Man that is good news.

But unfortunately Kali-fornia has ceased to be a battleground state. Kali-fornia is comfortably in Kerry's pocket.

We could never really expect Kali to go Bush anyway.

[DUh mode on]

Lies!!  All lies!  It is a trick by the corporate media establishment to keep us from going out and voting.

[/DUh mode off]

Quoted: Man that is good news. But unfortunately Kali-fornia has ceased to be a battleground state. Kali-fornia is comfortably in Kerry's pocket.

What do you base that statement on? I'm sitting here in L.A., and it's still looking like a 2-pt gap to me.

Hiram', thanks for the heads-up guy but I'm frankly at the point where I'm ready to say F*CK ALL POLLS!

I'm not a polster and I have NO (As in none, nada, zilch, zip ect) idea what it is that these people use to determine who's gonna do what when but I DO know that the last couple of weeks have damn near killed me stressin' on this crap (The daily swings are the worst!) and I'm at the point where I don't believe anything anymore!

I "Think" Bush is gonna win 'cause a kerry victory is just too large a tradgedy for this country for me to really contemplate right now but GHOD it's hard to keep track of all the different methods they (The polsters) use.

Anyway, thanks for the update

I live in the valley and all us hay fed corn pickers are hardcore Bush supporters... Hell, I see maybe 1 Kerry/Edwards bumper sticker for every 10 bush/chaney stickers.  Of course when I visit the communist bay area that's reverse... so SF, LA and most everything else east of the Altimont are hardcore supid... er... Democrap.  It's reverse once you come down the mountain.... and we are growing... :)

Bush will win...'nuff said...

All my union buddys are gonna vote for kerry and it just amazes me they are even gun owning hunting types. What the hell is wrong with them?

Quoted: Quoted: Man that is good news. But unfortunately Kali-fornia has ceased to be a battleground state. Kali-fornia is comfortably in Kerry's pocket. What do you base that statement on? I'm sitting here in L.A., and it's still looking like a 2-pt gap to me.

For the simple fact that reg'd dems easily outnumber the repubs in Kali-fornia. I think it somehting like 60% Dems, 35% Repubs, and 5% others
=======================================================
http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-me-cap21oct21,1,3789598.column?coll=la-home-politics
GEORGE SKELTON CAPITOL JOURNAL
California Needs to Find a Way to Get Back Into the
Presidential Game
George Skelton

October 21, 2004

Feel ignored? Cut out of the action? Taken for granted
by one candidate? Considered worthless by another?
You're not imagining.

This is the most populous state in the nation — with
20% of the electoral votes needed to capture the White
House — but we're out of play in the presidential
election.

It's as if we'd already voted. We have, actually, in
the thinking of presidential campaign strategists. The
majority of us voted for Democrat Al Gore in 2000 when
he beat George W. Bush by 12 points. Polls
consistently have shown we're going to vote for the
Democratic candidate again.

Sen. John Kerry leads President Bush among likely
California voters by a lopsided 58% to 40%, according
to a new Times poll. In another fresh survey, by the
Public Policy Institute of California, Kerry leads
Bush by 51% to 39%.

So forget us, both candidates conclude. Don't waste
the time. Campaign in Arizona, Nevada and Oregon —
so-called battleground states. But don't bother
touching down in California or spending any money there.

Sign of the times....I saw a Bush/Cheney sign in Berkeley last weekend.

CW

I still can't believe 40+% of the country is voting for sKerry

Keep 'em coming, Hiram. It's gotten to the point that I trust your analysis over anything I see on TV.

Remember, I don't have access to Fox News here...

Meanwhile AP has conjured up a poll that they claim shows Kerry and Bush tied

Updated: 04:42 PM EDT Poll Shows Bush, Kerry in Dead Heat for Popular Vote By RON FOURNIER, AP WASHINGTON (Oct. 21) - President Bush and Sen. John Kerry are locked in a tie for the popular vote, according to an Associated Press poll. Voters seem open to change in the White House - most disapprove of the president's performance at home and in Iraq - but still harbor doubts about making the switch. Bush's strength continues to be in a perception by voters that he is the most qualified to protect the country, though his advantage has dwindled in recent weeks. Some 56 percent say the country is on the wrong track.         In the AP-Ipsos Public Affairs poll, the Democratic ticket of Kerry and Sen. John Edwards got support from 49 percent of those who said they were likely to vote, and the Republican team of Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney got 46 percent, within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. The Oct. 18-20 survey, released Thursday, included 976 likely voters. A spate of other polls show the race tied or give Bush a slight lead nationwide. The presidency will go to whoever gets a majority of the 538 Electoral College votes, a state-by-state chase that is just as close as national surveys. Likely voters are divided on many levels: They are just as likely to back Democrats for Congress as Republicans, with a 47-46 split favoring Democrats. That is essentially a tie. Twenty-four percent say they have already voted or will cast ballots before Election Day. Those who voted early were just as likely to back Kerry as Bush. A third of likely voters have been contacted by a candidate, campaign or outside group seeking support. Twenty-three percent said they were urged to back Kerry and 21 percent said they were asked to support Bush, a sign that two massive get-out-the-vote campaigns have had equal success contacting voters. Less than half, 47 percent, approve of Bush's job performance. A rating below 50 percent spells trouble for any incumbent, and Bush falls below that threshold on the economy, domestic affairs and handling Iraq. In each case, Bush's approval numbers have held steady since the AP-Ipsos poll taken after the first presidential debate.   Talk About It       · Chat | Post Messages     That Bush performance, roundly criticized on style and substance, helped lower the president's standing against Kerry from early September, when the incumbent led in the head-to-head matchup and had higher approval scores. A majority, 51 percent, support the president's handling of foreign policy and the war on terror. By 7 percentage points, they think he would protect the country better than Kerry. That is similar to the AP-Ipsos poll earlier in the month, but down from a 23-point advantage in March. Voters are evenly split on who would do the best job on Iraq. They find the candidates equally honest and likable, but Bush is viewed as much more decisive. By an 18-point margin, Kerry is seen as best suited to create jobs for workers. 10/21/04 12:37 EDT Copyright 2004 The Associated Press. The information contained in the AP news report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or otherwise distributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press. All active hyperlinks have been inserted by AOL.

Unfortunately, I am afraid that we may be facing the reverse of what we saw in 2000-----it ends with Bush winning the popular vote, but, loosing the electoral college.  The polls have been moving in GWB's direction, however, what I suspect is happening is that he is deepening his support among his base in statets which he already has----battleground states seem to be evenly divided, if not tipping in JFK's favor.

Seriously I know you guys like horseraces but these polls are complete bullshit. #1 On a daily basis they only sample like 1500 people. You gonna make a prediction of 150 million eligable voters based on 1500 people?? that's like .000001% of the electorate. #2 These polls are based on 'likely voters' Which is also total BS. That does'nt count First time voters either who were too young in 2000 or people who are now motivated to vote cause of all the shit going on in the world. So these are the wild cards. And also, A small fraction of Likely voters, about 7%, Are  still undecided. They won't make up their mind until they get in that damn booth. Jackoffs! Usually I like October, with Halloween and all, but now it's all election, election, election. UUUUUGGGHH!

Thanks for the daily reports, Hiram.

kerry sucks!

Quoted: I still can't believe 40+% of the country is voting for sKerry

That number is a bit closer to 50%, but remember half the people in this country are below average

Bush will win both the popular vote and electoral college by a comfortable number.