In 1994, the Senate voted to pass Feinstein's amendment banning semi-autos 56-43. In 2004, they voted again to renew it 52-47. In ten years, we gained four votes on this important RKBA issue in the Senate. It is progress; but slow progress.
This November, there are 7 critical Senate races where gun owners face a clear choice between a candidate who supports our rights and a candidate who opposes us and favors more bans. We could have a pro-RKBA majority in both the Senate and the House. With a pro-RKBA President (or at least one who hasn't vetoed anything in four years), we could actually pass some repeals. We could gain more pro-RKBA votes in this one election than we have in the last ten years; but first we have to get out and vote and put pro-gun candidates in office.
South DakotaPro-gun change to March vote if Republican wins: +1
Pro-gun change to March vote if Democrat wins: 0
Candidates:
John Thune (R) - GOA B rated. Opposes renewal of ban.
Tom Daschle (D) - GOA F rated. Supported ban renewal in March.
Status: 9/29 Rasmussen poll shows Thune leading Daschle by 4 points, despite Daschle having set new records for political spending per capita (Daschle had already spent $8.3 million with five months to go until the election). Thune also opened his lead from an earlier poll where he enjoyed a favorable/unfavorable edge of 13 points over Daschle in an earlier poll.
WashingtonPro-gun change to March vote if Republican wins: +1
Pro-gun change to March vote if Democrat wins: 0
Candidates:
George Nethercutt (R) - GOA A- rated. Opposes renewal of ban.
Patty Murray (D) - GOA F rated. Supported Kennedy Ammo ban, semiauto ban, and federal approval of private sales in March.
Status: Murray has a 3-2 spending advanatge on Nethercutt. He faces a hard fight; but he can win. His campaign could use some money to help offset Murray's edge as an incumbent though. As of 9/21, he was 12 points down to Murray. As of 10/4 same poling group shows him 19 down. Looking grim here...
ColoradoPro-gun change to March vote if Republican wins: 0
Pro-gun change to March vote if Democrat wins: -1
Candidates:
Pete Coors (R) - No rating from GOA; but the candidate participate in the "I'm the NRA" ad many years ago. He is also on record in the Rocky Mountain News as opposing the ban as well as supporting a repeal of the Lautenberg Amendment, Brady Bill, 1968 GCA and 1934 NFA. All words so far; but some pretty bold words.
Ken Salazar (D) - GOA D rated. Opposes ban renewal and signed MMM pledge card.
Status: Coors has a big campaign chest; but he had to fight a tough Republican primary battle that drained it. Salazar was annointed by the Dems and faced no real opposition, so he has money to burn. This race has been very close so far with both candidates within 1 point with a 4 point margin of error; but Coors has pulled ahead to a 5 point lead as of 9/23.
10/7 - Salazar dumped some of that campaign warchest into the fight and the race is once again tied. This is getting to be an expensive race for both candidates and Salazar has the money edge. Colorado - this is a Senator who supports a repeal of a lot of bad gun laws! Let's not let this one get defeated by a guy who supports banning your semi-autos.
South CarolinaPro-gun change to March vote if Republican wins: +1
Pro-gun change to March vote if Democrat wins: 0
Candidates:
Jim Demint (R) - GOA A rated (and GOA rates very few politicians as A), opposes ban
Inez Tenebaum (D) - No rating, former state education secretary, supports ban.
Status: A 10/6 poll shows Demint with a 6 point lead which is less than the 12-13 point lead he had been posting. The Dems own internal polling shows it a tie though; let's not take any chances here as this is one of only two GOA A rated candidates with a past voting record running for Senate this year.
LouisianaPro-gun change to March vote if Republican wins: +1
Pro-gun change to March vote if Democrat wins: 0 (likely guess as it would depend on which Democrat won)
Candidates:
David Vitter (R) - GOA A- rated.
John Kennedy (D), Chris John (D), Arthur Morrel (D) - no info
Status: As of 10/10 Vitter leads his closest opponent by 26%; but there is a big chunk of undecided voters (21%). Louisiana runs multiple candidates all at once on the ballot with a runoff if no candidate gets a decisive win. Vitter needs to clear 50% to avoid a runoff; but is currently only polling at 43%.
FloridaPro-gun change to March vote if Republican wins: +1
Pro-gun change to March vote if Democrat wins: 0
Candidates:
Mel Martinez (R) - On record opposing ban renewal
Betty Castor (D) - On record supporting Brady Campaign and ban renewal.
Status: 9/22 Gallup poll shows Castor leading by 6 points with a 4 point margin of error; but latest poll 10/3 shows Martinez with a 4 point lead! 10/6 poll by Republican firm shows Castor ahead by 3. This is going to be close and we need Martinez to win! Flordia gun owners, here is a clear choice between someone who trusts you with guns and someone who does not. Whether Martinez wins this state will hinge almost entirely on whether gun owners in Florida vote their guns and get their friends to do likewise.
North CarolinaPro-gun change to March vote if Republican wins: +1
Pro-gun change to March vote if Democrat wins: 0
Richard Burr (R) - GOA B- rated. Opposes ban.
Erskine Bowles (D) - GOA F rated, former Clinton Chief of Staff.
Status: As of 10/4, Burr has a two point lead! This means that Burr has gained 12 points on Bowles since early September. Again, this is another clear-cut choice for gun owners between somebody with a record of gun-grabbing and somebody who has supported them in Congress.
Here is a chance to pick up SIX votes against a semi-auto ban in the Senate plus establish a pro-gun majority in both houses. Right now pro-RKBA candidates are leading or tied in all but one of these seven elections. It is now up to us whether we can make the most of this opportunity.
Other elections of note:
Alaska: Lisa Murkowski (R) and Tony Knowles (D) share the same public stance on guns. The difference is Murkowski has a GOA rating of B- and a past voting record. Knowles statements so far are all talk and he will vote to put Kennedy, Feinstein and Schumer in control of the Senate Judiciary committee that hears gun control legislation. Knowles leads by three points with a four point margin of error.
Oklahoma: GOA has called this Senate race the most important election of 2004. The Dem candidate is pro-RKBA (GOA B rated) but the Republican candidate, Dr. Tom Coburn is GOA A+ (for comparison, the only other A+ GOA rating I could find was Rep. Ron Paul of Texas). The Dem candidate is good on guns; but like Knowles, he will vote to put Kennedy, Feinstein and Schumer in charge of the Senate Judiciary. Coburn took a brief narrow lead; but Carson is once again up by two points. However, that is well within the margin of error.