Just playing devils advocate... What's the difference if you buy now and wait 12 months or wait 6 months for the rush to die down then wait another 6 months for the new "normal" processing times?

The difference is that
1. You are securing that item will be yours and possibly beating the high demand on cans.

2. Buying now supports the company and local SOT.

3. Getting something now and save up for another one in 6 months.

.....
typo

Didn't send a check, bought the stamp through SS

Direct from the ATF Deputy Division Chief:

Here's some 'sort of interesting' info:

I submitted three eform 1s before the deadline, one SBR and two cans. The SBR and one can were submitted on June 7th and the other can on July 7th.

The SBR submitted on June 7 went to "in process" right away, the can submitted on that day went "pending research" until June 23rd when it went "in process." That's 16 days.

The can I submitted on July 7th went "pending research" for the same reason as the first can however it was until Aug 9th that it went to "in process." That's 33 days.

Twice as many days as the first time just to research the problem and the put the form in the system. (the problem for both cans turned out to be the system didn't recognize what I had put as the manufacturer) I don't know why that happened I followed the tutorial in the NFA forum.

The SBS was approved Jan 9 and the first can approved Feb 27. That's 49 days apart for 16 days apart at the submission date. I don't know if that means anything except you can see where times are increasing, and how much, at both ends of the process as you get closer to July 13th.

Anecdotally it seems to me that eforms are coming in approved somewhere near 3 to 1 days relative to the date submitted as we approach July 13th. (I have noticed this in the timelines tacked thread as well) If you submitted two forms ten days apart, the approvals will come approximately thirty days apart.

That's purely anecdotal from my observations. I noticed this back in January before my first approval and I had estimated my last approval within a day.

Back in the early 80s when me and my buddies were buying M10s and 11s the Form 4 would take a month or two and we thought that was a long time. And back then $200 was a lot of money, more than my weekly pay, and was thought of as ridiculous to pay a $200 tax on a $400 M10.

I'm honestly not quite sure why people aren't buying.

I'm talking about the waiting for HPA types.

That shit won't pass. And if it does it'll be a while.

Most likely, if you buy a can now, you'll get it before the HPA. Even with current wait times.

And if the HPA passes you might be lucky and be one if the first few that scores a can but they will all be bought. Overnight. You won't touch one for a year. And if you do e over to pay at least double.

On the other hand, you buy four now. You keep two new and sell them for enough to pay for all four when people are trying to find some to buy right after HPA passes.

the silencer industry knows that the "HPA waiters" are not really part of the market to begin with. They might buy IF HPA passes, but most of them aren't silencer owners who are refusing to buy until HPA passes. Most silencer owners/serious buyers who are not buying right now are still recovering from their pre-41F spending sprees, or dissuaded by the new rules, especially if there are several trustees. 

HPA is only a deterrent for guys that have always had an excuse for not buying. 

Cans won't sell that fast. Neither is making new ones that time consuming.

FORM 1 REGISTRATION, UNITED STATES is what's on the form now but I'm almost positive that's not what I put on the form. It's been a long time and my memory's foggy. I don't have the email now but ATF sent an email saying why it was delayed and it said "pending research of the manufacturer" or something to that effect. I do recall thinking that's retarded because I am the manufacturer and what I wrote in there reflected that.

lol

I must be doing it wrong.  But whenever I try to order a very large amount of a very specific and not very common item, I usually wait awhile.

Unless you mean the assembly is not that time consuming.

So - if I were to submit a hard copy Form 1 now and it goes through, then the HPA takes affect... Can I keep my Series of 1934 $200 stamp?

Considering it's a tube with threaded or welded caps and a few internal components, ramping up manufacturing would honestly not be the biggest obstacle to ownership.

I think that's what I did.

I think your vastly underestimating the amount of people who will go out and buy them, and how few they make now relative to the amount of gun owners out there.

Think of how much AR's were going for when the rush was on. And they were being sold out. It won't even be close. Nit even close. You womtceee them for a long while if the HPA passes.

It's simple supply and demand. Nit like we need a crystal ball. Pre 41f sales just about cleared all if the suppressors out.

Quotes work weirdly since the update but that's kind of what I was saying. The person I was responding to basically stated they were going to wait until the wait times go down. I was trying to express that there is no reason to wait for that.

QFT

I think you're vastly overestimating it.

Before the election people were buying guns at higher and higher prices. Now that they're not in danger the market has slumped.

With no urgency to buy, a theoretical post-HPA world would see a lot of people interested but also in no hurry.

I love this. Only the government would use figures from a decade ago to justify them being so slow today. Imagine that flying in the private sector...

More dramatic that way.

This X 1000

IF the HPA passes, i'm not holding my breath, good luck finding what you want in stock for the first, oh say 1.5-2 years after, might as well buy now cause you're gonna be waiting anyway

Think of it like a new product release.

New iPhone. New whatever. But instead if the company having tens of millions of units ready to sell there are maybe tens of thousands.

For the potential 100 million gun owners. Even if 1% want one......poof. They are all sold out. For a while.

See what I mean?  1%. Think about that. :)

Meanwhile you're chugging along at 50% capacity because there's no market.  You also have minimum raw materials laying around because, hey times are lean.

HPA looks like it'll pass and you need to ramp up quick.  Sure, lets assume you have the machining and tooling ready to go, but those billets of titanium and 17-4 PH stainless?  Rolls of aluminum?  How about CNC operators?

This ain't shit you overnight from your Amazon prime account.  It takes time and planning.

At least I assume the silencer industry isn't on the easy button, but I could be wrong.

Based on the Lucky Ones that are getting their APPROVED Forms I currently Estimate the waiting time to be About 40 Weeks.

YMMV