Don't Anybody Freak - Fox Poll

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[ARCHIVED THREAD] - Don't Anybody Freak - Fox Poll (Page 1 of 2)

Posted: 11/1/2004 8:18:52 AM EDT

Fox is reporting a 2 point Kerry lead. I have no idea where they are getting this from, all I can imagine is they have a flawed sample set comprised exclusively of weekend numbers. Could they be right? Yes. Do I think they are right? No. They are still showing 6 percent undecideds, and many of the recent polls are showing undecideds at this stage of the game breaking toward the incumbant... contrary to the claims of democrats breaking for the challenger. That is indeed the case... in congressional races.

I'm going to reserve judgement on this until I see that poll's internals. I am highly suspect and am guessing that this is indeed to rile up Republicans. We will see what the pundits on Fox say tongiht and who they have on to ask them about it.

Posted: 11/1/2004 8:21:00 AM EDT

[#1]

Dont weekend numbers always favor Skerry anyway??

Oh Great Pollmaster!!

Posted: 11/1/2004 8:21:05 AM EDT

[#2]

My ass is clinched so tight you couldn't drive a nail up it with a sledgehammer

Posted: 11/1/2004 8:22:07 AM EDT

[#3]

Oh my gawd!!! AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!
AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

AAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!
[nervous laugh]

Posted: 11/1/2004 8:24:30 AM EDT

[#4]

Quoted:
My ass is clinched so tight you couldn't drive a nail up it with a sledgehammer

Now there's a disturbing mental image!!!

Posted: 11/1/2004 8:26:30 AM EDT

[#5]

Bush needs a 4 point lead in order to overcome all the leftist voter fraud. I just don't see W pulling this out... too many idiots in this country at this point.

Posted: 11/1/2004 8:26:35 AM EDT

[#6]

Quoted:
Quoted:
My ass is clinched so tight you couldn't drive a nail up it with a sledgehammer

Now there's a disturbing mental image!!!

He's got nothing on me--yesterday I tried to pull a needle out of mine with my tractor--and COULDN'T.

Posted: 11/1/2004 8:26:42 AM EDT

[#7]

Quoted:
Quoted:
My ass is clinched so tight you couldn't drive a nail up it with a sledgehammer

Now there's a disturbing mental image!!!

Posted: 11/1/2004 8:29:44 AM EDT

[#8]

Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
My ass is clinched so tight you couldn't drive a nail up it with a sledgehammer

Now there's a disturbing mental image!!!

He's got nothing on me--yesterday I tried to pull a needle out of mine with my tractor--and COULDN'T.

why did you have a needle up your ass?

Posted: 11/1/2004 8:30:52 AM EDT

[#9]

f*ck the polls, they are always biased but usually within the "margin of error". i personally don't understand the "margin of error" what kinf of f*cking morons are handling the polls anyway - yes/know/don't know - how hard is that to report on? and even if they are done via a computer, they just usually track you ip, so if you can switch your ip (not hard to do) you can change the poll by simply re-polling 1000xs. don't worry about a f*cking poll, go out and vote and if you candidate doesn't win, assume the election was fixed

Posted: 11/1/2004 8:32:22 AM EDT

[#10]

Well WTF

Posted: 11/1/2004 8:33:05 AM EDT

[#11]

Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
My ass is clinched so tight you couldn't drive a nail up it with a sledgehammer

Now there's a disturbing mental image!!!

He's got nothing on me--yesterday I tried to pull a needle out of mine with my tractor--and COULDN'T.

The next 36 hrs are going to be the longest most stressful in my life.

Even considering my wedding day and the birth of my son.
-LS

Posted: 11/1/2004 8:33:31 AM EDT

[#12]

The gun show vendors are hoping that the election will not be officially decided for a while. Can you imagine the carnage at the gunshows if that were to happen? The only limit to the prices asked( and paid) would be the nerve of the vendor.

Posted: 11/1/2004 8:34:12 AM EDT

[#13]

Only two polls show a Kerry lead... both have weekend samples... so yes, there is a natural bias built into the polls.

And no, voter fraud will not be anywhere near 4%. At most, when closely watched, they might get 1% off... but even that is a lot in races this tight.

All polls that include at least a partial weekday sample from last week show a Bush tie or lead, considering they include some weekend sampling I am inclined to gin them up a bit for Bush. Zogby and Rasmussen which are running three day rolling averages both show a slight Bush lead with an entire weekend sample (Friday night, Saturday and Sunday). We will likely see a bunch more tight polls today. One of the reasons these polls are showing such a neck and neck race, and why there are just so many of them, is that it creates a demand for more polls... which means more money for pollsters! In essence the pollsters are creating a demand for their services.

I mentioned this yestrday, because it was mentioned by the campaign, so I'm no longer bound not to tell it. Our internal polls show a bush lead in the neighborhood of 3% and the Democrat's numbers are showing they are losing. Look at what they are resorting to, they are flailing about. For Christ's sake, Kerry's step son called Bush a "coke head." That is nothing short of desperation and if they were in the lead they would be apologizing for that comment lest it backlash.

Posted: 11/1/2004 8:35:20 AM EDT

[#14]

Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
My ass is clinched so tight you couldn't drive a nail up it with a sledgehammer

Now there's a disturbing mental image!!!

He's got nothing on me--yesterday I tried to pull a needle out of mine with my tractor--and COULDN'T.

why did you have a needle up your ass?

Freak accident.

Posted: 11/1/2004 8:35:57 AM EDT

[#15]

Quoted:
f*ck the polls, they are always biased but usually within the "margin of error". i personally don't understand the "margin of error" what kinf of f*cking morons are handling the polls anyway - yes/know/don't know - how hard is that to report on? and even if they are done via a computer, they just usually track you ip, so if you can switch your ip (not hard to do) you can change the poll by simply re-polling 1000xs. don't worry about a f*cking poll, go out and vote and if you candidate doesn't win, assume the election was fixed

The margin of error occurs when you attempt to extrapolate a final number from a small sample... its the bell curve with confidence variables. The larger your sample, the closer it is to the whole, and thus the smaller chance of error.

Posted: 11/1/2004 8:37:47 AM EDT

[#16]

IMPEACH KERRY!

Posted: 11/1/2004 8:42:51 AM EDT

[#17]

hiram ranger, you're hilarious. if bush is up in a poll, it's because he's up. if kerry is up, sample set is flawed, poll is skewed because of this, poll is skewed because of that, etc. you are totally unreliable.

Posted: 11/1/2004 8:44:16 AM EDT

[#18]

I think Bush will pull it off, but I'm starting to get a little nervous about it. One thing to consider is Kerry's voter base.....alot of them will be quick to answer a question about who they support, but I will be willing to bet alot of them don't show up to the polls tomarrow. Lets hope for rain tomarrow and that should help us out some too.

Posted: 11/1/2004 8:44:22 AM EDT

[#19]

Quoted:
hiram ranger, you're hilarious. if bush is up in a poll, it's because he's up. if kerry is up, sample set is flawed, poll is skewed because of this, poll is skewed because of that, etc. you are totally unreliable.

Posted: 11/1/2004 8:45:21 AM EDT

[#20]

Quoted:
Quoted:
hiram ranger, you're hilarious. if bush is up in a poll, it's because he's up. if kerry is up, sample set is flawed, poll is skewed because of this, poll is skewed because of that, etc. you are totally unreliable.

usera.imagecave.com/arfcom/stfupope.jpg

you're going to hell. come over for drinks when you get there.

Posted: 11/1/2004 8:45:43 AM EDT

[#21]

It's ~~Bush's~~OBL's fault!

Posted: 11/1/2004 8:46:50 AM EDT

[#22]

Interesting.... and gutwrenching at the same time.

Posted: 11/1/2004 8:48:23 AM EDT

[#23]

Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
hiram ranger, you're hilarious. if bush is up in a poll, it's because he's up. if kerry is up, sample set is flawed, poll is skewed because of this, poll is skewed because of that, etc. you are totally unreliable.

usera.imagecave.com/arfcom/stfupope.jpg

you're going to hell. come over for drinks when you get there.

I know and bring ice.

Posted: 11/1/2004 8:54:08 AM EDT

[#24]

I looked at the internals in the FOX poll.

It is an entirely Saturday/Sunday sample:

MEN : 46B, 48K

WOMEN : 46B, 48K

NOW TELL ME THERE REALLY IS NO GENDER GAP!

Posted: 11/1/2004 8:54:40 AM EDT

[#25]

www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html
RealClearPolitics Poll Average composite has still got Bush ahead.
RCP Average
10/27-10/31
Bush: 48.4%
Kerry: 47.1%
Nader: 0.8%
Bush +1.3

Posted: 11/1/2004 8:56:04 AM EDT

[#26]

Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
My ass is clinched so tight you couldn't drive a nail up it with a sledgehammer

Now there's a disturbing mental image!!!

He's got nothing on me--yesterday I tried to pull a needle out of mine with my tractor--and COULDN'T.

why did you have a needle up your ass?

It started out a one inch reabar but he clinched so hard it crushed down to a needle.

Posted: 11/1/2004 8:59:28 AM EDT

[#27]

Sometime, rock, when the boys are up against it and the breaks are beating them! tell them to go in there with all they got and win just one for the gipper, i dunno where i'll be then rock, but i'll know about it and i'll be happy!

Posted: 11/1/2004 9:10:24 AM EDT

[#28]

Ummm SH, learn a little something about polling and WHEN a poll is done and you'll know it effects the outcome. Take the other polls with weekend and the tailend of weekday polling and look at those results.

Marist (987 LV) 10/31 48% 49% 1% Kerry +1
FOX News (1200 LV) 10/30 - 10/31 46% 48% 1% Kerry +2
TIPP (1041 LV) 10/29 - 10/31 47% 45% 1% Bush +2
Reuters/Zogby (1208 LV) 10/29 - 10/31 48% 47% 1% Bush +1
CNN/USA/Gallup(1573 LV)* 10/29 - 10/31 49% 49% 1% TIE
NBC/WSJ (1014 LV) 10/29 - 10/31 48% 47% 1% Bush +1
GW/Battleground (1000 LV) 10/27, 28, 31 49% 46% 0% Bush +3
CBS/NY Times (643 LV) 10/28 - 10/30 49% 46% 1% Bush +3
ARG (1258 LV) 10/28 - 10/30 48% 48% 1% TIE
Pew Research (1925 LV) 10/27 - 10/30 51% 48% 1% Bush +3
ABC/Wash Post (2047 LV)** 10/27 - 10/30 48% 48% 0% TIE
Newsweek (882 LV) 10/27 - 10/29 50% 44% 1% Bush +6

Two polls show a Kerry lead, Marist and Fox, and both are weekend only samples. ARG is a one day sample Saturday and shows a tie, ARG by the way is a Democrat polling firm.

Once again SH... that does stand for (edited by EdSr) right? Learn how polling samples effect outcomes and come talk to me. You are a troll, always have been, always will be.

Read below! EdSr

Posted: 11/1/2004 9:18:19 AM EDT

[#29]

Newsweek (882 LV) 10/27 - 10/29 50% 44% 1% Bush +6

and newsweek is never wrong

Posted: 11/1/2004 9:20:40 AM EDT

[#30]

Quoted:
Ummm SH, learn a little something about polling and WHEN a poll is done and you'll know it effects the outcome. Take the other polls with weekend and the tailend of weekday polling and look at those results.

Marist (987 LV) 10/31 48% 49% 1% Kerry +1
FOX News (1200 LV) 10/30 - 10/31 46% 48% 1% Kerry +2
TIPP (1041 LV) 10/29 - 10/31 47% 45% 1% Bush +2
Reuters/Zogby (1208 LV) 10/29 - 10/31 48% 47% 1% Bush +1
CNN/USA/Gallup(1573 LV)* 10/29 - 10/31 49% 49% 1% TIE
NBC/WSJ (1014 LV) 10/29 - 10/31 48% 47% 1% Bush +1
GW/Battleground (1000 LV) 10/27, 28, 31 49% 46% 0% Bush +3
CBS/NY Times (643 LV) 10/28 - 10/30 49% 46% 1% Bush +3
ARG (1258 LV) 10/28 - 10/30 48% 48% 1% TIE
Pew Research (1925 LV) 10/27 - 10/30 51% 48% 1% Bush +3
ABC/Wash Post (2047 LV)** 10/27 - 10/30 48% 48% 0% TIE
Newsweek (882 LV) 10/27 - 10/29 50% 44% 1% Bush +6

Two polls show a Kerry lead, Marist and Fox, and both are weekend only samples. ARG is a one day sample Saturday and shows a tie, ARG by the way is a Democrat polling firm.

Once again SH... that does stand for (edited by EdSr) right? Learn how polling samples effect outcomes and come talk to me. You are a troll, always have been, always will be.

if i wanted to learn more about polling, i definitely wouldn't take lessons from you, ya skewed (edited by EdSr). EVERY poll you've covered that had kerry on top has had a disclaimer. if you work directly for the GOP, then i understand why you operate the way you do. at any rate, i liken your posts to the bcs standings- complete bullshit. these polls of yours mean nothing.

You two better stop the name calling.SH,this is your second time outside the pit that I have to edit yuour post.Next time,you are out! EdSr

Posted: 11/1/2004 9:22:23 AM EDT

[#31]

Soros' stooges are hard at work stuffing every poll they can get their mitts on - EVERY online poll gets drilled by DUer's & their ilk. I think we will see disinformation and skewing of polls at levels never before seen.

the BOTTOM LINE, is that the polls mean nothing, YOUR VOTE means everything.

GO BUSH!!

Posted: 11/1/2004 9:26:43 AM EDT

[#32]

Quoted:
Quoted:
Ummm SH, learn a little something about polling and WHEN a poll is done and you'll know it effects the outcome. Take the other polls with weekend and the tailend of weekday polling and look at those results.

Marist (987 LV) 10/31 48% 49% 1% Kerry +1
FOX News (1200 LV) 10/30 - 10/31 46% 48% 1% Kerry +2
TIPP (1041 LV) 10/29 - 10/31 47% 45% 1% Bush +2
Reuters/Zogby (1208 LV) 10/29 - 10/31 48% 47% 1% Bush +1
CNN/USA/Gallup(1573 LV)* 10/29 - 10/31 49% 49% 1% TIE
NBC/WSJ (1014 LV) 10/29 - 10/31 48% 47% 1% Bush +1
GW/Battleground (1000 LV) 10/27, 28, 31 49% 46% 0% Bush +3
CBS/NY Times (643 LV) 10/28 - 10/30 49% 46% 1% Bush +3
ARG (1258 LV) 10/28 - 10/30 48% 48% 1% TIE
Pew Research (1925 LV) 10/27 - 10/30 51% 48% 1% Bush +3
ABC/Wash Post (2047 LV)** 10/27 - 10/30 48% 48% 0% TIE
Newsweek (882 LV) 10/27 - 10/29 50% 44% 1% Bush +6

Two polls show a Kerry lead, Marist and Fox, and both are weekend only samples. ARG is a one day sample Saturday and shows a tie, ARG by the way is a Democrat polling firm.

Once again SH... that does stand for "shit_head" right? Learn how polling samples effect outcomes and come talk to me. You are a troll, always have been, always will be.

if i wanted to learn more about polling, i definitely wouldn't take lessons from you, ya skewed bastard. EVERY poll you've covered that had kerry on top has had a disclaimer. if you work directly for the GOP, then i understand why you operate the way you do. at any rate, i liken your posts to the bcs standings- complete bullshit. these polls of yours mean nothing.

2,500

posts since January... aren't you a prolific little bugger? Go back to DUh... But before you do, try reading you loser... www.nationalreview.com/kerry/kerryspot.asp

Posted: 11/1/2004 9:28:19 AM EDT

[#33]

Quoted:
hiram ranger, you're hilarious. if bush is up in a poll, it's because he's up. if kerry is up, sample set is flawed, poll is skewed because of this, poll is skewed because of that, etc. you are totally unreliable.

If the poll is skewed it is nice to know why. The polls after the first debate were genuine and not debated. It is fact that many pollsters and news outlets are either proliberal or it is in their best interest to have a tie for rating sake. If Bush were ahead 60-40 they would do everything in their power to close the gap to keep rating up.

Bush will win.

Planerench out.

Posted: 11/1/2004 9:32:20 AM EDT

[#34]

Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
hiram ranger, you're hilarious. if bush is up in a poll, it's because he's up. if kerry is up, sample set is flawed, poll is skewed because of this, poll is skewed because of that, etc. you are totally unreliable.

usera.imagecave.com/arfcom/stfupope.jpg

you're going to hell. come over for drinks when you get there.

I know and bring ice.

Posted: 11/1/2004 9:33:24 AM EDT

[#35]

HR obviously knows his shit. SH is an angry democrat (demonrat).

President Bush will win.

'Nuff said.

Posted: 11/1/2004 9:43:31 AM EDT

[#36]

I'm not infallable, but I can spot a bad polling sample when I see it... a poll run exclusively on the weekend... strike one... a poll that shows NO gender gap... give me a break. While all polls are pretty much showing Bush and Kerry neck and neck, they also show Bush with a clear lead among men and men traditionally have been more likely to vote.

In any event, when Kerry loses tomorrow SH should have no reason to remain here and can run hoime to DUh to lick his "wounds."

Posted: 11/1/2004 9:49:34 AM EDT

[#37]

Yeah, and SH can apply some of this as necessary:

Posted: 11/1/2004 9:50:21 AM EDT

[#38]

I had a small amount of gray hair once....

I can't even concentrate enough to work; I should go home and dock my pay.

-LS

Posted: 11/1/2004 10:22:39 AM EDT

[#39]

Quoted:
HR obviously knows his shit. SH is an angry democrat (demonrat).

President Bush will win.

'Nuff said.

wrong on two of three counts.

1) HR doesn't know shit. he cuts/pastes bullshit polls and makes excuses when bush is "behind" (i.e. tailors them for this site).

2) i'm an angry american who is voting for bush.

3) correct.

Posted: 11/1/2004 10:24:01 AM EDT

[#40]

Quoted:
In any event, when Kerry loses tomorrow SH should have no reason to remain here and can run hoime to DUh to lick his "wounds."

that comment is skewed. i am the new age du troll poacher.

Posted: 11/1/2004 10:25:09 AM EDT

[#41]

Quoted:
My ass is clinched so tight you couldn't drive a nail up it with a sledgehammer

You know that line in Ferris Bueller's Day Off?

Perfectly descriptive of me at this point....

Posted: 11/1/2004 11:25:50 AM EDT

[#42]

Quoted:

1) HR doesn't know shit. he cuts/pastes bullshit polls and makes excuses when bush is "behind" (i.e. tailors them for this site).

2) i'm an angry american who is voting for bush.

3) correct.

whatever gets you through the night... say hi to Skinner and Elad for us...

Posted: 11/1/2004 11:27:23 AM EDT

[#43]

Ditto on some Grade A pucker factor...

I don't like this one bit

- BG

Posted: 11/1/2004 11:30:19 AM EDT

[#44]

Quoted:
Quoted:

1) HR doesn't know shit. he cuts/pastes bullshit polls and makes excuses when bush is "behind" (i.e. tailors them for this site).

2) i'm an angry american who is voting for bush.

3) correct.

whatever gets you through the night... say hi to Skinner and Elad for us...

what a dimwit. someone calls you out and this is all you can come up with.

Posted: 11/1/2004 11:31:39 AM EDT

[#45]

Why feed you? I get paid to do this for a living. What do you bring to the table?

Posted: 11/1/2004 11:34:49 AM EDT

[#46]

I work nights and usually don't get up before 10 a.m. In elections past, I have casually walked to the polls from my home at my leisure, entered the polling place and cast my vote with little if any waiting. Our state had early voting this year and the lines have been long to get in. Tomorrow morning, my alarm will sound at 6 am. I shall rise, gather my gear, and go wait in what I predict will be a long line. I shall cast my vote for GW. Not because I want to, but, for my countries sake, I have to.

It has been raining quite a bit here for the last week or so. Hopefully, it will be damned near a hurricane tomorrow.

Posted: 11/1/2004 11:36:07 AM EDT

[#47]

Quoted:
Why feed you? I get paid to do this for a living. What do you bring to the table?

why feed me? get paid to do what, spread misinformation? what do i bring to what table?

wtf?

your posts make no sense.

Posted: 11/1/2004 11:39:27 AM EDT

[#48]

Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
Quoted:
My ass is clinched so tight you couldn't drive a nail up it with a sledgehammer

Now there's a disturbing mental image!!!

He's got nothing on me--yesterday I tried to pull a needle out of mine with my tractor--and COULDN'T.

why did you have a needle up your ass?

Freak accident.

"Doc. It was a one in a million chance...."

Posted: 11/1/2004 11:39:49 AM EDT

[#49]

I've been working as a political and public relations consultant for a decade now. I've run everything from school board races to state supreme court races to state senate races, that's RUN... not worked on, and I have worked on congressional, governor's and presidential elections. So, what is it that you do? Other than troll here for DUh?

Posted: 11/1/2004 12:28:21 PM EDT

[#50]

Quoted:
I've been working as a political and public relations consultant for a decade now. I've run everything from school board races to state supreme court races to state senate races, that's RUN... not worked on, and I have worked on congressional, governor's and presidential elections. So, what is it that you do? Other than troll here for DUh?

ah, so you specialize in bullshit. that explains everything.

[ARCHIVED THREAD] - Don't Anybody Freak - Fox Poll (Page 1 of 2)

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