessary to understand that the crucial thing is the possibility of using this equipment for its intended purpose. 9/
Proven by years of experience A lot can be said about the pros and cons of this UAS. However, a few facts are indisputable: ● "Orlan-10" and its other modifications should be considered a massive and fairly effective solution which, at various stages of the confrontation between the russian federation and Ukraine, either gave the russians a complete advantage in the aerial reconnaissance component, or did not allow to lose it. ● The enemy has a significant number of the “Orlan” UAVs and vast opportunities for their use both at the frontline and in Ukraine’s rear. ● The use of “Orlan” type UAVs by the russians in Ukraine (since 2014) and in Syria allowed them to gain a lot of practical experience in such application which was significantly expanded during the full-scale war against Ukraine. This enables russians to make not only military but also engineering decisions. This is especially important given the fact that the enemy possesses large resources and an extensive system of companies and design bureaus that implement and improve these solutions, often quite quickly. ● There are still no sufficiently effective solutions to protect Ukraine against the activity of these UAVs and the consequences of this activity. 13/
So, it can be said we are rather dealing with the "working horse" of the aggressor's army, not with an object for jokes. Despite the certain obsolescence and dependence of "Orlan" on Western-made components, it continues performing significant work on the frontline and in the rear, posing a great danger to us. It is a multi-purpose product, capable of correcting the enemy’s artillery on the battlefield, directing missiles and drones at our infrastructure, logistics and military facilities in the rear, as well as carrying out EW/ES tasks. The mass character allows the russians to keep “Orlan” in their arsenal as a "staff" UAS that fits into the system and forms the system itself. This enables maintenance standardisation, operators training, and, at the same time, prevents shortages in UAVs. No UAV of this kind in Ukraine is so massive in numbers. 16/
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Posted: 4/27/2024 4:56:11 PM EDT
[#13]
Subscribed.
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Posted: 4/27/2024 5:06:23 PM EDT
[#14]
https://twitter.com/sambendett/status/1674765199679561729 
https://twitter.com/sambendett/status/1764635627444711777
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Posted: 4/27/2024 5:25:44 PM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By ITCHY-FINGER: GDP and tech is pretty much our attributes. The Axis has populations to spare and willing to die on command. And being authoritarians, they can act fast and be decisive and keep going despite losses and obvious incompetence. Am I mistaken or is Europe just not terribly interested in really stepping up? |
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Posted: 4/27/2024 5:27:02 PM EDT
[#16]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 7empest: It isn't just the left doing that. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By 7empest: Originally Posted By Saltwater-Hillbilly: For the same reason the Left is throwing all of our traditional overseas allies under the bus in favor of the Iranians, Venezuelans, various anti-American third worlders, and so forth. They just want someone to lay down the law so they can concentrate on their domestic "Real" enemies. Foreign affairs are hard and always have been. In the British Empire era, it required a huge fleet with roughly 90% of their ground combat forces being stationed (and often trained and recruited) outside the British Isles. In the competition for domestic power (for both sides), anything overseas is just a distraction, and empowering some foreign tyranny to "keep things under control" is sort of an "Easy" button. Add in the emerging view on both sides that every aspect of the government they don't control is illegitimate and/or evil, and if the other side is for it I have to be against it since there is a "catch" where they will get more power out of the deal (which, given the proclivities of our so-called "governing class" is often a justified concern), and we enter a death spiral where perverse incentives overcome objective facts. America is being driven by it's extremes towards a "low-trust" society, and our "elites" are to compromised and clueless to even identify this as an issue, let alone do anything to fix it.  It isn't just the left doing that. I was addressing elements of the so-called "right" and how little they differ from the "left" they claim to oppose. Maybe I wasn't very clear on this, but in my defense, it WAS a response!
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Posted: 4/27/2024 5:27:53 PM EDT
[#17]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Prime: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GMLpK_eWIAAEPo5?format=jpg&name=large
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GML5VZwXoAA1VDc?format=jpg&name=large https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GML5VZrWAAAxJ7-?format=jpg&name=large https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GML5VZsWsAA9hcb?format=jpg&name=large https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GMLtF0iWoAE2Ovf?format=png&name=900x900
Damn looks like another bubba'd up AA-10D used based on the large IR signature and slow speed due to being used in a surface to air role. |
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Posted: 4/27/2024 5:44:52 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Capta]
[#18]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Prime: Due to sanctions, Chinese banks process payments to Russians manually Chinese banks continue to delay and return foreign trade payments from Russian companies under the threat of secondary sanctions from the United States, writes Reuters. “Even ordinary payments do not go through, money leaves Russia, and in China the correspondent bank delays the payment and does not allow further payment. The money is not even returned for sanctioned goods,” said a source in one of the importing companies. Each payment from Chinese banks, according to their clients, is processed manually, and they request transport documents from counterparties of Russian companies. If in these documents the Chinese bank identifies Russian railway carriers under sanctions, the payment is returned, the source added. “There are many entrepreneurs who simply go from bank to bank and open current accounts. If their payment doesn’t go through, they go to the next one,” said the settlement consultant. Settlements continue to operate through the subsidiaries of large Chinese banks located in Russia. “But these are options only for the largest companies in our country... They don’t even respond to small companies,” says one of the Russian importers. Chinese banks have made it so difficult to check Russian counterparties that they even request information about minority ultimate owners; all compliance procedures take months, all this time the money hangs around and goods are not delivered. “Therefore, many have switched to using payment agents and are creating chains of temporary companies for settlements. This is a working scheme, and payments are processed faster,” the importer said. Chinese banks have the fewest questions about payment agents with beneficiaries from the PRC, sources say. Intermediaries can be from Hong Kong, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, the UAE and other jurisdictions friendly to Russia. https://t.me/moscowtimes_ru/21842 Welt: Ukraine stopped peace negotiations with Russia in 2022 due to its new demands Kyiv refused to continue peace negotiations with Moscow after the meeting in Istanbul in 2022 due to the fact that Russia put forward additional conditions for ending the war, Welt writes with reference to the draft agreement. Among them was the demand to make Russian the second official language in Ukraine, to cancel mutual sanctions and to stop lawsuits in international courts. The publication revealed details of the draft agreement dated April 15, 2022. It followed from it that Moscow and Kyiv were close to concluding peace, since they agreed on the main points. Only a few points remained unresolved, which were to be personally discussed by Presidents Vladimir Putin and Vladimir Zelensky that same month. In particular, controversy was caused by the question of the permissible number of personnel and military equipment for the Ukrainian army. At the same time, Ukraine agreed to maintain neutrality without joining any military alliances, including NATO; renounced the production and acquisition of nuclear weapons and expressed its readiness to legally prohibit the concepts of “fascism,” “Nazism,” and “aggressive nationalism.” In turn, Russia agreed that the permanent members of the UN Security Council - Great Britain, China, the USA and France - provide Ukraine with security guarantees, subject to their non-extension to Crimea and Sevastopol. https://t.me/moscowtimes_ru/21848 Sounds like China has found the perfect excuse to squeeze more alpha out of Russia. Chinese cooperation has also been limited but real. Looked at from the hypothesis of “the West’s strategy is to grind Russia to powder”, China’s actions are IMO consistent with that strategy while benefitting themselves independently. Lets say that China is providing a small to moderate level of assistance with the Russian DIB. What is the effect? Russia is encouraged to think there could be more, that their gambit against NATO can last longer, and keeps shoveling men and material resources into the Ukrainian meatgrinder. Those resources don’t appear out of thin air; there is a huge opportunity cost. Russia is rebuilding completely outdated crap as fast as possible instead of developing/building their next generation. They lose even more men they already couldn’t afford to lose. The Ukrainians nibble away at their energy infrastructure and strategic assets. They drive themselves further under Chinese fealty. Domestic tensions increase. Ukraine is completely irrelevant to China except as a meatgrinder. If China does more, like giving Russia the resources to win, then Russian losses are limited, and Russia’s position is strengthened. The last thing China wants right now is a revitalized Russia. They’re stringing Putin along because Putin has no other options. NATO isn’t being hurt by the war, NATO is being strengthened by the war, and I think the Chinese understand this very well. My opinion is now even stronger that both China and the West are intent on leading Russia to the point of collapse and then dividing up the spoils. For slightly different reasons, however. Europe wants security and the impossibility of another such war first and resources second. China wants resources and land they lost to Russia. Cui bono? Cui malo? Regarding the second report, I’ll post a “Ukraine the Latest” episode with one of the cowriters of the big article on “the peace deal.” In summary, it’s completely inaccurate to suggest that Russia and Ukraine were “close to a deal” and only had to hammer out a couple of details - whether or not Russia then added more demands. Those “couple of details” were little things like getting the US to agree to a binding direct security arrangement where they agreed to go to war with Russia over Ukraine, which was never going to happen. Plus all sorts of punitive and humiliating demands by Moscow. His interview starts at the 25:00 mark.  Ukraine ‘shoots down’ Russian bomber armed with cruise missiles, Ukraine: The Latest, Podcast |
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Posted: 4/27/2024 6:03:56 PM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Saltwater-Hillbilly: I was addressing elements of the so-called "right" and how little they differ from the "left" they claim to oppose. Maybe I wasn't very clear on this, but in my defense, it WAS a response! Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Saltwater-Hillbilly: Originally Posted By 7empest: Originally Posted By Saltwater-Hillbilly: For the same reason the Left is throwing all of our traditional overseas allies under the bus in favor of the Iranians, Venezuelans, various anti-American third worlders, and so forth. They just want someone to lay down the law so they can concentrate on their domestic "Real" enemies. Foreign affairs are hard and always have been. In the British Empire era, it required a huge fleet with roughly 90% of their ground combat forces being stationed (and often trained and recruited) outside the British Isles. In the competition for domestic power (for both sides), anything overseas is just a distraction, and empowering some foreign tyranny to "keep things under control" is sort of an "Easy" button. Add in the emerging view on both sides that every aspect of the government they don't control is illegitimate and/or evil, and if the other side is for it I have to be against it since there is a "catch" where they will get more power out of the deal (which, given the proclivities of our so-called "governing class" is often a justified concern), and we enter a death spiral where perverse incentives overcome objective facts. America is being driven by it's extremes towards a "low-trust" society, and our "elites" are to compromised and clueless to even identify this as an issue, let alone do anything to fix it. It isn't just the left doing that. I was addressing elements of the so-called "right" and how little they differ from the "left" they claim to oppose. Maybe I wasn't very clear on this, but in my defense, it WAS a response! 100% agree. |
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MN, USA
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Posted: 4/27/2024 6:09:43 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Haub]
[#20]
Hello world. Slava Ukraini
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Posted: 4/27/2024 6:29:39 PM EDT
[#21]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Capta: Sounds like China has found the perfect excuse to squeeze more alpha out of Russia. Chinese cooperation has also been limited but real. Looked at from the hypothesis of “the West’s strategy is to grind Russia to powder”, China’s actions are IMO consistent with that strategy while benefitting themselves independently. Lets say that China is providing a small to moderate level of assistance with the Russian DIB. What is the effect? Russia is encouraged to think there could be more, that their gambit against NATO can last longer, and keeps shoveling men and material resources into the Ukrainian meatgrinder. Those resources don’t appear out of thin air; there is a huge opportunity cost. Russia is rebuilding completely outdated crap as fast as possible instead of developing/building their next generation. They lose even more men they already couldn’t afford to lose. The Ukrainians nibble away at their energy infrastructure and strategic assets. They drive themselves further under Chinese fealty. Domestic tensions increase. Ukraine is completely irrelevant to China except as a meatgrinder. If China does more, like giving Russia the resources to win, then Russian losses are limited, and Russia’s position is strengthened. The last thing China wants right now is a revitalized Russia. They’re stringing Putin along because Putin has no other options. NATO isn’t being hurt by the war, NATO is being strengthened by the war, and I think the Chinese understand this very well. My opinion is now even stronger that both China and the West are intent on leading Russia to the point of collapse and then dividing up the spoils. For slightly different reasons, however. Europe wants security and the impossibility of another such war first and resources second. China wants resources and land they lost to Russia. Cui bono? Cui malo? Regarding the second report, I’ll post a “Ukraine the Latest” episode with one of the cowriters of the big article on “the peace deal.” In summary, it’s completely inaccurate to suggest that Russia and Ukraine were “close to a deal” and only had to hammer out a couple of details - whether or not Russia then added more demands. Those “couple of details” were little things like getting the US to agree to a binding direct security arrangement where they agreed to go to war with Russia over Ukraine, which was never going to happen. Plus all sorts of punitive and humiliating demands by Moscow. His interview starts at the 25:00 mark. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NktxWD2oC80Good add. Yeah, even in the Moscow Times version it's pretty easy to see how Russia could make that unresolved issue a dealbreaker. Also interesting is their apparent confidence that the UNSC would be no problem for them whatsoever. |
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Posted: 4/27/2024 6:32:58 PM EDT
[#22]
 
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Posted: 4/27/2024 6:34:24 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Capta]
[#23]
Found some extremely interesting info regarding German nuclear power-plants and (hypothetically) the Russian energy blackmail vector.
As you may know, Germany decided to shut down its nuclear power industry in the wake of Fukushima. After Russia invaded Ukraine, the German govt commissioned an expert panel to determine whether the remaining three plants could be reopened and operated safely. That commission determined that it was safe, subject to getting new fuel rods ordered and some safety checks, and wrote as much in their report. Then an unknown party or parties within the German energy ministry actually rewrote the report to read that it was NOT possible or safe to operate the plants long term. The last plants were shut down in April of 2023. Things that make you go “hmmmmmm…..” DW News link.  Scandal over Nuclear Phase-Out in Germany: What We Know |
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Posted: 4/27/2024 6:37:40 PM EDT
[#24]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Saltwater-Hillbilly: I was addressing elements of the so-called "right" and how little they differ from the "left" they claim to oppose. Maybe I wasn't very clear on this, but in my defense, it WAS a response! Yea lol don't mind me I r tarded. |
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Posted: 4/27/2024 6:52:30 PM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Prime: Good add. Yeah, even in the Moscow Times version it's pretty easy to see how Russia could make that unresolved issue a dealbreaker. Also interesting is their apparent confidence that the UNSC would be no problem for them whatsoever. Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Prime: Originally Posted By Capta: Sounds like China has found the perfect excuse to squeeze more alpha out of Russia. Chinese cooperation has also been limited but real. Looked at from the hypothesis of “the West’s strategy is to grind Russia to powder”, China’s actions are IMO consistent with that strategy while benefitting themselves independently. Lets say that China is providing a small to moderate level of assistance with the Russian DIB. What is the effect? Russia is encouraged to think there could be more, that their gambit against NATO can last longer, and keeps shoveling men and material resources into the Ukrainian meatgrinder. Those resources don’t appear out of thin air; there is a huge opportunity cost. Russia is rebuilding completely outdated crap as fast as possible instead of developing/building their next generation. They lose even more men they already couldn’t afford to lose. The Ukrainians nibble away at their energy infrastructure and strategic assets. They drive themselves further under Chinese fealty. Domestic tensions increase. Ukraine is completely irrelevant to China except as a meatgrinder. If China does more, like giving Russia the resources to win, then Russian losses are limited, and Russia’s position is strengthened. The last thing China wants right now is a revitalized Russia. They’re stringing Putin along because Putin has no other options. NATO isn’t being hurt by the war, NATO is being strengthened by the war, and I think the Chinese understand this very well. My opinion is now even stronger that both China and the West are intent on leading Russia to the point of collapse and then dividing up the spoils. For slightly different reasons, however. Europe wants security and the impossibility of another such war first and resources second. China wants resources and land they lost to Russia. Cui bono? Cui malo? Regarding the second report, I’ll post a “Ukraine the Latest” episode with one of the cowriters of the big article on “the peace deal.” In summary, it’s completely inaccurate to suggest that Russia and Ukraine were “close to a deal” and only had to hammer out a couple of details - whether or not Russia then added more demands. Those “couple of details” were little things like getting the US to agree to a binding direct security arrangement where they agreed to go to war with Russia over Ukraine, which was never going to happen. Plus all sorts of punitive and humiliating demands by Moscow. His interview starts at the 25:00 mark. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NktxWD2oC80Good add. Yeah, even in the Moscow Times version it's pretty easy to see how Russia could make that unresolved issue a dealbreaker. Also interesting is their apparent confidence that the UNSC would be no problem for them whatsoever. The author and interviewer found interesting that Russia was willing to entertain (at least nominally) the idea of external “security guarantees”. However, I think from Russia’s perspective this is in the same vein as previous “security guarantees.” Russia will agree to a nice-sounding but toothless arrangement, demand Ukrainian disarmament, and then wipe their ass with anything that isn’t Article 5. |
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Posted: 4/27/2024 7:12:36 PM EDT
[#26]
 
          
 🔄 The map has been updated! ⚔️ The enemy occupied Berdychi and advanced in Kislivka. Fighting continues in Krasnohorivka and Novokalynovy. 📊 Katsaps control about 80% of Ocheretiny, the remaining villages are in question. 🗺 http://deepstatemap.live 
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Posted: 4/27/2024 7:21:06 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Prime]
[#27]
 🇰🇬🇷🇺 While at the state level in Kyrgyzstan the activities of non-commercial organizations are being banned and new laws are being introduced against Western forces destabilizing the situation inside the country, small officials are continuing the process of derusification. Recently it became known that the State Agency for Public Service and LSG submitted for public discussion the issue of renaming 17 villages and aimags in different regions of the country. According to the initiators of the draft law, this step is aimed at strengthening the national ideology and returning the names widely known in the past and present to ayil aimaks and villages. It is obvious that changing the cover will not help in any way, but rather even vice versa. The documentation has to be changed, index signs and plaques have to be changed, and this is not to mention how much personal data of the residents of these settlements will have to be reissued. There is no benefit from this, but the initiators of this scheme will make money on it. 
Azerbaijan said it is ready to deliver oil products to Kyrgyzstan 27/04/24 14:13 Bishkek, 27.04.24. /News/. Azerbaijan said it is ready to deliver oil products to Kyrgyzstan. Minister of Energy Taalaybek Ibraev told "Kabar" about this. According to him, as part of the state visit initiated by the head of state, negotiations were held with the management of Heydar Aliyev Baku Oil Plant (SOKAR), where the parties discussed the possibility of supplying oil products from Azerbaijan to Kyrgyzstan. "Azerbaijan is one of the largest exporters of oil products. Recently, the Junda oil refinery will start operating in Kyrgyzstan, with an annual consumption of more than 1 million tons of fuel. In this regard, the issues of oil delivery to Kyrgyzstan were discussed with the leadership of SOKAR. In turn, they expressed their readiness to cooperate. We are currently working on the logistics issue," he said. https://kg.kabar.kg/news/azerbaizhan-kyrgyzstanga-munai-produktciialaryn-zhetkir-g-daiar-ekenin-bildirdi/ |
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Posted: 4/27/2024 7:47:26 PM EDT
[#29]
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Posted: 4/27/2024 7:48:44 PM EDT
[#30]
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Posted: 4/27/2024 7:49:50 PM EDT
[#31]
Much is being made of the reports that M1 is being withdrawn from the front line in Ukraine. This is being disputed by the unit.
https://pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/04/27/7453276/ However, one can still take the wrong impression even from the larger discussion. Firstly, if a tank is vulnerable to a drone, what does that say about lighter vehicles like the Bradley which Ukraine is taking all it can get? Secondly, there is the problem of numbers. Ukraine only has two dozen of the things if all five reported as damaged are out of the fight long term. Challenger 2 is similarly not being reported as getting a lot of use these days. This has two knock on effects. Firstly, maintaining the line of supply for the small number of vehicles. Secondly, the lack of reserve depth. If tanks keep getting lost in ones and twos due to attrition regardless of cause, then when there is a useful opportunity to use the fleet en masse, there won't be a masse fleet left to use. As for the drone problem itself, a number of solutions are in trials. Whether Ukraine will be able to field them, especially in sufficient numbers, is an open question. It is a problem which will never go away, but I am confident it is one which is going to go to the level of "mitigated problem" just like missiles, mines, and everything else the tank (and lighter vehicles like IFVs) have been faced with in the past. 
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Posted: 4/27/2024 7:50:22 PM EDT
[Last Edit: AlmightyTallest]
[#32]
2 hrs ago.
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Posted: 4/27/2024 7:51:24 PM EDT
[#33]
1 hr ago.
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Posted: 4/27/2024 7:53:55 PM EDT
[#34]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By JTX23: I think it is necessary to add democrats or leftists as a whole to this axis of evil. They have been at the forefront of destroying the west. The other three are just putting up rookie numbers. I agree 100% but the moderators would stroke out. The US left is very interesting to me. I think they were inspired, possibly even funded, by the Soviets. After the fall of the USSR they gravitated towards green (then climate) movements. Attempted reproachment with Clinton's idiotic reset attempt, "tell Vladimir that I'll have more flexibility after the election," then totally had a very bad breakup some time before Trump probably due to something involving money. Now I think our leftist comrades have latched onto China. It could be a thread of it's own but very few people really understand communists, Marxists, Maoists, and progressives in general. |
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Posted: 4/27/2024 7:58:23 PM EDT
[#35]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest: 1 hr ago.
I’ve noticed several videos where it seems like young people in Russia are having “watch parties”. |
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Posted: 4/27/2024 8:07:12 PM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By stone-age: Am I mistaken or is Europe just not terribly interested in really stepping up? I think some are, some not, but very few have the capabilities to really make a difference I think. The USA is the exception. We have enough to spare but we lack the commitment or the good faith to send what is really needed.. |
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Posted: 4/27/2024 8:11:46 PM EDT
[#37]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By AlmightyTallest:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GMM-5pKXQAAUpYr?format=jpg&name=medium It has been Shaheds ALL DAY today, so…  🔴The Evpatoria area is also loud!! Air defense is working https://t.me/PRAVO_ZN/14552 🔴There is also a shoot down over the sea https://t.me/PRAVO_ZN/14554 🔴Okunevka there are falling debris. There is a small fire https://t.me/PRAVO_ZN/14555 🔴The attack was carried out by ATACMS missiles. All targets were shot down. There are small fires from the debris. But everyone should still be on their guard! Don't ignore worries, maybe not the last one https://t.me/PRAVO_ZN/14557 ⚡️A powerful explosion was heard in Dzhankoy and Dzhankoy district. https://t.me/Crimeanwind/58435 ❗️Four more Ukrainian drones were shot down in the Bryansk region, Governor Alexander Bogomaz said Over the past two hours, 13 enemy drones have unsuccessfully tried to attack the region. https://t.me/PRAVO_ZN/14558 🚨🇷🇺🏴☠️Explosions near Crimea: the enemy is trying to attack targets on the peninsula It is reported about downed targets in the Chernomorsk area. Earlier it was reported about explosions in the Dzhankoy district. RVvoenkor https://t.me/chp_sevastopol/31289 ⚠️All flying ATACMS missiles were shot down 💣 https://t.me/chp_sevastopol/31293 |
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Posted: 4/27/2024 9:25:24 PM EDT
[#38]
Looks like it's getting harder and harder to make payroll.
 
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Posted: 4/27/2024 9:40:33 PM EDT
[#39]
ISW assessment for April 27th.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-27-2024 |
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Posted: 4/27/2024 9:52:09 PM EDT
[#40]
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Posted: 4/27/2024 9:54:42 PM EDT
[#41]
🇺🇦🩺 On Morale, Part II. Much chatter about fraying morale in Ukraine. That’s false. Wrong. A patient of mine proved that recently: He stepped into the clinic the same way every fighter does: a bit harried, his uniform dirty, boots pulling apart at the seams, field jacket with Ukrainian writing I can only sometimes read fast enough to say his name before he sits down. And then he showed me his hand. Swollen, covered in dirt and calluses, unable to make a fist. Nerve damage, likely permanent. And jagged pieces of russian shrapnel buried in his fingers. “My commander is the one who sent me here. I didn’t want to come.” He removed his shirt. Two ugly pockmarks, scars over his right scapula. “I got shot twice last year. My back still hurts.” “We need to get you to a hand surgeon. But if you can’t hold your weapon, I think you’ll be discharged.” “Ok.” And then a vacant, resigned look. Empty. Tears welled in the corner of his eyes. My arm fell awkwardly around his shoulder, trying to offer a consolation that landed flat and hollow on the exam table. “So that’s it then,” he said. He rose, shook my hand, and walked out. Our interpreter said to me: “He’s a Day 1. He’s been a machine gunner since Day 1.”
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Posted: 4/27/2024 10:01:57 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Capta]
[#42]
20+ min English-language feature on the Battle of Vuhledar last year
Awesome kamikaze vid! Kamikaze attack run in the face of tracer fire, including a last-instant hit. Appears to hit target anyway. Drone flyover of wrecked Russian vehicles around Avdiivka. BRUTAL drone drops on two Russians. BRUTAL. NSFW. Ukrainian source claims that Cubans fighting for Russia executed their Russian commander “for regular humiliation, beatings and confiscation of wages from guest workers from Latin America.” Series of Kamikaze hits on Russian troops and vehicles UA kamikaze hits Russian Kamaz truck, which tries to flee on fire UA kamikaze strike kills Russian drone operator. And, conveniently, extremely close to a graveyard. Although I doubt they want his company. British estimates of Russian losses. Another UA fixed-wing kamikaze hit on on Russian truck, east bank of Kherson. Series of Kamikaze hits on Russian transport/loafs on the east bank of Kherson Repeated kamikaze strikes on Russian positions in an apartment building. Bradley doing a hot medevac mission, two KIA/WIAs seen Two direct kamikaze hits on Russians and two probable on vehickes. Article in German about the increasingly uncovered ties between Russia and AFD. Translation below. Translation: More and more links between the AfD and Russia are being uncovered. According to a report in “Der Spiegel”, the Kremlin has drawn up a paper on how the AfD could become the strongest party. The Thuringian state leader Höcke is said to have used it almost verbatim. According to a media report, the Russian government discussed the future of the AfD at a strategy meeting a year and a half ago and subsequently drew up a “manifesto” with theses on German domestic policy. The meeting in early September 2022 in the Kremlin was about “developing a new concept for the Alternative for Germany party”, according to Der Spiegel, citing a note from a Western intelligence agency. According to the report, the “manifesto” painted a gloomy picture of Germany, particularly its economic and social situation. It also spoke of an increasing division in the country. “Uneducated politicians who are unable to calculate the consequences of their decisions have dragged Germany into a conflict with Russia, a natural ally of our country and our people,” the paper reads. The aim was to increase the AfD's poll ratings “and achieve a majority in elections at all levels”, reports Der Spiegel. Even renaming the party to “United Germany” or “German Unity” is said to have been on the table. The Kremlin representatives apparently also had a coalition partner in mind. The Left Party was explicitly mentioned as a possible partner. At the time, Sahra Wagenknecht's alliance had not yet split from the party. According to the findings of the unnamed intelligence service, the order was placed in September 2022 by one of Russian President Vladimir Putin's closest confidants. The deputy head of the presidential administration, Sergei Kiriyenko, passed the order on to Tatyana Matveeva, head of department in the presidential administration. As research by the “Washington Post” this year has shown, she is responsible for the propaganda units for Europe. It is unclear what happened to the paper after it was written and whether the AfD was aware of its creation. Inquiries from Der Spiegel remained unanswered. What is interesting, however, is that the current AfD lead candidate for the state election in Thuringia, Björn Höcke, gave a speech in Gera in October 2022. According to the report, content from the “manifesto” was “sometimes almost word for word”. When confronted with this, Höcke simply replied: “Same does not mean exactly same.” The AfD did not comment on this. Meanwhile, further details have also emerged in connection with the allegations of accepting money from Russia against AfD member of the Bundestag and European list runner-up Petr Bystron. He is said to have admitted to the party executive that he “accepted small packages from the pro-Russian media manager Artem Martshevskiy”, reports Der Spiegel, citing participants in the meeting. Martshevskiy is said to have been responsible for the content of the Russia-friendly platform “Voice of Europe” and to have maintained contacts with European politicians. According to Der Spiegel, Bystron denied that there was any money in the parcels - but he did not say what the parcels contained. When asked by Der Spiegel, Bystron spoke of a “campaign” that was to be “kept alive” by the media until the election. |
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Posted: 4/27/2024 11:02:17 PM EDT
[#43]
Looks like the current maladministration is trying to keep the doors open on trying to "work" with Putin. Between Russia and Iran, why are we trying to kiss up to these clowns?IC Determines Putin not involved in Navalnys Death
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Posted: 4/27/2024 11:24:15 PM EDT
[#44]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Saltwater-Hillbilly: Looks like the current maladministration is trying to keep the doors open on trying to "work" with Putin. Between Russia and Iran, why are we trying to kiss up to these clowns?IC Determines Putin not involved in Navalnys Death It could be a literally true statement. What if Putin himself is already dead and the security services are running the country using his doubles to front them? |
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Posted: 4/27/2024 11:33:55 PM EDT
[#45]
Subscribed !
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Posted: 4/27/2024 11:58:30 PM EDT
[Last Edit: Capta]
[#46]
Interesting and IMO entertaining talk by Timothy Snyder on Ukrainian/English mutual cultural history and interchange, Tolkien, the Orcs, and so on. Yes the Ukrainians really do call Russians “Orcs” among other things. Great oddball change of pace if you have an hour-plus.
 Wonder Woman and the Orcs: Ukrainian History and Western Fables. Keynote by Timothy Snyder |
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Posted: 4/28/2024 12:10:20 AM EDT
[#47]
A pretty good discussion on the Ivanov situation and some of it's potential implications:
Top Aide to Russian Defense Minister Arrested for Corruption and Treason |
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Posted: 4/28/2024 12:12:26 AM EDT
[#48]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Capta: It could be a literally true statement. What if Putin himself is already dead and the security services are running the country using his doubles to front them? Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Capta: Originally Posted By Saltwater-Hillbilly: Looks like the current maladministration is trying to keep the doors open on trying to "work" with Putin. Between Russia and Iran, why are we trying to kiss up to these clowns?IC Determines Putin not involved in Navalnys Death It could be a literally true statement. What if Putin himself is already dead and the security services are running the country using his doubles to front them? Possible. I had kind of discounted the idea that Putin is actually ill or already dead, but it is a distinct possibility! |
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Posted: 4/28/2024 12:43:45 AM EDT
[Last Edit: Capta]
[#49]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Saltwater-Hillbilly: Possible. I had kind of discounted the idea that Putin is actually ill or already dead, but it is a distinct possibility! Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Saltwater-Hillbilly: Originally Posted By Capta: Originally Posted By Saltwater-Hillbilly: Looks like the current maladministration is trying to keep the doors open on trying to "work" with Putin. Between Russia and Iran, why are we trying to kiss up to these clowns?IC Determines Putin not involved in Navalnys Death It could be a literally true statement. What if Putin himself is already dead and the security services are running the country using his doubles to front them? Possible. I had kind of discounted the idea that Putin is actually ill or already dead, but it is a distinct possibility! This is the last “serious” reporting on the issue. I did a decent search and found just repetition of old allegations since then. No real speculation about his health either. October 2023, Japanese team claims there are three distinct Putins, assuming one of them was the real Putin. November 2023 rumor that Putin died and Patrushev runs Russia. Then there’s the handshake thing, which though played for laughs is a bit odd.  Putin's Missed Handshakes |
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Posted: 4/28/2024 1:00:24 AM EDT
[#50]
Quote HistoryOriginally Posted By Saltwater-Hillbilly: A pretty good discussion on the Ivanov situation and some of it's potential implications: Top Aide to Russian Defense Minister Arrested for Corruption and Treason I do think that it is directed ultimately at Shoigu, but IMO it could be to take him out directly (after Ivanov gives him up to save himself), or it could be giving Shoigu an object lesson to play ball on something - or else. So if Shoigu survives another month in power, I wouldn’t necessarily eliminate him as the target of the lesson. The rest of the allegations about the Army getting Russia into Ukraine I think are completely false and FSB disinfo to shift blame. |
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