This is just a head's up to everyone that indications are that we are about to enter an extended period where supplies of our favorite ammo is going to be low or non-existant.  What I'm talking about here is specifically M193 and M855-spec ammo:

- Federal XM193 & XM855
- Winchester Q3131A
- IMI M193 and M855

You may already know that IMI has been in short supply for a while, and more recently, the Winchester (made by IMI) has also ran dry.  And now, Federal has temporarily discontinued the boxed XM193.  Currently, the only ammo commonly available are the loose-packed XM193PD and XM855PD.  As you may already know from this thread, this ammo is bulk-packed, and is definitely not 1st-tier ammo.  It is, in fact, QC rejects, and unlike previous boxed XM193, much of the "PD" ammo has problems more serious than just lack of sealant.

Why is this happening?  Simple: the War On Terror.  Ammo demands have continued to climb, especially in Iraq, but also due to a much higher training tempo here at home, and the US military's only ammo plant, Lake City, has not been able to keep up.  As a result, the military has been buying additional ammo from IMI as well as using ammo from the strategic reserves (i.e., storage).  It's clear that we can't keep using up all the reserve ammo, so more pressure has been put on Lake City (i.e., Federal/ATK) to maximize their military-usable ammo.  Even so, the military is still buying lots of ammo from IMI, who is also supplying ammo to many other countries in the region who are involved in the WoT.

The result is that IMI has suspended its contract to supply ammo to Winchester, and of course, they have not exported any 5.56 ammo for some time.  And now Federal is using 100% of Lake City's capacity for the war.  If we see any ammo from LC, it's likely to be more of the "PD" ammo, meaning stuff that was too bad to be used by the military.  I expect we'll see more XM855PD instead of XM193PD going forward, given that M855 is made in significantly higher volume.

Certainly, commercial ammo will continue to be available as always, but it isn't going to be loaded to military pressures/velocities, and it won't be crimped or sealed.  And it's more expensive.

Why am I posting this?  Simple: to make sure everyone knows what the situation is, so they can plan accordingly.  Understand that things could change (for better or worse) at any time, but as of now, the ammo situation looks pretty gloomy for 2005.

-Troy

P.S., please don't ask "where can I get some XXX ammo" or "what's the altenative ammo choice?" in this thread.  There are plenty of other threads on those subjects already, or you can start one of your own.

No way to know for sure, but I'd guess that you'll see American Eagle revert back to the crappy Federal .223 brass instead of the excellent Lake City military brass.

-Troy

You could probably make a decent profit by selling your stocks to the government!


I really don't shoot all that often, and I roll my own.   I have so little factory ammo around here
that most of you would look at me funny.   But that's OK because the way I figure it,
what I'm throwing at 3200 FPS is going to sting a little no matter what its specific bullet type
is.   If I should have to shoot something with a pulse,  I'll give it the whole mag if I have to.

I'm almost surprised that the .gov hasn't been handing out small contracts to every licensed ammo loader in the nation for ammo...for practicing, anyway.    It seems that it would be a reasonable option.


CJ

Quoted: I've been shooting a lot of Winchester USA223R1VP, which I understood to NOT be the IMI made stuff.  How might the shortage affect this?

It should still be around, but since a lot more demand will be shifted to the commercial .223 ammo (such as the load you describe), prices will likely rise and/or availability will be reduced.

Let me give you some made-up numbers to illustrate.

Let's say that in a normal year, Federal and Winchester each sell 5 million rounds of their M193 load each year, and that IMI adds another 2 million.  That's 12 million rounds, with a total of 7 million being made by IMI.  In addition, Winchester sells half a million domestically-made "white-box" .223 loads, as do Remington and Federal.  The domestic made stuff is much lower volume because high-volume shooters tend to buy by the case, and tend to prefer true M193-spec ammo over the ligher .223 loads.  Further, domestic production can't be increased significantly, because production time on the loading machines is calculated long in advance, and the same machines still have to produce all the other loads that are normally sold.

So, now, with 12 million rounds off the market, you've got 13.5 million rounds worth of demand chasing 1.5 million rounds of ammo.  Actually, let's adjust that.  We'll say that half of those 12 million rounds of missing ammo are made up by an increase in Russian ammo sales (I doubt they can increase production that much, but let's just assume).

Now, you have 7.5 million rounds worth of demand chasing 1.5 million actual rounds.  What do you imagine that's going to do to the supply/demand equation?

I'd say that the availability of domestic .223 is going to be reduced, and we may well see across-the-board price increases until supply can again meet the demand.

The worst part is that, due to the UN's "Small Arms Proliferation" treaty, the sources for a lot of good imported surplus is now gone, due to local interpretations of how to comply with that treaty.

It doesn't look good.

-Troy

Crap crap crap.  

Quoted: I was under the impression that the military had switched to M855 some time back. Why is M193 in short supply? Are we still issuing both? Hey Troy, any information on this? (You seem to have good sources.)

Yes, both ammo types are still produced, as there are STILL National Guard and Air Force Reserve folks using M16A1s and similar-era carbines, with 1:12 twists.  But the standard is M855 and 1:7-twist barrels, which makes up the bulk of what is produced and shot.  Lake City makes 40-50 times more M855 than M193.

The reason M193 will be in short supply is because those same machines are used to make M855 (bullets are manufactured separately, so that's not an issue), and those machines are running flat out to keep up with war demand, so there will no longer be any "free time" to make XM193 for us.

-Troy

I never, ever suggested that there would not be any .223 ammo.  Please read more carefully.  I'm saying that, in the near future, supplies of M193 and M855-spec ammo will be very low and likely very expensive, and that will drive up the price (and lower availability) of the more desirable "other-than-M193/M855" loads as well.

The point of the warning is so that people don't shoot all of their good ammo up, thinking that they'll be able to get more just as easily as they have been able to recently, and so that people who don't already have enough know to hurry up and buy what they need.

-Troy

Zero chance.

-Troy