Hello, fellow investors,

20 years ago, I investing in a then-nimble company named Apple. Little did I know, I was riding the cusp of a monumental disruption. Apple's launch of the iPhone in 2007 was a masterstroke in technological convergence, reshaping not just telecommunications but almost every aspect of modern life.  The list of industries disrupted is long.

Fast forward to today, while Apple continues to innovate, the baton of disruption seems to be passing to new sectors and technologies. This is where I turn to Tony Seba's compelling framework on how 'Clean Disruption' will overturn industries like energy, transportation, and food by 2030.



Seba argues that the convergence of technologies such as solar energy, electric vehicles, and autonomous driving, coupled with innovative business models, will lead to a significantly different world. He suggests that the precipitous cost declines in these technologies will make them more accessible and superior to the existing technology, leading to a rapid adoption similar to the smartphone revolution.  So far, it seems like he’s more right than wrong.

The implications of Seba's forecast are profound. As investors, understanding and identifying the next wave of disruptive technologies and companies is crucial. It's not just about technology for its own sake, but the ability to envision the economic and societal transformations it heralds. From battery technology to AI-driven healthcare, the opportunities are as vast.

While I recognize the compelling nature of Tony predictions in sectors like EV, Energy, and AI, I maintain a healthy skepticism, particularly towards the extent of his forecasts in the food and fermentation industry. Seba's work suggests a sweeping transformation, however, it's crucial to acknowledge the complexities and unpredictable nature of market forces, regulatory environments, and consumer behavior which might affect the pace and direction of these disruptions.

I want to use this tread to explore disruption investment opportunities.  As with all past distractions, there will be many losers and winners, presenting plenty of opportunity.

Surveying the current investment landscape, Tesla emerges as a compelling investment opportunity. It's uniquely positioned in multiple sectors, notably in EVs, AI (Optimus), energy storage, and potentially autonomous driving technology.

Here are several facets where Tesla mirrors Apple's path and is poised as a key player in multiple disruptive technologies:

Visionary Leadership: Like Apple had Steve Jobs, Tesla has Elon Musk. Both are/were relentless, charismatic leaders pushing the boundaries of innovation. Their vision extends beyond products, aiming to revolutionize entire industries.

Ecosystem Strategy: Apple created a seamless ecosystem with hardware, software, and services. Tesla is not just an electric vehicle manufacturer; it's creating an ecosystem with its cars, charging network, solar panels, and energy storage systems, all interconnected through technology.

Brand Loyalty and Prestige: Apple's brand became a status symbol, intertwined with quality and innovation. Tesla has similarly cultivated a strong brand identity and devoted customer base.

Disruptive Innovation: Just as the iPhone redefined telecommunications, Tesla is at the forefront of disrupting multiple sectors:
   - Electric Vehicles (EVs)
   - Energy Storage and Generation
   - Autonomous Driving
   - Software Integration: Tesla's over-the-air updates and integrated dashboard redefine the driving experience.
   - AI:  Robo Taxis and Optimus are potential future disruptions that we can’t ignore.

The skepticism surrounding Tesla today mirrors the skepticism Apple faced in the early 2000s. Several factors contribute to the criticism and doubt:

Market Saturation and Competition: Just as Apple faced intense competition from established tech giants in the early 2000s, Tesla is now facing a surge in competition from legacy automakers and new EV startups. Critics argue that as the market becomes saturated, Tesla's dominant position and growth potential may diminish.

Valuation Concerns: Both Apple and Tesla have experienced periods of skyrocketing stock prices, leading to debates about overvaluation. For Tesla, the concern is whether its current and future business can justify the high market capitalization.

Technological and Execution Risks: Skeptics of Apple were once concerned about the company's ability to continually innovate and maintain its market edge. Similarly, doubts about Tesla revolve around its ambitious technology goals, like fully autonomous driving and large-scale battery production.

Leadership and Management Style: Just as Steve Jobs's leadership style was both admired and criticized, Elon Musk's approach and public persona have been polarizing. While his vision and drive are lauded, his unconventional behavior and communication, particularly on social media, raise concerns about leadership stability and corporate governance.


Comparing Tesla now to Apple in 2006 offers an insightful look at two companies at pivotal stages of innovation and growth:

By 2006, the iPod was a cultural phenomenon, representing Apple's comeback story. It had transformed Apple's financials and repositioned the company as a leading innovator in consumer electronics.

Apple was also experiencing success with its Mac line, especially after transitioning to Intel processors, which boosted performance and compatibility, attracting more users to the platform.

Apple was beginning to build a more cohesive ecosystem with iTunes and the Mac, setting the stage for future integration with other products like the iPhone.

Apple's success with the iPod and Mac had significantly improved its financial position, with growing revenues, profitability, and a strong balance sheet.

Even before the iPhone, Apple was seen as a company that could innovate and redefine markets, with high expectations for what it might do next.

Tesla Now:

Tesla has established itself as the leader in the electric vehicle market, much like Apple's dominance in digital music with the iPod. Tesla's cars are often seen as the benchmark for electric performance and technology.

Tesla is continuously innovating, expanding beyond just cars to batteries, solar products, and potentially more, akin to Apple's broadening from the iPod into an entire ecosystem.

Just as Apple was building iTunes and its retail presence, Tesla is expanding its Supercharger network, software ecosystem, and manufacturing footprint globally.

Tesla's financials show rapid growth with increasing revenue and improving cash and profitability, though it faces challenges in scaling production and maintaining margins amidst expansion and competition.  Unlike Apple, Tesla own’s much of its manufacturing and has the related capital expenditures to manage.


In 2006, Apple was on the verge of launching the iPhone, which would catalyze its growth to unprecedented levels. Tesla, in its current state, is similarly positioned with the potential for its technologies and products to redefine transportation and energy. Both companies, at these respective points in time, demonstrate the potential of vision and innovation to not only bring a company back from the brink but to push it to lead new market revolutions.

Yes.  I'm bullish on Tesla.

Did you write this whole thing?  I kinda has a ChatGPT vibe.

I think the sector with the largest upside is space.

we are finally getting to the point of commercial takeover of the space instead of bloated .gov

the problem of course is picking a winner and or finding that diamond in the rough (like apple early 2000's) and riding it to greatness.

of course, Tesla/spaceX is a monster in the field at the moment but I keep looking around for stuff in that arena and tossing a few bucks at it on the off chance it pays off in the long run

I agree that picking a winner is not always obvious, and picking losers can be pretty scary. Even when I was convinced Blackberry was doomed, I couldn't short it.

As for winners, Apple is a clear winner with the benefit of hindsight, but at the time it certainly had its share of shorts and bad press. (sound familiar?).  Examples include detractors pointing out market share issues, new competitors always rumored (Windows phone, Facebook phone, etc.). Yet none of this ever became a concern.  In metrics that mattered, Apple was always executing.  One of my favorites was share of profits.  While competitors such as Samsung made new inroads into the market, it came with large losses for them in the early days.  Apple took almost 100% the profits.  (Again, sounds familiar?)

Admittedly, a key strategy is to hold as long as the fundamentals of why I made the investment in the first place remained.  I really didn't pay any attention to the stock price, only focused on the company.


There's no doubt we're facing a number of simultaneous disruptions.  In ten years the winners will be obvious.  I submit that in the EV space (pretty much a mandated transition), Autonomous driving (vision AI, robo taxi), Tesla will certainly be a winner.  If long, today's prices might seen incredibly cheap in 10 years.  In the short term, I think the probabilities indicate a buying opportunity might be coming later this year.

Where is the profitability in space?
Individuals can't really invest directly in the space market - SpaceX is a private company and for the "legacy" aerospace companies space is only a small part of their business.  Putting money into anybody else is high risk financial speculation.  
Space tourism maybe, but the risk and timeline for potential returns are both extremely large.

LOL on the commercial takeover of space - without government subsidization nobody would go to space beyond satellite launches and maybe ballistic flights for rich people.  
Science experiments and exploration are effectively 100% government funded.  Nobody would do it if it wasn't subsidized by uncle sam.  

While true today, that's also predicated on current launch costs.  

I wouldn't say that we know for certain the ways in which space would be commercialized or industrialized if the cost per KG to orbit was dropped by another factor of 10x or 100x and it's worth pondering with SpaceX's wild experiments going on down in Texas right now.

There was a time when things like the Louisiana Purchase and Alaska Purchase were considered controversial.  The things humans would do differently if they could see 1 year, 10 years, or 100 years into the future.

Disruption by it's very nature is very unpredictable.  That's why it's called "disruption".  It's smart to at least consider the seemingly improbable without bias.

Starlink is rumored to be having a public offering this year or next.  they have an amazing product that is global in nature.  it continues to innovate and just added limited sat/cell coverage on their last launch.  I expect starlink is headed to be a monster of a company.

SpaceX is a private company not a .gov entity like NASA with all the cost over runs and risk aversion and bloated bureaucracy that entails.

There are a lot of other things coming in relation to space and yes .gov was the only game in town for decades but that is starting to change and I expect it will accelerate in the years to come.  will .gov still be a major source of revenue in the future? Sure what sector does the .gov not play a funding role to some extent. but the tide is changing and you will lose out if you ignore it or laugh out loud at the possibility.

https://x.com/teslaboomermama/status/1746356813761781927?

[tweet]https://x.com/teslaboomermama/status/1746356813761781927?[/tweet]
Here’s a cool thread on how an analyst missed Apple’s disruption.

Sometimes it's not the industry but the supply chain. Computer companies may not be tops but chips and video are big. I'm not sure on the supply chain for space but there is probably some material, raw mineral or manufacturer that will be heavily used in space and aeronautics.  

Here's a pretty traditional view of Tesla now, and probably on target if disruption doesn't happen.  





Right now, Tesla today is like buying Apple in the iPod days.  Its future as a disrupter isn't assured.  Yeah, they dominate the MP3 player market, rumors of a phone, Mac getting healthier slowly and a main focus. etc.  The market certainly isn't impressed.

Tesla today, might never get Full Self Driving past regulators, leaving those revenues and the AI Taxi business all but dreams. The bot might just be a niche business for very specific tasks with lots of competition. Energy storage will grow, and while they have a good product, they are not without competition.  

Tesla isn't going to disrupt for years.  There will be continued gains in EV sales, energy storage.  They are very exposed to economic winds that could impact those sales.  They have massive capital expenditures underway, unlike most tech businesses.  They have cash to fund this, but could burn it up quickly in a 2008 type situation.  If the market as a whole pulls back, Tesla will drop its share and probably more.

So, all that to say… I think there’s more downside possibilities this next year vs upside.

I’m keeping plenty of powder dry waiting for now.  

We saw some of the downside yesterday.  YoY sales were down and they missed even the bearish estimates.

Doesn’t change anything for the long term.  Still keeping powder dry as there’s probably a greater opportunity for bad news than good for the next few quarters.  I don’t think $100 is out of the question if the fanboys get spooked.


Full Self Driving is looking really good.  I think it’s now 2 - 3 years before level 5.


What’s the saying?  You make money on the buy side.

We usually take Mr. Musk with a grain of salt on the FSD releases.

This new version, WOW, game changer as we're running it in two new Model Y's. Big leap forward.

It obviously does not help sales "now" but as far as moving the needle towards a bigger picture play, it certainly does.


Not related: How do you guys seeing SpaceX and or Starlink playing out? IPO? other? predictions of year?

Crazy day with articles from Reuters and WSJ.  Elon says Reuters is lying about 25k car being cancelled, stock was down 10 for a while, then late in the day Elon says Robotaxi will be unveiled 8/8.  Stock recovered.

Cancelling the 25k in favor of the RoboTaxi makes little sense.  Even if FSD was finished today, it’s going to take years for regulators around the world to fully approve it.  The 25k has a market for a long time.

I think we’re seeing a lot of manipulation by the Street and shorts trying to squeeze retail.  The WSJ article had nothing new and just rehashed Elon distracted mantra.

If we had a crystal ball, what does 2029 look like?

New factories in Mexico and India and probably Italy (Semi).  New battery plants in US by LG Chem just for Tesla.  CATL machines in a Tesla owned plant.  Semi factory at Giga Nevada.  Model 2 / RoboTaxi line at Giga Austin.  FSD level 5 approved in many areas.  Wireless charging.  New mega pack factories. New line at Giga Berlin.  Optimus.  Tesla Texas Lithium plant. Tesla technology licensed to Ford and maybe a few others.
EV mandates will be upon us.

It’s going to be a crazy five years.  Problem is little of it is poised for this year and even next.  While things will definitely be coming into focus more in 2025, sales and profits are going to lag.

Still think a recession is in play and expect Tesla to be beaten down if that plays out.  Cars don’t sell in recessions and we’re already seeing problems across the market.  Depending on the depth of the recession we could also see some of the capital expenditures pushed out.  I don’t think FSD sales are going to make up for weakening EV demand like Tesla hopes and RoboTaxi isn’t going to add much to the bottom line for a few years.