The market is about to be flooded.

[ARCHIVED THREAD] - The market is about to be flooded. (Page 1 of 2)

Posted: 12/24/2008 10:15:59 AM EDT

If you haven't already noticed, the stuff that is way overpriced on the EE, is starting to sit. I am starting to notice rifles getting price drops, almost down to there value, and yet nobody is buying them. ARs and AKs are just sitting now, at a hundred dollars above real value. Pete in NH is starting to post ads again, so I can only assume he has some stock. Spikes has lowers in stock and is shipping NOW. I called and spoke with them, they told me they are about 2 weeks behind on orders, but thats better than it has been. Essential Arms has lowers in stock and is shipping, and Del-Ton claims they will be swimming in stuff in a couple of weeks.

This market is about to flip. I don't know how long it will stay flipped, but I see in the near future, those 600 rifles selling for 1000 now won't bring in but what they cost to build if not less. I think we will have a period of a few months where we can get whatever we want....at VERY low prices. I am glad I sold a bunch of my surplus when I did. I got down to just my SP1, a RRA pistol, and 1 retro rifle. I would still like to sell the retro, but I don't see that happening.

Is this just wishful thinking, or does anybody else see this coming as well?

Posted: 12/24/2008 9:58:30 AM EDT

[#1]

I am with you. Only a matter of time before the supply catches and overtakes the demand. I sold off what I could, for a good profit, last month. I will be standing in line when the sales hit shortly.

Posted: 12/24/2008 10:00:10 AM EDT

[#2]

I think if someone was really buying into the crazy hype they have bought at the high prices. Now the over priced stuff is sitting there.

So now it's a waiting game, will people just buy at the higher prices or will they just wait till the dealers get tired of looking at their stuff gathering dust.

Posted: 12/24/2008 10:04:11 AM EDT

[#3]

Last 2 gun shows there were tables and tables full of AR15s.
A bunch of Aks starting at $525.00 were still available.
Most of the folks were buying ammo...not guns. Those were my observations.

Posted: 12/24/2008 10:05:06 AM EDT

[#4]

I was speaking with a friend that sells regularly at the gun shows around here. At the late November show in Des Moines a few weeks ago, the show as a whole did more business in three days than it had in the six shows prior. At the same Des Moines show last weekend, attendance was still practically record, but sales had fallen considerably. Lots of rifles, and lots of people looking at them, but far fewer sales.

I know using an Iowa gun show as a divining rod is somewhat problematic, but it gives me some hope of seeing the market come back to reasonable levels.

Posted: 12/24/2008 10:08:20 AM EDT

[#5]

Quoted:
Last 2 gun shows there were tables and tables full of AR15s.
A bunch of Aks starting at $525.00 were still available.
Most of the folks were buying ammo...not guns. Those were my observations.

At last months gun show, I found AK's as low as $425(most were in the $475-$500 range). At this months show I could only find $650 as a low. I hope prices drop on AR accessories.

Posted: 12/24/2008 10:08:44 AM EDT

[#6]

I for one do not see a need to buy anything for more than it was worth 3 months ago. I can still go to deltons sight, buy a 16" ultralight kit, for $465.00, a stripped lower for 105, and have a complete rifle for 570 + shipping and ffl transfer of the lower. This is still a complete rifle under 600 bucks. Yes I will have to wait 3-5 weeks to get it, but so what, it is worth saving 400 dollars to me. YMMV

Posted: 12/24/2008 10:10:14 AM EDT

[#7]

I agree. The time has come.

It will all jump back up again IF a ban was about to be passed.

Posted: 12/24/2008 10:13:46 AM EDT

[#8]

Even now you can put together a reasonably priced AR if you know where to look and catch the online dealers at the right time. I ordered a Sabre Defense Custom upper with fluted stainless middy barrel and Troy rails that PK Firearms had listed briefly last week for $645. I got the last LMT bolt for $130 from Quantico Arms at the same time and the Spike's tactical lower was shipped yesterday (cost $250 for lower with complete LPK installed). So I'll have a pretty nice precision build for what I'd pretty much normally pay in the past.

Posted: 12/24/2008 10:14:51 AM EDT

[#9]

Quoted:
I agree. The time has come.

It will all jump back up again IF a ban was about to be passed.

I think it will be a different story then however. Suppliers will be swamped, but your people who bought cheap and stacked deep won't be unloading then, as they know there stuff will be worth twice as much after the ban. Not only that, but they will hold on to it for the same reason I never parted with my SP1....hard to replace.

Posted: 12/24/2008 10:19:09 AM EDT

[#10]

Just wait until Obongo takes office and the first attempt at a new AWB passes the House and moves on to the Senate. You have not yet seen ridiculous prices and short supply. This is when my WASR and Bushmaster will go up for sale.

Posted: 12/24/2008 10:20:32 AM EDT

[#11]

I think that what it is is the holiday season plus credit card bills are preventing people from buying these things...

Posted: 12/24/2008 10:21:39 AM EDT

[#12]

With sales way down in everything elese, it was only a matter of time before demand began to cool.

I may look to buy another AK at some point if prices come back down.

Posted: 12/24/2008 10:23:42 AM EDT

[#13]

Do you mean to say all the panic buying was silly and premature?

- Shocked face.

Posted: 12/24/2008 10:24:33 AM EDT

[#14]

Quoted:
If you haven't already noticed, the stuff that is way overpriced on the EE, is starting to sit. I am starting to notice rifles getting price drops, almost down to there value, and yet nobody is buying them. ARs and AKs are just sitting now, at a hundred dollars above real value. Pete in NH is starting to post ads again, so I can only assume he has some stock. Spikes has lowers in stock and is shipping NOW. I called and spoke with them, they told me they are about 2 weeks behind on orders, but thats better than it has been. Essential Arms has lowers in stock and is shipping, and Del-Ton claims they will be swimming in stuff in a couple of weeks.

This market is about to flip. I don't know how long it will stay flipped, but I see in the near future, those 600 rifles selling for 1000 now won't bring in but what they cost to build if not less. I think we will have a period of a few months where we can get whatever we want....at VERY low prices. I am glad I sold a bunch of my surplus when I did. I got down to just my SP1, a RRA pistol, and 1 retro rifle. I would still like to sell the retro, but I don't see that happening.

Is this just wishful thinking, or does anybody else see this coming as well?

One flaw in what you wrote is that there is no "real value". Value is subjective. What was going for $400 a week ago could go for $800 now and $200 next week. Each value was appropriate at the time.

Posted: 12/24/2008 10:25:19 AM EDT

[#15]

MY wish is the prices do drop almost to pre election prices and the IDIOTS that paid way more than its worth realize "hey im a dumb ass" and will be selling for less a lot less than they paid and as far as price goughing companies go ill remember and not give them any of my $ to them

Posted: 12/24/2008 10:26:12 AM EDT

[#16]

Quoted:
I think that what it is is the holiday season plus credit card bills are preventing people from buying these things...

Very true. I would hate to see the credit card bills of some of the panic buyers.

Posted: 12/24/2008 10:27:11 AM EDT

[#17]

I am glad. I did not jump on the profit wagon myself and held on to all my stuff. I could not in good conscious gouge my fellow ARFCOMERS however I did a few trades which were good for me and the other parties.

I will be awaiting the good deals to come.

Posted: 12/24/2008 10:31:02 AM EDT

[#18]

Quoted:
MY wish is the prices do drop almost to pre election prices and the IDIOTS that paid way more than its worth realize "hey im a dumb ass" and will be selling for less a lot less than they paid and as far as price goughing companies go ill remember and not give them any of my $ to them

meh....
I'll go where the deals are...

Is it me or is the NEW EE not doing much buisness?

Posted: 12/24/2008 10:32:02 AM EDT

[#19]

Bell Curve...

Posted: 12/24/2008 10:33:58 AM EDT

[#20]

So what you're saying is... the noobs blew their wads?

Posted: 12/24/2008 10:36:50 AM EDT

[#21]

Bound to happen

Posted: 12/24/2008 10:39:00 AM EDT

[#22]

Quoted:
Is it me or is the NEW EE not doing much buisness?

I don't think that many are aware of it. Those who do know about it but aren't using it will be forced to when the old EE disappears suddenly one day.

Posted: 12/24/2008 10:54:30 AM EDT

[#23]

Know anyplace that has G20 mags in stock for < $25?

Posted: 12/24/2008 10:59:32 AM EDT

[#24]

I bought heavily before the freak out and picked up a few things during the freak out that were still reasonably priced. An XD-9 Service model for $460+ 2 free mags, XD-9 16rd mags for $22 ea., DPMS AR mags for $12 ea., a case of 7.62x51 for the non-reasonable but also very steady $0.50/rd.

Speaking of the XD, I've been surprised at pistols, prices have hardly changed around here, +10% here and there. I thought that certain Obama quotes would drive those higher as well, guess not.

I agree there is an "oops, everybody's poor" lull forming, don't know where the bottom is.

ETA: AK, AR and SKS prices were ridiculous at a small gunshow last weekend and the crowd was thick. Very few buyers, however. And a ton of older guys were bringing in shotguns to sell or trade.

Posted: 12/24/2008 11:05:02 AM EDT

[#25]

Quoted:
Know anyplace that has G20 mags in stock for < $25?

www.copesdistributing.net shameless plug

Posted: 12/24/2008 11:08:10 AM EDT

[#26]

Quoted:
Last 2 gun shows there were tables and tables full of AR15s.
A bunch of Aks starting at $525.00 were still available.
Most of the folks were buying ammo...not guns. Those were my observations.

Same observation in houston last weekend, something is going to give on those tables full of ar's

Posted: 12/24/2008 11:09:58 AM EDT

[#27]

Cant see prices dropping to much for new stuff unless its grossly overpriced..Sellers all ready know what their item will bring in a panic, and the pres elect has not even hit office.More panic to come,
Bedsides most of the guys on the EE will not sell their rifles for $600 instead wait till the next panic and relist for $1000.

Posted: 12/24/2008 11:10:43 AM EDT

[#28]

Usually I just keep an eye on Aim Surplus, if I see the "Sorry, the Walk-in pick-up counter is CLOSED until further notice" id say we are still OK, until it opens up again id say they are still busy, but I think your right, it may soon go back down.

Posted: 12/24/2008 11:11:57 AM EDT

[#29]

Wait till Jan 20th.

Posted: 12/24/2008 11:17:59 AM EDT

[#30]

Glad I sold when I did

Posted: 12/24/2008 11:23:57 AM EDT

[#31]

I think the economy has gone way south and people just aren't spending the money if they even had any (laid off?)

If my presumption will be overlooked, I think some of the posts in this thread are wishful thinking.

In the gun shows mentioned where things were still sitting on tables, it would have been interesting to note if the crowds were lighter than normal or normal. That would seem to indicate two possibilities (saturated market/poor economy)

I went to a gun show on the 15th and the crowd was the largest I've ever seen at that venue. Maybe it's regional? Meanwhile I'll keep dreaming too but I have a feeling we're only seeing the beginning.

Thanks

Posted: 12/24/2008 11:24:14 AM EDT

[#32]

My guns are tools not investments.

Posted: 12/24/2008 11:28:07 AM EDT

[#33]

Quoted:
Do you mean to say all the panic buying was silly and premature?

- Shocked face.

I'm warming up my buying muscles for the great AR price crash!

Maybe I'll be able to find a LPK for under $100 again

Posted: 12/24/2008 11:32:16 AM EDT

[#34]

I am moving back in about a month and I will have about $10K to blow...

I am patiently waiting for the tide to roll in...

Posted: 12/24/2008 11:33:15 AM EDT

[#35]

Quoted:
Just wait until Obongo takes office and the first attempt at a new AWB passes the House and moves on to the Senate. You have not yet seen ridiculous prices and short supply. This is when my WASR and Bushmaster will go up for sale.

I agree you have'nt seen anything yet. Many here seem to think the Dem's will have more pressing issues. I disagree. They'll look to pass legislation that will not increase tax's right off. A AWB could easly be piggy backed on another Bill anyways.

As far as gunshow prices that has alot to do with what part of the country your in. I really don't look for a slow down for a good while, maybe mid summer.

All one needs to do is check inventory, or lack of it at the site sponsers on the board.

Posted: 12/24/2008 11:53:55 AM EDT

[#36]

If things have eased a bit lately, it will be due to a number of factors.

1. Christmas is here and people had gifts to buy
2. There has already been a binge in buying, like a first wave
3. Credit card bills are piling up
4. There will be a pause until BHO is in and people get their tax refunds
5. Suppliers ramped up during this craze and they have started to catch up so people aren't able to get ridiculous prices on EE now that retailer have items in stock or just a few weeks out

Just my 2 cents. Merry Christmas all.

Posted: 12/24/2008 12:38:08 PM EDT

[#37]

FWIW . . . Lewis Machine Tools advised me toady that "All products are 16 to 20 week minimum for delivery of new orders."

Posted: 12/24/2008 1:00:49 PM EDT

[#38]

Very true. I would hate to see the credit card bills of some of the panic buyers.

I will make a very cold comment. TS!

The people buying ammo are doing so for some simple reasons: 1. they already have the guns that they need; 2. they are aware that the shipping prices will go up about 6% next month; 3. if they live in California, they understand that the Governor wants another 1.5% added to the sales tax and a 5% increase in the income tax.

Come on folks, you all knew that there would be panic buying when a Democrat was elected President (with the exception of the idiots doing the panic buying).

Next. How about a poll on all those buying stripped lowers.

a. parts kits will be readily available next year as people build out;
b. a stripped lower is better than a boat anchor if shtf next week;
c. ammo prices will come down drastically next year;
d. the recent increase in AR15 mags by 30% is a fluke and will come down next year.

If you answered yes to all 4 questions, you are a panic buyer and a dunce.

Posted: 12/24/2008 1:05:44 PM EDT

[#39]

Quoted:
If you haven't already noticed, the stuff that is way overpriced on the EE, is starting to sit. I am starting to notice rifles getting price drops, almost down to there value, and yet nobody is buying them. ARs and AKs are just sitting now, at a hundred dollars above real value. Pete in NH is starting to post ads again, so I can only assume he has some stock. Spikes has lowers in stock and is shipping NOW. I called and spoke with them, they told me they are about 2 weeks behind on orders, but thats better than it has been. Essential Arms has lowers in stock and is shipping, and Del-Ton claims they will be swimming in stuff in a couple of weeks.

This market is about to flip. I don't know how long it will stay flipped, but I see in the near future, those 600 rifles selling for 1000 now won't bring in but what they cost to build if not less. I think we will have a period of a few months where we can get whatever we want....at VERY low prices. I am glad I sold a bunch of my surplus when I did. I got down to just my SP1, a RRA pistol, and 1 retro rifle. I would still like to sell the retro, but I don't see that happening.

Is this just wishful thinking, or does anybody else see this coming as well?

Thanks for letting the cat out of the bag

I've even made space in the safe for all the good deals right around the corner.

Posted: 12/24/2008 1:09:09 PM EDT

[#40]

I think the market will speed up after the inauguration, but in the spring there will be stock galore. That's when I make my move.

Posted: 12/24/2008 1:16:49 PM EDT

[#41]

Quoted:

Quoted:
Know anyplace that has G20 mags in stock for < $25?

www.copesdistributing.net shameless plug

I got some of the best deals this year from Copes.
Even after the election frenzy. Actually, some were AFTER it.

One of the things that I will remember about 2008 is Roger's integrity
and ability to continue to provide it's customers with great products
despite a crazy market.

Posted: 12/24/2008 1:19:45 PM EDT

[#42]

Quoted:
My guns are tools not investments.

That's me. I sold a few guns years back and will never sell again. Unless I need to eat or I am about to lose my current living area. Food and shelter are the only things.

Posted: 12/24/2008 1:21:45 PM EDT

[#43]

At some point they will run out of idiots.

I'm thinking they can crank out hardware faster than idiots can be created.

ETA: I just bought a mixed assortment of (mostly barrel related) parts from Bushmaster. No B/O, only holdup was a snowstorm that whacked their electricity. Probably could have saved a few bucks buying elsewhere, but they had them ready to go.

Posted: 12/24/2008 1:32:22 PM EDT

[#44]

Quoted:

Quoted:
Is it me or is the NEW EE not doing much buisness?

I don't think that many are aware of it. Those who do know about it but aren't using it will be forced to when the old EE disappears suddenly one day.

that will suck.

Posted: 12/24/2008 1:32:30 PM EDT

[#45]

i sure hope so

Posted: 12/24/2008 1:37:07 PM EDT

[#46]

people's credit card debt is catchin up with them

Posted: 12/24/2008 1:41:22 PM EDT

[#47]

Who knows.

A old man once told me.....
Son, only two things come down.....

Rain & Snow.

I've seen some price drops in surplus 5.45 ammo. 7.62x39 seems to be holding its price from the last increase(s). .223 ammo is still way up there in price and there was plenty at the fun show last week-end in Palm Beach and people were buying it. Rifle prices were high and lots of people shopping/looking. The transfer tables had lots of people filling out BATF forms. The Stag upper I picked up a year ago was now $400.00 more from the same ffl dealer I bought mine from. Nice AK kits with barrels are getting scarce and expensive. There were none at the show.

I really don't see any "Fire-Sales" in the future and if there is any BO sponsored AW restrictions or outright ban the prices will go thru the roof. With high cap mags and ammo becoming scarce.

Again...Who know what's going to happen?
I'll keep looking for "deals" when ever and where ever I can find one.

Posted: 12/24/2008 1:43:01 PM EDT

[#48]

Quoted:
Do you mean to say all the panic buying was silly and premature?

- Shocked face.

Nope. It was logical and sensible and should not stop until everyone has had at least ten AR15 rifles, a minimum of 500 30 round magazines, and a two story ammo fort.

Seriously though, I just want to be able to order a midlength barrel without paying an arm and a leg or waiting two months. This panic buying is frustrating the heck out of me.

Posted: 12/24/2008 1:51:11 PM EDT

[#49]

One overlooked item regarding Gunshows
while it may not appear that folks are buying, but you see "large crowds".
Keep in mind, the avereage wait time for a BG check (where required by law) is running 1-3hrs min.
Sure there are a lot of empty handed folks @ the shows. However what are they carrying out after their BG check gets an approval.
here in CO we have guns stacked deep while their BG check is in process, average wait 3hrs IF you show up after 10-11am to buy. before that about 45min-1hr

Posted: 12/24/2008 1:51:52 PM EDT

[#50]

Quoted:
Glad I sold when I did

http://www.theplaceholder.com/forums/imagehosting/544939b4b7c6954.jpg

Did you get a new $12 fan with the profits?

[ARCHIVED THREAD] - The market is about to be flooded. (Page 1 of 2)

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