Am I the only one who wants the price of crude oil to crash? - Page 1

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[ARCHIVED THREAD] - Am I the only one who wants the price of crude oil to crash? (Page 1 of 6)

Posted: 12/15/2014 10:46:02 AM EDT

The crude oil market as a whole has a lot of major players in the international community, some of them we (the USA) hate, some we tolerate, some we like. But the bottom line is that regardless of where the oil comes from, we're still buying it and actively using it. The USA is still the largest consumer of crude oil in the world. When prices drop, sure, our own domestic production will likely also shut down. Smaller companies will probably get bought out by bigger ones, massive consolidation, but the energy industry tends to operate on boom and bust cycles so this would be no different. Practically every other aspect of our economy however will be on the winning side. Fuel prices all around (except probably diesel because FUCK THE EPA!) will drop like a rock. If you haven't ventured out from your basement in the last week or so, gasoline prices are closing in on $2/gallon in many parts of the country. Just today I saw prices at like $2.10. There's a very real possibility that we could see $1.50.

And yet practically every article you see on news web sites or market reports talks about the oil crash as totally detrimental to the market. So, their position is that oil prices need to rise again in order to "stabilize" the market? Let's look at the facts here for a moment.....

OPEC wants to curtail output in order to try and drive prices higher. However OPEC member Saudi Arabia is only interested in looking out for Saudi Arabia and says 'screw you all, we're still pumping', banking on being able to weather low oil prices for a couple years because of the huge piles of cash we've paid them over the past few decades. The problem is other OPEC members' own economy can't stand those low oil prices as long as Saudi Arabia can...Venezuela comes to mind.

Even if Saudi Arabia manages to drive various small shale oil companies in the U.S. out of business and then curtails output to raise the prices again, once those prices start to rise to a certain level, production in the U.S. can start up again because it'll be profitable for private companies to start pumping. I think Saudi Arabia is struggling to accept the fact that they aren't necessarily in the driver's seat anymore.

Our favorite wildcard on the international stage, Russia, needs high oil prices too because they're banking their economy on it. 50% of their exports are oil and gas. Did I mention Russia and Saudi Arabia don't really like each other?

The U.S. is still the largest consumer of oil in the world. The next largest is China and yet our own consumption is still twice theirs. As a major consumer, lower prices directly benefit our nation and our economy.

There are simply too many major players in the world oil market for someone NOT to do something, likely something stupid. When you have major nations who rely on oil as their primary export to prop up the economy and have not even tried to diversify, well that's their own damn fault. We have had plenty of cities in the U.S. who failed to do this and were reliant on manufacturing. Was our sob story told to the whole world, asking for some pity and hoping companies would open up a new plant? Nope. Many nations have established propped up socialist governments which keep people on the .gov dole so long as that oil money if flowing in steady. Less money, less .gov money for the people = more chance of social unrest in these countries possibly looking to overthrow the socialist government. This is a nice side benefit.

Lower oil prices translate into less revenue flowing into the coffers of many middle eastern nations, many of those states sponsor terrorism against the U.S. So less money for the terrorism budget. This is an additional fringe benefit the U.S.

I don't recall any sort of massive campaign from our "friends" in OPEC or Russia to drastically increase production when consumers here in the U.S. were facing the possibilities of paying $5/gallon years ago. They were quite content to keep oil output at the same old meager levels.

Lastly, and to serve as the cherry on top, ISIS has been selling oil to Assad for a while now which is how they've been funding themselves. Now typically selling oil like this to a recognized nation like Syria, well that's essentially selling "black market" oil, so ISIS has had to sell that at a discount compared to typical market rates. Imagine now what price ISIS is having to sell at. The point is if it keeps going lower, ISIS funding is going to start drying up. So my money is likely on ISIS, Syria or Russia being on the first ones to do something stupid that I mentioned earlier, I really am laughing at the fact that ISIS is sitting right in the middle of all their backyards, because quite frankly even if they do start destroying oil infrastructure, there are other nations in OPEC (Venezuela for example) who would directly benefit, along with U.S. because our shale oil can just keep pumping too.

So pardon me if I don't believe the daily bullshit from so-called "market expert" talking heads that claim these low oil prices will kill us, our economy, or cause some kind of irreparable damage. It'll kill people all right, not us though. All of OPEC and Russia can go suck a big fat out of Uncle Sam's ass for all I care.

Posted: 12/15/2014 10:48:13 AM EDT

[#1]

One thing it will do is reduce food prices as a big part of our recent increase has been the price of getting it to market.

Posted: 12/15/2014 10:49:53 AM EDT

[#2]

Might I ask what is the turning point for fracking? I hear its only worth it if oil is over 60 dollar a barrel. below that fracking isn't cost effective

Posted: 12/15/2014 10:51:15 AM EDT

[#3]

I could get on board with that. Puts more money in my pocket and strips it from our enemies.
Sign me up

Posted: 12/15/2014 10:52:39 AM EDT

[#4]

When I see oil company execs jumping out of windows (higher than the ground floor) it will be a beautiful day in America.

Posted: 12/15/2014 10:52:42 AM EDT

[#5]

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Quoted:

Might I ask what is the turning point for fracking? I hear its only worth it if oil is over 60 dollar a barrel. below that fracking isn't cost effective

View Quote

I can't find a really consistent answer to that question. I've heard $40 is the absolute lowest before they have to close shop. Who the hell knows; I'm sure it's different for each company, but even if the Saudis do get the price down to, say, $30/barrel, that price will stay there for a while to make sure these small companies wither away and die off before they can curtail output to raise the price again. And when the price starts going up, guess what? It'll start being profitable again for U.S. shale oil to resume operations.

Posted: 12/15/2014 10:52:48 AM EDT

[#6]

It WILL hurt domestic energy production. And that has a lot of ramifications here in the US.

Posted: 12/15/2014 10:53:56 AM EDT

[#7]

Quote History

Quoted:
Might I ask what is the turning point for fracking? I hear its only worth it if oil is over 60 dollar a barrel. below that fracking isn't cost effective

View Quote

That is my understanding as well. However I think it kind of ensures that oil won't go above that for a long time. The reason being that if it does, more fracking companies emerge and flood the market with that available fuel thus driving the cost back down. God bless the free market

Technology is a wonderful thing.

Posted: 12/15/2014 10:56:49 AM EDT

[#8]

Which do you want? Production in the U.S. with tall of the money rippling through our economy, providing jobs and keeping our taxes low? Or foreign purchases, with our money leaving the country to fund the Saudi Royalty's lavish lifestyles ands terrorism?

You need to think a little farther than your impulses.

Posted: 12/15/2014 10:58:35 AM EDT

[#9]

Quote History

Quoted:
Which do you want? Production in the U.S. with tall of the money rippling through our economy, providing jobs and keeping our taxes low? Or foreign purchases, with our money leaving the country to fund the Saudi Royalty's lavish lifestyles ands terrorism?

You need to think a little farther than your impulses.

View Quote

Bingo. What happened to all the cries of "Drill here, Drill now" and "we want energy independence"?

Posted: 12/15/2014 10:59:03 AM EDT

[#10]

Quote History

Quoted:
Might I ask what is the turning point for fracking? I hear its only worth it if oil is over 60 dollar a barrel. below that fracking isn't cost effective

View Quote

Heard that it started being viable at 50 a barrel, profitable at 60. That was a couple years back, though.

Posted: 12/15/2014 11:00:09 AM EDT

[#11]

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It WILL hurt domestic energy production. And that has a lot of ramifications here in the US.

View Quote

And Canada...Canada has a huge shale and oil sand sector...

Stocks for those companies are getting hammered right now.

Posted: 12/15/2014 11:01:01 AM EDT

[#12]

Quote History

Quoted:

Which do you want? Production in the U.S. with tall of the money rippling through our economy, providing jobs and keeping our taxes low? Or foreign purchases, with our money leaving the country to fund the Saudi Royalty's lavish lifestyles ands terrorism?

You need to think a little farther than your impulses.

View Quote

Many of our own domestic oil companies, I'll just use Exxon as an example, have already set up shop in foreign nations to partner with them in extracting oil and selling it. This is nothing new. Exxon still profits from this however, which is a benefit to a domestic company. True, these foreign nations receive money from the sale, however your own post makes it seem like if oil prices are high and our domestic production is going strong then consumers are ONLY buying U.S. domestic oil, which is certainly not the case. Even right now with oil prices at these low levels, there are consumers at the pump purchasing gasoline made from foreign oil.

Posted: 12/15/2014 11:02:54 AM EDT

[#13]

Quote History

Quoted:
Might I ask what is the turning point for fracking? I hear its only worth it if oil is over 60 dollar a barrel. below that fracking isn't cost effective

View Quote

This might have been the case awhile back but these oil and gas companies invest a lot of money back into the business and are able to pay off assets fast. Maybe $60 is what is has to stay at for them to get out of debt from equipment cost and start turning big profits but the oil and gas industry is constantly invoationg to make the process cheaper to conduct business. Now more so they will slim down if need be and not pay out as lucrative as they have in the past, not as big of signing bonuses, and generally go into operating very cost effectively like any business.

Posted: 12/15/2014 11:03:37 AM EDT

[#14]

I like the idea of inexpensive fuel as much as the next guy, but not at the expense of American oil jobs ( or the rest of our energy sector).

Posted: 12/15/2014 11:05:16 AM EDT

[#15]

Lower oil prices will help finding more cost effect ways to get the US oil out of the ground.

So the smaller US oil companies don't close up shop.

Posted: 12/15/2014 11:05:47 AM EDT

[#16]

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Quoted:
And Canada...Canada has a huge shale and oil sand sector...

Stocks for those companies are getting hammered right now.

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Quoted:

Quoted:

It WILL hurt domestic energy production. And that has a lot of ramifications here in the US.

And Canada...Canada has a huge shale and oil sand sector...

Stocks for those companies are getting hammered right now.

Possibly a decent investment opportunity in the future?

Friend of mine bought $1-2k of GM stocks at $.25 a share when they crashed. Not exactly making bank on it right now....

I should have bought $1-2k of bit coin back in 2008

Posted: 12/15/2014 11:06:30 AM EDT

[#17]

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I like the idea of inexpensive fuel as much as the next guy, but not at the expense of American oil jobs ( or the rest of our energy sector).

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lol

Posted: 12/15/2014 11:07:54 AM EDT

[#18]

If it truly "crashes" - there will be no supply. What is your plan then?

Posted: 12/15/2014 11:10:01 AM EDT

[#19]

The cheap oil is because of increased Saudi production, whom don't like our new found energy independence.

So I guess you'd rather save a few cents on gas and food than being free of dependence on Saudi oil?

Posted: 12/15/2014 11:10:01 AM EDT

[#20]

The cheap oil is because of increased Saudi production, whom don't like our new found energy independence.

So I guess you'd rather save a few cents on gas and food than being free of dependence on Saudi oil?

Posted: 12/15/2014 11:13:16 AM EDT

[#21]

Low oil prices might just stimulate the economy enough to help another democrat win the next election.

Hey, your health insurance and taxes are double but look at how much you save on gas.

Posted: 12/15/2014 11:15:48 AM EDT

[#22]

High oil prices hurt the whole economy. Low oil prices only affect the energy sector.

Low oil prices are good, the admin doesn't like it, so the media is spewing what they spew.

Posted: 12/15/2014 11:16:03 AM EDT

[#23]

Quote History

Quoted:

The cheap oil is because of increased Saudi production, whom don't like our new found energy independence.

So I guess you'd rather save a few cents on gas and food than being free of dependence on Saudi oil?

View Quote

Regardless of what happens, such as Saudis flooding the market with oil at cost (which for them is like $2/barrel) or curtailing output, the market will still win at the end of the day. We either buy that cheap oil at $2/barrel, or if they curtail output and drive up the price, we simply start pumping our own again. The days of bullshit $100/barrel prices are over.

Posted: 12/15/2014 11:23:24 AM EDT

[#24]

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High oil prices hurt the whole economy. Low oil prices only affect the energy sector.

Low oil prices are good, the admin doesn't like it, so the media is spewing what they spew.

View Quote

It's probably pissing off the greenies, manbearpig, the media and the other usual suspects. If it's pissing them off, it's probably good for us.

Posted: 12/15/2014 11:24:56 AM EDT

[#25]

Wait until the lefties start chattering about hefty gas/carbon taxes.

"Now that oil/gas prices are so low, we can tack $1 per gallon tax onto gas since the average consumer is already accustom to paying $3-4.00 a gallon".

Then WHEN gas prices go back up, they will hurt the consumer even more….Err, I mean "nudge" consumers into conserving.

Posted: 12/15/2014 11:25:49 AM EDT

[#26]

Probably just you. I tend to view hard working Americans being unemployed as a bad thing.

Posted: 12/15/2014 11:27:43 AM EDT

[#27]

One thing I don't see being discussed is the impact this will have on our ability to stabilize oil prices in the event of a Middle East collapse. If Saudi Oil drives fracking out of business, and those businesses stop operations, if ISIS decides to cause more trouble, we'll be at the mercy of market fluctuations as a result because we won't have our own production to compensate.

$40 per barrel oil is great, until the region it's extracted from has another conflict.

I'd gladly pay $3 a gallon now, instead of having to pay $5-6 per gallon if the ME gets involved in a widespread conflict.

Posted: 12/15/2014 11:28:35 AM EDT

[#28]

I'm starting a new job next month in an oil b [my area. Not in the oil industry, but close enough that I'm not excited about a crash in prices.

Posted: 12/15/2014 11:31:51 AM EDT

[#29]

As long as I have been alive (53 years) ALL the oil companies have been raping the fuck out of the American public on oil and gas prices. Yearly they report BILLIONS in profits. That doesn't happen by selling oil at a couple cents per barrel profit but by huge gouging of buyers. Their perpetual attitude has been for us to say "yes sir, give me another!" When sticking their fat oil cock in our asses. I welcome some of the shithole countries economies going to shit. US companies may slow production but not by much and only temporarily. They are too fucking greedy to cut back on production as they want those billions in profit still.

Only group upset by this in the US is the democrats as it causes less depression and better economy, killing their desire for more socialism. Obama is seething at low oil prices, almost as much as he is pissed at republicans for taking back the senate.

Posted: 12/15/2014 11:33:17 AM EDT

[#30]

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One thing I don't see being discussed is the impact this will have on our ability to stabilize oil prices in the event of a Middle East collapse. If Saudi Oil drives fracking out of business, and those businesses stop operations, if ISIS decides to cause more trouble, we'll be at the mercy of market fluctuations as a result because we won't have our own production to compensate.

$40 per barrel oil is great, until the region it's extracted from has another conflict.

I'd gladly pay $3 a gallon now, instead of having to pay $5-6 per gallon if the ME gets involved in a widespread conflict.

View Quote

These are all good points, but you're forgetting the wildcard I mentioned (Russia) who also wants to sell oil, preferably at higher prices but it isn't like they can be choosey right now. The other factor is that other OPEC member nations (like Venezuela) don't have ISIS problems to deal with and also want to sell oil and don't like the Saudis flooding the market. I guess what I'm saying is that the crude oil market probably isn't as volatile now.

Posted: 12/15/2014 11:36:36 AM EDT

[#31]

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I could get on board with that. Puts more money in my pocket and strips it from our enemies.
Sign me up

View Quote

You mean like it used to be, when gas was $1.18 a gallon? I remember someone bitching about that when it went up about .08 cents. The economy was buzzing right along then too, this was 2001 after the 9-11 attacks.

Posted: 12/15/2014 11:36:46 AM EDT

[#32]

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Bingo. What happened to all the cries of "Drill here, Drill now" and "we want energy independence"?

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Quoted:
Which do you want? Production in the U.S. with tall of the money rippling through our economy, providing jobs and keeping our taxes low? Or foreign purchases, with our money leaving the country to fund the Saudi Royalty's lavish lifestyles ands terrorism?

You need to think a little farther than your impulses.

Bingo. What happened to all the cries of "Drill here, Drill now" and "we want energy independence"?

We did drill here and we did drill now. This is the result of doing so

Posted: 12/15/2014 11:37:59 AM EDT

[#33]

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Quoted:

As long as I have been alive (53 years) ALL the oil companies have been raping the fuck out of the American public on oil and gas prices. Yearly they report BILLIONS in profits. That doesn't happen by selling oil at a couple cents per barrel profit but by huge gouging of buyers. Their perpetual attitude has been for us to say "yes sir, give me another!" When sticking their fat oil cock in our asses. I welcome some of the shithole countries economies going to shit. US companies may slow production but not by much and only temporarily. They are too fucking greedy to cut back on production as they want those billions in profit still.

Only group upset by this in the US is the democrats as it causes less depression and better economy, killing their desire for more socialism. Obama is seething at low oil prices, almost as much as he is pissed at republicans for taking back the senate.

View Quote

I feel you, truly I mean that and I'm not saying it just for the hell of it. But one thing to keep in mind is that large domestic energy companies, like Exxon, typically see profit margins around 10-15%. Yes, their profit numbers are in the billions, but their percentage is just what I stated. It's the foreign oil companies who have truly been raping the U.S. consumer that you should direct your anger toward, namely Saudi Aramco. It costs them around $2/barrel to get oil out of the ground over there. When oil was selling for $100/barrel or more, well the profit percentage is pretty easy to see now.

Posted: 12/15/2014 11:41:16 AM EDT

[#34]

Quote History

Quoted:

Bingo. What happened to all the cries of "Drill here, Drill now" and "we want energy independence"?

View Quote View All Quotes

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Quoted:

Quoted:
Which do you want? Production in the U.S. with tall of the money rippling through our economy, providing jobs and keeping our taxes low? Or foreign purchases, with our money leaving the country to fund the Saudi Royalty's lavish lifestyles ands terrorism?

You need to think a little farther than your impulses.

Bingo. What happened to all the cries of "Drill here, Drill now" and "we want energy independence"?

Nothing wrong with that at all, in fact, I encourage energy dependance, they will just have to roll with the changes or fall unfortunately.

High energy prices put a hurting on people's income and hard choices have to be made sometimes, like food on the table or gas to get to work.

I don't like hearing about choices like that, or having to make that choice myself. So yea, basically between a rock and a hard place, tough call.

Posted: 12/15/2014 11:43:07 AM EDT

[#35]

Good for consumers bad for American oil companies. But yeah, I'm ready for 2.00 gas for a year or two.

Posted: 12/15/2014 11:50:38 AM EDT

[#36]

Quote History

Quoted:
Bingo. What happened to all the cries of "Drill here, Drill now" and "we want energy independence"?

View Quote View All Quotes

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Quoted:

Quoted:

Which do you want? Production in the U.S. with tall of the money rippling through our economy, providing jobs and keeping our taxes low? Or foreign purchases, with our money leaving the country to fund the Saudi Royalty's lavish lifestyles ands terrorism?

You need to think a little farther than your impulses.

Bingo. What happened to all the cries of "Drill here, Drill now" and "we want energy independence"?

That was for $4+/gallon gas.

When a gallon of gas is $2 and some change (and dropping), many, if not most, are happy to burn up the Saudi reserves and leave ours untouched for a rainy day.

$100 to $50 per barrel of crude kinda kicks their profits.

Fracking technology is not going away or our reserves are somehow gonna be 'undiscovered'. That genie is out of the bottle. That tech will just be put on a shelf until it is economically feasible or the ME gets pissy (more than the background pissy)

We should top off the strategic reserve at these low prices and expand it by completing the Richton reserve.

ETA

Cheap oil will likely hurt our enemies much more than us. Russia and Iran come to mind.

Posted: 12/15/2014 11:51:35 AM EDT

[#37]

Quoted:
Snip huge wall of text.

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every thing I have to say to you is a <COC Violation>.

my livelihood depends on high oil prices.

so go <COC Violation> yourself.

Posted: 12/15/2014 11:56:27 AM EDT

[#38]

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every thing I have to say to you is a <COC Violation>.

my livelihood depends on high oil prices.

so go <COC Violation> yourself.

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Quoted:
Snip huge wall of text.

every thing I have to say to you is a <COC Violation>.

my livelihood depends on high oil prices.

so go <COC Violation> yourself.

Cry me a river, I like cheaper gas a lot more then I like putting money in your pocket.

Posted: 12/15/2014 11:57:41 AM EDT

[#39]

I could be happy with gas at the $2.00 range for the next five years.

Posted: 12/15/2014 11:59:28 AM EDT

[#40]

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One thing it will do is reduce food prices as a big part of our recent increase has been the price of getting it to market.

View Quote

but you can bet your ass it will happen much slower, just like a vendor who added a fuel sur charge will not take it off their bill in the hopes
that the person will not notice.

Posted: 12/15/2014 12:01:13 PM EDT

[#41]

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every thing I have to say to you is a <COC Violation>.

my livelihood depends on high oil prices.

so go <COC Violation> yourself.

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Quoted:

Snip huge wall of text.

every thing I have to say to you is a <COC Violation>.

my livelihood depends on high oil prices.

so go <COC Violation> yourself.

I admire your honesty.

Posted: 12/15/2014 12:01:28 PM EDT

[#42]

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When I see oil company execs jumping out of windows (higher than the ground floor) it will be a beautiful day in America.

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Yeah, fuck the industry that probably provides more tax revenue to the country than any other.

Posted: 12/15/2014 12:07:40 PM EDT

[#43]

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One thing it will do is reduce food prices as a big part of our recent increase has been the price of getting it to market.

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No it won't

That shit never goes down. They get you used to paying it and leave it that way and make that much more profit.

Posted: 12/15/2014 12:09:43 PM EDT

[#44]

Posted: 12/15/2014 12:22:02 PM EDT

[#45]

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Quoted:
As long as I have been alive (53 years) ALL the oil companies have been raping the fuck out of the American public on oil and gas prices. Yearly they report BILLIONS in profits. That doesn't happen by selling oil at a couple cents per barrel profit but by huge gouging of buyers. Their perpetual attitude has been for us to say "yes sir, give me another!" When sticking their fat oil cock in our asses. I welcome some of the shithole countries economies going to shit. US companies may slow production but not by much and only temporarily. They are too fucking greedy to cut back on production as they want those billions in profit still.

Only group upset by this in the US is the democrats as it causes less depression and better economy, killing their desire for more socialism. Obama is seething at low oil prices, almost as much as he is pissed at republicans for taking back the senate.

View Quote

The lack of knowledge in this post is amazing.

Posted: 12/15/2014 12:23:34 PM EDT

[#46]

ARFCOM cries and wails and bitches about outsourcing American jobs until it means another $20 a week in their own pocket, at which point they turn into evil corporate profiteers interested in only what goes into their pocket, fuck anybody who will suffer the results.

ARFCOM GD, should be renamed Hypocrite Central.

Posted: 12/15/2014 12:24:36 PM EDT

[#47]

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every thing I have to say to you is a <COC Violation>.

my livelihood depends on high oil prices.

so go <COC Violation> yourself.

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Quoted:

Quoted:
Snip huge wall of text.

every thing I have to say to you is a <COC Violation>.

my livelihood depends on high oil prices.

so go <COC Violation> yourself.

High fuel prices have certainly put a crimp on my lifestyle over the past several years now low prices can do the same for you.

Just try to relax and enjoy it the best you can, life bends us all over at various times.

Posted: 12/15/2014 12:27:05 PM EDT

[#48]

It hurts the Russian economy, so no.

Drill on.

Posted: 12/15/2014 12:27:35 PM EDT

[#49]

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Possibly a decent investment opportunity in the future?

Friend of mine bought $1-2k of GM stocks at $.25 a share when they crashed. Not exactly making bank on it right now....
I should have bought $1-2k of bit coin back in 2008

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Quoted:
It WILL hurt domestic energy production. And that has a lot of ramifications here in the US.

And Canada...Canada has a huge shale and oil sand sector...

Stocks for those companies are getting hammered right now.

Possibly a decent investment opportunity in the future?

Friend of mine bought $1-2k of GM stocks at $.25 a share when they crashed. Not exactly making bank on it right now....
I should have bought $1-2k of bit coin back in 2008

Go back and look what happened after Nat Gas prices tanked in, what was it, 2009 or 2010. That will give you a guide on how to proceed.

Smaller oil companies will get more and more interesting as acquisition targets, not because they are profitable, but because the have value as a source of proven reserves. There is a money making opportunity here.

Posted: 12/15/2014 12:29:33 PM EDT

[#50]

wow a lot of fucking DU posters here...

[ARCHIVED THREAD] - Am I the only one who wants the price of crude oil to crash? (Page 1 of 6)

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