Prices on M16s have come down in the last 6 months, at least the ones that are selling. There are still sellers asking way above these prices but that doesn't mean anyone is buying them.

Transferable M16 machine guns and estimated market values:
RLL $15-17k
RDIAS $34-36k
RR Non-Colt Cast AR15 Conversion $18-20k
RR Non-Colt AR15 Conversion $18-20k
RR Colt AR15 SP1 Conversion $18-20k
RR Colt AR15 614 $22-25k
RR Colt M16 $23-28k
RR Colt M16A1 $23-28k
RR Colt M16A2 $30-35k
RR Colt M16A2 Commando $35-38k (Marked "Auto" instead of "Burst")

If anyone is interested in buying a M16, Frank from Midwest tactical has like a dozen in stock with prices set to move them quickly.

I got that email yesterday and was tempted as well as there are some good prices in the note I received.

Pricing hasn't been super strong in general recently with a noticeable downward trend for many models,  but I have to wonder if the government shutdown may be starting to affect prices as well.

I have a three machineguns stuck in limbo including one I paid for just a couple days before the shutdown occurred.  While in the grand scheme of things it not a huge issue as this isn't a hobby for the impatient...... I am also not super keen on the idea of sending more money into NFA limbo when the clock isn't even running right now and no idea when it may start (or how bad wait times will be once it does restart).   I have no doubt that the FAL I bought right before Christmas, I probably won't see until sometime in 2020.

Ruben currently has 195 machineguns for sale with an inventory book value of probably $2M+.   I don't ever recall him having anywhere near this many guns for sale at one time and assuming he leverages a bank line of credit he is looking at at least $100K in interest a year.

At some point prices have to soften if the supply exceeds the demand.

I have a suppressor that should have been approved around Christmas

I think prices kind of leveled off mid-2018 but I agree they really took a dive towards the end of the year and is quite possibly related to the shutdown, people are in no hurry to buy with the shutdown.

Additional factors could be the weak stock market, people are less likely to buy luxury items when they see their net worth going down by tens of thousands of dollars.

If you look at past MG values they all leveled off shortly before the 08/09 recession. Statistically we are overdue for a recession or at least some sort of market correction, we might already be in one.

Housing prices are also at all time highs. Best case scenario people are over extending themselves financially on mortgages they cant afford, worst case scenario we are looking at another housing bubble.

We have also had several years of calm in the firearms world. No panic buys, no threats of assault weapon bans that anyone is actually taking serious. As a result only the die hard firearms enthusiast are still buying guns and with few buys and tons of sellers prices are following supply demand. And while there is a fixed supply of transferable MGs, there is likely fewer buyers at the moment.

And lastly prices may just simply be too high. I know we all say there is no ceiling for MG prices, but they are only worth what people are willing to pay. And when entry level MGs like macs are breaking $8k it turns away a lot of potential buyers. Until MG shooting replaces golf for the past time of the ultra wealthy prices will hit a peak where the avg joe just isn't willing or able to pay it. Full years salary for a M16? no thanks!

I used to think like that a couple years ago, there was a small 1% chance probability that could happen in my lifetime.  Now I think its more likely that the sun will suddenly burn out in my lifetime.  So it will be tough shooting those cheap machine guns in the dark.

The chance it goes the other way against is way bigger and perhaps a reason for machine gun prices dropping.  Another definite reason, all the guys that amassed giant collections, it was only feasible for most people pre-86 or even pre-99 before prices really took off.   Figure people in those time frames were probably in their 40s and 50s.  Well its 30-40 years later.  They are dying off and they might not sell till they pass to avoid taxes via inheritance.

one or two guys with 20-30 machine guns each drop dead in a 6 month period, that is a lot of additional guns for the market to absorb when the cheapest MG is about $7k.

Also the social media aspect that really drove prices up has been subdued to either it just yesterday's news and/or youtube is banning gun videos right and left.

When Ruben starts lowering his prices, that is when you know the market is soft.

He is now up to 199 for sale in the past couple days adding another $100K+ in inventory.

If history is any guide Ruben will be the last dealer to ever publicly lower his prices.  I don't recall him lowering prices on existing guns even during the circa 2008 - 2010 financial crisis & subsequent fallout when most MGs dropped probably ~15% to 25%% in price.

He will hold onto guns for years waiting for the right buyer or his pricing on a particular piece to get caught up to market norms.  He has had those three consecutive serial number Stephenville TX M10A1 "garand safety" MACs for sale since 2016 and has not budged on price when he could move all three in short order if he dropped his price by $1000.

Ruben lowering his prices on existing inventory is like a major wall street bank "breaking the buck" on a money market fund.

http://www.sturmgewehr.com/forums/index.php?/topic/12184-wts-colt-m16a1-22500/

This Colt M16A1 is going for $22k and hasn't sold yet. I'd consider that price a steal.

I think this has to do with how long times have become. Hard to sell to someone out of state if they are going to end up waiting 2 years for the 2 forms to be approved. I would rather pay the "not wait till next election" price from a dealer

I couldn’t care less about extended waits, deals are deals.

ya that is an insane price...wish that was up a year ago

I was probably an idiot to sell my transferable HK DLO trigger pack for $13k. That was a number of years ago, and I'll never be able to find one cheaper in the pre-86 MG marketplace...I needed money for university tuition, so fun collectable toys got the chop!

This is my opinion as well. I got a good deal on an out-of-state form4 S&W 76 back in July 2016 and didn't take possession until October 2017 15 months later...and that was a few months before I was expecting to receive the approval. BUT I recognize that sort of wait is a huge turnoff for someone dropping significant money on one sole firearms.

I’m guessing most MG collectors, aficionados and genuine enthusiasts feel this way. Price speculators, NFA newbies and those with little patience (and or ADHD) probabaly feel differently.

Damn... 10 yrs ago?

I think that I probably sold it around 2013-14. It was sold to a fellow lifemember, so got the special ARFCOM lifer price.

Get an FFL and SOT.

Buy your transferrable HK sear and claim it as a deduction.

Let your FFL and SOT lapse after Chisel's Alpaca Socks and Machineguns goes out of business having suffered only expenses and no profits.

I sold my HK Fleming sear back in 09 for $10K, and still kicking my head now days.
After reading your DLO pack saga, I think I can finally stop it.

Uh, $13k in 2013 or 2014 was WAY, WAY under market value for a DLO frame. Like, 60% of market value.

It could be worse. In the late 80's/early 90's DIAS and HK sears were cheaper than the transfer fee.

I really kick myself over passing those up.

I know that! The lifemember I ended up selling it to had originally introduced me to the guy who sold me the DLO pack. One of the benefits of knowing other people within a small community of collectors. I wasn't looking to make a huge profit from of him.

I had a lot of other guns and ammo that I was liquidating at that point and they had all gone up in price by a lot. I sold 40k of 5.45x39 to one person! You should have seen my collection of ARs and AKs. All of my HK hosts (2 SP89s, 1 HK 93, 3 HK 94s, a couple of Dakota Tactical clones - I think those are the correct numbers...sometimes I try to block the memory) ended up getting sold too!

I noticed that too

He dropped the prices on a few of his H & K items a tad about a month ago.  Not enough to get me in the buying mood, but definite signs of the machine gun market as a whole.

MHO, YMMV, etc.

ETA:  With respect to the machine gun market today as a whole, here's a portion of a post I made on Uzitalk a couple days ago:
Gunbroker ad 797306947; Class 3, MAC M11 Full Auto Transferable NFA; Ending Time: 1/28/2019 6:21 PM; Selling price: $6,900.00
Still a long way to go to get to those $10K M11/9s people were predicting to happen as soon as the MAX11/15 hit the streets.

Was that the one on a form 4? Makes sense it would sell a little less. There are 2 more on there in the 6s. No feedback on the seller though.

The problem for South Carolina residents, like tank and myself, is that MG's were not legal to own in SC until the early 2000's. We never had the opportunity to buy at those basement 3 digit price points.
Soon after the law changed I had a deal in place on a DIAS with Ernie Wrenn for $4500 that fell apart, it still stings a bit today.

Someone on UZI talk has a Reising for around $5k. Seems like a good deal on a F4 tho.

I think once all the rifles adapters for the macs hit the market they will probably stabilized around 9-10k. Think we will see UZIs for 8-9k. And I only see the sten/ reising market going back down. Not sure what the floor will be I’d image 4-5k. Wish Vegas smg would make a CW bolt for the reisings. I think that would make them a more deseriable gun. They look cool.

Can't imagine prices wont go back up during the election, people are scared of a ban and know its impossible to not allow for grandfathering in

I paid 1250 for a folder Ruger AC556 in 1991 from FJ Volmer, sold it 10 years later for double the money.
Thought I'd made a killin'!

I would look carefully at how much is getting pushed into a higher bracket. If you're going to lose 10% of that money because you take the bomus early,  it makes much more sense to put that transaction on a 0% card for 12 months or even transfer it to a 0% card for a 3% fee.

This is an incorrect statement.  They have show that they can and will do what they want.  Nothing is impossible.

Im done buying machine guns. in some ways they become a burden. hard to get rid of. the wait times are ridiculous.
i know people that wont even buy cans etc cause they are sick of waiting year plus for a stupid paper approval. most i been doing now
is bolt gun / long range, carbine training. i enjoy it more then just blasting belt after belt. if i get an itch ill go pay somebody to shoot
their postie at a shoot. many are reasonable. and ya dont have to clean it for hours after.

1) I wouldn't say they are hard to get rid of, its not like its a beanie baby you paid $1,000 that's now worth $10 on eBay. But they are not liquid assets, they do take time to sell, days, weeks, even months depending on demand and price. FWIW there are dealers who will pay 80% of market value on the spot, all you have to do is send them detail pictures and sign the paperwork.

2) Yes the wait times are ridiculous. It has discouraged me from impulse buying suppressors, I have one for each caliber and that's enough for me. The price is usually what stops me from buying MGs.

3) Everyone's interests are different. Some people get a rush from blasting belts of ammo, others take pride in being able to hit a target a mile away with their custom precision rifle. I also enjoy the rarity of MGs and take pride in all of the sacrifices I made to be able to afford one. And of course nothing puts a smile on someone's face like a mag dump, and I'm thankful to be able to offer that experience to people.

Do you guys think prices will go up or stay the same if E-File Form 4s come to fruition?

I don’t think it will matter , the kind of people that buy machine guns buy them . I think eform4 will see a huge boom for the suppressor sales though.

I actually disagree.  I’m completely out of the NFA buying game at the moment because of the wait.  I’ve prioritized other stuff as a result, like ammo or spare parts that I’ve been meaning to re-stock.  If the wait for a MG was like 3-5 weeks, I’d be making moves to pick up another immediately.  I think e-form 4s will give the prices a bit of a jolt.

Most definitely! I agree 100%.
I wouldn’t even buy out of state form-4 anymore because of wait.

My pals first Ruger AC556 stamp came through today... it added about 3 months to his wait. Now his form 4 can start here...

Its probably a combination of factors.

- Overall the firearm industry has been in a slump for a couple of years which doesn’t help.

-  I think there is still a hangover affect from the 41F change and there are a not insignificant number of folks for whom submitting pics and prints is a deal breaker.

- The wait time certainly doesn’t help, where you are looking at roughly a year for a F4 approval.

- There are a couple of more former “machinegun states” with magazine bans in place (Colorado, Vermont, Maryland) and probably more on the way.   This has a downward effect on pricing when its either difficult and/or illegal to procure standard capacity magazines for future owners in those States.  (i.e. where does somebody in Colorado today easily or legally get an AM180 drum or M11 mags unless they happened to own them prior to the law change.)

- Pricing also may have just hit a point where the market pool of interested buyers with the financial means to buy transferable machineguns has hit a ceiling. (or they would rather have a new boat, motorcyle, swimming pool, etc.)

-There is also a sort of financial relief valve in terms of pricing where some percentage of buyers stop buying transferables and get an FFL/SOT and roll their own.   Watching the machinegun community over the years, there are a lot of folks who buy a couple entry level transferables, then get an FFL/SOT as they are priced out of the next tier/class of machineguns,  maybe sell their transferables to fund the FFL/SOT endeavor,  then over time get burned out by the headache of maintaining an FFL/SOT (and/or get hit with ITAR payments), and eventually dump the FFL/SOT and post samples.

- The very public bumpstock ban may also weigh on some folks minds as it was a clear example that the government can force you to destroy your formerly legal property with no requirement for compensation.

Ultimately all of these factors just add up to remove a certain percentage of buyers from the marketplace.   If you only have 75% of the number of buyers out there you did 5 years ago and the same or more guns coming up for sale, its inevitable that pricing will come down in order to move them.

Maybe the results of the next election cycle will kick potential buyers into gear thinking it’s their last chance to get that gun they want.   Alternatively, maybe we have hit “peak machinegun” and we now know where the pricing limit is and any future gains in price will be more along of the lines of inflation adjustments.

Will eForm 4’s help if they have the same timeline for approval, I can’t image they wouldn’t not help.  The question is how much of the current pricing slump is due exclusively to wait time vs. a bunch of other factors.

I can say from my personal datapoint of “1” that the current wait times have not changed my personal buying habits.   For me its more of a cost issue, where there isn’t a whole lot out there I still want at current pricing levels.   As example, I would buy less machineguns if pricing went up 50% but wait times were half as long, vs. I would probably buy more if pricing got cut in half but I had to wait twice as long for the transfer.  Again that is just me and other factors may weigh more or less heavily on others.

Either way its obvious it no longer the mid to late 2000’s when guns were appreciating 20% (or more) per year in value and which were fueled by much lower pricing, print/pic free transfers, sub 90 day wait times, the internet educating folks on the NFA buying process for the first time, and the expiration of the AWB flooding the marketplace with mags and potential new buyers into overall EBR marketplace.

I would think inflation ( government dilution of the purchasing power of money) should continually tend to push up prices.

It's also possible as an older generation divests itself that there will be a glut of items offered for sale, tending to flatten prices during that sell off.

For more recent buyers it would be hard to let something go at a loss so that aspect will fight the long term holders/sellers.

If buyers dry up, prices will flatten or sink.  For as much money as some people spend on depreciating tickled up Glocks, boutique ARs, thermal and NV, and other high end aspects I can't see a major retraction in prices for the long haul barring some legislative upset.  Sure as shit they aren't repealin the NFA any time soon.

im not here to put smiles on others faces, if they want machineguns go and get them or rent them.

the wait times finished me off. i have the cans i wanted, and doubles of them as spares. i dumped alot of rounds in twenty years. more then 150,000.
i reload also. im over the mag and belt dumps into the dirt. i enjoy carbine training more then anything these days. precision next. and so on.

sure dealers will give you 80%. but im not giving it away so a dealer can make 20% for just doing some paperwork. the wait times and prices
put most people out of the game. and between the two, its the wait times. its 2019, and there is no reason , no reason it should be a year plus.
people dont want to sign a check for 40,000 plus and wait over a year. shit they dont want to wait for a car dealer to prep the car the next day.

when i bought my guns, F4 was thirty days. and it wasnt all that long ago. so we went backwards ? i dunno.. it is what it is. i shoot every weekend.
but my buying machinegun days are over. ill shoot others, rent them etc... dont have to sit for hours cleaning beltfeds etc.

thats where im at with it.

more people thinking like me instead of getting laughed at is making me think I should have sold off some stuff a while ago...

I can't get my buddies to buy anymore NFA stuff becuase of the wait and the increased hassle of submission.  I could barely get them to move in the before 41f days.

EOD, cans are overrated unless you can shoot somewhere other than a public range.   Braces have killed a big part of the SBR market.  And the younger generation is too poor to buy machine guns.  And the hassle and wait is killing off the market with older buyers.  The hassle and wait becomes a big PITA when you are 60 or 70 plus...  hell you might not live long enough to shoot it.

Solution: buy now while prices are good... have it transferred via its F3 to your dealer... wait to file F4 when they go automated.

Waits have been long for years now, and the market was much hotter then, so i’m not convinced that’s the issue. I think it’s a combo of a soft firearms market in general combined with 41f and the recent bumpstock ban. While it constituted an unconstitutional making of law in my opinion, it nonetheless was very public and scary as well. I

There was a thread sometime back questioning the impact of binary triggers on machine gun prices.  Maybe this current flat spot or dip is partly the result of a cheaper, no wait, good enough pseudo-alternative.

It's big leap from a binary trigger to an MP5 sear.  I don't think they are the same markets.

I like to tinker with the Franklin, so far binaries can do a good burst impression, but its generally not the same as a machine gun in full auto.  Only exception I have found so far, M&P15-22 with a Franklin Binary, it does a better job at seeming full auto than the 22 kit in my Lage.  At least the S&W makes it through an entire mag and its definitely gives you a full auto feel.

Agreed.

I have no doubt that it does, I'm just saying I don't think too many buyers are sitting around saying 'Hmmm.... binary trigger, or sear?'.