"Whichever of the three Republicans wins the nomination, if they try to make the
issue of security post-Sept. 11 a defining issue and put the governor in a
negative light, it will be detrimental to their own standing," South said. "They
have no standing to talk about it."
That view is echoed by other analysts who say a public still jittery about
terrorism may be inclined to stick with incumbents.
"I think in some ways it gives Gov. Davis an advantage since he's in office,"
said Bill Carrick, a Democratic political consultant who is not involved in the
governor's race. "This is one area where he can ... take decisive action. For
governors and mayors, it gives them an opportunity to focus the public's
attention on their executive abilities."
Simon agreed that most incumbents would benefit, but added: "An exception is
Gray Davis. I believe he may be one of the few [who is voted out of office], and
I think that tells you something."
For Davis, the image intended to convey his law enforcement bona fides is the
recurring shot of him backed by men and women in uniform. He has tied up most of
the large rank-and-file and management law enforcement endorsements, primarily
by maintaining strong ties to state police, sheriffs and prison guard unions.
Davis' ads criticizing Riordan pointedly note, for instance, that even Los
Angeles police are not backing the former L.A. mayor.
Throughout the state, those unions responded to Davis' attention with campaign
contributions and are considered key to his reelection efforts. The prison
guards union, one of the most prolific campaign contributors among state labor
groups, donated more than $2 million to elect Davis in 1998.
Yet, some political consultants say Davis' law enforcement endorsements offer
only limited help.
"He still has to prove that he's good for public safety," McNally said. "In a
high-profile, top-of-the-ticket race like this, endorsements will only take you
so far."
Other political consultants say the Republican gubernatorial candidates, despite
their determination to make public safety an issue, have yet to do so
effectively, in part because they have not spelled out the differences among
them. Rather, they are poised to take the fight to Davis. They are, in the words
of Carrick, "in a classic minority mode where everything they do is positioned
against Davis."
The Republicans in the race and their consultants view it differently. They say
President Bush's high approval rating will help their chances against Davis, in
part because the governor is widely viewed as at odds with the president, on
issues ranging from public safety to energy. That, they add, will amplify what
they see as a natural Republican advantage on crime.
"If you're a Democrat, you work very hard to get someone in uniform to say
something nice about you," McNally said. "Education, environment are Democratic
issues. Tax relief, public safety typically are Republican."
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