No, I don't know when it's going to take place exactly (I'd guess next November plus/minus 60 days).  But the necessary diplomatic arrangements have already been made.  

Russia and China are quietly distancing themselves from Baghdad.  Turkey, Egypt, Jordan and Kuwait, while not eager, have quietly given thumbs up to the idea.

Saudi Arabia is also on board but can't show too much support for the US plan.  In fact because of internal pressures, they will publicly condemn the U.S. actions for a time, but will not interfere with Washington's plans and provide logistical support much like they did in Iraq numero uno.  So Saudi bashers..... just stifle it!!!

Conditions:  Iraqs borders will remain in tact.  No Kurdish or Shiite independent states!  Saddam and his regime MUST be removed permanently!  Israel will shut-up and sit on it's hands during the conflict! (Bush has already sat Sharon down and told him what he expects)!

Watch Iraq's actions over the next couple months!  They know what's coming and will try their diplomatic best.  There will be plenty of talk about human-rights and weapons inspectors being allowed to return to the country.

DaMan

No offense, but where are you getting all this stuff. Do you run the burn-bags at the state department or something? sources would be nice.

How about setting the stage to build more cruise missles.  We don't have many left unless they can reconfigure the nuke tipped ones to conventional.

I doubt we will attempt much until supplies of conventional model cruise missles are built back up or Lockheed ramps up production of the new JASSM version.

November plus or minus 60 days, I guess that would be September at the earliest?

I'm guessing sooner rather than later.  My guess would be August +/- a month.  Fourth of July fireworks?

Huhuh - he said 'JASSM" Huhuhhh

Shut up buttmunch

Dont know about anybody else, but I'd love to see another asskicking like 73easting or Medinah ridge! Not to mention seeing a true tyrant removed from a position of power.

Uh.....whats' a "burn bag"? [?][:P]

No, HappyBlaster!  This is all based on "open source" publications.

DaMan

I thought Lockheed has recently been cranking 'em out like crazy!  This isn't the case?

DaMan

Mike/flashman, I don't foresee the Turks getting involved other than logistically.

The Turks were trying their damndest to kill Kurds trying to get away from the Iraqis in Iraq numero uno!  It was pretty disgusting!  Civilian men, women, and children fleeing from Sadam's terror being killed, wounded or just driven back by heavy machinegun fire!

Enough said about the Kurd/Turk love fest!  They hate each other!

Turkey will supply logistics.  The Kurds will not take part!

My thoughts....could be wrong......but doubt it!

DaMan  

DaMan -

You may be right. Much truth in that last post.

I happen to think (hope) that the Turks will realize that this is “the opportunity” to solve their Kurdish problem.

“Kurdistan” - a new nation, conceived in.. Wait that’s us. What I meant to say is that the Turks could grant them local and internal control, while keeping total control over Kurdistan foreign policy and security. A win for both, at least in the short term. Long term doesn’t look so good.

Mike

Why change a perfectily good weapon [}:D]

New nations just open too many cans of worms, and a new Kurdistan would upset everybody we need to make it work, namely the Turks.

I suspect the US will try to do the Afghanistan template over again, with forward air controllers and SF assisting and aircraft bombing. They'll have to put more forces on the ground, though. Iraq still has a semi-legit army and probably some missiles squirreled away, so we'll need more force applied more quickly to finish it fast.

Probably several months off. The US still needs to prosecute all the intel leads they picked up in Afghanistan and roll up what they can of al Qaeda before moving on to the next target.

mcgredo -

You make some good points. A new country formed from the remnants of old ones can be “destabilizing”. In this case I hope it is not.

However it goes, I hope it goes well.

Help!  My limb is slowly being sawn off.

Mike

Lets see...In Bush's State of the Union Address he just stopped short of declaring war on Iraq, Iran, and North Korea.  Then he called for the largest military spending increase/budget in several decades.  This coupled with the overall patriotic feelings going on in the USA.

Yea....I would say Daman is pretty much right on +/- 60 days.

Sgtar15

PS Anyone else notice the large number of patriotic pro-US war movies made within the last year??  Coincidence???

Frankly, I'm surprised that there is almost universal agreement with the scenario I've presented.  

I guess I'll have to muck up the water a bit by throwing in some events that COULD occur which would knock the above plan off track.....

Infighting in Afghanistan:  I'm not talking about the petty little pissing contests currently taking place between rival warlords.... I'm talking about events serious enough to topple the Karzai government and requiring US intervention of some sort.  I think fighting to control the opium trade could be the catalist for such an event.

Major conflict in another country:  One that would require US involvement/intervention.  Indonesia and the Philipines come to mind.

Sadam changes his ways:  Well, this isn't going to happen!  But he will do his best to APPEAR that he has changed his ways.  He may even let in some human rights and arms inspectors and allow them to go on "guided tours" seeing what he wants them to see. But I don't think the US will fall for this crap again!

DaMan  

I wonder how we will invade?  The eastern border with Turkey could be difficult politically and logistically.  It is a long drive to Bagdhad and those mountains are a bitch.  As our good friends in Saudi will not allow us to invade from there, that only leaves Kuwait.  The front there, IIRC, is fairly narrow and there are some marshes and the river system to go through.  Not ideal either.  Jordan is probably the best approach for a heavy force, but that will not happen.

I kind of assume we will assemble a single hammer blow, rather than pinpricks from several directions.  Maybe they will try light forces heavily supported in the air.  But I figure that little trick will not work as well against the more organized and heavily armed Iraqis.

Well that would be interesting especially seeing as, if all goes according to plan, I will probably be finsihing Marine Corps Shool of Infantry around that time.  If I can leave for boot camp in April, that would put me finishing in late June/early July.  School of Infantry is a little over 5 weeks.  That'd put me finishing in August/Sep.  Hmmm.....

I'm not sure you followed my original post.

Turkey is on board! There will be no problems operating from there.  In fact I've heard that Great Britain is planning on providing peacekeepers to Afghanistan for longer than the planned three months.  The plan was to have Turkish peacekeepers in place by that time, but perhaps they will be used elsewhere.

We will have the same access to Saudi bases  that have supported operations in Afghanistan.  No change there.  

I don't think this excursion will place the emphasis on heavy armor like Iraq numero uno!

DaMan

U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney is scheduled to make a trip to Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Turkey and Kuwait in March. All countries that border Iraq.

Things seem to be moving a little faster than I thought!  But I'll stick with my original prediction of between september 2002 and Jan. 2003 (Novewmber plus/minus 60 days) for the "event."

Don't look for lots of heavy armor!  This is going to be an operation like Afghanistan but on a bigger scale.

The biggest question now is who will replace Saddam's regime.  I'm thinking the new regime will be headed by the Iraqi military.

DaMan

Edited to reflect correct dates of original prediction!

How can you stick with your original prediction when you're moving the timeframe back two months?

I think the biggest factor in when we strike will be the rebuilding of the armament supply.

Give Lockheed Martin and Raytheon (SP?) a few months to rebuild the supply of JDAMs and JSSAM's plus CALCMs.

I don't think it's a good idea to start dismanteling even more of our stratigic forces in for short term use. Clinton did that, which was a cop out instead of buying more missiles. Our Stratigic forces are in sad shape and don't need to be canibalized any more.

Sadam is a goner!!!!!!!!!!!!

[url]http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20020213/ts/attack_iraq_dc_4.html[/url]

[sniper]

Don't forget the German team of 250 anti-NBC troops that arrived in Kuwait last week, and the German group of battleships, patrolboats and such cruising around the port of Djibouti.

You hit the nail on the head, A_S.  This is the same story I've heard in a private conversation with a U.S. Congressman.  Clinton went to the cupboard too many times for conventional cruise missles without re-stocking.  The Congressman is also concerned about the stocks of other guided munitions.

You are correct, Renamed!  I originally said NOVEMBER plus/minus 60 days.  So that's sometime between September 2002 and January 2003!! [:O]

Thanks for the correction.  I feel safer with that guess anyhow!  Because things are moving faster than I originally thought.

DaMan   [b]NOVEMBER PLUS/MINUS 60 DAYS[/b]

Diss_ipator:  That Reuter article was very informative but it left out one very critical reason why Bush will hit Iraq.  It fails to mention that Bush [b]hates[/] Saddam.  Bush Sr. probably lost his re-election because he didn't finish the job in Desert Storm.  Bush Jr. won't make the same mistake! It's more than just a war to Bush Jr., [b]IT'S A FEUD[/b]!!! [;)]

DaMan  

It's about frikkin' time we got a prez w/some balls.  No one should be able to attack our country without retribution (or our allies for that matter).  There would be no point to the Afghan war if they just run to Iraq or somewhere else to do the same crap all over again.

This point is probably the most over looked item of all!!  

[red][b]Bush vs Sadam II
Coming Nov 3, 02...just $59.99 on Pay-Per-View[/b][/red]

Sgtar15

Well, it's been a month since the last post on this topic, and it seems as though the dogs are about to be "let slip..."

Anybody want to revise their estimate?

No I think that estimate is correct. Even if we are anxious for it to start much of the rest of the world isn't yet. Also I think we need those next 5-7 months to build ordinance. People will eventually come around to our position but the ordinance still takes time.

Also watch Norfolk. If the [i]Wisky[/i] gets moved to drydock that means something is up. If they are going to do a amphibious landing they need her, she is the only [i]Iowa[/i] that can be returned to service on short notice.

I am fairly ticked that the new budget did not include money for the reconstruction of [i]Wisconsin[/i] and [i]Iowa[/i] for another round of service. They need new sensors, VLS and RAM, and new ammo. Oh, and trying to wring a few more deg of elevation out of the gun mounts would be helpful too.

I mean, if a 50 year old B-52 is still useful, why not a 60 year old battleship if you put the same amount of upkeep in them. A GPS guided 16" shell would be very useful.

Ask Enron and/or Andersen accounting. THey know all about document destruction.....

Bump for the cause

Even though I’m out on a limb, I’ll raise you a bump.

Wisky means Wisconsin?

Mike

Yes the [i]USS Wisconsin[/i] is called Whisky by those who served on battleships.

Fill your gas tank now, the price of gas is gonna go through the roof.

If it does it will be a gouge. Why do you think we are making deals with Russia, Georga, and Mexico?  What do you think the amnisty deal for immigrants is about?

The oil companies try to raise the gas prices EVERY spring. They cite the current excuse, then start raising it until everybody starts screaming, level off, finally backs down, cycle repeats etc.

If the Wisconsin is going to be refitted, it wouldn't be wise to announce it to the world.  That would give Saddam some idea of the composition of the US naval force, and what they would be capable of.

If it is going to be brought back (personally, I doubt it, regardless of how cool it would be), it would be refitted in a small, low-key manner.  It would, however, have to be moved from its current berthing in the Hampton Roads Naval Museum in Norfolk, Virginia to a nearby shipyard.  There aren't many ways to spirit away a 58,000 tonne battleship without catching some attention.  

I doubt that amphibious assault will be the main method of attack in Desert Storm II.  The US has lost too much naval power over the Clinton Years to be able to mount a proper seabourne invasion (no tank landing ships, fewer CVNs, fewer amphibious assault vessels).  Also keep in mind that any amphibious operations in DS1 would've taken place in occupied Kuwait;  Iraq is landlocked.  Unless a neighboring country is pre-emptively invaded, there'll be no marines storming any beaches in DS2.

To determine what country the attack will come from, take a look at their ports.  Which ports have cranes capable of lifting the 65+ tonne M1 Abrams?  USN ships can't unload them unassisted anymore, AFAIK.  

However, the day of the MBT could be over, if you believe some strategists.  This might be the first major ground war since WW1 without the participation of heavy armour.  I personally don't subscribe to that logic, but it would seem that the higher-ups in the US military do.  The lack of ability to move large numbers of M1s from place to place, coupled with the surge in contracts for LAVs could mean that the tank, as it is currently seen, could be a thing of the past.  LAVs can be moved economically by air, and can be moved around more easily by sea.  This lengthens the list of places that the US could attack from.  

I think that we need more time and information to formulate any kind of prediction of the US strategy.  

Looks to me like Bush plans to cut off the head instead of attacking the body.

Once a new U.S. approved leader is in charge there will be little reason to attack.  But can it be done without attacking first?  Chicken or the egg.

It's possible we're closer to action than many think. The big tour by Cheney or other heavyweights has been happening a month or two in advance of military action up till now. Rummy was touring the xUSSR republics a month or so before Afghanistan. I don't think they'd make the tour six months in advance, since they'd just have to go back and do more hand-holding by the time they got ready to attack.

I stand by my original prediction!  November plus/minus 60 days.  

There are many variables coming into play here.  But they seem to counteracting each other to make my original prediction likely.

Israel playing "hard ass" just as Cheney goes to the Middle East and Zinney arrives to mediate Israeli/Palastinian feud. ..... Sets back invasion of Iraq.

Various factions in Afghanistan fighting for control and remnents of Taliban and al Qaeda still in country.  Possible need for more US troops to support Hamed Karzai's wobbly government.  ....Sets back invasion of Iraq.

Sadam WILL allow inspectors into the country.  This will also ....... set the invasion of Iraq back.

DaMan

Dominus, the mouth of the Tigris and Euprhates is controled by Iraq. And the seaport of Basra is there, Iraq's second largest city. Even if they come through Kuwait, Kuwait is small enough Wisconsin can shoot over it.

... whadda ya mean gonna?

... it went up 15 cents/gallon overnight in Mesa

DaMan is right,
 everything im hearing is november +/- 30. the preparations are obvious at every level in the military. just ask a reservist or guard member you know. we're getting shots, updating wills, drawing new gear our unit could never afford before. all this in the last 2 months.

I too had to get shots updated, admin updated my SRB and we got issued new gear.  Also requalified in NBC.  (Gas Chamber)

Smalls

LCpl of Marines

If I were Saddam, I'd buy some commercial satellite photos of the major plants producing cruise missiles and "smart" weapons.  I'd want to know how full the parking lots are for second and third shift. [;)]