I think it's probably a little bit of both right now. Obviously because we have a very anti-gun regime taking office the demand for stuff that people think will be banned is extremely high. In addition COVID is still rampant around the world so manufacturers likely still aren't back operating at full capacity. And to add to that we're likely looking at an impending import ban so manufacturers are probably watching as they don't want to get stuck with a bunch of inventory like you said.
The reality is some of the large firearm companies will be able to eventually skirt the import ban. Companies like CZ and Heckler & Koch. If an import ban is implemented, they'll likely be affected in the short-term, but they'll retool their manufacturing facilities over here and start making stuff here that are hit by the ban like the CZ Scorpion, CZ Bren 2, HK SP5, etc. They can afford to.
A lot of other European firearm companies already make their stuff over here in stateside manufacturing facilities so they won't be affected by an import ban. Guns like the Steyr AUG, IWI Galil ACE and X95, FN SCAR, Beretta ARX, etc., are manufactured in U.S. facilities so an import ban won't affect them. CZ, Heckler & Koch, and some of the other larger companies will likely just retool here and follow the same pattern. It'll take a while, but we'll probably see their guns make it back here.
The most affected will likely once again be the combloc AK market. Arsenal, Zastava, WBP Rogow, and Cugir. Once an import ban is struck you can kiss stuff like the Arsenal SLR/SAM series goodbye. No more WASR-10s, Zastava M70s, or any of that stuff. American manufacturers will need to take up the AK mantle. Also no more cheap steel surplus since Biden will likely ban imported ammo as well. That also means goodbye to some well known and loved ammo brands like PPU, Sellier & Bellot, etc.
That's likely what the situation will be as it stands now.