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Posted: 2/13/2017 11:57:40 AM EDT
[#1]
Anyone who thinks that dropping bags of rock behind or in front of this weakened structure is going to save it is really in lala land.
Bags of rock vs. what is coming in the next few weeks and months, is purely for looks. They have to be seen as doing something at this point its moot. This dam will fail,at the spillway and those in charge know full well it will and there is nothing they can do to stop it. The dice have been rolled and anyone with half a brain can read them. |
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Posted: 2/13/2017 11:57:51 AM EDT
[#2]
Where is Moonbeam?
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Posted: 2/13/2017 11:58:09 AM EDT
[#3]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Fair enough. I think that just proves one of the scariest things about this situation, the lack of information coming out and the information that does is so poor/misleading that it just adds more red flags. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
I'm pretty sure that they misspoke, as everyone reporting the situation has been doing with regularity, but I heard that also. I'm pretty sure that the hole they were talking about was on the main spillway, but I'll leave it to someone else to clarify. Fair enough. I think that just proves one of the scariest things about this situation, the lack of information coming out and the information that does is so poor/misleading that it just adds more red flags. Nobody ever accused government of hiring the best, brightest, and most ambitious of people. |
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Posted: 2/13/2017 11:58:41 AM EDT
[#4]
Heard it on Arfcom first...
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Posted: 2/13/2017 11:59:34 AM EDT
[#5]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
At first they were saying they want to protect the transmission towers. I haven't seen those in the latest videos at all. If the KCRA overhead video shown now is recent, then they are still there. |
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Posted: 2/13/2017 11:59:44 AM EDT
[#6]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
So is the dam actually going to fail catastrophically? |
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Posted: 2/13/2017 11:59:57 AM EDT
[#7]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Anyone who thinks that dropping bags of rock behind or in front of this weakened structure is going to save it is really in lala land. Bags of rock vs. what is coming in the next few weeks and months, is purely for looks. They have to be seen as doing something at this point its moot. This dam will fail,at the spillway and those in charge know full well it will and there is nothing they can do to stop it. The dice have been rolled and anyone with half a brain can read them. Maybe. Rocks have been used for millenia to slow the effects of erosion. They can help dissipate the energy of the water coming over the e-spillway instead of the soil taking the full brunt. |
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Posted: 2/13/2017 12:00:05 PM EDT
[#8]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
The problem as I see it is that our nation has not been building this kind of structure for decades and as a result, we don't have a demand for this type of education in our colleges. Those that have the extensive knowledge base have retired long ago. I hate to say it but if we want to hire people with the experience and education needed, we have to look to China. They are the ones currently building large scale water projects. Dams? Rofl... Just wait til you want to decommission aging nuclear infrastructure... |
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Posted: 2/13/2017 12:00:07 PM EDT
[#9]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Thanks for your efforts and vids. Take some time to chill now. I don't think a lot of folks realize you were heading down that close, and it may take some days to remove the bits of shorts and pants that your ass chewed up in full pucker mode. Still, you will not easily live down the new nickname "poopie pants time" Earned it. Will wear with pride. |
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Posted: 2/13/2017 12:00:38 PM EDT
[#10]
Quote Historylooks like a stephen king movie |
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Posted: 2/13/2017 12:00:42 PM EDT
[#11]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
iI'd bet money someone foretold this years ago in a inspection report of the spillway. " cracks in spillway and hollow sound, possible void " is probably sitting on someone's desk waiting for funding. You don't leave documents like that on your desk. They belong on your boss's desk, with a copy of the report and transmittal memo in a safety deposit box. |
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Posted: 2/13/2017 12:01:28 PM EDT
[#12]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Doesn't appear to be. 100% possible if there is a monster storm before summer. Im not joking. I just spent three days staring at that thing. If you can't tell by what happened so far, they have no idea what's going on. |
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Posted: 2/13/2017 12:02:04 PM EDT
[#13]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Still don't know why they don't have some major pumps and pipe on the way to put over near the parking lot and get some major water pumped out and over and down the hill say 300 or 400 yards down to keep erosion at bay.... I'd think every bit of the water they could get over and down would most likely help... I'm talking MAJOR pumps that would run around the clock. The turbines in the dam can only handle 12K of output and use that to produce power to the grid. How much power do you think a hypothetical pump would need to move any appreciable amount of water? Where would this power come from? What MAJOR pumps would you choose and who makes these pumps? Of to google. 
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Posted: 2/13/2017 12:02:07 PM EDT
[#14]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Still don't know why they don't have some major pumps and pipe on the way to put over near the parking lot and get some major water pumped out and over and down the hill say 300 or 400 yards down to keep erosion at bay.... I'd think every bit of the water they could get over and down would most likely help... I'm talking MAJOR pumps that would run around the clock. I'm not sure you understand just how MAJOR of a pump would be required. The ones from Germany they deployed for Katrina are purpose built for post hurricane floor control and do about 4000 GPM each. |
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Posted: 2/13/2017 12:02:46 PM EDT
[#15]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Still don't know why they don't have some major pumps and pipe on the way to put over near the parking lot and get some major water pumped out and over and down the hill say 300 or 400 yards down... I'd think every bit of the water they could get over and down would most likely help... I'm talking MAJOR pumps that would run around the clock.  Please tell me you are joking.
The spillway is running at ~100,000 cfs. The biggest pumps they could fly in there are ~16000gpm which is ~35.6 cfs That's a whopping increase of 0.036%, similar to spitting in the ocean. |
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Posted: 2/13/2017 12:06:59 PM EDT
[#16]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Please tell me you are joking.
The spillway is running at ~100,000 cfs. The biggest pumps they could fly in there are ~16000gpm which is ~35.6 cfs That's a whopping increase of 0.036%, similar to spitting in the ocean. Nah...wasn't joking..i'm no expert in Pumps and sizes....sorry to make you
You the expert ? |
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Posted: 2/13/2017 12:07:10 PM EDT
[#17]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Lol. Not for a few days, maybe next weekend. I might be able to run south to the point where I can see it off in the distance. But I don't actually have a death wish, Believe it or not After the siren episode and the shower I say you did your time in zombie land and time to call it a career! |
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Posted: 2/13/2017 12:07:15 PM EDT
[#18]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Dams? Rofl... Just wait til you want to decommission aging nuclear infrastructure... Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
The problem as I see it is that our nation has not been building this kind of structure for decades and as a result, we don't have a demand for this type of education in our colleges. Those that have the extensive knowledge base have retired long ago. I hate to say it but if we want to hire people with the experience and education needed, we have to look to China. They are the ones currently building large scale water projects. Dams? Rofl... Just wait til you want to decommission aging nuclear infrastructure... Chinese cement famous the world over... 
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Posted: 2/13/2017 12:07:24 PM EDT
[#19]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Please tell me you are joking.
The spillway is running at ~100,000 cfs. The biggest pumps they could fly in there are ~16000gpm which is ~35.6 cfs That's a whopping increase of 0.036%, similar to spitting in the ocean. The minute this happened on Tuesday, we were way past man-made intervention. Ever read the short story 'cold equation' ? This has happened already. |
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Posted: 2/13/2017 12:08:21 PM EDT
[#20]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
100% possible if there is a monster storm before summer. Im not joking. I just spent three days staring at that thing. If you can't tell by what happened so far, they have no idea what's going on. Respectfully, I don't think the main dam will fail, but if the water gets too high over the emergency spillway, that could easily fail. I just saw the current live helicopter video, even with the 100k flow rate, it doesn't appear that the spillway has eroded upstream at all overnight. That's a great sign. |
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Posted: 2/13/2017 12:10:15 PM EDT
[#21]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Chinese cement famous the world over... Oh gawd, not their cement! Just their current knowledge base.... Then again... |
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Posted: 2/13/2017 12:10:24 PM EDT
[#22]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
The minute this happened on Tuesday, we were way past man-made intervention. Ever read the short story 'cold equation' ? This has happened already. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
Please tell me you are joking.
The spillway is running at ~100,000 cfs. The biggest pumps they could fly in there are ~16000gpm which is ~35.6 cfs That's a whopping increase of 0.036%, similar to spitting in the ocean. The minute this happened on Tuesday, we were way past man-made intervention. Ever read the short story 'cold equation' ? This has happened already. Group buy?  
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Posted: 2/13/2017 12:10:50 PM EDT
[#23]
Lol, they really need some big ass siphons!
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Posted: 2/13/2017 12:10:56 PM EDT
[#24]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Respectfully, I don't think the main dam will fail, but if the water gets too high over the emergency spillway, that could easily fail. I just saw the current live helicopter video, even with the 100k flow rate, it doesn't appear that the spillway has eroded upstream at all overnight. That's a great sign. Quote HistoryQuoted:
Quoted:
100% possible if there is a monster storm before summer. Im not joking. I just spent three days staring at that thing. If you can't tell by what happened so far, they have no idea what's going on. Respectfully, I don't think the main dam will fail, but if the water gets too high over the emergency spillway, that could easily fail. I just saw the current live helicopter video, even with the 100k flow rate, it doesn't appear that the spillway has eroded upstream at all overnight. That's a great sign. I've been watching the webcam for an hour now, there are no helicopters on station at this time. |
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Posted: 2/13/2017 12:10:59 PM EDT
[#25]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Maybe. Rocks have been used for millenia to slow the effects of erosion. They can help dissipate the energy of the water coming over the e-spillway instead of the soil taking the full brunt. Not this time, Here is the situation, More water is on the way, record snow fall in the higher elevations has yet to fully start its melt cycle,,record rains have fallen and the dam has reached its capacity, and it is damaged, it cannot be properly fixed before more water enters the holding area. The 'emergency' spillway has reached its failure stage and cannot be expected to hold again. The main spillway is damaged and slowly loosing its base, and there is absolutely nothing that can be done about it, nothing. This dam will fail, and it will be at its spillway location. It is just a matter of time vs. inflow. |
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Posted: 2/13/2017 12:11:01 PM EDT
[#26]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Respectfully, I don't think the main dam will fail, but if the water gets too high over the emergency spillway, that could easily fail. I just saw the current live helicopter video, even with the 100k flow rate, it doesn't appear that the spillway has eroded upstream at all overnight. That's a great sign. The DWR rep last night said they were detecting no head cut at 100k flow rate. I'm hoping that continues to be the case. |
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Posted: 2/13/2017 12:11:20 PM EDT
[#27]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Respectfully, I don't think the main dam will fail, but if the water gets too high over the emergency spillway, that could easily fail. I just saw the current live helicopter video, even with the 100k flow rate, it doesn't appear that the spillway has eroded upstream at all overnight. That's a great sign. How long will that last? All spring? I sure hope it does but the odds are not in our favor. 
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Posted: 2/13/2017 12:11:22 PM EDT
[#28]
Woah! wtf! The news is talking about privately own Blackhawk Helicopters! I had no idea that was allowed! I want!!!!
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Posted: 2/13/2017 12:11:31 PM EDT
[#29]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
It's interesting to note that the reservoir inflow plot is now offline and has been since midnight 12th/13th. They don't want people here doing independent analysis. |
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Posted: 2/13/2017 12:11:44 PM EDT
[#30]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Forecast call for mid to upper 60's today, so I expect the inflow to increase as the day goes on. Well, that is if they decide to get back to reporting inflow levels. Inflow is probably a calculated number. Surface area of the reservoir is 15,800 acres, and you know reservoir elevation and gate head (i.e. outflow) They are lowering the elevation of the lake about 4" per hour (give or take) that is a net outflow of about 64kcfs. |
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Posted: 2/13/2017 12:11:45 PM EDT
[#31]
897.22'
Waiting on other data again. |
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Posted: 2/13/2017 12:12:16 PM EDT
[#32]
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Posted: 2/13/2017 12:12:37 PM EDT
[#33]
Nobody thought about a water truck before the choppers came in?
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Posted: 2/13/2017 12:13:11 PM EDT
[#34]
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Posted: 2/13/2017 12:13:45 PM EDT
[#35]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Lol, they really need some big ass siphons! That could actually be a viable option... Problem would be pulling a prime. |
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Posted: 2/13/2017 12:13:50 PM EDT
[#36]
Quote HistoryRight here !!! Problem solved !! Gravity flow that shit ! |
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Posted: 2/13/2017 12:14:21 PM EDT
[#37]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Still don't know why they don't have some major pumps and pipe on the way to put over near the parking lot and get some major water pumped out and over and down the hill say 300 or 400 yards down to keep erosion at bay.... I'd think every bit of the water they could get over and down would most likely help... I'm talking MAJOR pumps that would run around the clock. Go surf that and get back with us on who makes them. By all means describe how big the components are, how many trucks it takes to haul them in, where would they set up (big heavy stuff sinks into flooded land) and where they are getting the power from. If diesel how many tanker loads a day? It's not you, we've read this suggestion repeated for three days. Let me keep you from all the frustration of discovery - there are no pumps. The scale of how big this is escapes most people. A pump big enough to do any good would be hauled in on a divided highway using both sets of lanes while demolition crews blow the overpasses, on something that resembles the Shuttle Transporter. We're talking big enough to ram the Walkers on Hoth and crush them. With magna drive they could land on the hull and run at ramming speed to knock off the bridge of a Star Group battleship. BIG LEAGUE PUMP. The turbines in the power house are too small to do that and they measure yards across on the impellers. So the engineers designed gate systems to just let the water out in a controlled manner, after 50 years, the follow on managers up to Governor level ignored maintenance and repair. The flood gates are working fine, but the concrete channel? Not so much. Nope, you can't just bring in a pump. A way to get the water out has to be on site and functional in a way that doesn't lead to the destruction of the dam and there is no getting around it. What they have is a bad deal as they can't get rid of the water down the flume as quickly as they like, and as much as we are disparaging the engineers it's not like they have let the thing fail and slide down into Feather Canyon yet. Let's not forget that the water Administration still supports the idea there is a drought even with 34 counties declared a flood disaster zone and the lakes at about 98% capacity. They haven't even approached this yet with a changed attitude. They will be questioned about that now. Bigly. |
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Posted: 2/13/2017 12:15:13 PM EDT
[#38]
I think pumps would be useless at this point, but I think it's worth pointing out that the water is at an elevated position relative to the discharge. You don't need pumps, just giant pipes and a tiny vac pump to get it started...
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Posted: 2/13/2017 12:15:27 PM EDT
[#39]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Where is Moonbeam? Looking for collatera?l |
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Posted: 2/13/2017 12:16:59 PM EDT
[#40]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
That could actually be a viable option... Problem would be pulling a prime. Not really, where are you going to get the diameter to flow an appreciable amount without it collapsing in on itself? |
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Posted: 2/13/2017 12:17:10 PM EDT
[#41]
Spillway looks much better than I expected it would.
It doesn't appear that there has been progression of the erosion up the spillway. |
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Posted: 2/13/2017 12:17:27 PM EDT
[#42]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Watching the news last night with some of the evacuee interviews had me shaking my head. Alarms came on, evac notice sent out and all they grabbed was family and pets. These people have known for a few days that there are issues with the spillways. Why the hell would they not have their important stuff packed up and in the car, or a least packed and ready to grab, in case of an evac notice? Fucking dumbasses. 3 years ago we got flooded out. (I don't live in a flood zone). It had been raining for days, the river (1/4 mile away) was RAGING. normally 6000cfs at high flow, was well over 50,000cfs. I started packing up. Moved the cars to high ground, got hte RV aired up (air brakes) and moved to high ground so I could load it, moved all the tools up in the garage (garage sits lower than the house). Had a friend come over to help pack stuff into his truck too. he pulls up and says "hey, there's water coming over your road" what? 20 minutes later there was 2' of water coming over the road and we all drove out. I was the ONLY person on my block who packed, saved their cars, didn't get everything wiped out that was low, and didn't lose any cars and didn't have to be evacuated, hell some people didn't even get their pets (cops had to come get them) This is a rather rural little neighborhood, not your usual suburbia and yet still no action. People plan for the best instead of the other way around. No cop cars came down the street, the emergency sirens (that is less than 100' away) NEVER went off. (they claimed conveniently afterwards that they were tornado sirens, bullshit). You are on your own when the shit hits the fan and it's way better to be early and wrong than late and wrong. and OP deserves the arfcom medal of valor. |
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Posted: 2/13/2017 12:17:39 PM EDT
[#43]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
So is the dam actually going to fail catastrophically? Dam: Not likely Main spillway: already a mess and could get worse Emergency spillway: Probably going to fail if it gets used again, and that could result in a biblical wall of water |
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Posted: 2/13/2017 12:17:40 PM EDT
[#44]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Respectfully, I don't think the main dam will fail, but if the water gets too high over the emergency spillway, that could easily fail. I just saw the current live helicopter video, even with the 100k flow rate, it doesn't appear that the spillway has eroded upstream at all overnight. That's a great sign. I predict you won't see any more water going over the emergency spillway. They are going to have to just use the main spillway and dump however much water it takes to keep the level below the emergency spillway level and worry about the damage to the main spillway later. |
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Posted: 2/13/2017 12:18:25 PM EDT
[#45]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Anyone who thinks that dropping bags of rock behind or in front of this weakened structure is going to save it is really in lala land. Bags of rock vs. what is coming in the next few weeks and months, is purely for looks. They have to be seen as doing something at this point its moot. This dam will fail,at the spillway and those in charge know full well it will and there is nothing they can do to stop it. The dice have been rolled and anyone with half a brain can read them. in this situation it could, they appear to t trying to stop a headcut in the wide upper flow area which will have much less velocity and suction the the spillway. |
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Posted: 2/13/2017 12:19:09 PM EDT
[#46]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
The DWR rep last night said they were detecting no head cut at 100k flow rate. I'm hoping that continues to be the case. The problem isn't what's going on today. The problem is going to be next week when 200,000 ft.³ per second comes in and goes right out. The lake has had 300,000 come in before... Nobody has a clue what's going to happen. One thing is for absolute sure is it's going to get much worse. They can't empty the lake from the bottom they can only go to the bottom of the spillway gates |
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Posted: 2/13/2017 12:19:58 PM EDT
[#47]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
I hate to say it but if we want to hire people with the experience and education needed, we have to look to China. They are the ones currently building large scale water projects. I won't eat food products from China. I would not trust them for safety of life applications either. |
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Posted: 2/13/2017 12:20:00 PM EDT
[#48]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Yep looks like the green part is gone. https://www.AR15.Com/media/mediaFiles/68285/oroville-espill-erosion-monday2-145860.JPG |
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Posted: 2/13/2017 12:20:07 PM EDT
[#49]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Yep looks like the green part is gone. https://www.AR15.Com/media/mediaFiles/68285/oroville-espill-erosion-monday2-145860.JPG I see why they were shitting bricks now. I am guessing that the concrete shown under the eSpillway was straight at one time. Now it is sinking all over the place 
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Posted: 2/13/2017 12:21:15 PM EDT
[#50]
Quote HistoryQuoted:
Spillway looks much better than I expected it would. It doesn't appear that there has been progression of the erosion up the spillway. Agreed, the main spillway appears to be in the same condition it was in Saturday. With the current flow rate, it looks like the water is shooting off the break quite a ways before hitting the pool below. If the ledge it's shooting over is in fact bedrock, I think it will take a very long time for that to be undercut. |
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